Solar Update December 2019

David Archibald

We are well into the Solar Cycle 24/25 minimum but 24 may not have ended yet. A solar cycle isn’t over until the heliospheric current sheet has flattened. And that could be as late as March 2021. Solar cycle amplitude does matter with respect to climate and the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25, from projecting trends from the last three cycles, looks like being about 80 in 2027.

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Figure 1: F10.7 flux 2014 to 2019

The F10.7 flux has been flat for a couple of years now. What is interesting is that a low of 63.4 was recorded on 21st October, which may be a low for the instrumental record. Since then the F10.7 has been in a narrow range from 68 to 70.

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Figure 2: Heliospheric current sheet tilt angle 1976 to 2019

The solar cycle isn’t over until the heliospheric current sheet tilt angle has flattened and as at Carrington rotation 2224, the tilt angle was still a few degrees from having flattened. If the date of flattening is constrained by the slope of the decline from the cycle peak then the latest date for flattening is March 2021.

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Figure 3: Ap Index 1980 – 2019

This figure shows the break in the Ap Index in 2006 at the end of the Modern Warm Period to the New Cold Period. It also shows the relationship between month of heliospheric current sheet flattening (red arrows) and the month of minimum as determined by the low in sunspot activity (green arrows) which is far more subjective.

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Figure 4: Aligned heliospheric current sheet tilt angle by month of minimum

Solar Cycle 23 was stronger for longer while Solar Cycle 24 is largely tracking 21 and 22, suggesting the end may be soon.

clip_image010Figure 5: Solar hemispheric sunspot area and F10.7 flux 1985 – 2019

This figure is included to show that solar activity, as measured by the F10.7 flux, is directly proportional to the sum of the sunspot areas of the solar northern and southern hemispheres. Sunspot number is proportional to F10.7 flux but is a less precise measure.

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Figure 6: Sunspot area by solar hemisphere 1985 to 2019

In this figure the hemispheric sunspot areas are plotted individually instead of cumulatively. What is readily apparent is that each hemisphere has been driven by its own trend in activity – the peaks of both cycles all line up. Which begs the question of what will happen if those trends in activity continue? In Solar Cycle 24 the peak of northern hemispheric activity occurred three years before that of the southern hemisphere. If that repeats in Solar Cycle 25 with the amplitude of each hemisphere constrained by the blue trend lines, then the northern hemisphere would peak in 2024 with an amplitude of 200 millionths of the solar hemispheric area and the southern hemisphere would peak in 2027 with an amplitude of 600 millionths of the solar hemispheric area. For the whole solar cycle, the peak amplitude would be in 2027 with a smoothed sunspot number of 80, down a third from Solar Cycle 24.

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Figure 7: Sunspot area by hemisphere 1874 to 1924

This figure is included to show that trends in hemispheric sunspot activity can hold for nearly four solar cycles as shown by the southern solar hemisphere (red line) from the late 19th century.

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Figure 8: Oulu Neutron Count 1964 to 2019

This is the main part of where the rubber meets the road in terms of the effect of solar activity on climate. Weaker solar activity, as is predicted for Solar Cycle 25, means that more galactic cosmic rays make it into the inner planets of the solar system instead of being pushed away by the Sun’s magnetic flux carried on the solar wind. The shower of neutrons in the lower atmosphere increases and provides more nucleation sites for cloud droplets. The increased cloud cover reflects more sunlight and the Earth cools. The peak in neutron flux may be as late as 2022.

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Figure 9: North Dakota December 3, 2019

The economic consequences of a cooling Earth are shown in this figure of part of a satellite photo of a rural area of North Dakota taken on December 3, 2019. White is snow and the brown rectangles are unharvested corn. In NASA’s words:

“a wet fall, combined with corn plants that contained too much moisture, provoked famers to leave the corn in the fields this year. Snow on corn stocks can clog harvesting equipment. But the bigger concern is the moisture content. It is more economically prudent for a farmer to wait and let the corn dry on the stalks—harvesting it in February or early March—than it is to harvest it now and have to dry it in storage facilities.”

