Heat Wave Hysteria? The Truth Shall Set You Free

Reposted from WeatherFacts

By Chris Martz | July 20, 2019
Follow @ChrisMartzWX

We’ve made it to mid-July and we are just now having our first major heat wave of the season here in the United States.

A massive ridge of high pressure has built in over the southeast, which is dominating weather conditions almost everywhere east of the Rockies (Figure 1).¹

radsfcus_exp_new

Figure 1. NOAA NWS surface analysis for July 19, 2019.

The National Weather Service has issued Heat Advisories, Excessive Heat Watches, and Excessive Heat Warnings, from Nebraska to New Jersey as temperatures soar well into the 90s (scattered 100s are possible too) through Sunday (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Weather alerts for Friday, July 19.

When high pressure systems like this move over an area, air is pulled down towards the surface whereby it’s compressed, increasing the temperature.²

The longer the “heat dome” remains over an area, the temperature generally becomes hotter with each passing day until the high either moves away or weakens.² This is because there is little mixing of air which would otherwise prevent heat accumulation at the surface.

The large amount of sinking motion prevents low pressure systems from moving into areas dominated by high pressure while also inhibiting convection and cloud development in much of the area dominated by high pressure.² As a result, the ground becomes dry due to a lack of precipitation, which can enhance the temperature. The air can also become dry, unless water vapor is trapped underneath the “heat dome,” like it is currently. This excess water vapor in and of itself causes other issues like the heat index to soar well into the 100s.

Due to a lack of clouds, the sunlight can feel penalizing.² This buildup of heat at the surface is known as a “heat wave,” and they generally last anywhere from three to seven days, although some last longer.

Heat waves like this are typical of summer and from personal forecasting experience, they generally occur two to three times per year. This natural process used to be called “weather,” but in 2019, like everything that goes wrong, it’s climate change.

Unlike more recent weather or weather-related events, heat waves are actually not new to being blamed on global warming. However, the amount of heat wave hysteria among the public has increased significantly in recent years.

It is in this writing that I have three simple and valid points that destroy the hype on heat waves, like the current one.

Reason #1: Equal, But Opposite

While everyone is fixated on the heat wave, they ignore the unusual cold that’s nearby (Figure 3). As all weather forecasters should know, “for every action, there’s an equal and opposite reaction.” In other words, for every place that there’s warm anomalies, there are places with cool anomalies; it’s nature’s balancing act.

Figure 3. GFS 2-meter temperature anomalies for the U.S. on Friday July 19, 2019. – weathermodels.com.

Climate activists seem to ignore the fact that nature tries to find a balance. If they took note of equilibrium, they wouldn’t be fretting over this heat wave, simply because there’s  reasonably cool temperatures relative to average out west to balance it all out in the total picture.

Another thing that really annoys me with these people is that they get anxious because the weather is not “normal,” and by normal they mean climatologically “normal.”

Most people, even those who aren’t fascinated by the weather like me, understand that “normal” weather rarely happens. It’s usually one extreme or the other; hot or cold, warm or cool. These extremes for a single location for a single day end up averaging out numerically for a daily average over the course of 30 years. It’s highly unlikely that a daily temperature average of the high and low are going to stack up near the 30-year normal. It just doesn’t happen.

Figure 3 above shows the 2-meter temperature anomalies for Friday, July 19. Figure 4 below shows the same thing, but I adjusted the contrast of the image in order to separate the most extreme color differences, or in this case, the temperatures based on the color key to the right.

It’s time for a vision test.

It looks like to me that there’s pretty much an equal balance between extreme heat and extreme cold relative to average on the map (warmth dominates slightly with positive anomalies east of Hudson Bay), so nobody can reasonably make the argument that the warmth outweighs the cold.

Figure 4. GFS 2-meter temperature anomalies for the U.S. on Friday, July 19, 2019 (contrast adjusted). – weathermodels.com.




Reason #2: Some Historical Perspective


Most people are just too lazy to do a little bit of research. It’s a simple cold, hard fact. And for this, they believe everything they hear from journalists and politicians, both of which aren’t trained as scientists. This is quite dumbfounding considering we have the internet right at our fingertips.

According to the Fourth U.S. National Climate Assessment, the average duration of warm spells (heat waves) has declined from around eleven days during the 1930s to 6.5 days during the 2000s (Figure 5).³ In other words, the average duration of heat waves have declined by nearly 41% since the 1930s.

Figure 5. Warm spell duration. – U.S. Fourth National Climate Assessment.

In addition, the average maximum temperature during any given heat wave has also declined in the U.S. from 101°F in the 1930s to 99°F since the 1980s (Figure 6).³

Figure 6. Average warmest temperature each year. – U.S. Fourth National Climate Assessment.

The 1930s remains the warmest decade in U.S. history. It also had some of the hottest summers that the country has ever seen since records began.

The map below (Figure 7) shows the decade in which each U.S. state (also includes Guam, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Washington, D.C.) initially set their current hottest temperature in the record books, and as you can see, there’s an overwhelming number that are colored dark red (almost brown), which indicate the 1930s.⁴

Figure 7. Decade in which each U.S. state and territory initially recorded its hottest temperature.

In fact, 19 (38%) of the 50 U.S. states (I realize Alaska and Hawaii weren’t states until 1959) initially recorded their (current standing) hottest temperatures in the 1930s. 22 states (44%) either set or tied their hottest temperatures in the 1930s (Figure 8).

