Global Warming Claim: More Blockbuster Snowstorms, Less Snow

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

Climate scientists struggling to reconcile model predictions of the end of snow with the observed abundance of white stuff have come up with a way to predict more and less snow at the same time.

With climate change, Washington may have entered era of more blockbuster snowstorms but less snow overall

By Andrew Freedman
November 26

A largely deserted Connecticut Avenue around Dupont Circle during the beginning of the Snowzilla storm on Jan. 22, 2016, in Washington. (Craig Hudson for The Washington Post/For The Washington Post)By Andrew FreedmanNovember 26

As Washington’s winter climate has warmed several degrees over the past 120 years, average snowfall has declined by about half a foot, from roughly 21 inches to 15 inches. Yet recent decades have also featured several of the biggest snowstorms the city has ever recorded.

Snowfall trends in Washington, as well as other East Coast cities, are leading scientists to this conclusion: Global warming, while eating away at some snow events, may paradoxically be contributing to an uptick in big East Coast snowstorms.

Judah Cohen, a meteorologist at AER, a Verisk Analytics company, has published multiple studies that link changing snowfall trends in the eastern United States to change in the Arctic. His research shows that the loss of Arctic sea ice is contributing to an increase in fall snowfall in parts of Siberia. This is, in turn, having an influence on weather across the Arctic, extending high into the atmosphere above the vast region, favoring weather patterns that tend to direct Arctic air into the Lower 48 states.

“Arctic change favors more disruptions of the polar vortex,” Cohen said, noting that he is somewhat lonely in that view. He sees polar vortex splits as a prerequisite to blockbuster East Coast snowstorms.

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/11/26/with-climate-change-washington-may-have-entered-era-more-blockbuster-snowstorms-less-snow-overall/

Let’s hope global warming is halted in time to prevent the East Coast from being buried under a permanent snowpack.

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118 thoughts on “Global Warming Claim: More Blockbuster Snowstorms, Less Snow

      • I think they have been undetectable for quite a while! Check the raw thermometer records for the last 100 years in a variety of cities around the world, and tell me what you detect. The only place I could find any measurable warming was in Sao Paolo, Calcutta, and Bombay. And that’s not because of CO2 back-radiation. (Neighbouring smaller towns don’t show any warming at all.)

  1. The desperation is showing. How will they ‘explain’ the upcoming Grand Solar Minimum?
    Can we RICO their fraudulent lying asses?

  2. These moegoes like Flannery have no honour. They never admit when mistaken. All just sychophantic grandstanders and bullshitters.

    • Here is link to Clive James short essay on
      https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2017/07/Clive-James.pdf
      on Mass death dies hard explaining from the standpoint of a man of letters why people like Flannery ( really mention Flannery in that essay) never admits making any mistake and in fact will ride on any theme promoting mass death. His poem the Imminent Catastrophe that was posted here in WUWT earlier is maybe a summary of the essay. People who are promoting anxiety and mass death because the earth is dying is really concerned about their mortality than earth’s environment.

      • Nice one eo. I’m reading it but have saved it to savour. Clive James (RIP) was a brilliant wit and a proper journalist. No scientist, but he could cut through the bull “why is this lying barsteward lying to me”?

        He checked his sources. “How do you reach these conclusions from these data?” If, but, maybe, perhaps….

        The MSM could learn much from Clive James, but professionism doesn’t fit the narrative. 🙁

    • Climategate Email 1120593115.txt, speaker Phil Jones

      This is from an Australian at BMRC (not Neville Nicholls). It began from the attached article. What an idiot. The scientific community would come down on me in no uncertain terms if I said the world had cooled from 1998. OK, it has, but it is only 7 years of data and it isn’t statistically significant. … As you know, I’m not political. If anything, I would like to see the climate change happen, so the science could be proved right, regardless of the consequences. This isn’t being political, it is being selfish.

      • And of course there was no rise in global temperature for another 11 years after the scumbag Jones sent that email. And then they omitted to mention a large El Nino as the reason for what has proved a temporary rise in temperature.

