Harvard Offering Advice to Climate Apocalypse Survivalists

Graph from p3768 of J. Hansen et al.: Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms.
Graph from p3768 of J. Hansen et al.: Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms.

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

According to University of Minnesota Harvard lecturer Jesse Keenan, the place to go if you want to survive Climageddon is Duluth, Minnesota on the shores of Lake Superior

Want to Escape Global Warming? These Cities Promise Cool Relief

By Kendra Pierre-Louis
April 15, 2019

DULUTH, Minn. — As the West burns, the South swelters and the East floods, some Americans are starting to reconsider where they choose to live.

For advice, a few of them are turning to Jesse Keenan, a lecturer at the Harvard University Graduate School of Design. At least once a day, Dr. Keenan, who studies urban development and climate adaptation, gets an email from someone asking where to move to be safe from climate change. The messages come from people who are thinking about moving not because they have already been hit by catastrophe, but because they see the writing on the wall.

So, what does Dr. Keenan suggest to these advance planners? Maybe climate-proof Duluth

That’s a slogan that he created as part of an economic development and marketing package commissioned by the University of Minnesota Duluth. Some community leaders think they can spur growth by bringing in more people, and they sense an opportunity in climate change. And Duluth isn’t the only urban area that has climate migration on their radar. In a February speech, the mayor of Buffalo, Byron W. Brown, declared his city a “climate refuge.”

Dr. Keenan emphasized one day in mid-March as we stood on the ice of Lake Superior that the Duluth slogan was meant to be tongue-in-cheek. The science behind it, though, is no joke.

Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/15/climate/climate-migration-duluth.html

Before you all pack your bags and move to Duluth or Buffalo, Dr. James Hansen, whose 1988 testimony pretty much kick started the climate movement, thinks ice melt could trigger a multi-decadal period of extreme cold (see the graph at the top of the page).

… Global temperature becomes an unreliable diagnostic of planetary condition as the ice melt rate increases. Global energy imbalance (Fig. 15b) is a more meaningful measure of planetary status as well as an estimate of the climate forcing change required to stabilize climate. Our calculated present energy imbalance of ∼ 0.8 W m−2 (Fig. 15b) is larger than the observed 0.58 ± 0.15 W m−2 during 2005–2010 (Hansen et al., 2011). The discrepancy is likely accounted for by excessive ocean heat uptake at low latitudes in our model, a problem related to the model’s slow surface response time (Fig. 4) that may be caused by excessive small-scale ocean mixing.

Large scale regional cooling occurs in the North Atlantic and Southern oceans by mid-century (Fig. 16) for 10-year doubling of freshwater injection. A 20-year doubling places similar cooling near the end of this century, 40 years ear- lier than in our prior simulations (Fig. 7), as the factor of 4 increase in current freshwater from Antarctica is a 40-year advance.

Cumulative North Atlantic freshwater forcing in sverdrup years (Sv years) is 0.2 Sv years in 2014, 2.4 Sv years in 2050, and 3.4Sv years (its maximum) prior to 2060 (Fig. S14). The critical issue is whether human-spurred ice sheet mass loss can be approximated as an exponential process during the next few decades. Such nonlinear behavior depends upon amplifying feedbacks, which, indeed, our climate simulations reveal in the Southern Ocean. …

Read more: http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/3761/2016/acp-16-3761-2016.pdf

So what dedicated climate survivalists really need to do is buy their house in Duluth or Boulder, but also take an option on a well elevated property on a warm Caribbean island, in case James Hansen is right about the decades of extreme cold.

Correction (EW): Jesse Keenan is a lecturer at Harvard, not University of Minnesota (h/t Michael Jankowski).

85 thoughts on “Harvard Offering Advice to Climate Apocalypse Survivalists

  1. This is ridiculous. If we can handle going from 20 degrees in January to 80 degrees in July with no problems, why would 2 degree change in 50 years not be taken in stride. I mean who even knows what advances there might be in technology in the meantime. Oh wait, I remember all the predictions of the iPhone in the year 2000. They were also spot on (sarc). I won’t be around in 50 years but for my grandkids sake I hope we have the 2 degrees of warming instead of cooling. My brother lives in Buffalo, MN and brrrr.

    • There will be no advances in technology. The greens want us living in caves again with under 10 million total humans.

