Guest post by Paul Dorian,
*Arctic blast has arrived in the eastern US…numerous record low temperatures by early Wednesday*
Overview
The strong cold front representing the leading edge of a widespread Arctic air mass passed through the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor early this morning and temperatures have fallen into the 30’s from early day highs. Precipitation is being enhanced in the cold air behind the front as a strong jet streak aloft generates upward motion in the I-95 corridor. As a result, a changeover to snow is likely during the mid-day and early afternoon hours in the immediate DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and this changeover to snow is likely all the way to coastal New Jersey and Delmarva. Some spots could receive small snow accumulations and as temperatures drop to near freezing later in the day, watch for the possibility of “black ice” on some roadways. Precipitation winds down later today and the cold will become the main story with record low temperatures in numerous Mid-Atlantic/NE US locations by early tomorrow. Widespread records were set earlier today from Texas to the Great Lakes with some stations recording their lowest temperature ever for the month of November and we are not even at the halfway point.
Details
Often times the passage of a frontal system signals the end of the precipitation, but that is not the case today as an upper-level jet streak is enhancing upward motion and helping to generate some post-frontal precipitation in the I-95 corridor. As temperatures continue to drop, the rain is changing over to snow in many locations and this changeover threat will extend all the way to the east coast over the next couple of hours. Small snow accumulations are possible and there is the possibility of some “black ice” to form on the roadways later today as temperatures slide towards the freezing mark.
A widespread region of the country experienced daily record or near record lows this morning and, in some cases, the lowest temperature ever recorded for the month of November took place which is particularly impressive since we haven’t even reached the mid-way point of the month. This area of record or near record lows will shift to the Mid-Atlantic/NE US by early tomorrow morning as many low temperature records are well within reach. For example, at Philly Int’l Airport (PHL), the record low for November 13th (Wednesday) is 24 degrees and this is certainly within reach and many suburban locations along the I-95 corridor will drop to the teens in the overnight hours. In addition to the potential for overnight low temperature records, high temperatures on Wednesday will be confined to the low-to-mid 30’s along the I-95 corridor and these may turn out to be the “lowest” high temperatures ever recorded for the date of November 13th.
Some of the very impressive weather observations from this morning include monthly temperature records at Clinton, Oklahoma (12 degrees), Altus AFB, Oklahoma (13 degrees), Mt. Vernon, Illinois (10 degrees), and Fort Worth, Texas (20 degrees). This is especially impressive given the fact that we haven’t even reached mid-month and most monthly records are set near the end of the given month. In addition, the daily record set this morning at Indianapolis, Indiana of 8 degrees shatters the prior record set 108 years ago and Chicago, Illinois dropped to a record of 7 degrees – both of these are the lowest temperatures ever for so early in the season. In Detroit, Michigan, the Arctic blast resulted in nearly 10 inches of snow…the most ever there for the month of November. Finally, and not to be outdone, it dropped all the way down to 7 degrees in Amarillo, Texas earlier today.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com
Much more of this global warming and we’ll enter a new ice age…
Indeed Eric,
C(x)GW has always instigated the onset of ice ages; who was it the last time around? Dolphins? Sure not, CDGW doesn’t sound right. Hey, how about Vogons! CVGW sounds like their doing — they’re despicable!!
The only positive of this outcome may be, for some, the view of da Mann et al on pillory praying nobody brings a real hockey stick…
How are things in Australia Eric?
Below average where I live. One of the coolest novembers that I can remember in my 73 years.
https://youtu.be/E6RrgBrb6R8
Well, there it is – the perfect Trifecta – my work here is done.
In 2002, co-authors Dr Sallie Baliunas, Astrophysicist, Harvard-Smithsonian, Dr Tim Patterson, Paleoclimatologist, Carleton, Ottawa and Allan MacRae wrote:
http://www.friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/KyotoAPEGA2002REV1.pdf
1. “Climate science does not support the theory of catastrophic human-made global warming – the alleged warming crisis does not exist.”
2. “The ultimate agenda of pro-Kyoto advocates is to eliminate fossil fuels, but this would result in a catastrophic shortfall in global energy supply – the wasteful, inefficient energy solutions proposed by Kyoto advocates simply cannot replace fossil fuels.”
Allan MacRae published in the Calgary Herald on September 1, 2002, based on a conversation with Dr. Tim Patterson:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/01/10/polar-sea-ice-changes-are-having-a-net-cooling-effect-on-the-climate/#comment-63579
3. “If [as we believe] solar activity is the main driver of surface temperature rather than CO2, we should begin the next cooling period by 2020 to 2030.”
Allan MacRae modified his global cooling prediction in 2013 or earlier:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/02/study-predicts-the-sun-is-headed-for-a-dalton-like-solar-minimum-around-2050/#comment-1147149
3a. “I suggest global cooling starts by 2020 or sooner. Bundle up.”
