Guest Commentary by David Archibald
The area planted for corn and soybeans this season is well below historic averages. This was mostly due to waterlogged fields and flooding which precluded planting. The planting windows for corn and soybeans are now closed. The USDA crop progress reports provide weekly updates by state. For example this is the state of the corn crop in Indiana to Monday June 17:
Figure 1: Indiana corn crop progress to Monday June 17.
The emerged crop is one month behind where it was in 2018. Which means that maturity will be one month later at best, assuming that the rest of the summer isn’t abnormally cold.
Figure 2 shows that the same situation in soybeans in Indiana:
Figure 2: Indiana soybean crop progress to Monday June 17.
The current expectation is that the US corn crop will be down 30% on 2018 which will push the price to about $9.00 per bushel at harvest. What could make the situation a lot worse is an early frost. The Corn Belt did warm slightly over the last 100 years due to the high solar activity of the second half of the 20th century. This is shown by the cumulative growing degree days (GDD) of the first decade of the 20th century (blue lines) compared to the first decade of the 21st century (red lines) in Figure 3 for Whitestown, Indiana:
Figure 3: Cumulative GDD for Whitestown, Indiana
Normally, for the 21st century, the corn crop is in the ground by April 27 and the crop has reached maturity with 2,500 GDD well before the normal first frost date for Whitestown of October 10. The earliest recorded date for Whitestown is September 3. That was in 1908. If that is repeated in 2019 the crop will be only 80% through its growth cycle. Yield and quality will be well down and the total crop may be 50% or less of the 2018 level.
The US will be able to feed itself but at much higher prices. Currently some 40% of the corn crop goes to ethanol production and this could be redirected to animal feed without too much trouble. But protein production would still be well down. Each 56 lb bushel of corn used in ethanol production results in 18 lbs of dried distillers grains (DDG) containing the protein. This is used as a feed supplement to pigs, chickens and cattle. Both pigs and chickens have a 25% conversion efficiency of vegetable protein to animal protein. The global warmers want us to adopt vegetarianism in order to save the planet. The public is going to get a taste of that future coming up soon. However animal fat is essential for infant neurological development and brain function so we can’t go completely vegetarian.
What is happening in the Corn Belt is a mini version of the transition from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age. The population of Europe exploded in benign conditions of the Medieval Warm Period from 1000 AD to 1300 AD, reaching population levels that weren’t matched again until the 19th century. In fact parts of rural France have less population today than at the beginning of the 14th century.
The breakover from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age in Europe had sustained periods of bad weather characterised by severe winters and rainy and cold summers. The Great Famine of 1315 – 1317 started with bad weather in the spring of 1315. Crop failures lasted through 1316 until the summer of 1317. The population decline over the two years is thought to be about 10%, associated with “extreme levels of crime, disease, mass death, cannibalism and infanticide.” These conditions may be less in the Mormons amongst us who are instructed to keep one year’s worth of food in stock.
The Modern Warm Period ended in 2006. Current solar activity is back to levels of the Little Ice Age. To paraphrase Santayana, those who don’t remember history are condemned to being surprised and unprepared when it repeats itself.
A large and increasing number of nations are feeding their population growth with imported grain. That is going to be become more expensive to continue, with or without an early frost in the Corn Belt. Global warming hysteria has been a consequence of very benign conditions for the OECD countries where it is concentrated. That angst will be supplanted by more basic concerns.
David Archibald is the author of American Gripen: The Solution to the F-35 Nightmare
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The recent destruction of much of the Chinese pig population due to African Swine Fever virus will allviate some demand for soy beans. And the flexibility of less corn to ethanol allows more here for hog and chicken feed. Grass is going to be in abundance though for hay for cattle and diary operations. And in the south, high fall corn prices will reduce demand for hunters’ “deer corn” which is a discretionary luxury, and thus an elastic demand.
We’ll do just fine, because North American farmers are adaptable. Where the problems can arise though are in the 3rd world and Russia if early frosts arrive before harvest.
Hog operations here in the US will likely profit handsomely as Chinese appetite for pork will still have to be sated with US exported pork bellies. The best option at this point is to fill the (second?) freezer with good cuts of chicken, beef and hamburger NOW to get through to next spring.
My mother grew up in the dirty thirties on the prairies. The stories I grew up with weren’t about people adapting and succeeding. If Mother Nature decides to smack us, farmers won’t be able to keep up production no matter what they do.
What this should really indicate is that there will be far less corn available to use as a fuel source.
Food for Food
Though realistically we will be told that the corn available for food has been reduced by 60% but miraculously there is sufficient for making all required ethanol
Probably a dumb question, but can/do they use the same corn varietals for ethanol, livestock feed, and eating? I do “know” (probably) that popcorns are a different variety from the rest.