Figure 8. Each U.S. state that set or tied its hottest temperature in the 1930s.

If we had heat like that of the 1930s (click this link to see U.S. heat extremes), people would be screaming “climate doomsday” at ten times the levels they are currently!

Reason #3: Weather ≠ Climate

With most climate activists - especially those who are not trained or degreed scientists - it’s “do as I say, not as I do.”

They get triggered if a skeptic uses a record low temperature or record snowfall as proof that global warming is a hoax, and claim “weather and climate are not the same,” or that “climate is global, weather is not,” then turn around and use a single localized heat wave as evidence of a “climate catastrophe.”

In conclusion…

Using single weather events as evidence that global warming is either a hoax or is a crisis is completely dishonest and two-faced. I have seen too many certain people do it for both reasons, and its usually to try to pass legislation.

In other words, this entire movement has become a political thing and not one about science. It’s clear as day, and if you can’t see that, then you’re on your own.

In the end, the truth shall set you free.

REFERENCES

[1] “Current Surface Maps.” National Weather Service. July 19, 2019. Accessed July 19, 2019. https://www.weather.gov/oun/sfcmaps.

[2] McLeod, Jamie. “What Causes a Heat Wave?” Farmers Almanac. Accessed July 19, 2019. https://www.farmersalmanac.com/what-causes-a-heat-wave-10912.

[3] “Chapter 6: Temperature Changes in the United States.” CSSR. 2017. Accessed July 19, 2019. https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/6/.

[4] “U.S. state temperature extremes.” Wikipedia. July 18, 2019. Accessed July 19, 2019. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_temperature_extremes.

Posted by Chris Martz Weather at
6:43 PM

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137 thoughts on “Heat Wave Hysteria? The Truth Shall Set You Free

  1. About the only saving grace in this whole climate hysteria period is the Earth will do what the Earth does, and other than fudging the numbers, there isn’t much we can do about it.

      • Heat Wave
        by Irving Berlin

        first performed in 1933
        by Ethel Waters
        ( I guess they had a few
        heatwaves in the 1930s? )

        “We’re having a heat wave,
        A tropical heat wave,
        The temperature’s rising,
        It isn’t surprising,
        She certainly can can-can.

        She started a heat wave
        By letting her seat wave
        In such a way that
        The customers say that
        She certainly can can-can.

        Gee, her anatomy
        Makes the mercury
        Jump to ninety-three.

        We’re having a heat wave,
        A tropical heat wave,
        The way that she moves
        That thermometer proves
        That she certainly can can-can.”

        Ella sings it best:

    • This article was easy to read and persuasive, with mainly easy to read charts.

      But … the multi color US states chart was very hard to read — it can be significantly improved by reducing the contrast and lightening the colors.

      The US states “1930’s” chart, with some states colored yellow, may have a problem. I checked my old home state of New York, which Wikipedia said had its hottest day in 1926. But your chart shows New York having record heat in the 1930s ?? Maybe something is wrong.

      Climate alarmist reaction: The chart is wrong, and that means not one word in this article can be trusted.

      Climate skeptics reaction: That’s close enough for goobermint work.

      I posted an article about U.S. state heat records on July 15, showing more details than the two charts you used in this article, and easier to read than the original Wikipedia chart:
      https://elonionbloggle.blogspot.com/2019/07/us-state-heat-records-were-most-often.html
      .
      .
      .
      two more comments:
      (1)
      You wrote “Another thing that really annoys me with these people … ”
      It is mean to call climate alarmists “these people”.
      I recommend “these fools”, or “these dingbats”.

      (2)
      Your conclusion was correct:
      “In other words, this entire movement has become a political thing and not one about science.”

      But … my own point of view is that the coming climate change crisis was ALWAYS a political thing (a religion for some leftists), since the late 1980s.

      That’s the only way to explain why junk science and science fraud are accepted — there is an ulterior motive (political power).

      Climate change hysteria ramped up after the 1980’s, especially in the past five years, to the point that I couldn’t stand the nonsense any more, and started a climate science blog to refute the “coming catastrophe” in 2014.

      http://www.elOnionBloggle.Blogspot.com

      • Why fixate on the 1930s? It’s enough to point out (from your list) that fully 32 states’ high temperature records still stand from before 1940! Over 60% of our states. So much for unprecedented heat waves.

      • Richard. as you already know. the goobermint has the best ‘scientists’ money can buy. That would be our money they’re using but they are spending gobs of it to get the results they desire.

  2. Dumped almost an inch of rain here yesterday and on July 21 Pikes Peak still has visible traces of snow.

    • Friday Mt. Charleston, as seen from Las Vegas NV, still had visible snow. Not much but it was there.

    • I’m within the “Heat Advisory” area of Figure 2 above. So far this month, the maximum temperature has been only 3F above the July monthly average and that was on July 9th. Looking at the weather channel app, I live in the “Blood Red” portion of the US heat wave. Seems a bit extreme since we’re on track for a July that is about 3F below the historical monthly average high. Are the weather map colors lying?

  3. Mann on the WTC right this moment…it’s the warmest most ever….it’s you fault for using CO2!

  4. Houston is expected to see night time temps in the high 60s by the end of this week. They may have to issue blankets and open more shelters.

