The air is starting to feel crisp, the leaves are changing, and the aroma of pumpkin spice lattes are filling your favorite coffee shops. This can only mean one thing – it’s time for my annual post on NOAA’s expectations for the upcoming winter! And once again, one of the key players is found in the tropical Pacific. In contrast with the last twoyears, when we were looking at potential La Niña development, this year we’re waiting to see if El Niño will arrive in time to impact winter. Without further ado, let’s take a look at NOAA’s 2018-19 Winter Temperature and Precipitation Outlook and see how ENSO has affected this forecast.
As usual: Outlooks are probabilistic, so no guarantees
Wait, just one more thing before jumping to the outlooks. I again remind readers (if this seems repetitive, well, it is) that these forecasts are provided in terms of probabilities (% chance) for below, near, or above average outcomes with the maps showing only the most likely outcome (1). Because the probabilities on these and all CPC outlook maps are less than 100%, there is no guarantee you will see temperature or precipitation departures from normal that match the color on the map. As we’ve explained in earlier blog posts, even when one outcome is more likely than another, there is still always a chance that a less favored outcome will occur. And in fact, for the forecasts to be reliable (a critical part of a probabilistic forecast), less likely outcomes MUST happen from time to time.
Outlook for 2018/19 winter
Finally, the outlooks! Both the temperature and precipitation outlooks depend to a certain extent on typical El Niño impacts, but forecasters think a weak El Niño event is most likely. This means that despite the potential for El Niño, confidence in this outlook is less than we had than during recent strong events like in the winter of 2015/16 (more on confidence below).
This lower confidence is reflected in fairly modest probabilities for the temperature outlook, with the largest probabilities only between 50-60% for above normal temperatures in Hawaii, Alaska, and parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. The other shaded regions on the map indicate probabilities between 33-50%, meaning that the forecast only tilts modestly towards above normal temperatures. And while no areas of the country are favored to have below normal temperatures, it certainly wouldn’t be surprising for some areas to experience below normal temperatures this winter. This would be most likely in the white areas labeled EC (more on that later).
Places where the forecast odds favor a much colder than usual winter (blue colors) or much warmer than usual winter (red), or where the probability of a cold winter, a warm winter, or a near-normal winter are all equal (white). The darker the color, the stronger the chance of that outcome (not the bigger the departure from average). NOAA Climate.gov map, based on data from NOAA CPC.
Now that the observed conditions are a little colder than their October mild winter forecast, NOAA seem to be blaming global warming and warmer oceans for the deep freeze.
Hadn’t we a British Met Office forecast for a mild winter years ago and England ws hidden under snow and ice ?
. In September 2008, it forecast a trend of mild winters: the following winter turned out to be the coldest for a decade. Then its notorious promise of a ‘barbecue summer’ was followed by unrelenting rain. Last year, it forecast a ‘drier than average’ spring — before another historic deluge that was accompanied by the coldest temperatures for 50 years. Never has the Met Office had more scientists and computing power at its disposal — yet never has it seemed so baffled by the British weather.
Saying “I predict a mild winter” implies a level of knowledge and understanding that is not justified.
A more realistic prediction might be, “Based on how things look today, a milder than average winter is more likely that a colder winter. But there’s still a wide range of possible outcomes. Stuff can happen. For example, if the wall of the polar vortex breaks down and polar winds circulate in the Southern latitudes, then you’re in for a deep freeze.”
November, December, and the first half of January were mild, but I guess one cold snap makes winter unbearable now. I should also mention that it’s been warm and sunny out west for the last week or so which falls in line with NOAA’s seasonal forecast 😀
It would be rather nice if Piers Corbyn could persuade his brother to give him public support and try to move a resistant parliament to accept that global warming isn’t happening, and that Mr Trump has taken the correct line in this silly debate. Maybe the truth would begin to get through and the huge financial waste being expended on this scientific hoax might be put to the betterment of the country’s standard of living. I have to accept however that it would be difficult to persuade the likes of Mr Gove that he has been wrong all along in spending so much money on such fraudulent science.
NOAA is blaming the greenhouse effect. Weird greenhouse. NOAA ought to have its budget cut 50%. This isn’t the first forecast that they totally botched. Weirdly, always predicting warmer winter rather than colder. Weird.
