The Week That Was: 2019-06-01 (June 6, 2019)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “The latent causes of faction are thus sown in the nature of man.” —James Madison (1787)
Number of the Week: 40 zettabytes
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Factions: The author of the above quotation, James Madison, is considered to be the principal author of the Constitution; along with Alexander Hamilton and John Jay, an author of the Federalist Papers urging the several states the adoption of the Constitution to replace the Articles of Confederation; and an important contributor to George Washington’s Farewell Address to the nation in 1796. Washington’s Farewell address was written and circulated throughout the nation, to be read to those who could not read. It came eight years after the Constitution was ratified in 1788, with the new stronger Federal government beginning on March 4, 1789.
In 1789 the French revolution began, resulting a violent period with many factions, subsequently the “Reign of Terror” and a dictatorship. Many Americans began questioning whether self-government along the principles of Enlightenment ideals could survive. Washington’s Farewell Address emphasizes the importance of union and the Constitution to protect liberty for all.
It warned against powerful factions as well as government too weak to protect its citizens.
“…that for the efficient management of your common interests, in a country so extensive as ours, a government of as much vigor as is consistent with the perfect security of liberty is indispensable. Liberty itself will find in such a government, with powers properly distributed and adjusted, its surest guardian. It is, indeed, little else than a name, where the government is too feeble to withstand the enterprises of faction, to confine each member of the society within the limits prescribed by the laws, and to maintain all in the secure and tranquil enjoyment of the rights of person and property.
“I have already intimated to you the danger of parties in the State, with particular reference to the founding of them on geographical discriminations. Let me now take a more comprehensive view, and warn you in the most solemn manner against the baneful effects of the spirit of party generally.
“This spirit, unfortunately, is inseparable from our nature, having its root in the strongest passions of the human mind. It exists under different shapes in all governments, more or less stifled, controlled, or repressed; but, in those of the popular form, it is seen in its greatest rankness, and is truly their worst enemy.”
Today, as in the past, many entities, factions, spirit of party, have made claims that science favors their programs and policies. This was common in the 1920s with Eugenics, or before that with Karl Mark and his followers claiming his economic system was “scientific socialism.” In the US some government entities, scientific organizations and political groups are claiming the Trump administration is anti-science. As a headline in the New York Times stated: “Trump Administration Hardens Its Attack on Climate Science.”
Writing for the Global Warming Policy Forum, Andrew Montford, author of “The Hockey stick Illusion” demolishes claims of Trump’s attack on science. James Reilly, Director of the US Geological Survey, ordered that computer runs of climate models stop with the year 2040. Montford cites the work by John Christy discussed in last week’s TWTW showing that longer runs are of little value. The models fail to describe what has been occurring in the atmosphere over the past 40 years.
Please note, that Christy mentioned that the dataset his organization compiled is 40 years old and it does not necessarily include all, natural variability. TWTW suggested that it does not include a general cooling such as the Little Ice Age, or major ice ages. Further, although Christy’s statistical methods eliminated volcanic activity and El Niño activity, they did not eliminate changes in solar activity. TWTW asserts that climate models are misleading today, and there is no logical reason to assume longer runs will not be misleading.
Montford also brings up the paper by Judith Curry “Climate Models for the Layman” published in 2017 by the Global Warming Policy Foundation. In addition to the quotation by Montford, Curry summarizes the global climate models (GCMs) by stating:
“GCMs are important tools for understanding the climate system. However, there are
broad concerns about their reliability:
· “GCM predictions of the impact of increasing carbon dioxide on climate cannot be rigorously evaluated on timescales of the order of a century.
· “There has been insufficient exploration of GCM uncertainties.
· “There are an extremely large number of unconstrained choices in terms of selecting model parameters and parameterisations.
· “There has been a lack of formal model verification and validation, which is the norm for engineering and regulatory science.
· “GCMs are evaluated against the same observations used for model tuning.
· “There are concerns about a fundamental lack of predictability in a complex nonlinear system.
The IPCC First Assessment Report (AR) was published in 1990. In over 25 years they have not bothered to verify and validate their models. It is not a scientific organization, but a political faction attempting to extract money from the American public and the EU. [Also, verification and validation are a major problem with US EPA models.]
It may be unfortunate that it takes a real estate promoter with an abrasive public personality to point out that what passes for science from the IPCC is really an illusion, “smoke and mirrors.” But Trump seems to be the first leader of a major nation who willingly rejected the IPCC’s false claim of scientific credibility. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Change in US Administrations and http://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/washing.asp
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Environmentalism Indicted. Tim Ball, who studied under climate change pioneer H.H. Lamb, produced a severe indictment against environmentalism, claiming the purpose has been to achieve world government. Certainly, world-wide regulations seem to be the goal of the leaders of many environmental organizations. However, individuals in the organizations may be misinformed.
For example, many individuals were disturbed by the broad use of the persistent chemical DDT. But it is doubtful that many of these individuals realized that their anti-DDT stance would lead to the preventable deaths of millions of people in tropical countries. The failure to inform the public is a failure of both government and the factions, special interest groups, that prompted the policy of banning DDT. [One of the worries was that mosquitos (and other insects) might develop an immunity against DDT, much as some bacteria have against some antibiotics. But the most cost-effective malaria control was periodic indoor spraying: thus, the total ban was nonsense.]
