Guest essay by Eric Worrall
The Israeli health ministry is so worried about the spread of Coronavirus in the USA they want to close Israel to US visitors, though other Israeli government departments are pushing back over fears this could harm Israeli-US relations.
Israel weighs barring Americans, quarantine for Israelis coming back from US
Official says government blocking move thus far over fears it could harm economic, political ties with United States; National Security Council to take over coronavirus decisions
By TOI STAFF6 March 2020, 10:21 pm
Israel on Friday was reportedly considering barring entry to citizens of a number of additional countries and forcing returning Israelis to self-quarantine, including from the United States, amid fears over the spread of the coronavirus.
The Health Ministry has been pushing to add the US to a list of destinations from where travelers entering Israel must be quarantined for 14 days, but other unspecified ministries were blocking the move over concerns it could harm political and economic ties with Washington, an unnamed senior government official told Hebrew media.
Amid tensions between various branches of government over how to handle the crisis, Economy Minister Eli Cohen told Channel 12 that Israel’s National Security Council would begin coordinating the response to the virus from Friday.
…
There are fears that the US is not taking adequate steps to contain the spread, with not enough testing kits immediately available and doubts over the ability of the uninsured to be able to afford tests and treatment.
…
Beginning Friday morning, Israel banned non-nationals from Germany, Austria, France, Spain and Switzerland. Israelis returning from those countries were instructed Wednesday to enter self-quarantine for a period of 14 days after their last day in those nations. The decision applied retroactively to all who have come from those countries in the last 14 days.
…
Read more: https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-weighs-barring-americans-quarantine-for-israelis-coming-back-from-us/
The outbreak in California may have prompted this push, several counties in California are reporting evidence of community spread.
People should be checked before they leave the country they are in, the Australian problem came from a doctor who caught the virus in the usa, same as iran etc etc, it all links back to china.
Companies will not be staying in china after this virus has cleared up, one virus has shown that you can not put all of your eggs in one basket.
I read yesterday that bill gates is paying a belgium company to find a vaccine/cure, the company has the quickest testing times in the world, weeks instead of months…
Just like sars or ebola, they will find a cure/vaccine, but I personally feel the harm has been done to china already.
How do you want to check?
Who should check?
Americans are absolutely unable to manage this outbreak.
Failed testing kits, no ideas how to quarantine people.
Probably, the virus already spreading widely through the US with hindreds of thousands infected.
Very soon the U.S. will be worse than Iran.
I understand Israelis.
Quarantining humans that have symptoms simply doesn’t work on airborne viruses with long incubation periods (this one up to 14 days allegedly) with the person being contagious during incubation. As with all respiratory viruses, 80%+ either present no symptoms or are so mild as to be ignored but these people are still contagious. Testing, to date, is not sensitive that merely infected can be identified. And these strains of flu and cold viruses can’t be detected with current technology in any meaningful manner until some time after they emerge.
Then there’s the modern world travel which far outpaces detection and response. If people bother to check airline flight schedules, Wuhan, for example, is one of the three primary manufacturing, transportation centers of China. They had daily (as i every-single-day) direct (as in non-stop) between Wuhan and Sydney, New York, San Francisco, London, Paris, Rome, Dubai, even Moscow. These are large planes, 200+ passengers and crew, all in a confined area, close contact, ideal for spreading flu and cold viruses. Plus regional flights to places like Seoul, Tokyo, Hong Kong, etc. Factor in the virus had been spreading for three to four months before the Western nations were even aware. Accounting for the regional flights and their connecting with other major airports – daily – you have thousands of infected, contagious people circulating through the largest airports on the planet — for months.
These are some of the reason all animals traveling internationally (dogs, cats, liberals, etc.) are quarantined by most nations for up to six months so that allowances for the lags in incubation, testing accuracy, etc. The greens, etc., love this since it means nearly eliminating travel? Not so much for much of anyone else.
Even this round of bat sourced SARS virus (at least the third in modern times) may attain the shut the planet down for six months panic status what with all the hysteria generated by the super-fear culture and political agendas of the media. But by the time it could take hold, facts on the ground simply won’t support it. After all, who has even heard about CDC’s report last week that in the US 136 CHILDREN have died from Influenza A and B along with about 20,000 other deaths and millions of infections?
Wuhan should remind people, especially those visiting this site, that whipping up hysteria is advantageous for those with agendas. The human caused global warming that will kill everything is the closest example. And that one has been going on for decades even in the face of facts.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/americans-are-hard-to-quarantine/
Without test kits, people just die of “flu”. Looks the same, kills the same. Virus looks different, that’s about it. Actually, testing adds to the already insane response to this. Maybe if people learned personal hygiene and didn’t spit in other’s faces when standing too close to together to talk…..The treatment of SARS-Cov2 is the same as flu, with some panic and hysteria thrown in. I swear, people live in the dark ages…..
I suppose dying of a “new” flu gets your relatives on TV to wail and moan, but dead from flu, “new” flu, either way, you’re still dead. People are crazy.
“I swear, people live in the dark ages…..”
There’s a video floating around of some citizens of a city chasing and beating a man they accused of being from Wuhan. This isn’t it, but …
Hundreds of thousands????
We barely have 100,000 world wide.
We really have no idea how many people have the disease worldwide because very few are being tested. Look at Italy, where the number of infected people exploded over the last few days because a serious case turned up in hospital and they started testing a lot of people.
Iran was infecting the whole world at a time when they claimed there were only a few dozen infected people in the country. Someone caught it on a transit flight through China when the Chinese were claiming only a few dozen people were infected there.
Clearly both countries had far more infected than they were claiming.
The only places we can be fairly sure the numbers are valid are the countries like Singapore and Taiwan, where they’ve tested extensively and haven’t seen people unexpectedly turning up at hospitals with no links to other cases.
1. There are 100,000 CONFIRMED cases.
2. Unless countries are able to contain the spread the numbers will accelerate rapidly.
Unless you are claiming that the official numbers are too small by a factor of 1000, then the claim that there are hundreds of thousands of cases in the US alone is nothing more than baseless fear mongering.
Whether or not we get to that point in the future, does not justify claiming that we are at that level already.
That was supposed to be in response to MarkG.