More like irresponsible. People’s livelihood and lives depend on long and short range forecasts to be accurate. What a scam climatology is. Voodoo at best. Not sure why there isn’t a consequence for their ineptness. Seems to be the new norm. The more inept, the more entrenched and safe the employment is. Other than politicians, these lack luster zero producers of substance get paid year in and year out for their garbage. Rant off. lol
If my livelihood depended on weather forecasts I would subscribe to Weather Bell or other commercial forecasters. Bastardi had a useful winter forecast starting in August of last year. His analog sources predicted this while NOAA models were predicting a warm winter 2 months later. Some are claiming winter is over. Bastardi is saying to enjoy the warmup. Bitter cold will return and last perhaps into April.
In it, he describes how the centrally planned farming system “operated.” The party decided when to plant and how to plant, all of it plainly wrong to the peasants who were doing the actual farming. Anyone contradicting their direction was shot. As the farmers knew it would be, the resulting crop was bad. They were roaming the countryside looking for anything that could be eaten, even slightly. Beyond horrific. But the all knowing party kept doing it that way, since they couldn’t be wrong – Kim would have had the ‘experts’ shot.
I’ll bet $100 that there is no follow-up story in the MSM on the prior story comparing the Farmers Almanac prediction (brutal cold) vs. the Old Farmers Almanac (warm). In fact they dug up the Old Farmers version to counter the other one when it came out.
MSM: Main Stream Motto “Propagnada wouldn’t be if it were true. Never back down, never give an inch, never admit mistakes, never fall off the narrative even in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.”
-Warmer-than-normal conditions are anticipated across much of the northern and western U.S., with the greatest likelihood in Alaska and from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains.
-The Southeast, Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic all have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures.
-No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures.
Perhaps the best use for this NOAA Report is as a FIRE starter for residents of the Midwest. I suggest crumpling-up hard copies of the report placed under dry kindling to keep from FREEZING to DEATH this “mild” winter
Well, the last bullet point is one they got away with.
However, to correct @Bill above, we don’t need to cut the NOAA budget by 50%. We should cut it down to $0.06. One cent for the coin to flip, and a nickel for the “scientist’s” time…
They assume correctly that MSM will not publish any articles or comments that mention their erroneous forecast, but will jump on their ex-post explanation of how global warming caused the extreme cold. As an economist I learned early that journalists would always remember my forecasts and be quick to point out my misses. Climate “scientists“ are not subject to thee same scrutiny. Indeed, is there any other field where “experts” can make one forecast (global warming will mean less snow in the Northeast) and when that fails forecast more snow without retracting the original forecast.
““experts” can make one forecast (global warming will mean less snow in the Northeast) and when that fails forecast more snow without retracting the original forecast.”
That’s why
Naomi Oreskes invented “the merchants of doubt”.
When they’re always wrong then there is no truth at all and they’re always RIGHT!
That’s humorous but not certain. Consider 100 people where 98 are of the stupid average intelligence and 1 each are smarter and stupider than the stupid average. In that case only 1% is stupider than stupid average.
ResourceGuy
January 31, 2019 2:09 pm
Where is John Holdren when you need “official”, “sciency” obfuscation?
John is in Washington, still preaching his desire to put sterilization drugs into other peoples water systems.
Cheers,
Speed
Bryan A
January 31, 2019 2:11 pm
And in fact, for the forecasts to be reliable (a critical part of a probabilistic forecast), less likely outcomes MUST happen from time to time.
so I guess if your predictions are wrong 97% of the time, your MODELS are doing REALLY good
“… less likely outcomes MUST happen from time to time” for the probabilistic forecast model to be considered reasonable; but there is a big difference between reasonable and reliable. The forecast can only be reliable if it is useful … so far it has not been.
(AND if analysis shows that the less likely outcome consistently shows up on only one side of the forecast (as cold) you can be pretty sure that the forecast is somehow biased.)
+1! If their seasonal forecasts were good most of the time with some occasional failure, that would be a good excuse. But the truth is the opposite. Their most likely outcomes are the ones that ONLY happen from time to time.
