A Warning from the Dead

Guest post by David Archibald

Following on from this post on the effect of excess water in the Midwest affecting planting, this graphic shows rainfall in the 30 days up to 26th May:

clip_image002

Figure 1: Rainfall in the Midwest in the 30 days to 26th May.

One place had almost an inch a day on average with a maximum of 28.25 inches. And what follows? The answer is more rain as shown by this seven day forecast:

clip_image004

Figure 2: Precipitation Forecast to 06/02/2019

The same area is going to get another four to five inches. The window for planting corn this season is now closed in the northern Corn Belt. All that water is going to end up in the Gulf of Mexico and that journey will concentrate a lot of minds in the floodplain of the Mississippi over the next few weeks.

The Bonnet Carre Spillway 12 miles west of New Orleans has had more use in recent years as show by this figure:

clip_image006

Figure 3: Bonnet Carre Spillway openings 1948 – 2019 and F10.7 flux

The last time there was a cluster of opening was during the 1970s cooling period associated with the weak Solar Cycle 20. The F10.7 radio flux is the most accurate measure of solar activity. Interesting reading on the history of flood control in the Mississippi valley is provided by this article and this book.

The story so far is that a lot of the corn crop in the northern Corn Belt didn’t get planted this year due to excess water on the ground and there will be a big flood of the Mississippi valley. What is the worst thing that could happen from here? Frosts hitting the emergent corn. The following graphic is from this tweet from a farmer somewhere on the Great Plains who says:

Going through some old stuff in my office. Came across this slide show by Dan De Boer (marketing) in January 2012. He died during the “grain rally” that summer. Lots of prophetic tidbits from 2012 drought to the cold/wet #noplant19 God help us if these things keep coming true.

clip_image008

Figure 4: Graphic warning of freezes in the northern Corn Belt in 2019-2020.

The chart at the top is from this article of mine in 2011 comparing solar activity during the Dalton Minimum with the setup for Solar Cycles 24 and 25. Mr De Boer’s warning is this:

Look out for summer freezes in the northern corn belt in 2019 – 2020. Look out for summer freezes in all of the US in 2030-2031.

A few days ago the New York Times carried an article on an algae bloom killing farmed salmon in Norway. By line four they had blamed global warming for that. The owners of one of the farms affected told me that it was a natural event that was mostly driven by high stream runoff in this instance.

The New York Times will have a hard time blaming global warming for frosts in July. But they will try.

David Archibald is the author of American Gripen: The Solution to the F-35 Nightmare

Advertisements

80 thoughts on “A Warning from the Dead

  1. “The New York Times will have a hard time blaming global warming for frosts in July.” ……. I’m going to go with …..no they won’t.

    • They’ll employ “climate weirding” or other such nonsense rationalization.
      Mike Mann and/or some other dishonest brokers will chime in with additional post hoc “completely expected” nonsense.

      When your climate belief is a religion and ever event taken on faith as to that cause, there is no alternative.

    • What they will have a hard time explaining is the next 16+ years. There will be a few warm spikes, and the media will grasp at each one saying that the warming is back, but will then be proven wrong again and again.

    • The NY Times (and others) never let facts get in the way of their stories. Their attitude is “once we print something, it cannot be wrong”. The entire media is infected with this disease.

    • I like the part about summer freezes in 2030 and 2031. I believe it was a site called climate science a few years ago where one person said by 2032 the so called average temp would drop by 1.5 degrees.

  2. Seeing the New York Times blaming Global Warming for frosts in July?…..no problem.. We all know that Global Warming can cause anything at all from severe glaciation to Monster Marmots. There is no limit as long as sufficient grants and funding are made available.

    • Monster marmots? God help us. I saw “Night of the Lepus”. I know where that goes.

      • Funniest film I ever saw! Those giant rabbits may have had huge razor sharp teeth, but the film never mentioned the size of those droppings that would choke the planet!!!!!! 😉

    • You’ve forgetting the most devastating of all possible climate change effects: When the climate doesnt change. You see, non-changing climate change is the worst climate change because people dont notice it. They dont notice climate change not-change changing the climate by not changing it.

