Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Despite the poor initial reception, politicians and pundits are rallying around green socialism, they are still looking for a way to make the green new deal seem acceptable to the general public.
Fighting climate change may be easier than we think
By Geoffrey Heal
Updated 0253 GMT (1053 HKT) February 13, 2019…
The Green New Deal, spearheaded by New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Ed Markey of Massachusetts, has garnered attention for its ambitious goal of completely shifting to renewable and zero-emission energy over a decade.
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Take the United States as an example. Wind and solar power are now on average the least expensive ways of generating electricity. In some locations, wind and solar energy prices are as little as one-third the cost of coal. Even without including the contribution of coal to global warming, it is simply no longer a cost-effective energy source. Wind and solar are now economically sounder investments.
The United States is working on that, too. Power from windy or sunny days can now be stored in batteries, which has been a tremendous contributing factor to the reduction in the price of renewable energy sources. In addition, there is hydropower, which is renewable, and nuclear energy, which is carbon-free. Both sources are not intermittent, meaning they can be relied upon for constant power, and can complement battery storage and provide backup to renewables. As the Green New Deal gains steam, there is also further hope for an even more concerted economic transition to clean energy jobs and infrastructure.
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I estimate it would take a gross investment in renewable power plants, extra grid capacity, and storage capacity of about $3.3 trillion over the next 20-30 years (US GDP is about $20 trillion). But the cost is not really all chargeable to the transition to renewables. All our coal plants are old and will have to be replaced well before 2050. This is also true of many of our gas and nuclear plants, regardless of the movement to go carbon-free. That would offset the cost associated with transitioning by about $1 trillion.
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Read more: https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/12/opinions/climate-change-opinion-heal/index.html
3.3 Trillion dollars is a lot of money.
If you spent a million dollars every day since the birth of Christ until today, you would still be nowhere near to spending 3.3 Trillion dollars.
In the 1950s US scientists who developed the first atomic bomb calculated the cost of launching a manned starship mission at 3% of the speed of light to Alpha Centauri using known technology at 10% of US GDP, $2 trillion in today’s money.
The sheer waste, the money already spent, the money being demanded by climate action advocates – future historians will wonder how we could have been so stupid.
Power from windy or sunny days can now be stored in batteries,
===????
From personal experience living off the grid for 15 years, current battery technology is not fit for purpose due to high price, the extremely short cycle life and the limitation to charging and discharging.
You get 3 years out of current batteries if they are cycled daily for solar power. A lot less if you charge or discharge too heavily.
A gallon of gasoline and the container to store it costs $ 10. The equivalent energy stored in a battery costs $ 10,000 for the battery.
” Take the United States as an example. Wind and solar power are now on average the least expensive ways of generating electricity. In some locations, wind and solar energy prices are as little as one-third the cost of coal. ”
This is a bogus argument – whjen utiities are required to buy wind or solar whenever its available, the wind
and solar farms have 100% demand, but the wind/solar power forces reduction in the purchase of coal (or nuclear) power and the cost of the units of power they produce goes up. Cost estimates by wind proponents are always pure fantasy – just three weeks ago a wide study of windfarms described the loss of capacity by turbines and a lifespan only about half that promised, Since the construction of the turbines is the greatest expense and it largely determines the cost of wind power. What utilities pay is irrelevant. Unreliable power, like wind and solar, is ALWAYS cheaper because of its low value – it cannot be controlled. And, unbeknownst to this stupid article, batteries STORE energy, they do not produce it. The wind can dies down for weeks, the sun not shine for days or weeks, far beyond the capacity of the size batteries they are talking about. And , of course, you’ll have to replenish the batteries’ power, using what? The need is for backup reliable power. But it would have to have capacity as great as the unreliable wind and solar. If that backup power were molten salt then why would there be any need for wind/solar at all?
If that backup power were molten salt then why would there be any need for wind/solar at all?
