‘Polar Vortex’ Will Have Nearly 90 Percent Of US Below-Freezing

4:54 PM 01/28/2019 | Energy

Michael Bastasch | Energy Editor

Nearly 90 percent of the continental U.S. will experience below-freezing temperatures over the next five days as Arctic air moves south, according to forecasts.

The “polar vortex” event will have 89 percent of the continental U.S. with below freezing weather, meteorologist Ryan Maue said. In fact, all of the lower-48 are forecast to experience freezing weather, including Florida.

The National Weather Service (NWS) is warning of “extreme and dangerous” cold weather across the Great Plains and Great Lakes where wind chill could dip as low as -60 degrees Fahrenheit. NWS expects temperature “lows in the -30s and -40s” Wednesday through Thursday.

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service

CNN reports that 75 percent of the U.S. population, more than 220 million people, could see below-freezing temperatures in the coming days. Frigid weather is expected to shatter dozens of temperature records throughout the eastern half of the country.

Temperatures across the region are expected to be as low as -40 degrees, and Chicago could break an all-time record low of -27 degrees Celsius set back in 1985, according to Maue. (RELATED: Kamala Harris Makes Misleading Climate Change Claim In Her First Campaign Speech. Why Isn’t The Media Correcting Her?)

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1089994196591800325

Farther north, Ennadai Lake in the Canadian Arctic could see wind chill as low -81 degrees Fahrenheit, NWS reported.

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rick
January 29, 2019 6:03 am

Damn, I wish it was 2 deg cooler today – then all would be right in the world again (at least that’s what the IPCC says)

Jaap Titulaer
Reply to  rick
January 29, 2019 7:44 am

But it is. A few degrees below old absolute records in many places over there…

https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2019-01-28-polar-vortex-midwest-arctic-air-coldest-two-decades

There could also be a few cities that come close to all-time record lows for any day of the year on Thursday morning.
Chicago and Rockford, Illinois may be within a few degrees of their all-time records of minus 27 degrees, set Jan. 20, 1985 and Jan. 10, 1982, respectively.
Cedar Rapids, Dubuque and Waterloo, Iowa, could also dip to near their all-time record lows of minus 29 degrees, minus 30 degrees and minus 34 degrees, respectively.

[picture: The coldest temperatures on record for a sampling of cities.]
In most of these cities, these frigid temperatures are in another league from some of the daily records listed above.
In the Dakotas, Minnesota, Iowa and St. Louis, the all-time records still stand from more than 100 years ago.
In Chicago and Detroit, these records were set in the mid-1980s.
A number of Ohio Valley cities – including Cleveland, Columbus, Indianapolis, Louisville and Pittsburgh – set all-time record lows during the mid-January 1994 cold outbreak.

Bryan A
Reply to  Jaap Titulaer
January 29, 2019 9:51 am

Naw, If it were 2 deg cooler, it would obvoiusly be warmer

James Snook
Reply to  rick
January 29, 2019 8:44 am

Comment of the day Rick!

Sara
Reply to  rick
January 29, 2019 1:53 pm

The record set in Chicago in January 1985 was -25 degrees FAHRENHEIT.

The correct CELSIUS TEMPERATURE was -31.6667 degrees, NOT -27.

I don’t know where the -27Celsius comes from but I do wish you’d doublecheck those numbers before you include them. I was living in Chicago, about 6.5 miles north of the Loop, where I worked. I know how confounded cold it was. I had to walk my dog three times a day that weekend and strap a thick blanket onto her, because despite her thick coat, it was that bitterly cold.

Also, at NTC Great Lakes, the pipes froze and burst and as a friend of mine relayed to me, all the recruits were pulled out of the various barracks, marched to the gym, told to cluster together and keep moving from inside to outside the various company groups, to survive the cold.

It is really annoying to see a weather forecasting service like Accuweather going into sensationalist jargon by claiming that ALL midwestern temperatures are going to drop to the REAL FEEL equivalent of -75F. That is misleading and thoroughly obnoxious. I have sincere doubts that any of those people ever step outside in the bitter cold to walk the dog, as I had to do, or try to start a car that didn’t want to start.

John M Ware
Reply to  Sara
January 29, 2019 3:32 pm

In the early 1970s my wife and I lived in Superior, WI, where our son was born in May 1973. The coldest day I remember clearly was in January, and it was -31F. I don’t remember anyone saying that was the record, so chances are good the record was colder, likely in the -40 to -45F range. There is a place in north central Minnesota named Grygla, reportedly because that’s the noise your car makes–once–when you try to start it at -40F. Just say it softly and fairly fast, and imagine your car, with you inside, making that tiny, futile, deadly noise when you turn the ignition key . . .

Sara
Reply to  Sara
January 29, 2019 3:44 pm

I did try to start my car that day. It went ‘rrr…r…r..’ so I decided to wait until things warmed up to try to start. I was just grateful for a nice, warm apartment at the time. My dog gave me those looks that mean ‘you have got to be kidding me’ when I wanted to take her out.

Sara
Reply to  Sara
January 30, 2019 3:58 am

Update: actual overnight low here was as follows: -20 F, clear sky, wind chill of -42F, and my pipes did not freeze (Thank you!).

Looking forward to tonight’s episode of Late Night In the Cold.

Reply to  rick
January 29, 2019 4:48 pm

Now THAT’S the weather map I’ve been predicting! I think the way to cure people of Global Warming Hysteria Syndrome is to freeze the bejaysus out of them – essentially get them to cool off, emotionally AND physically. It is impossible to say “global warming” when your teeth are chattering so hard it sounds like a jackhammer inside your head.

Below is the history of my “cold Curse” that I called down upon the Northeast USA and eastern Canada back in November. The Dept. of Homeland Security should understand that I really don’t create the weather, I just hang out with very competent weather forecasters.