And we started with 1 or 2 states infected. There is a geometric progression of transfer.
Now 25-27 states have positive cases.
The claim was that there are 100’s of thousands already infected in the US.
Official numbers for today, several days after the claim was made is only 566.
Even if the official numbers are a lagging indicator, it’s still impossible to get from there to “100’s of thousands” in the US.
Hi Sunny, – A SARS vaccine was tested on animals, but not humans. It was injected into test animals & researchers saw some data where symptoms got worse. This probably was one of the reasons it didn’t get deployed.
As I understand things, there is no corona-virus vaccine actually ready for humans & SARS is a kind of corona-virus. Ebola is a type of hemorrhagic fever inducing virus elongated in shape & there is an Ebola vaccine.
A SARS vaccine was tested on humans in China. It completed Phase I, then went on the Phase II. No information about the results in Phase II andpft no word about going to Phase III. I would imagine the trial was discontinued. Perhaps because SARS died out. That said, animal trials are always a first step in any human vaccine
In China if you fly in from an infected zone they PCR test you.
only way to SLOW this thing is to test, test, test, and social distancing
and you need to slow it. can’t stop it, but you can slow it.
Some folks will panic. other nuts will deny.
wise folks take pre caution
Not denying. Not panicking. Not worrying.
like I told you guys weeks ago.
prepare
wash your hands
test.
And some clowns at WUWT see that as panic
Am I prepared?
https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1236888570394071040
There are only 2 numbers that we can know for sure for each country: the population in the country and the number of deaths from the virus. How many who are registered sick or healthy are extremely dependent on everyone who is sick being tested etc.
How many who die per million in the country is also the only number that has practical significance. Whether you get Corona hard or easy means little as long as you survive.
In China, it has killed 2.17 per million, in South Korea 1.05, in Iran 3.5 and in Italy 7.0 per million.
Influenza killed 314 per million last year e.g in Norway. Thus, ordinary flu is about 100 times as dangerous. In the United States, that number is 103.
“Influenza killed 314 per million last year e.g in Norway. Thus, ordinary flu is about 100 times as dangerous. In the United States, that number is 103.”
With a broad margin of error, your point is taken. Except that it’s still this year. We can only make these sorts of comparisons when the time periods are the same. Perhaps a monthly figure would be more useful. But there is still the issue of seasonal skew.
I simply cannot understand why we all panic about this virus. It is fatal in only ca. 2% of cases – mostly older, frail persons. That is about the same fatality rate as an ordinary influenza virus. So this year we will just have double the usual number of fatalities.
I think all countries should immediately return to normal behaviour. Traveling as usual. Tourism as usual. Trade as usual. We all stand a slightly higher chance of death. Why worry. Grin and bear it. Panic spreads because more people will die because of this illness – but if you think about it, the magnitude of the number of fatalities does not really matter. We all just die one death each – and none of us can avoid this happening some time, any time.
It depends which strain you catch.
Look at the videos from Iran (on twitter).
Young men fall down and die on streets.
Well, may be, they were licking some shrine…
But anyway.
Their PM of Tehran, Ms Fatemeh Rahbar, died on Friday. She was 55.
On schedule we are now getting into mutated virus epidemiology. What perfect cover for not doing real epidemiology that looks at all disease causing factors, rather than just the “new” wild-and-crazy mutating bug.
For example, Iran has an endemic problem with tuberculosis. Are patients there who present with symptoms of acute pneumonia tested for TB, or is it merely assumed that because they test positive for WuFlu they have a viral pneumonia, as has been done so many times before (e.g., AIDS)? It is impossible to distinguish Community Acquired Pneumonia (CAD) from tuberculous pneumonia simply based on clinical and radiological criteria; a TB test has to be done. If a person has TB and is treated for viral pneumonia the consequences can be fatal.
“I simply cannot understand why we all panic about this virus. It is fatal in only ca. 2% of cases – mostly older, frail persons. That is about the same fatality rate as an ordinary influenza virus. So this year we will just have double the usual number of fatalities.”
because your healthcare system will be overrun by the severe cases.
2% deaths wont stress your morturaries.
10-20% cases requiring ICU will use up the open beds in short order.
For once I agree with you. It seems clear to me there is absolutely no way to stop it spreading. The question is when, not if, you will be exposed to it.
The only hope the healthcare industry has of not being overwhelmed to the point of collapse, is for the spread to be slow enough to be equal to or less than the turnover rate of those needing hospitalization. One bed can be used by four patients over a three month period, each patient requiring three weeks of hospitalization. Four patients simultaneously, could result in one having a bed, and three laid out in the hallway.
And it is also critical that the healthcare providers, themselves, do not fall victim en masse.
For the individual, delaying succumbing to the virus may result in better treatment, the possibility of a vaccine, or perhaps a cure being developed.
Wash your hands. Stay home as much as possible. There are worse things than reading a book or binge watching TV, and getting the coronavirus is one of them.
Why is it being assumed that this pathogen will affect the US populace differently than other pathogens floating around do? Perhaps it will mostly afflict those who would have been afflicted anyways by something else, resulting in no dramatic load on hospital resources. So for example, instead of people being hospitalized for flu complications they are hospitalized for WuFlu complications, resulting in no net increase.
Because it is new so no one has immunity and because it is HIV and SARS.
No one has immunity to cold and flu viruses every year, and no one freaks out about it. The SARS/HIV thing is just the stuff of science fiction.
New yes, but not quite SARS and most definitely not HIV which is a retrovirus.
“Perhaps it will mostly afflict those who would have been afflicted anyways by something else, resulting in no dramatic load on hospital resources. ”
the data show the rate of hospitalization is greater. be prepared.
Yes, people are already hunkering down. I flew out of Chicago on Wednesday and seats were about a third unoccupied. I haven’t seen that since after 9-11.
I went skiing yesterday and their were hardly any lift lines and the slopes were pretty much wide open and this is early in the Spring break season. On a normal weekend day, lift lines are long and slopes are somewhat crowded. It isn’t just stocking up on toilet paper, the public is making behavioral changes that will actually slow down the spread of this virus.
Also, large conventions are being canceled. For example, the American Physical Society just canceled its Denver meeting.