One can argue that these factions do not have the duty to inform the public of adverse human health effects the policies they advocate may have. The same can be said for the consequences of banning fossil fuels, when few reliable alternatives are available, except under special circumstances such as free flowing rivers. The problem is difficult with no ready solution. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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The Greenhouse Effect: The discussion of the Greenhouse Effect – Atmospheric Layers in last week’s TWTW has several omissions that are important for general understanding. The discussion of the troposphere and the drop in temperatures as elevation increased (lapse rate) assumed a cloudless sky. When clouds are included, many generalizations fail. This is one reason why there is no generalized theory of the greenhouse effect.
Further, clouds interfere with the cooling of the earth. And, as previously mentioned by Roy Spencer, clouds interfere with the ability to measure the infrared radiation, which cools the earth. The interference with measurement ability is one reason why microwave measurements are preferred to infrared measurements for estimating temperature trends. Another reason is that the dataset for microwave measurements is over 40 years long, while the one for infrared measurements is 16 years long.
Since water freezes out by the tropopause, and the density of the air in the stratosphere (fewer molecules per unit volume) is far less than in the troposphere, there is much less convection in the stratosphere than in the troposphere. Last week’s TWTW gave the impression there was little or none, which is not correct.
Greenhouse gases absorb and re-emit infrared radiation in specific wavelengths (absorption bands). [Note: The band is (say) 12 to 18 microns; the bandwidth is 6 microns.] For example, carbon dioxide has three main bandwidths of infrared absorption – 1.8 to 2 microns; 4 to 5 microns; and 12 to 18 microns, this last being the one that can block IR emanating from the surface. If 99% + of the infrared energy for a particular band width is interfered with by existing greenhouse gases, then the band is said to be “saturated,” and the energy is released at the top of the atmosphere, where there are no molecules of greenhouse gas to interfere with it.
Using computer simulations from HITRAN (high-resolution transmission molecular absorption database), developed at the Atomic and Molecular Physics Division, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics under the direction of Dr. Iouli E. Gordon, the next TWTW (dated June 15) will begin to discuss how existing carbon dioxide and existing water vapor in the atmosphere reduce the ability of additional carbon dioxide to interfere with outgoing infrared radiation because the absorption bands are already saturated. As one scientist stated: “the glass is already on this greenhouse – another layer has little to do.”
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Antarctic Warming: Previously, TWTW discussed a report by the World Meteorological Organization, a parent organization of the IPCC, which had a map showing a surface warming of the Antarctic where there are no thermometers and where satellite data shows a cooling. Now, NASA’s Goddard Institute on Space Studies (NASA-GISS) has done the same. The “visualization of NASA’s global temperature record” shows warming where there are no thermometers. The report stated:
“A new assessment of NASA’s record of global temperatures revealed that the agency’s estimate of Earth’s long-term temperature rise in recent decades is accurate to within less than a tenth of a degree Fahrenheit, providing confidence that past and future research is correctly capturing rising surface temperatures.
“The most complete assessment ever of statistical uncertainty within the GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP) data product shows that the annual values are likely accurate to within 0.09 degrees Fahrenheit (0.05 degrees Celsius) in recent decades, and 0.27 degrees Fahrenheit (0.15 degrees C) at the beginning of the nearly 140-year record.”
The 40-year satellite temperature trend for the lower troposphere shows a warming for a part of Antarctica from roughly 0º to 140 º East, but a cooling elsewhere. As posted by P. Gosselin, data from ten (changed to eleven) coastal stations show either no change or a cooling. These records have various beginning times, the latest 1993, some as early as 1950. Although one station is on the eastern side of the Antarctic Peninsula, as stated, none of the stations are in the West Antarctic region exhibiting geothermal activity.
There was no explanation for the source of NASA-GISS numbers. As Roy Spencer has stated, it could not be infrared radiation measurements, because the instruments cannot measure through clouds and ice, the general conditions in Antarctica. See links under Measurement Issues – Surface and Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice.
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A Stubborn Man: In the 1970s it became fashionable in Washington to believe that the US would soon run out of oil and natural gas. After all, the government had state-of-the-art mathematical models “proving” the US would. Some knowledgeable people realized there were enormous resources in the Gulf of Mexico and probably in the extensive flat shale formations created by the vast inland sea that, at various times, stretched from the Gulf to the Beaufort Sea, east of the Rockies, called source rock. The problem was no one know how to extract the oil and gas.
Although many questioned his sanity, one stubborn man, George Mitchell kept trying until he hit on a combination that would keep the fractured shale open for natural gas to come out. Fracturing had been used for years, but keeping fracture propped open was the key. As they say, the rest is history.
There is no generally acceptable way to predict, or assign probabilities, to such technology breakthroughs. Perhaps one day someone will develop a battery able to store electricity on a commercial scale at a reasonable cost. But until that technology is proven, there is no reason to expect that wind and solar will be reliable sources of affordable electricity. For a review of George Mitchell’s work see a link under Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
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No TWTW Next Week: Due to a trip to Finland, there will be no TWTW next week. TWTW will resume on June 15.
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SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD
THE JACKSON
SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving, following these criteria:
· The nominee has advanced, or proposes to advance, significant expansion of governmental power, regulation, or control over the public or significant sections of the general economy.
· The nominee does so by declaring such measures are necessary to protect public health, welfare, or the environment.
· The nominee declares that physical science supports such measures.
· The physical science supporting the measures is flimsy at best, and possibly non-existent.
The seven past recipients, Lisa Jackson, Barrack Obama, John Kerry, Ernest Moniz, John Holdren, Gena McCarthy and Jerry Brown are not eligible. Generally, the committee that makes the selection prefers a candidate with a national or international presence. The voting will close on June 30. Please send your nominee and a brief reason why the person is qualified for the honor to Ken@SEPP.org. Thank you.