Joe d’Aleo and I did this once before, prior to the brutal NE winter of 2014-15, We contacted the Energy Information Administration (EIA), which used Joe’s detailed Winter forecast to revise their total winter energy demand upwards by 11%. Joe turned out to be correct, and we may have prevented considerable suffering. That is a huge amount of energy.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/01/02/latest-global-temp-anomaly-december-18-0-25c-uah-global-temperature-update-for-december-2018-0-25-deg-c/#comment-2574933

My “Cold Curse” on the East is still working, but the best is yet to come. Brrr!

https://weather.com/maps/ustemperaturemap

Happy New Year! It’s going to be a cold one!

Fully ~85% of global primary energy is from fossil fuels, unchanged in decades – and essential for the survival of you and your family.
_______________________________

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/11/17/will-the-snowiest-decade-continue/#comment-2521702

Fair warning: I’m calling down another very hard winter on the US Northeast, extending up into Canada.

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
January 29, 2019 6:14 pm

You can’t invalidate a long-term global warming trend with a snapshot weather map of a single small region.

You can’t proove a long-term global warming trend with a snapshot weather map of a single small region either. That still doesn’t stop some people from trying!

Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
January 29, 2019 8:20 pm

One fatal flaw that tends to disprove the catastrophic human-made global warming hypothesis is:
EARTH COOLED FROM ~1940 TO ~1977, EVEN AS FOSSIL FUEL COMBUSTION STRONGLY ACCELERATED.

As atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased, Earth cooled for about 37 years until the Great Pacific Climate Shift of 1977, then warmed for less than two decades, and then stayed about the same temperature for two decades during “the Pause”, except for some major El Nino’s and la Nina’s.

The correlations of global temperature with increasing atmospheric CO2 is therefore negative, positive and near-zero – an extremely poor correlation. This was a full-Earth-scale test that is not subject to scale-up errors, etc.

The is NO evidence that increasing atmospheric CO2 is a significant driver of global warming, unless you also conclude that CO2 also drives global cooling AND “the Pause”.

Christy and McNider (2017) and Lewis and Curry (2018) both made the very conservative assumption (for the sake of argument and simplicity) that ~ALL net global temperature increases are due to increasing atm. CO2, and thus calculated that MAXIMUM UPPER BOUND value of climate sensitivity equals just over 1C/(2xCO2). These are also full-Earth-scale tests.

Climate computer models, which to date have run far too hot and demonstrated NO predictive credibility, employ values of climate sensitivity to CO2 that are many times higher than 1C/doubling, and thus create false alarm.

The rational conclusion is that CLIMATE SENSITIVITY TO ATMOSPHERIC CO2 IS SO LOW THAT THERE IS NO REAL CO2-DRIVEN GLOBAL WARMING CRISIS.

Regards, Allan

Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
January 29, 2019 10:18 pm

Kym – I’m giving you the respect of a full answer, and hope you will not respond with a drive-by shooting. I am doing my best to not respond-in-kind to personal attacks. I have seen too many of these over the decades, and actually experienced one apparently-serious threat circa 2002 – a man stated that he held me personally responsible for the flooding of Prague – I manned-up, accepted full responsibility, and told him rather impolitely to “run-off” or I would do it again. 🙂

For the sake of simplicity and argument, Christy and McNider assumed ALL net warming for the satellite era from 1979 to mid-2017 was due to increasing atmospheric CO2. Lewis and Curry made the same simplifying assumption for the industrial era circa 1850-to-present.

This simplifying assumption provides an UPPER BOUND maximum estimate of climate sensitivity to increasing atmospheric CO2 of about 1C/(doubling of atm. CO2) – actual climate sensitivity is probably lower than 1C/doubling.

Other evidence, such as the (previously-discussed) negative, positive and near-zero correlation of global temperature with CO2 since ~1940 suggests that climate sensitivity is considerably lower than 1C/doubling, and is probably near-zero.

Another observation, initially made by me in January 2008 and later expanded by Humlum et al in 2013, is that atmospheric CO2 trends LAG global temperature trends by ~9 months in the modern data record. It’s a bit complicated, and this observation does not necessarily mean that increasing CO2 does not cause any warming, but it does suggest that the magnitude of climate sensitivity to CO2 must be very small, and probably smaller than the (small) net impact of temperature on CO2 – if this were not true, the clear signal of “CO2-lags-temperature” would be drowned out.

In my opinion, this is still the cutting-edge of climate science, and has been inadequately investigated. I think I recently proposed why the lag is ~9 months – it is 1/4 of a natural oscillation of the Pacific Ocean that averages about 36 months – basic calculus. Of course I could be wrong, but I doubt it. 🙂

Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
January 30, 2019 5:16 am

Correction of typo:
“I recently proposed why the lag is ~9 months – it is 1/4 of a natural oscillation of the Pacific Ocean that averages about 36 months – basic calculus.”

Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
January 30, 2019 3:28 pm

Kym wrote:
“Christy and McNider (2017)appears to be a very narrow study only using locations in Alabama, only daytime high temperatures and only data from summer months, so doesn’t have much relevance to a global, annual phenomenon.”

Wrong Kym – Christy and McNider used global satellite temperatures – the database is called UAH which stands for University of Alabama at Huntsville. John Christy invented the technology with Roy Spencer for NASA and they received a major award for doing so. You are clearly new at this and you need to do a lot more work.

I have two engineering degrees and started studying this subject in 1985, and did so for 17 years before writing my first publication in 2002. I have continued to study the subject and have yet to find ANY convincing evidence that ECS is much more than 1C/doubling, and it could be much less.

You can look up drroyspencerc.om for more information.

goldminor
Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
January 31, 2019 3:05 am

And a delayed spring just like last spring, imo/forecast.

troe
January 29, 2019 6:09 am

AKA why so many Americans remain skeptical of alarmist claims of global warming.

Nature still goes it’s own way and AGW theory keeps failing.

Kamala Harris is symptomatic of the deep rot on the American Left. On the Left in general for that matter. Thought free yokels will fall for anything

Adam
Reply to  troe
January 29, 2019 6:28 am

They’ve gotten Americans to endorse a variety of emperor-has-no-clothes positions, “climate change” being the most prominent. We all know some of the others.

joe
Reply to  troe
January 29, 2019 7:16 am

Unfortunately, the low temperatures are missing the US west coast. Would love to see LA get 12 inches of snowfall and have it stick around for a week.