      • Do you suppose the greens will lead the way, Disney-style lemmings? I don’t believe I see that trend beginning yet.

      • As with many of their delusions, Liberals imagine themselves as the survivors. These folks are mostly urban dwellers with little survival skills or knowledge of how to grow food and hunt.
        They’ll be the first to go in an apocalypse, climate or otherwise.

        • Beat the rush. Trade your subtropical beach front property that will soon be underwater and burning up for my flood proof cooler Indiana US property . Hurry before it’s gone.

        • “They’ll be the first to go in an apocalypse, climate or otherwise.”

          I disagree. They know there is no climate apocalypse coming, but use the fear of it to have everyone else surrender his freedom to their control. That results in a true apocalypse, such as the one we are witnessing in Venezuela. The population at large is starving, but the elite still dine on lavish meals in 5 star restaurants, perhaps wondering what all the fuss is about. It happens everywhere that a few seize control over the many (and I don’t mean Apple or Amazon – I mean people with guns who kill all dissenters).

      • (Warning, sarcasm ahead)

        You cannot move into caves, dig your own tunnels! Caves are the home of protected and beloved Bat species!

        Which is more important to you? Saving mankind who have caused all of the known problems (actually mainly just the Bush and now Trump republicans) in the universe , or small cute little flying mammals?

        Nope, no caves for you! You just stand out there and fry in those 1.5 C warmer (mostly at night, mostly in colder places) temperatures.

        • Robert of Texas April 21, 2019 at 7:59 am

          No problem the wind turbines will have killed all the bats by then

          michael

        • All the bats will have died in windmills qith the Raptors

          [Quith the battered Rapters, “Nevermore.” .mod]

      • The ideal place to go to avoid climate changes is probably the moon. With no air or water residents have a pretty stable climate – though the odd meteor kicks up a bit of dust from time to time.

    • Ah! But the only way we can tolerate those temperature extremes? Energy. Cheap, plentiful, available … Energy. You know, that thing which the climate alarmists are attempting to eliminate.

    • “the mayor of Buffalo, Byron W. Brown, declared his city a “climate refuge.””

      If one believes in AGW there is a little truth here maybe.

      This is why I cannot for the life of me understand why Canadians are worrying about AGW.

      Cheers

      Roger
      [email trimmed this time, but if you wish …. The mods don’t recommend publishing your address so openly. .nod]

  2. Duluth – HA! Less then 3 months ago, Duluth hit a temp of 35 BELOW zero (F). And THIS is going to be the place that is “safe” from Climate! I see, with some massive Global Warming, Duluth my only hit 33 below zero in future winters – a veritable garden spot!

  3. I wonder why the population of Duluth peaked in the late 1950’s/early 1960’s. People are moving away from Northern population centers, such as Chicago being an example, and they are not moving North, but rather South to places like Texas, Florida, Arizona.

    If this migration were due to temperature and factors other than high taxes/costs and poor opportunities delivered by leftist policies, then Duluth would be booming. It’s not, and therein is reality.

  4. All bases covered, AGW could cause extreme cold, extreme warmth or more of the same. Sounds pretty much like old fashioned natural climate change., Could be heading for another medieval warm period or another Little Iceage but we just don’t know.

    • One thing is sure , whatever happens they will say ” this is exactly what we predicted would happen”.

      The non-falsifiable hypothesis to crown all non-falsifiable hypotheses.

  5. Meanwhile, Climate Realists need a place to go to get away from the blithering blathering Alarmists, and their Alarmist rhetoric.

  6. One month past the start of spring and there is still ice on Lake Superior, the ice-breaker Mackinaw was still helping ships in and out of the Soo Locks as late as last week.

    If you’ve been looking for nice lake front property I’ve got just the spot for you in Duluth

  7. We have 99% certainty, but of course the opposite might happen before our predictions come true, maybe.

  8. I have always wondered why humans evolved in the warmth of central Africa. I have always wondered why humans have a normal temperature of 98.6 F. I have always wondered why humans have sweat glands and not heat glands. I have always wondered why anyone would think colder is better.

  9. There are people in Minneapolis expecting a huge population boom from “climate refugees.”

    • Rocky & Bullwinkle, Natasha Fatal & Boris Badenough all reside in Frost Bite Falls Minnesota. That’s a shure fire draw.

