Rainfall Trends in India Show No Climate Fatigue

by Vijay Jayaraj

Climate is particularly important to farmers in agrarian countries. Drought could mean the difference between life and death.

India, for example, is predominantly agrarian. Of the country’s 1.3 billion people, 300 million, nearly a fourth, are poor even by Indian standards, and millions of others are on the borderline. So, agriculture is a big deal.

Climate alarmists argue that the world has been progressively warming in recent decades (due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions) and that this has altered the normal rainfall pattern. Almost all major climate reports warn about the dangerous effects of climate change on rainfall in India.

However, the claims are false.

There is no “normal rainfall pattern” in India

The rainfall pattern in India has never been stable. There have been small epochal trends lasting a few decades, but their onset is unpredictable.

The graph below shows the highly unpredictable and wildly swinging nature of the summer monsoon rainfall pattern in India between 1871 and 1990. It is literally impossible to predict the future rainfall pattern in India.

image001

All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (1871–2016). Figure Source: (IIITM, 2017)

No Negative Impact of Modern Anthropogenic Climate Change

Though there is no “normal rainfall” pattern, current rainfall trends can be compared to decadal averages and means to see if, and how much, rainfall intensity has deviated from specific baselines.

Annual rainfall for 113 years (1901–2013) reveals no negative footprint of anthropogenic global warming (AGW). Departures from the 113-year average during the recent decades of AGW were not unprecedented. Similar departures (positive and negative) have occurred in the past too.

Fig: Annual Rainfall (mm) between 1901 and 2013.
Data Source: (Government of India, 2014)

If anything, a revival of the monsoon has been recorded since 2002. Research published in Nature Climate Change revealed that summer monsoon rainfall (June–September) has increased in India at 1.34 mm per decade since 2002.

With the varied and complex climatic history stretching back through 100 years, it is difficult to predict the nature or timing of future interannual and decadal changes in monsoon rainfall.

Call it climate change or global warming, either way, it seems to have had no undesirable impact on India’s rainfall.

Vijay Jayaraj (M.Sc., Environmental Science, University of East Anglia, England), Research Contributor for the Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation.

[A new graph was added on “Area Weighted Rainfall” as the original was not visible to some readers. Mod]

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Alexander Vissers
October 3, 2019 10:11 am

It is nog very useful to look for trends in highly erratic patterns me thinks.

Steve Richards
Reply to  Alexander Vissers
October 3, 2019 10:25 am

That comment sums up climate science….

climanrecon
Reply to  Alexander Vissers
October 3, 2019 1:05 pm

Getting a trend in rainfall data requires Trick 1 from dodgy stats 101: a carefully selected short period of time. Its difficult to get a long term trend in data that cannot go negative. Both Cape Town and Perth Australia, posters children for fatal AGW-driven droughts, fail to show any long term trend when data back to the 19th century are examined. Here is Perth as an example:

https://diymetanalysis.wordpress.com/2019/09/27/example-07-perth-wa-rainfall/

Ron Long
Reply to  Alexander Vissers
October 3, 2019 1:08 pm

That’s right, Alex V, if you want to look for nog you should look in eggs.

Ian Wilson
Reply to  Alexander Vissers
October 4, 2019 7:07 am

The 60-year pattern that appears in the All India Summer Monsoon rainfall between about 1828 and 1990.

comment image

This graph appears in the upper right-hand corner of the following graph. This second graph shows that a similar 60-year pattern appears in the strength of the trade-winds in the tropical North Atlantic.

comment image

Dave Cowdell
October 3, 2019 10:47 am

The Daily Telegraph on Tuesday had a splash headline ” Worst monsoon kills 110″ I would have thought that a poor monsoon would be the worst.

Curious George
October 3, 2019 10:54 am

The author must be very brave, working for the University of East Anglia.

John Tillman
Reply to  Curious George
October 3, 2019 11:26 am

I don’t think he works there, but got a degree at UEA.

He’s associated with the Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation.

https://cornwallalliance.org/

Vijay Raj Jayaraj
Reply to  John Tillman
October 3, 2019 10:43 pm

Thats right

Joel O'Bryan
October 3, 2019 11:11 am

“Climate Fatigue”????

Not a phrase I would use.
I’m getting older, so more easily do I fatigue when working.
And I’m growing weary of the climate scammers and their hustle to destroy my currently affordable electricity and travels.

But climate? Climate just “is”. It doesn’t wear out. It doesn’t get tired. It doesn’t fatigue.

icisil
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
October 3, 2019 1:58 pm

Climate fatigue is having to listen to the same climate dog sh!t over and over and over.

lance
October 3, 2019 11:17 am

Well that won’t get him any funding! (but at least he called it like it is!)

Clyde Spencer
October 3, 2019 11:19 am

The “Annual Rainfall” figure is blank on my screen.

TedL
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
October 3, 2019 11:41 am

mine, also

John Tillman
October 3, 2019 11:24 am

Studies on correlation and causation between the ISM and solar cycle, with papers from 2014 to 1989.