David Archibald is the author of American Gripen: The Solution to the F-35 Nightmare.

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December 23, 2019 3:28 pm

Here is some exceptionally interesting data regarding the fall off in overall solar intensity and the 677.98 nanometer irradiance is very far down (almost 2w/m2) over the last solar minimum.

Very darned interesting…

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/topic/1575-solar-minimum-per-sorce-sim/

B d Clark
Reply to  Dennis Wingo
December 23, 2019 3:38 pm

Heres some similar data I posted earlier notice the correlation with sunspots

comment image?PHPSESSID=egl2qdqv0lek3nqal69loo2gf3

Bindidon
December 23, 2019 4:46 pm

angech

In your comment above, concerning the graph I presented:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1XwvXfhkL5XcRBbsT09CybDsVNI_d7s-m/view

you wrote:
“In all 3 recognised global data sets it shows global temperatures have falling trends since 2016.”

Since 2016!!! Oh dear, oh Noes! That horrifying.

1. Is it for me a wonderful thing, angech, to observe that
– when a Warmista points on 40 years of warming, s/he gets immediately replied by Coolistas ‘8000 years ago, it was much warmer’,
but also that
– the same Coolistas suddenly can insist on ‘falling trends’ since little three years.

What an amazing, delightful contrast!

2. You speak about ‘since 2016’. Aha.

What did you say in 2001, little three years after the 1997/98 El Nino, which was way stronger than that of 2015/16? Did the temperatures not fall too at that time?

They did. And they did (or seemed to do) quite similar as they do (or seem to do) now.

But inbetween, a little piece of warming happened. Not much! But enough to let a temperature series give the impression that right now, nothing is any more comparable to the period 21 years ago. Nonsense!

I think since a while that the best way is to compare, using the UAH temperature series, the two El Nino events such that they both start at zero (we can do that by subtracting in the periods to be compared, the first anomaly from all subsequent ones).

Let us compare, in the UAH time series, the periods Jan 1997 till Nov 2001 and Jan 2015 till Nov 2019:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1y1zmzMt_1gD5jxCOH13UVYvbocYulbNz/view

After the highest anomaly in the UAH record since beginning in Dec 1978, it is quite normal to observe falling trends. But when comparing the two El Nino situations I ask you:

What is in these falling trends so different from what happened after 1997/98?
Do not both periods show a rebound after their relative peak?

Moreover, while the difference between the highest peak in 1998 and the lowest subsequent drop was 0.99 °C, the difference between the (relatively higher) 2016 peak and its lowest subsequent drop was only 0.72 °C.

*
Interestingly, you can observe a quite similar situation at the surface.

To show this, I selected the ‘coolest’ temperature series, namely that of the Japanese Met Agency: it reports global anomalies wrt 1981-2010 quite similar to those of UAH in the lower troposphere:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BEj60d0jVS51gDbSzBMhNvuP_14I3Wey/view

Trend for 1979-2019: 0.14 °C / decade, com pared with UAH6.0 LT: 0.13 °C.

Now let us look at the two El Nino periods, as we did for UAH:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1B1fmSRnfC_TIRUYI6eQs2JeSFRHxhXqL/view

You could easily continue the game with the undetrended AMO…

*
Conclusion: may I propose to wait for a little year or two, and then to resume the comparison?

Merry Xmas
J.-P. D. in the (a bit too warm) Germany. I enjoy! I don’t need snow any more…

angech
Reply to  Bindidon
December 24, 2019 5:56 am

Happy Xmas Bindidon.
Thank you for you graph showing the cooling trend in all 3 major global data sets since 2016.
Which supported AM ‘s observation that some cooling had happed recently.
And deflated Loydo’s snark.
Trends are simply changes in direction over time periods.
People are entitled to observe a trend change, as Allen did and comment on it.