  5. Middle of summer, its hot, oh noes! My favorite this morning was all the law enforcement agencies scattered about the country telling criminals to take a break because of high temps. Just too precious.

    • Nice try. Meanwhile crims know that many more people will be leaving doors and windows open in hot weather, many houses are empty for vacations and they know the pickings are good.

      • Oh yea, hot spells usually see an increase in crime. Don’t know the mechanism responsible, number of bad people doing bad things seem to rise with the temps.

        • 2hotel9
          People in cities congregating outside to escape the stifling heat of their apartments, drinking beer to cool down and replenish fluids, and generally being short-tempered because they are uncomfortable.

          • I know. Was just trying to keep the conversation light and lively! Don’t even want to think about the casualty numbers out of Chicago during the last several days.

      • It’s a conservative racist talking point that locks, door, walls, etc. are effective at preventing entry.

        • Yep, guns and walls only protect Nannee Pelosi and the Kennedy Clan, anyone else who thinks walls and guns are for their own protection are irredeemable, deplorable fools. Everyone knows that! 😉

      • Chicago has its highest rate of murders and other crimes in the summer. People are outside later in the summer and young women wear skimpier clothing (non PC).

        • @Mohatdebos. What a woman wears is *NOT* a risk factor in sexual assault. Many studies have have put this myth down only to have it rise back up like a zombie.

      • A major factor in the 1994 Chicago heat wave death toll was that old people who were too poor for AC were too afraid to unlock their doors and open their windows because of the crime. Younger people are less wary, or believe they can fend off attackers.

      • It’ll be much better crime weather tomorrow in Boston, high of 81F and if you’ve put off that cold-blooded killing, then Tuesday the high is only 70F with a low of 65F.

      • Like the “crime-free weekend” in Chicago a decade ago? I am sure this will be at least as effective.

      • Having some experience in that area of MA I get the joke! As Howie likes to say, gotta laugh to keep from crying.

    • What irritates me is when the temps don’t go high enough to be either surprising or particularly scary, the TV wx. wonks change over to “heat index,” which like “wind-chill” is a Hype Factor to make things seem what they’re not, and keep the frightened sheep bolting and bleating. Supposedly it “feels” like 108 here right now; the thermometer says a mundane 95. Getting more than a little tired of ficticious “narratives.” We need to start teaching youth some resiliency, or the Chinese etc. will be able to waltz in here and take us without a shot being fired.

      • Yeah. What’s the humidex going with these high temps?

        It’s 42 C in Waterloo several times the past few days.

        The Humidex is well over 40 in Beijing and freezing cold (almost) in NW Russia.

        Makes Singapore look comfortable at 30.

      • “What irritates me is when the temps don’t go high enough to be either surprising or particularly scary, the TV wx. wonks change over to “heat index,” which like “wind-chill” is a Hype Factor to make things seem what they’re not, and keep the frightened sheep bolting and bleating.”

        The Heat Index is a measure of moisture not of CO2, although the alarmists do use the Heat Index numbers to make things look as bad as possible, and it’s all because of CO2.

        The Heat Index does put the weather conditions in perspective.

        As the author, Chris Martz wrote: “The air can also become dry (under high-pressure system domes), unless water vapor is trapped underneath the “heat dome,” like it is currently. This excess water vapor in and of itself causes other issues like the heat index to soar well into the 100s.”

        I think this is a very good point to keep in mind.

        For instance: It rained a *lot* over the south and central U.S. this year. All those areas have a lot of moisture in the ground. So when this current high-pressure system moves in, it moves in over very moist ground and the Heat Indexes are sky high. This will continue until a lot of the moisture in the ground evaporates. Once the moisture evaporates to a sufficient degree, then the air temperatures will start to rise and a real humid Oklahoma town with a 95F air temperature may have a heat index of 105+, and when the moisture finally lowers then the actual air temperature will rise up to 105F. Moisture suppresses the air temperatures. But not the discomfort!

        In Oklahoma we expect to see a high-pressure system set itself up in our vicinity every year, but most years are not nearly as wet as this year, so we have high heat indexes.

        Speaking personally, I would rather work outside in a 105F air temperature than in a Heat Index of 105. That was about the Heat Index value this morning at 10 am when I cut my Dad’s lawn. The moisture just seems to sap your strength a little sooner than the drier air, at least for me.

        Tomorrow the weather will change and the temperatures will drop because a storm front is headed this way from the northwest. Other years, our high-pressure system would set up over the central U.S. and would completely block storm fronts such as this one coming, and we would stay hot and dry.. Our current weather is much more benign. We’re in good shape as long as we can get a storm front or two to come through during the summer, and it looks like we are in a sweet spot right now..

        • Higher humidity interferes with your body’s ability to cool itself through evaporation.

          • I can push my lawn mower for about an hour and a half (the time it takes for the gasoline to run out) when the air temperature is about 105F, but I can only go about an hour when the Heat Index reads 105. In that case, I run out of gas before the lawn mower does. 🙂

          • Heat Index is a good way to figure what level of physical activity you should be engaged in outside. Problem is TV hacks have been using it to whip up hysteria about the Climate Chaos which is destroying the world yadayadayada. I can’t work as well in the high humidity after suffering heat exhaustion a few years ago, so I do pay attention to the heat index, just do so by reading it at AccuWeather and watching the radar/satellite composite to know when it is going to rain/snow/stop either. Much better for my bloody pressure than watching the screeching twits on TV.