      You see?

  3. Ain’t nature a big B, especially when she won’t cooperate with a well structured narrative complete with undocumented consensus putting a lid on debate and declaring science settled. It makes for a lot of work rewriting narratives. This Newspeak thing is much harder than Orwell made it seem.

    • I am in Northern California in the coastal range. Fresh rain is just starting to come in off of the Pacific. Haven’t had to water my garden for 10 days now.

      • It snowed here Sunday in the central sierras down to about 5000 feet, heavy steady rain further down and cold. Warm up coming this week finally

      • I live in East County of San Diego, and I have turned on my sprinklers ONCE this year. They are normally on a regular schedule by March.

  4. Farmers I speak with are more concerned with early frosts than late frosts …
    and rice doesn’t grow well here …

  5. Figure 4 is outdated and leads to a mistaken impression of Solar Cycle 24. That one peaked a lot higher than Solar Cycle 5 did. Cycle 24 peaked at about 80 when graphed with a similar amount of smoothing.

    • Severely outdated, plus it is hardly the reason for late frosts. Which by the way, have decreased with global warming since the 80’s, at least here.

    • Yes, it is outdated:
      “…Going through some old stuff in my office. Came across this slide show by Dan De Boer (marketing) in January 2012…”

  6. For a brief moment, I thought “A Warning From the Dead” was a reference to the Grateful Dead. But I was wrong.

    Des Plaines River is still at flood stage and more rain is expected. And July frosts are expected this year? Wow! We really do live in interesting times, don’t we?

    It isn’t just the corn crop that will be affected. Winter wheat has to be planted within a certain time to get the most growth in the spring, but with all the rain we’re having, I expect a bumper crop of wheat… which can be turned into beer… and that will make beer brewers who use ancient recipes very happy… and I”m sure there are more surprises yet to come.

    Thanks for the article. Good piece of info provided.

    • For the past four years or so most of the US GHCRN stations have reported either no warming or a very slight cooling trend. It may be only wearher and not climate, but it’s what we’re getting now, and that’s what counts.

      • Yes CRN is down

        Also Note this

        if you compare CRN with all the horrible, poorly sited, adjusted sites

        what do you see?

        https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/national-temperature-index/time-series?datasets%5B%5D=uscrn&datasets%5B%5D=climdiv&parameter=anom-tavg&time_scale=12mo&begyear=2005&endyear=2019&month=12

        CRN will continue to be a challenge for skeptics, because year in and year out it will show

        1. The “bad” stations are nt that bad ( here they run COOLER than CRN)
        2. The adjustments work

        • You know that the adjustments work because you compare them against what? The “real” numbers? Don’t have those, so no. So you claim something is right when you have no verifiable way of knowing if it is.

          Let’s see a long run test of say 50 sites where we are confident the data are good, compared with what the adjusted dara for those sites would be using your adjustment methodology (the standard one used across all adjusted sites…) over say ten years. That should show a very high degree of agreement between real dara and adjusted data, and prove your claim. Simple, cheap, easy test, right?

          • “You know that the adjustments work because you compare them against what? The “real” numbers? Don’t have those, so no. So you claim something is right when you have no verifiable way of knowing if it is.”

            Good point, Phoenix44. It is a good idea to point out when claims are unsubstantiated. Thank you for doing so.

          • They compare them against the models. If they match, then they adjustments are correct.

        • Hi Steve,

          I mixed my acronyms. The data set I used was the unadjusted GHCN Monthly V4 summaries, not the USCRN stations. Sorry about that.

          I’m also not using anomalies, but running least squares against the data for each individual station.

          I don’t know if I’d call those a very good match. It’s hard to read, but it looks like the ClimDiv is at around 0.38 and the CRN at 0.55. That’s a 45% error. I wouldn’t call that “working.”

  7. A few days ago the New York Times carried an article on an algae bloom killing farmed salmon in Norway. By line four they had blamed global warming for that.