ResourceGuy
January 31, 2019 2:13 pm
Next time just go with coin toss in each region or maybe a government shutdown.
If I recall, the that the Farmers Almanac was more accurate!
Aeneas
January 31, 2019 2:14 pm
Thanks for this post, it is nice to go to bed with a smile and a chuckle. Of course warmist will shrug it off and just push harder about how the models accurately predicts that we all will be using the oceans as hot tubs by 2100.
Tom Halla
January 31, 2019 2:15 pm
Oops! And they expect us to believe that forecasts 81 years out will be accurate, when they cannot do three months accurately?
Ah! But what they will say is that this is weather, which is unpredictable. What they are forecasting 81 years out is climate, which is entirely predictable.
Yes I know, it cracks me up every time I hear it, which sends them apoplectic.
ResourceGuy
January 31, 2019 2:15 pm
Add this to the list of functions that can be handled by AI in the future.
Joe Bastardi and Joe d’Aleo of Weatherbell are the best in the business. Their long-range winter forecast is looking good to date. NOAA and the NWS have a history of failed long-range winter forecasts – their warm bias has failed them repeatedly. This failure of the NWS is not new – see below.
Now THAT’S the weather map I’ve been predicting! I think the way to cure people of Global Warming Hysteria Syndrome is to freeze the bejaysus out of them – essentially get them to cool off, emotionally AND physically. It is impossible to say “global warming” when your teeth are chattering so hard it sounds like a jackhammer inside your head.
Below is the history of my “cold Curse” that I called down upon the Northeast USA and eastern Canada back in November. The Dept. of Homeland Security should understand that I really don’t create the weather, I just hang out with very competent weather forecasters.
Joe d’Aleo and I did this once before, prior to the brutal NE winter of 2014-15, We contacted the Energy Information Administration (EIA), which used Joe’s detailed Winter forecast to revise their total winter energy demand (based on the NWS winter forecast) upwards by 11%. Joe turned out to be correct, and we may have prevented considerable suffering. That is a huge amount of energy.
Holy crap that had better be one HOT month, but make that 2 months by my reckoning (spring doesn’t begin until March 21st).
Are we to expect the Tropical Vortex?
With all these vortices whirling about one can only determine that their logic is truly dizzying.
I stand corrected.
I hadn’t read the time frame…EGADS they only have one month to make up the shortfall.
This reminds me of the Southpark episode about global warming:
“Its going to happen two days before the day after tomorrow.”
How do you know that? The groundhog has not yet stuck his head out. So you can’t possibly know.
ALASTAIR GRAY
January 31, 2019 2:21 pm
Well I guess that guy put in a few caveats and maybes as any weather forecaster would , and you can’t get it right every time so my sympathies to the NOAA guy
We have a weatherman in England who made his reputation in 1987 by ruling out a hurricane 6 hours before it hit with massive damage as the worst storm for 300 years https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82hBNQSfros
However if you have global circulation models that infallibly underwrite the wisdom of blowing trillions of bucks on weather amelioration in 2100 then maybe they should be capable of building in a Jetstream wiggle or two over a 3 month period because don’t forget “THE SCIENCE IS SETTLED!!”
I remember that night very well. Pointless refusing it Michael. But to be fair to The Met Office, and Michael, of the time, they were criticised for over-stating potential risk in a bad weather forecasts, so they downplayed that storm a tad. Now everything is over-stated, worst evah etc, and now, not much happens.
Latitude
January 31, 2019 2:22 pm
“And in fact, for the forecasts to be reliable …….. less likely outcomes MUST happen from time to time.”
……..yep, that’ll work
]
David Hoopman
January 31, 2019 2:23 pm
“Do you trust a five-day forecast?”
—the late Dr. Reid Bryson, December 2006 (and no doubt 10,000 other times.)
“It seems to me that no soothsayer should be able to look another soothsayer without laughing.”
– Cicero
TonyL
January 31, 2019 2:23 pm
Here in New England, things have been very mild, with temps very moderate and a notable lack of snow. The polar vortex which has hit the Midwest so hard is just now getting to us and is pulling the temps all the way down to just about average for mid-winter.
