Michael Bastasch | Energy Editor
- TIME magazine’s cover shows U.N. chief António Guterres standing in waters off a Pacific island that’s allegedly “sinking” into the sea — except scientific studies indicate it’s not.
- Studies have found most low-lying Pacific islands either remained stable or increased in size over the decades, including Tuvalu.
- One researcher noted that the “loss of land is unlikely to be a factor in forcing depopulation of Tuvalu.”
The newest TIME magazine cover features United Nations chief António Guterres standing in water off the island nation of Tuvalu, which the outlet called “one of the world’s most vulnerable countries” to global warming.
The photo, taken during Guterres’ four-country tour of Pacific nations in May, is meant to illustrate one point — that island nations are sinking in the face of global warming-induced sea-level rise.
TIME titled it’s Thursday cover story, “Our Sinking Planet.” There’s just one problem: Scientific studies show Tavalu’s islands, indeed most Pacific islands, have actually grown in the face of sea level rise.
A 2018 study found that Tuvalu’s total land area grew nearly 3 percent from 1971 to 2014, despite rising sea levels. Satellite and aerial photos showed eight of Tuvalu’s nine atolls and three-quarters of its reef islands increased in size over the last four decades.
Study lead author Paul Kench told AFP, “the dominant mode of change over that time on Tuvalu has been expansion, not erosion.” Kench made similar findings in a 2010 study. (RELATED: ‘Climate Change’ Isn’t Alarming Enough For The Liberal Media. Here’s What They Now Call It)
“On the basis of this research we project a markedly different trajectory for Tuvalu’s islands over the next century than is commonly envisaged,” Kench said. “While we recognise that habitability rests on a number of factors, loss of land is unlikely to be a factor in forcing depopulation of Tuvalu.”
Another 2018 study found that nearly 90 percent of low-lying islands in the Pacific and Indian oceans either remained stable or increased in size over the decades.
Virginie K. E. Duvat of the University of La Rochelle compiled past work by Kench and other researchers studying islands and sea level rise. Based on that data, Duvat found measurements showed the overall land area of Tuvalu’s islands was stable.
This “indicates that they may not be affected yet by the presumably negative, that is, erosive, impact of sea-level rise,” Duvat wrote.
Much of TIME’s cover story focuses on the now abandoned village of Vunidogoloa, which was abandoned five years ago. Fijian officials say the village and its inhabitants were relocated to a higher elevation in the face of climate change.
Fiji plans to relocate another 40 villages because of sea level rise, TIME reported. The outlet went on to claim other island nations were also in danger, adding that sea-level rise was “threatening to wipe them off the map entirely.”
Pacific island nations met with Guterres in May to “push to make developed countries commit to aggressive new targets for reducing their emissions at a global climate summit” scheduled to take place this fall.
UN officials used Pacific islanders to make the moral case for fighting global warming during climate talks in 2015. When those talks concluded, nearly 200 countries agreed to the Paris climate accord.
“Climate change offers an opportunity for multilateralism to prove its value,” Guterres told TIME.
UN officials, including Guterres, have warned that many Pacific islanders could become “climate refugees” if no action is taken to curb global warming, though past UN predictions of waves of climate refugees have not come true.
But so far, studies on island nations shows they are more resilient to sea-level rise than previously believed.
“We tend to think of Pacific atolls as static landforms that will simply be inundated as sea levels rise, but there is growing evidence these islands are geologically dynamic and are constantly changing,” researcher Kench said in 2018.
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Considering the nature of atolls, as coral grounded around a submerged extinct volcano, only if the sea level rise exceeded the growth rate of the coral could the atoll “sink”.
What atoll are has been known since Darwin in the 1840’s, and well confirmed by drilling down to base rock in the 1940’s. The green blob is, as usual, relying on ignorance.
Grandpa wandered off into the water again. Whose job was it to watch Grandpa today?
So congressman Hank Johnson’s concerns about Pacific islands tipping over and capsizing really were unfounded? Who could have foreseen this?