Rocketscientist
Reply to  joe
January 29, 2019 8:31 am

Not us here in LA!
The local mountains could use it though.
I moved from Chicago to avoid this sort of thing.

rishrac
Reply to  Rocketscientist
January 29, 2019 10:26 am

@ rocketscientist, did you get a grant from the IPCC to help you move? Obliviously, you are a climate refugee.

noaaprogrammer
Reply to  Rocketscientist
January 29, 2019 9:25 pm

I remember the snow that fell around this time during the winter of 1948-49 when we were living in southern California. Dad and I built a snowman, and I have a picture of us and palm trees in the background with about 2 inches of snow.

Patvann
Reply to  noaaprogrammer
January 30, 2019 3:56 pm

The last “real” snow here in San Jose CA, was in ’76. I was a Freshman at Mitty High School.

Johann Wundersamer
Reply to  joe
January 29, 2019 9:26 am
Hornblower
Reply to  troe
January 29, 2019 9:23 am

Because she is wrong on this does not make the opposition correct on everything. There is plenty of rot on the other side as well.

goldminor
Reply to  troe
January 29, 2019 10:31 am

Kamala Harris did the Rs a great favor today “… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/kamala-harris-under-fire-after-promising-to-abolish-private-health-care-plans-thats-not-american

You have to love that. How many American hearts do you think that she will win over after making such an insane statement of intent?

ldd
Reply to  goldminor
January 30, 2019 3:23 pm

Sounds like you watch a lot of FOX – I personally think than anyone who watches TV for news is a happy LIV. Low information voter.

Tom in Denver
January 29, 2019 6:14 am

Great lake water temps are already pretty cool. Expect massive freeze ups over the next few days

MattS
Reply to  Tom in Denver
January 29, 2019 7:32 am

I live in Wisconsin, close to Lake Michigan. According to the local weather forecast, the -double digit temps are only going to last a little over 24 hours. Temps will be back to the -5 to -7 range by Thursday and the daily high forecast for Saturday is 34, just above freezing. Michigan is 1,180 cubic miles of water and Superior is 2900 cubic miles of water. With just 1 day of extra cold temps I wouldn’t expect a major freeze on either of those lakes. It might be a different story with the two smallest of the great lakes, Ontario and Erie

Rocketscientist
Reply to  MattS
January 29, 2019 8:45 am

Lake Superior is HUGE (there is enough water in Lake Superior to cover the entire land mass of North and South America to a depth of 12 in), and subsequently has a huge thermal mass. The surface temperature of Lake Superior varies seasonally, but the temperature below 660 ft (200 m) is an almost constant 39 °F (4 °C).
During August as I have waded out from shore my toes have gone numb before I reached knee-depth.
About every 20 years or so the entire lake’s surface will freeze over.

goldminor
Reply to  Rocketscientist
January 29, 2019 10:33 am

Interesting facts about the lake, +10

James in WNC
Reply to  Rocketscientist
January 29, 2019 1:37 pm

I swam in Superior years ago while camping the UP. My Labrador loved it. My future wife, not so much.

D Anderson
Reply to  MattS
January 29, 2019 8:51 am

Quick warm up then back into the deep freeze again – is what I’m seeing predicted.

Tom in Denver
Reply to  MattS
January 29, 2019 10:19 am

US data is still not current but the Canadian web site is working:
https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/NAIS25ECT/20190128180000_NAIS25ECT_0010434742.pdf
Erie is mostly covered
Huron is probably +60%
Superior is perhaps 30% (although it looks like solid ice out to Isle Royale)
Michigan and Ontario are always last to freeze

Doug Huffman
January 29, 2019 6:16 am

I spent three hours off and on shoveling yesterday, and an hour already today, but the driveway is clear. Later today I will shovel off the porches and decks to get the doors open that are drifted shut, and clear the hot tub most importantly. ‘They’ are threatening $1000 to pump my holding tank before the thaw, and I get to drain my hot tub to the yard as graywater – so far.

Jim M
January 29, 2019 6:22 am

Tonight -12ºF, tomorrow -18ºF and Thursday -21ºF in NE Wisconsin. Wind chills will be much lower than that. It’s weather but a reminder that warm is always better than cold.

dipchip
Reply to  Jim M
January 29, 2019 1:00 pm

I shall never forget 25 Dec 1983 in Houston. The holiday week was spent hauling carpet out of many homes. I escaped the burst pipes. 10 deg F on Christmas morning at Bush Int AP

https://infoseek.wunderground.com/history/airport/KIAH/1983/12/20/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=KIAH&req_state=TX&req_statename=Texas&reqdb.zip=77205&reqdb.magic=4&reqdb.wmo=99999

Find the submit button and enter kord for Chicago then change the date and select monthly.

Trebla
January 29, 2019 6:24 am

That extra 130 ppm CO2 doesn’t seem to be of much help with its downwelling when you really need it. But be grateful. Without the one degree warming since the industrial revolution, the temperature would be one degree colder than it is (if my math is correct).

DAV
January 29, 2019 6:27 am

WUWT has an Energy Editor?

LdB
Reply to  DAV
January 29, 2019 7:57 am

They send him out with paddles to land the warming in the right place or else it just ends up in the deep oceans.

griff
Reply to  DAV
January 29, 2019 10:03 am

Waming of the planet will surely kill us all!

Reply to  griff
January 29, 2019 11:03 am

Listening to Griff provides endless hours of fact-free entertainment.

MarkW
Reply to  griff
January 29, 2019 3:11 pm

That’s what the alarmists have been claiming.

Bryan A
Reply to  griff
January 29, 2019 7:34 pm

Living a life will surely kill us all…no one has beaten death yet

ldd
Reply to  griff
January 30, 2019 3:32 pm

No one gets out of this alive … no one.

