Reposted from Fabius Maximus Blog
Larry Kummer, Editor Climate change 19 May 2019
Summary: Activists hope that daily apocalyptic news stories about climate change will mold public opinion, no matter how much they exaggerate the science. For a stunning example, look at the news and facts about droughts.
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The propaganda barrage by climate activists has few precedents in modern US history, increasing in intensity and the magnitude of its exaggerations. Any extreme weather, no matter how typical in history, becomes evidence of human influences: heat waves, cold, floods, snow, and – as described in this post – droughts. Activists hope that their flow of alarmist “news” will shape public opinion, just as a riven can carve through mountains.
About the California drought, forever until it ended
For several years journalists and activists pumped out stories like this. Seldom did they mention the IPCC or any contrary notes by scientists.
“Thanks El Nino, But California’s drought is probably forever” by Rick Stockton at Wired, May 2016.
“California Braces for Unending Drought” by Ian Lovett at the NYT, May 2016.
Editorial in the San Francisco Chronicle: “Drought is the new normal“, December 2017.
The Pacific Institute on the California drought: “Responding to the drought is responding to a ‘new normal’ water future with climate change” (2016).
See this example from September 2016 showing how sober research becomes apocalyptic warnings.
- “Prolonged California aridity linked to climate warming and Pacific sea surface temperature” in Science Reports. Conclusions: “it remains uncertain if the Pacific will react in a similar manner in the 21st century, but should it follow apparent past behavior more intense and prolonged aridity in California would result.”
- The UCLA press release is more dramatic: “Pacific Ocean’s response to greenhouse gases could extend California drought for centuries.”
- A story by KTLA-5 is apocalyptic: “‘The New Normal’: California’s Severe Drought Could Last Indefinitely, New Study Says.” UCLA Professor Glen MacDonald, the lead author, said “it’s not beyond reason that as we move into the 21st century that this isn’t a drought. This could be what would we consider normal conditions for California: a drier and hotter state,”
The Texas drought, a new normal until it wasn’t
The Texas regional drought produced a similar flood of doomster stories.
“Texas’ Permanent Drought” by Forrest Wilder at the Texas Observer, July 2011.
“Texas Climate News sought out the state’s finest climatologists, oceanographers and public-policy experts. If nothing else, their responses make clear that the Lone Star State is headed for a new normal.” {Dallas Observer, 14 October 2013.}
“Fear in a Handful Of Dust” by Ted Genoways, The New Republic: “Climate change is making the Texas panhandle, birthplace of the state’s iconic Longhorn, too hot and dry to raise beef. …environmental activists and reporters began to ask whether “drought” – a temporary weather pattern – was really the right term for what was happening in the state, or whether “desertification” was more appropriate. … ‘If climate change is the real deal then the human race as we know it is over’.”
“Drought is ‘the new normal’” by Lacey Jarrell at the Herald and News, September 2015.
“Texas’ Record Floods Are the New Normal” by TakePart, September 2015.
Back to reality: good news about droughts
“We don’t even plan for the past.”
— About our unpreparedness for the inevitable repeat of past weather, by Steven Mosher of Berkeley Earth at Climate Etc.
Neither of those droughts was unusual for their regional climates. Scientists said so at the time. (See the quotes in the posts listed below.) Such short-term events tell us little or nothing about climate trends (but showed our poor ability to handle normal weather). But clickbait-loving leftist journalists misreported the science.
Now the weather has swung to the other extreme, but there are few stories about this good news: the percent of the continental US in drought is at a record low (i.e., going back to January 2000), with a slight trend to less droughts (h/t to Professor Roger Pielke Jr.). This graph shows the percent not in drought. For more information, see the US Drought Monitor.
What do we know about the trend in droughts?
How much do climate scientists From the table 1in the Summary for Policymakers of the Working Group I of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report, a description of what we know about the trends for various kinds of extreme weather. Here is the row about drought. Unlike the bold certain claims by activists, the IPCC’s scientists have low confidence in assessment about past and future trends.