        • One thing about most Oklahoma summers is they are usually dry and by this time of year the grass has gone dormant and doesn’t require much mowing, but this year it has been very wet and the grass grows like crazy, so you have to get out in the heat and mow it down or be overwhelmed.

          It’s raining here now. I’ll take the rain. A little extra mowing is worth it. Besides, things look a lot better, everything isn’t all dried up and brown, it’s all nice and green. Nothing like the Dust Bowl days of the 1930’s.

          • If I may ask, where in OK are you located? I spent several years in Ft Sill and down in Ft Hood and Bliss. Much prefer dry heat to humidity any day.

          • I’m about 40 miles southeast of Tulsa. I spent some time at Fort Bliss, and I was there during the summer time. Definitely a dry heat! 🙂

          • Never got up that way, closest was convoying on I 40 going and coming back from Ft Smith, once to guard Mariel refugees and again to do a survival course and combat engineering training. And yea, ain’t nothing damp about Bliss other than the pipes leaking in the latrines. The dustiest place I ever operated vehicles! 😉

      • I have long been tired of the dramatic music and flashy graphics, and how every station has Severe Weather Center logos splashed all over the screen as the pregnant lady reads her teleprompter and waves her hands at the bluescreen whilst the technician in back actually puts up images. And they wonder why they are going broke. One question! Is it a Union Contract Rule that as soon as a female on staff gets pregnant they are required to do the weather? Whats up with that?!?!?

  6. I like the warmth, especially after so many months of cold — even into early May. UHI effects are very prominent now as nearby towns can be 5-8F warmer than my rural, forested location. Read Extreme Weather by Christopher Burt to see that weather has been much more brutal in the past. I myself remember my family having to sleep on cots in the basement during the 1966 summer heatwave in west Maryland — no AC of course. And that was not as bad as the July 1936 heatwave.

  7. Heat waves like this are typical of summer and from personal forecasting experience, they generally occur two to three times per year. This natural process used to be called “weather,” but in 2019, like everything that goes wrong, it’s climate change.

    Here you hit the nail on the head. Those of us who can look back over seven decades have many examples to support your statement.

  8. Yesterday in Virginia Beach, VA, my weather app (Weather.com) said the high would be 99 degrees yet the hourly forecasts showed highs of only 94. Today, high of 99 with hourly highs of only 97. Seems somewhat misleading, doesn’t it?

    Meanwhile, Accuweather shows high today of 95 with hourly forecasts of 95.

    Which to believe? /sarc

    • There’s actually more truth in those forecasts than you might guess. The daily high is based on the distribution over the day , while the hourly is for that hour. The catch is that hour by hour forecasts aren’t very good, except when they’re showing large changes (ex: a storm will arrive in the afternoon). So the deviation in any given hour is relatively small, but the deviations are cumulative, so the daily is higher. The lows should look the same (daily low being lower than any hourly lows).

      Hourly vs daily forecasts are also intended for different purposes. The intent for the dailies is more “should I bring a jacket” while the hourly is more “when should I go shopping.” Hourly is for relative temperature, while daily is truly for min/max.

    • Hi John. I’m from Va Beach as well. The highest temperature recorded (in Norfolk) on July 20 was 102F in 1942. Bet my bottom dollar we’ll hear nothing about that in the Pilot.

    • Yesterday, my National Weather Service weather app had a bloody red text box screaming “severe weather warning”. I assumed severe storms were on the way. I clicked on the bloody red text link only to find an extreme heat warning with expected temperatures around 95. Give me a break. This is just part of the effort to indoctrinate the masses that a global crisis can only be avoided by contributing to a global bullsh*t tax.

  9. I usually follow weather closely. This week in the Boulder, Colorado area, weather hysteria was in action. I think that Denver did actually tie the high temp record one day, but this is what the heat wave in Boulder looked like for the string of days with highs over 90F: 91 (Jul 15), 91, 95, 97, 99 (19th). Now 95F and above feels hot in Boulder even though humidity is generally low here. A high of 91 is actually quite nice, especially when one has the luxury to be able to lie down on cool grass, which has a double meaning in Colorado.

    Anyway, contrast this to the 1954 heat wave in which the highs in Boulder were: 100 (Jul 10), 104, 103 and 102 (13th) – I don’t know whether the highs on either side of this historical heat wave were above 90F or not.

    If anything, heat waves in Boulder are less extreme than they were over 60 years ago.

    • Visited my brother who was stationed at the Air Force Base in Colorado Springs back then. Don’t remember the temperatures but it was so hot that we slept in just our underclothes, not even a sheet. Windows open and a small oscillating fan to circulate the heat. Still visited every national and state park within driving distance each day. The only time it felt cool was when we were driving. And AC was unheard of back then. Don’t recall any reports of people dying like flys. However I was amazed by all of the beautiful sights.

      • I’m with you on the beautiful sites in Colorado except for your opening of sleeping in underclothes.

        It brought back some memories of my childhood though, when our auto AC was rolling down the window and home AC was a fan and a wet washcloth.

        • R Shearer
          Yes, many of us who are of retirement age lived through periods of not only heat, but high humidity, without the comfort of AC. It may not have been comfortable, but it didn’t kill us. I didn’t own a car with AC until 2007, after I had moved back to the Mid-west. That included living in Phoenix for a couple of yeas in the late ’90s.