If this keeps up for Feb, we will have a mild and lucky winter indeed.
We have been around these parts long enough to know better than to count on anything. But we can hope.
(Hope is not a Plan.)
I seem to remember something about some of the ski areas in VT and/or NH having a record early open this year? The mid-atlantic has been very cold, then mild, then cold , now a bit mild, so by no means warm overall and right in line with the Weatherbell prediction.
ALASTAIR GRAY
January 31, 2019 2:30 pm
Well I guess that guy put in a few caveats and maybes as any weather forecaster would , and you can’t get it right every time so my sympathies to the NOAA guy
We have a weatherman in England who made his reputation by ruling out a hurricane 6 hours before it hit with massive damage as the worst storm for 300 years https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82hBNQSfros
However if you have global circulation models that infallibly underwrite the wisdom of blowing trillions of bucks on weather amelioration in 2100 then maybe they should be capable of building in a Jetstream wiggle or two over a 3 month period because don’t forget “THE SCIENCE IS SETTLED!!”
Richard M
January 31, 2019 2:31 pm
I suspect the winter forecast was based on another forecast … for El Nino. It held for a couple of months and has now started to fade. So, in reality they got two forecasts wrong.
And you can bet your A..s the British propaganda broadcasting co can be relied up to come up with a brilliant anal-ysis…. (it’s the bit before the “ysis” that sums it up so well).
“So, it can be very cold where you live but the world as a whole could still be getting warmer.
And be in no doubt, says Tim Woolings, the world is continuing to warm.
As Chicago freezes, wildfires are raging in Australia which is in the grip of yet another blistering summer.
Image caption:- Fires burning dangerously close can be seen from a lodge in Miena, Australia
The 20 warmest years on record have all been in the past 22 years, with 2015 to 2018 making up the top four, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
And if that does not persuade you, check out these seven charts……
This will be cold comfort for those of you shivering in the Midwest but, says Tim Woolings, the icy air that engulfed you this week WOULD HAVE BEEN at least a degree colder had it not been for the warming that has already raised average winter temperatures in the arctic.”
do we get the Dad’s army song….
“Who do think you are kidding Mr Hitler”
“The 20 warmest years on record …… Lets remember the hiatus in there. These records are based on 0.01C with an error of +/- 0.05C. Until 2012 1935 was the warmest in NA.
One of the reported record readings came from a weyaher station that had been operational for about a year. I wouldn’t put too much store by the Australian BOM’s temperature record management.
i put almost zero trust in Boms forecasts or now fiddled beyond funny past records
i look at their charts 5day fcast and radar/sat maps
every one of them is different for the same damned day! on the same webpage
im looking gratefully at the enso chart here dropping toward neutral again and hoping it stays that way or lower
And until the early 1970’s they were ESTIMATED to the nearest 1/10 deg F (or C depending on where you were). ESTIMATED, meaning that the true temperature was somewhere within .2 to .3 degrees of what was recorded. To take data that sloppy and say the current global temperature is even 0.1 degrees higher than ever is pure dung. I know how it worked because I took observations in that era.
Of course recent years are the warmest, in general, as the Earth coming out of the Little Ice Age circa 1700 has been slowly warming these last 200-300 years, with some shorter term cooling cycles superimposed.
What is at issue is whether the rising CO2 will lead to catastrophe vs being a net neutral or benign process. (eg. longer growing cycles plus CO2 as plant food will likely help feed the world)—-overall a good for the whole biosphere.
And a margin of safety against the next glaciation
damp
January 31, 2019 2:38 pm
If someone claimed the ability to reduce the effects of the Polar Vortex, he’d be laughed out of town. But if he promised to alter the temperature of the entire planet over the next 100 years, he’d be given a grant.
The ‘warmer oceans produce more snow’ garbage is what sends me screaming. Warmer oceans may produce more moisture, but what produces the intense cold? Hint to NOAA: not warmer oceans.
harry
January 31, 2019 2:53 pm
Rest assured, in 20 years time this winter will be revised up and become one of the warmest winters evah!
Chaos shall not be predictable.
God must have a sense of humor. Predicting climate is not for humans especially the humans that threaten normal people that do not agree with them.