Well, good ol’ Hank is a ranking member of the CIC (Congressional Idiot Caucus) an informal group that has been around since the first Congress in 1789. Their unofficial motto is “Those who can, do… those who can’t teach… and those too stupid to teach run for Congress.” Membership in this venerable group has waxed and waned over the 230 years since it was founded but has very recently gained many new members. Of particular note, in the last election they acquired their very own bartender, an acquisition that many believe will keep the members of the CIC drunk during committee meetings, thereby raising the overall intelligence of the Congress by a small amount.
They live in their reality, I live in mine.
Mine requires observation, data, and facts. In their reality – observation, data, and facts are outlawed.
A lot of stupid people out there, including Guterres…
The last photo of this post: Tuvalu delegates in Copenhagen
. . . appears to be paid shills of 350 . org. Thus, “Tuvalu is the Real Deal” is one of Bill McKibben’s staged climate porn activities.
Bill, like Hansen and Schmidt, have been sidetracked by kids now leading the cult.
“Now, since the end of the interglacial sea level has pretty much risen constantly but not at a uniform rate.”
Not true: it has risen since the end of the last GLACIAL, due to melting land ice. The present interglacial has not ended; we are in it now.
Small island nations have long ago found the Climate Hystery to be a great source of blackmail money. It’s your fault that we are sinking – big industrialized nations so pay us. Quite a compelling line – don’t you think. Also, if there is free money to be had, you are very likely to go along with any statement that gives you better odds of actually laying hands on it. Now we see those islands are not getting smaller – they actually grow in surface area. Has this happened while they were not looking? Or did they just chime into a big, fat lie for the greenbucks? Looks like its the second one. What are we supposed to do about this now? The least we can do is stop the cash and make it abundantly clear that there won’t be any more. As fir Gutteres – there should be criminal prosecutions.
One wonders if, “Guterres’ four-country tour of Pacific nations in May,” included those little drinks featuring parasols and self-exposure tests of tropical irradiance alone or augmented by sand reflectance, and/or moderated by nearby small bodies of marble-and-tile-enclosed chlorinated water.
Possibility of his attention to other sorts of nearby bodies recognized but unelaborated.
We got unlucky really, if the gods were on our side it would have sunk while he was there.
Its funny how both Gutterres and Time could be so clueless and uninformed to specifically pick Tuvalu of all places to try and make the climate emergency! rising oceans! panic now! point.
Its a pretty well known fact that Tuvalus land area has increased https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pacific/101319846/pacific-nation-tuvalu-has-grown-by-73-hectares-over-40-years
An Australian parliament member dared mentioned in recently and was greeted with shrieks of ourage and fact checking for going off narrative https://jennifermarohasy.com/2018/12/seasons-greetings-tuvalu-and-thank-you-mr-kelly/
Sadly for the narrative fans , it was found to be true . Tuvalu is getting larger rather than sinking.
Hi. I am Portuguese and I live in Portugal.
In 1995 Guterres was the Portuguese prime minister and with him the political and economic situation became deteriorated such that he resigned declaring the matter was becoming a swamp.
The men is used to swamps and can’t live without them.
“Draining The Swamp” has become another hypocritical slogan for the shameless fascist-tool sellouts pretending to represent the victimized masses here in America but it has had a valid resurgence recently because of Trump attacking the lobbying & consulting parasites who enable legalized bribery that keeps corporatist incumbents (from both sides of the rotten aisle) in power. Here is a brief summary of his ethics plan that Trump called for:
• A constitutional amendment imposing term limits on members of Congress
• A ban on federal employees lobbying the government for five years
• A ban on members of Congress lobbying for five years
• Tighter rules about what constitutes a lobbyist, instead of letting people call themselves consultants
• Campaign finance reform limiting what foreign companies can raise for American political candidates
• A ban on senior government officials lobbying for foreign governments
Liberals, moderates and conservatives in America should be united in all these measures but there will be no significant progress made in getting these token gestures passed by an utterly corrupt Congress or legally removing the big money bandits out of government until We The People take our rigged elections back from our Fascist Rulers; unfortunately, over here the materialistic puppets love our Swamp Things more than a real democracy.