          • I can’t imagine Phoenix without AC in a car or home. I suppose over a hundred years ago, AC in the big cities was a clothes pin for the nose.

          • @ R Shearer: I can imagine Pheonix W/O AC. It’s what the “natives” call swamp coolers. For a single-story house, it is more effective and much cheaper. I lived in the high desert east of Reno for four years and the swamp cooler would get the house downright chilly even when the temperature outside was 104F (a nearly daily occurrence in the summertime). BTW we had no such thing as a heatwave there. The all-time record high temperature was 107F and the daily highs were 102-104F.

          • Clyde

            I have to agree with you. I lived in Africa for decades without aircon in the house or car. My pickup didn’t have aircon for 20 years. I have experienced 50C in the cab.

            We managed the temperature using …windows! And in “British” Africa there’re often no screens on windows.

            Southern Africa has no tradition of screening windows. If you have a mozzie problem, close the windows, roll up a magazine and start swatting. West Africa, yes they have screens, now. Not when I lived in Nigeria during independence.

        • Yes–we had a 440 air conditioner: 4 windows open at 40 miles an hour. Much more effective than a 220 air conditioner.

      • “Don’t recall any reports of people dying like flys”

        Maybe they were dying like flies instead?

    • Went through a heat wave in S. California in the mid 90’s in which we had highs over 100 for 60 straight days. I had to schedule Cross Country Practices for early morning (6 am) or evening (7 pm) so the temps wouldn’t be too problematic. Of course the S. California area I lived in (Rialto/Colton) was low desert so those temps were ‘normal’

      I now live in NE Arizona and we are having our standard mid July temps in the mid to high 90’s. I haven’t gone into triple digits for about 5 years.

  10. We absolutely must stop using NORMAL when the AVERAGE is what one is describing. That change in verbiage has foisted off on us by the local weather persons for about 10 years. We also need to quit showing the smoothed data for the high/low temperatures. Temperatures are spiky, leave them spiky.

    I’m also against adjusting temperatures in any fashion, when you live in an urban heat island, you feel the urban heat island and not some ideal pasture location. Yes, I’m a curmudgeon.

    • We absolutely must stop using NORMAL when the AVERAGE is what one is describing.

      Absolutely Correct, ditch the term “normal” when talking about averages. Because when the current value is not directly on the average, people say “not normal”, which is nuts. Just because the current temperature is 1 degree above or below the average, does anybody really want to describe it as “not normal? That is insane, and I have seen it done, even here at WUWT.

      If average is what you mean, say “average”. Save “normal” for the mean +/- 3 std. dev.
      And do not forget to calculate a wee p value in honor of our great resident statistician.

      • The average high summer temperature of a particular day does give some information, but should be accompanied by the historical highest and lowest temperatures for that day day.

        Giving the average daily temperature alone (using the term “normal”) during a heatwave is meant to deceive and engender fear in the populous.

    • I also try to say “the predicted weather is”, not “it’s supposed to be” 90°F today. It’s a prediction and nothing more. The weather is whatever it is and there’s no “supposed to be” in any of it.

    • Thanks for the feedback.

      The two graphs you’re referring to are from the U.S. National Climate Assessment, so I’d forward that complaint to the authors. It doesn’t really matter though in my opinion, the data shows a downward trend in heat waves and the hottest temperatures during them.

  11. Yesterday I received our school district’s newsletter. One of the highlights was our May 21 snowstorm that closed all the schools (12 inches of snow). Location is northeast Colorado Springs. Didn’t hear much about that in relation to global warming.

  12. Great article! OT a bit but can anyone tell me, did You Tube disallow comments now? I can not see or leave comments at all, and I love to tell climate alarmists that they are hypocrites.

  13. Average warmest temperature each year.

    The warmest temp of the year is single event. What is being averaged?

    Or is this supposed to say warmest average temperature of the year. In which case over what time period is the average being taken?

    Giving ammo to knock back alarmist claims is fine but it has to make sense if you expect anyone to use it or even understand it.

  14. Highs in Yuma, AZ, have been averaging around 105F degrees during July so far. This is a good temperature to be out and about during summer, yet now NOAA is issuing excessive heat warnings. Some local golfers get out on the course in the afternoon because of the low fees. When it gets above 110F degrees the heat can be considered excessive. Degree days above 110F have been declining on the Arizona desert since the 1930’s.

    • Wetting your head and/or shirt is good. That’s what I do if mowing grass in the afternoon heat (better to wait until evening).

  15. Weather forecasters have become weather hypsters. You can feel the excitement as the words “triple-digits” roll off of their wagging tongues, even when describing the heat index. Because often the mid-to-upper 90’s, even in the UHI-enhanced cities refuses to hit that magic 100 mark. Meanwhile, temps outside those urban areas are at least 5F cooler.

  16. My friends in the US are going mad over this heatwave. In all honesty they are overreacting.

    • Tell your friends to chill out and have a beer, it is all perfectly normal. I am going to spend most of the day in someone else’s AC!

      • Wish me luck on that one. Last time I tried to tell them something like that, they kicked me from the chat room for being a *DENIER*. Their usual responses are “Climate change is very real* and other nonsense of that nature.