    • Sure, MR., and the tooth fairy and Easter bunny are real, too. Why don’t you psychics take up a hotline and get rich off gullible people instead of wasting your time among educated, thinking people. Rich, insecure people are a gold mine. Open up your 900 line today. (If you were going for sarcasm, keep your day job.)

  3. War is Peace.
    Freedom is Slavery.
    Ignorance is Strength.
    More Snow is Less Snow.

    ”This slogan describes the reality of accepting two mutually opposing beliefs simultaneously as correct. This was also a major program of the Party to promote “double thinking.” Hence, it is a good example of double thinking, though contradictory, but the people of Oceania accepted both ideas as correct.”

    – Orwell’s 1984, from Wikipedia.

    • I know its not nice for the people living there
      but damn I love seeing the expanding ice creeping onto land
      its all tinkly like broken glass and soooo weird it fascinates me

      • That includes crop failures due to late spring rains and mud, spring cold and spring frosts that delayed planting earlier in the year.

  4. Maybe the snowflakes are getting smaller!
    Seriously, there are no snowflakes in hell so perhaps that’s where climate liars are headed.

  5. Straight out of the ministry of truth. Orwell would have been thrilled with his educating novel. Never could he have imagined it would become the blueprint for 21st century dialogue. Global warming leads to increased cooling, less snow will lead to more snow, the Greens demand less Co2 because it is creating too much green and so on and so on…

    • “……….Orwell would have been thrilled with his educating novel. Never could he have imagined it would become the blueprint for 21st century dialogue………..”

      Er… I think that he imagined it only too well – which was why he wrote the novel. And ‘thrilled’ is hardly the term to use.

      He was deeply concerned that, in the aftermath of WW2, Western and World politicians would have learned from Stalin how to effectively oppress and rule a country. He expected that lesson to have been learned quite rapidly, and oppression established in 40 years.

      It would not surprise him to find out that it actually took 60-70….

  6. In Europe we have definitely warmer Winters (at least as I remember being 40yo+). To some extent it is even better – lower heating bills, etc. And still, remember Greenland got its name by purpose. There are also natural switches in global climate – it is not to support pollution and stupid spending resources. Just reminder

  7. The UK Met Office is now issuing cold weather warnings – I get local forecasts through the BBC and the predictions for the next week have been abruptly revised downwards. The strange thing is that a couple of weeks ago the Met Office issued a denial of someone else’s predictions of a cold winter saying, if I remember correctly, that it would be mild in December. I cannot locate that forecast now though I shall keep trying. I wish I had archived it at the time, I should have foreseen this!

  8. I was googling and stumbled on this.

    The cloudy cases show that optically thin ice clouds increase the cooling rate of the atmosphere by a factor up to three, making them important pieces of the Arctic energy balance. link

    When the arctic is ice covered in the winter, the sky is very clear. In the summer it is easy to tell where the edge of the ice is because there will be a towering cliff of cloud over the water. Does that mean that loss of ice cover increases upwelling infrared radiation at the top of the atmosphere?

    • commieBob – November 29, 2019 at 1:12 am

      In the (arctic) summer it is easy to tell where the edge of the ice is because there will be a towering cliff of cloud over the water. Does that mean that …..

      I’ll take a guess and say, ….. to me it means that the air over the open water is “warm” and contains abundant humidity and when it flows toward and over the edge of the ice its temperature drops quickly and the humidity condenses into visible water droplets (clouds).

      Like the “cloud” of visible vapor one sees when exhaling their breath on a really cold day.

  9. So it’s

    Tipping point CO2 level -> (something really sciency) -> higher winds but less snow.

    Could someone please explain in layman’s terms what goes on between the parentheses?

    • The error is in the first step. There are no ‘greenhouse gas tipping points’. They are an artefact of faulty climate models.

    • I can explain what goes on between the parentheses. The climate models have a very large number of arbitrary parameters. These parameters are used to make the models’ output match observations, without changing the core assumption built into the models. The core assumption is of course that man-made CO2 drives global warming.