Livestock and ethanol production use the same field corn, but corn for human consumption is a different variety. So field corn planted and intended for the ethanol plant could be redirected to feed livestock.
Farmers weren’t that adaptable in the 1930’s.
Early mechanization led to poor soil practices with knowledge of the consequences.
1930’s:
Lack of information.
Lack of irrigation resources.
Lack of knowledge of soil conservation.
Much better cultivars today.
Pest control available (herbicides and pesticides) today.
Access to broad range of markets. Government more willing to offer loans and grants to see them through a bad year.
That sad-bad part are the misguided Looney Lefties in their desire to take us back to 1850’s level of development, including agriculture. Yet they all demand their fresh green salads, “natural” breads, craft brewed beers from barley, wheat, and other grains and hops. Somehow the AOC-Bernie cult of scientifically illiterate idiots and morons think the sacrifices will all be someone else’s, not theirs.
Where did you get this nonsense? “… animal fat is essential for infant neurological development and brain function”. I call BS. Check your source.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/02/23/study-a-solar-signature-in-many-climate-indices/#comment-2639806
https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=664274552
Happy Birthday Lord Monckton. You might enjoy this note that I posted today.
Best personal regards, Allan in freezing cold Calgary
_________________________________________________________________
Brian Walters wrote on February 1 at 7:43pm · “Hey Allan MacRae…looks like you and the folks at NASA can agree on this!!”
NASA SEES CLIMATE COOLING TREND THANKS TO LOW SUN ACTIVITY
https://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/environment/item/30214-nasa-sees-climate-cooling-trend-thanks-to-low-sun-activity/
Thank you Brian for remembering.
We published with confidence in 2002 in a written debate with the Pembina Institute, sponsored by APEGA:
“Climate science does not support the theory of catastrophic human-made global warming – the alleged warming crisis does not exist.”
and
“The ultimate agenda of pro-Kyoto advocates is to eliminate fossil fuels, but this would result in a catastrophic shortfall in global energy supply – the wasteful, inefficient energy solutions proposed by Kyoto advocates simply cannot replace fossil fuels.”
Past decades of actual global observations adequately prove that these two statements are correct to date. Since then, many trillions of dollars and millions of lives have been wasted due to false global warming alarmism and costly intermittent green energy schemes. Any global warming observed to date has been mild and net-beneficial to humanity and the environment – the only measurable effect of the increase in atmospheric CO2 is greatly-increased plant and crop yields.
I wrote in an article published 1Sept2002 in the Calgary Herald:
“If [as we believe] solar activity is the main driver of surface temperature rather than CO2, we should begin the next cooling period by 2020 to 2030.”
My (our) now-imminent global cooling prediction predates Theodor Landscheidt’s 2003 paper. I’d be happy to be wrong about that cooling prediction, but it’s looking pretty good, based on the crash in solar activity in Solar Cycle 24 – the lowest since the Dalton Minimum (circa 1800).
NEW LITTLE ICE AGE INSTEAD OF GLOBAL WARMING?
Theodor Landscheidt, First Published May 1, 2003
https://doi.org/10.1260/095830503765184646
I will stand with this prediction – for moderate, natural cooling, similar to that which occurred from ~1940 to the Great Pacific Climate Shift of 1977, despite increasing atmospheric CO2. As stated previously, I hope to be wrong, because humanity and the environment suffer during cold periods.
The first two predictions of 2002 are correct to date. If I get my third 2002 prediction for imminent global cooling correct as well, it will be a perfect Trifecta.
Then, I will write Sweden and demand the IPCC’s Nobel Prize. 🙂
Regards, Allan
Last week, my friend Joe D’Aleo and I discussed the late planting in the USA grain belt. Planting occurred about one month late last year as well, but an excellent summer led to a good crop. This year the crop situation is more worrisome.
Here in Alberta, it feels colder, like the Winters and Springs of several decades ago.
Told you so , 17 years ago.
“CO2, Global Warming, Climate and Energy”
by Allan M.R. MacRae, B.A.Sc., M.Eng. June 2019
pdf:
https://thsresearch.files.wordpress.com/2019/06/co2-global-warming-climate-and-energy-june2019-final-.pdf
Excel spreadsheet:
https://thsresearch.files.wordpress.com/2019/06/co2-global-warming-climate-and-energy-june2019-final.xlsx
10. I wrote in an article published 1Sept2002 in the Calgary Herald:
“If [as we believe] solar activity is the main driver of surface temperature rather than CO2, we should begin the next cooling period by 2020 to 2030.”