Exactly right! Of course, such measures require protracted isolation.
Food, fuel and self-proclaimed my friends.
ER_____self protection.
Steven Mosher
March 8, 2020 at 12:22 am
—————–
Maybe I am wrong Mosher.
But in consideration of how you playing the numbers there,
in consideration of the 2%, it consist in consideration of the already identified and processed cases,
kinda of a projection in relation to the entire population.
And also the point that the figure reduced from the first days, tells us that your math not quite
possibly right.
There is many tangents effecting an outcome when moving from a small number of people to the entire population(s), especially in consideration of time. (and the natural response of the bigger “pool”)
As you yourself say, it can’t be stopped…
And the tests can only slow down the panic, the mismanagement and reducing possibly the fatality, and severity.
But then, only if such tests properly and professionally conducted.
The Spanish flue, a very severe and devastating one.
At the end of the day, the fatality rate high, but far lower than from the first stages.
(in the consideration of the population)
And even then hospitals did cope fairly well enough under the circumstances.
(when also many poor nations, had no much medical structures to deal with such as a problem)
Only trying a say, that is not such as straight forward simplicity.
Definitely not a cause for panic.
For example, people running to hospitals and medical centers for testing, simply due to panic, may overload such structures and make things worse.
Any way, just saying, Mosher.
cheers
“Maybe I am wrong Mosher.
But in consideration of how you playing the numbers there,
in consideration of the 2%, it consist in consideration of the already identified and processed cases,
kinda of a projection in relation to the entire population.”
1. 2% was the number given by the person I was responding to.
2. There are many ways to calculate, estimate, project, CFR. the range is
quite large and depends on many factors.
3. my main response is about the % of CRITICAL CASES.. those requiring beds.
4. Like I said, even 2% of deaths, wont overwhelm mortuaries. stack em high.
“And also the point that the figure reduced from the first days, tells us that your math not quite
possibly right.
There is many tangents effecting an outcome when moving from a small number of people to the entire population(s), especially in consideration of time. (and the natural response of the bigger “pool”)”
1. the math is never right. there will ALWAYS be objections and uncertainties
2. you do the best you can to make a transparent projection, noting uncertainties.
3. If you like do the math backwards
A) number of beds 931,000
B) number of Open beds ~ 325,000
4. Now calculate: if 10% of cases require hospitalization, 4 Million cases will
overwhelm your system
“As you yourself say, it can’t be stopped…
And the tests can only slow down the panic, the mismanagement and reducing possibly the fatality, and severity.
But then, only if such tests properly and professionally conducted.”
1. Yup
2. Funny how posters here beat me up a few days ago when we were at 68 cases
and I told you all it was from lack of testing
Definitely not a cause for panic.
1. Panic is never a choice
2. Denial is stupid
3. Plan and prepare and take proper precautions.
4. risk management is individual
Yes, do the Math. Even if the infection rate is only 1-2; the hospitals will be overrun in 2-3 months.
Slowing the spread will increase mortality at the expense of time.
How exactly does slowing the spread increase mortality.
If it’s slowed enough to prevent the overwhelming of medical services, that would drop mortality.
Mark,
Typo. Slowing will decrease the mortality rate, as it prevents overwhelming of medical facilities.
Slowing the spread also provides more time for vaccines and treatments to be developed. Both of those will drop mortality rates.
hospital beds mate.
So, if the virus spread to everyone, and 10% of people require a hospital bed (2-3 weeks)
Thats 100 beds per thousand. USA has 2.8 beds per thousand. 65% of which are currently
occupied.
1st: Japan, 13.1 beds per 1000 inhabitants
2nd: Korea, 12.8 beds
18th: China, 4.3 beds
31st: USA, 2.8 beds
its not the deaths mate. its those who get very sick and dont die.
So, if the virus spread to everyone, and 10% of people require a hospital bed (2-3 weeks)”
Supposedly 80% of infectees have only a mild form of the disease. So that brings the number of beds to 20 per 1000. Even that would not occur at the same time.
Using your premise and Mosher’s numbers: there is one free bed per 1000 people (35% of 2.8 beds) in the US. If twenty per 1000 need hospitalization, and each requires three weeks hospitalization, then you need to spread the infection rate over 60 weeks to keep up with hospitalizing those who need it. Right?
Let’s hope it doesn’t get to that point, but it’s clear we must make every effort to slow the spread.
GregB March 8, 2020 at 6:31 am
Greg it is a simple math problem
Here in the USA we have had 15 million flu cases so far. with over 8,000 deaths
https://www.contagionlive.com/news/us-flu-cases-climb-to-15-million-with-54-pediatric-deaths-recorded-in-201920-season
now if we get a similar number that leaves us with 3 million people needing not just hospital beds but intense care.
If this virus maintains it’s pace the medical system breaks down by May day.
The trick is to slow it so we can get into the summer before things fall apart. If it is happy with summer type weather all bets are off. If the hospitals are overwhelmed we well lose a larger portion of that 3 million
michael
yup.
the math is brutal, If you dont slow it from the 6 day doubling path, your health system is toast
Pretty sure if the thing follows the 6 day doubling through march, folks will learn exponentials
And that’s just the first wave. The second wave that will arrive in the fall will be much worse.
Summer heat arrives pretty early in some parts of the US. Could the deep south look for a break in late April, perhaps?
Steven Mosher
March 8, 2020 at 12:32 am
——————
Mosher,
Why the 10% of people requiring a hospital bed, would have to be for 2-3 weeks in hospital beds?
Does it take so long a time to recover in such cases?
Asking you this as I do not know, whether that being the case or whether you making it up.
cheers
“Does it take so long a time to recover in such cases?”
data I have looked at suggests 2-3 Weeks.
Steven Mosher
March 8, 2020 at 10:11 pm
———-
My guess is that your data that you rely at is definitely non compatible with the condition of “the virus spread to everyone”, as you have put it…
Kinda of a mock up, by you…
that standing as a guess or assumption of mine Mosh… but never the less only due to your taken position.
Really really very cheap answer by you, Mosh,
if I may put it this way.
