Weather, not climate – French Fry Shortage looms

Mark Albright, former Washington State Climatologist writes:

Due to the cold snowy late winter weather in eastern Washington and Oregon we may experience a french fry shortage this summer.

Late potato planting could affect french fry supply

By Anna King

Excerpts:

A bit north of Pasco, Washington, circle irrigation machines fan out in the distance, dark skeletons against the dirty snow and matching sky. Ed Schneider has grown french-fry-making potatoes here for 40 years. But this year, America’s fries are on the line.

“I mean, this is unheard of,” Schneider said. “We usually plant the last couple days of February and, for sure, [are] going by March 1. There’s been some other years when we’re delayed three, four days, but never four weeks.”

The fertile fields in Washington and Oregon are just now drying out from severe winter snow, and potato farmers like Schneider are a month behind in planting. A cool spring — along with this late start — could throw Schneider’s yields off by between 30 and 40 percent. “We need some warm,” he said.

American potatoes are grown on a precise and tight schedule. Northwest farmers grow about 70 percent of the potatoes for the nation’s french fries, as well as other processed potato products like hash browns and tater tots, according to Chris Voigt, head of the Washington State Potato Commission.

Source/full story: Marketplace

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Neo
April 11, 2019 11:14 am

This may, in fact, cut into my vegan diet of French fries and beer

RACookPE1978
Editor
April 11, 2019 11:21 am

American potatoes are grown on a precise and tight schedule. Northwest farmers grow about 70 percent of the potatoes for the nation’s french fries, as well as other processed potato products like hash browns and tater tots, according to Chris Voigt, head of the Washington State Potato Commission.

It is a little bit more complicated than this simplified “mainstream media” summary. As usual.

The south-eastern Idaho and northern Utah-eastern Oregon-eastern Washington potato growing areas track a metric known as the “5 inch soil temperature” twice a day. (It’s published in every local newspaper, broadcast every hour on local radio stations, monitored by “official sites” across the region. Think of a coastal radio station listing the daily high and low tides.)

In the spring, the 5 inch soil temperature gradually gets higher and higher. At a certain point in each valley, the soil is “warm enough” to begin plowing and planting. (Soil is frozen too hard in the winter to plow, to plant.)
Through the summer growing season, the 5 inch soil temperature (and local rain fall/irrigation levels) are a very good predictor of the potato size and thus the fall potato futures markets and the farmer’s yearly profits.

As the weather cools each fall in each valley in each region, the 5 inch soil temperature gets colder. The ground isn’t frozen yet, but the potatoes are getting firmer as the soil around them is colder.
At some point, the potatoes are firm enough to be pulled up without damage, and the soil is not yet frozen hard enough that they can’t be harvested.

Actual 5 inch Soil Temperature is a vital economic measure up there.
Loose predictions of disaster due to global warming/snow and ice scare stories? Not so much value.

Reply to  RACookPE1978
April 11, 2019 1:08 pm

Plus 1,000 RACook!

John F. Hultquist
Reply to  RACookPE1978
April 11, 2019 6:33 pm

Some home gardeners place potatoes on the ground and cover them with straw or other mulch.
Harvest requires moving the straw and looking for them.
More commonly though, much of the root system and the potatoes are in the top 5 inches that RACook explains.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  John F. Hultquist
April 12, 2019 3:55 am

I tried the straw in car tyres, and into peastraw bales also, not good. went mucky.
but they do ok in barkchips and dried grass cuttings with a bit of dirt throw into the mix in large pots/20litre buckets with drain holes etc

PaulH
April 11, 2019 12:43 pm

Children won’t know what french fries are.

April 11, 2019 1:02 pm

More scaremongering from the fear merchants.

“Late potato planting could affect french fry supply By Anna King
…could throw Schneider’s yields off by between 30 and 40 percent. “We need some warm,” he said.

American potatoes are grown on a precise and tight schedule.”

Exactly whose french fries are in danger here?

Why doesn’t Anna King go for the real fear in the fresh potato market?
Anna should proclaim doom and gloom on Vodka production.

1) “Schneider’s yields off by between 30 and 40 percent”. That is Schneider’s problem! Not the potato market!
* a) Washington and Oregon are not the sole locations for potatoes, nor even french fried potatoes!
* b) It appears that Anna is trying to rekindle the fear of another potato famine; false on many fronts.
* c) Schneider’s 30-40% will barely make a blip in overall potato harvests.

“American potatoes are grown on a precise and tight schedule”; welcome to the natural world toots!
Nature is not kind nor patient and will happily starve people if they get into a fallacious belief regarding hard dates or worse, silly expectations for regular crops.

It occurs to me that as much as I despise potato beetles, nonetheless, I will plant some potatoes this year. Just in case the panicky Anna’s of the world start paying high prices for potatoes.

Grant
April 11, 2019 2:09 pm

I do love sweet potato fries so I’m good.

April 11, 2019 3:55 pm

Warmistas and Alarmists please note that Washington and Oregon farmers are saying: “We need some warm,” or no more fries.

SAMURAI
April 11, 2019 5:44 pm

One year doesn’t make a trend, however, a 50-year Grand Solar Minimum has likely already started and the Pacific, Atlantic and Arctic oceans are in (or soon will be) their respective 30-year cool cycles.

Either of these phenomena cause global cooling, but when they’re concurrent, the cooling effect could be significant.

During the Wolf GSM (1280~1350) severe famines from frost loss, low precipitation, and short growing seasons created unprecedented famines which wiped out 25% of Europe’s population….

Severe world-wide famines were also prevalent during the Sporer and Maunder GSMs.

It’ll be interesting to see what happens over the next 10 years.

Jeff
April 11, 2019 5:59 pm

I always plant mine when the dandelions pop up.

Robert of Ottawa
April 11, 2019 6:27 pm

But I thought the upcoming French Fry shortage was due to Brexit

John F. Hultquist
April 11, 2019 6:40 pm

The southeast part of Washington State had plenty of snow and winds, so big drifts.
Much of the US West got plenty of snow. To the northwest of the area mentioned,
snow and irrigation water are on the low side.
As many have noted, this is not going to be a serious issue region wide.
That doesn’t help those farms that may suffer — and that won’t be known until
the season shakes out.

william Johnston
April 11, 2019 7:07 pm

Are potato farmers becoming another victim class???

RoHa
April 11, 2019 11:21 pm

DOOMED!