Number of the Week: 40 zettabytes. Energy expert Donn Dears writes that “the world creates some 40 zettabytes of useable data each year, and CISCO predicts this rate will double in three years. (Cisco’s Global Cloud Index: Forecast and Methodology, 2016–2021).”
Does it have to get to yottabytes before politicians recognize that mandating wind and solar will cause a problem? There is no commercially available, affordable storage other than pumped storage. However efforts demonstrate that pumped storage does not work well with unreliable wind and solar because the downtimes for wind and solar may be weeks or months. See link under Energy Issues – Non-US.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
Supernova caused lightning, which caused fires, which (maybe) caused humans to stand upright
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, May 30, 2019
Link to paper: From Cosmic Explosions to Terrestrial Fires?
By Adrian Melott and Brian Thomas, The Journal of Geology, May 28, 2019
https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/703418
Censorship
Sunrise Movement Blocks Reporter From Covering Climate Change Rally
By Michael Sandoval, Western Wire, May 14, 2019
http://westernwire.net/sunrise-movement-blocks-reporter-from-covering-climate-change-rally/
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-II/CCR-II-Full.pdf
Summary: http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2a/pdf/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
An “Attack on Climate Science”? It’s Nothing of the Sort
By Andrew Montford, GWPF, May 28, 2019
https://www.thegwpf.com/attack/
Link to paper: Climate Models for the layman
Bly Judith Curry, GWPF, 2017
https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2017/02/Curry-2017.pdf
Environmentalism: Evidence Suggests it Was Always and Only About Achieving World Government
Guest Opinion: Tim Ball, WUWT, May 27, 2019
Science’s Untold Scandal: The Lockstep March of Professional Societies to Promote the Climate Change Scare
By Tom Harris and Jay Lehr, PJ Media, May 24, 2019 [H/t Allan MacRae]
How Climate Nonsense Gets Published
By Andrew Montford, GWPF, May 29, 2019
https://www.thegwpf.com/how-climate-nonsense-gets-published/
Gregory Wrightstone: exposing the mass extinction lie
By Larry Kummer, Editor Fabius Maximus, May 24, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
https://fabiusmaximus.com/2019/05/24/gregory-wrightstone-exposing-the-mass-extinction-lie/
Defending the Orthodoxy
What failure to reverse climate change could mean
By Nathaniel Rich, Daily Maverick, May 27, 2019
“By 1979, we knew nearly everything we understand today about climate change ― including how to stop it, according to the book, Losing Earth.”
“Robert Watson, a former chairman of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, has argued that a 3-degree warming is the realistic minimum. Four degrees: Europe in permanent drought; vast areas of China, India, and Bangladesh claimed by desert; Polynesia swallowed by the sea; the Colorado River thinned to a trickle. The prospect of a 5-degree warming prompts some of the world’s pre-eminent climate scientists, not an especially excitable type, to warn of the fall of human civilization.”
[SEPP Comment: The assumptions made at the 1979 conference for the Charney Report are wrong, as shown by John Christy’s work in last week’s TWTW.]
Lobbying against key US climate regulation ‘cost society $60bn’, study finds
By Josh Gabbatiss, Carbon Brief, May 27, 2019
Link to paper: The social cost of lobbying over climate policy
By Kyle C. Meng & Ashwin Rode, Nature, Climate Change, May 27, 2019
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0489-6
“The pair say their work reveals the power firms can have in curtailing government action on climate change, in the face of ‘overwhelming evidence’ that its social benefits outweigh the costs, which range from reduced farming yields to lower GDP.” [Boldface added]
[SEPP Comment: Do the editors of Nature Climate Change understand that photosynthesis is natural and causing nature to flourish with more carbon dioxide? The authors of this paper are apparently ignorant of photosynthesis.]
Al Gore Tells Harvard Students ‘Assault On Science’ Threatens Humanity’s Survival
By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, May 30, 2019
https://www.dailycaller.com/2019/05/30/al-gore-harvard-science/
Global Warming & Climate Change Myths
By John Cook, Skeptical Science, Accessed May 31, 2019 [H/t Edward Ring]
https://skepticalscience.com/argument.php
A paper: Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature
By John Cook, dana Nuccitelli, et al., Environmental Research Letters, May 15, 2013
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024/meta
[SEPP Comment: The same John Cook, the latest of the 97%-ers, whose polling techniques would have George Gallup spinning in his grave by inserting polling bias after the surveys?]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Sorry, Alarmists, Climate Chaos Is Not Here
Despite Democrats’ cataclysmal framing of every weather event, Americans are safer than ever.
By David Harsanyi, The Federalist, May 30, 2019
https://thefederalist.com/2019/05/30/sorry-alarmists-climate-chaos-not/
Where do they get these ludicrous people from?
By Andrew Montford, GWPF, May 30, 2019
https://www.thegwpf.com/where-do-they-get-these-ludicrous-people-from/
“Climate apocalypse will be here by 2030, Scots warn.”
After Paris!
New study dismisses green growth policies as a route out of ecological emergency
By Autonomous University of Barcelona, Phys.org, May 28, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
https://phys.org/news/2019-05-dismisses-green-growth-policies-route.html
Link to paper: Is Green Growth Possible?