  10. “…According to University of Minnesota lecturer Jesse Keenan…”

    He’s at Harvard, not at Minnesota.

  11. If the Earth continues to warm (mostly naturally), then Minnesota will benefit greatly. Here in Texas we likely will see very little change (you can’t get hotter then H*LL, so what is there to fear?). We might (this is my own opinion) get more rain and that would be a blessing especially in West Texas.

    But north in Minnesota, they could actually see real warming in their winters and at night making the area much more temperate and pleasant. Heating bills would go down, deaths would go down, the growing season would increase in days. They are in a good place for a warmer Earth. If there is a backslide on warming as some are predicting in the 2020’s, then they might have to wait another 20 to 30 years to see the benefits of a warming Earth.

    But then cometh the next Little Ice Age (or a big one) and then they won’t be in such a great place. Could be hundreds of years, could be thousands, but it is coming. The only certain thing you can take out of geologic history is it gets warm and it gets cold, and mankind doesn’t matter one iota in that process.

    • Speaking truths is an act of heresy these days. I lived in Minneapolis in the 80’s and experienced 2 of their worst winters on record. My son lives there today and just went through one that eclipsed those. Things are changing…..not!

  12. I had the misfortune of living in Toronto for almost 3 years and then in Winnipeg for almost a year.
    When I returned to Vancouver I was asked what the summer was like in Winnipeg?
    “Don’t know, I was only there for 11 months.”
    It was a common line, but the key to the summers in Toronto, Winnipeg and Duluth (had to look it up) is the climate. Described as “humid continental”.
    Which means beastly hot and humid and as noted “Toronto, but with mosquitos.”
    No thanks!

    • Don’t forget the massive horse flies. They almost make the swarms of mosquitoes tolerable.

      Anyone going to Duluth for the climate is in for a rude awakening. Even 10°F warmer wouldn’t be all that great.

  13. Actual research is dead. Grants are only available to professors who either reanalyze data or do surveys.

  14. Having grown up in Texas and living in West Texas for years I have come to realize that there IS such a a thing as climate change. In the Summer, it gets hotter than hell, and in the Winter it gets COLDER than hell! That’s it! It has never changed, and likely never will. I’ve seen snow in July and 100 degrees on Christmas Day. Some Summers are so rainy your car gets stuck in the mud, while others are so dry even the cows tongues hang out! Weather will ALWAYS change, and man can’t even predict it with any certainty. The Climate Warmist’s want us to forget that this process has been going on since the earth formed, some 5 billion years ago, and it will continue on the same path for the NEXT 5 billion years, or until our Sun goes nova! The same amount of carbon present now has been here, more or less, since the beginning. Man is neither reducing NOR increasing it!

  15. Look carefully at the Global Surface Air Temperature line on the graph. It seems to be missing the dangerous temperature downturn from 1940 thru the 1970’s that had Climate scientists worried about falling into an ice age.

    The graph shows that it was actually warmer in the1970’s than in the 1940’s. How could scientists have confused a mild warming trend with a dangerous cooling trend back then?

    It’s almost as if someone has made some changes to the temperature record…enough change to change a dangerous cooling trend into a mild warming trend. I wonder what motivated them to do something so at odds with the historical record (about how obvious it was that the earth was getting colder really fast).

    • You clearly don’t understand. The raw data did show declining temperatures so the scientists of the day thought an ice age cometh but we now know better and that the readings were mistaken. That no one noticed at the time that it was actually getting hotter gives me a great idea. If we persuade nasa et al to falsify the graphs and show cooling now, no one will notice its getting hotter again and everyone will be happy.

    • That Hansen graph “data” on the Left axis was not derived from instrumental temperature records. The data plotted is a synthesized (reanalysis) derivation from a computer model of what temperatures would have been given CO2 forcing and known ice melt.
      The fact that instrumentally recorded temperature anaomalies do not track that hypothesis driven model output should invalidate the model. In any other branch of science, such disagreement would clearly indicate the hypothesis is wrong.

      But in Climate Science, instrumental data is considered wrong if it doesn’t fit the CO2 forcing hypothesis. And when it is convenient, as it is here for Hansen’s graphing purposes, the modeled temperature anomaly is the convenient deception to the layperson.