Mosh,
if I can put it this way, as per my stand;
suggestions and assumptions consist as the “father” and/or “mother”, or “parent”
of all possible fuck ups there ever to be considered.
You see, Mosher, in the considerable of most penetrating effort there in consideration of science and technology,
we still not at the satisfactory clause of a viral infection detection been possible outside of the incubation period clause, or it’s meaning…
That technically still happens to be a fundamental indisputable period assessment clause… if that even makes any sense to you thus far!
We can not detect or consider a detection, in the proposition of a tests,
in any possible way of a viral infection, outside the incubation period stance or (range)… period….as period fundamentally it could be.
Still, in this proposed claim, your math do not mean much in the consideration of nature and natural order.
Still very brutal, very much evaluated, as per merits of silliness there,
but also definitely meaningless at the end of the day… with very much tied clause for panic.
Ok, a silly or meaningless claim of person like me… but if I may put a claim here as per merit of,,,
as for some point of valuation it will be some thing like;
as by the end of April, all this schist will end up as like;
as what the fuck was all this about, this all silly crazy noise… and all this crazy panic there.
Mosher, in my silly book, a pandemic in there, at a proposition of 2% fatality rate, at the very early stage, in such a condition, literally translates and consist as a very well implemented natural “vaccination”…
Nature and natural order of all things there is and happens to be very weird,
or at the very least it will appear as very weird,
especially if “we” keep failing to understand it.
Again and again, Mosher, with all best technology, and achievement in science and beauty of it all, still no any way of a effective workable detectable or testable method of a viral infection outside the clause or accommodation of the incubation period stance or meaning…
The testing,
and more or less testing in consideration of every viral infection relies very heavily in the consideration of incubation period of the virus.
And I think, as far as this stand and persist, as a given, indisputably so,
still due to such as, I got the luxury of stating that your math completely meaningless as put and propagated…
The human “blood pool” will respond naturally,
and effectively arrest the hazard penetration of this viral infection…
I am not surprised at all, any more, even at this stage, that we humans do not care to consider that nature and natural order propagates as effective in the clause of preemptive processing.
Too much maybe to expect, in consideration there.
Mosh, with all due respect, still your math sucks, very badly as far as I can tell,
in consideration of this issue,
yes very brutal but still brutally meaningless… never the less non realistic… as far as my understanding permits…
and I like to think and flirt with the idea that you get the point..
Do not mean to upset or insult you, but you must understand, your numbers as played and your math there, really brutally punchy, but never the less non realistic…
In the end of the day, no one ever will be blamed for the lack of knowing!
cheers
Steven Mosher
March 8, 2020 at 10:11 pm
———–
I would not think that the data you have looked at will reflect well in the case of pandemic.
cheers
Andy,
So am I to understand that you would willingly enter a lottery where there was no prize for a winner, but had a two in a Hundred chance of you having to forfeit your life ?
Fanakapan – All eight billions of us, whether we like it or not, are in a lottery where we have 100% chance of dying.
True, long enough timeline, and survival going to zero, and all that.
I’d have to suspect that the doctor fellow in China who died, late 30’s ? probably expected to be in the game for a few more years ? As indeed will all those who succumb to nCov who are not in their late 80’s ?
Whilst the ‘Official’ version presently has it that victims will all be close to the exit ramp, we may yet be surprised at the numbers who fail to welcome their demise as eagerly as you would have us believe they should.
Young medical workers who get less than 4 hours of sleep per day for weeks/months on end, as is happening now in China, essentially can find themselves in the same immunological health as the advanced in age, or worse.
“So this year we will just have double the usual number of fatalities”
What evidence do you have to support this claim? How do you know that people who succumb to this disease aren’t already in a state of health in which they will succumb anyways to familiar pathogens?
Andy,
2% is an overestimation. Korea has a cfr of 0.6%. They have tested more than anyone. Given the fact that most cases are mild the real fatality rate is probably much less than 0.6% of all those infected.
The fuss is because
1. It’s new and there are uncertainties.
2. No context is given and alarmists are by nature innumerate.
3. We have become timid in the golden age without wars or pestilence.
Not sure if I agree with your conclusion. But I see your point.
I think the primary concern should be the stress it could put on our healthcare facilities.
It will be responsible not only for direct deaths, but indirect deaths; people dying from other conditions which would be survivable with proper treatment, but don’t receive it because facilities, equipment, personnel, and beds are overflowing with virus patients.
“Korea has a cfr of 0.6%.”
Korean patients are younger. The mean age for deaths in Italy is 81, whereas a very large number of the Korean patients are from a cult where most members are much younger than that.
If it only affected twenty-somethings in the US, the results would be no worse than the flu. Since it’s been spreading rapidly through nursing homes, the death rate there could be 50% or more.
https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=&bid=0030
click on
178 367 additional cases are confirmed
for precise demographic data
GregB – you are spot on in your three points listed. I particularly like point no. 3. Never in human history has a whole generation been more anxious, more hand-wringing, more fearful, more panicky about the future of themselves and about humankind (now even the future of the globe!). A far cry from the courageous, self-confident, morally strong generations following the European Enlightenment.
And yes, perhaps the main reason (as you suggest) is that all this generation has ever experienced is “a golden age without wars and pestilence”. Interesting thought.
So far about 9 people in the US out of 337 million? I’m sure more than that get struck by lightning, bitten by rabid dogs, or have their eyes pecked out by pet chickens, by why spoil a good Media-Generated Pseudo-Event with common sense?
9? opps, now it is 22.
a few days ago when the case count was at 68 with zero deaths a bunch of know nothings at WUWT
asked me what the mortality rate was, and they blathered on about low number of cases
Say hello to mr. exponential function.
hello!!
here is a clue. IF you do nothing, mr exponential will smack you with some quick
lessons in R naught. he will smack you right upside your dense head.
IF
YOU
DO
NOTHING.
this is not to panic you. panic is choice you should never make
this is to inform you, so you can prepare and plan.
dont listen to the happy talk or the alarmist talk.
The math is simple. do nothing and mr exponential will school you hard.
Mr Exponential doesnt care about your hunches and feelings and doubts
questions.
he is the honey badger.
dont panic. dont ignore. prepare.