By Jason Hickel & Giorgos Kallis, New Political Economy, Apr 17, 2019
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13563467.2019.1598964
From abstract: “But empirical evidence on resource use and carbon emissions does not support green growth theory. Examining relevant studies on historical trends and model-based projections, we find that: (1) there is no empirical evidence that absolute decoupling from resource use can be achieved on a global scale against a background of continued economic growth, and (2) absolute decoupling from carbon emissions is highly unlikely to be achieved at a rate rapid enough to prevent global warming over 1.5°C or 2°C, even under optimistic policy conditions. We conclude that green growth is likely to be a misguided objective, and that policymakers need to look toward alternative strategies.” [Boldface added.]
Statement by President Trump on the Paris Climate Accord (two-year anniversary Saturday)
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, May 30, 2019
https://www.masterresource.org/trump-donald/paris-climate-accord-2-year-anniversary/
Even Steve Bannon Thinks Trump’s Latest Climate Change Plan Is Too Extreme
When it comes to taking on climate change science, the administration is just getting started.
By Alison Durkee, Vanity Fair, May 27, 2019
“U.S. Geological Survey is changing its climate models to project the impacts of climate change only through 2040, rather than the previous modeling through the end of the century.
“Monday’s Times report reflected the latest instance of the Trump administration’s newest environmental strategy, which mandates that without scientific evidence to back their anti-environmental actions up, it’s better just to change the evidence altogether.”
[SEPP Comment: Climate models are evidence, of what? – gross incompetence by the modelers?]
Lawmaker criticizes White House over plans to influence science in national climate report
By Miranda Green, The Hill, May 29, 2019
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/446041-lawmaker-criticizes-white-house-over-plans-to
[SEPP Comment: Don’t politicize the highly politicized report?]
Scientist compares Trump’s climate stance to Soviet Union
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, May 28, 2019
“’What we have here is a pretty blatant attempt to politicize the science — to push the science in a direction that’s consistent with their politics,’ Duffy, a member of a National Academy of Sciences panel that reviewed the government’s most recent National Climate Assessment, said.”
[SEPP Comment: Great propaganda photo of black smoke billowing from chimneys. Does this member of the National Academy of Sciences believe carbon dioxide is black?]
Rare earth minerals are a powerful arrow in China’s quiver
By Joel Trachtman, The Hill, May 31, 2019
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/446194-rare-earth-minerals-are-a-powerful-arrow-in-chinas-quiver
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately below.]
China’s Threat To Restrict Exports of Rare Earth Minerals to the U.S. Is an Empty Bluff
China’s 2010 export restrictions on rare earth compounds failed then, and they would fail now
By Ronald Bailey, Reason, May 29, 2019
Problems in the Orthodoxy
EU’s filthiest states pocketing clean energy funds with no plans to phase out coal
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 27, 2019
NGOs criticise EU member states for receiving energy transition funds without plan to exit coal
By Julian Wettengel, Clean Energy Wire, May 29, 2019
New Studies Increase Confidence in NASA’s Measure of Earth’s Temperature
By Jessica Merzdorf for GSFC News
Greenbelt MD (SPX) May 27, 2019
Changing Weather
Recent Tornadoes are Due to Unusually Cold Weather
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, May 29, 2019
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/05/recent-tornadoes-are-due-to-unusually-cold-weather/
“To claim that global warming is causing more tornadoes is worse than speculative; it is directly opposite to the clear observational evidence.”
Rebutting claim: The active tornado season and spring flooding are caused by CO2 warming
By Staff Writers, ICECAP, May 31, 2019
Synopsis: A Missing Beat in Earth’s Oscillating Wind Patterns
A new model provides a possible explanation for why Earth’s equatorial winds missed their scheduled direction switch from westerly to easterly flow.
By Katherine Wright, APS, May 30, 2019
https://physics.aps.org/synopsis-for/10.1103/PhysRevLett.122.214504
Link to paper: Periodicity Disruption of a Model Quasibiennial Oscillation of Equatorial Winds
By Antoine Renaud, et al. Physical review Letters, May 30, 2019
https://journals.aps.org/prl/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevLett.122.214504
A Warning from the Dead
Guest post by David Archibald, WUWT, May 27, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/05/27/a-warning-from-the-dead/
Deadly Japan Heatwave “Due To Global Warming”
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 30, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Doubtful the temperatures of the “heat wave” would have happened during the last major Ice Age, therefore global warming must be the cause?]
More on the Washington Drought Situation
By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, May 30, 2019
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/05/more-on-washington-drought-situation.html
“Clearly, the State legislature and Governor should revisit the drought definition being used and perhaps come up with new terminology (e.g., dry condition advisory). The term “emergency” is a powerful one and should only be used in truly dire situations.”
May 31 In Climate History
By Tony Heller, The Deplorable Climate Science Blog, May 31, 2019
https://realclimatescience.com/2019/05/may-31-in-climate-history/
New study attributes thousands of puffin deaths to climate change
By Chris Mills Rodrigo, The Hill, May 29, 2019
Link to paper: Unusual mortality of Tufted puffins (Fratercula cirrhata) in the eastern Bering Sea
By Timothy Jones, et al. Plos One, May 29, 2019
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0216532
Abstracts begins: “Mass mortality events are increasing in frequency and magnitude, potentially linked with ongoing climate change. In October 2016 through January 2017, St. Paul Island, Bering Sea, Alaska, experienced a mortality event of alcids (family: Alcidae), with over 350 carcasses recovered.” Then concludes with:
“Immediately prior to this event, shifts in zooplankton community composition and in forage fish distribution and energy density were documented in the eastern Bering Sea following a period of elevated sea surface temperatures, evidence cumulatively suggestive of a bottom-up shift in seabird prey availability. We posit that shifts in prey composition and/or distribution, combined with the onset of molt, resulted in this mortality event.”