    We know that gimmik, it’s cold, because it’s warming 😀
    If they had written “by climate change”, I couldt accept that, not saying “human induced” 😀

  8. “The F10.7 radio flux is the most accurate measure of solar activity. “

    I’m not sure “accurate” is the right word.
    But that probably boils down to the precise operational definition one uses for “solar activity” and the avoidance of creating a tautology.

    • And just how many years of that F10.7 Flux grap are actually measured versus reconstructed?

      Corn maturity is from 100 to 130 days.
      September harvest dates are still viable for most northern corn fields.

      All the earlier planting dates for corn allows more leeway on harvest dates.

  9. The EPA ethanol blending requirement into gasoline in the US needs to be relaxed. Maybe Back to 5%.
    Problem solved.
    0.0% would be best for the environment, for pocketbooks, and for engines, but that’s politically unacceptable for a President who needs to win Iowa in 202.

    • Gasoline mandates are originally derived from the 1990 Clean Air Act. The requirement for ethanol was really a requirement for 2.5 wt % oxygen and not ethanol per se. For many years, MTBE and other oxygenates were preferred. Further, the reformulated gasoline requirements only apply to cities with smog problems as deemed by the EPA. These certainly account for the greatest consumption of gasoline and as a matter of convenience, reformulated gasoline is used in numerous other areas and local and state governments also have the option to “opt-in.” There are other exceptions and waivers available.

      I’m not fully up to date with the latest requirements but only raise the above points because I think there are already provisions in place to adjust formulations as needed.

    • Did you take note of Trump recently saying that they may push for 15% blending, and for any time of year?

      I had someone argue that the use of ethanol for blending was better for the environment as compared to other products which have been used as additives in gasoline. Didn’t know how to reply to that.

          • Either way, Trump is trying to win Iowa.

            Yeah, don’t look for Trump to suggest cutting ethanol. That’s way too delicate a subject right now. 🙂

  10. In the meantime, Sprouts is selling corn here for less than seventeen cents an ear, cheapest I’ve seen in a long time. Guess I had better enjoy it while it lasts.

  11. The Morganza Spillway west of Baton Rouge will likely be opened on June 2nd. That floods a lot of farmland to relieve up-stream flood waters approaching the tops of levees that protects towns and and developed areas. Farmland that is highly productive will be put undeerwater for a month or more, eliminating the summer agriculture production there.

    https://www.nola.com/news/2019/05/morganza-spillway-could-be-open-by-june-2-governor-to-call-for-federal-emergency-declaration.html
    “The Morganza Spillway was previously opened in 1973 and 2011.”

  12. Since CO2 the the be all and end all, this kind of information will be ignored by settled scientists, to the detriment of all whose fortunes depend on the weather. We must put an end to settled science.

  13. Hmmm … It will take some time to tell but I wonder if all this “climate change” will recharge the Ogallala Aquifer?
    If it does will they that’s bad?

  14. If we knew what the SSTs were back then, it would give a clearer understanding of what possibly lies ahead. I have to consider Bastardi’s opinion that we are starting a solar cooling period with very warm oceans and a higher global temperature so it will hopefully mitigate things some. The question is what the oceans will do in response to the reductions of solar output and how fast.

    • Working out solar effect on the ocean cooling isn’t an easy task. About couple of years I did an exercise analysing the Maunder Minimum’s possible effect on the CET, since the England’s temperature has strong north Atlantic’s SST component.
      http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/CET-MM.htm
      From the above, accounting for the Atlantic’s multi-decadal and global multi-centenary trends, initial cooling was a slow process while the subsequent warming appears to have been more rapid.
      The ‘conclusion’ from the above is that a ‘short’ solar minimum effect would be negligible while a 50 year MM type minimum would result in up to 0.75 degree C temperature fall, or about 20 years of cooling in excess of 0.5 degree C.
      I would like to hear if anyone has come across any similar or alternative analysis.

