Wrong Again: 50 Years of Failed Eco-pocalyptic Predictions

From the YouTube description:

Modern doomsayers have been predicting climate and environmental disaster since the 1960s. They continue to do so today. None of the apocalyptic predictions with due dates as of today have come true. What follows is a collection of notably wild predictions from notable people in government and science.

More than merely spotlighting the failed predictions, this collection shows that the makers of failed apocalyptic predictions often are individuals holding respected positions in government and science. While such predictions have been and continue to be enthusiastically reported by a media eager for sensational headlines, the failures are typically not revisited.

Please share this video, which The Heartland Institute put together with the permission and help of our friends at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, who compiled this report.

Thanks go to Tony Heller, who first collected many of these news clips and posted them on RealClimateScience. https://realclimatescience.com/ For more information about what’s really going on with our climate, visit Climate Change Reconsidered and the archive of the International Conferences on Climate Change at the links below. http://climatechangereconsidered.org/


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Grant Willetts
September 30, 2019 6:22 pm

Yay. Have waited for someone to collate this. (I’m too time poor and lazy). Thank you!!

Grant Willetts
Reply to  Grant Willetts
September 30, 2019 6:26 pm

Blah – should have watched it first…not as I had hoped.

Reply to  Grant Willetts
September 30, 2019 10:00 pm

The IPCC and its minions have been “crying wolf” for decades, and have yet to make a correct prediction – every one of their scary global warming predictions has failed to materialize – they have a perfectly negative predictive track record, and thus have perfect negative credibility – no intelligent person should believe them.

Then there is their “ocean acidification” fantasy – which is just a ridiculous falsehood – the oceans are alkaline and will stay that way.

Then there is the “climate deniers in the pay of oil companies” fantasy – the energy companies have generally acquiesced to the global warming scam as “the path of least resistance”, and have thus abandoned the welfare of their shareholders and the public. I disrespect their cowardly acquiescence.

I have not received one dime from anyone for my writing on this subject – except for a small payment from the Globe and Mail for an article in 2002. I do this because it is the right thing to do.

When confronted by global warming fanatics, I point out that fossil fuels comprise ~85% of global primary energy, unchanged in decades and unlikely to change in future decades. As a member of that industry I am responsible for keeping their families from freezing and starving to death. They are welcome to try to live without fossil fuels – but they won’t last long.

Tom Abbott
October 1, 2019 5:34 am

“they have a perfectly negative predictive track record, and thus have perfect negative credibility – no intelligent person should believe them.”

I think that sums it up nicely. 🙂

They are wrong every time. What does that tell you? Answer: They will probably be wrong in the future, too, becasue they are basing their predictions on unsubstantiated claims about the greenhouse gas CO2 and how it behaves with regard to the Earth’s atmosphere.

There is no evidence that CO2 adds net heat to the Earth’s atmosphere, but all the climate scaremongers claims are based on CO2 adding specific amounts of net heat to the Earth’s atmosphere, so their failed claims of disaster disprove that CO2 is doing what they claim it should be doing.

Does CO2 add net heat to the Earth’s atmosphere? Noone knows. Yet all these claims by the climate change scaremongers are based on their speculation that CO2 does add net heat to the Earth’s atmosphere, yet all their predictions are wrong. That means their basic assumptions are wrong. Back to the Drawing Board!

Craig from Oz
September 30, 2019 6:35 pm

Only recently been exposed to the Blue Steam.

Was this some sort of abstracted metaphor or was this a literal fear from this man.

I mean even my simple non Greta Blessed mind can understand that cooling = ice age and heating = an improved standard of living, lower death rates, increased bio-diversity, increased food and, ummm, Walrus cliff diving, but how exactly does this blue steam work?

Gunga Din
Reply to  Craig from Oz
October 1, 2019 2:47 pm

An old “smoke screen”? 😎
But the “Blue Steam” horror is new to me also.