[SEPP Comment: Hasty conclusion, changes in ocean current are not evidence of climate change; see links under Changing Seas.]
Veteran Swiss Meteorologist Slams 2019 Europe “Dangerous Heatwaves” Summer Prediction By AccuWeather
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, May 28, 2019
Changing Climate
Climate change affects the genetic diversity of a species
By Charles the moderator, WUWT, May 26, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/05/26/climate-change-affects-the-genetic-diversity-of-a-species/
Changing Seas
Cycles of Rapid Climate Warming
By Jim Steele, His Blog, May 28, 2019
http://landscapesandcycles.net/cycles-of-rapid-climate-warming.html
Link to key paper: Fate of Early 2000s Arctic Warm Water Pulse
By Igor V. Polyakov, et al. AMS, May 2011
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010BAMS2921.1
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
ICESat-2 Data Usher in a New Age of Exploration
Data from NASA’s ICESat-2 mission provide incredibly accurate measurements of Earth elevation change—and much more.
By Josh Blumenfeld, EOSDIS Science Writer, Earth Data, May 29, 2019
https://earthdata.nasa.gov/icesat-2-data
NASA Releases Global Ice Data
By Shlash Gear, GWPF, May 29, 2019
https://www.thegwpf.com/nasa-releases-global-ice-data/
Link to NSIDC, ICESat-2, Accessed May 30, 2019
https://nsidc.org/data/icesat-2
Link to ICESat-2 Accessed May 30, 2019
https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/icesat-2
10 Of 10 Coastal Antarctic Stations Show Zero Warming Over Past Decades. Failed Scientists Need To Resign
By Kirye and Pierre Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, May 31, 2019
Remote Sensing Data Indicate A -2.44ºC Summer Cooling For Antarctica Sea Ice Regions During 1982-2015
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, May 27, 2019
Acidic Waters
Microbes Exhibit Survival Skills in Ethiopia’s Mars-like Wonderland
By Staff Writers, London, UK (SPX) May 28, 2019
The Dallol Geothermal Area, Northern Afar (Ethiopia)—An Exceptional Planetary Field Analog on Earth
By B. Cavalazzi, et al., Astrobiology, Mar 27, 2019
https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10.1089/ast.2018.1926
“An international team of researchers lead by Dr. Felipe Gomez from Astrobiology Center in Spain (CAB (CSIC-INTA)) has found a strain of the Nanohaloarchaeles Order bacteria embedded in samples taken from a salt chimney deposited by supersaturated water at temperatures of 89 degrees Celsius and at the extremely acidic pH of 0.25.” [Boldface added]
Lowering Standards
Project traces 500 million years of roller-coaster climate
By Paul Voosen Science mag, May 24, 2019
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/364/6442/716
[SEE Comments by Cork]
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Photographer’s claims that Inuit hunting is unsustainable are not supported
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, May 29, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
German Government Falsified Key IPCC Statement In The Translation Of “IPCC Summary Report To Policy Makers”!
The Falsification of IPCC Summary Reports by the German Government
By Prof. Dr. Horst-Joachim Lüdecke, (German text translated/edited by P Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, May 26, 2019
ABC fantasies: Climate change has started to influence our language
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, May 30, 2019
http://joannenova.com.au/2019/05/abc-fantasies-climate-change-has-started-to-influence-our-language/
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Climate change protestors Extinction Rebellion threaten holiday chaos as they vow to shut down Heathrow airport for 10 days with drones during peak of the getaway season
By Darren Boyle, Daily Mail, May 31, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
Connecticut House passes bill mandating education of human-induced climate change
By Morgan Gstalter, The Hill, May 29, 2019
[SEPP Comment; Great propaganda photo of black smoke coming from chimneys. Will the mandated education include the fact that carbon dioxide is invisible?]
Striking ‘Fridays For Future’ Pupils May Have to Repeat Year for Playing Turant [SIC]
By Staff Writers, Die Welt, Via GWPF, May 29, 2019
Greta’s very corporate children’s crusade
Behind the schoolgirl climate warrior lies a shadowy cabal of lobbyists, investors and energy companies seeking to profit from a green bonanza
By Dominic Green, Standpoint, May 30, 2019 [H/t Paul Homewood]
Questioning European Green
After EU Election Drubbing, Massive Opposition to Coal Exit in Ruling CDU Party
By Staff Writers, Die Tagesschau, Via GWPF, May 31, 2019
https://www.thegwpf.com/after-eu-elections-drubbing-massive-opposition-to-coal-exit-in-ruling-cdu/
Why Germany’s Green Party Is so Strong: A Wake-up Call
By Rainer Zitelman, Tichys Einblick, Trans. GWPF, May 27, 2019
https://www.thegwpf.com/why-germanys-green-party-is-so-strong-a-wake-up-call/
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Inherent unreliable renewables dictate GND “100% renewable electricity” mandate yields unavoidable GHG emissions
Guest essay by Larry Hamlin, WUWT, May 31, 2019
Link to study: The Green New Deal: Economics and Policy Analytics
By Benjamin Zycher, American Enterprise Institute, 2019
http://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/RPT-The-Green-New-Deal-5.5×8.5-FINAL.pdf
‘We are going to send this back’: Malaysia returning unwanted Canadian plastic
Official hopes Canadians will demand ‘better tracking and monitoring’ of recycling
By David Common, CBC News, May 28, 2019
Green Jobs
Renewable energy jobs in UK plunge by a third
Exclusive: report reveals investment in the sector has halved in recent years
By Fiona Harvey, Guardian, May 30, 2019
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/30/renewable-energy-jobs-in-uk-plunge-by-a-third
[SEPP Comment: Green jobs are not sustainable?]