      • If the above hypothesis is reflection of the past ‘reality’, the question is: what would be the effect of another Maunder type minimum on the temperature on the most populated part of the globe, i.e. N. Hemisphere ?
        It’s obvious that it depends where on the MM occurs in relation to multi-decadal & -entenary cycles, with SC25, 26 and 27 cycles start are considered in the link below.
        http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/NH-GM.htm

        • I agree with your assessment overall. That because we are in a current Warm Period that any cooling will be mitigated to a degree by that fact. There is one exception to that though. That can be seen on the JG/U temp graph at around 1100 AD, right in the middle of the MWP. The cold drop is a double dip almost 60 year long cold trend. It is also the deepest cold drop on the entire 2,000 year long graph. … http://www.uni-mainz.de/eng/bilder_presse/09_geo_tree_ring_northern_europe_climate.jpg

          Wonder what made that one so special?

        • Hekla had it’s second strongest eruption ever in 1104 AD after 250 years of being quiet. That must have been part of what happened

  15. Media are now an arbiter of scientific truth. Are 75 individuals 97% of all scientists?

  16. “The F10.7 radio flux is the most accurate measure of solar activity. “
    Neither F10.7 or the SSN are perfect metrics.
    “The F10.7 index is a measure of the noise level generated by the sun at a wavelength of 10.7 cm at the earth’s orbit. The global daily value of this index is measured at local noon at the Pentictin Radio Observatory in Canada. Historically, this index has been used as an input to ionospheric models as a surrogate for the solar output in wavelengths that produce photoionization in the earth’s ionosphere (in the ultraviolet bands).”
    While F10.7 measures only what impacts the planet’s ionosphere the SSN count has a wider angle of a view, but it is in part a subjective measure.
    According to this image
    comparing this May’s sunspot count and the visibility of a constant area projected from a sphere on a two dimensional surface, there might be some doubt about its being accurate measure of solar activity.
    I observed daily the HMI Continuum and the associated Magnetogram and would suggest that for the period 5-17th of May sunspot count should have been nearly constant, the fact that at the start and the end the observers see an apparently smaller areas by looking at the solar sphere, appears not to be compensated for.
    Comment form Dr. Svalgaard would be helpful.

    • Someone should make a Solar Activity Index that incorporates a daily average F10.7*, XRay EVE-ESP# (0.1-7 nm in mW/sm from SDO), and daily SSN.

      *F10.7 adjusted for 1AU
      #Although GOES-15 XRT data could be used, I’d worried about XRT level adjustments NOAA may make such as they did on 18 April 2019 without warning.

    • Also AR 12740 and AR12741 are still firing away. They just came back into view of Stereo-A on the Sun’s back side on Friday-Sunday. They’ll get new AR numbers (12742, 12743) when they rotate into view starting May 30th.
      https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/browse/2019/05/27/ahead/euvi/195/2048/20190527_204530_n7euA_195.jpg

      AR12741’s large umbra was fragmenting when it rotated over the limb last week, so it may have several smaller AR umbras instead of the one large umbra.
      http://www.solen.info/solar/images/AR_CH_20190516_hres.png

    • vukcevic wrote, “According to this image comparing this May’s sunspot count and the visibility of a constant area projected from a sphere on a two dimensional surface, there might be some doubt about its being accurate measure of solar activity.
      I observed daily the HMI Continuum and the associated Magnetogram and would suggest that for the period 5-17th of May sunspot count should have been nearly constant, the fact that at the start and the end the observers see an apparently smaller areas by looking at the solar sphere, appears not to be compensated for.”

      I don’t understand this, vukcevic. It appears to be a description of the visibility of just one particular small part of the Sun’s surface, over the approximately 24-day period of rotation of the Sun’s equator. But, of course, sunspots don’t occur on just one particular part of the Sun’s surface, so what is the significance of this trigonometry?