Hadn’t we a British Met Office forecast for a mild winter years ago and England ws hidden under snow and ice ?
Source
PS
Comments On UK Met Office 2008/2009 Winter Forecast by rpielke | March 2, 2009 · 7:00 am
Saying “I predict a mild winter” implies a level of knowledge and understanding that is not justified.
A more realistic prediction might be, “Based on how things look today, a milder than average winter is more likely that a colder winter. But there’s still a wide range of possible outcomes. Stuff can happen. For example, if the wall of the polar vortex breaks down and polar winds circulate in the Southern latitudes, then you’re in for a deep freeze.”
November, December, and the first half of January were mild, but I guess one cold snap makes winter unbearable now. I should also mention that it’s been warm and sunny out west for the last week or so which falls in line with NOAA’s seasonal forecast 😀
November was close to record cold for much of the US
PPS
Piers Corbyn – Met Office Winter Forecast is “Foolish babble from deluded charlatans and should be ignored”
It would be rather nice if Piers Corbyn could persuade his brother to give him public support and try to move a resistant parliament to accept that global warming isn’t happening, and that Mr Trump has taken the correct line in this silly debate. Maybe the truth would begin to get through and the huge financial waste being expended on this scientific hoax might be put to the betterment of the country’s standard of living. I have to accept however that it would be difficult to persuade the likes of Mr Gove that he has been wrong all along in spending so much money on such fraudulent science.
Prognosticators of all sorts without doxastic comittment, Damocles’ Sword of Truth hanging over their head, are to be ignored as ignorant touts.
doxastic. WOW!
Predicting the climate is the reason why God created dice.
NOAA is blaming the greenhouse effect. Weird greenhouse. NOAA ought to have its budget cut 50%. This isn’t the first forecast that they totally botched. Weirdly, always predicting warmer winter rather than colder. Weird.
You can count on it every year….NOAA is solidly in the global warming bag
They predict a warmer winter….the liberal media runs with it….it’s global warming
….they do not give one flying damn about accurate predictions..it’s all agenda and feed the story line
More like irresponsible. People’s livelihood and lives depend on long and short range forecasts to be accurate. What a scam climatology is. Voodoo at best. Not sure why there isn’t a consequence for their ineptness. Seems to be the new norm. The more inept, the more entrenched and safe the employment is. Other than politicians, these lack luster zero producers of substance get paid year in and year out for their garbage. Rant off. lol
They get paid tospout what their employers want them to spout, thye have no responibility whatsoever!
If my livelihood depended on weather forecasts I would subscribe to Weather Bell or other commercial forecasters. Bastardi had a useful winter forecast starting in August of last year. His analog sources predicted this while NOAA models were predicting a warm winter 2 months later. Some are claiming winter is over. Bastardi is saying to enjoy the warmup. Bitter cold will return and last perhaps into April.
The predictions and reaction to reality is similar to what has folks starving in NK, for one.
A book, “A river in darkness” is an autobiographical account of a man who escaped North Korea as a n adult after living there most of his life. (https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/masaji-ishikawa/a-river-in-darkness/) A harrowing account.
In it, he describes how the centrally planned farming system “operated.” The party decided when to plant and how to plant, all of it plainly wrong to the peasants who were doing the actual farming. Anyone contradicting their direction was shot. As the farmers knew it would be, the resulting crop was bad. They were roaming the countryside looking for anything that could be eaten, even slightly. Beyond horrific. But the all knowing party kept doing it that way, since they couldn’t be wrong – Kim would have had the ‘experts’ shot.
“Chaos shall not be predictable”
shall be your 11th commandment!
I’ll bet $100 that there is no follow-up story in the MSM on the prior story comparing the Farmers Almanac prediction (brutal cold) vs. the Old Farmers Almanac (warm). In fact they dug up the Old Farmers version to counter the other one when it came out.
MSM: Main Stream Motto “Propagnada wouldn’t be if it were true. Never back down, never give an inch, never admit mistakes, never fall off the narrative even in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.”
I was about to comment on that;-)
the Farmers Almanac won hands down!!!
There are more CYA disclaimers than a drug commercial in the Winter Outlook.