Regards to all, Allan MacRae
_______________________________________________
SELECTED REFERENCES:
DEBATE ON THE KYOTO ACCORD,
Published by APEGA in the PEGG, reprinted by other professional journals, The Globe and Mail and La Presse,
by Sallie Baliunas, Tim Patterson and Allan MacRae, November 2002
http://www.friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/KyotoAPEGA2002REV1.pdf
CARBON DIOXIDE IS NOT THE PRIMARY CAUSE OF GLOBAL WARMING, THE FUTURE CAN NOT CAUSE THE PAST
By Allan M.R. MacRae, January 2008
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/CO2vsTMacRae.pdf
PRESENTATION OF EVIDENCE SUGGESTING TEMPERATURE DRIVES ATMOSPHERIC CO2 MORE THAN CO2 DRIVES TEMPERATURE
By Allan M.R. MacRae, June 13, 2015
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/06/13/presentation-of-evidence-suggesting-temperature-drives-atmospheric-co2-more-than-co2-drives-temperature/
CO2, GLOBAL WARMING, CLIMATE AND ENERGY
by Allan M.R. MacRae, B.A.Sc., M.Eng., June 15, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/06/15/co2-global-warming-climate-and-energy-2/
Excel: https://wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Rev_CO2-Global-Warming-Climate-and-Energy-June2019-FINAL.xlsx
THE REAL CLIMATE CRISIS IS NOT GLOBAL WARMING, IT IS COOLING, AND IT MAY HAVE ALREADY STARTED
By Allan M.R. MacRae and Joseph D’Aleo, October 26, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/27/the-real-climate-crisis-is-not-global-warming-it-is-cooling-and-it-may-have-already-started/
_______________________________________________
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/11/05/cold-pattern-continues-for-much-of-the-us-with-the-next-impressive-arctic-blast-arriving-late-in-the-week-in-the-mid-atlantic-ne-us-and-another-one-early-next-week/#comment-2840609
[excerpt]
The highly competent forecasters at WeatherBell updated their August 2019 Winter forecast on October 31. I will share it if I am permitted to do so.
WeatherBell’s 2019-20 Winter Forecast reminds me of 2014-15 – warmish in the West and cold in the East, completely different from the U.S. government’s National Weather Service (NWS) Winter CFSv2 model, which again projects a warm winter across the USA. I’ll vote for the WeatherBell forecast – again.
As Yogi Berra said, “It’s like déjà vu all over again”.
The U.S. National Weather Service forecast a warm winter for 2014-15, and meteorologist Joe D’Aleo of WeatherBell called me in October 2014 to say he was concerned that the NWS forecast was seriously incorrect, and that the next winter would be particularly cold and snowy, especially in the populous Northeast. This was the second consecutive year that the NWS has made a very poor (excessively warm) Winter forecast.
Joe and I had been working together on a paper on Excess Winter Mortality, and we agreed that this incorrect “too-warm winter” NWS forecast was dangerous, especially if the country and its people were unprepared.
I proposed an approach, and we sent a presentation to my friend at the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). At the EIA’s request, Joe prepared a month-by-month, region-by-region USA Winter Forecast, and the EIA re-ran its winter energy demand calculations. Using Joe’s forecast, the EIA projected 11% more winter energy required for the USA than the “too-warm” NWS forecast had projected.
After that brutally cold and snowy winter, the actual energy used was 10% more than the EIA had projected using the NWS forecast, and just 1% less than Joe’s forecast. That is a huge amount of energy for the entire USA. I’m not sure if we saved any lives, but we definitely improved the EIA’s forecast of winter energy demand.
Regards, Allan
________________________________________
Following are two relevant papers co-authored by meteorologist Joe D’Aleo and me.
Our first co-authored paper was published in 2015 on Excess Winter Mortality. We had published the paper previously and then the excellent treatise by Gasparrini et al appeared in the Lancet, so we re-issued our paper including that valuable information.
WINTERS NOT SUMMERS INCREASE MORTALITY AND STRESS THE ECONOMY – NEXT MINI-ICE AGE APPROACHING?
By Joseph D’Aleo and Allan MacRae, July 5, 2015
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/new-and-cool/winters_not_summers_increase_mortality_and_stress_the_economy/
This is the second paper I’ve written with meteorologist Joseph D’Aleo. It concerns regional cooling and the major crop failure in the North-central growing area of North America in 2019.
THE REAL CLIMATE CRISIS IS NOT GLOBAL WARMING, IT IS COOLING, AND IT MAY HAVE ALREADY STARTED
By Allan MacRae and Joseph D’Aleo, October 26, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/27/the-real-climate-crisis-is-not-global-warming-it-is-cooling-and-it-may-have-already-started/
______________________________________________
You are funny Macrae. One cold air mass does not prove your predictions. Please learn the difference between climate and weather. Did you miss what happened in Paris this summer?