Non-Green Jobs
European steel industry calls on policymakers to end steel crisis and to save hundreds of thousands of jobs
By Staff Writers, Steel Guru, European Steel Association (EUROFER), May 28, 2019
SOS: Steel Makers Blame Tory Government for Uncompetitive Energy Prices
By Staff Writers, Daily Telegraph, UK, Via GWPF, May 28, 2019
https://www.thegwpf.com/steel-makers-blame-tory-government-for-uncompetitive-energy-prices/
The Political Games Continue
Tories Face ‘Existential Risk’ after Brexit Party Surges to Crushing Victory
By Staff Writers, Daily Telegraph, May 27, 2019
https://www.thegwpf.com/tories-face-existential-risk-after-brexit-party-surges-to-crushing-victory/
Litigation Issues
NY’s Anti-Trump AG Asks Court to Deny Exxon Access to Climate Crusaders’ Emails
By Chris White, Daily Caller, May 14, 2019
https://dailycaller.com/2019/05/14/trump-new-york-lawsuits/
OPINION: BP vote pours gas on Exxon’s climate fire
On the face of it, Exxon ought to have little to worry about: The sponsors – the New York State Common Fund and the Church Commissioners for England – hold just 0.25% of its stock
By Staff Writers, Reuters, May 22, 2019
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Global Fossil Fuel Subsidies Hit $5.2 Trillion
By Nick Cunningham, Oil Price.com, May 12, 2019
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Global-Fossil-Fuel-Subsidies-Hit-52-Trillion.html
Link to report: Global Fossil Fuel Subsidies Remain Large: An Update Based on Country-Level Estimates
By David Coady, et al., IMF Working Paper, May 2, 2019
“Another approach [to social cost of carbon] is to estimate global emissions prices consistent with cost effectively meeting temperature stabilization goals; for example, a recent review suggests a global CO2 emissions price of $40- 80 per ton (in $2015) by 2020 would be consistent with the Paris goal of limiting mean projected warming to 2oC (Stern and Stiglitz, 2017).
[SEPP Comment: More economic nonsense: 1) temperature stabilization goals, as if temperatures were ever stable; and 2) more photosynthesis is not a benefit.]
Making life worse: the flaws of green mandates
By Joel Kotkin, Orange County Register, May 24, 2019
https://www.ocregister.com/2019/05/24/making-life-worse-the-flaws-of-green-mandates/
Trump lifts curbs on E15 gasoline to help farmers, angering Big Oil
By Humeyra Pamuk and Jarrett Renshaw, Reuters, May 31, 2019 [H/t Cooler Heads]
[SEPP Comment: A fuel mandate many do not want!]
Florida senators back push for federal help with red tide
By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, May 30, 2019
Bits and Bytes, and Energy Demand
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, May 28, 2019
https://ddears.com/2019/05/28/bits-and-bytes-and-energy-demand/
[SEPP Comment: A far cry from when moving from an 8-bit microprocessor to a 16-bit microprocessor was a big deal!]
Small increase in EU’s total greenhouse gas emissions in 2017 [0.7%], with transport emissions up for the fourth consecutive year
By Staff Writers, European Environment Agency, May 29, 2019
https://www.eea.europa.eu/highlights/small-increase-in-eus-total-ghg
Energy Issues – Australia
18 years of Renewable Energy Target means an expensive and unstable grid, and still 75% coal
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, June 1, 2019
[SEPP Comment: The study is not publicly available.]
Activists ‘Waging a Virtual War with Religious Zealotry’ Against Oil and Gas Industry
By Staff Writers, The Australian, Via GWPF, May 28, 2019
“’That fact helps explain why shale oil and gas have added 2,000% more to U.S. energy production over the past decade than have wind and solar combined,’ he [Mark Mills] writes.”
Energy Issues — US
What’s Fueling Our Robust Growth?
By Kathleen White, Real Clear Energy, May 24, 2019
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2019/05/24/whats_fueling_our_robust_growth_110449.html
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
George Mitchell, Hero to the World’s Poor
By Chris Wright, GWPF, May 29, 2019
https://www.thegwpf.com/george-mitchell-hero-to-the-worlds-poor/
China gets UK aid to boost fracking
By David Williamson, Express, UK, May 26, 2019
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1132198/climate-change-fracking-uk-china-aid-tories-labour
Return of King Coal?
Adani ‘ready’ after winning vital approval for Queensland mine
By Tracey Ferrier, The New Daily, May 31, 2019
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/queensland/2019/05/31/adani-coal-mine-approval-bird-queensland/
“The most important remaining stronghold for the black-throated finch is in the Galilee basin, and covers land Adani and others intend to mine [coal].”