- “Increases in intensity and/or duration of drought: low confidence on a global scale’
- “Assessment that changes occurred (typically since 1950 unless otherwise indicated): low confidence.
- “Assessment of a human contribution to observed changes: low confidence.
- “Likelihood of further changes in the early 21st century: low confidence.”
You will seldom see this mentioned in articles about climate change, especially since Leftists abandoned the IPCC as “too conservative” (examples here and here). That is why they are losing. We cannot successfully cope with climate change – natural and anthropogenic – without a relentless focus on the science. Otherwise climate change will become a tool for those who wish to shape society for other reasons.
For More Information
Two useful government reports about climate change.
- “Climate Change: Information on Potential Economic Effects Could Help Guide Federal Efforts to Reduce Fiscal Exposure.” by the Government Accountability Office (GAO), September 2017. See its misleading press coverage.
- “Drought in the United States: Causes and Current Understanding” by the Congressional Research Service, November 2017.
Ideas! For shopping ideas, see my recommended books and films at Amazon.
If you liked this post, like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. See these Reference Pages for other posts about climate on the FM sites: The keys to understanding climate change and My posts about climate change. Also, see these posts about droughts …
- Recommended: Key facts about the drought that’s reshaping California.
- Have we prepared for normal climate change and non-extreme weather?
- Droughts are coming. Are we ready for the past to repeat?
- Let’s prepare for past climate instead of bickering about predictions of climate change.
- Our response to California’s drought shows America at work to enrich the 1%.
- Recommended: Key facts about the drought that’s reshaping Texas.
- The Texas drought ends; climate alarmists wrong again!
- Lessons learned from the end of California’s “permanent drought.”
- Weather porn about Texas, a lesson for Earth Day 2019.
Books about droughts
See the 1993 classic book forecasting our present problems Cadillac Desert: The American West and Its Disappearing Water
They won’t be able to use it this year, at least so far.
“The United States just had its Wettest 12 Months in Recorded History — Cosmic Ray Flux”
https://electroverse.net/the-united-states-just-had-its-wettest-12-months-in-recorded-history-cosmic-ray-flux/?fbclid=IwAR3VjqrzbvBO1CQTqn_hLiWJ4XC4PQMXWhR1hTWu7AXDn7LagyJfC3af_9c
Larry
“Activists hope that their flow of alarmist “news” will shape public opinion, just as a riven (river)? can carve through mountains.”
Marcus,
Great catch! Thanks for flagging that.
“The victor will never be asked if he had lied”-Adolph Hitler
One of the more interesting discussions in economics in Australia at the moment is what exactly is a Climate Change cost. For example having to repair house or infrastructure damage actually becomes an industry and a service. If we viewed banks in the same way as Climate Change costs are being counted then they should be abolished because they are nothing but a cost. These industries only becomes a problem when you can’t meet the ongoing payments for the industry service. The more strict way to do Climate Change costings would be to treat it like the banking sector with both positive and negatives.
With the Australian Election having put the leftist inner city eco-warriors in their place it interesting the more intelligent conversations that are actually opening up. Currently Coal earns $20B and Gas $22B per year and that buys a lot of ability to fund any real climate costs and actually help grow the economy.
LdB,
Interesting indeed. The Greens are being turned away in the USA, Germany, France, and now Australia. The ‘Green New Deal’ is so preposterous, even AOC is now walking it back.
Incessant rain is the new normal in N. California.
You heard it here first.
For example, consider the drought tolerant nature of native plants in many parts of California Periodic droughts have been the norm long before the beginning of the industrial revolution. But even if we could somehow stop the Earth’s climate from changing, extreme weather events including drought and sea level rise would continue because they are all part of the current climate. Mankind does not know of a climate regime that does not include extreme weather events such as floods and drought. So even if mankind could somehow change the earth’s climate we do not know what to change it to.
Historians should investigate if there has been another climate optimum in the Holocene period (medieval, roman, minoan …) that has been as wasted as the actual climate optimum by climate alarmists, green psychopaths, snake oil salesmen, all of those fraudsters having the same qualification :
They can SEE HOW TO shamelessly fill their pockets with this scam.