I loath the doom and gloom alarmists of every stripe, I really do.
Who knew that pretend misery would be so profitable for the snake oil media/salesmen.

January 29, 2019 6:33 am

Here in Michigan it was 15 degrees F. this morning.

Tomorrow the forecast is for below zero
for the WHOLE day, and could set a record
for January 29.

November 2018 was unusually cold.

The last two weeks of December 2017
plus the first week of January 2018,
were the coldest three consecutive weeks
since I moved to the Detroit metropolitan area
in 1977.

Where is the global warming
we have been warned about
for the past 30 years !

Please send some global warming !

And send some to Chicago too !

Crispin in Waterloo
Reply to  Richard Greene
January 29, 2019 7:09 am

Richard

If you check, it was not just November that was really cold. It started in mid-October and remained cold through mid December, or at least through the first week. Total 8 weeks of far below normal weather, That’s why the lakes are so cold.

Mercifully I was in Beijing in January. Last year I was in Ulaanbaatar and it was as low as -42 C in the city (-44F). The really odd things about that was that the sun came up around 8 AM, but the temperature kept dropping until 9 AM. Heading out to work at 9AM every day into a wind that blows the scarf off your head is not pleasant at -35.

Tomorrow will be -23 C in Waterloo. I was just using the snowblower around the block to help the young mothers with children and elderly. The snow plough closed all the driveways. It is nasty out there. Heap big wind.

Tom in Denver
Reply to  Richard Greene
January 29, 2019 7:41 am

We are sending warming your way, a lot of it, through pipelines. Thanks to Hydraulic Fracturing.

Stay warm

Johann Wundersamer
Reply to  Richard Greene
January 29, 2019 9:34 am

Global warming is sold out. Some temperated burgers are in the shelves.

TDBraun
January 29, 2019 6:40 am

Headline in my newspaper this morning:
“Experts Say Get Used to Visits by Polar Vortex”
–A sudden warming way above the North Pole weeks ago set the stage for event–
by Seth Borenstein, Associated Press
Washington — It may seem counter-intuitive, but the dreaded polar vortex is bringing its icy grip to parts of the U.S. thanks to a sudden blast of warm air in the arctic.
Get used to it …

I didn’t know the arctic was prone to “sudden blasts of warm air”

ToddF
Reply to  TDBraun
January 29, 2019 7:20 am

“by Seth Borenstein, Associated Press”

That explains it all.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  TDBraun
January 29, 2019 7:50 am

Actually the reports cited 125 degree warm air sent to the Arctic. They said that.

Editor
Reply to  TDBraun
January 29, 2019 10:28 am

He’s referring to “Sudden Stratospheric Warming” events. They’re a thing, and typically lead to disruption of the polar jet stream a week or two later. Some twit thought of calling that the polar vortex and it caught on.

This might be good:

https://eos.org/features/how-sudden-stratospheric-warming-affects-the-whole-atmosphere

goldminor
Reply to  Ric Werme
January 29, 2019 7:06 pm

I was going to comment earlier on the unusual changes in the top two levels of the atmosphere which have taken place over the last 6 weeks. I have the daily pics from earthnull of the entire sequence of the SSW event between Dec 18th and Jan 10. Prior to the outbreak both levels 10hPa and 70hPa were clearly showing a changeup over previous years. Then afterwards both levels lost their typical organization of well defined spinning zones sitting around the central area of the pole, and wi. …https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=28.50,65.15,407/loc=71.233,63.579

Is this maybe due to a shrinking atmosphere caused by the current solar minimum? There has been a noticeable change from 250hPa to 10hPa.

Craig Lindber
January 29, 2019 6:41 am

Yet another reason to live in South Texas.

Samuel C Cogar
Reply to  Craig Lindber
January 29, 2019 8:46 am

South Texas is better than central Texas, specifically Georgetown, Texas, to wit:

Political leaders in a college town in central Texas won wide praise from former Vice President Al Gore and the larger Green Movement when they decided to go “100 percent renewable” seven years ago. Now, however, they are on the defensive over electricity costs that have their residents paying more than $1,000 per household in higher electricity charges over the last four years.

That’s right – $1,219 per household in higher electricity costs for the 71,000 residents of Georgetown, Texas, all thanks to the decision of its Republican mayor, Dale Ross, to launch a bold plan to shift the city’s municipal utility to 100 percent renewable power in 2012.

Read more here

HD Hoese
Reply to  Samuel C Cogar
January 29, 2019 9:01 am

S Texas N of Corpus Christi is rapidly adding wind turbines. So many red lights, different world nowadays. https://phys.org/news/2019-01-frigid-polar-vortex-blasts-global.html#jCp
“Symptoms of a changing climate are not always obvious or easy to understand….”
I’m trying, I’m trying… obviously not taught by my physics professor who only knew antique science. Students like that got put in their place, apparently not always.

AGW is not Science
Reply to  Samuel C Cogar
January 29, 2019 9:58 am

They should go the extra yard to show the hypocrisy and impossibility of their stupid “100% renewable” effort – disconnect the town from the grid, and watch it go dark with frequency.

Could Be Greg
Reply to  Craig Lindber
January 29, 2019 3:45 pm

Exited Auburn Hills, Mi in October, toured around the South, and landed in Corpus Christi, TX in December. Very content, and comfortable, living across the street from the Gulf of Mexico. Today is one of the few days with highs below 60 since I arrived, and will be the only one this week. Winter temps have been lower, on the whole, in SE Michigan since ’14. Not missing a single digit of it.

Joel O’Bryan
January 29, 2019 6:41 am

That cold maps to the LGM Laurentian ice shield quite well.

Steve O
January 29, 2019 6:42 am

These are exactly the sort of weather patterns we can expect in the future with global warming.

(Note: Works with all weather patterns.)

Coach Springer
Reply to  Steve O
January 29, 2019 6:48 am

Works with all climate patterns.

