- Polar vortex is an atmospheric circulation pattern that sits high above the poles
- Warm air moving into the Arctic can cause it to weaken and split into vortices
- These can bring colder temperatures and extreme weather to mid-latitudes
- Experts say split at the end of this month could cause severe weather in US
- The effects would likely come later in January and early February, experts say
By Cheyenne Macdonald For Dailymail.com
Published: 13:34 EST, 28 December 2018 | Updated: 14:25 EST, 28 December 2018
The Eastern United States could be in for a blast of frigid weather.
Activity in an Arctic climate pattern could send the polar vortex barreling towards more southern latitudes to envelop parts of North America, Europe, and Asia.
The phenomenon has led to extreme winter weather in recent years, including record low temperatures in the US back in 2014 and last year’s ‘Beast from the East’ in the UK.
While there’s still time for things to change, the models currently suggest a split in the high-altitude polar vortex will ring in the New Year, creating the potential for ‘more severe winter weather’ in the Eastern US in the weeks to follow.
The Eastern US could be in for a blast of frigid weather. Activity in an Arctic climate pattern could send the polar vortex barreling towards more southern latitudes to envelop parts of North America, Europe, and Asia. The illustration shows how a polar vortex reaches the US
The latest predictions come from Dr Judah Cohen, of Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER), and are supported by models from several other researchers shared in the last few weeks.
The polar vortex is an atmospheric circulation pattern that sits high above the poles, in a layer of the atmosphere called the stratosphere.
This structure can weaken as a result of abnormal warming in the poles, causing it to split off into smaller ‘sister vortices’ that may travel outside of their typical range.
As of the end of December, the models show the polar vortex situated above Scandanavia could break apart to become two or even three vortices, bringing colder weather to the mid-latitudes and warmer weather in the Arctic.
According to Cohen, ‘a stratospheric PV displacement or split is looking more and more likely during the last week of December and into the first week of January.’
As of the end of December, the models show the polar vortex situated above Scandanavia could break apart to become two or even three vortices, bringing colder weather to the mid-latitudes and warmer weather in the Arctic
Video playing bottom right…
Click here to expand to full page
The split higher up in the atmosphere could eventually cause a similar phenomenon to ‘drip’ down to the troposphere – the layer of the atmosphere closest to the surface, where most of our weather takes place.
This process generally takes about two weeks, Cohen explains in a blog post published this week.
A split in the polar vortex can give rise to both sudden and delayed effects, much of which involves declining temperatures and extreme winter weather in the Eastern US along with Northern and Western Europe.
‘A sudden stratospheric warming usually leads to a warm Arctic not only in the stratosphere but also at the surface as well,’ Cohen explains.
‘And a warmer Arctic favors more severe winter weather in the NH midlatitudes including the Eastern US.
While there’s still time for things to change, the models currently suggest a split in the high-altitude polar vortex will ring in the New Year, creating the potential for ‘more severe winter weather’ in the Eastern US in the weeks to follow. File photo
Read the full story here.
HT/Marcus
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Yup – I wrote this six weeks ago – it’s happening!
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/11/17/will-the-snowiest-decade-continue/#comment-2521702
Fair warning:
I’m calling down another very hard winter on the US Northeast, extending up into Canada.
The reason I’m doing this is that you deserve it. You continue to bleat about global warming, in a world that is about to get colder.
You continue to blather on about climate change and the need to eliminate fossil fuels – do that tomorrow and most of you will be dead within a month or two.
Fully 85% of global primary energy is fossil fuels and that number has not changed significantly in decades. Fossil fuel energy provides almost everything you need to survive in this complex world. It IS that simple!
So enjoy the bitter cold and snow this winter, good people, and maybe you will actually learn something.
Cold kills far more people then heat in the world today, probably about 2 million excess winter deaths per year.
Bundle up!
Same as this happened in the 1970s.
Just saying. Then we were told it portended the forthcoming ice age.
Maybe this time it does, with the sun going to sleep big time. Will be hard for the Climate Jihadis to relate solar activity to CO2, but I’m sure they will do their damnedest. I’m 67. The extremes of weather in my lifetime all occurred in the first 25 years of my life, wrt to droughts and cold winters.
I was thinking as I skimmed the article, how this happened in the 70s, and how Arctic ice simutaneously reached its recent maximum extent (’79). So much for warming the Arctic as the above implies.