I will stand with this prediction – for moderate, natural cooling, similar to that which occurred from ~1940 to the Great Pacific Climate Shift of 1977, despite accelerating fossil fuel combustion and atmospheric CO2. Similar cooling occurred from ~1945 to 1977 as fossil fuel consumption accelerated.
I now think global cooling will start closer to 2020. The following plot explains why (Fig.10).
I hope to be wrong, because humanity and the environment suffer during cold periods.
Fig.10 – Apparent Coherence of Total Solar Irradiance, Sea Surface Temperature and Lower Tropospheric Temperature, interrupted by the 1998 El Nino
http://woodfortrees.org/plot/pmod/offset:-1360/scale:0.2/plot/hadsst3gl/from:1980/plot/uah6/from:1980
Regards, Allan
Allan, we noticed here in the Northeast as well. My son is a farmer and a lot of the crops have been planted later than usual. The farm made a lot of use of their greenhouses to germinate crops like corn so even with the later planting they should be pretty much on schedule unless it ends up being a cool and wet summer. Other crops will likely be OK as long as there isn’t an early frost. Only time will tell.
Late planting is OK as there are now lots of varieties of corn and soybean with lower GDD requirements. In Canada, there are corn lines which mature at 1750 or so without too much trouble. Farmers can switch to lower GDD hybrids, although I guess there will have been seed availability issues in some places.
However, as David pointed out, even late planting wasn’t an option this year as waterlogged fields have meant no planting at all. Farmers probably have options for forage crops so they will get some production from these fields, but the protein levels of forage (and hay) are just not there for high efficiency meat production. Animal feed prices are going to rise in the US and Canada – how much of that will be passed on to consumers remains to be seen as there is a very price-sensitive market for wholesale products and the supermarket chains have a lot of buying power.
There will be some very very tight margins in the meat industry this winter and some companies are going to go to the wall – expect shouts for government handouts linked to climate change – just don’t ask which way the climate is changing!
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/02/16/quote-of-the-week-andrew-bolt-nails-fakegate/#comment-771037
Allan MacRae says:
February 16, 2012 at 10:26 pm
[excerpt}
Jimbo says:
I suspect this is why they have now changed their tactics and predict everything. Faster, slower, warmer, colder, wetter drier, etc. This is also why they change their propaganda slogan from Catastrophic Anthropogenic (Runaway) Global Warming.
Long live warmcold.
_______________________
Allan says:
Good point Jimbo – the warmists are now married to “The Non-Falsifiable Hypothesis”, where EVERYTHING, EVEN GLOBAL COOLING, IS EVIDENCE OF DANGEROUS MANMADE GLOBAL WARMING.
So I herewith restate my (falsifiable) hypothesis:
“You can save yourselves a lot of time, and generally be correct, by simply assuming that EVERY SCARY PREDICTION the global warming alarmists express is FALSE.”
Perhaps, with time and continued nonsense from the warmists, this Hypothesis will become a Theory, or even a Law (“The Law of Warmist BS”).
Who do I ask if I can print out this article and send it to President Trump?
He seriously needs to kill the ethanol from corn program/mandate (or from any other food crop) as it raises the price of corn by existing and will force it even higher by existing in times of bad crop yields.
On the contrary, they just approved 15% gasohol all year round, which will be truly harmful for engines.
Ethanol from corn is a broken window economy, in which a business was created to save gasoline that costs more, yields less energy, and damages equipment, providing no advantage to anyone by the crony capitalists who were urged and aided to create a business that should not be.
Infrastructure these days allows a lot of agriculture to move with the seasons. For example, I can buy asparagus in the winter because it comes from Peru and not, say, Michigan. Same with other fruits and vegetables. As far as grain crops go, I suppose the productive zones would move further south, but I don’t know enough about the details of that kind of production. For sure, places like Canada and Russia might find themselves too cold to grow winter wheat and other such crops.
Hopeful thinking but not necessarily so. Modern farm equipment is designed for use on certain types of ground — mostly flat and open. Although corn will grow on rough, rocky hillsides (given extra care and more room than on nice loamy soil), modern equipment simply cannot navigate the terrain — that means it can’t be harvested mechanically. (There aren’t enough farm workers to harvest by hand.) Similarly, corn & wheat & soybeans grow poorly or not at all on naturally poor soil. That’s why people raise cattle, sheep, and goats on rough land that is able to produce graze, but unable to produce crops.
In theory, we can visualize crops growing everywhere that weather is suitable — but, in reality, conditions in hilly country and poor soil limit productive capacity….and people won’t just give up their land to accommodate somebody else’s plans. So, it ain’t gonna happen.
PS: This year’s crop losses are world wide, not just the US. We can’t import what doesn’t exist.