Your comments that 3 years is too short a time for a trend, that forty years is perfect and that 8000 years is too long and confuses two different concepts, definition and relevance.
A trend can be observable over any time period.
A trend has relevance only when associated with a meaningful idea or concept. it can help give a prediction or a possibility or a probability to past current and future events.
So.
Three years has very low relevance but you cannot complain about the mention of a trend.
40 years has some slight relevance, you can mention the trend but it still indicates low probability.
60 to a hundred years is starting to be useful but of course starts to lose relevance to us as we shuffle off the coil.
8000 years of data would be very helpful but of little use to the current concerns.
I strongly doubt that 2 years will resolve this issue.

However “ while the difference between the highest peak in 1998 and the lowest subsequent drop was 0.99 °C, the difference between the (relatively higher) 2016 peak and its lowest subsequent drop was only 0.72 °C.
Raises the issue of good faith in discussions.

We are talking about trends, remember.
The rate of fall for that 0.72C was much sharper , ie over a much shorter period of time than that of the 0.99C fall. .

In the long run the validity of AGW lies on increasing warming with CO2 and causing damage in doing so. A couple of years of cooling temperature will put a big dent in your argument. Much more than the gentle warming in a much too short 40 year span would do to mine.

Moreover, while the difference between the highest peak in 1998 and the lowest subsequent drop was 0.99 °C, the difference between the (relatively higher) 2016 peak and its lowest subsequent drop was only 0.72 °C.

Bindidon
Reply to  angech
December 24, 2019 12:09 pm

angech

As I anticipated, you are so incredibly busy with communicating your meaning that you didn’t have time to inspect the two graphs in my comment above with the necessary attention.

Perfect. Typical characteristic of what I use to name ‘pseudoskepticism’…

I don’t care about warming or cooling.

Have a nice time
J.-P. D.

B d Clark
Reply to  Bindidon
December 24, 2019 1:21 pm

That’s funny bindidon you go out of your way to show warming and failed, if you dont care about warming or cooling what exactly are you doing here , your a warmest and I’m glad I burst your bubble .

gary gulrud
December 23, 2019 9:09 pm

I know its only a correlation but weaker cycles are generally longer. Just 10 years for the weakest cycle in a century is unlikely.

Jeffrey Carels
December 24, 2019 9:32 am

2 SC25 sunspot groups visible today!

Editor
December 24, 2019 10:48 am

The part I don’t understand in all of this is, IF small sunspot-related solar variations make a difference in the climate, why is it so difficult to find an ~11-year cycle in surface datasets (e.g. temperature, SST, cloudiness, precipitation, etc.)?

And before you say I haven’t looked, check out the list below of where I have looked …

w.

Congenital Cyclomania Redux 2013-07-23

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Cycles Without The Mania 2013-07-29

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Sunspots and Sea Level 2014-01-21

I came across a curious graph and claim today in a peer-reviewed scientific paper. Here’s the graph relating sunspots and the change in sea level: And here is the claim about the graph: Sea level change and solar activity A stronger effect related to solar cycles is seen in Fig.…

Riding A Mathemagical Solarcycle 2014-01-22

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Sunny Spots Along the Parana River 2014-01-25

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Usoskin Et Al. Discover A New Class of Sunspots 2014-02-22

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Solar Periodicity 2014-04-10

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Cosmic Rays, Sunspots, and Beryllium 2014-04-13

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The Tip of the Gleissberg 2014-05-17

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The Effect of Gleissberg’s “Secular Smoothing” 2014-05-19

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Sunspots and Sea Surface Temperature 2014-06-06

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Maunder and Dalton Sunspot Minima 2014-06-23

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Changes in Total Solar Irradiance 2014-10-25

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Splicing Clouds 2014-11-01

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Volcanoes and Sunspots 2015-02-09