Are you aware what happened last year and the year before that same place same time,are you aware that the temp readings for Paris are heat trap readings taken from roofs and airports,are you aware of what constitutes a heatwave as opposed to what the press tell you. Try reading what Allan produces and reproduces Ta.
B d Clark, Macrae isn’t saying anything, all he’s doing is predicing “Here comes the cold” and is using this arctic blast to do so. He didn’t post anything when the heatwave hit ALL of Europe (which of course included Paris.)
And you failed to acknowledge the recorded temperatures in Europe were loaded ,Allan’s work goes back a lot longer than the last 3 years and hes been right,in his predictions ,look at the WMO for the standard definition of a heat wave youl find 3hot days do not make a heatwave, TA
B d Clark, you are funny. One blast of cold Arctic air does not prove Macrae’s predictions of coming cold.
“hes been right,in his predictions”
..
Nope, not a single one of his predictions has come to pass.
The good thing about Marxists like Karl is you always know where they are coming from. They are entirely consistent – they lie about everything.
Show us one of your “predictions” that have come to pass.
Karl
Show me one prediction that has come to pass.
How about this one made in 2002 (read Alan’s post above):
If solar activity is the main driver of surface temperature rather than CO2, we should begin the next cooling period by 2020 to 2030.
Phil: “we should begin the next cooling period by 2020 to 2030”
..
Hint: Today’s date is 11/14/2019
..
Strike one.
Thanks for pointing out the overlap its started early, observed, Ta
LOL: ” its started early”
…
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6/plot/uah6/from:2018
B d Clark there is no evidence cooling has started at all.
.
PS, there is no evidence that the main driver of surface temps is solar activity.
Karl – your lack of reading skills, or integrity, are apparent. I wrote above:
Allan MacRae modified his global cooling prediction in 2013 or earlier:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/02/study-predicts-the-sun-is-headed-for-a-dalton-like-solar-minimum-around-2050/#comment-1147149
3a. “I SUGGEST GLOBAL COOLING STARTS BY 2020 OR SOONER. BUNDLE UP.”
Weatherbell’s Winter Forecast for the USA is here – it was released in August and updated (only minor changes) on Oct. 31, 2019.
I just received permission to release it.
https://www.weatherbell.com/late-october-winter-forecast-update
Looks really good so far, and nothing like the USA’s National Weather Service Winter forecast, which is much warmer.
This reminds me of Winter 2014-2015. “It’s like déjà vu all over again.”
Here you go Allan I’ve not seen these temps and snow in this area for a very long time at this time of year. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-50376070
Thank you M.Clark.
I just published this note – I first tried two weeks ago but that attempt did not work.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/11/a-citizens-assembly-on-climate-change-is-the-cowards-way-out/
An Open Letter to the British Government
Our latest paper was published on October 26. 2019. Since then, record cold low temperatures have been experienced in North America, and centuries-old cold temperatures have re-occurred in the UK.
THE REAL CLIMATE CRISIS IS NOT GLOBAL WARMING, IT IS COOLING, AND IT MAY HAVE ALREADY STARTED
By Allan M.R. MacRae and Joseph D’Aleo, October 26, 2019
https://thsresearch.files.wordpress.com/2019/10/the-real-climate-crisis-is-not-global-warming.pdf
I am concerned – my 2002/2013 prediction of solar-driven global cooling by ~2020 on appears to be happening – in the UK, this could be “the perfect storm” for the elderly and the poor.
Foolish “green energy” policies have driven up energy costs in the UK, and Excess Winter Death Rates are up to three times higher in the UK than in the USA.
The British government should immediately institute an emergency energy-subsidy program for the elderly and the poor, to try to reduce the UK’s shocking high rate of Excess Winter Deaths. I would be pleased to provide assistance and supporting documents, without charge.
Regards, Allan MacRae
Calgary
Thanks Allan 19″ of global warming in Iran
https://youtu.be/jNwKfW9yl3k
Thank you Bd.
19″ of snow in Iran.
Heavy snow in Northern Europe.
Freeze and frost in 47 of Lower 48 states.
Hey all you warmists!
All together now:
“I blame global warming!”
(Sarc right off)
CSGW – Catastrophic Saurian-Induced Global Warming. The real reason the dinosaurs died out.
It has been very interesting to understand this stuff but if anyone has really noticed, we can’t change any of it. My God we are a strange species. Many of believe in God but so far I have not met Him face to face. Those who think they are Gods might wish to rethink that.
New video from Tony Heller:
… and this from Sky News Australia.
This piece was just published by Joe D’Aleo on the 2019 Midwest growing season – THAT FAILED DUE TO COLD WET WEATHER – THE OPPOSITE OF GLOBAL WARMING.
https://thsresearch.files.wordpress.com/2019/11/growing-season-challenges-from-start-to-finish.pdf
Told you so – 17 years ago.