September 30, 2019 7:00 pm

Some of my favorites. The tough thing is sometimes these links get taken down 🙁

“U.N. Predicts Disaster if Global Warming Not Checked
June 29, 1989
UNITED NATIONS (AP) _ A senior U.N. environmental official says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000…”


… Mr. Brown suggested that the drought may never entirely end, and that the state needed to adapt to life with less water…”

“Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past
By Charles Onians

Britain’s winter ends tomorrow with further indications of a striking environmental change: snow is starting to disappear from our lives…”


“Now the Pentagon tells Bush: climate change will destroy us
· Secret report warns of rioting and nuclear war
· Britain will be ‘Siberian’ in less than 20 years
· Threat to the world is greater than terrorism
Mark Townsend and Paul Harris in New York
Sat 21 Feb 2004 20.33 EST”


“Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’
By Jonathan Amos
Science reporter, BBC News, San Francisco
Arctic summer melting in 2007 set new records
More details
Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice….”


Reply to  Derg
September 30, 2019 8:33 pm

Thanks Derg, I find your list a lot more interesting than the video, which is pretty weak.

Reply to  Derg
October 1, 2019 3:14 am

Re. Links getting taken down: copy and paste into a document now!

John Endicott
Reply to  Carbon500
October 1, 2019 9:45 am

When you find an active link, you should see add it to the wayback machine/internet archive

I’ve just added the guardian article:

BBC article was already there:

September 30, 2019 7:00 pm

Here’s a good list too, with photos of newspaper articles, letters, etc.:


Bryan A
Reply to  Robert Kernodle
September 30, 2019 10:55 pm

I like this one from the Grauniad…(If it’s in the Grauniad it must be true)
January 29, 1974
Space satellites show New Ice.Age coming fast

Reply to  Bryan A
October 1, 2019 12:15 am

Grand solar minimum, might be ‘right’….

Flight Level
September 30, 2019 7:04 pm

One day their models will predict a warm cooling and a new, even more frustrated Greta will be charged to desperately sell it.

Reply to  Flight Level
October 1, 2019 11:50 am

Along with the dry rain…

September 30, 2019 7:15 pm

I think the following video better captures how utterly ridiculous the warnings are [you probably will not make it all the way through, especially after the point where you start laughing]:


Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Robert Kernodle
October 1, 2019 12:21 pm

This was a good video.
I found it very effective, and the rapid fire pace gives one an idea of the vast amount of often completely contradictory predictions, forecasts, and fake news that has been generated by the climate mafia over just the past dozen or two years..

September 30, 2019 7:34 pm

The real number of failed predictions attributed to AGW is in the thousands. Someone was tracking and tabulating them but gave up years ago because the shear volume was too time consuming. If you want to get an alarmist’ goat just ask them for one prediction caused by AGW that has come to pass. Just one.

Dave N
Reply to  markl
September 30, 2019 8:09 pm

Sadly, a number of alarmists claim that many have “come true” despite there being zero proof.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Dave N
September 30, 2019 8:43 pm

A poster over at the SMH here in Australia has just made the claim that over the last 100 years 60% of all species has gone extinct. I have no idea where these people get this information from.

Roger Knights
Reply to  Patrick MJD
September 30, 2019 10:28 pm

He’s misinterpreting a report that says, IIRC, that the NUMBER or critters has declined by that amount, not the number of species.

Reply to  Roger Knights
October 1, 2019 3:08 am

I want a complete list of the 100% and the complete list of what is gone.

Reply to  Patrick MJD
October 1, 2019 3:49 am

Look for Matt Ridley’s videos or the blog posts on his site where you might want to start with this one to terrify yourself http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/wind-still-making-zero-energy/

Matt is a Zoologist and tells us the main cause of species decline are invasive species (Rats particularly) nothing to do with climate change.

Indeed, I’ll quote this from memory so the details won’t be quite right however, excluding islands including Australia, and discounting sub species, there have been only 9 extinctions in the last several hundred years globally (not sure of the time frame but it’s in the ball park).

I also believe there is not one single documented species extinction in tropical rain forest’s, in fact, scientists are continually discovering more species.

One of the sleights of hand these fakirs utilise is to sub divide, say, a species of frog by area/colour/spots/habitat/etc until it’s down to minute communities which do die out so they count this as an extinction. Meanwhile, another version of the frog evolves somewhere else, which they don’t announce, but it’s essentially the same frog.

Reply to  HotScot
October 1, 2019 5:34 am

I watched a BBC program on big cats in Africa and they claimed that the Cheetah is extinct in 27 countries. But a country is an arbitrary polygon/sub-division, it only indicates its area or range has reduced, not that it is extinct.

On that basis I now point out to people that hedgehogs are extinct in my garden. I expect hedgehogs are now extinct in thousands of gardens across the UK.

