Guest essay by Eric Worrall
According to Forbes, when renewable energy programmes like Germany’s Energiewende mature, demand for Russian fossil fuel will collapse.
Will Russia Survive The Coming Energy Transition?
Jun 27, 2019, 10:35am
Ariel Cohen ContributorA new global energy reality is emerging. The era of the hydrocarbon ā which propelled mankind through the second stage of the industrial revolution, beyond coal and into outer space ā is drawing to a close. The stone age ended not because we ran out of stones. The same with oil and gas.
We have now entered the era of the renewable energy resource, whereby zero-emission electricity is generated via near unlimited inputs (solar radiation, wind, tides, hydrogen, and eventually, deuterium). Cutting-edge, smart electric grids, utility-scale storage, and electric self-driving vehicles ā powered by everything from lithium-ion batteries to hydrogen fuel cells ā are critical elements of this historic energy transition.
Each of these technological trends will displace demand for Russiaās primary source of budget revenues: fossil fuels.The transition will have major consequences for the status-quo leaders of the hydrocarbon age: from Moscow to Caracas, and from Teheran to Riyadh. The Russian Federation, which today is the worldās largest gas exporter and second most prolific oil producer, is one such player which must āadapt or dieā over the next 15-20 years. Indeed, Russia derives 40% of its revenue from oil and gas sales, making it a de-facto petro-state. It, and other hydrocarbon revenue dependent nations, must accept their new reality, and react decisively, if they hope to survive in the age of renewables.
…
Even Germany, which is on the receiving end of Russiaās controversial Nord Stream II gas mega-project, has already declared that the purchases of Russian gas will start declining after 10 yearās time per its national Energy Transformation agenda. The so-called Energiewende policy aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) some 40% by 2020, by 55% by 2030, and up to 95% in 2050, compared to 1990 levels. This does not jive with increased imports of Russian fossil fuels.
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As we have already seen in Europe, hydrocarbon demand will be driven by declining renewable energy costs, government policies, new technologies, and companies’ shifts in strategies to prepare for the new energy age. Structural changes in fossil fuel supply, demand, energy mix, and prices will follow accordingly.
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Read more: https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2019/06/27/will-russia-survive-the-coming-energy-transition/
Back in the real world post nuclear Germany, home of Energiewende, is so desperate for real energy they are preparing to tear down ancient forests in Hambach to get at the coal beneath the trees, and are using hardline police tactics to clear protesters from domestic brown coal mine sites.
The German government can declare whatever it wants, greens can celebrate their fantasy 15 year transition plans, but in the real world people do not tolerate being cold in Winter. Fossil fuel demand is rising, and demand for coal is strong.
“Renewable energy” advocates act like advocates for socialism, with the same sort of excuses as to why it hasn’t worked yet, but just you wait, it will work this time.
Jordan Peterson makes that point. Presented with the evidence that every time Marxism has been tried on the national scale, it has resulted in millions of deaths, the Marxists will insist, “They did it wrong.”
Of course they did it wrong. It was wrong to try it in the first place.
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“…just you wait, it will work this time.”
Tom, that’s the same logic that suggests the climate models will become more accurate as time goes on and the CO2+CH4 hyper-greenhouse crushes natural variation. Not working out so far…
They must now stoop to attributing every negative impact weather event to CO2 pollution in order to distract the apathetic populace from seeing how far from reality the climate model mean has been.
If they don’t convince the the globe to submit to the UN with this agenda wrapped in quasi-science, they will be back to “square one”, with only their entrenchment in our education system to foster the fancy that socialism is the answer to greed.
If socialists are educating our (western culture) progeny, the global trend will be towards socialism in some form or another, and away from the present paradigm which allows more wealth to those who are more motivated and educated. We must nullify their campaign by warning our offspring and kinfolk of subversive indoctrination and passing on the concept of critical thought guiding free will.
I understand why some people wonāt say it, ā¦ā¦ but I will.
Socialists are educating our progeny ā¦ā¦ and have been for past 30 years.
Not mine. Home schooled and proud of it.
Respect.
If the goal was for the climate models to replicate reality, they would get better over time.
Unfortunately the goal is for them to support the climate alarmists, as such they are already perfect and don’t need to be improved.
Tom,
You like many others always claim that it has to do something with socialism but honestly in my opinion this is bullshit.