Regards, Allan
One of my alarmist relatives explained it to me this way. Because global warming is heating up and melting the arctic twice as fast as the USA, the cold air has no where to go so it slides south. She did not take me laughing at her well.
Send her this link:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/11/11/no-global-warming-is-not-causing-more-frequent-arctic-outbreaks/
Is her name griff?
Doesn’t she kmow that everywhere is warming twice as fast as everywhere?
I thought the claim was…”everywhere is warming twice as fast as everywhere else!” which is quite funny when you think about it.
“Nobody goes the anymore. It’s too crowded.” (face palm) but it was Yogi Berra.
“I want everyone in America to have an above average income.”
Spoken by Jimmy Carter, a “nuclear engineer” from Annapolis. I guess the Navy doesn’t teach basic math to its “nuclear engineers”.
I think the term is “unclear engineer.”
That’s re-greta-ble. I heard she’s taking a catamaran to Spain.
At least she had some kind of explanation. Down in Oz we are having lots of fires and if you don’t agree with the GREENS that Climate Change is causing them, you are an arsonist. Simple!
Still some scope for further denigration then Mike, they haven’t adopted, climate denier arsonist yet….
Mike
At least your deputy PM has ripped into the pseudo suburban greens. More than anyone has done in the UK.
Very funny, but also very telling story.
Weather is complicated on all levels, but making it political witchcraft, has created the impression that mouth-to-mouth and political statements are correct and that everybody have the technical and logic skills to know how it works.
It is a bit the same as when modern witch doctors succeed in convincing non skeptics why witch doctor’s cure is better than the traditional doctor’s solution. – Back to nature or something.
By no means is this a general sign of low IQ. We are just all so wonderful different.
Yup, intelligence and wisdom can be two different things.
In the world of the two heading coin this is normal practice .
hence, why they can never answer what would disprove ‘climate doom’
You can bet that we will be told by the global warming alarmists sometime in December that this November is the warmest on record globally. And the number of deaths from the record cold in the US will never, EVER, be publicized by the mainstream media. That is just information we don’t need to have.
More likely that it is extremely warm in SE Europe, up to Ukraine and Moscow. That is in fact true, as the wavy jet stream has them on the warm side as western Europe is on the cold side of it.
A far cry from the whole world being hot.
Tim Gorman
Over here in england, they have already said the October was the hottest Ever 😂 It was windy, wet, cold.. I honestly do not remember one single warm/hot day.
unfortunately for ‘them’ England has a long term temperature record that is more trustworthy than most in a dishonest ‘scientific’ world, and that to the MO’s chagrin demonstrates quite the opposite for October and for the year to date.
In January our Met office confidently predicted, no ifs or maybes, that 2019 would be the hottest year ever in this series.
We don’t have crickets over here so I confidently expect just the sound of silence at year end.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
Sunny, I believe that the statement about October related to global, not UK, temperatures.
Roger, where is the Met Office prediction from January? I cannot see it in their archive of news items, but I’m not the best at looking!
All, there has been significant snow, with road closures, in Wales overnight. November 1st was balmy, with no coat needed in the evening, but it has been downhill ever since.
Here’s an excellent link, Tim – graphs of UK temperatures, rainfall and sunshine going back to 1910 from the Met Office:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-temperature-rainfall-and-sunshine-time-series
The media machine bears a heavy responsibility for the CO2 scare, and the unimaginably huge amounts of money that have been wasted (and continue to be) on ‘mitigating climate change.’
The IPCC was formed in 1988. What’s changed since that time?
Here in the UK, the Met Office has data from the real world (not a computer fantasy) going back to 1659.
I’m 70 years old, and I’ve lived here for all of that time. The British climate subjectively hasn’t changed, and the Met office data confirms this. We are being fed a constant barrage of lies by the media (not to mention the doom-mongering on the Met Office website itself!), abetted by useless unquestioning politicians who just go along with the prevailing scare. The pre-election environmental virtue signalling has already begun.
I’ve just looked through those Met Office graphs: how very unexciting they are! I must bookmark that link for future use.
I’m pleased that you liked the link, Susan – I got it from a website called ‘Not a Lot of People Know That’ run by Paul Holmewood here in England. There’s plenty of climate stuff there – well worth a visit!
You might also find these interesting:
Met Office link to CET (Central England Temperature Record:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat
Other databases available at the MetOffice:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/download.html
This link gives the three-month average temperatures per year:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/ssn_HadCET_mean.txt
Individual weather station data – Sutton Bonington for eaxmple;
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/suttonboningtondata.txt
Also useful:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries
General overview of the British climate:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_the_United_Kingdom
Rainfall data
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Rainfall/date/UK.txt
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/library-and-archive/archive-hidden-treasures/british-rainfall
Ah yes, One of the unique effects of Global Warming — the arctic blasts!