      So, for example, parameters for feedbacks get tweaked up as necessary to reproduce the late 20thC warming, and hence deliver a very high climate sensitivity to CO2. As time goes by, the models have more and more trouble matching observation. Part of this problem is fixed by adjusting the past to reduce stress on the models’ parameters and to give them more scope to keep up with new developments. But inevitably the job of getting a totally invalid model to match observations becomes more and more difficult. That’s when these absurdities start to appear.

      When you have to have more snow to match observation, but your core assumption leads only to less snow, you have two basic options: (a) make the snow more intense (ie, find a way of making less snow look like more snow) or (b) admit that your model failed. The modellers are not ready for option (b) yet, and the left-wing politicians and mainstream media whose power and influence depend on the models are only too happy to support them.

    • “KilgoreHoover November 29, 2019 at 1:51 am

      So it’s

      Tipping point CO2 level -> (something really sciency) -> higher winds but less snow.”

      ____________________________________

      CO₂ was never forseen as “point tipper” in the real world – it’s just another trace gas.

      Point tippers in the real world are cosmic events like Comets or Meteors:

      You don’t have to ask you’ll know when it happened, Kilgore Hoover.

  10. Here in central Virginia, I check WeatherBug a few times a day, including the 10-day forecast. A couple of days ago, the forecast showed several days in the 60s, up to about 65; right now the hottest day in the ten days (including the days predicted for 60+ degree highs) is expected to spiral all the way up to 52. Of course, there is no word on why the change in predictions; but we can now expect the first quarter of December to be cold (though the expected lows don’t go below 30).

    • Yesterday, 11-28-19, … here in central West Virginia, …. just over the mountains from you, ….. it was like 63 degrees F at one time during the day.

  11. Eric

    Big news from Queensland. The Qld Goverment has been ordered to pay ~1 billion victims of floods (i think about 15 years agi I was there) due to mismanagement of dams (keeping water in dams due to BS warmistas insisting it would never rain again re TIM FLANNERY) Just saw in Sky News Channel Australia.

    • Thanks Eliza. Not really a climate story though AFAIK. I’m aware of the narrative that the flood engineers hesitated to release water because Flannery said it would never flood again, so they were under instructions to hang on to every drop of water, but I don’t have firm evidence this is what happened.

      I wasn’t here for the 2011 flood, but I saw the 2013 flood with my own eyes, this is a pic I took of Colleges Crossing upriver of the Queensland State Capital Brisbane at the height of the 2013 floods.

  12. Interesting attempt, by Freedman, at trying to sell the Party Line. My amateur view of Arctic or Antarctic weather making it to lower/higher locations says: weak El Niños produce weak latitude winds and these lose their blocking ability. Here in west-central Argentina the grape growers look mostly at ENSO predictions to prepare for the growing season. Currently, with a weak El Niño, there will be more cold air masses making it “up” to our latitude, meaning less overall summer moisture and less thunderstorms.

  13. Let’s extrapolate this analysis and predict that by the time there is no more snow there will be an infinite number of blockbuster snowstorms.

  14. So far, the forecast by the Old Farmers Almanac has been more on the money than those silly “globull warming” people scrambling to cover and/or explain their predictions.

    I’ve checked a couple of local rivers which were up over their banks in September, thanks to excessive rain near their headwaters. Now they’r down a bit, but not enough to avoid flooding from runoff in the Spring. At least we take this seriously and prep for it with runoff and catchment basins, which add to the wetland space for water birds and fishing birds. Anticipating what Mom Nature can or will do is a good idea.

    But someone please tell me why these geniuses who squawk about ‘globull warming’ always, always, always fail to take water vapor/humidity levels into account before they publish their panic-stricken stuff???

    My neighbor was out mowing his lawn and mine on Tuesday because it was still growing. Nothing wrong with that. The ground hasn’t frozen yet, so any precipitation will sink into it, fertilizing it for next Spring.