What drives those people (majority of Greens, Social Democrat, Lefts, etc.) is to something good, whatever that is for them. It is an individual impression based on – to be harsh, stupidity, lack of understanding of history, āGutmenschentumā. This is mixed with religious, ideological fever and where it can lead to we know from history.
Such behavior can and is misused by those who seek power and recognition. Those donāt believe any anything else but would never admit it to themself or others.
To be driven by an idea of āsocialismā they would need to know what it mend but they have know idea because again the lack of knowledge and historical understanding.
By the way, I excluded the term liberals because it means something totally different in US and in Europe.
Cheers
Klaus, Tom said the “Renewable Energy” advocates act like advocates for socialism”, not that they have something to do with socialism. I agree with Tom, based on current liberal activism here in USA, wherein AOC and others advocate Green Energy one day and Socialism another day, and their advocation is totally against any reasonable examination of either history or current data.
Klaus, ā¦ā¦ āsocialismā, when nurtured at a young age, ā¦ā¦ is like any other āreligiousā belief.
No knowledge of its concept and/or historical understanding is needed, required or applied.
It is just ābelieve itā, ā¦.. ābelieve itā, ā¦.. ābelieve itā, ā¦..
The road to hell is paved with good intentions. Socialism in whatever its form (Marxism, Stalinism, Leninism, Maoism, etc) fits this saying perfectly!
You obviously are completely ignorant as to what socialism is, as you canāt differentiate it from Communism.
Not quite. I was operating off the observation made by Eric Hoffer in “The True Believer” that fanatics tend to act in a stereotypical manner, independent of the content of their obsession. While many in the green blob are also socialists, their reaction pattern would be much the same if they were also Buddhists.
Being a True Believer is similar to various named psychological conditions, with similar patterns of behavior.
That sure sounds like something kinda fancy and brilliant ā¦.. that the āpsychobabblersā would be preaching from their podiums to impress the clueless and gullible.
āPsychobabblersā, for the most part, donāt have a clue as to what nurtured a personās obsession, be it a belief or whatever. Most people really donāt know themselves what nurtured their āobsession(s)ā ā¦ā¦ simply because they donāt think of themselves of having an obsession. (Beer drinkers are an exception.)
āstereotypical – relating to a widely held but fixed and oversimplified image or idea of a particular type of person or thing.ā
āYUPā, just like the psychological condition of the True Believes, ā¦.. who believe the actual factual Science of the Natural World, ā¦.. and who post their ābeliefā commentary to this website.
āHAā, one of my fanatical obsessions is to āonly talk actual factual scienceā.
The brain/mind of every human that has ever existed is unique in its nurtured content, ā¦.. meaning that no two were ever subjected to the same environmental stimuli, ā¦. even identical twins.
Close enough for government work.
If the words of the leaders aren’t enough to convince you, what will?
While some of the foot soldiers may be driven by a desire to do good, they are willing to use evil methods to get what they want.
Exactly correct. Many useful idiots think they are doing good. Their leaders know better.
The ‘butcher’s bill’ is just as high but it’s being paid in the 3rd world so that’s ignored.
I wonder just how they are going to achieve this cost reduction in so called renewable energy sources. As far as I can tell the only renewable resources are agricultural, as in trees, etc. Coal will of course last much loner than most fossil fuels but wind turbines and solar panels all will have a shelf life as it were, and really are not renewable in the sense that some people think.
What percentage of the “Renewable Energy” advocates are also advocates of their own particular species of Socialism?
“Indeed, Russia derives 40% of its revenue from oil and gas sales, making it a de-facto petro-state. It, and other hydrocarbon revenue dependent nations, must accept their new reality, and react decisively, if they hope to survive in the age of renewables.” They “… must āadapt or dieā over the next 15-20 years.”
What does author Ariel Cohen expect these countries to do in the next 15-20 years to entirely reorder their economies? Will they use their excess oil, gas and coal to increase industrial production to replace that lost by countries moving massively into expensive unreliables?
Notice her whole conclusion is based on a series of unlikely-to-impossible assumptions about technology and economics. Forbes has degenerated into idiocy.
As for her ‘government policies,’ that will last until the Yellow Vests come out.
He is a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council. Remember him whenever you read about the Atlantic Council, or the Atlantic Treaty Association (don’t confuse with the NATO, but maybe they love to be confused).
I think she is a he. Can’t be too sure though, not even by the contents of her purse.
He was probably born male and continues to live as such. wiki He has made successful predictions. For instance, he warned about radical islamic groups before 911. His wiki article doesn’t mention failed predictions but he probably made more of those.