Yes, and the map accomplishes the subliminal message of mostly red shading too.
Exactly! The colors chosen are subliminally working the chosen magic. You’re getting sleepy….
Zzzzzzzzz…..
Here’s a better link.
https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/winter-outlook-favors-warmer-temperatures-for-much-of-us
With these bullet points:
-Warmer-than-normal conditions are anticipated across much of the northern and western U.S., with the greatest likelihood in Alaska and from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains.
-The Southeast, Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic all have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures.
-No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures.
Perhaps the best use for this NOAA Report is as a FIRE starter for residents of the Midwest. I suggest crumpling-up hard copies of the report placed under dry kindling to keep from FREEZING to DEATH this “mild” winter
Well, the last bullet point is one they got away with.
However, to correct @Bill above, we don’t need to cut the NOAA budget by 50%. We should cut it down to $0.06. One cent for the coin to flip, and a nickel for the “scientist’s” time…
They may as well add the following bullet point:
One or two cold week do not a winter make.
Do they really think that everybody else is stupid?
Yes.
Uh, gee, why would they think that?
Are most people shupid? Think of how stupid the average person is, and then realize that half of them are stupider than that.
They assume correctly that MSM will not publish any articles or comments that mention their erroneous forecast, but will jump on their ex-post explanation of how global warming caused the extreme cold. As an economist I learned early that journalists would always remember my forecasts and be quick to point out my misses. Climate “scientists“ are not subject to thee same scrutiny. Indeed, is there any other field where “experts” can make one forecast (global warming will mean less snow in the Northeast) and when that fails forecast more snow without retracting the original forecast.
““experts” can make one forecast (global warming will mean less snow in the Northeast) and when that fails forecast more snow without retracting the original forecast.”
That’s why
Naomi Oreskes invented “the merchants of doubt”.
When they’re always wrong then there is no truth at all and they’re always RIGHT!
That’s humorous but not certain. Consider 100 people where 98 are of the stupid average intelligence and 1 each are smarter and stupider than the stupid average. In that case only 1% is stupider than stupid average.
Where is John Holdren when you need “official”, “sciency” obfuscation?
John is in Washington, still preaching his desire to put sterilization drugs into other peoples water systems.
Cheers,
Speed
And in fact, for the forecasts to be reliable (a critical part of a probabilistic forecast), less likely outcomes MUST happen from time to time.
so I guess if your predictions are wrong 97% of the time, your MODELS are doing REALLY good
“… less likely outcomes MUST happen from time to time” for the probabilistic forecast model to be considered reasonable; but there is a big difference between reasonable and reliable. The forecast can only be reliable if it is useful … so far it has not been.
(AND if analysis shows that the less likely outcome consistently shows up on only one side of the forecast (as cold) you can be pretty sure that the forecast is somehow biased.)
+1! If their seasonal forecasts were good most of the time with some occasional failure, that would be a good excuse. But the truth is the opposite. Their most likely outcomes are the ones that ONLY happen from time to time.
Next time just go with coin toss in each region or maybe a government shutdown.
If I recall, the that the Farmers Almanac was more accurate!
Thanks for this post, it is nice to go to bed with a smile and a chuckle. Of course warmist will shrug it off and just push harder about how the models accurately predicts that we all will be using the oceans as hot tubs by 2100.
Oops! And they expect us to believe that forecasts 81 years out will be accurate, when they cannot do three months accurately?
Plus 1000
Tom Halla
Ah! But what they will say is that this is weather, which is unpredictable. What they are forecasting 81 years out is climate, which is entirely predictable.
Yes I know, it cracks me up every time I hear it, which sends them apoplectic.
Add this to the list of functions that can be handled by AI in the future.
Ask AI about the future of AI.
– if AI where ( artificial ) intelligent it would answere ‘wait for the future’ –
AI could handle it now. It would probably be better than ASS (Absolutely Stupid Sophistry).
Interesting that Joe Bastardi had this winter nailed in October.
He has a good methodology. Historical comparison and models without built in global warming.