I’m a North American farmer, and I’m only adaptable as far as my bank account will allow. I am not infinitely adaptable, as you seem to imagine. Last year’s terrible hay crop killed my bank account, as hay increased over 100%. This year’s falling feeder calf prices are putting my account into a pine box six feet under. And, oh yeah, we’re not getting the hay in this year, because it is constantly raining. We’ll keep trying until we can’t anymore but there’s a good chance we won’t be buying any either, because we’re broke. Broke farmers don’t produce food. That’s the reality.
Chinese hog losses may decrease demand for soybeans for hog feed — but what will China’s people eat instead of their meat-mainstay? Soy, perhaps? Which increases the soybean demand along with their increased need for meat protein — and where will that come from? This just scratches the surface; crop losses from heat, cold, drought, and flood are world wide. Every nation will be scrambling for food this fall.
Folks, please get real. Never, in my entire life (6 decades plus), have I seen a growing situation as dire as this one. No amount of happy platitudes about farmer adaptability will overcome what nature is throwing at us. We need to take this seriously, because it is NOT getting better anytime soon.
Dave,
How interesting–the weather pattern this winter, the late planting season, and continued snow in Colorado and Montana this week reminded me of the descriptions of weather patterns in Europe in 1309-1317, the beginning of the Little Ice Age. I said to myself, I wonder if this is the beginning of a new cold period like the beginning of the LIA.
You may be correct, but no-one really knows how the climate operates, or whether the sun will warm up or cool down. Citing past trends is just a form of curve-fitting. In the absence of genuine understanding I suppose that similar cyclic observations would have to be favoured to repeat.
One good thing is that, since CAGW morphed into Climate Change, any distasteful climate phenomenon can be blamed on humans and the doomsayers will still look good. Climate Science wins! … ??
Agreed. No one can accurately predict the future if you include timing. There are trends that reappear, everything has to fit within the laws of physics and human nature, but it is virtually impossible to ever know the timing.
Doomsday people always win. You can bank on that one. Human nature to love failure and disaster…..
The field across the road from us has been Corn or Soybeans for as far back as we can remember. At least since the early 80’s, when Dad built our house out here in Northern Indiana. The field across the creek behind us was the same.
This year, we were surprised to see a crop coming in in both of those fields, despite the near constant rainfall keeping any tractors out of those fields… a crop of Winter Wheat.
A week or two ago we had a couple of dry days, and the tractors DID finally show, spraying the Wheat with a drying agent (desiccating). It’s now a ripe golden brown, ready to be harvested the next time we get a few dry days.
Apparently SOMEBODY predicted this was going to be a wet spring, clear back last fall. And they switched to a different crop, one that would work WITH the increased early rainfall.
Funny how that works, idn’t it?
~¿~
More glyphosate to dry the crops. Wonderful
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crop_desiccation
So, in the roughly 1 in 10 times their testing actually found Glyphosate, it never exceeding about 1/16 the Maximum level that somebody determined was safe (probably a Leftist, who pulled it out of the same orifice they pulled the 2 degree maximum safe global warming). And it usually averaged under 1% of that limit.
Not that it matters, since DOZENS of investigations from everyone up to the EPA and FDA has proven it isn’t carcinogenic. Not that you’d know that from the Yellow Stream Media, since the only study they ever quote is the clearly fraudulent one from the organization of litigation lawyers that run a ‘Scientific’ Cancer research group that has NEVER found anything they’ve investigated to be noncarcinogenic.
~¿~
ps I’ve had a Lefty friend explain to me that it doesn’t matter if the Glyphosate can be detected, because Homiopathy proves it’s still dangerous after all trace is gone. >¿<
On the other hands, patterns that repeat, are likely to repeat again.
Evidence? I have not found that to verifiable. Have you?
It looks like the early 80’s in Wyoming. Growing season was short and winters were very harsh, at negative 40 degrees most of the month of December and massive snowfall not melted by chinook winds. I’m hoping that’s what we are seeing again.
It snowed briefly in Laramie yesterday morning. I never recall such late snow in my entire life. Even the mid-1970s never produced snow so late. When I was actively farming 1982-1996 I had one year, 1993 I think, when I had to replant corn in mid-June because of a freeze. Had to go to pinto beans instead.
The question now is, will we see early snowfall in late August?
The latest I have seen snow in Casper was June 10th. August 23, 2015 it got down to 29° in Casper. It stayed warm thereafter until October and my garden recovered and produced well. You really never know.
People are often surprised the find it snows every month except July in parts of Wyoming, and can snow in the mountains in July.
You all somehow survived though so growing seasons could not have been catastrophic?
Europe somehow survived 1970 when late soring snow depths were worse than 2019.