Ian W
Reply to  Steve O
January 29, 2019 7:20 am

In fact these are precisely NOT the sort of weather patterns we would expect with global warming. (It is the kind of excuse that is expected though.)

the likely impacts of Arctic amplification and whether they are already emerging. Wind patterns are expected to spread the warming over high-latitude land areas, warming the tundra and its underlying permafrost. There is growing recognition that this could thaw permafrost and release the carbon stored in these soils back to the atmosphere, further accelerating climate warming.

From September 2009 – Arctic amplification – Mark Serreze

https://nsidc.org/about/monthlyhighlights/2009/09/arctic-amplification

You cannot have it both ways.

Note that Arctic ice extent is not particularly low and Arctic temperatures are at the average which is colder than this time last year.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Ian W
January 29, 2019 8:59 am

Correct

+10

Louis Hunt
Reply to  Ian W
January 29, 2019 10:16 am

In 2014, Cowtan and Way claimed that the Arctic was warming 8 times faster than the rest of the planet. So, unless the rest of the planet has warmed near zero over the past 5 years, the Arctic should be much warmer by now. Where is all the cold coming from to fuel the polar vortex?

John W Braue
Reply to  Louis Hunt
January 29, 2019 11:49 am

It’s fleeing the Gorebull Worming.

SteveW
Reply to  Ian W
January 30, 2019 2:37 am

What kind of temperature swings would not be consistent with predictions? Without that, it would seem to be an untestable hypothesis.

Current Arctic ice extent is within 2sd of the mean, so not significantly different from the norm.
comment image

Arctic temperatures, as opposed to the +80N mean anomoly to which you linked, are pretty much normal too.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2019.png

The graph you linked to is a cumulative mean temperature anomoly and has (almost) nothing to do with the current temperature.

jtom
January 29, 2019 6:48 am

What is the minimum temperature for wind turbines to be operational? Besides blade icing, I would think gearbox lubricants and electronics would be be at risk in this weather, and perhaps some components would become brittle. At a minimum, being able to perform any type of maintenance on them would be problematic.

troe
Reply to  jtom
January 29, 2019 6:53 am

good question

troe
Reply to  jtom
January 29, 2019 7:06 am

“The operation of wind turbines in a cold climate such as Canada’s involves additional challenges not present in warmer locations, such as:

Accumulation of ice on wind turbine blades resulting in reduced power output and increased rotor loads;
Cold weather shutdown to prevent equipment failure; and
Limited or reduced access for maintenance activities” Natural Resources Canada

I’m sure we have Canadian friends who can tell us if wind power output is being affected by the current cold. If it is that’s something that citizens of cold climates would probably be surprised and alarmed to hear.

Crispin in Waterloo
Reply to  jtom
January 29, 2019 7:15 am

Wind turbines designed for cold climates have electric heaters in them that take power from the grid to keep the oil warm. When the wind is low a wind farm is a net consumer of power. When it is really, really, cold, there is no wind by the nacelle and the oil have to be heated.

Also, large blades cannot be left standing, even if they are covered with ice. The main shaft will bend it left in one position for some specified design time. (Large gas turbines have the same problem). So there is an electric motor in it to turn the blade slowly on no-wind conditions.

troe
Reply to  Crispin in Waterloo
January 29, 2019 7:38 am

Seems like our friends in the UK have access to a website that shows generation or output of their wind farms at any given time. Do you have something like that for Canadian wind farms in the areas effected by the extreme cold. Matching the cold temps with electricity generation by source might make for an interesting visual right now.

jtom
Reply to  Crispin in Waterloo
January 29, 2019 8:39 am

So, when the power is needed most, and you are running your generators to the max, windfarms ADD to the power consumption. What a great plan (sarc, of course).

Derg
Reply to  jtom
January 29, 2019 7:21 am

Not sure, but we have to clear off the 5″ of snow on the solar panels, so they can generate enough electricity to de-ice the de-icing mechanism on our solar panels 😉

Johann Wundersamer
Reply to  jtom
January 29, 2019 9:46 am

Gearbox lubricants have to get cooled. They are working in the gearbox!

Editor
Reply to  Johann Wundersamer
January 29, 2019 10:31 am

Only when the wind blows.

rishrac
Reply to  jtom
January 29, 2019 10:35 am

Think solar is all that and a bag of chips? I looked at the charging rates on the battery and it said, ” battery too cold to charge”.

goldminor
Reply to  rishrac
January 29, 2019 7:18 pm

The Rolls Battery website tells you upfront that the batteries need to be placed in a temperature controlled, ventilated room. Hard to believe that someone would build a setup with those not cheap batteries, and then overlook that little highly important detail.

Lewis P Buckingham
Reply to  goldminor
January 30, 2019 2:36 am

Recently before the heatwave in Victoria, Australia, there was a push to put in a big battery.
It had to be installed and kept airconditioned at 25C, otherwise the batteries are damaged. If they reach 60C they fail totally.
Does not look good for using lithium batteries in heatwave conditions in cars and in freezing conditions.

Andy Pattullo
January 29, 2019 6:59 am

One would think we are close to the scene in the Wizard of Oz when someone pulls back the curtain and reveals the farce. Unfortunately we have the Democratic Party, a bevi of nascent ultra left liberals, lunatic environmentalists, avaricious climate “scientists” not yet weaned from the public purse, morally bankrupt media tycoons and social anarchists holding the curtain tightly closed.
Any Rand and George Orwell saw this coming.

Eustace Cranch
January 29, 2019 7:03 am

The only way the alarmists can have any credibility ascribing the polar vortex to AGW is to be on record 10+ years ago predicting this specific effect. (Hint: there were no such predictions, other than “everything is going to be bad” generalities).

What they’re doing is “predicting” the winning horse after the race is run. “See, we told you that would happen!” No, you didn’t. Nice try.

Walter Sobchak
January 29, 2019 7:20 am

I want my global warming, and I want it now!