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Early Sunspots and Volcanoes 2015-02-10

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Sunspots and Norwegian Child Mortality 2015-03-07

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The New Sunspot Data And Satellite Sea Levels 2015-08-13

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Is The Signal Detectable 2015-08-19

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The Missing 11 Year Signal 2015-08-19

Dr. Nir Shaviv and others strongly believe that there is an ~ 11-year solar signal visible in the sea level height data. I don’t think such a signal is visible. So I decided to look for it another way, one I’d not seen used before. One of the more sensitive …

23 New Papers 2015-09-22

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The Cosmic Problem With Rays 2016-10-17

Normal carbon has six neutrons and six protons, for an atomic weight of twelve. However, there is a slightly different form of carbon which has two extra neutrons. That form of carbon, called carbon-14 or ’14C’, has an atomic weight of fourteen. It is known to be formed by the …

B d Clark
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
December 24, 2019 12:16 pm

In the splicing clouds article you linked too , I think konrad defended his position very well, I also think it’s no coincidence that you regergatate your previous articles at this time , the general theme seems to be not many people agree with you, even though you clearly know what your talking about. If you cant prove something which seems to be your point then you cant disprove it.

Reply to  B d Clark
December 24, 2019 12:41 pm

B d Clark December 24, 2019 at 12:16 pm

In the splicing clouds article you linked too , I think konrad defended his position very well, I also think it’s no coincidence that you regergatate your previous articles at this time , the general theme seems to be not many people agree with you, even though you clearly know what your talking about. If you cant prove something which seems to be your point then you cant disprove it.

B d, I stated a number of times in those articles that no, they do not prove that the sunspot-related solar variations don’t affect the surface climate. You can never prove a negative about the existence of something. All that my research can do is show where I’ve looked and found nothing.

Next, if you want to impress people with your vocabulary, learn to spell “regurgitate” …

Next, konrad did NOT “defend his position”. I asked him to quote whatever it was that he was babbling about. He didn’t do so, just continued to put up and knock down straw men regarding what he thinks I believe.

Finally, konrad said little about the subject, which is whether there is a significant ~ 11-year signal in the cloud dataset … probably because there isn’t one. The closest he came was this:

What I and many others are saying is that just because there is no discernible 11-year cycle in current data sets, it does not necessarily follow that the phenomena listed (and the addition of TSI component variation in UV bands other than EUV) are not having longer term climate effects. In fact, given the way the sun heats the oceans, and the complexity of ocean circulation, I would consider it unlikely that a clear 11 year signal would be manifest.

I have no idea what that had to do with clouds. In addition, the hourly, daily and monthly variations in solar input to any given ocean are clearly visible in the resulting changes in sea surface temperature. Nobody has ever explained to me what every surfer like myself knows, which is that changes in solar input easily change the ocean surface temperature on an hourly, daily, and monthly basis … but despite that, konrad and others claim that solar variations are somehow unable to do so on an ~11-year basis.

Do you have an answer to that one?

Best regards and Xmas wishes,

w.

B d Clark
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
December 24, 2019 12:50 pm

I dont really care if I’m impressing or depressing anyone with my grammar and spelling ,a rather cheap shot on your part, the sun warms the sea sure ,but it mixes every 12 hrs due to tides, which then increases or decreases the overall temperature, a prolonged SC will have a measurable effect on the main climate moderater, that drives the climate .a direct effect from the sun.

Reply to  B d Clark
December 24, 2019 1:19 pm

B d Clark December 24, 2019 at 12:50 pm

I dont really care if I’m impressing or depressing anyone with my grammar and spelling ,a rather cheap shot on your part, the sun warms the sea sure ,but it mixes every 12 hrs due to tides, which then increases or decreases the overall temperature, a prolonged SC will have a measurable effect on the main climate moderater, that drives the climate .a direct effect from the sun.