His analysis of what would happen to Russia if the west quit buying its oil is probably correct. His mistake is thinking that could happen due to renewable energy.
David Fair, I wrote a similar reply, although somewhat more heated, it still hasn’t been put up and yours wasn’t there when I wrote mine, so don’t think I was plagiarizing yours please. As for the way this site `”works” WTF? Confusing and annoying, otherwise a great site…but are you censoring us? I would remind you we are adults here and don’t care for that. I would possibly change my opinion if the sociopathic left started attacking the site with their unhinged propaganda bollocks.
Bill, I’m still irritably pondering why some of us see our comments appear normally and the rest of us wait until around the top of each hour to see the thread refreshed. “I suspect foul play, Sherman.” I am still perplexed that they appear to have done damage to this site which our dear friend Anthony has been challenged to undo. All the recent technical setbacks this blog has suffered suggest to this “educated consumer” that counteractive measures are being employed to disrupt and deter commenting where possible.
I believe I was placed on that ās-listā because my posts use to appear just moments after posting them, ā¦.. now itās the ole āhour laterā thingy every time.
That sure prevents one from quickly responding to anyone responding to your post and thus any viewers are long gone by the time you can respond. Judith Curry knows that āfeelingā.
For me some days the post come out instantly, other days I have to wait till the top of the hour.
It may be because Anthony is busy with other things (e.g., Heartland and Paradise aftermath), and I think moderating is probably not Charles’ favorite thing to do. So maybe it’s just easier for them to check every hour to moderate instead of doing so constantly.
I quit visiting a site (so long ago I don’t even recall the name) after the 2nd time I posted and then complained about the temporal delay. Both times a moderator degraded me for my impatience – after all he/she has a life as well. If you don’t have time to moderate a site, don’t!
As to this article, Germany will be begging fore Russian energy when they realize the re-newables aren’t reliable.
Ariel Cohen is editorializing, totally off the mark.
He is thinking batteries will be so abundant they will store any quantity of wind and solar, so these batteries would supply electricity in accordance with demand, 24/7/365, which likely would increase due to heat pumps and electric vehicles and GDP growth.
The only place Germany can put more wind is offshore, likely using floating wind turbines for deep water.
Germany is maxed out on solar, because without storage on distribution and high voltage grids, plus major upgrades of substations, the Duck Cuves will become unmanageable.
Mr Cohen does not understand the most basic of micro-economics.
Even if Europe could become 100% self-sufficient on unicorn gas and fairy dust to power its economy and homes, Russia’s oil and natural gas would drop in price, and would then become very attractive to the rest of the world, places that don’t have such huge herds of unicorns and other magical thinking…. the real world.
A real world where affordable energy is the currency of life and improving standards of living. You know, those things that Germany is throwing away in the name of a pagan climate religion.
It is just more US-led Russia-bashing.
Amazing that Yanks get terribly uppity when people dish out the same treatment to them.
They should think hard about that as the first trait of psychopaths is trashing others whilst saying it is unacceptable to trash them.
And no-one could ever label the US powers that be as psychopaths, eh?
Not US led … We cancelled Paris … The US is keading in thhe right direction …
It’s not bashing if it’s true.
Why don’t you deal with the contents of the claim rather than just whining about who it’s coming from.
PS: It is rather pyschopathic to believe that anything that isn’t socialism is uber capitalism.
So the attack is on again? Russia has invaded what lately, when will they stop? What did Europe do to stop them? Nothing?
But Europe loves Russia, you just want to get back to being part of the Oh So Successful Warsaw Pact with the high standard of living and great personal freedom.
So the first trait of psychopaths is trashing others, your #1 trait on this site when it comes to the US. Your opinion, not mine. I don’t think of you that way, just jealous.
I feel really lucky to have been born in the US, with a constitution that guaranties the right to keep and bear arms. That right was meant to ensure citizens the ability to protect ourselves from the GOVERNMENT. Being from Europe, and decedent from surfs or royalty, it is not your nature to be FREE MEN, only either subjects or rulers. You should be happy to get back to being a subject, but you know there are very few rulers. You may be a true believer, so you may end up being part of the ruling class, to subjugate everyone else.
Now I agree with you that US powers are psychopathic, that meaning the DEEP STATE, those actors who are in control of the massive bureaucracy and the leadership of both parties. Those running the MSM propaganda regime, with all the “leaks” from the bureaucratic deep state to lead the sheeple. The Russia Trump hoax, the climate insanity intended to lead to government control and eventually communism. You know, like the road the European Union is on. See Venezuela for reference.