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Decline in nuclear power threatens global climate goals, IEA says
Report warns 2/3 of capacity could be lost by 2040 as developed nations phase out old nuclear plants
By Staff Writers, Reuters, May 27, 2019
https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/nuclear-capacity-climate-goals-power-supply-iea-1.5152080
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Infrasound: A Growing Liability for Wind Power
By Sherri Lange, Master Resource, May 29, 2019
https://www.masterresource.org/wind-power-health-effects/infrasound-growing-liability-windpower/
‘Big Oil’ Now Promotes Renewable Energy – Wind & Solar Spur GROWTH In Fossil Fuel Energy Generation
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, May 30, 2019
Energy & Environmental Newsletter: May 28, 2019
By John Droz, Jr. Master Resource, May 28, 2019
Environmental Industry
Europe’s Alleged “Green Victory” In EU Elections Is Fake …Results Show It’s A Media-Created Myth, More Fake News
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, May 29, 2019
Sierra Club says it will commit resources to help 100 candidates next year
By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, May 30, 2019
Other Scientific News
How Einstein’s General Theory of Relativity Was Proven Correct a Century Ago This Week
By Salim Mansur, American Thinker, May 27, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Nothing is ever “proven correct,” it is more correct to say it passed a critical hypothesis test.]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Gleickero
By Charles the moderator, WUWT, May 30, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/05/30/gleickero/
[SEPP Comment: Peter Gleick, again?.]
ARTICLES
1. Examining the Latest False Alarm on Climate
High seas won’t displace 187 million people—and the claim isn’t even new.
By Bjorn Lomborg, WSJ, May 30, 2019
https://www.wsj.com/articles/examining-the-latest-false-alarm-on-climate-11559256615
The author of “The Skeptical Environmentalist and “Cool It” writes:
“You’ve probably seen the latest alarming headlines: Rising sea levels from climate change could flood 187 million people out of their homes. Don’t believe it. That figure is unrealistic—and it isn’t even new. It appears in a new scholarly paper, whose authors plucked it from a paper published in 2011. What the earlier paper actually found was that 187 million could be forced to move in the unlikely event that, in the next 80 years, no one does anything to adapt to dramatic rises in sea level.
“In real life, the 2011 paper explained, humans ‘adapt proactively,’ and ‘such adaptation can greatly reduce the possible impacts.’ That means ‘the problem of environmental refugees almost disappears.’ Realistic assumptions reduce the number to between 41,000 and 305,000—at most, less than 1/600th of the figure in those headlines.
“Sober findings get less attention than alarming and far-fetched speculation. The United Nations’ climate-panel scenarios all show that the world will be far richer and more resilient by the end of the century. That means we’ll be better able to tackle challenges like flooding—as much poorer societies have done for centuries. We have more know-how and technology than ever to build dikes, surge barriers and dams, expand beaches and construct dunes, make ecosystem-based barriers like mangrove buffers, improve building codes and construction techniques, and use land planning and hazard mapping to minimize flooding.
[After a brief discussion on how climate scientists help journalists looking for alarm Lomborg then continues:]
“The authors acknowledge this wouldn’t happen: ‘It is clear that all coastal nations have, and will continue to adapt by varying degrees to sea level rise.’ In the second scenario, they try to account for adaptation, though they assume that as soon as any nation gets as rich as Romania is today, it will freeze its efforts. Even with this odd assumption, estimated flooding costs still fall 88%. The press release announcing the study skipped the second scenario and trumpeted the $14 trillion figure. So did every news story.
“Today, some three million people are flooded annually, costing around $11 billion in flood damages and $13 billion in dike costs, a total of 0.05% of global gross domestic product. In an updated version of that influential 2011 paper, the authors examined what would happen in a more realistic world where people adapt more as they get richer. They found that even in the hottest world, spending an additional 0.003% of GDP on protection would reduce the number of displacements from flooding by two-thirds, while the total cost would fall from 0.05% to 0.008% of global GDP.
“Climate change is real and needs to be addressed, but when we are asked to spend trillions of dollars on policies that would transform the global economy, we need to demand more than hype and spin.”
********************
2. A Flood of Regulations Threatens to Leave California Dry
Dianne Feinstein has spent 20 years trying to stop a groundwater bank in the Mojave Desert.
By Allysia Finley, WSJ, May 31, 2019
SUMMARY: In presenting an interesting method of “banking” periods of heavy rain for periods of drought in California the member of the Journal editorial board begins with a Constitutional appeal for due process and equal protection under the laws, then continues:
“For nearly two decades, Sen. Dianne Feinstein and a rear guard of environmentalists have been trying to block the Los Angeles-based company Cadiz from developing a groundwater basin in the Mojave Desert. In 1998 Cadiz began plans for a groundwater bank on 50 square miles of private land in the Mojave overlying two huge watersheds that have accumulated tens of millions of acre-feet of water over the centuries and could sustain the state’s 39 million residents for years.
“Cadiz wants to store runoff from the Colorado River and mountain streams during wet years like the last one and transport some of the groundwater each year—about 50,000 acre-feet—to urban areas. A groundwater bank is akin to a savings account in which owners save earnings in times of plenty to draw down in lean years. Storing water underground reduces evaporation and environmental impacts, which is why green groups like the Natural Resources Defense Council have long preferred groundwater banks to reservoirs.
“The U.S. Interior Department approved Cadiz’s plan in 2002, but this was only the start of a tortuous regulatory review that seems to have no end. Mrs. Feinstein has lobbied regulators at all levels to intervene, claiming the Cadiz project would harm the Mojave’s rich wildlife, including the bighorn sheep and desert tortoise.
“To assuage environmental objections, Cadiz scaled back its proposed water exports by two thirds and negotiated to use Arizona & California Railroad’s right of way to build a 43-mile underground pipeline connecting to Southern California’s water supply. In 2012 the Santa Margarita Water District approved a final environmental impact report under the California Environmental Quality Act, concluding that the project’s only significant effects would be temporary dust from construction and population growth made possible by an expanded water supply. San Bernardino County also signed off on a plan to ensure Cadiz’s operations would not threaten the aquifer’s water quality or desert wildlife.