Andy, While my gut says you’re right and everyone could just go about their lives normally, once you have a panic, actions need to be taken that increase public confidence. Otherwise the effects of panic will cause more harm than the virus. (Especially with the demonrats doing all they can to fan the fears about Trumpvirus).
Prudent measures to slow infection can’t be worse than letting the panic build. Also in the interest of accuracy, ordinary influenza kills only about 0.2% of those diagnosed, not 2%.
What we face in the next few weeks is not an exponential growth of infection, but rather an exponential growth in test results detecting a mostly-benign endemic infection that has not been contained.
The virus has most likely already spread widely with largely benign effects. The more testing that is done, the more we will detect what has already happened and the worse will be the panic. So extensive testing is just the ticket to ramp up panic and tank the economy. Well, something has to be done to destroy the economy, otherwise Trump wins again.
tty, virtually every province in China has deaths and active cases. How does that square with your claim that their quarantine stopped the spread?
Look at https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 and see for yourself.
That percentage claim is incorrect.
The sites promoting that take their percentage of the total infected, not those who have completed the disease’s process.
Properly, those recovered and those perished are added together. The the total of those perished is divided by the total of perished plus recovered.
Not can one trust any numbers proclaimed by tyrannical countries.
China? Not a chance!
Iran? Not a chance!
Keep in mind the unavailability of functional COVID-19 test kits and how easy it is to declare the deaths as influenza deaths.
Some examples, as of today 3/8/2020 1PM:
South Korea: Confirmed 7,314; Deaths 50; Recovered 135
Total of who completed the disease process 185. Percentage of those who died 27%
Italy: Confirmed 5,883; Deaths 233; Recovered 589.
Total of who completed the disease process 185. Percentage of those who died 28%
Covid-19 is deadly.
Covid-19 is highly infectious.
Covid-19 is not the far deadlier Ebola, but that does not mean treat Covid-19 lightly.
The current method of quarantines where doctors tell those identified as infected to “Go home, self isolate” is extremely ineffective.
Unfortunately, the entire governmental approaches will prevent researchers from determining Covid-19 deadliness till well after this pandemic passes. Nor may researchers ever get a true picture of Covid-19 patients versus influenza patients.
Wow, you’re a real bundle of sunshine. Fear and loathing…..
I think your numbers are something of an exaggeration. The criteria for a patient to be declared as ‘recovered’ is quite robust so it takes time.
Secondly the number of CONFIRMED cases is not ALL cases. There are many, many people who have had the virus but didn’t realise they had it. The CONFIRMED cases have a disproportionate number of sever cases.
“There are many, many people who have had the virus but didn’t realise they had it.”
Or suspect they have it but aren’t particularly bothered and don’t want to have their life disrupted.
I heard recently of a suspected case. Patient X was feeling unwell for a day or two but nothing specific, mildly feverish, aching limbs. He got on a plane and went to the Philippines. He went south to a beach resort. By now he had a mild fever, dry cough, malaise, aching muscles. He went to Manila and stayed in a five star hotel for a few days. His condition improved but all the while, he was wandering around, having meals in restaurants, coughing and spreading his germs. His description of the illness was, “this is weird”, and “never had anything like this”. So it might have been the corona. It might not.
Then he got on a plane, after completing a declaration confirming that he hadn’t been to China, and went to another part of the country. He stayed in a beach resort for a few days where he recovered: altogether ten days mildly unwell. He was never tested.
How many people would there be like Patient X? My guess is that the world is full of them.
ATheoK, the problem with your analysis is that it’s known that many people who get covid-19 only get mild symptoms which may go unreported and undetected. No argument with you that China’s numbers are untrustworthy. Both the total number of cases and the number of deaths attributed to the virus are likely to be undercounted. It’s more likely though that it’s the total number of cases that is being undercounted more than the total deaths because of the cases of mild symptoms and asymptomatic cases that never get recorded.
The vast majority of those who catch this disease are never tested, because they aren’t sick enough to need to go to the hospital.
That is about the same fatality rate as an ordinary influenza virus.
It’s not. ‘Normal’ flu a fatality rate of around 0.1%. The other problem is that no-one has immunity to it and it is more infectious than normal flu. The combination of these factors could mean that healthcare systems are completely overwhelmed in the coming months.
“It is fatal in only ca. 2% of cases”
In Italy current mortality is well over 5%. And that is an optimistic figure calculated as:
number of dead/number of infected
Actual figure is higher since you don’t die as soon as you are infected. The number of fatalties has been going up very sharply the last few days as hospitals are being overwhelmed.
“There are many, many people who have had the virus but didn’t realise they had it.”
Or suspect they have it but aren’t particularly bothered and don’t want to have their life disrupted.
I heard recently of a suspected case. Patient X was feeling unwell for a day or two but nothing specific, mildly feverish, aching limbs. He got on a plane and went to the Philippines. He went south to a beach resort. By now he had a mild fever, dry cough, malaise, aching muscles. He went to Manila and stayed in a five star hotel for a few days. His condition improved but all the while, he was wandering around, having meals in restaurants, coughing and spreading his germs. His description of the illness was, “this is weird”, and “never had anything like this”. So it might have been the corona. It might not.
Then he got on a plane, after completing a declaration confirming that he hadn’t been to China, and went to another part of the country. He stayed in a beach resort for a few days where he recovered: altogether ten days mildly unwell. He was never tested.
How many people would there be like Patient X? My guess is that the world is full of them.
“In Italy current mortality is well over 5%”
5% of what?
It beggars belief how many people take the number of confirmed, tested cases as the total number of cases in the population. That confusion is the source of the panic and confusion, no doubt.
tty
March 8, 2020 at 1:40 pm
————–
Please do not take this as matter of fact, simply just a cheap opinion of mine.
But when it comes to Italy, non disputably a modern democracy,
still the guys there in charge and in governmental position and political leadership,
in most of them cases will make Michael Avenatti look like a proper saint or an innocent sweet angel… 🙂
cheers
Like I told you guys before, the US is screwing up testing.
There was a working test. rather than get that out in the field and starting fast, the CDC decided
to re invent the wheel and make a gold plated test. wrong!
Nobody taught these guys about parallel paths.