They are Hydro-carbon fuels.
The same hydro-carbons found through out our solar system.
To most folks “hydro” indicates water.
Chemists will feel differently about this.
In any case, referring to the issue using “Carbon-base” fuel rather than fossil fuel (as most do) seems to better convey understanding for all. Consider diamond and graphite. It is the Carbon that contributes to CO2, not the Hydrogen.
Give it a rest, Kim and go on back to desmogblog and skepticalscience if you feel compelled to blather about your “hottest years evah” and sea ice horrors.
The El Niño is still around. There is a meter thoughtfully provided on the right. There is nothing remarkable about the temperatures around the world. It is true that lows have been moving up, raising the average, but it is not correct that the “hot places” are generally and measurably hotter.
The highs would have to rise significantly to match the late ’30’s, around the world. It was hotter back in the day.
The promised El Nino still hasn’t happened. And looking at this . . .
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/tlon_heat.gif
(as at 31/12/2018) is still at least a month away – maybe more.
An official El Nino is declared after the fact. We have had El Nino conditions in the Nino 3.4 area since mid September. This would need to hold through February for an official El Nino to be declared.
OTOH, the atmosphere has not coupled to the ocean conditions as of yet so this is not what some might call a real El Nino. Lately, the Nino 1-2 temperature has fallen sharply as well.
December should be the first month this warmth will have an effect on the UAH temperature. Will be interesting to see how much it goes up (if any).
My point is that it never stopped. I agree there are standard time periods used to declare an El Niño took place, there should be a corresponding period of “other conditions” to declare it over. It has been sitting on the warm side of neutral for months.
Those predicting a “big El Niño” are talking through their entrails. They know no such thing. If you shout El Niño or La Niña long enough, one occurs and you claim wisdom. Humbug.
your point?
maybe he is saying that we are carbon based organisms, living on a carbon based planet, in a carbon based solar system and we somehow think we are going to eliminate carbon.
Along with oxygen, hydrogen, nitrogen, calcium, phosphorous, potassium, sulfur, sodium, chlorine, magnesium, boron, chromium, cobalt, fluorine, iodine, iron, manganese, molybdenum, selenium, silicon, tin, vanadium. and zinc.
Oxygen is number 1 by far, carbon is number 2, and hydrogen number 3.
“Global warming,,” HAH!
“Activity in an Arctic climate pattern could send the polar vortex barreling towards more southern latitudes…”
I love the use of the word ‘barreling’, as if it’s contained in some sort of wind casket and once it’s started on the ‘weather ramp’ (or something), it goes rolling down the slopes toward the unsuspecting souls in its path, like a bunch of beer barrels falling off a beer truck. And some storms are like that, yes – something that is unstoppable and uncontrollable.
For forecasts, I’ve seen several from the rather limp meteorology site Accuweather, but they change their minds about the ‘where and when’ every few hours. The Almanacs have different opinions about it all, too, so it’s best to just keep a weather eye (pun intended) on the sky.
And right now, in my kingdom a few miles from the shores of Mishi-gami, it is chilly and raining. I think I will fix some more hot tea and settle in with a good book, cookies and a pot of hot tea.
Sara, nature is playing her cards close to the vest this year, as Cohen said in his forecast. There could be a robust polar vortex disruption or not. However, that goes, the North Pacific Blob of cold water is gone and the Bering ice is back.
https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2018/12/29/bering-ice-is-back/
Ron Clutz: “the North Pacific Blob of cold water is gone”.
I noticed a similar statement a week ago in your blog – at the second link above. My understanding, and that of almost everyone else including Cliff Mass, is that the NPB was an area of warm water not cold water. See:
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/12/sad-news-no-more-blob.html
Perhaps you can clarify this, Ron?
stonehenge, you are right, I misspoke (mistyped?) The BLOB was warm, the north pacific is now neutral to cooling.
Sara, I had the same thoughts when recent hurricanes were described as “barreling” toward the US, with forward speeds of less than 8 MPH. Even sailboats could move out of their way, unless blocked by land.
25 and snowing all day here in SW Colorado. 2-3 inches so far.
SR
Oh, good. You needed the moisture. Southwest Colorado was the part of the state with lower than average snowpack so far this year. All the other areas were significantly higher than average.
“Meantime 2018, even with the last el nino long gone”
Apparently you have failed to notice that there is an El Nino now?