        • I feel your pain! Try this”Yes, climate change is real, climate changes constantly. Humans can not stop it from changing and are not causing it to change.” Repeat as needed, which will be a lot. Funny, though, those who are loudest about humans causing climate change won’t give up their computers, smartphones, running water, refrigerators or cars, they just want everyone else to give it all up.

  17. “When high pressure systems like this move over an area, air is pulled down towards the surface whereby it’s compressed, increasing the temperature.²

    “The longer the “heat dome” remains over an area, the temperature generally becomes hotter with each passing day until the high either moves away or weakens.² This is because there is little mixing of air which would otherwise prevent heat accumulation at the surface.”

    pV=nRT. Different mechanism creating the p and with only 1% of the atmospheric mass and 27% or so farther from the sun but it creates lasting higher temps just like on Venus as long as the p is there but, of course to a lesser degree. But I was told by some on here that it does not explain the high Venus temperatures at the surface there?

    • It is not PV=nRT. As Chris explained, as air is compressed (i.e. as it has work done on it) it becomes warmer, until it losses the work in some way (i.e. does work or losses heat). The important relationship is the first law of thermodynamics.

      \Delta U = Heat - Work

      PV=nRT is not the first law, nor is it a proxy for such.

  18. Warmist who moan over any heat wave show clear signs of Red Eye disease, the total inability to see blue cool areas on a weather map.

    It is a serious disease that strikes a specific demographic area, those who are democrats, environmentalists, and the media.

    The cure is to rise the eyes daily and buy blue tinted glasses, then blue colors on weather maps are now visible.

  19. We all know the protocol. Warmer is always Man Made Climate Change, cooler is always weather.

    Submit you fools, and join us. All will be well, we mean you no harm.

    Ack Ack, Ack Ack !!!

  20. Two days ago it was 100 degrees. Yesterday, 84, with a cool evening rain, and I had to wear a sweater walking the dog after the rains. This morning was nice and cool as well. As I tell my kids, IT IS JUST WEATHER!

  21. Well “The Narrative” was probably scripted back in May,the likes of The Weather Channel have probably been twitching awaiting normal summer heat so that they might play it.
    Amazing how a “Heat Wave” need now only last one day and feature temperatures just barely normal for a summer hot spell.
    The hysteria has become hysterical,they proclaim everything as extreme and wonder why anyone over 30 now yawns and ignores them.

    I was getting irritated by the Climate Hysteria,until I noticed even the Cult Members are embarassed by the exaggeration.
    The Cult of Calamitous Climate, keeps scoring these delicious own goals.

  22. I am living in one of those cold blue/green zones. I am frankly bewildered by all this talk of climate change. We’ve had an unusually cold spring and summer here. We had a very late June frost that was a record breaker and played havoc with my garden. Last night the temperature went down to 8C (46F) which is unheard of in July. Well except I checked the records and we only have official temperatures from 1971 onward and it was 7C on this day in 1985.

  23. An articulate call for perspective. From a design standpoint, design is based on extreme events, so weather is important. It is more practical to improve our housing and immediate living environs than try to regulate the massively complex planet. But I am preaching to the choir.

  24. Hot and cold areas in north America may be equal in land area, but they are not equal in population. Right now it is very hot in New York City and Washington DC. If you make the the editors and producers of the media uncomfortable, they will lash out. If live in New York and you have to ride the subway in this weather you will be really unhappy when you get to work and your work will show it.

      • I get –
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  25. I only notice temps when they start to go up or down substantially. So this little heat wave started on July 5th, with a high of 82F, and ended yesterday (I hope) with a high of 94F late yesterday, and certainly not as bad as 24 years ago, when a prolonged, heavy-handed heat wave hit Chicago, sat on the city like an cranky old frog, and was the major cause in the heat-related deaths of over 700 people who lived in low-income housing and had no access to A/C.

    The heat index at its highest here was 107, and that seems to get more attention than the real temperatures get, but if you’re poor and have no access to cooling, it is a significant threat to your well-being. You’re better off outdoors, on a bench in the shade of a tree.

    Now things are back to “normal”, and I”m enjoying the cooler air and the rain. Looking forward to the rest of summer and fall.

    It’s just weather.

  26. I have been saying this for years and getting grief from both warmists and ice age alarmists.

    But until this article the assumption had to be that ‘the truth does not sell newspapers/generate page impressions’.

    Maybe an era of truth telling is about to emerge?

  27. Someone in NJ was fretting about “wait until the hottest part of the summer gets here” yesterday. I looked up the weather stats and lo-and-behold, July 21st is typically the hottest day of the year there.

    • Yes, we are on the downhill side of summer now. Right now is the hottest part of the year and these temperatures will continue, more or less, through the middle of August or thereabouts and then the heat of summer will break and we are headed into Fall.

  28. Only third rate buffoon moron (regardless if they have a doctorate or a degree they are still morons) come out with the stupid phrase “it’s the new normal”.
    This is said usually to inject some hysteria into their nonsense and distract from the fact they have little evidence, knowledge, or understanding about the subject. The only ‘new normal’ is stupid phD idiots reciting the words “it’s the new normal” — CRETINS!

  29. I very well remember people telling me from Southern France mid July 2003: “C’est comme d’habitude!”, business as usual. Some even told “Oh it can’t be worse than earlier!”.

    But in August came a real heat wave across Western Europe, 50,000 most older persons died, 14,000 of them in France. Dehydration was the cause for a vast majority of them.