    I hope all of you had a nice Thanksgiving Day.

    • In my decades of living in Colorado, I’ve had to mow my lawn at least a couple of times around Thanksgiving. This year, it’s under a foot of snow so I assume that it doesn’t need mowing (although I have no visible proof of that). Here’s the kicker, I sold my snow blower this past Spring and I said it would snow more this year (possibly due to lower my CO2 emissions).

      Mr. Cohen should learn that by carrying an umbrella, the probability of rain is lessened. He might look at overall trends in total precipitation, rain and snow, as well as temperature to test our theories.

  15. You have to keep in mind that this not the snow we are familiar with, oh no. This is man-made CO2 enhanced snow, therefore not constrained to the laws of physics.

  16. There is the matter that around or shortly after 1998 there was a change in how snowfall measurement at most airports was done for weather records. Before the change, snowfall measurements at airports was done by government employees according to two methods. One method was more appropriate for weather records, the other was more appropriate for aviation needs. When the two methods give different results, the “aviation method” usually indicates more snow than the “climatological record”.

    The change of around 1998 involved the trend of contracting out government jobs that started when Reagan was President. The job of snowfall measurements at airports was shifted to private contractors, and their snow measurement points are allowed to be up to 2 miles from the airport’s weather station. And the contractors are only paid to measure snowfall according to the “aviation method”. This led to a notable snowfall record at Baltimore Washington International Airport set by the February 5-6 2010 “Snowmageddon” storm being adjusted downward by the National Climate Data Center, and post-1998 snow records being called into question.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/02/28/bwi-snow-record-rescinded-another-reason-why-airports-arent-the-best-place-to-measure-climate-data/

    http://web.archive.org/web/20140818115230/http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2010-02-20/news/bal-md.measurement20feb20_1_bwi-thurgood-marshall-airport-climatological-data-national-climatic-data-center

  17. Well, it was inevitable that the publication mill in climate science would start to run out of combinations of “nonsense with a model prediction” for fun and tenure. Next up is more snow on Tuesdays but not Wednesdays.

  18. This gem from the Australian re qld floods
    “At a policy level, it was a perfect storm. The Queensland government-owned dam’s operators, or engineers, were at its epicentre. There was growing hysteria before January 2011 because bureaucrats and politicians had heeded the alarmist predictions of climate warriors that floods were unlikely to trouble Australia in future. Tim Flannery’s dire warning that “even the rain that falls isn’t going to fill our dams and river systems” was followed by a drought that blighted Queensland.

    Alarmism and dropping dam and reservoir levels must have influenced the way dam engineers were managing releases. Politicians wanted engineers to store water, not “fritter it away” with releases that might be called wasteful. But throughout 2010, the weather changed as a La Nina effect with heavy rainfall overwhelmed the drought-causing El Nino. While the weather had changed fundamentally and Queensland’s catchments were saturated, the politicians, bureaucrats and dam operators were stuck in the past. They still wanted the state’s dams to be storing, not flood-mitigating.”

    Where is Tim Flannery??

    • I think it was Hansen that said not long ago that a drop in temperatures for a decade or so would not nullfy the CAGW (Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming) conjecture. He’s covering his bets so he can be right no matter which way the temperatures go.

      Skeptic of the future: “It’s been cooling for over a decade now, James”. James: “I know. I predicted it.”

  19. Putting on my snowboard now in Winter Park CO, we are supposed to get a lot of global warming today, Hopefully a foot or so!!!

  20. I suspect this may be a UHI effect (if it is even real): smaller/less extreme storms don’t get through the Urban Heat Island temperature elevation; snow melts before it hits the ground or clears off sooner, leaving less accumulation, but the big bruiser storms get through and dump.

    • And rolling dice would have more predictive power than reading chicken entrails. So really, these “scientists” are like the anus of science that can only produce crap.

  21. As Washington’s winter climate has warmed several degrees over the past 120 years…

    I love that line, as in “Good news, you’re getting a several percentage (1.2%) pay raise!”