Exactly what Gore predicted.
Burn more fossil fuels and it will get colder!
(sarc)
I’ve observed an arctic blast discrepancy on the weather channel here in the mid-south US where so far we’re about 6F below the November average temp. Yesterday early, my weather channel app said 21F. Today, the weather channel monthly history shows yesterday’s low at 28F. Watts up with that! I checked weather underground and the low was 21F. The temp was actually below 28F for over 10 hrs. Who can I contact to note this discrepancy in the reported minimum temperature?
The issue is where WC gets its temperature data from. In areas that don’t have a NWS temperature station in the general area they use locals with acceptable weather stations (Vantage Pro II and the like) properly cited on their property. For instance the daily temperature for my unincorporated town comes from a local rancher that has a Vantage Pro II on his range. His ranch is about 6 miles west of the actual town. The backup site for the weather data is about 4 south of the primary site. I have a Vantage Pro II on my ranch but never invested in the software to pass the data on. My site is about 4 miles north of the town. Both the primary site and my site sit at 6000 ft altitudes. The difference is that the primary site in in a valley area and mine is at the top of the hills to the north. There almost always is a discrepancy between the reported data from the primary site and my site. It is caused by the topographical differences in our two stations.
IMO reporting the discrepancy will not result in any meaningful change.
chemman,
Thanks for detail but my location is more urban/metropolitan and within 20 miles of an international airport. WC = weather channel monthly history, WU = weather underground station near me.
Nov-11:
WC = 62F high, 28F low
WU = 63.5F high, 21.7F low
I can corroborate the reported WU low temp from several sources but the WC reports it as 28F, which is also the high for the next day Nov-12.
Wasn’t that the plot of The Day after Tomorrow?
We had snow for several hours in Urbanna, Virginia today.
Forecasting rain but no snow. I’ll bet the meteorologist will be glad when the weather complies with their models.
It’s hard to determine if forecasters care. I got this from engineer-brother yesterday–
“A real confidence booster for weather and climate forecasting:
Fort St. John BC
Temperature at 4:00 pm… -16.7 C
Forecast low… -14 C
Forecast issued… 4:00 pm
Temperature at 5:00 pm… -18.3 C
https://weather.gc.ca/past_conditions/index_e.html?station=yxj”
Apparently if you have a supercomputer, you don’t need or use a window or thermometer.
On the Environment Canada weather forecasts, I often see a currently reported temperature that exceeds a very recently forecast extreme. Given that Environment Canada seems to revise its forecasts every 15 min or so, it seems likely that somebody in the organization must notice that a forecast is often already wrong at the moment it is released. It is refreshing that they don’t try to hide the inadequacy of their models by automatically revising the projections to at least match the temperature at the moment the projection is released. Heaven only knows the dark place where the myriad forecast revisions are filed away and so it is unlikely that anybody would ever raise a stink over forecasts that were actually hindcasts. But much like climatologists, EC stands by its models, reality be damned. Pig headedness that is a wonder to behold.
It’s just weather! (That’ll be the rallying call!)
I wonder if we’ll see Joe Bastardi’s “bathtub slosh” effect, where the southerly meanderings of jet undulate back and forth between hemispheres.
Keep in mind that the anomalously high temps are still well below freezing for a large part of the map above.
What we need is it to snow in Madrid for COP25 next month (2-13 December).
Yes, and Greta Thunberg has found someone who will provide her with a boat ride across the Atlantic to Europe for the COPOUT25 Conference.
https://twitter.com/GretaThunberg/status/1194389911639642115.
How fortunate for her.
Given that operating a 48ft vessel requires a certain amount of mulah, I cant wait to see the background of her benefactors exposed.
It will no doubt turn out to be a some animals are more equal than others type of deal. 🙂
I know it doesn’t matter, but back in the day that sort of slang term for money was always spelled “moolah”!
From what I can tell so far, the professional skipper who will help sail the boat to Spain flew from the UK to the US to begin the trip.
Can I suggest people read the twitter feed above and especially the cartoon immediately under the first comments? Truly disturbing that if you voice an alternative opinion you are a troll . It seems the only correct opinion is the one that the ‘woke’ already hold.
tonyb
As tonyb points out, it is amazing that all comments are pure positive. So Facebook should change their name to Fakebook. Even Youtube is far better, there most of the negative comment usually remains unfiltered.
Selfish of me, but at least she is out of my country. Let the Spaniards deal with her hectoring for a while.
Currently Atlantic waves are between 12 & 26 ft;
Winds are between 18 & 32 kn
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-13.55,56.00,464/loc=-42.609,46.195
that’ll be a ‘relaxing trip’
Goodbye, and good riddance to her, but also bon voyage. She’s very mixed up, and brainwashed, but you have to admire her spirit, spunkiness, and adventurousness. One can only hope that her seafaring adventures will provide a groundedness and clearheadedness, possibly eventually leading her out of the fog of her brainwashing, and against Climatism.