      • Yeah, I knew this temp record was synthesized (not enough noise and almost no typical decadal oscillations as seen in the real world).

        NASA and IPCC instrumental GAT plots used to show the significant temperature decline going into the 1970’s…after the warming trend from the 10’s to the 40’s. The peak of the warming in the 40’s is also now significantly lower than it was.

        I point these alterations out whenever I see an instance of the new and improved data. It gets some folks to start questioning the veracity of the data.

  16. This report must be true because they got all sciency and used sverdrup years:
    “Cumulative North Atlantic freshwater forcing in sverdrup years (Sv years) is 0.2 Sv years in 2014, 2.4 Sv years in 2050, and 3.4Sv years (its maximum) prior to 2060 (Fig. S14).”
    To save you all the trouble, the sverdrup is an oceanographic unit of flow equal to one million cubic meters per second. This is equal to the equally useless SI value of one cubic hectometer per second. Isn’t sciency wonderful? For domestic consumption a Sv is about 35 million cubic feet per second, or in dam flood or irrigation units, about 70 million acre feet per day. Multiply that by days in the year. You can flood irrigate lots of rice with that, if it wasn’t salt water.

  17. All those Canadians north of Duluth should start raising the prices of their houses, as they can expect a flood of Yanks desperately fleeing northward to them once Duluth is filled up.

    Yet Trudeau and his government are still preaching Global Apocalypse.

    Snort.

  18. Must see video – Mini AOC offering advice on climate change:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wt6IG1UBPJE

    “I also want to talk about socialism because socialism is so amazing. Like, socialism is actually short for social media. I do social media, so I’m a socialist.”

    “Three of the most successful countries in the world are socialists, too. Venezuela, Facebook and Twitter are all very socialist countries. I have a lot of friends who moved to America from Facebook.”

  19. This defies basic physics. Start with ice and apply heat. The ice warms until it reaches 0C. Then it stays at 0C as it melts. It doesn’t drop below. Then when all the ice is melted the water continues to warm. Simple as that. If the melting caused the temperature to drop below 0C the melting would stop. His graph is nonsense.

    • I think when he got his ear pierced the technical slipped and punched a hole in his temple …

  20. Bob Dylan survived almost 6 years in Duluth… Met his first concert arranger, Izzy Young some 15 years ago in Stockholm, where he, Izzy, was living. Sadly, I just found out he died in February this year…

  21. So what dedicated climate survivalists really need to do is buy their house in Duluth or Boulder, but also take an option on a well elevated property on a warm Caribbean island, in case James Hansen is right about the decades of extreme cold.

    Or just buy a solar and/or wind powered icebreaking houseboat in Duluth!
    (And be sure to have a copy of “Waterworld” and “The Day After Tomorrow” to guide you through those uncertain times.)

  22. I’ve said this before and I will say it again. The little ice age ended around 1850. The average world temperature has reportedly increased by only 0.8 degrees C since 1850. Is it considered to be unusual for the earth to warm slightly following the end of a little ice age? Common sense tells me that a small amount of warming as a result the rebound from the LIA would be within expectations.

  23. You know, give the guy a break about sending people to the U.S. -Canadian border area. Maybe he’s a big partier. Look at where the most drunk cities are. Most of those aren’t that far from Duluth, MN. Death from cirrhosis of the liver will come before the climate catastrophes.

    20 DRUNKEST CITIES IN AMERICA

    Appleton, Wisconsin
    Oshkosh-Neenah, Wisconsin
    Green Bay, Wisconsin
    Madison, Wisconsin
    Fargo, North Dakota
    La Crosse-Onalaska, Wisconsin
    Fond du Lac, Wisconsin
    Ames, Iowa
    Eau Claire, Wisconsin
    Mankato-North Mankato, Minnesota
    Wausau, Wisconsin
    Sheboygan, Wisconsin
    Missoula, Montana
    Grand Forks, North Dakota
    Racine, Wisconsin
    Janesville-Beloit, Wisconsin
    Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wisconsin
    Lincoln, Nebraska
    Iowa City, Iowa
    Corvallis, Oregon

    • Sean, you could have told us that in 1970. That way I would have known to go to Oregon State University instead of Portland State University.