Gary
Reply to  Walter Sobchak
January 29, 2019 7:47 am

Go look in the ocean. I heard that it might be hiding there.

vukcevic
Reply to  Walter Sobchak
January 29, 2019 8:16 am

It’s down the Mexico way, sadlle up and get there any way you can, before that damn wall is up. /sc

goldminor
Reply to  Johann Wundersamer
January 29, 2019 7:30 pm

One of my granddaughters died in a similar fashion 18 months ago. My daughter had taken Danielle to a doctor several days before. The doctor prescribed the exact same two drugs as are mentioned in the USAToday story. I think that it was 2 days later when as they were watching tv that night when Danielle told her mom that she could not breathe. She died in her mothers arms.

Since then I have taken note of quite a few similar deaths of healthy children and adults dying in a similar manner as I read from websites all around the nation.

Adrian
January 29, 2019 7:33 am

According to AGW every time I heat my large saucepan of water I should get ice forming at the edges (adding heat will increase the number and value of the extremes of temperature range), but I’ve never seen this happening.

Eustace Cranch
Reply to  Adrian
January 29, 2019 7:49 am

I know, right?

AGW theory hasn’t predicted a damn thing accurately. The alarmist just latch onto bad weather events, which have happened throughout history, and “back-explain” them as caused by AGW.

Anthony Banton
Reply to  Adrian
January 29, 2019 7:49 am

That’s because your “saucepan” has only a source of heat, and not a sink for it.
You need the two.
Then you have large scale movement of the sourced heat within the system.
IE: the cold can swap with the warm.
The PV movement south over the US is one such.
Meanwhile the other side of the coin ……

comment image

TRM
Reply to  Anthony Banton
January 29, 2019 11:35 am

I love that site for its colorful pictures. I usually check the daily summary

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2

Cold, real cold and DF cold for the east.

Adrian
Reply to  Anthony Banton
January 29, 2019 1:59 pm

I think you’ll find that my saucepan has plenty of thermal sinks, such as radiative and convective transfer on the sides and top as well as the phase change occurring at the surface. You’ll find the earth only has radiative transfer.

Scaling does not change the temperature extremes of the convention currents, unless that’s some new physics I missed in Thermodynamics.

vukcevic
January 29, 2019 7:41 am

The polar vortex extends from the tropopause at 8–11 km in altitude, to the stratopause at around 50–60 km in altitude.
During strong solar activity passenger jets avoid flying polar route, since the Earth magnetic field funnels charge particles towards magnetic poles. The charge particles strongly ionise atmospheric gasses in the vortex. Atmospheric velocity of polar vortex is well in excess of 100km/h and often 2 or 3x that.
Noting that the atmosphere of the polar vortex is ionised, basic laws of physics stipulate that movement of such gasses is under influence of the magnetic field present.
Just few days ago there was a strong aurora associated with polar coronal hole (see recent WUWT). Downward cascade of charged particles would have strongly ionised polar vortex, and this state may persist for few weeks or even a month or so.
When the charge is low the effect of earth’s field on the vortex is weak, the vortex is strong with jet stream more regular mainly restricted to high latitudes.
With high charge the vortex is pulled away by the concentration of intensity in the earth’s MF, eventually splitting it up into two distinct but much weaker entities.
as in this type of often seen image: http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/NH.gif
or movie: https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/36000/36972/npole_gmao_200901-02.mov
Electrically charged polar vortex in The Northern Hemisphere is progressively spread out and weaken by effect of split magnetic field and eventually it is itself split after number of days or couple of weeks.
There is a strong relationship between polar vortex and polar jet stream.
When the polar vortex is strong, there is a single vortex with a jet stream that is “well constrained” near the polar front. When the northern vortex weakens, it separates into two vortices above Canada and Siberia in contrast the Antarctic vortex of the Southern Hemisphere is a single low pressure zone.
When the polar vortex is strong, the mid-latitude Westerlies (winds at the surface level between 30° and 60° latitude from the west) increase in strength and are persistent. When the polar vortex is weak, high pressure zones of the mid latitudes may push poleward, moving the jet stream, and polar weather front equator-ward. The jet stream is seen to “buckle” and deviate south. This rapidly brings cold dry air into contact with the warm, moist air of the mid latitudes, resulting in a rapid and dramatic change of weather known as a “cold snap”.
Simple physics.

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  vukcevic
January 29, 2019 7:00 pm

The first article is models all the way down. The second appears to be a mishmash of statistics, numerology and curve matching.

Pretty standard Climate Scientology, then…

SteveW
Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
January 30, 2019 3:20 am

“…To reconcile differing estimates, Masato Mori and his colleagues at the University of Tokyo combined observations and outputs from repeated runs of seven global climate models…”

Selective quoting is the last refuge of a scoundrel…

js
January 29, 2019 7:53 am

It’s never ever been this cold before and all due to global weirdness and climate change. Sure.

“In April 1879 she moved to Dakota Territory to teach and homestead. In August she filed for her homestead in Yankton, the territorial capitol. In an 1886 letter to the Department of Interior’s Land Commissioner, Wilder describes her farm and living conditions over several years.

My home was growing in beauty and desirability. I spent $100.00 on improvements on my house. Twas a year of hard work and very few of the young men in our eastern states would or could have done the work I did that year or endured the hardships & exposure to intense heat in summer & cold in winter. I worked out of doors 5 hours the 3rd day of Jan 1884 when mercury was frozen and spirit therm indicated 45° below zero.

…The records for De Smet do not begin until February 1889. To get an idea of the conditions during the “Long Winter,” the Yankton reports are the most useful. These records show the following range of temperatures for the winter of 1880 to 1881:
High Low
October 1880 84 15
November 1880 67 -5
December 1880 64 -19
January 1881 36 -32
February 1881 52 -23″

https://www.archives.gov/publications/prologue/2003/winter/little-town-in-nara-2.html

January 29, 2019 7:56 am

10:56AM EST…USA GRIPPED BY GLOBAL WARMING… AL GORE CALL YOUR POOLBOY… LUNCH BUFFET MAY BE DELAYED…

Andrew

ren
January 29, 2019 7:57 am

Where is El Niño?
Highest flood levels in 118 years | Nine News Australia
https://youtu.be/4g7KD3lMdNE

Tom Abbott
January 29, 2019 7:59 am

Extremely cold weather being funneled into the United States from the Arctic is an annual event. This happens every year. The temperatures of this current air mass may be a little lower than usual but that’s about the only difference.