Bruce, you said, “…but you have to admire her spirit, spunkiness, and adventurousness.”
At her age she doesn’t know any better. “Fools rush in where angels fear to tread.”
Are they going to make her help row?
CD in WI, wow, I just lost 30 seconds of my life looking at some of those twits. Low-intelligence would be understating the replies.
Greta found another sailboat to ride. Windy.com doesn’t make it look like it will be much fun.
Agreed,
A 48ft boat this time of year in the North Atlantic I suspect will not be a great holiday.
Hope it makes her schedule ok, and I especially hope they wont ruin things by using the motor:)
Cheers
Roger
I’m hoping for a prolonged windless period when her catamaran is half way across the Atlantic.
Follow them here:
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:4997037/mmsi:227497060/imo:0/vessel:LA_VAGABONDE
I’ve been in the North Atlantic this time of year and 50′ seas are not uncommon…
227497060 is the right number, but it seems they only have Class B AIS, so they are not going to be tracked offshore with that.
Another tracking link shows them out of range even now (last seen in the Caribbean!)
https://www.myshiptracking.com/vessels/la-vagabonde-mmsi-227497060-imo-
Their Facebook page confirms they are shipping Greta, but they don’t update it very often.
https://www.facebook.com/SailingLaVagabonde/
Photos of Greta sailing away here:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7681423/Greta-Thunberg-sets-sail-Europe-hitching-ride-Spain-catamaran.html
“‘We were kind of the only boat around the area that was willing to cross the Atlantic this time of year,’ said Carausu”
No one else was willing to make the trip, but those two are willing risk it with an 11-month old baby onboard? Doesn’t sound too bright.
Just have Al Gore show up at any sort of MM Global warming event… pretty much guarantees snow and/or icy cold.
I believe there is now a Reverse Greta – where she leaves gets really cold. Sweden has lots of early snow and the US is now getting record cold. If she sounds round the woyld fast enough we could probably solve Global Warming.
Well, so much for grandchildren never seeing snow… They will be digging their way through it.
Another COMPLETE FAILURE brought to you by…the Global Warming Religion.
Another early winter onset…. and century old low temp records falling. Hmmmm.
It’s making the myth of ‘Global Warming’ difficult for even the gullible to believe.
Now come along JMac, you know the rules. Record cold temperatures are simply weather events. Record high temperatures are evidence of climate change.
Rod,
I’m a realist engineer and this is the fundamental rule for realist engineers, aka scientists: If the allegations don’t fit the evidence in hand, the null hypothesis holds (natural climate change) and the hyperventilated AGW hypothesis is rejected.
Put simply, repeatedly yelling “Boogie Man!” is neither a convincing argument nor reality. Now, if you’ll excuse me, I need to put another log in the wood stove.
It is a combination of pressure change and convection that has a far greater effect on surface temperatures than LWIR absorption band radiation. How was a slight change in CO2 affect the speed of movement and temperature change observed in a passing cold front?
See, what happens.. 🙂 ….is that the See-OH!-Too causes the air to heat up and the pressure builds up just like after eating too many beans when the gas in your gut needs to find room – (until you make it an open system) – and this builds up and causes bulges in the jet stream. Get it?
Six weeks from official winter and upstate New York on NAMS falls to -19 C, -2 F in the morning, northern Florida to -3 C, or 26 F, and Houston to -1C, or 30 F.
Kinda like the 1970s really.
The Difference Between Meteorological Winter and Astronomical Winter
http://www.weatherdudes.com/facts_display.php?fact_id=30
From a meteorological viewpoint, winter is just 18 days away.
Winter is considered the entire months of Dec/Jan/Feb.
All seasons are, likewise, 3 months. Weather related records
are reported this way.
Which is the way I’ve counted it all my life.
Where I live Winter is more like Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, March plus a few days scattered around the rest of the year.
Jeff
When I lived in Vermont in the late-60s, the locals joked that Summer came on July 4th — and left on July 5th. The first year I was there, the last snow of Winter came on May 1st. The first snow came in mid-October during deer hunting season.
Living in Northern Minnesota in my childhood and adult life in North Dakota I have driven on snow and ice from late September to late April, Since I moved to Arizona full time in 2007 I missed the ice cover roads in early May.
Well, too far South to get dangerously cold weather, but Atlanta is forecasted to tie the 21 degree F record for the coldest Nov. 13th originally set in 1894.
Hate to imagine how cold the country would be without global warming. It may be ‘weather’, but the theory unequivocally holds that increased atmospheric CO2 must warm the air, and the effect is global. So this entire cold airmass must be warmer that it would have been without the CO2, right?