Speed is the key in slowing this thing down. Exponential growth is a bitch, and if you dont slow it down
your healthcare system will get overwhelmed.
https://quillette.com/2020/03/06/dont-test-dont-tell-the-bureaucratic-bungling-of-covid-19-tests/
We’re about to discover that for the last 60 years, public health has become the go to occupation for the minimally qualified, and politically malleable.
Here in the UK we should already know that, due to the bullet that was apparently dodged over the Mad Cow/vCJD episode, which witnessed the Chief Veterinary Officer assuring the public that BSE could not cross to humans. Alas, the memory of the public is a short lived flower 🙂
On now we have Mosher the health expert, are you a scientist in that field as well?
Mosher does give reasonable comments at times.
But not like a clock that is right twice a day.
True, not like a stopped clock. He’s like a malfunctioning clock that runs at a random speed and on very rare occasions is not wrong.
Currently he’s spouting the npr-DNC line to ramp up the panic. Only by precipitating a recession can Trump be defeated. And the dems are more than happy to help ruin the economy to get elected. If they don’t get elected, how are they going to implement their plans to ruin the economy?
Mosher’s paycheck does not depend on their being a panic over covid-19.
That’s unfair (and ad hominem). If Mosher were to serve you an omelet would you refuse it on the basis that he were not a chef?
No, based on a reasonable expectation from previous experience, he probably is not a good cook either.
Mosher has proven that he’s willing to leave his integrity behind if the cause is glorious enough. So it’s natural to doubt him in other areas.
No apparently he knows more that the CDC now and they are all wrong .. his evidence some blogger.
Now only a couple of days ago he was complaining when someone else was using a blog. Which was also similar when he was complaining that someone had an online science degree even though he himself has no science degree, it was to hard to even get one online for him.
He is two-faced and I am calling him for what he is.
The CDC have proved to be of no more worth that the WHO thus far in the emerging pandemic.
Change my mind. 🙂
I would first have to care what you think to want to convince you. You have given nothing beyond a general “I think”, no data, no facts … so I will leave your esoteric argument and beliefs.
And, if he is wrong, what has his advice cost you: a few hundred bucks in food and ammo that can be consumed regardless of the outcome.
You are spot on Steven. I watched all 2 hours of the 20/20 Special last night with horror as for example the worst hotspot in the U.S. , the Seattle nursing home, conducted business as usual with family members coming and going and regular staff doing their best to maintain order. In other words, no CDC, no hazmat suits, no government oversight…just everyone standing close by watching death approaching. I couldn’t stop screaming at the TV. We are so not ready for any of this. At this rate by May we are really in for it concerning hospital capacity.
Calm down. Unless you’re elderly or have a compromised immune system, there’s not a lot of risk. If you are in a high-risk category, then just take extra precautions. Stay home, wash hands with soap and water after any contact with others. This too will pass.
Rich, the truth is I am calm. But also I am frustrated . In a recent (very good) article posted here by Larry Kummer @ Faubius Maximus he made a very timely point that while not agreeing with the methods of the Chinese he none the less agreed wholeheartedly with the effect of the serious quarantine measures they had taken. Further that this is the one thing we needed to emulate if we had any realistic hope of mitigating the spread of this very contagious virus. The question was left hanging…will we or won’t we have the wit and the will to do it. My exasperation here is that so far we seem to have neither.
Not to be unduly contentious, Stacy, but that’s just a silly argument. China utterly failed to prevent the spread with their quarantine methods. They have cases all over the country and are the ultimate source of every other case. In all likelihood nothing will prevent its spread because most people only experience mild symptoms and some may be asymptomatic, spreading it unknowingly.
Vulnerable populations will need to avoid contact for awhile. Testing won’t solve anything either. It will likely just increase panic as we detect pre-existing infections but report them as a spread of new infections.
Here’s an interesting article that was highlighted on realclearpolitics today that makes a lot of sense to me
https://www.worth.com/coronavirus-data-is-still-misleading-heres-what-the-latest-numbers-dont-tell-you/
That only works if you have a surveillance network in place before the pathogen has spread. In this case, it had probably already spread around the world even before China started quarantining. So draconian quarantines end up doing far more harm than good when it’s popping up all around you from who knows where. It just turns into unproductive chaos and nonsense.
“China utterly failed to prevent the spread with their quarantine methods. ”
I would say that they were remarkably successful. China did stop the spread.
However whether they can also prevent a second wave coming back in from abroad seems uncertain.
“I would say that they were remarkably successful. China did stop the spread. ”
China may have stopped the spread in China which only happened because they threatened the doctors who first reported the disease rather than did anything about it.
In the meantime, they’ve probably exported it to pretty much every country in the world.
The nursing home in question has about 60 residents and 18 CDC employees have been providing on-site technical support. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/07/coronavirus-washington-kirkland-life-care-center-deaths
In these kind of situations, help doesn’t arrive immediately, however, it’s obvious that the reality of the situation has improved.
This is just unfathomable and unbridled scaremongering at the alarmist media’s best. Don’t travel if you don’t need to. Don’t engage in physical contact, this virus is NOT air borne. Face masks are useless. When going for a piss or a crap, wash your hands afterwards. The number of people I see at work go in to the “thunder box”, have a shit, and walk right out with out washing their hands is disgusting. Mostly Indian men. I also see them washing their faces and rinsing their mouths out in communal, work place, kitchen sinks. It’s disgusting!
Patrick,
Whilst most of what you say is no doubt correct, there is a reason why ncov19 was first given the appendage ‘Novel’.
That is to say its entirely new, and that none of us have encountered it before. The same cannot be said of what comes off the south ends of north facing humans, of which we have had thousands of years with which to become resistant to some degree or another.
It is actually called SARS Cov-2 because SARS-CoV-2 belongs to the same Betacoronavirus genus. It has genetic differences.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4494236/
“In the last 20 years, novel non-seasonal influenza viruses have emerged, most of which have originated from birds. Despite their apparent inability to cause pandemics, with the exception of H1N1 swine influenza virus, these viruses still constitute a constant threat to public health.”
Be afraid constantly after reading this…???