Joe Bastardi and Joe d’Aleo of Weatherbell are the best in the business. Their long-range winter forecast is looking good to date. NOAA and the NWS have a history of failed long-range winter forecasts – their warm bias has failed them repeatedly. This failure of the NWS is not new – see below.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/01/29/polar-vortex-will-have-nearly-90-percent-of-us-below-freezing/#comment-2608985
[excerpt]
Now THAT’S the weather map I’ve been predicting! I think the way to cure people of Global Warming Hysteria Syndrome is to freeze the bejaysus out of them – essentially get them to cool off, emotionally AND physically. It is impossible to say “global warming” when your teeth are chattering so hard it sounds like a jackhammer inside your head.
Below is the history of my “cold Curse” that I called down upon the Northeast USA and eastern Canada back in November. The Dept. of Homeland Security should understand that I really don’t create the weather, I just hang out with very competent weather forecasters.
Joe d’Aleo and I did this once before, prior to the brutal NE winter of 2014-15, We contacted the Energy Information Administration (EIA), which used Joe’s detailed Winter forecast to revise their total winter energy demand (based on the NWS winter forecast) upwards by 11%. Joe turned out to be correct, and we may have prevented considerable suffering. That is a huge amount of energy.
“freeze the bejaysus out of them”….
Working in that…..
http://www.climate4you.com/images/NOAA%20SST-NorthAtlantic%20GlobalMonthlyTempSince1979%20With37monthRunningAverage.gif
You made no such prediction and the relatively mild winter in the NE continues!
We still have a month to go.
Holy crap that had better be one HOT month, but make that 2 months by my reckoning (spring doesn’t begin until March 21st).
Are we to expect the Tropical Vortex?
With all these vortices whirling about one can only determine that their logic is truly dizzying.
Had one last year, it ate Mexico Beach Florida.
Meteorological winter is a three month period that runs from Dec 1st to the end of February.
December was pretty warm in the Twin Cities.
D
November was so cold that I fished on a southern MN lake with 6” of ice on 11/30.
Cold indeed.
Last spring White Bear Lake tied the record late ice out date (back to the 20s). In 2016 it set the all time early ice out record.
See the pattern? Me either.
I stand corrected.
I hadn’t read the time frame…EGADS they only have one month to make up the shortfall.
This reminds me of the Southpark episode about global warming:
“Its going to happen two days before the day after tomorrow.”
I see Bastardi is predicting a cold February. (can we mention him here?)
What shortfall?
How do you know that? The groundhog has not yet stuck his head out. So you can’t possibly know.
Well I guess that guy put in a few caveats and maybes as any weather forecaster would , and you can’t get it right every time so my sympathies to the NOAA guy
We have a weatherman in England who made his reputation in 1987 by ruling out a hurricane 6 hours before it hit with massive damage as the worst storm for 300 years
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82hBNQSfros
However if you have global circulation models that infallibly underwrite the wisdom of blowing trillions of bucks on weather amelioration in 2100 then maybe they should be capable of building in a Jetstream wiggle or two over a 3 month period because don’t forget “THE SCIENCE IS SETTLED!!”
ALASTAIR GRAY
Michael Fish. He still maintains he didn’t say what he said, or something like that.
The fact is the Met office missed it by a country mile.
And that would be Britain, not just England.
I remember that night very well. Pointless refusing it Michael. But to be fair to The Met Office, and Michael, of the time, they were criticised for over-stating potential risk in a bad weather forecasts, so they downplayed that storm a tad. Now everything is over-stated, worst evah etc, and now, not much happens.
“And in fact, for the forecasts to be reliable …….. less likely outcomes MUST happen from time to time.”
……..yep, that’ll work
]
“Do you trust a five-day forecast?”
—the late Dr. Reid Bryson, December 2006 (and no doubt 10,000 other times.)
“It seems to me that no soothsayer should be able to look another soothsayer without laughing.”
– Cicero
Here in New England, things have been very mild, with temps very moderate and a notable lack of snow. The polar vortex which has hit the Midwest so hard is just now getting to us and is pulling the temps all the way down to just about average for mid-winter.
If this keeps up for Feb, we will have a mild and lucky winter indeed.
We have been around these parts long enough to know better than to count on anything. But we can hope.
(Hope is not a Plan.)