See how easy it is to create an extinction meme?

In the UK it is often claimed that wolves (and several other species) are extinct, but as they exist elsewhere in Europe what that really means is wolves (and several other species) are absent from the UK, not that they are extinct.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  HotScot
October 1, 2019 5:43 am

“these fakirs”

Good description! 🙂

Jeff in Calgary
Reply to  HotScot
October 1, 2019 10:23 am

I think the technical term is “Extirpated”

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  HotScot
October 1, 2019 12:09 pm

99% of all the creatures who have ever lived on the Earth are now extinct from my yards and properties.
Crowded out by the profuse abundance of the ones that are not, no doubt.

Reply to  HotScot
October 1, 2019 5:42 pm

OMG Cheetas are extinct in North and South America too!

John Endicott
Reply to  Dave N
October 2, 2019 10:51 am

Sadly, a number of alarmists claim that many have “come true” despite there being zero proof.

and yet, when pressed, they can never give the specifics of a single one of those “many”.

Craig from Oz
Reply to  markl
October 1, 2019 12:19 am

The problem is that they will refuse to believe you.

A Leftist mindset revolves around an utter certainty that they know the full truth and by extension, know what is best. On a good day and on a harmless topic this can help make a Left very focused on a topic and happy in the supporting group of fellow truth knowing individuals. Lefties honestly believe that things would be better if only they (or, by variation, someone they follow) was in charge. Other people are doing it WRONG.

The problem is that this whole truth because so internally self supporting that individual sections cannot be removed without breaking up the entire structure. This is why Lefties often fail to understand Conservatives. Their ‘truth’ is linked and cannot be mixed. If they like red, cats and nutmeg they cannot understand how you can like red, dogs and nutmeg. If you like dogs then CLEARLY you must also hate red and nutmeg. Facts are associated, not independent. You cannot do something rational like support red and nutmeg while also being irrational by not liking cats.

Because in a Leftie mind all facts are linked they cannot accept that one ‘fact’ may in fact be wrong. That would imply other things are also wrong and mean their entire life has been one big lie.

Hence when you confront Lefties and/or Warmies with pragmatic arguments – ‘one prediction that has actually come true’ or ‘wind may be free, but wind farms do not grow on trees’ – they will avoid the question. What you are saying is not important. It doesn’t matter if not all of the predictions came true, it was the important of the warning. We said ‘could’ come true, not ‘would’, so it was only a suggestion, not a real prediction. Or, that none of it matters because polar bears no longer have drowned pacific islands in the burnt Amazon Rainforest.

Yes, one can easily get the goat of a Leftie, but that still doesn’t mean they will ever believe in you.

Reply to  Craig from Oz
October 1, 2019 3:54 am

Craig from Oz

Nice illustration mate but I like to frame it thus:

Conservatives aspire to making everyone wealthy.
Socialists conspire to make only themselves wealthy.

But Churchill put it very concisely:

Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery.

Reply to  Craig from Oz
October 1, 2019 4:50 am

Brainwashing is not a pretty thing.

Dan Lucking
Reply to  Craig from Oz
October 2, 2019 1:36 am

To be fair to the left, there are socialists who disbelieve the general climate change consensus too – Piers Corbyn for one. There are also many conservatives who believe they are utterly right and that they know what’s best for everyone, and will not accepr any counterargument. Boneheadedness is widespread indeed, but it’s not limited to a particular political leaning

John Endicott
Reply to  Dan Lucking
October 2, 2019 8:42 am

While true that it’s not limited to a particular political leaning, it’s certainly more widespread on the left side of the isle these days, particularly since “orange man bad” was elected president.

Gary Pearse
September 30, 2019 8:46 pm

Disappointed in this meagre effort. British cleric and economist Thomas Malthus in 1798 predicted famine and misery on a grand scale and the end of civilization because population growth was outstripping resource availability. His famous treatise made “Malthusian” a popular term to this day. Stanley Jevons in mid 19th Century said the Industrial Revolution will grind to a halt early in the 20th Century because we would run out of coal. This would bring… yadda yadda yadda.

I retain a little respect for these two early gents, but clones like Ehrlich of Berkeley and the Club of Rome in the 1970s, knew what massive strides in technology mankind was capable of. Yet they displayed more naive linear thinking with masses more available data than available to the original Malthusians. Giving Ehrlich and the Flub of Rome a calculator “…is like giving an idiot child a machine gun.” (Erlich on giving mankind cheap energy).