Looks like business as usual to me.

It also reminds me that I prefer warm weather. 🙂

Dave
January 29, 2019 7:59 am

Right now on earth there is likely a differential of close to 150 degrees (f) at different places on the planet. And that has probably been the case every day of the year forever. Alarmists who claim they understand the chaotic system and can predict the climate change 80 years from now seem foolish to me.

ren
January 29, 2019 7:59 am

Stratospheric intrusion over the northeast of US.
comment image
The current temperatures (C) in the Midwest US.
comment image

ren
January 29, 2019 8:04 am

Polar vortex level 30 hPa.
comment image

ren
Reply to  ren
January 29, 2019 8:15 am
u.k.(us)
January 29, 2019 8:36 am

Such a witch, but She keeps you on your toes in Chicago…

“A 30 percent chance of snow showers, mainly after 11am. Patchy blowing snow after noon. Partly sunny and cold, with a temperature rising to near 1 by noon, then falling to around -3 during the remainder of the day. Wind chill values as low as -26. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.”

Marcos
January 29, 2019 8:39 am

We should take bets on how much of a positive anomaly GISS will show for US Jan. temps

ren
January 29, 2019 8:57 am

Jet stream forecast for tomorrow.
comment image

Bruce Cobb
January 29, 2019 9:10 am

We need the good, old fashioned global warming, not the namby-pamby kind now that hides in the ocean at the first opportunity.

TallDave
January 29, 2019 9:17 am

Watch the NCDC numbers. I’ll bet the Great Lakes region is once again declared “about average” no matter how cold it stays, much like in recent years with record ice extents.

nc
January 29, 2019 9:27 am

Since urban areas like Chicago have grown in size since cold records set, could there be an increase in heat island effect making it harder to hit those past cold records?

Carl Friis-Hansen
Reply to  nc
January 29, 2019 9:48 am

No, they always make sure the stations are moved to new location with lots of grass, mostly on greens, fairways or other well trimmed places. /SARC

u.k.(us)
Reply to  nc
January 29, 2019 10:52 am

It is all well documented, but the official Chicago temperature station was moved from Midway airport (1942-1980) to O’Hare airport (current).
Thus it moved further away from the possible influences of Lake Michigan.

Jim Kress
Editor
January 29, 2019 10:23 am

Aren’t these “polar vortexes” the same phenomena that we used to call Alberta Clippers?

ren
Reply to  Jim Kress
January 29, 2019 11:31 am

You have to distinguish between the stratospheric polar vortex and its impact on the troposphere.
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/zu_nh.gif

John Robertson
January 29, 2019 10:31 am

Sarcasm of course.
What you are seeing is the success of Emperor Justine’s Tax on pollution,what we mere mortals,call the carbon tax.
The Canadian Carbon Tax has been so successful that continental temperatures have plummeted in just one month.
Because the tax was grossly over done,due to the greed of Canadian Bureaucrats,the cooling will be excessive,overflowing into the Eastern USA.
Be sure to thank a Liberal,when you find yourself freezing in the dark.

In review,the above is a factual as most our government press releases with respect to global warming, or as they call it climate change.

January 29, 2019 11:17 am

This is interesting:

“Leading climate scientists and meteorologists are banking on a new strategy for talking about climate change: Take the politics out of it. That means avoiding the phrase “climate change,” so loaded with partisan connotations as it is.”

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/01/27/climate-change-politics-224295?fbclid=IwAR2SBCBynWSXFaHlyUc7MIC_ApTGPsIyDETTnSt2Mfr7nd0H7_5EvrpJs6I

Andrew

ren
January 29, 2019 11:55 am

Very low solar activity.
comment image

ResourceGuy
Reply to  ren
January 29, 2019 1:17 pm

Be careful. They will descend on you with the no-correlation rant.

Non Nomen
January 29, 2019 12:30 pm

This is going to be a nightmare for the homeless. I very much hope they’ll make it.

Robber
January 29, 2019 12:37 pm

In Melbourne Australia the temperature today will be about 100 degrees F, so on average the world is doing just fine. But tomorrow it’s forecast to be only 70F, so I hope you folks warm up soon.

jmorpuss
January 29, 2019 12:46 pm

Moscow and Beijing have reportedly joined forces to carry out heating experiments above Europe and modify an important layer of the atmosphere for a possible military application, according to Chinese scientists.
https://www.newsweek.com/china-russia-modified-atmosphere-europe-military-application-1262349

Geophysical phenomena during an ionospheric
modification experiment at Tromsø, Norway
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/file/index/docid/316449/filename/angeo-16-1212-1998.pdf

kevin kilty
January 29, 2019 12:47 pm

We are having a moderately cold winter out here at 7200 feet above sea level, but have not gone below -20F yet. I am very glad to not have to contend with this blast from the arctic. Combined with our elevation we could easily break our all-time record of -50F (set in Jan. 1963 ).

Phaedrus
January 29, 2019 1:00 pm

And in Australia and New Zealand we’re having a heat wave!

More importantly “Stuff” an online rag will no longer discuss or allow posts that question CC.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Phaedrus
January 29, 2019 1:27 pm

Science loses again

Dick Burkel
January 29, 2019 1:42 pm

Kind of fits in here, but even if it doesn’t I have to share this website:

http://www.hint.fm/wind

PaulH
January 29, 2019 1:46 pm

Just wait until April when the Green Blob will be telling us that January 2019 was one of the 10 hottest Januarys EVAH!

ren
January 29, 2019 2:20 pm

Flows more and more cold air from Canada.

Not Chicken Little
January 29, 2019 5:41 pm

So the Inuit and other Eskimo and indigenous peoples managed to survive temperatures like this EVERY WINTER but this “hiccup” that is styled as a “polar vortex” is throwing our modern civilization into a tizzy, if one believes the news. Oops that’s the problem, believing the news.