Average high7.8°C
Average low
0.0°C
Highest temperature (1937-2012)
19.7°C2012
Lowest temperature (1937-2012)
-7.8°C1937
Greatest precipitation (1937-2012)
32.4 mm1992
Greatest rainfall (1937-2012)
32.4 mm1992
Greatest snowfall (1937-2012)
4.6 cm1943
Most snow on the ground (1955-2012)
3.0 cm1983
Currently -9 in Euros.
Forgot
https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/on-143_metric_e.html
just testing…
just testing...end test.Does the urban heat island effect mean that such apparent low temperatures are actually even lower?
Certainly, depends on windspeed (winds reduce UHIE), but often 4 – 8 deg F or more for large cities compared to rural.
The temperature on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico in the US drops below 0 C.
Another cold front from Canada reaches North Dakota.
Does anybody have any facts on the sail boat greta is using to get to spain? The owner of the boat, the specs, how many people to run the boat, who is paying for it?
Also, has anybody found out how rich vile greta and her parents have become since she became only person who can save the world?? After all, she has quit school, so getting a job is going to be hard, how will she eat, or buy seeds when she has to plant her own food?
No, just that these people are only able to do this in the first place thanks technology that ‘evil fossil fuels’ she so strongly rejects , enables. Now how is that for irony.
Heres a vid of the boat and sailors, it does seem to have two motors you can see two throttles near the wheel and the white when the motors are running, https://youtu.be/9irKBfdPd44
Professional lifestyle bloggers. You know, the kind that travel around the world posting pictures of themselves in exotic places, with plenty of pictures of his attractive wife in a bikini. Obviously looking for fame. They’re bringing a professional sailor along.
numerous record low temperatures
Wait long enough and you will find through ‘adjustments ‘ this will not be the case .
It’s also well below average temps in the UK Scotland is very cold for the time of year,snow in the Welsh and Scottish mountains,Spain is having a lot of snow.
Circulation changes direction from east to west.
B d Clark
Spain is under strong Atlantic influence, we were there in October and we had a lot more strong wind from the west than usual. We were at the Mediterranean, but thought we would be in northern Portugal on the Atlantic coast.
Some people think this is due to the increasing influence of harsh perturbations in the Northwestern Atlantic. Too harsh to be explained with the usual ‘AMO soon goes down’ blah blah.
Perhaps St. Greta is not Pippi Longstocking at all; maybe she is the young woman who will grow up to be the White Witch in C.S.Lewis’s wonderful book “The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe.” If I remember correctly the White Witch is causing Narnia to freeze and she turns living creatures to stone. Perhaps she does so by saying vehemently, “How dare you!” I think I might be on to something here!
Good luck to the East U.S. as winter descends; perhaps the White Witch will get stuck in the Doldrums for a few weeks and you will thaw out. But she is young and her powers are growing. By her next visit to the U.S. she may be able to see heretical “denier” thoughts, just as she now sees CO2. Then all you heretics will get your comeuppance; turned to stone in a frozen land!
We have our lion, although he roars more than he should and they’re pretending to impeach him. Now if we can just find four English schoolchildren to save us from the evil!
Lions don’t tweet!
I think you might be on something, too. 🙂
http://coolwx.com/record/
looking at the rest of pennsylvania, you just KNOW that mann has left his suv idling near the weather station.
With less than 200 years of somewhat reliable temperature records in some parts of the world, high and low temp records will occur quite regularly. When we have 10000 years worth of widespread data, record temps will occur less frequently and have more gravity. Insinuating any meaning to extremes in the current dataset is unscientific to say the least. BTW, What is a “jet streak”?
while that is true, the margins by which new records are set have predictive value
Down here in the deep south, water that leaked through my Jeep’s soft top yesterday is frozen on the floor in the WeatherTech floor mats this AM.
If it wasn’t for polar vortexes, children wouldn’t know about cold and snow.
Running naked through an airliner… ?
A short story about my one interaction with the National Weather Service:
Years ago, late October, we were sailing west in the Atlantic heading back to our marina near Rock Hall, MD. The wind was 35 – 40 knots NNW, seas 6 -8 ft, temperature in the low 40s with light rain. We were under reduced sail doing 6+ knots. The boat was handling it beautifully. Even in those conditions it was fun.
Then we came to the Delaware Bay and turned north. The tide was against us, with a 3 foot chop, close hauled we were going nowhere. With the motor at 80% throttle we were managing about 2 knots. My wife was at the helm and I was taking constant sightings (this was before good GPS) to navigate through the numerous shoals. In short, we were getting our butts kicked.
Then we hear on channel 16, “This is the National Weather Service, Lewes, Delaware. Can anyone tell us what the weather is like out on the bay?” I thought it better to not reply.