There needs to be measured thought, not wonderful or disaster and nothing in between.
Not so sure about the Europe Survived meme…
since there is highly questionable intelligence evident in EU decisions, the entier place could be members of the great zombie horde
Arrived in western MT yesterday and mountain snow cover is significant. Lows in mid 40s and highs in 60s. Hopefully just weather.
Come to France, my dear. It’s a bit warm, these days.
This is far too pessimistic assessment. The Black Death caused deaths of large number of population estimated anywhere between 70 to 150 million people in Europe and parts of Asia, most Europe’s deaths occurred around 1350.
As far as possible grand solar minimum and N. Hemisphere temperature is concerned effect may not be as great as suggested an no LIA type cooling is on cards as far as I can see it.
Dalton minimum was just couple of cycles which wasn’t long enough for temperature to drop significantly, most of the reduction is thought to be due to couple of large volcanic eruptions.
Maunder Minimum lasted 5 – 6 cycles, the fall in temperature started after about 20+ years. According to my calculations, if they are any good
http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/NH-GM.htm
show what might happen if there is another Maunder type minimum in the next few decades, depending on the 60 year and the multi-centenary cycles.
Vuksavic-san:
The LIA actually started from the Wolf Grand Solar Minimum (1280~1350), during which time, roughly 25% of the European population died from : exposure from extremely cold winters, delayed planting, early and late-season frost lost, droughts, floods, tubers frozen solid in the ground, frozen waterways, very short growing seasons, etc.
The Black Death started two years after the Wolf GSM ended from 1352, and wiped out the remaining 50% of a weakened European population…
Mother Nature can be a real bi#@ch!
The Black Death started in the 1330s in China, spreading to Europe by 1347, via the Crimean city of Kaffa. Plague was present somewhere in Europe between 1346 & 1671.
No, no, not the Soy Beans.
What will happen to all those unfilled latte orders.
Soy milk is out of fashion. link There are all kinds of non-dairy milks. Oat milk seems to have been the latest craze. link
“Oatboy” just doesn’t carry the same connotation as “soyboy” does … does oat milk have the same actual (or otherwise) negative effect that soy consumption supposedly is said to have on the male physique and libido?
OH NO…NOT SOY…how will they ever deal with the loss of the great Tofuti Beist
_Jim: Us Highlanders know better, and our wives are greatful…. Oats, the food of Champions. BrettKeane
Soymilk – the hazards*:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOochquOIoo
.
.
.
.
* Intended as humor, or humour, depend on your locale.
Immortalized in song – SOY ANTHEM, by Owen Benjamin
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FkD4iU9nxkM
.
.
.
Again, in the category of humor, or humour, depending on locale.
Milk is produced in the mammaries of mammals. Anything else is not milk but simply a liquid that somewhat resembles milk. Words have meaning….
People get all spun up about rejecting ‘franken food’ but will slurp up any white slurry made from ‘who knows what’, as long as it has the word ‘milk’ tacked onto the label.
Where does milkweed fall on the milk scale?
A weed that produces a white sticky sap that resembles mammalian produced milk.
Not milk.
Or they’ll slurp up puss filled lactation. No accounting for taste.
“Current solar activity is back to levels of the Little Ice Age”.
What on earth makes you come out with such a dogmatic statement.
Such things seriously damage your credibility,- and I think you will find Leif totally disagrees with you.
I don’t believe you.
Here in Ural we have a cold start to summer but a blocking high over all of Scandinavia already for 6-8 weeks.
Little ice age?
I don’t see it, we haven’t had a really cold winter in at least 7 years
(look up Estonia ice roads to check! You will see they have scarcely opened them for more than 4-6 weeks in a decade!)
He did say solar activity, not conditions. Reading is fundamental.
Some folks in N America may disagree w/ you about “no cold winters”. Maybe it is just weather. However, I’ve seen some reconstructions of global temps during past grand minimums showing uneven cooling.
Circulation in the lower stratosphere has a huge impact on the jet streams in the upper troposphere. Therefore, scientists underestimate the changes in chemical composition in the lower stratosphere in the period of low magnetic activity of the Sun. These changes result from an increase in the ionization of the lower stratosphere by galactic radiation.
http://oi65.tinypic.com/294mhad.jpg
Circulation in the lower stratosphere is perfectly visible in the troposphere. What’s more, it is a very stable circulation. This is due to the constant distribution of ozone in the lower stratosphere.
http://oi64.tinypic.com/16awrh4.jpg
Ozone is not dispersed in the lower stratosphere above the polar circles. Occurs in specific areas in large clusters. In the period of low magnetic activity of the Sun, the distribution of ozone depends on the strength of the magnetic field over the polar circles.