Yes rather mild winter so far, as predicted on the map above. Will be 20ºF above average in Boston on Mon/Tue.
I seem to remember something about some of the ski areas in VT and/or NH having a record early open this year? The mid-atlantic has been very cold, then mild, then cold , now a bit mild, so by no means warm overall and right in line with the Weatherbell prediction.
Well I guess that guy put in a few caveats and maybes as any weather forecaster would , and you can’t get it right every time so my sympathies to the NOAA guy
We have a weatherman in England who made his reputation by ruling out a hurricane 6 hours before it hit with massive damage as the worst storm for 300 years
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82hBNQSfros
However if you have global circulation models that infallibly underwrite the wisdom of blowing trillions of bucks on weather amelioration in 2100 then maybe they should be capable of building in a Jetstream wiggle or two over a 3 month period because don’t forget “THE SCIENCE IS SETTLED!!”
I suspect the winter forecast was based on another forecast … for El Nino. It held for a couple of months and has now started to fade. So, in reality they got two forecasts wrong.
And you can bet your A..s the British propaganda broadcasting co can be relied up to come up with a brilliant anal-ysis…. (it’s the bit before the “ysis” that sums it up so well).
“So, it can be very cold where you live but the world as a whole could still be getting warmer.
And be in no doubt, says Tim Woolings, the world is continuing to warm.
As Chicago freezes, wildfires are raging in Australia which is in the grip of yet another blistering summer.
Image caption:- Fires burning dangerously close can be seen from a lodge in Miena, Australia
The 20 warmest years on record have all been in the past 22 years, with 2015 to 2018 making up the top four, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
And if that does not persuade you, check out these seven charts……
This will be cold comfort for those of you shivering in the Midwest but, says Tim Woolings, the icy air that engulfed you this week WOULD HAVE BEEN at least a degree colder had it not been for the warming that has already raised average winter temperatures in the arctic.”
do we get the Dad’s army song….
“Who do think you are kidding Mr Hitler”
“The 20 warmest years on record …… Lets remember the hiatus in there. These records are based on 0.01C with an error of +/- 0.05C. Until 2012 1935 was the warmest in NA.
One of the reported record readings came from a weyaher station that had been operational for about a year. I wouldn’t put too much store by the Australian BOM’s temperature record management.
i put almost zero trust in Boms forecasts or now fiddled beyond funny past records
i look at their charts 5day fcast and radar/sat maps
every one of them is different for the same damned day! on the same webpage
im looking gratefully at the enso chart here dropping toward neutral again and hoping it stays that way or lower
medias all over the hottest ever clims today…
And until the early 1970’s they were ESTIMATED to the nearest 1/10 deg F (or C depending on where you were). ESTIMATED, meaning that the true temperature was somewhere within .2 to .3 degrees of what was recorded. To take data that sloppy and say the current global temperature is even 0.1 degrees higher than ever is pure dung. I know how it worked because I took observations in that era.
Of course recent years are the warmest, in general, as the Earth coming out of the Little Ice Age circa 1700 has been slowly warming these last 200-300 years, with some shorter term cooling cycles superimposed.
What is at issue is whether the rising CO2 will lead to catastrophe vs being a net neutral or benign process. (eg. longer growing cycles plus CO2 as plant food will likely help feed the world)—-overall a good for the whole biosphere.
Time will tell. So far so good.
And a margin of safety against the next glaciation
If someone claimed the ability to reduce the effects of the Polar Vortex, he’d be laughed out of town. But if he promised to alter the temperature of the entire planet over the next 100 years, he’d be given a grant.
What was the Farmer’s Almanac prediction for Winter 2018-19?
Farmers almanac and NOAA in one TV weather report:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EbhkygQUq7M
Yea, the “scientists” missed it bigly..
Everybody (well, at least 97% of everybody) knows it is much easier to predict the climate 80 years from now than the weather three months from now.
The ‘warmer oceans produce more snow’ garbage is what sends me screaming. Warmer oceans may produce more moisture, but what produces the intense cold? Hint to NOAA: not warmer oceans.
Rest assured, in 20 years time this winter will be revised up and become one of the warmest winters evah!