Look at what the DEEP STATE in Great Britain are doing to stop Brexit. They can not allow the controlled to escape.
Thank GOD that Trump was elected, the first sane president since Reagan.
Who else would be trying to stop the spread of nuclear weapons and delivery systems to North Korea and Iran or support Brexit? Stop China’s takeover of eastern Asia? Maintain the open seas through the South China Sea? Surely not the rest of Europe.
As I have said here before, build the moon base, return all required production to the US mainland, and follow G. Washington’s admonition to keep to ourselves and let the rest of the world care for yourselves. It will surely be a mess, but I hope our antimissile defenses will be sufficient to protect North America from the rest of the world.
Of course, whacking their nuclear power plants didn’t help any as far as keeping warm in winter electrically goes.
Oh but it’s working! ( or so I hear ).
Hypothermia would however certainly solve the problem of too many useless low income and pension-reliant eaters.
Yikes- That’s me!
And me!
Ariel Cohen,
If you are reading this, I suggest you also carefully read this link!
https://rogerfromnewzealand.wordpress.com/2018/05/09/ever-been-told-that-the-science-is-settled-with-global-warming-well-read-this-and-decide-for-yourself/
Cheers’
Roger
” … We have now entered the era of the renewable energy resource, whereby zero-emission electricity is generated via near unlimited inputs (solar radiation, wind, tides, hydrogen, and eventually, deuterium). Cutting-edge, smart electric grids, utility-scale storage, and electric self-driving vehicles ā powered by everything from lithium-ion batteries to hydrogen fuel cells ā are critical elements of this historic energy transition. …”
>>
This person clearly has not paid a power bill in a long time, or else has so much money that they would tip the Maitre-d’ more than the total of their power bill.
‘critical elements of this historic energy transition’
Uhhh . . . What are you talking about? THEY DON’T EXIST !!!
Mr. Ariel Cohen has “now entered the era of the renewable energy resource, whereby zero-emission electricity is generated via near unlimited inputs (solar radiation, wind, tides, hydrogen, and eventually, deuterium).” No one will be buying Russian hydrocarbons. Russia is doomed unless it changes her ways. Hydrogen will grow on trees.
Confidently follow Mr. Cohen’s advice, and soon you won’t need (or be able) to buy hydrocarbons.
If the market for hydrogen really did grow that much (and various technical issues get majicked away) then those pesky Russians will supply us with hydrogen too-made from fossil fuels. It is currently the cheapest way to make bulk hydrogen, and I don’t see that changing until nuclear power is allowed to expand and make energy cheaper.
Lying at the root of all these green schemes is the inescapable fact that they are attempting to substitute reliable and cheap(ish) primary energy sources with much more expensive and unreliable ones. They are pushing on a piece of string. It can only go so far, and that is bigly done with subsidies and legally mandated purchase of wind and solar.
That which cannot expand beyond a certain point, will not do so. Green “victories” will be gained by outsourcing not only Western energy supplies but also much Western energy consumption to China and other locations beyond our borders. Like Western pollution, it will be out of sight, out of mind. When that happens, will the EU ban electricity imports from countries that don’t adhere to foolish EU generation-regulations? They may try, but the need for it will be too strongly embedded by then.
Putin will not be panicked like our pathetic idiots that pretend to pass for leaders into climate panic….should Western Europe continue with this madness two things will happen, there will be a violent social uprising and in my opinion that is overdue, and the price of oil and coal will fall…so those countries remaining using those fuels will have vastly lower power prices and all manufacturing currently in Western countries will go to the old Soviet Block countries and other non idiot countries….and rightly so.
Europe will attempt to freeze non renewable countries from trade deals but no-one will be buying their expensive stuff anyway other than similarly inflicted nations, [Snipped. Language. Lets try and not be vulgar. Mod]….except when you hear snippets from places like East Anglia where inter departmental emails like this one show how secure they feel in their insane predictions…”What do you think will happen if it all turns out to be natural variation?” “I guess they will hang us all.” Well I would agree that that is what should happen and would participate gleefully.
Who’s with me?
Fictional “Clean/Green” energy will economically starve countries attempting to implement them. It is just one facet of the Club of Rome’s depopulation scenario. Endless war is another, as is disease spread by banning useful pesticides.
When the world wakes up to this strategy, most of its people will have died, and that is the basic idea.