Wind and solar at least exist in commercial operation, molten salt *never has*. You might as well say if that backup power were unicorn farts then why would there be any need for wind/solar at all? You can talk about how great molten salt is *AFTER* you get one into commercial operation, until then it’s just vaporware that is as useful as unicorn farts.
John:
I believe molten salts are used at a number of concentrated solar plants are they not? I found numerous websites that mention molten salts being used at the Ivanpah and Tonopah solar facilities.
Not that I support these facilities. I seem to recall reading that Ivanpah has not lived up to its billing for energy generation. They ended up having to supplement the solar energy production with natural gas if I recall correctly. Plus the birds they fry in midair. And I believe I recall reading that they are also aviation hazards because the sun shining off of all those mirrors can blind pilots flying nearby.
CD in Wisconsin, the “molten salts” we are discussing is NUCLEAR REACTORs not solar plants. Two different things.
But we don’t have 20 to 30 years.
According to AOC, the world will end in less than 12.
But just in case, if the world does not end in 12 years, we try the best to make sure that it will end in 20 to 30 years! 🙂
cheers
We’ve protected our phoney baloney jobs for another 10 to 20 years.
There’s quite a situation out there. An office courrier boy has to present more titles and diplomas than a politician. There’s no minimal qualification requirement for policymakers.
Imagine the following pre-flight announcement:
-And now ladies and gentlemen, wee will proceed to the democratic election of the first officer and captain amongst you, our beloved passengers.
Sounds funny because it’s very unlikely to happen.
However this is exactly how it works in real life. Those handling the destiny of entire nations need just to be elected. No other competences required.
Are we witnessing the works of natural selection ? Where only civilizations with less than a certain fraction of voting imbeciles are fit to survive ?
They make claims that wind and solar power is cheap. If that was true no government intervention would be necessary, only wind and solar plants would be built, for purely commercial reasons.
The fact that the government has to rig the market in favour of wind and solar, shows that they are not cost effective.
In some locations, wind and solar energy prices are as little as one-third the cost of coal.
In know in Germany renewables are about $0.35/Kwh vs US electricity average of about $0.125/Kwh. In Texas, however, which has a lot of wind generation, cost is only $0.085/Kwh. Can I assume the state picks up the difference?
Since the inception of “Energiewende” in 2010 there has been virtually no net reduction in annual CO2 emissions despite the cost:
http://industry.eiu.com/asset_images/1215236505.GIF
Surely those who can’t afford the new, improved, higher cost electrons, have cut back on their usage of the same?
Without better storage systems wind and solar energy will NEVER replace today’s base load generators. I have never seen any data on how many acres/square miles of land will be needed to build all the wind and solar facilities needed to meet the demand. How many more high voltage power lines will be needed to carry the power long distances from where the wind is blowing to those locations with no wind that day? How many acres of land is needed for those power line easements? Lefties are not fans of suburban sprawl but this will be a HUGE land grab and not very pretty when done.
This is NOT what “from sea to shining sea” was intended to mean:
Many liberals are making the claim that conservatives are skeptical about the need to switch to renewable power as a means to stop climate change because conservatives, as a whole, are illiterate in science.
Can anyone post a link to a study reporting on the difference between science literacy of conservatives and liberals?
My impression from my college years was that conservatives prefer to pursue science degrees while liberals prefer to pursue liberal arts degrees. One exception is the medical field – which may explain why so many clinical studies in that field can not be duplicated.
SR
Wind and solar power are now on average the least expensive ways of generating electricity
Excellent, so we can eliminate all subsidies and tax credits and mandates for wind and solar, after all if it’s the least expensive way to generate electricity then there’s no need for government incentives as people will naturally prefer to pay less and thus will flock to wind and solar all on their own with need of government handouts.
By my estimates, it’s LOT worse than that if the global picture is taken into account.
$250 billion pa is the current renewables spend, mostly on wind and solar. It’s been over $200bn for the best part of a decade. For that, as of 2016, 1% of energy has been transitioned.
Therefore, to reach 100% renewables will cost in the ballpark of $200 trillion. Not including batteries for storage.