Thanks, B d. Pointing out that you can’t spell is indeed a cheap shot, my apologies. But if you wish to be taken seriously, it’s also an important shot—if you haven’t mastered spelling, folks are much less likely to take your scientific claims seriously. And you should “really care” about that.

Next, actually, the ocean does NOT “mix every 12 hrs due to tides” anywhere but in a very thin band along the shores. For the overwhelming majority of the ocean, the tide has absolutely no mixing effect. The entire ocean (and the land underneath it) simply moves up and down without mixing. In mid-ocean, or anywhere away from land, which is almost all of the ocean, there’s no way to know from the ocean’s behavior that a tide even exists.

In addition, in general, there are two tides per day … and if the mixing occurred as you hypothesize, we wouldn’t see the regular sinusoidal swings of sea surface temperatures over a 24-hour period. But we do see them, and there is no indication of any “tidal mixing” in the SST data.

So I fear your tidal mixing theory has run aground on a reef of hard facts.

w.

PS—How do I know so much about the ocean? Well, I’m a surfer, a diver, a sailor, and a commercial fisherman. I’ve spent thousands of hours out of sight of land. Plus I’m naturally curious and studious, so I’ve spent heaps of time reading about ocean-related science. There’s a tale of one of my more curious sea voyages here if you’re interested, 145 days at sea. And at the end of a lifetime of doing that, despite not having any credentials (except for a Coast Guard skippers license and Openwater I, II, and Rescue Diving Scuba certs) I know more than a little about the briny blue …

B d Clark
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
December 24, 2019 1:48 pm

Now I know your talking rubbish the oceans turn/mix every 12 hours there a heat sinc ,a radiative force that control climate over many decades, were do you think the solar radiation it picks up through the day goes,your analogy is false.your further claims that TSI are meaningless to 11 year cycles is also false you forget or omitting the cumulative effect of TSI over maxima and minima SC is huge , even the solar experts on this site agree on this, the debate is When consecutive SCs become a GSM 3 cycles appear to be the trigger, it’s not what you say in your case it’s what you dont say that matters, you belittle the effect of cosmic Ray’s and sun spots , yet these are climate drivers at present they correlate very well ,and correlate well with the transition of SC24 /25.

comment image?PHPSESSID=egl2qdqv0lek3nqal69loo2gf3

Your choice of date for your release of past articles is suspect, your lack of support in these previous articles is obvious , your another global warmest arent you.

Reply to  B d Clark
December 24, 2019 2:35 pm

B d, I fear your latest spittle-flecked rant has convinced me to let this interchange go. You haven’t provided anything but more passionate mis-spelled incoherent claims.

Science depends on EVIDENCE. You’ve given us exactly none

Pass.

My best wishes to you,

w.

B d Clark
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
December 24, 2019 2:47 pm

So that’s you completely blown out, another warmest completely stumped on CRF ,you claimed never heard of CRF having any effect on volcanic action yet papers proved you wrong, you were looking for a fight tonight and you got one, not even a mention of the correlation of sunspots and tsi here il post it again for you

comment image?PHPSESSID=egl2qdqv0lek3nqal69loo2gf3

Your a global warmest who has been confusing the debate for years,you asked for proof I gave you proof ,you bow out on the excuse of bad spelling ,loydo puts up a better argument than you .

Loydo
Reply to  B d Clark
December 24, 2019 3:56 pm

“loydo puts up a better argument than you”

Thank you B d, I’ll take that as a compliment. Just about everything you’ve written, including the above, is total hogwash, but thank you. Btw, I, being an actual so-called “warmist”, disagree with plenty of Willis’ conclusions, but as far as “putting them up” goes, he is way ahead of me.

Reply to  B d Clark
December 24, 2019 4:12 pm

I posted this below, B d, but it seems you missed it.

B d Clark December 23, 2019 at 3:19 pm

… you knew CRF effects cloud nucleation and magma ,during low sun activity ,

B d, I looked at volcanoes and sunspots and found no correlation of the kind that you claim. See here for the details.