Solar cycle effects on Indian summer monsoon dynamics

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014JASTP.121..145R

Large difference found in Tropical Easterly Jet from solar maximum to minimum:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682614001370

Solar forcing of Indian summer monsoon variability during the Ållerød period:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3782882/

The Indian summer monsoon during peaks in the 11 year sunspot cycle

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2012GL051977

Last 12 million years:

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/ed4e/7f0907a8395677c588cdce2ce5ece6e5abc6.pdf

Associations between the 11‐year solar cycle and the Indian Summer Monsoon system:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2007JD008996

Influence of the solar activity on the Indian Monsoon rainfall

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/248293739_Influence_of_the_solar_activity_on_the_Indian_Monsoon_rainfall

Foraminiferal Evidences for 77-Year Cycles of Droughts in India and Its Possible Modulation by the Gleissberg Solar Cycle (requires registration to read for free):

https://www.jstor.org/stable/4298414?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents

The solar cycle and Indian rainfall:

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF00867947

KO
October 3, 2019 11:49 am

Very interesting thank you Mr Jayaraj. Is there any correlation, whether lagged or otherwise, between monsoon rainfall and solar cycles/solar wind?

vukcevic
Reply to  KO
October 3, 2019 12:22 pm

See my comment further below

John Tillman
Reply to  KO
October 3, 2019 12:38 pm

I posted a lot of links, 1989-2014, on that topic, but too many, I guess, since the comment is still in moderation.

Fran
October 3, 2019 11:51 am

I was in central India in 1961, and the floods were impressive. The Narmuda river rose 60 feet, measured on the railway bridge. Brown water overflowed the nalahs by many feet. Interestingly, the main N-S road which passed our home (one tar sealed lane then) went through a low area about a mile up, and the causeway built by British engineers more than 100 years before was at least 6 feet above the flood; if I recall correctly, the railway bridge was had at least 20 feet leaway above the flood.

vukcevic
October 3, 2019 12:10 pm

Few years ago I looked at Himalayan monsoons and found significant components with periods ( years)
– 4.5 (elNino)
– 6.3 ?
– 16.1 see below
– 21.8 Hale (solar magnetic field cycle)
– 28 ?
Any ideas where 6.3 or more importantly 28 year periodicities might come from?
In all my research of climate related data 16.1 years was only found in the Arctic temperature data, I have no idea if a direct link exist.
However there is 16.1 year periodicity in the Earth’s inner core differential rotation. One possibility is that the massive volumes of water from equatorial region of the Indian ocean are moved from low latitude to higher latitude thus affecting rate of rotation due to changes in the angular momentum, whereby greater inertia of heavy metallic inner core results in its differential rotation. The 16.1 year periodicity is also second most significant component in the Earth’s magnetic field variability spectrum, but this of course is directly related to the above mentioned differential rotation.

DR Healy
October 3, 2019 12:36 pm

That graph looks a lot like the 500-year graph for California I saw a while back. Highly variable from year to year but no significant long-term trend. A drought for a moderate period followed by two years of heavy rains, then repeat.

October 3, 2019 2:05 pm

It is going to excess in the next few decades. You can figure it out from my report. Click on my name.

bwegher
October 3, 2019 2:18 pm

Global land mean monthly precipitation anomaly since 1900 shows flat trend
Goto KNMI explorer
http://climexp.knmi.nl/selectfield_obs.cgi?someone@somewhere
Scroll down to third line under “precipitation” click on 1900-now anomalies: NCDC analysis (land)
Then back to top of column and click on “select field”
the next page allows filtering, but for all data just click “make time series” to plot the data
the resulting png plot is copied here

https://photos.google.com/photo/AF1QipMoRWD1n3YHGDxwzVCNS7zggEtI3-6EDxkEVd_d

Stevek
October 3, 2019 4:09 pm

These climate alarmist have a very low view of human ingenuity. They seem to think man cannot adapt and are at the mercy of his environment.

High Treason
October 3, 2019 6:21 pm

To quote Professor Andy Pitman AO from a recent climate thing at the (very left) Sydney University recently. I was there-nearly fell off my chair scrambling for my note pad. Transcription below made for Lord Monckton, so please share it around-
“I’ll answer the first bit and this may not be what you expect to hear, but as far as the climate scientists know,there is no link between climate change and drought. Now that may not be what you read in the newspapers and sometimes hear commented, but there is no reason a priori why climate change should make the landscape more arid and if you look at the bureau pf meteorology data over the whole of the last 100 years, there’s no trend in the data, there’s no trend. There’s been a drying trend in the last 20 years but there’s been no drying trend in the last 100 years and that’s an expression of how variable the Australian rainfall climate is. There is in some areas and not in other regions. So the fundamental problem we have is we don’t understand what causes drought and much more interesting, is we don’t know what stops drought. Well, we know it’s rain, but we don’t know what lines up to create drought breaking rains and that’s an area of very active research.”

Looks like drought caused by climate change is off the talking points list for warmists. If they go in to tantrums over drought being caused by climate change, bring this up. Then intimate that other aspects of bad things caused by “climate change” that get bandied around might also be a wrong.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  High Treason
October 4, 2019 5:50 am

ta for that
guess hes retiring or has a good grip on something/one? to avoid being “ridded”

stuffed if I can see why we dont silveriodide bomb some clouds
n Make it bloody well rain!

October 4, 2019 10:30 am

For the SH [including RSA] I think the drought time is coming to an end now soon, according to my calculation. It is starting now in the NH
[click on my name to read my report on that]

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