    Thus when I read here complains about real temps being a few degrees lower than the forecast with a “Seems somewhat misleading, doesn’t it?”, I tell them:

    People, just be glad that the weather forecasts are a bit too high, rather than the other way around.

    Rgds
    J.-P. D.

    • If 50,000 people were really so stupid or so poverty-stricken to take action to adapt to a well-predicted weather event, what does that tell us about them? Or their governmental officials?

      But of course nobody can name these supposed victims. They are computer model outputs of supposedly excess deaths. Pure rubbish!

      • Rich Davis

        1. “If 50,000 people were really so stupid or so poverty-stricken to take action to adapt to a well-predicted weather event… ”

        Jesus what are you an arrogant person.

        Nobody did predict such a heat wave in 2003, you genius.

        2. “But of course nobody can name these supposed victims. They are computer model outputs of supposedly excess deaths. Pure rubbish!”

        And here, you become really disingenuous, if not even simply disgusting.

        All these people really DIED, Sir. It is verifiable, but YOU never and never would bother to investigate this fact.

        The pure rubbish is on your side.

        Maybe you, who are so cynical and indifferent to the helplessness of all these people, will suffer the same fate at the age of 80 or higher. Who knows?

        Be sure I will not feel sorry for you then.

        • Oh I see jp, suddenly it went to 40 and 50,000 dropped on the spot. Is that it? All sources of water disappeared, all hospitals shut down. Government facilities closed their doors to the afflicted? Or the effect was so quick that they died trying to reach shelter? Relatives dared not leave home to attend to their elderly. This all should be recognized for the nonsense that it is.

          If I believed that people with no recourse truly died from heat stress, then I would take this more seriously. The reality is that the estimate is based on the total number of people who died in the period of any and all causes. (Yes those people really died, what is it about 0.01% of the population? And what number die of old age and disease every day?) Then a model estimates how many would “normally” die in the same period. The difference is deemed to be caused by the heat. You cannot reference a list of individuals whose death certificates indicate heat stress.

          The same sort of nonsense is used to claim a huge death toll from Fukushima and Chernobyl.

          Do I doubt that heat stress impacted some people? No of course not. But these weather events are not caused by CO2 or any human cause. It’s sad for those impacted, but it’s nature and we need to adapt. Goverments, charities, and individuals should certainly try to help.

          It is those who wish to condemn the poor to increasing energy poverty who are cynical and indifferent. Cold kills many more people than heat. When they must choose between eating and heating, does the lack or insufficiency of either not impact the poor far more than a few days of unusually warm weather?

          • Most mortality in HEAT EVENTS is displaced. That is, the mortality rate goes up over the event, but FALLS after, then increases to the average level. Over the entire period (during and after) the mortality rate is mostly unchanged.

            During cold events, mortality increases during the event, then stays high for some time AFTER, giving an elevated mortality rate during and after.

            Cold is the killer.

        • I can’t find where (that nice round) ‘50,000 early deaths’ fig originates;
          but it’s suspicious that every year in UK we also get –
          ‘40,000 early deaths’ from Air pollution +
          ‘40,000 early deaths’ from heat waves +
          ‘40,000 early deaths’ from cold

          So -120,000 premature deaths / yr …Really ???
          With 533,253 deaths (all causes) registered in England and Wales in 2017,

          That = 22% premature deaths…Sounds like fishy figures to me !!

  30. Can you imagine the rukus raised by the global warmers if we were to have set 50 of 92 daily record high temperatures June 1 thru 31 August any where in the world during the past 10 years.

    This data is from Norfolk Nebraska official US weather station. 50 daily records during the decade of the 1930’s

    To confirm my data select Norfolk Nebraska from site location and submit.

    https://www.weather.gov/oax/monthly_climate_records

  31. I live near Columbus Ohio.
    I had switched my cable service to Spectrum which has there own local 24 hr news/weather channel. (That’s not why I switched.)
    On Friday the 19th they had a blurb comparing the record highs for Columbus to the forecast highs.
    Friday the 19th they said the record high was 97 set in 1957.
    Saturday the 20th they said the record high was 98 set in 1957.
    Sunday the 21st they said the record high was 97 set in 2011.

    I checked the NWS site that covers Columbus to see what they now say. (No, I didn’t go back to my past lists.)
    https://www.weather.gov/iln/climate_records_cmh#
    Friday the 19th NWS says the record high was 98 set in 1930.
    Saturday the 20th NWS says the record high was 101 set in 1934.
    Sunday the 21st NWS says the record high was 106 set in 1939.

    I sent Spectrum an email but haven’t heard back from them.

  32. This is a great site. This does not change the point of the article, however the official high temp for the state of Oregon is 119 which was actually reached twice in the 1890s. Perhaps your info only considers data from the 20th century.

  33. I live in Southern California near the beach. Here it has been a relatively cool summer with highs in the seventies. In past years it usually warms up quite a bit in July but that has not happened yet. As long as we get the ocean breeze we are in good shape. I expect that we will get warmer weather in August and September and possible a period where high pressure cuts off the ocean breeze. For decades we never had any air conditioning equipment but now we have some room air conditioners that we use only a few weeks during the year when we get excessively warm humid nights. From my experience we have weather cycles but no real climate change. During heat waves, without air conditioning we close up the house during the day and then open it up during the cooler nights.