“In satellite imagery, Stratospheric Intrusions are identified by very low moisture levels in the water vapor channels (6.2, 6.5, and 6.9 micron). Along with the dry air, Stratospheric Intrusions bring high amounts of ozone into the tropospheric column and possibly near the surface.”
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_int/
Ozone as a diamagnetic is repelled by the magnetic field.
We say it is paramagnetic. Good oxygen measurement cells are paramagnetic devices.
O2 is paramagnetic, unlike O3, which is diamagnetic.
“We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan, “If this rain doesn’t stop.”
And stop it did, in God’s good time; . . .
[P J Hartigan (John O’Brien) – Australian Bush Poetry]
Please see how another wave of dry cold air from the south reaches Australia.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/webAnims/tpw_nrl_colors/ausf/mimictpw_ausf_latest.gif
yeah, thanks….its damned cold day and night presently, the frogs stopped singing after the first frosts , whats left of the garden is now frost burnt n sad looking. some rain to warm it up would be nice
Surface temperature waves in the eastern equatorial Pacific correspond to waves in the lower stratosphere.
The increase in ionization in the stratosphere results in an increase in geopotential above the polar circle.
In the following years, due to the decrease in the magnetic activity of the Sun, the amount of stratospheric intrusion will increase. The result will be an increase in weather anomalies and a decline in agricultural production in medium latitudes.
http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/Polar.gif
A dangerous storm front in Louisiana, Texas and Arkansas.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/ruston-la/71270/weather-radar/333433
One bad season and a few unobserved sunspots is not enough to predict global famine from.
Little Ice Ages happen, run away warming doesn’t.
That said, yes the doom of cold projection is high in unintended irony.
That point seems to be missed by most. Enjoy summer while you can.
I have lived in Ohio since 1960, and have seen not had any significant cold patterns which lasted more than 3 years (1976-1979), no long term droughts, or extreme wet periods of more than a few months. Other than a modest winter warming and some increasing rain since the 60’s I have not seen any thing that I would call climate change.
This is just nonsense. Just imagine if somebody implied that because summer in Australia was 2 degrees warmer than average that global warming was imminent and certain to cause cannibalism and the death of 10
percent of the world’s population. Everybody here would rightly poke fun at such a claim. And everyone should be doing the same for the claims about imminent global winter.
Agree.
err yup BUT those sort of idiot claims over a small rise in ayr temp ARE getting the crazy claims..
meanwhile if it does go colder for a while we have no plan B at all
The flooding is NOT anything to do with any little ice age – this is climate change affecting the US.
See also extreme rain across UK and France, coming heatwave in Europe, Mozambique, Queensland, etc, etc
It would be climate change, if the flooding was increasing. According to the NCA in both 2014 and 2017, it is not. According to the IPCC AR5, there are no trends in global flooding.
This guy Griff never responds to being debunked non stop. So no point really in replying.
Flooding is at least 50% due to human causes. Poor planning, living in areas one KNOWS flood, etc. However, since the human climate has changed and human intelligence seems to be on the wain, “climate change” could be correct. It’s just not the atmosphere and weather we are referring to there Griff.
Griffy has its beliefs. Don’t confuse it with facts.
Ironically, flood control also results in more flooding. Forcing the water to stay in the main channel by the use of levies reduces the total amount of water that can flow in a river resulting in water backing up.
There’s also land use changes that result in water running off more quickly.
David Brin noted this years ago with an article in Contrary Brin “The River Will Win”. He said the riverbed would rise relative to surrounding land and that the delta would die ( Mississippi River ) because dredging the ship’s channel for decades would increase flow to the point where silt which would have built up would be carried out deep into the Gulf of Mexico instead.
Land use changes are really dramatic in the Amazon. where clearcutting forests has left mud flats. Those are a lot drier without trees to retain moisture.
Recall your prediction a couple of years back about the Arctic being ice free? Your prediction failed (As well as Tony McLeod’s). You now predict heatwaves for Queesnland? Should be an interesting summer.
heatwave qld? what are you sniffing?
Yep, Heat wave…It’ll be 19 in Brisbane instead of 17 (though the June Average is 21)
Yeah, yeah, we know: flooding and cool weather = “climate change”, while drought and warm weather = “global warming”. Amazing what little ol’ CO2 can do, eh?
Ah yes, the everything is caused by CO2 troll cometh.
griff, “climate change” is imaginary. It’s changeable weather.
Nothing extreme about the rain in the UK.
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2019/06/17/unprecedented-rainfall-in-lincolnshire/
The flooding seen, had the same causes at that seen in the Somerset area, in 2016, lack of dredging of rivers.