      • Hi DB
        My statement might have been a bit clearer, but it was meant for attention of Dr.S and a possible clarification regarding sunspot measurements used.
        D.Hathaway from NASA said: “We consider sunspot area as an alternative measure of the photospheric magnetic flux.”
        The degree of divergence of various proxies with sunspot area varies widely, but the 10.7 cm flux shows smallest deviations, thus correct calculation of a sunspot area at rising horizon is an important metric for short term prediction of the magnetic flux.
        The two sunspots concerned changed very little during transition across the sphere, this would suggest that the solar activity should have been nearly constant for the period, but as it can be seen from my link, the SSN is a close approximation of a constant size area change as measured from observing telescope projection, apparently without a correction for the change in the viewing angle during the transition.

  17. still not planted anything here in maine (vegetable gardens) and many local farmers not planted yet either due to mud.

  18. It’s been raining almost every day here in northern Virginia, even days when none had been predicted. We had a couple of dry days last week, just enough for us to be able to mow the yard. But this week, forget it. Massive thunderstorms every night, and sunshine during the day. The yard is becoming a jungle, and rain is in the forecast every day for the next ten.

    This is after a state of drought in 2017 which brought dire predictions of people living on wells (like my wife and me) having no water. I thought that was a bit odd, because aquifers are generally not that shallow. In any event, last year had a huge surplus of precipitation, and this year looks to be even wetter.

  19. Cooling would be a game changer.

    There is hard observational evidence and analysis results that unequivocally supports the assertion that we did not cause the CO2 rise (less than 5%).

    If that assertion is true, the CO2 rise is caused by the temperature rise and the CO2 rise of course did not cause the warming.

    If the increase atmospheric CO2 did not cause the warming, then the planet could cool and if it did cool atmospheric CO2 levels would fall.

    Greenland Cooling

    The sudden unexpected Greenland cooling is a big deal as the most amount of warming in the last 25 years occurring in the Greenland region.

    This high latitude regional warming which does not match the signature of AGW, has occurred before and is cyclic.

    https://notrickszone.com/2019/05/20/greenland-has-been-cooling-in-recent-years-26-of-its-47-largest-glaciers-now-stable-or-gaining-ice/

    • Summer average temperatures for 2018 were lower than the 2008-2018 average by more than one standard deviation.

    • In 2018, 26 of Greenland’s 47 largest glaciers were either stable or grew in size.
    • Overall, the 47 glaciers advanced by +4.1 km² during 2018. Of the 6 largest glaciers, 4 grew while 2 retreated.
    • Since 2012, ice loss has been “minor” to “modest” due to the dramatic melting slowdown.

    This is the recent record of Greenland ice sheet temperature changes.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-01451-7/figures/1

    There is some ocean surface temperature cooling also.

    https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2019/anomnight.5.27.2019.gif

    • James Hansen knew he and the Left had about 35 years or so from 1980 to run their CO2 Climate Scam. He knew that if they hadn’t “sealed the deal” by 2015 it was probably game over for the hustle. Only the Big El Nino of 2015-2016 has saved their butts until now.

      Hansen retired from GISS in 2013. I suspect it was probably also because he was getting uncomfortable with the level of adjustments the White House OSTP was demanding to the GISS temperature data set, so he stepped aside (forced aside?) for someone who would accommodate the Obama WH demands.

  20. For a good read on Mississippi floods, California fires and volcanoes, consider” The Control of Nature” , 1989 John McPhee

  21. So what or how does this springs weather correlate that of 1926?
    Cause the Headlines”Unprecedented Flooding” since 1927 in small print, have already been cycled out.
    History repeating?
    Though I keep hearing George Carlin;Live on a flood plain, “Gee ma,whats this water flowing through the living room”.

  22. Early snow (40cm in MAY) in the hills in the SH (Victoria Australia) and late winter in the NH.
    Just heard the snow field people say, last time it was this ”good’ was back in 2000..
    Hmmm.

  23. Wouldn’t it be great if we had a national plumbing system that pumped water out of homes, cities and fields to reservoirs in the dry west. Just dreaming. I’ll bet the money spent on Mars and moon expeditions would have went a long way on pipeline costs.