  24. “The critical issue is whether human-spurred ice sheet mass loss can be approximated as an exponential process during the next few decades. Such nonlinear behavior depends upon amplifying feedbacks, which, indeed, our climate simulations reveal in the Southern Ocean. …”
    ___________________________________________________

    needs suspension, shock absorbers:

    https://www.google.com/search?client=ms-android-samsung&ei=p-a8XNDNEuKyrgTk4qXgAg&q=suspension+shock+absorber&oq=suspension+shock+absorber&gs_l=mobile-gws-wiz-serp.

    hopefully our system “Planet” has something like that.

    otherwise it would have to be retrofitted.

    • In climate modeling, it is critically important to program in such non-linear, amplifying feedbacks. That way your model will show non-linear, amplifying feedbacks when run. You can then write a paper showing future non-linear, amplifying feedbacks will occur in the Southern Ocean.

      Upon such evidence, our leaders are willing to fundamentally alter our society, economy and energy systems. And we will have AOC as Supreme Leader by universal acclamation soon.

  25. The average temperature in Duluth is 3.7 degrees C colder than Minneapolis. A person worried about a 2 degree difference is going to be looking a lot closer to home than any of the alarmists would be willing to admit. A ‘climate refugee’ from Austin wouldn’t even have to go as far as Dallas to get that much of a change.

  26. All climate alarmists should be sent to live in Antartica, and given only T shirts and shorts for clothing. The rest of society can then try and set about saving them by buring fossil fuels.

  27. oh please please do this … would love to pick up some sweet southern acreage for pennies on the dollar …

  28. Re. Rom LONF, April 21 sty. Remember the film “” Solyent Green””.

    So lets see the Greens lead by example and reduce the Worlds population.

    But wait, they are needed to spread the word to the rest of us. They are far
    too important to die for their “Cause”.

    MJE VK5ELL

  29. Did anyone notice that the “models reveal” something amazing and disastrous? How exactly do they “reveal” this? Since when are general circulation models a source of “revelation”. The mind boggles.

    “Our calculated present energy imbalance of ∼ 0.8 W m−2 (Fig. 15b) is larger than the observed 0.58 ± 0.15 W m−2 during 2005–2010 (Hansen et al., 2011).”

    I hope everyone has been paying attention as to how that “imbalance” has been determined. The measured imbalance is far larger than that and they have to make several assumptions and adjustments to refine the value and “find the missing heat”. When all is said and calculated the imbalance they conveniently have is ~0.8 Watts/sq m. That is based on a actual measurement imbalance on the order of 50 W. They “account for” 49.2. What is the uncertainty of that remaining 0.8 W?

    There is no “observed” 0.58 W imbalance from 2005-2010. What a crock. There are observations plus numerous assumptions and corrections and there is no way the uncertainty propagated through those adjustments can be only 0.15 W/m2. How can they determine the energy flux in out of the entire planet to within 150 milliwatts per square metre for five years?

    Yeah, and my grandma designs X-Box games.

    Consider: the incoming solar energy is about 1361 W/m^2. They are effectively claiming to have a precision of 0000.00 ±0.004 W/^2 or better over the whole planetary disk over five years.

    From millions of measurements each with its own uncertainty they come up with a propagated uncertainty on the order of a couple of hundred milliwatts? For those who want to try this at home, take the uncertainty for any of this measurements, square it, multiply the result by a million for each million readings, the take the square root of the result. That’s the propagated uncertainty.

    The speculation about the non-linear melting is purely that – speculation. With both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets growing at present, they have no idea if sea levels will drop slightly during the coming 80 years, or continue their slow rise. No idea at all. Neither do I

    They do not know enough to inform policy. Neither do I. The difference is I am not afraid to say so.

  30. I demand proof that every day, people are e-mailing an unknown architect professor for advice on which city will have the best climate. I don’t believe that.

    • I suspect it’s a lot like when an Instagram model says, “A lot of you have been asking about my skin care routine…”

  31. The strategy of moving to a cold-weather city so that the warming you experience in the future is beneficial seems sound, initially. But those cities currently require high levels of energy consumption to survive. As grid energy becomes unreliable in a futile effort to fight climate change, those cities will freeze before they have a chance to benefit from global warming.

  32. Why do most people who retire in the US move to Arizona or Florida. I, for one, would welcome a few days longer summer.

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