Reply to  Gary Pearse
October 1, 2019 7:54 am

Having your name live on through the ages, for being spectacularly wrong.
How embarrassing.

Reply to  MarkW
October 1, 2019 5:57 pm

…or your name will be Mudd.
History may retain the name, but it also will forget the man who lent his moniker to the ignominy.
Ever heard of Antoine de Silhouette? Probably not, but almost every one knows what a silhouette is.
A lessor infamy, but perhaps Mann will join the rogues gallery of charlatans and fakirs.

John Endicott
Reply to  Rocketscientist
October 2, 2019 10:43 am

The fact that the man could be named (and can easily be looked up in seconds by anyone who cares) shows that history hasn’t forgotten him. Joe average citizen might not remember/know the man, but then Joe average citizen doesn’t remember/know a lot of things (ever watch one of those “man on the street” interviews asking people simple questions?) that just speaks to the level of ignorance of Joe average citizen.

September 30, 2019 10:26 pm

Sorry but IMO: Badly done video, spends too much initially showing nothing which means people will go away, sounds too hoolywoodesque, and the crop technique, animation certainly does not help people reading.

Reply to  AlexS
October 1, 2019 3:57 am


You are most welcome to make a better attempt.

September 30, 2019 11:51 pm

Very disappointing video. With such a wealth of failed predictions on record and a legion of well known politicians, scientists and celebrities whose utterings have been immediately contradicted by the actual weather, this should have been much, much better and punchier. In football (soccer) terms, Heartland had an ‘open goal’ and missed it by a country mile.

October 1, 2019 12:19 am

Maltha to my recollection said, “”When a species exceeds its food
supply it will die””.

So whir is wrong with that, it applies to all life forms , not just ours.

The increase in CO2 plus the work of farmers mainly in the West, is what is keeping what is clearly far too many people alive.

If such a food supply should cease for whatever reason millions of people will die.


Reply to  Michael
October 1, 2019 4:04 am


If such a food supply should cease for whatever reason millions of people poor people will die.

The human race has yet to exceed its food supply globally so far; and according to the UN, global population will increase to around 9bn around the turn of the century (from memory) following which it will naturally begin a slow decline as wealth becomes widespread and birth rates fall because of it.

Reply to  HotScot
October 1, 2019 7:58 am

When I was a kid, the UN was predicting that the population would continue to grow until about the middle of the next century and the peak population would be about 11 billion.
In my opinion the UN is still too alarmist. The peak will be sooner and lower.

Jeff in Calgary
Reply to  HotScot
October 1, 2019 10:28 am

That 9 billion UN prediction was not scary enough, so they have revised it to 20 billion

Reply to  Michael
October 1, 2019 7:56 am

On what basis do you claim that there are far too many people?
Yes, there are still poor people, but on the whole, people are living much better than they did in the past.

Reply to  MarkW
October 1, 2019 2:26 pm

Many of the poor are better off than they the poor of past generations as well.

Nicholas McGinley
October 1, 2019 1:20 am

Did I see the right video?
It was only one minute4 and twenty seconds long?
Having said that, one more you tube video is not gonna make enough difference to change anything.
We need to have these broadcast on national television in every country, over and over again, every day, for as long as it takes. Not weeks and not a few months, or even a year.
As long as it takes.
Every day, over and over.

Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
October 1, 2019 4:06 am

Nicholas McGinley

Alternatively, you can share it on FaceBook and Twitter.

It worked for Trump.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  HotScot
October 1, 2019 12:04 pm

I do share many videos, and will share this one.
But I think most of the people that are likely to see it have already seen many others.
Nothing wrong with it at all, and I am not criticizing.
I am saying we need to find ways to reach people other than the ones who have already seen this material.
And more than a few.
We need everyone to see this material skeptics have gathered and, for see it enough times to be familiar with it.
For those who have been brainwashed, we need for it to penetrate the dense bony layers of their overly thickened skulls, which may take many repetitions.
For some, the brain has been completely enclosed in, or even transformed to, an impenetrable concrete-like ossification, making new knowledge unable to squeeze in, possibly no matter what.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  HotScot
October 1, 2019 12:07 pm

BTW…I have been fighting and arguing about global warming for nearly the entire past 30 years.
Prior to discovering this site and some other blogs, I was doing so elsewhere.
I spent a bunch of years on FB nearly every day.
But I found as time went by that it was becoming impossible to even speak to new people there in a way which engaged anyone.
After Trump was elected, the people on the left pretty much shut down all communication with anyone who was not in the echo chamber with them…IOW they stopped talking to sane people.