Another fake climate calamity has been the claim of Great Lakes being lowered by global warming.
https://www.csgmidwest.org/policyresearch/0213glclimate.aspx
Record-low water levels, rise in algal blooms among concerns linked to changing Great Lakes climate
by Tim Anderson ~ February 2013 ~ Stateline Midwest »
and…….
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/water-levels-of-the-great-lakes-are-declining/
and
https://www.cleveland.com/weather/blog/2017/08/how_is_climate_change_affectin.html
“Rising temperatures could lower water levels in the lakes, intensify harmful algal blooms and threaten fish and wildlife.”
But now, and not surprisingly, the lakes are approaching record high levels and global warming is to blame.
https://abc57.com/news/concern-growing-over-rising-lake-level
… at 1:34 in that news video a meteorologist asserts global warming is now to blame for rising lake levels.
and….
https://www.newyorkupstate.com/weather/2019/05/is-climate-change-to-blame-for-lake-ontarios-alarming-water-levels.html
History shows, for thousands of years in the past, that droughts are common. They are no more nor less common today, than they were, say 50 100 years ago! There were droughts when there WEREN’T any humans! There WILL be droughts long after we are gone! The Earth is populated by piss ants (humans when viewed from space) and even the real piss ants have little, if any, effect on the Earth and it’s environment/atmosphere! Liberals have an agenda, that of destroying the Earth and all of it’s inhabitants! WHY?? The only answer has to be that THEY are all insane! So, are we going to model our lives around the ravings of lunatics? I sincerely hope not!
History shows us, for thousands of years in the past, that droughts are common. They are no more nor less common today, than they were, say 50, 100 or a thousand years ago! There were droughts when there WEREN’T any humans! There WILL be droughts long after we are gone! The Earth is populated by piss ants (humans, when viewed from space) and even the real piss ants have little, if any, effect on the Earth and it’s environment/atmosphere! Liberals have an agenda, that of destroying the Earth and all of it’s inhabitants! WHY?? The only answer has to be that THEY are all insane! So, are we going to model our lives around the ravings of lunatics? I sincerely hope not!
“We cannot successfully cope with climate change”
Great to see you’re only a little bit brainwashed!
That like calling the journey from here (Scotland) to London “downhill” – because it’s a few tends of meters lower than where we live and starting to talking about “coping with going downhill” – when between here and London are numerous hills which are far far greater than almost insignificant overall change.
Of course “we” can cope with climate change – because it is so small and so inconsequential that it only has meaning (and even then very little) when totally ignoring all the far more important short term changes.
Upper Colorado River basin is at 246% of average today, with more snow to come.
http://www.snowpack.water-data.com/uppercolorado/index.php
DROUGHT in the American Southwest is not a joking matter. It is a reality and has been for a very long time.
What it isn’t is NEW — it is generally believed that the Anasazi — “the Anasazi, a civilization that arose as early as 1500 B.C. Their descendants are today’s Pueblo Indians, such as the Hopi and the Zuni, who live in 20 communities along the Rio Grande, in New Mexico, and in northern Arizona.” — where driven out of their lands and “disappeared” as a culture due to an extended major drought. “Using data from tree rings, researchers know that a terrible drought seized the Southwest from 1276 to 1299; it is possible that in certain areas there was virtually no rain at all during those 23 years” [ source ]
Alarmists would like to claim both too much rain and not enough rain as evidence of their favorite talking point.
The image of the “Dry Lake Bed” con is the best. Three times I’ve stumbled onto the alarmist use of images of dry lake beds. The first was a TED presentation by a Green Venture Capital CEO. Recognized the image of the Salton Sea which is drying due to interception of water for urban and agriculture use. The second was a dried up lake in China. It took about five minutes online to see it was a victim of the Three Gorges Dam project. And, the latest was a drying Lake Oroville in 2015. And, the dam was overflowing in 2017.
Very true. Poor griff was a science denier until the bitter end, claiming California was still in a drought even when presented with data showing that 0% of the state was under drought conditions.