Instead, we could give every homeless individual in the USA their own personal Trump Tower. 😉
If you want to destroy the United States of America as we know it, does it really make a difference if it occurs in the next 10 years, on in the next 30 years?
The difference is AOC says the world will end in 12 – fat lot of good trying to stop the end of the world if your plan to stop the end of the world will take longer (20-30 years) than the time remaining (12 years).
20 years ago we were told that we had only 10 years before Climate Change became irreversible. Now we are told that we have 12 years til Thermageddon. This means that in 20 more years we’ll have 14 years until the end of the world. Therefore, we’ll have to wait at least 100 years before we’ll have enough time to save the earth.
I say we wait.
“Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”
― Napoleon Bonaparte
Sadly, the next Democrat elected U.S. President will “declare an emergency” and
implement all kinds of actions to advance the New Green Deal.
How much to launch this guy to Alpha Centauri? Just what I’ve been waiting for- a Professor of Social Engineering to explain practical economics to me. Here’s my bet that the guy can’t even balance his own chequebook.
They can call me when the factories that manufacture windmills and solar panels are powered entirely by windmills and solar panels. Until then, they should keep quiet.
Hah! I can hear the planning board having a meeting to discuss the land purchase plan: ” here are the 25 acres for the production facility. And here is the 500 acres for the solar power plant.”
SR
My humble request of all who believe that we only have 12 years left is to assign all your remaining assets over to me in 12 years. Go ahead and fill out the paperwork now. Shouldn’t be a problem if you believe it is true.
Party hearty. After all, there’s only 12 years left. But I’ll take my chances that I’ll be around more than 12 years and that there will be enough of those who think it will be all over that won’t manage to spend everything they have. If a few million screw up and have some twenties in their pockets and a few bucks left in the bank, then I’ll probably come out a bit ahead. If I’m wrong and the world does end in 12 years, they can have my assets as I certainly won’t be needing them.
I’m not sure what I’m going to do with all those electric cars, but the additional cash will be welcome.
The “Green New Deal”-s rebuilding of all buildings [for free] proposal will cause massive gentrification .. unless the rebuilt buildings are done badly.
Ahh .. there’s the secret.
#GreenNuclearDeal
If climate change crisis is true, then the only realistic way to address it is with nuclear power.
Here is an opportunity to use Green New Deal to change social perception.
Here it is on twitter.
https://twitter.com/subschneider/status/1096110191718879233?fbclid=IwAR0MoJww8HHcFUZbkVGa8vKB8lMM6ugi0i7cJiony8xe3HEEcUzLyw7xQ8E
I don’t understand how people as dumb as Occasional-Cortex get elected in the first place.
They run as a (D) in a predominately (D) voting district. I once worked with a guy who refused to even consider a Republican candidate (despite the Republican candidate being more in-line with his social and economic views) because his family has always voted democrat and he too would always vote democrat. He was the type of person who’s vote would elect people as dumb as AOC just because she had the (D) after her name.
I’ve met quite a few like that. FDR saved the country in the Depression and personally won WWII. Therefore they were going to vote for Democrats forever.
I’m sorry, but old retirees on Medicare and Medicaid and Social Security are going to need all of that 3.3 trillion dollars. And a lot more.
No soup for you.
When will reason return to scientists? CO2 only out gases when something becomes warmer or greener. There is no way in hell it is the other way around. Oceans warm due to a combination of orbital mechanics which effects distance from the Sun and angle, and layering up of ocean temperatures. A warmer ocean surface out gases CO2. A warmer ocean in turn warms the land. Increasing greening results in more outgasing of CO2. No wonder we are in a beneficial increasing atmospheric CO2 condition.
Bottom line? CO2 increase is a result, not a cause.
Kindergarten students can understand this.
“Climate change” a mere excuse to huge transfer of public money
GreenNewDeal Astonishes- Vast $$ for VCs, “New Banks”, Fed Reserve, Nat’l “Smart Grid”, No Oversight