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2016/01/13/somerset-floods-rainfall-was-not-unprecedented-so-why-did-the-levels-flood/
griff
there are hundreds of records of flooding and hundreds of records about heat waves that we can trace back thousands of years. In the UK we have excellent records that continually reference these extremes.
why do you believe them to be unique and caused by man?
tonyb
Griff, you’ve been deluded by Magical Thinking and indoctrination into today’s Junk Climate Science.
The basic problem with your rationalization of climate change today is you have zero knowledge of history. Everything today apparently is due to CC, but what about all those floods in the 1920’s, 1950’s.
Nothing happening today even comes close to the Great Mississippi flood of 1927. Was that climate change at 295 ppm CO2????
Believing that natural cycles and natural climate (and weather!!!) variation ended after CO2 rose above 300 ppm and everything today in due to Climate Change is simply Magical Thinking.
The reality is any anthropogenic signal of CO2-driven climate change has not risen above the natural noise of climate and weather variability.
That is fact.
One of the great things about the Climate Cult, is that the worst the unwashed youth of today have to worry about is a few degrees of nicer weather, whereas if the press had got hold of what the global cooling doomongers are saying here, they’d all be dirtying their nappies (diapers)
“The Modern Warm Period ended in 2006. Current solar activity is back to levels of the Little Ice Age. To paraphrase Santayana, those who don’t remember history are condemned to being surprised and unprepared when it repeats itself.”
That brings to mind an earlier Archibald prediction, made just after 2006, in a submission to the Australian Senate:
“2008 is the tenth anniversary of the recent peak on global temperature in 1998. The world has been cooling at 0.06 degrees per annum since then. My prediction is that this rate of cooling will accelerate to 0.2 degrees per annum following the month of solar minimum sometime in 2009.”
Also pretty dramatic. That would have us down by more than 2°C since 2008. Instead, of course, it has just gone on warming.
Are you sure?
What does the average global SST on one day, June 22, 2019, have to do with Archibald’s prediction? Anyway, at anomaly 0.2°C, it certainly doesn’t indicate a 2°C drop.
Interesting that he does not want to warm up in the tropics.
Nick is listening to the surface temp homogenizers as the fields lie unplanted.
He also knows that in five years time, today’s temperatures will probably have been significantly adjusted, such that everybody gets to be right, or wrong, depending on the whim of the adjustment-masters general.
It stopped being proper science a long time ago and is now little better than computerized witch craft.
Since there are no reliable data but only questionable proxies for exceptional
catastrophic warming or disastrous cooling during last millennium, only logical conclusion that can be made is that present climate is nothing more or less than normal
David Archibald’s predictions have not been of normality. He is from the “Coming Little Ice Age” doomster cult.
Wow, such emotionalism. Must be an anti-sun “cult” thing.
The burden of proof is placed on those that predict that things are going to change dramatically.
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and the evidence is lacking, both for alarming warming or alarming cooling.
People like David Archibald damage the cause by pushing foolish predictions that get publicized and then fail spectacularly.
Fun with statistics. It never ends.
Welcome to summer in Summit County, CO
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1142421292269887488
A mini cold period, 2020 to 2050?
http://www.thegwpf.org/professor-valentina-zharkhova-the-solar-magnetic-field-and-the-terrestrial-climate/
John Doran.
Ilya Usoskin did proved Zharkova’s model wrong:
Usoskin, I.G., 2018. Comment on the paper by Popova et al.“On a role of quadruple component of magnetic field in defining solar activity in grand cycles”. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 176, pp.69-71.
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05203
Javier
How does Usoskin’s work square with the paper just released by NASA’S Ames Research Center – authored by one Irina Kitiashvili?
One would think that the observable evidence of increased noctilucent clouds, upper atmospheric temperature drops, reduced sunspots, elevated radiation reading in commercial airlines, extended winter seasons would all buttress Zharkova’s work.
Apparently, from all the sites I am following (Stephanie Osborne’s is especially informative to a non wonk such as myself … ‘accordingtohoytdotcom’), the evidence of this Grand Solar Minimum is irrefutable.
There were 54 predictions for SC24 and the great majority were wrong, and many of them by a wide margin:
Pesnell, W.D., 2008. Predictions of solar cycle 24. Solar Physics, 252(1), pp.209-220.
https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11207-008-9252-2.pdf
How many of the few that were not too off were so for the wrong reasons? SC25 will surely make some winners from SC24 into losers.
Kitiashvili’s method predicts a lower SC25 than SC24 and is based on data assimilation:
Kitiashvili, I.N., 2016. Data assimilation approach for forecast of solar activity cycles. The Astrophysical Journal, 831(1), p.15.