“Not surprisingly, Cadiz then got smacked with half a dozen lawsuits under California’s environmental law. Nearly all infrastructure projects in California must endure a barrage of litigation before moving forward.
“Meanwhile, Mrs. Feinstein pressed the Obama administration to intervene. In 2011 the Interior Department revised its longstanding policy that allowed railroad rights of way to be used for power, telephone and other utility connections. Interior limited the Arizona & California Railroad’s right of way “to activities that derive from or further a railroad purpose,” thus ostensibly prohibiting Cadiz’s water pipeline. So Cadiz retrofitted its proposed pipeline with a maintenance access road and an automated fire-suppression system to benefit the railroad. Interior bureaucrats quibbled with each of Cadiz’s enhancements and halted the project in 2015.
“Cadiz received a reprieve a year later when a California court of appeals rejected all of the environmental legal challenges. Then, under the Trump administration, Interior gave Cadiz the regulatory right of way to proceed.
“Mrs. Feinstein again lobbied state regulators and lawmakers to intervene. Democratic legislators in coordination with the State Lands Commission, the National Parks Conservation Association and Mrs. Feinstein’s office have crafted legislation that would require a redo of Cadiz’s California Environmental Quality Act review. The second review would be performed by the State Lands Commission, which is comprised of the lieutenant governor, controller and finance director—all Democrats.
“Environmentalists claim a do-over is necessary because new evidence suggests that Bonanza Spring, from which bighorn sheep sometimes drink, might be connected to the aquifer under Cadiz’s groundwater pumping site. A peer-reviewed study that included a former director of the U.S. Geological Survey dismissed these concerns. Ten groundwater experts who examined Bonanza Springs and the Cadiz project area also concluded that a hydrological connection was ‘impossible.’ The groundwater management plan and environmental impact statement require continuous monitoring of the aquifer.
“While the bill does not target Cadiz by name, it prohibits a ‘transferor of water from using a water conveyance facility that has unused capacity to transfer water from a groundwater basin underlying desert lands,’ which are defined by Cadiz’s precise geographic coordinates. As a legislative analysis notes pithily, ‘It’s All About Cadiz.’
“Legislation failed to pass in the past two years due to opposition from Democrat moderates. But Democrats increased their majorities in November and now hold three-quarters of the state Assembly and Senate. The legislation can now pass without votes from Democratic legislators in competitive districts.
“Mrs. Feinstein and her allies are trying to sneak the bill through in the next two weeks while the business community is focused on stopping new taxes in the state budget. Last week the legislation squeaked through the state Senate with six Democrats abstaining and one voting no. It must still pass the Assembly and be signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom, who hasn’t taken a position.
“This regulatory double jeopardy should alarm all Californians. While Cadiz may be the current target, Democrats are setting a precedent that they can compel any business that survives the state’s regulatory gauntlet to run it again. Creating an additional layer of uncertainty will surely deter many from embarking on projects—and maybe that’s the point.”
[SEPP Comment: Is there any Colorado River runoff that is not already claimed? If there is little or none, then the issue is spring runoff from California streams, etc.]
Cooling at 10 stations in Antarctica by Kirye
My reply posted at Notrickszone
Nice detail by Kirye. The link below to a chart by Willis at WUWT using CERES data 2000 to 2017 identifies the SH cooling. It is the exact latitudes that all of the stations used in the above post.
Why did these stations and that latitude band cool is the primary question. This one is easy. Increased convection at low and tropical latitudes causes an action over Antarctica resulting in cold air to flow down off the continent and across the sea resulting in ideal sea ice formation conditions. The stations are in the pathway of the flow. Antarctic sea ice area has increased during increased tropical convection.
The cooling of the SST off the coast in the last figure is a direct result of the surface cold air flowing off the continent outwards onto the sea where it mixes with the warmer air rotating around Antarctica.
For every action there is a reaction. People talk of atmospheric connections but no one bothers to tie them together despite the over abundance of data available. Computer modeling has set back atmospheric research by at least 20 years. If you can’t see what is occurring in the raw data how do you expect a model to show it. Models hide the detail, they are similar to a bench top blender for making smoothies.
Regatds
Solar activity picked up a bit in May. The ‘classic’ sunspot count (Wolf SSN) is just above 7 points while the new SIDC reconstructed number is at 10.1
Composite graph is here
SC24 is entering what might be the start of a prolong minimum (possible late start of SC25 too) but “even a ‘dead cat bounce’ from these levels appear to be out of question”.
Start of SC25 might be slow, but a cross over SC14/25 according to my calculations might be in the early 2020.
What about SC25?
If my calculations are any good (the last time gave ‘incredibly’ accurate result :), see the link above), we have an estimate of the peak time for the next cycle. Assuming it occurs some time in 2025/26 the SC25 annual smoothed max will be in the low 50s in the old (Wolf) numbers while Dr. Svalgaard predicts much higher peak possibly around 100, or in the new corrected numbers somewhere in 140-160 region.
Pumped storage? Unreliability of renewables seems like one of the smaller problems for that approach.
Just one quick note. It’s not persuasive to most of those involved with environmentalism to say that the movement is all about advancing towards a one-world government since the majority of those involved fall into the category of “useful idiots.” It’s more accurate to say that Environmentalism movement has been co-opted by the One-World Government crowd. To some extent, those inside are aware of this but close their eyes to it as they see their own agenda being advanced.