Bingo!
āwill economically starve countries attempting to implement them.ā
Yup, ā¦ā¦. like unlimited illegal immigration across US borders that all the Dem POTUS candidates are clamoring for.
I’m sure Vladimir Putin and Russia are quivering in their boots with fear… Not.
Well, if you go to gridwatch.templar.co.uk, and also read about UK’s energy history, you will find that:
1. They have gone heavily into solar and wind.
2. They have stopped using oil and coal for electricity.
3. They have greatly increased their use of natural gas to make up for their energy shortfalls for electricity production. They used to export natural gas. Now they import 55% of what they use.
So, if Germany and other European countries follow England’s lead, the amt of natural gas they burn is going to go up quite dramatically. Russia is in good shape.
BTW, you can download English grid data at this website into a spreadsheet and work the numbers. I did. In the last 17 months or so, NG accounted for 42% of their electricity generation. Solar, about 4%, and wind about 14%. The rest is from nuclear (25% counting French imported electricity).
I wish somebody would check my figures.
The whole thing is a joke.
Last month, Great Britain declared it went for one week without burning coal, with much green fanfare on how renewables were transforming their grid.
From the Guardian
“Greg Clark, the business secretary, hailed the achievement. He said the UK is āon a path to become the first major economy to legislate for net-zero emissionsā in the wake of the report.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/08/britain-passes-1-week-without-coal-power-for-first-time-since-1882
But then you realise it’s fake news. Only 10% of generation came from solar and wind, which is a massive failure when you consider the huge investments. To overcome the RE issue of no energy, they use over 50% gas, with nuclear and biofuels making up most of the rest and then claim how wonderful they are.
Shouldn’t we be looking at total daily demand and how many GW renewables are supplying?
For example this morning, Sunday 30/06/19 total renewables are providing 53.56% (12GW) of the UK’s electricity, but demand is only a shade over 22GW.
During the week demand doubles renewables will still be providing around 12GW or 25% of demand.
Percentages are meaningless without knowing demand.
Numbers: http://gridwatch.co.uk/
And theyāre pushing smart meters to āmanageā demand. Remote switch off…….
Lower oil prices arising from reduced demand will help countries that don’t buy into the deception and lies about CO2 emissions along with those who the deceptions and lies are designed to benefit.
A few years ago this almost went viral in Germany, although now ads might hide the subtitles…
https://youtu.be/xDQDyt0B-1E
There’s a worst scenario. UN might go nuts and attempt to forcibly “take control” and shut down Russian oil & mining industry.
After all, another German guy once attempted something similar.
Vitrification of Europe could ensue.
at least 4,000 Russian nuclear weapons, with at least half of those on theater-wide and intercontinental range missiles strongly argues otherwise to such folly. Even as much as the Chinese might covet the vast mineral wealth of Siberia, even a most Imperialistic Beijing would never be so stupid.
The Russians (and Putin) clearly have many strategic disadvantages on the world stage, but that is no reason to overlook their many showstoppers. Russian strategic powers lies in their intellectual abilities to carryout both in cyber warfare, LEO satellite disruption, and ultimately in nuclear deterrence of territorial aggression that threatens their survival.
Anyone who has ever underestimated the Russians in intellect and resolve have always found themselves on the losing end. The German Wehrmacht in 1941, to Obama and his cherished legacy and Russian political interference in 2016, all underestimated and both became losers.
The biggest threat to Russia is a continued low price for its fossil fuel energy exports. This Ariel Cohen analysis is simply garbage Wishful Thinking on wind mills. Renewable powers fundamental problems cannot be “wished away.” Russia’s real diminishment will happen when the rest of the world wakes up to the reality and need for fracking tight oil and gas reserves around the world, Canada’s final ability to export its heavy oil from bitumen, and then finally a long-term nuclear power build-out by the rest of the world.
Well Joel O’Bryan, that’s a very well taught and worded analysis we have here, thanks for sharing it !
Sometimes I tend to be more emotional ? Well, happens, on occasion we can befriend other crews resting in the same hotels. Russian included.
There are 2 very different breeds of them. Our alike “friendly push-button drivers” and the others, kind of way less talkative all similar sized guys with a perceivable different mindset.
They quietly stay together, never order alcohol, communicate with short sentences and don’t hang around after the meal.
Once I even shared a lift ride with 4 of them. Very polite, perfect English. However still cold ants running on my back when I think of what else they are type-rated to operate.