    Or, do they mean that in the sense that it warmed several degrees since sunrise…each day for the past 120 years?

  22. There has been a big decline in Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in spring and summer, centered on the month of June.
    https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=6

    That’s when days are longest and the sun is most direct – meaning snow is able to reflect more light then than compared to other months. Conversely, the lack of snow allows more energy to be absorbed. The exposed earth warms faster, forests and brush dry out sooner.

    • Interesting chart. As you progress through the months you will discover a big shift in the amount of snow that falls in the winter compared to the amount of snow that remains in the summer. This shift appears to begin in August.

      • A restatement of my post is in order: Since this chart demonstrated snow cover anomalies it should read “As you progress through the months you will discover a big shift in the amount of snow cover anomalies during the winter months as compared to the snow cover anomalies during the summer months. This shift appears to begin in August.”

        • @Marv
          Tbe restatement was important. Snow depth, snow/water equivalent, snow cover extent and total snowfall are all independent variables, often tracking in different directions.

  23. “may paradoxically be contributing to an uptick in big East Coast snowstorms.”

    It’s either a paradox or a lie. I’m going with lie.

  24. “Snowfall trends in Washington, as well as other East Coast cities, are leading scientists to this conclusion: Global warming, while eating away at some snow events, may paradoxically be contributing to an uptick in big East Coast snowstorms.”

    “May”; the magical word that allows fools like Freedman and Cohen to proclaim fallacies and falsehoods while pretending they “may” have relevance.

    All these falsehoods coming out at the same time…
    Smells like another major propaganda push to support the nonsense in Spain.

  25. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology plays this game also. Faced with an obvious down trend in frequency and severity of tropical cyclones http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/climatology/trends.shtml the BOM narrative is now that cyclones will now be less frequent but more intense. A safe bet I guess as the another big one sooner or later is pretty inevitable and then they are able to to say we told you so.

    No matter what happens the cause is AGW and reality and logic will be contorted until a “proof” is arrived at.

  26. @ATheoK
    You proclaim it is a fallacy and falsehood that global warming “may paradoxically be contributing to an uptick in big East Coast snowstorms”

    Is this something you have studied? Please show the evidence that supports your proclamation.

    • Dear Professor Snape-san:

      I suggest you discuss your concerns with Wizard Dumbledore during Hogwarts’ next staff meeting…

    • Snape November 30, 2019 at 12:52 am

      [ Your ] GUESS [ Theo knows almost nothing about the subject he commented on]

      is as valuable as infos about bicycles collapsing in China.

  27. The article claims that over the last 120 years, “average snowfall (in Washington) has declined by about half a foot, from roughly 21 inches to 15 inches. ” Is there anything in that? Are there any figures to show that in Washington, at least, that is not the case?

  28. Global Warming catastrophists will soon need to convince their useful Leftist idiots that Global Warming does, in fact, somehow, someway, cause… Global Cooling…

    Actually, given Leftists’ level of insanity, naivety, scientific ignorance, brainwashing, and stupidity, this should be a fairly task…

    “Against stupidity, the very gods themselves contend in vain.”~ Friedrich Schiller

  29. Hey Jerry Brown!! About that “PERMANENT California Drought”? Raining cats and dogs over the Thanksgiving Holiday in Orange Co.

    https://southocbeaches.com/2019/11/29/orange-county-beaches-rain-day-friday-november-29-2019/

    Oh, and the grapevine was completely covered in snow. Nothing but WHITE … wherever you looked. The “drought” will return soon … eh, Jerry? Oh, and Jerry? You’re a dangerous, senile, buried-out, 60’s radical, who forever destroyed the State of CA with your idiocy.

  30. It snowed here in California right up here in Siskiyou County on tuesday to and were suppost to be getting more of the white stuff today now lets see the Eco-Wackos dig out their driveways and sidewalks all that many feet of Global Warming/Climate Change

  31. Allan pls change your

    ___________________________________________________

    to

    ____________________________________

    / easier handling with handheld phones /

    Thx

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