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-637X/831/1/15/meta
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jP9_4uoEdKg
But it has a problem, that is essentially the same problem Zharkova has. The data she is assimilating belongs to solar cycles 21 to 24 and therefore is data that goes only in the direction of decreasing solar activity. That skews the result towards continuing the trend.
Solar activity is cyclical and when taking into account the periodicities it presents the result is that it has already reached its minimum activity for this centennial low. And the incontrovertible evidence is that the SC23-24 minimum had less activity than the SC24-25 minimum is having.
I’ve been saying since 2016 that what I see in my analysis of past activity is increasing solar activity for the next cycles, not decreasing. My solar model does a fair job of reproducing past solar activity even if it doesn’t always nail maximum activity.
It shows solar activity peaking towards the end of the 21st century before initiating a long descent of several centuries with the next grand minimum at least three centuries away.
For SC25 it agrees with what Leif has been saying from looking at the polar fields. It should be between SC24 and SC20.
If you find yourself following sites that say the same you must consider the possibility that it is not because they are correct, but because you show a bias in your selection.
We should see large icebergs in the North Atlantic and great sea floods in northern Europe before we reach 1300 AD conditions.
If the North Atlantic Oscillation remains in negative mode for a couple of decades, similar to the 1950s and 60s, then we could expect to see ice floes on the Thames and sea freezing off the Kent coast.
There was a lot Icelandic volcanic activity during the early 14th. century.
Two major eruptions took place in the Katla volcano . 1311 and 1357. Also the Hecla volcano erupted in 1300-1 .
Both these produced large quantities of ash which covered a lot of Europe and resulted in famine and destitution. I doubt that the scientists have included in variable in their manipulated statistics.
I believe Katla is a bit overdue for the next eruption. More concern to me than wretched Climate change.
Perhaps Greta Lomberg should be told about that, so the Greens can convert the problem into a tax regime.?
What does the average global SST on June 22, 2019, have to do with Archibald’s prediction? At anomaly 0.2°C, it certainly doesn’t indicate a 2°C drop.
Climate alarmism of the worst kind. Extrapolating from regional to global weather is absurd. We live in a global economy so bad crops in one place are compensated by imports from others.
Even the 1315-17 famine was regional. Spain, Portugal, great part of Italy, Byzantium, and the Southern Mediterranean were not affected. To compare what happened them, when the capacity to transport food was very limited, to now is absurd.
And let’s remember that David Archibald has been consistently wrong in his climate predictions since 2007 when he published:
Archibald, D.C., 2007. Climate outlook to 2030. Energy & Environment, 18(5), pp.615-620.
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1260/0958-305X.18.5.615
“increased certainty that that there will be a global average temperature decline in the range of 1° to 2°C for the forecast period.”
Instead the global average temperature has increased since 2007.
And in 2013 he predicted that the current solar minimum wouldn’t come until 2026:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/03/05/how-long-to-the-2425-solar-minimum/
“On this line of evidence, Solar Cycle 24 will be 17 years long and the longest solar cycle for 300 years. We have a long wait ahead of us – half a generation.”
Believe anything he says at your own peril. Instead of discrediting the global warming alarmism he is discrediting the skeptics.
Gracias.
Thanks for this precise answer. We certainly disagree about different things, but here we don’t.
A look at the top 20 of the sorted GHCN daily anomalies for CONUS wrt 1981-2010 from Jan 1900 till May 2019:
1936 2 -4.47
1977 1 -4.04
1978 2 -3.98
1905 2 -3.90
1979 1 -3.89
1940 1 -3.66
1918 1 -3.41
1929 2 -3.31
1979 2 -3.28
1989 12 -3.27
1969 3 -3.26
1930 1 -3.17
1915 3 -3.15
1983 12 -3.10
1909 12 -3.07
1960 3 -3.05
1978 1 -2.88
1912 3 -2.80
1914 12 -2.74
1963 12 -2.72
The first 2018/19 anomaly appears at position 138, and no, it is not a 2019 month:
2018 11 -1.26
The unsorted time series ends with
2018 12 1.11
2019 1 0.08
2019 2 -0.70
2019 3 -1.03
2019 4 0.42
2019 5 -0.27
*
Warmistas aren’t smart, but Coolistas are even less.
Much too early to warn about 1315 and after, IMO. 5-10 more years of the same conditions, the we’re talking. But not of disaster, humans are more than able to cope with a cooler climate.
humans maybe but food crops we like and animals dont do as well in cold, energy expended to keep warm reduces meat/milk though its ok for fleece production up to a point cold and wet isnt good for fine wool production either and footrot and other issues are a bugger to cope with
May have to encourage more planting in Mexico and southward to help us get over this spell of wet weather. Give those migrants something to do.