More likely, Germany’s economy will be hobbled by high-cost electricity and will be increasingly uncompetitive in world markets.
In contrast, Russia with its abundant fossil fuel resources, will have competitive advantages.
And it is their faith in their Green religion that will see them through bitterly cold winters… right?
China is in the market for some natural gas and oil.
What will probably happen is Germany will be importing *more* Russian natural gas in the future, not less.
This Cohen guy forgot:
Thanks to CO2 driven warming, people will forget the meaning of cold. Another nail in the coffin of bad bad bear.
These idiot neocons never give up. do they?
A more pertinent question, in my humble opinion, is whether Germany’s economy and society will survive their Energiewende program. Shutting down their nuclear power plants was politically popular after Chernobyl and Fukushima meltdowns, but removes a significant source of base load power. Germany has gone back to running some base load power plants on inefficient but cheap and locally sourced Brown Coal.
So far, oil and natural gas are the most economical and reliable energy sources. Wind and Solar were promoted as “free energy”, but their capture is very expensive, the wind varies with weather, and Solar disappears at night (every night) and is a poor source on cloudy days. Battery storage is expensive, and, so far, inadequate.
So far, Energiewende has seen very steep increases in electricity prices in Germany, causing many business and industrial customers to complain, and even threaten to move their facilities elsewhere.
As for Russia, it has market opportunities outside the European Union – pipelines to China are coming on line and more are in the planning stages, and Russia has expanded its ocean shipping capacity for oil and natural gas, particularly via the Pacific Ocean.
The EU is desperately trying to take control of Russia’s oil and natural gas pipelines, and to take pricing control away from Russia, by imposing their 3rd Energy Package rules, which indicates that the EU does not see any quick and economical alternatives to the supplies of energy from Russia.
Real estate for wind can also be expensive, especially considering that no one wants to live near these bird and bat choppers.
I searched the world-wide web on this claim of declining renewable energy costs will diminish the value of Russian natural gas supplies to Europe and I found this:
b>The official Russian government reaction to the above
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dYTfzfsbiUI
I think I have to concur with Vladimir on this one.
For Ariel Cohen re: the YouTube clip above:
President Putin: “Š¢Ń Š¼ŠµŠ½Ń ŃŠ¼ŠµŃŠøŃŃ” (“Ty menya smeshish’)
Translation to English: “You make me laugh”
Ditto for me Ariel.
Reacting emotionally to the alarmist projections of people who donāt know what they are talking about is dangerous. It leads to irrational decision making which attracts rent seekers who will bankrupt the economy.
Like, “Windmills? How many do you want?”
“Back in the real world post nuclear Germany, home of Energiewende, is so desperate for real energy they are preparing to tear down ancient forests in Hambach to get at the coal beneath the trees”
In fact, the link says that they have agreed not to tear down the forest.
Until 2020, Nick.
Personally, I’d prefer the forest to be protected.
Ariel is delusional – fossil fuels will be around for many more decades. Russia will be fine.
Excerpt from my latest paper:
12. Fossil fuels comprise fully 85% of global primary energy, unchanged in decades, and unlikely to change in future decades.
The remaining 15% of global primary energy is almost all hydro and nuclear.
Eliminate fossil fuels tomorrow and almost everyone in the developed world would be dead in about a month from starvation and exposure.
Despite trillions of dollars in squandered subsidies, global green energy has increased from above 1% to below 2% is recent decades.
Intermittent energy from wind and/or solar generation cannot supply the electric grid with reliable, uninterrupted power.
āGreen energyā schemes are not green and produce little useful (dispatchable) energy, because they require almost 100% conventional backup from fossil fuels, nuclear or hydro when the wind does not blow and the Sun does not shine.
There is no widely-available, practical, cost-effective means of solving the fatal flaw of intermittency in grid-connected wind and solar power generation.
Hydro backup and pumped storage are only available in a few locations. Other grid-storage systems are very costly, although costs are decreasing.
To date, vital electric grids have been destabilized, electricity costs have increased greatly, and Excess Winter Deaths have increased due to grid-connected green energy schemes.
Reference: āStatistical Review of World Energyā
https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html
Reference: āWind Report 2005ā – note Figs. 6 & 7 re intermittency.
http://www.wind-watch.org/documents/wp-content/uploads/eonwindreport2005.pdf
Excerpted from “CO2, Global Warming, Climate and Energy” by Allan M.R. MacRae, B.A.Sc., M.Eng.
pdf: https://thsresearch.files.wordpress.com/2019/06/co2-global-warming-climate-and-energy-june2019-final-.pdf
Excel spreadsheet: https://thsresearch.files.wordpress.com/2019/06/co2-global-warming-climate-and-energy-june2019-final.xlsx
Magical thinking: say it will happen, and then be convinced that it will.