From the CDC:
“The 1968 pandemic was caused by an influenza A (H3N2) virus comprised of two genes from an avian influenza A virus, including a new H3 hemagglutinin, but also contained the N2 neuraminidase from the 1957 H2N2 virus. It was first noted in the United States in September 1968. The estimated number of deaths was 1 million worldwide and about 100,000 in the United States. Most excess deaths were in people 65 years and older. The H3N2 virus continues to circulate worldwide as a seasonal influenza A virus. Seasonal H3N2 viruses, which are associated with severe illness in older people, undergo regular antigenic drift.”
How many remember the REAL pandemic from 1968 with the Hong Kong flu???? Yet that was a true pandemic. Fear is not our friend and history is not something we learn from. Containing disease is virtually impossible in today’s world and it’s pretty much a myth that it was ever containable, especially airborne ones. Good hygiene and smart practices concerning crowds are our best tools, but it seems terror and panic are where we are going with this one.
Thank you, Sheri. Good to see real, knowledgeable, authoritative facts displayed for us all to read.
In the meantime, let scientists go flat out to create an antidote or vaccine. They are much smarter and better at that now than ever. Unlike before Crick and Watson we now are beginning to see how it all hangs together. We are no longer powerless.
But are we powerless to stop this generation being so stupidly anxious and panicky??
“But are we powerless to stop this generation being so stupidly anxious and panicky??”
Yes. That’s what brought us to this site in the first place.
Lucky for you then that you don’t have to kiss them. In countries across asia the left hand is used for wiping unsavoury places or things, the right hand is for eating and social interaction. Offering someone your left hand is a profound insult. But washing both appears to me a good idea.
Why would the US be offended? I would not personally. If Italy had the guts to ban travel from China this may have been dropping off quickly now. Frankly the comment about uninsured not being tested is more offensive.
I am with you if a country can afford the economic damage and wants to control it’s borders to manage the risk that is entirely up to them and countries getting upset about it is a bit over the top.
I’m not offended, either. Similarly, I would not be offended if I had the virus and were require to self-quarantine. Practical precautions to reduce the potential suffering of others should not be dismissed just to avoid temporarily offending a person or group.
And if Israel’s rate of infection were high, I would hope the US would ban travel from there as well.
“If Italy had the guts to ban travel from China this may have been dropping off quickly now.”
Italy banning travel from China wouldn’t have helped much when the Chinese could just fly into another EU country and take a train.
Didn’t patient zero for one of the Italian outbreaks come from Germany?
The fundamental problem here is that this disease goes against the entire dogma of the EU and many other Western countries, that borders are bad and free travel is good. The only way to prevent it spreading was to restrict travel, and the governments were never going to admit that would be a good idea when they’re so devoted to open borders.
Italy signed on to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, so there are something like 300,000 Chinese in Italy working on projects.
And something like 250,000 Chinese visitors to Italy every month. Banning Chinese tourists in late January would have been closing the barn door after the proverbial horse had bolted.
Let’s not lose sight of the fact that Israeli politics are at least as polarized as in the US. Recently they had a third election in succession that ended in stalemate. I wouldn’t be surprised if deep state anti-Netanyahu operatives are attempting to use the opportunity to either weaken his relationship with Trump or make it look like he’s putting Israel at risk by not banning US travel, or preferably both. It’s also very unlikely that the Democrats aren’t involved with this in some way. They’re desperate to ramp up the panic. “Israel bans US travel due to Trump incompetence”.
I had cough and a fever and went to see my local doctor. I was negative to having the flu yet they would not test for the covin19 virus. I latter read the guidelines and found that my doctor had followed the guidelines exactly. They only test if your deathly sick or if you ran into someone that from China. Its quite apparent that they are not going to be able to contain this in the US. The reason this is happening is that they do not have enough test kits for people with mild disease because of a CDC screw up.
One of the things that need to be done is to be able to identify the people that have antibodies and are immune. After those people self isolate for a couple weeks until they are no longer shedding the virus, they can be put to work helping those that are sick or interfacing with the public.
According to Johns Hopkins 0.0000014% of the US population is infected.
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
According to Johns Hopkins 0.0000014% of the US population is infected.
According to Johns Hopkins 0.0000014% of the US population are CONFIRMED to be infected. Given the current death rate in the US, the number is likely to be at least 5 times the JH figure and will probably double every few days for the foreseeable future.
None of the developed countries are fully prepared, but the US is well behind the curve.
No, that’s subtly wrong. Cases won’t double, detection will. (Probably the growth rate will correlate closely with the number of test kits delivered). For all we know, millions are already infected, but only a few vulnerable and unlucky people are critically ill.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying that this isn’t a problem. Everyone should take precautions so that we don’t unwittingly infect vulnerable people. Most of us are not vulnerable but practically all of us have contact with friends, relatives, and neighbors who are at risk.
How many times does this subtle point need repeating?
From the article: “The Health Ministry has been pushing to add the US to a list of destinations from where travelers entering Israel must be quarantined for 14 days, but other unspecified ministries were blocking the move over concerns it could harm political and economic ties with Washington, an unnamed senior government official told Hebrew media.”
It wouldn’t hurt my feelings. The Israeli government has to do what it thinks is best to safeguard it citizens. I think reasonable people can agree with that and would not punish Israel for trying to defend its people from COVID-19.
Does this mean that Israel will also quarantine US foreign aid money? Not of it shall flow in across their borders?
As the old saying goes, “Be careful of what you wish for.”
Italy’s coronavirus death rate is 366 / 7,375 = 5%.
Italians in the Lombardy are most likely better fed and healthier than Chinese, Chinese numbers of less than 3% are not credible.
The median age in Italy is seven years higher than China, which is likely to make a massive difference to the death rate with this disease; if the Chinese data is accurate, the death rate begins to rise rapidly at 50, and the median age of Italy’s population is apparently 46.
Geographic distribution of population is different too. In China majority of large cities population are younger people attracted by industry and commerce opportunities, while the old are left behind in villages, consequently with a very low rate of infection but also limited access to medical establishments and possibly little or no testing at all.
I’m genuinely puzzled by this sudden outbreak, since Chinese traditional markets and dietary practices were same through centuries and if anything less hygienic than at the present.