    • Hey, if anyone wants to spend the money, I’ll make an aqua duct from the Midwest all the way to California. Just need a few trillion dollars. 😀 No droughts ever again!

  24. There’s a reason we have massive complex drainage systems in the midwest and north midwest.

  25. We had a good frost in southern Manitoba this morning courtesy global warming. A friend cold not golf so he joined us for coffee.

    • How cold does it have to be for golfers to call it a day in Manitoba? I’ve played in Maryland when I couldn’t putt out because of ice around the cup.

  26. “The New York Times will have a hard time blaming global warming for frosts in July. But they will try.”

    I dont know why we even bother saying things like this. We know they have changed the game from “Warming” to “Change” and change includes calling things extreme or unprecdented. Therefore frosts in July are further proof of extreme weather due to climate change. No investigation or review of history or facts needed.

    • And it’s all about “extremes” as that’s much scarier than increases of reactions of a degree. Earlier this year in the UK we had an “expert” comparing a maximum temperature with an average, and then claiming that that maximum in – 20 degrees C -was “twice as hot” as the 10 degree C average! All unchallenged by the BBC despite the total nonsense being spouted.

  27. When conditions force late planting in the corn belt there will be more soybeans planted. BTW Indiana cantaloupe, usually the best to be found anywhere, is exceptional this year!
    Last evening had a funnel cloud pass to the NW of my place here in southern Madison County, IN. No damage around my place but it took some trees and roofs to the west of me in the vicinity of Pendleton, IN and my girls that live about 4 miles NE of my place had ping-pong ball size hail. First tornado warning of the year here. We were on the rainy side of the storm and so I couldn’t get a video of it. https://www.heraldbulletin.com/news/update-reported-tornado-causes-extensive-damage-in-pendleton/article_ed7ef8ec-80e2-11e9-a9f1-abbbb4949f05.html

    • The high pressure system in the southeast U.S. is keeping the jet stream stationary over the central U.S. and that’s why we keep getting these trains of storms as the low pressure systems follow the jet stream up and over the high pressure system, which is why we are seeing lots of tornadoes in the U.S. midwest right now.

      https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-84.37,37.02,401

      It has rained so much in Oklahoma and environs that we are experiencing very high floods. I live outside a city of about 35,000 and we are keeping our fingers crossed that the water doesn’t come up high enough to cause the water pumps to have to be shut down. We are within a foot or two of that happening, but happily, the rain has been much less in the last few days as the main focus of the systems seems to be moving west and north of Oklahoma presumably because the high pressure system in the southeast is pushing the jet stream that way.

      In Oklahoma during the summer we usually get a big high pressure system that shows up and sits on top of us for weeks to months and causes it to get very hot and dry around here. That’s what I’m looking for now. Not looking forward to it, but looking for it because that is normal weather around here.

      We got a little bit too much rain over a small area but around here it’s always good to get that rain because it usually gets hot and dry during the summer so having a lot of moisture in the soil is a great benefit.

      Most of the tornadoes this year have been relatively weak, although there was one that was an EF3. Of course, if a tornado hits your house, even a weak one means a very bad day.

  28. With cooler North Atlantic SST’s, total hurricane (cyclone) energy should increase due to the higher lattitudinal temperature gradient. It is the trmperature gradient that drives the engines of weather.

    Of course the increase in hurricane intensity, caused by cooling, will be blamed on warming.

  29. Corn and soybean planting is seriously behind schedule this year, in the USA. From Successful Farming magazine 5/20/19:
    “U.S. corn farmers have the most corn acres left to plant, on this date, than they have ever had and remain behind the trade’s expectations, as well.
    In its Crop Progress Report Monday, the USDA pegged U.S. corn planting at 49% complete, behind the 80% five-year average.
    In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. soybean planting completion rate at 19% vs. a 47% five-year average.
    In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. winter wheat crop as 66% good/excellent vs. a 64% five-year average.”

    https://www.agriculture.com/news/crops/us-corn-planting-is-waaaaaaaaaaaaay-behind-usda-says

Comments are closed.