October 1, 2019 4:57 am

Really, it isn’t just 50 years of failed predictions. There has always been some wanker with an agenda out on the street, trying to scare the pants off people into giving him money or following him. That guy I used to see at lunchtime, the one who had the old-fashioned sandwich board with stuff about space aliens all over it, frequently made more sense. And he admitted that he was just doing that to see how much money people would give him. 🙂

The whole thing is a scam and nothing but a scam, and it’s all about ‘gimme yer cash or else – whatever – ‘ and in the end, with enough hammering and proselytizing at people, the crowd stops listening and goes elsewhere. Yes, they have some dedicated followers, but the real hippies are in their 70s now and just think it’s twaddle, too.

If you want to make a difference, there are truly good causes that can use your support. I’d go with those.

Me? I’m going to spend my free time getting photos of the geese and ducks, now that migration time is here. It’s odd, isn’t it? That the world just keeps on truckin’ along and the migrations keep on happening, wildflowers bloom, dragonflies flit around like mad things, sugar maples turn red, orange and all shades in between, and – well, the Earth just keeps on keeping on.

Timothy Ivory
October 1, 2019 6:11 am

Anyone heard of this website?


This is a joke right? Would love to see someone bash these arguments with counter arguments, refuting there replies to the basic skeptic questions.

Bryan A
Reply to  Timothy Ivory
October 1, 2019 10:17 am

SkepticalScience is neither

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Timothy Ivory
October 1, 2019 12:17 pm

I think you will find few here that have not been familiar with that site for many years.
There is no point in commenting there.
They will not allow contrary opinions or information to remain posted.
SKS is famous for being a profuse distributor of global warming propaganda.
And for being a dishonestly run forum for comment.

Tim Ivory
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
October 1, 2019 7:24 pm

That is what I thought. I was kind of hoping someone would have already saw this and burst out laughing/face palming and after recovering, making posting a reply, line by line, on this website, not on theirs.

If copyright, then simply don’t use there words.

At the end of the day, it is good to compile all the overarching points like this and address them, not to mention, be a good trigger for SEO via google. The majority of the arguments look like google searches!

Steve Z
October 1, 2019 9:18 am

The video talked a lot about predictions of an ice age which failed to materialize, but did not spend any time discussing more recent warming predictions which didn’t happen (predicted temperature rises greater than actual, ice that was supposed to disappear that’s still here, sea level rise less than predicted, the 20-foot flood that was supposed to drown Florida, etc.).

For young people who are bombarded with predictions of disastrous warming, it would be more relevant to show that the rapid-warming predictions from the 1980’s failed after 1998.

October 1, 2019 10:00 am

“We Never Failed to Fail – It Was the Easiest Thing to Do”
Crosby, Stills & Nash
“Southern Cross”

Reply to  RiHo08
October 1, 2019 12:56 pm

How true.
The net result of fixing things that are not broken,resulting in making everything worse than before

It’s pretty damn sad when their legacy is summed up in one word… failure

October 1, 2019 11:27 am

Blue mist! This poor man spent too much time lighting his farts.

Phil Salmon
October 1, 2019 3:13 pm

The reaction to this paper;


which shows through rigorous statistical analysis that the risks of red meat are negligible, shows how alarmists in any field (here those who claim meat is harmful to health) are fundamentally unable to accept evidence to the contrary of their scare.

Again a whole industry has grown up around the meat scare and scientific objectivity has disappeared – as if it had been baked medium-rare and eaten.

October 1, 2019 10:13 pm


OK, so they were wrong about the coming Ice Age, but we are warning about Global Warming, so we must be right.

Man-Made CO2 stopped the Ice Age, and will cook us all before … um … 2057. Maybe.

And we have never made a prediction that has been falsified.

If we had, the video would have been about our predictions, not those old Ice Age things.

October 2, 2019 1:50 am

Bring back the ragged old men trudging through town wearing full-body billboards declaring “The End Of The World Is Nigh”. In those days even the gullible realised this wasn’t a good look.

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