All of these numbers are overstated because over 80% of people have mild symptoms, and many more than that likely have no symptoms (like flu so cdc uses models instead of testing to give numbers), so are never tested.
Also, with a specificity of 99.5% and a prevalence less than 0.5%, mass screening would yield 50% false positives, so more testing is not the answer (which is why HIV testing was mainly done on high risk patients with symptoms)
“Also, with a specificity of 99.5% and a prevalence less than 0.5%, mass screening would yield 50% false positives, so more testing is not the answer (which is why HIV testing was mainly done on high risk patients with symptoms)”
err no. hey come to Korea and watch us test.
Before you can use Baye’s Theorem, you have to know that the prevalence in the country is 0.5% or less. It’s too early to claim that 5 people in every 1000 of a population are (or will be infected). But the point is interesting. It suggests that there could be a large number of people who are tested false positive. Even if it isn’t 50%, but, say 15% such a result might explain why some people who test positive are asymptomatic. They might be false positives.
The other side of the coin is that false negatives would be let out into the community, where they can start the spread again. Yet another reason why containment is improbable.
You are tested more than once if you test positive.
around 20% of those tested positive in SK were asymptomatic, or had very slight symptoms.
we will soon have a test with a 20 minute turn around
https://www.voanews.com/science-health/coronavirus-outbreak/south-korea-britain-aggressively-test-coronavirus
It can take up to 8 tests to turn a false negative into a positive:
https://towardsdatascience.com/statistics-and-unreliable-tests-coronavirus-is-difficult-to-contain-e113b5c0967c
And so more and more people will be tested, whipping up more hysteria and more and more false positives and false negatives will occur, creating more confusion. The attempt to test and contain seems like an impossible task, much like controlling the climate.
Italy probably has several hundred thousand cases. So the death rate is probably like half a percent.
Does Typhoid Mary ring a bell? She had no symptoms but had the disease and therefore was a carrier and a spreader of typhoid. With COVID-19, it has been reported that when a person becomes infected, symptoms do not present for 10+/- days, yet the infected person CAN spread the virus to others during this period. This is totally unlike the flu and other corona viruses, which are not contagious until after symptoms appear. Also, some folks who test positive for COVID-19 never show ANY symptoms, so are in effect true “carriers”. How many people walking in and out of the Life Care nursing home in Washington are unknowingly carrying the virus with them, may never show symptoms, won’t know they are infected and yet can spread it to dozens of others. Each of those dozens may spread to dozens more, hence exponential spreading.
The good news is the recovery rate for young and healthy individuals is probably around +/-99% which includes those who are asymptomatic and can never really be known without extensive testing. The bad news is that most of deaths that have occurred are among the elderly and those with compromised lungs or immune systems, which may amount to 30 to 50 million of US population. Those of us with this heightened susceptibility should be very careful.
Typhoid Mary is reported to have infected 51 people, 3 of whom died. She lived a little over 100 years ago prior to airplanes and interstate highways. Today how many “Corona Carls” are there wandering around obliviously infecting hundreds, thousands or even millions of people.
The new flu (Coronavirus) has killed about 19 in America so far while the ‘old’ flu kills about 50 every day. The MSM speciously frighten people about the new flu, jeopardizing the economy of the country and world, simply because they hate Trump.
The MSM speciously frighten people about anything they can get their hands on. That’s their job. Watch Nightcrawler.
If Corona is no big deal then why did trump ban travelers from China?
And why does he brag about protecting the country from something that is not worse than the flu?
Besides doing the right thing, educating the public on how to avoid getting sick, Trumb is countering the Dem complaint that he isn’t doing enough.
In addition to mitigating the ‘new’ flu, I expect there will be reduction in cases of the ‘old’ flu as a well.
Can you list those who died from the flu?
Or is that another “model” BS output?
Containment is unlikely. Do not listen to MSM; go directly to CDC and read what they written.
WUWT friends it’s time to plan for the worst and hope for the best. Non perishable food, cooking fuel, oil, tp, can goods, tp, dried rice and beans, soap, To and dried beans should be high on the list.
25 million on restricted movement in Italy.
I was in Israel last month when all this was breaking. They wouldn’t accept anyone into the country who had even been thinking (hyperbole) about China. All they did was ask people if you had been to China withing a particular time period. Of course, my passport was proof that I hadn’t been to China, so I’m not sure why they even ask. At this point, all we’re doing is slowing the spread, which means we have more time to prepare testing kits and medications. All in all, it seems like this is mostly overblown by the mainstream media. Who would ever expect them to do something like that?
watch the whole thing
how a modern democracy fights the virus and maintains its core values
So now, just as we believe we can control the weather by pulling the CO2 lever, we think we can contain a highly contagious, stealthy, largely benign, virus by mass testing. Magical thinking triumphs again.
1. No one does MASS testing you idiot, not even in Korea. the testing is TARGETED
A) a call center gets one infected. You test all 207 employees. 50 have it ( Seoul)
B) a hospital has a case walk in. You test everyone. more hits ( also Seoul case)
C) a church member gets it. you test all 310,000 members. ( Daegue ect)
2. No one is even SUGGESTING mass testing
3. experts know that you cannot contain it, that horse left the barn. what you can do SLOW the spread.
4. Why slow the spread? the reason is simple.
A) your health system has a fixed number of beds. Fill those too fast and you get collateral damage
B) 1918 shows you what can happen if you do nothing
C) MERS and SARS show you how you can avoid 1918 by taking prudent action
“2. No one is even SUGGESTING mass testing”
Seems as though lots of esteemed publications qualify as ‘no one’.
“…countries across Asia have been mobilising for weeks in an attempt to contain the spread of the coronavirus. … combining mass-testing, technology and social distancing to stem the tide of infections.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/11/mass-testing-alerts-and-big-fines-the-strategies-used-in-asia-to-slow-coronavirus
“In the U.S., Americans are used to picking up Whoppers and Big Macs using drive-thrus. In South Korea, you can now use a drive-thru to get tested for coronavirus. ”
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-south-korea-drive-thru-test-covid-19/
“Officials attribute the decrease to mass testing, improved public communication and the use of advanced technology”
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3074469/coronavirus-south-korea-cuts-infection-rate-without
tiawan
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762689