It would be the height of insanity to take solar PV or wind, store that energy in a battery, and then heat your house or water with electricity. Especially when there is abundant cheap NG that is at its absolute best for thermal heating at a 95%+ total efficiency. Burning the raw gas itself is the most efficient, since making electricity in a CCGT is only 60% efficient, so using electric heat from NG electricity doesn’t make much sense either, even though electricity itself is very efficient.
Doing stupid things like that will kill any good that they think they were doing in the first place, which was to create high value electricity and then waste it for low grade heat. Just imagine covering your roof in real low efficient solar panels and then using the electricity to heat water or the house itself. First off, it won’t even work in winter, when you need it the most. I don’t understand the logic in some of these people not being able to see the big picture or understand basic logic. It doesn’t work when you need it the most.
“Especially when there is abundant cheap NG that is at its absolute best for thermal heating at a 95%+ total efficiency. Burning the raw gas itself is the most efficient, since making electricity in a CCGT is only 60% efficient, so using electric heat from NG electricity doesnāt make much sense either, even though electricity itself is very efficient. ”
Excellent point.
The more natural gas burned directly by the household, the less CO2 put in the atmosphere. Perhaps those concerned with reducing CO2 should promote more natual gas burning in individual homes.
Just have a look at the diagrams of “Agora” and you will see the reality!https://www.agora-energiewende.de/service/agorameter/chart/power_generation/23.06.2019/30.06.2019/
The “Energiewende” is wishful Thinking, a scam and moonshine! Tales for Greens and morons!
Germany will be in need of more natural gas and will have to import more electric power if the green blockheads really shut down coal- and nuclear-power-plants.
Putin must be shaking in his boots …. although I suspect he and Xi Jinping must be laughing at getting the greens and educated left stupids to attack capitialism.
There is an irony that if capitialism did fall the sort of public dissent from these idiots would see them put up against the wall or in re-education camps.
Energiewende has shown te world that renewable energy is not a practical solution to the problem that doesn’t exist anyway.
Russia has engineers, They know man cannot live by windmills alone.
the Greens have massively increased Russian profits as coal and nuclear have been demonized, only Russian gas is left to provide an energy backbone.
If Russia didn’t invent climate change, its would be foolish of it to stop the onward march of renewables.
Oh, wait, you mean that was serous? I thought I was reading one of David Middleton’s guest sarcasms!
Can I make some money out of this misapprehension? Short something? Any ideas?
… assuming that Russia can not sell its oil and gas to somebody less nutty – e.g., China, India, …
The Power of Siberia pipeline is supposed to supply China with Russian natural gas by the end of this year.
Btw just returned from a very prosperous Uzbekistan where we covered a lot of ground by bus and never saw a windmill. Guide said someone is installing some solar panels south of Tashkent. (300 days sun/yr). Otherwise flourished on oil, gas (to China) coal, minerals rare earths, agriculture having rejected Soviet cotton monoculture. The Paris Agreement ? I donāt think so.
Cohen is a lawyer who claims to be an energy expert.
Nuff said!
And Forbes believes The Man in the High Castle is real.
Forbes has lost the bubble!
Russia has a resource problem at its hands for sure. But it’s not the Energiewende or any other Green program that’s causing it or even making it worse. Contrary what some tend to believe the Energiewende increases the need for quick load balancing for those renewable and fickle sources so that makes the day of Natural Gas which Russia is a big exporter of. Clean energy makes Russias day – Putin sure loves that. There is a much bigger threat for Russia on the horizon though. Russia needs new reserves. Luckily it has a lot of untapped oil and gas. However its in pretty hard to reach places and therefore costs a pretty penny to develop. Many shale fields are already a lot cheaper to develop. History has not been kind to those that have the more expensive to develop resources. Don’t expect every last drop of Russian oil to be extracted. Far from it.
+1
“The stone age ended not because we ran out of stones. The same with oil and gas.”
That is one of the STUPIDEST, MOST UNEDUCATED, IDIOTIC statement ever made. It’s equivalent to “we did not starve because we ran out of food, we ran out of cooking utensiles”. And this from Forbes????? Americans have become drooling fools, knuckle dragging cavemen. We didn’t run out of the Stone Age, the troglodytes just wear suits now.