If you disagree with my analysis of volcanoes and sunspots, please quote the section you think is wrong, and tell us why. Handwaving and personal attacks go nowhere.

w.

Reply to  B d Clark
December 24, 2019 4:33 pm

B d Clark December 24, 2019 at 2:47 pm

So that’s you completely blown out, another warmest completely stumped on CRF ,you claimed never heard of CRF having any effect on volcanic action yet papers proved you wrong, you were looking for a fight tonight and you got one, not even a mention of the correlation of sunspots and tsi here il post it again for you

comment image?PHPSESSID=egl2qdqv0lek3nqal69loo2gf3

This is why it’s so hard to discuss things with you. I listed above no less that three separate posts of mine about volcanoes and sunspot-related solar variations. These variations, as I’ve also discussed in various places, include inter alia the TSI, the solar wind, and the CRF. All of these vary in sync with the sunspots.

So your claim above that I said that I’ve “never heard of CRF having any effect on volcanic action”, when I’ve written three separate posts on that very subject, is a joke. If you think I said that, point out where. And while you’re at it … please read my posts before you make an even greater spectacle of your failure to do your homework.

And the claim that I’m unaware that the TSI varies in sync with the sunspots is equally ludicrous. In fact, as Leif Svalgaard pointed out, you can calculate the TSI very closely using just the group sunspot number, with the relationship being:

TSI = 1360.43 + 0.24 * Group Sunspot Number ^ 0.7

So please, dial back on your fantasies of what I do and don’t know … I not only know that TSI varies in sync with sunspots, I know the formula to calculate one from the other, something which AFAICT you never heard of, much less know and have used in your research as I have …

Your a global warmest who has been confusing the debate for years,you asked for proof I gave you proof ,you bow out on the excuse of bad spelling ,loydo puts up a better argument than you .

I “asked for proof”? That’s another of your fantasies. If you truly believe that, point out where I said it.

Finally, you say you gave me “proof” of some unspecified thing … please point out where the proof is, and what it is the “proof” of …

I do, however, love your claim that I’m a “global warmest” …

w.

B d Clark
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
December 24, 2019 9:24 pm

It’s fairly obvious to anyone reading this post,theres something wrong with you I’ve provided 3 papers for you ,that you have totally ignored , no discussion no acknowledgement, nothing, you just keep refering to your own rubbish from years ago. You write a lot of words that mean nothing.

David Archibald
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
December 24, 2019 3:27 pm

Re the Norwegian child mortality, it was first done with US congressmen:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1993/05/24/an-extraterrestrial-link-sunspots-and-life-span/f9336f73-8100-42c1-bb77-6d35bcfeaa4c/

The research was funded by the bloke who developed cisplatin.

December 24, 2019 1:08 pm

David Archibald predicted at the time of the last solar minimum that this latest one would herald enormous cooling. There was instead enormous warming. Why does David Archibald still have an audience?

Reply to  TheFinalNail
December 24, 2019 6:52 pm

His writing is exciting even when some of it is suspect. He gets carried away with low solar cycle = cooling in the near future predictions, doesn’t consider buffering effects in the atmosphere and ocean waters.

Most of the “enormous” (not true) warming are from nearly continuous El-Nino phases, with very little La-Nina effects since 2008, that is a long time, which means the ocean waters have been cooling down for years now, eventually will peter out…..

Editor
December 24, 2019 1:27 pm

B d Clark December 23, 2019 at 3:19 pm Edit

… you knew CRF effects cloud nucleation and magma ,during low sun activity ,

B d, I looked at volcanoes and sunspots and found no correlation of the kind that you claim. See here for the details.

w.

Bindidon
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
December 24, 2019 5:22 pm

Willis Eschenbach

Thanks Willis.

Merry Xmas
J.-P. Dehottay in Germany