Good thing Earl Hackett didn’t have Greta aboard, who would have turned off the motor (How dare you!), and Earl and his wife would have drifted south for hours waiting for the tide to turn…
Back in the 1980s I worked at an observatory in the Andes pre cordillera. The weather forecast consisted of two telexes, one from Santiago 500 km south, the other from Antofagasta similarly distant to the north. Then we interpolated (!). During the 1982/83 El Nino the weather in the whole of Chili was so bad that one day we got the message on the telex: ‘hoy no tiempo por causa del tiempo’, there is no weather forcast today because of the weather.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-50401308,
We are facing a severe winter in the northern hemisphere. This year, unlike in previous years, the Barents Sea freezes very quickly.
You need to get over to Venice, they have the highest water level since 1966 and it’s apparently because of climate change and at he same time that Venice is sinking.
Venice is sinking.
What were they doing in 1966?
Surely England winning the [Soccer] World Cup didn’t cause the waters to rise?
Tho’ England won a Cricket World Cup [well, give or take . . .] earlier this year.
Did Fiat invent the SUV in about 1959? How did we miss that?
Auto
Yesterday, on one US major national network TV show (begins with N and ends with C) there was a segment about 5 minutes long discussing the chance that up to 100 records for cold temperatures could be set between today and tomorrow for the cold spell hitting the Mississippi valley region up to Northeastern states. But there was not one mention of “climate change” at any point in said segment.
In contrast, a few cities set a few record hot temperatures for a few particular days of last summer, and the MSM was overflowing with reports that this was clear evidence of “climate change”.
. . . something about hidden agenda therein.
The current situation is compatible with the Wolf Minimum.
https://urbancoldspots.blogspot.com/2019/11/il-nord-america-entra-nella-little-ice.html?m=1
Al
“The current situation is compatible with the Wolf Minimum.”
Certainly it isn’t. As far as I recall, a Wolf Minimum is a global event.
What North America has been experiencing for some years is very local, and has imho more to do with distorted tropospheric polar vortexes over that (small) part of the Earth than with the Sun.
Some think the tropopause is leaky above that place, and lets more and more cold streams pass down to the lower troposphere and from there to the surface.
Wait and see.
Extremely low magnetic activity of the Sun.
?time=1573668063000
If you think winter will be warm in the northern hemisphere, this is a big mistake.
For my little spot on the globe, the 12th and the 13th of November did actually set new record lows for those dates.
Both of the previous record lows were set in 1911.
Now both new low records have been set in 2019, at the height of Global Warming.
(Tiljander?)
This morning (the 14th) I tuned into the The Storm Channel (on mute) before going to work.
The seemed ecstatic that the could finally report on a large number of new records (I’m sure they would have preferred new record highs to new record lows).
They flashed up a bunch of old records and the years they set but now broken.
1911 showed up quite a bit. Even for old record lows in the deep South.
My take away?
This cold wave in November has happened before.
It is NOT a sign of “Climate Change”.
Concord NH set a record for lowest high temperature for the date. Winds overnight prevented radiational cooling from breaking the low temperature record. (OTOH, that was some pretty impressive cold air advection.) Clouds are expected tonight, so we likely won’t break a low temperature record. Other places in NH with shorter records broke low temp records though.
Old: 30°F in 1894 (data goes back to 1868)
New: 25°F. Breaking a 125 year old record by five degrees is stunning!
Is there anything global warming cannot do?
Ric Werme
Are you serious? You are talking about a record break at -3 °C as if that had been -30!
What about these below?
-USS0010D24S MT_Placer_Basin_______________ 2014 11 12 -38.2
-USS0010D24S MT_Placer_Basin_______________ 2014 11 11 -36.9
-USC00488884 WY_THERMOPOLIS_9NE____________ 2014 11 14 -36.7
Wyoming and Montana are hundreds of miles away from the nearest ocean, and have multiple mountain ranges between them and the Pacific.
Concord is less than 100 km to the Atlantic, and is about 100 meters above sea level.
Your data seems to be the all-time coldest, that’s not what impresses me. Were all those records broken this week, and by how much? We very rarely see 125 year-old records set by nearly 3°C
I think you’re comparing apples with hockey pucks.
The Atlantic front shows that the jet stream is moving far south. That is why it is snowing in Spain and France. High pressure over Scandinavia.
Winter began on November 13, 2019 in the northeast US.
16F (-9C) overnight lows here in US mid-Appalachians several times this past week (and attendant show-showers). A bit unusual, not not that much — there was a fairly big snowstorm this time last year. Doesn’t mean I like it……
North America and Scandinavia are the two places where glacial growth nucleated the massive NH glaciation of the last glacial maximum. About 20-25,000 years ago. So exceptional cold and ice in those places now is of special interest.
The solar minimum starts to stretch out its fangs. And that’s just the beginning. Vienna is pretty cold as well. Next year the Minimum will develop its effect for the first time and from there it will get worse every year. A new mini ice age looms and we will freeze. Many will wish that the Alarmists would have been right. Let’s see how long it takes for people to go to the streets when they find out that their energy security is bye-bye.