“The stone age didn’t end because we ran out of stones” is an old saying. It has survived because there is truth in it.
Tell ,em theyāre dreaming!
āThe stone age ended not for lack of stones. The same with oil and gas.ā
A corollary to this old chestnut:
The CAGW Hoax didnāt end for lack of hoaxers, but rather lack of evidence….
+1
Russia under Putin understands very well the use and power of ‘Gesture Politics’, and will always deploy such tactics to delay and defray any requirement for immediate actions. To this end (IMO) they will be similar to India, China and many other ‘developing’ nations, adopting the appearance of just enough change to be sufficient enough to deflect most criticism.
that must be why both Germany and Russia are investing billions in building NorthStream2, knowing demand will collapse. LOL.
Cohen is no scientist. But he is a good example of the pseudointelligentsiya, people who think they are well informed about technical or scientific issues but are in fact clueless. Heās not alone – the ranks of the pseudointelligentsiya number in the billions. Theyāve bought into the climate catastrophe story because they find it morally and politically satisfying. Their self-important minds are however sterile of any real deep understanding of either the climate or industrial technology. So the predictions that they make about both will turn out to be absurdly false to the point of Ehrlich-esque.
O yes – and theyāre racist; they canāt look at a Russian without having a gas chamber fantasy. But thatās very fashionable in left wing circles.
Russia is involved in producing energy for themselves and others by building and operating nuclear power reactors around the world – all of them Gen 3+ reactors and just last week launched their first floating small modular reactor ships that will sail to coastal cities and towns supply power. The ships will be operated by Russians and sell power to the towns and cities. The Russians often are paid ro operate and almost always to refuel the reactors they build. Their costs are very competitive (often around $5 – 6 billion per gigawatt+ reactor) and right now are involved in building several dozen reactors around the world. There are more than 600 reactors planned or proposed and Russia will likely build half of them and operate and refuel them as well. Reactors often last 60 years plus, so the business to refuel and maintain and operate those reactors can be a long term income stream.
Thanks for that very interesting information, ColMosby. š
The fossil fuel prohibition is popular now but wonāt last, people will tire of it like they did of the alcoholic drink prohibition a century ago.
https://ptolemy2.wordpress.com/2017/06/05/when-science-had-no-shame-the-poem-passage-to-india-by-walt-whitman/
Nord Stream II could end like the Sutro Tunnel but it’s hard to see it at this point. Sutro provided a benefit that last a short time before leaving it to the sad investors.
HAHAHA. If Germanyās Energiewende ever matured, it will be the ruin oif Germany. Fortunately the Germans aren’t that stupid and are using coal.
Well, this is all fine and good and to be wished for – but only the most naĆÆvely cretinous person would describe the Russian (Note: Not Soviet – that came to an end many, many years ago – keep up!) system as Socialist or Marxist. Totalitarian, fascist, kleptocratic bureaucracy, yes, much like the dear ol’ US of A in fact – I don’t hear anyone claiming that the US is a socialist state (well, so long as we don’t count people who think that looking after the poor and disadvantaged in society is the same as Communism. You’d have to be so titanically stupid to think that, that you’d probably vote for Trump). Russia’s problem is that the current market-driven economy, not the old Soviet-style centrally planned economy, is reliant on commodities and raw materials – gas, oil, steel, aluminium, lumber etc. which are dependant on global prices. Still, anything that puts the bear back in it’s box can’t be a bad thing. Apart from for the ordinary Russian people of course… they always have it bad, no matter who’s wearing the Big Hats.
‘so long as we donāt count people who think that looking after the poor and disadvantaged in society’
Shunting it off to government is NOT ‘looking after the poor and disadvantaged in society.’ It is YOUR duty, not government’s.
Largest ‘renewable’ source in Germany is biomass.
Which will, according to a new study, emit more CO2, even if it replaces coal.
“In sum, although bioenergy from wood can lower long-run CO2 concentrations compared to fossil fuels, its first impact is an increase in CO2, worsening global warming over the critical period through 2100 even if the wood offsets coal, the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel.”
“With the US forest parameters used here, growth in the wood pellet industry to displace coal aggravates global warming at least through the end of this century, even if the industry stops growing by 2050.”
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa512/pdf
At least it helps in the statistics, because biomass burning is counted with 0 contribution to CO2 emissions.
(similar story for biogas, due to methane leaks …)