It’s WINTER for dog’s sake (I am so considerate of the left) and this is what sometimes happens. No big deal. Just don’t stay out too long unless you are prepared (some assume people are unable to prepare themselves for the cold unless they have a government minder), and whatever you do, don’t you eat the yellow snow…

Edward A. Katz
January 29, 2019 5:57 pm

In Winnipeg, where much of the polar vortex is flowing over, today’s (Jan. 29) high was -33C=-27F with a wind chill of -49C=-45F. I put a 2-liter bottle of Dr. Pepper out on my back steps, and within a half-hour it was 75% completely frozen. Since mid-January, 14 of the last 15 days have seen below-normal temperatures. Normal highs are -13C=+8F, and there’s no sign of anything close to a spring warm up. So where’s the global warming? Weren’t the alarmists telling us a few years ago that snow would soon be a thing of the past? The problem is that the stuff I was shoveling yesterday wasn’t mashed potatoes.

donald penman
January 29, 2019 7:23 pm

I find the Fahrenheit temperature scale very confusing particularly for low temperatures but for some strange reason the high Fahrenheit temperatures still mean something to me. The Celsius and Fahrenheit scale are equal at minus 40 but we had recently where I live in the UK a low temperature of minus 20 degrees Celsius but this is minus 4 degrees Fahrenheit which is a long way from minus 25 degrees Fahrenheit but minus 25 degrees Fahrenheit is 32 degrees Celsius which is closer. I also find it confusing as to where max daily temperatures are being given and daily mins are being given and then I have to convert it Celsius again before it means anything to me

Mmtlbecker
Reply to  donald penman
January 30, 2019 7:55 am

The difference is in the scale used to measure temperature. It is comparable to using meters or feet to measure distance. (I do agree that metric measurements are much easier to work with.) Celsius scale gives 100 divisions between the freezing and boiling points of water. The Fahrenheit scale was apparently established, by the scientist for whom it is named, a bit more arbitrarily using freezing brine water and normal human body temperature. Some time ago it was formally defined as +32 and +212 for freezing and boiling water. The -40 point happens to be where the two temperature scales intersect. The equation for conversion is F=9/5C + 32, or conversely, C = 5/9 (F-32). Having grown up with Fahrenheit, the concept of +35C being hot constantly escapes me. Regardless, I think all of us can agree that -40 by any measure is damn cold, which I can vouch for, having dealt with -58F yesterday.

ren
January 29, 2019 8:43 pm

The current temperature in the Midwest.
comment image

ren
January 29, 2019 8:59 pm

Tomorrow will be fast freezing of the Northeast.

Ian Hawthorn
January 29, 2019 9:01 pm

Sounds heavenly. Couldn’t sleep last night because of the heat and very high humidity. Had to have a cold shower at 3 in the morning to cool down. The house was like an over even with all doors and windows open. Really wish I had air conditioning.

ren
Reply to  ren
January 29, 2019 9:21 pm

It looks as La Niña.

Jack Russell
January 29, 2019 9:04 pm

I live in the Okanagan Valley, B.C. and it was above average the last few weeks and the CBC was saying how it isn’t normal. This was just a distraction from the cold weather in most of the country. Now it is a few degrees below normal. They are as Elmer Fudd would say “Vewy vewy quiet.” Of course when summer comes around and it gets warm the cultists will come out again and say the sky is falling.

January 29, 2019 11:30 pm

Regarding the reference to Australia having hot weather. It is a almost flat country , and its big, as big as USA itself Weather is mostly determined from where the wind comes from.

If its from the West , the Indian Ocean, its moderate, if from the South its from Antarctica and can be very cold. If from the East which is seldom, its from the vast Pacific and moderate, unless your in the North East when you will get the odd cyclone.

But if its from the North and its Summer, then you will get hot and moist air from South East Asia plus if its the Moonsoon season, then its lots of rain.n.

Its the hot winds from the North which then pass over the vast and hot desert, and that makes the air very hot.

Nothing to do with “Climate Change” and certainly nothing to do with the 1 % of the worlds CO2 which we produce.

MJE

ren
January 30, 2019 3:12 am

The current temperature in the Midwest.
comment image

Krishna Gans
January 30, 2019 5:24 am

Rahmstorf did it again:
What the 2018 climate assessments say about the Gulf Stream System slowdown

Last year, twenty thousand peer reviewed studies on ‘climate change’ were published. No single person can keep track of all those – you’d have to read 55 papers every single day. (And, by the way, that huge mass of publications is why climate deniers will always find something to cherry-pick that suits their agenda.) That is why climate assessments are so important, where a lot of scientists pool their expertise and discuss and assess and summarize the state of the art.

He wont learn it 😀

ren
Reply to  Krishna Gans
January 30, 2019 6:12 am

The current temperature in the Midwest.
comment image

ren
Reply to  ren
January 30, 2019 6:45 am

This is not the end of low temperatures in the Midwest.

ren
January 30, 2019 6:52 am

During solar cycle minimum you can not count on El Nino.
comment image

ren
January 30, 2019 8:04 am

This is the forecast of stratospheric intrusion on 31/01/2019.
comment image

Krishna Gans
January 30, 2019 8:37 am

And that the temperatures in the hot Arctiv:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2019.png

Vince
January 30, 2019 12:54 pm

And at Penn State, home institution of the great Michael Mann, classes are canceled for remainder of day on Jan 30 2019 and all day Jan 31.

I don’t recall Penn State closing for cold weather in the past but if so it has been in recent years. It is not uncommon for Penn State to shut down for snow or ice. And more so in recent years

How will the “Mann” spin this? Maybe a warmer earth means more cold?

From Penn State website:
“1/30/19 3:08 PMDue to extreme cold: Jan. 30, students dismissed at 4:30 p.m., faculty and staff and 5 p.m.; Jan. 31, classes and activities are cancelled. On Jan. 31, faculty and staff should not report unless previously identified as performing essential services.”

I agree that weather is not a indicator of climate but the “cause” uses weather as such during heat waves.

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