  34. Hi, I am new to the climate scene, and wanted to ask, why the ice in iceland, and the artic is melting if it isn’t due to humanity’s love of fossil fuels…. many thanks.

    • Keep coming back to WUWT, Sunny, to get some reasoning behind the different global warming camps. Once you get some idea of the changing world climate in the past, you start questioning the belief that CO2 is driving our current benign climate.

      • To be honest I started reading up on climate change a few weeks ago, and it scared me to my very soul, I didn’t eat for almost 5 days, and didn’t leave my house, I was terrified and still am, when I see or hear anything about the climate. Even this heat wave they are saying is due to climate change. I read on this site about the jet stream and the earths weak magnetic field could be the cause. Also the solar cycle is changing so the climate could be cooler for the next 11 years?

        • Sunny, you get peace of mind about the “climate crisis” by just sending $250 by direct deposit to to –
          United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
          Geneva, Switzerland
          (Copy: Ex-president Albert Gore)

        • ” I read on this site about the jet stream and the earths weak magnetic field could be the cause.”

          It’s just weather, Sunny. Don’t worry about it. Heat waves happen every summer. This particular one looks like it is going to be very short-lived, so enjoy the milder weather the U.S. is going to have in the next few weeks. If you are not in the U.S., grab a flight and come on over!

          Your best bet to find out what is going on with the climate is to read the discussions on this website. You will get all sides of the story and a lot more and eventually you will probably be able to separate the facts from the speculation about this thing called the Earth’s climate.

        • How do you think I feel? I’m autistic, and someone thought it would be funny to send me a link to a YT documentary stating that the ice will be gone in the next 12 years and some gibberish about a “methane-gun something I couldn’t care less what its called” firing and killing off human kind. You couldn’t eat for 5 days? Well I nearly passed out that night watching that documentary (Whose comment section was in full support of the hysteria). WUWT brought my sanity back to acceptable levels.

    • It melts in summer, freezes in winter. All totally normal. Climate changes constantly, humans are not causing it and can not stop it. Don’t let alarmists with a political agenda continue to lie to you, reality is out here waiting, all you have to do is accept it.

  35. Al Gore is the charismatic spokesman for the climate alarmists and does a good job as their champion. The climate sceptics do not have a charismatic champion speaking on our behalf. There are some who speak out for the sceptical side of the climate argument but none are charismatic personalities in my opinion. We need a champion for the sceptics. Someone charismatic, likeable, and believable who can carry forth an intelligent debate, someone who understands the scientific arguments to counter the pseudoscience of the alarmists. We need the climate sceptic equivalent of Anthony Robbins or Barrack Obama to get our message across. Where is this person? We need this urgently. In this age of superficiality and bullshit we need the power of an influencer.

    • We lack one because there is no big money in it, Robert. It takes huge sums to attract the really big scammers.

  36. As happened last year, there was a big brouhaha about how we would have dangerous unprecedented heat with predictions of 99F (which by the way is by no means unprecedented for New England). On Friday night, the Weather.com predictions on my iPhone showed 99F for both Sat and Sun. Actual highs were around 95F (37C predicted, 35C actual).

    I continue to find it incredible that weather.com predictions never seem to be wrong on the cool side. There seems to be a systematic bias toward predicting higher than actual temperatures. The same thing happens during cold extremes. More than once I have seen them predict a low temperature that was higher than the actual high temperature.

    It’s almost as if they want to exaggerate the highs and hide the lows, but of course I know that there’s no such agenda. All pure coincidence. Riiiiight.

    • Several years ago they included the record high and low for that date on their “Local on 8’s”.
      They stopped that.
      Now they seem to be more interested in projecting impressions rather than fact.

  37. WAS La Guardia warmer than Central Park yesterday July 20 DAY 37C NIGHT 28C CPK 35-27???
    Mosh! Is this your “UCI” Urban Cool Island??? Greetings from MS Silja Serenade from Helsinki to Stockholm….

    +,

  38. I remember temps reaching close to 100f and sometimes breaking 100f back in the late 60’s and early 70’s here in central Ohio. Then the rains would move in and cool things down.

  39. Watch some of Tony Heller’s videos on youtube, he’s been blowing holes in this for years!

  40. I never paid much attention to it but the link above includes a “snow” column. 8 days in past July’s recorded a “T”, trace of snow. All of them after 1950. In Columbus Ohio in July.
    Just an observation.

    • It occurred to me that the “T” for a trace of snow only being after 1950 might not be what I first thought.
      Where I work we report our our rainfall to the NWS. It was only in that last year or so that a “T” for a trace of rain would be accepted in their system as a reportable value.
      So, to be fair, perhaps a trace of snow was not a reportable value earlier.
      I don’t know but it is a possibility.

  41. When you look out of the window and see rain or heat you are not seeing climate you are seeing weather. How you have experienced the last few days or decades of weather has no bearing on the question ” Is there climate change”. Many people make the same mistake on a somewhat larger scale when they observe that, for instance, widespread heatwaves is the American West in the thirties brought numerous state records for intensity or duration of heat. That still amounts to nothing but weather because worldwide temperatures in the thirties were unremarkable, even a bit on the cool side. Of course events in our neighborhoods or our nation attract a lot of notice but they just don’t compare to facts like the fact that, worldwide, last June was the hottest June in history and numerous other, similar records, world records, are being set regularly this decade. Now THAT’s some climate for you.

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