There has been wishing for an El Nino now. Evidence seems to be it is that whatever it was – it is guzzling.
What’tz guzzeling?
warmer, colder and more of the same no matter how much you bleat.
Winter weather happens in January and February. Why, thank you Capt. Obvious! This is supposed to be NEWS . . . ? Pfft!
indeed. i wish the daily mail would be ignored on here.it is a sensationalist rag ,like much of what is left of the printed media in the uk that is in its death throes due to the internet. the only people in the uk that think “the beast from the east” was anything special are people with memory loss issues. the winter of 2010 was far worse and even that wasn’t a patch on several winters in the 80’s and 90’s.
The El Nino’s gone, but it’s not forgotten. Without a strong La Nina, it takes 3 or 4 years for the heat of an El Nino to fully dissipate.
And we can track it in colour (real pretty colours) 🙂
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2
Look at that finger of purple jutting into North Dakota. I live in Manitoba, just to the north. When I woke up this morning it was -30C with wind chill at -42C. It will go south and east, so button up in the Great Lakes region.
First, not anomalous since this has happened for as long as we have been keeping records. This is normal, regular behavior. Second, if we are still warming from the little ice age, of course the most recent years are warmer. Based on the ice core proxies from Greenland, we were warmer over most of the past 10,000 years than we are now, with a somewhat constant level of CO2. These data are supported by geologic measurements of the sea level, which was 3 meters higher 5,000 years ago. As a scientist, you have to be able to explain why this was, before you can blame CO2 for the recent warming. Anything else is just ignoring the true consensus of the scientific method.
Kym. Have you ever considered changing your first name to Notso?
“Within a few years rain will become “a very rare and exciting event”. Dr. Viner Climatic Research Unit
Winter, a time of cold weather, blah blah, lets discuss monkeys having sex out in the open.
I can’t see where your cold is coming from.
********************************************
usually from multiple thermometers….
10 deg F in mornings here and cold has not even really set in yet.
So what “rank” is 2018 in the last 3000 years? 40 years IS “just weather” on a climate scale.
“Meantime the vast majority of the rest of the planet is continuing to be warm, stinking hot in many places.” citation please and a definition “stinking hot” …
[gratuitous insults removed. Mod]
Sure, sure Kym. As long as NASA/NOAA keep jacking up the temperatures.
Kim Dim more like!
Cold coming? That will be “weather.” Now if it were warmer than usual, THAT would be global warming.
This too will be blamed on CO2, cause CO2 is now responsible for everything. Including volcanoes 🌋 and earthquakes.
They already have, that is what this article is about:
The message is clear: expect extreme cold weather due to manmade global warming.
I blame Donald.
Yes, but it’s the Russians who made him do it.
Will Pootin’s eevil never end?
“The message is clear: expect extreme cold weather due to manmade global warming.”
No, that is NOT was is being said.
“Abnormal warming” is exactly right and it can be “abnormal” due to natural variation.
The SPV is splitting because of a number of converging events.
All natural meteorological ones (with a bit of help from solar ones too)
None of which is higher CO2 concentration.
Read Judah Cohens Blog for the reasons please ….
https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/
The warming in the Arctic is a result primarily of increased water vapor in the troposphere resulting from the more recent El Nino’s.
The current warming of the SPV leading to disruption/splitting has nothing whatever to do with “increased WV.
the current warning in the stratosphere does not. The consistent warming in the troposphere does to a large extent.
Don’t know of a time we were guaranteed anything else. But it’s not due to man made global warming (or as some say “glo-bull warming”. 😉 Normally get down in the teens below zero – sometimes -20F and lower. It’s a roll of the dice as to what we get. I think every month but one in 2018 (here) has been cooler than last year by about 4-6degrees. Winter may be colder yet.
Not anthropogenic water vapor or something else not anthropogenic. Or not anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide radiative feedback extrapolated/inferred from an observation in isolation and realized through a global butterfly effect… Catastrophic or perhaps a natural cycle that is incompletely, and, in fact, insufficiently characterized, unwieldy, and recurring with indeterminate patterns.
I hope they come back with an update in a week or so, when they know if their models were correct.
They will always be right because they make vague conditional claims. How cold does it have to get for “frigid” to right/wrong ? It’s winter FFS.
If it is not cold, well they only said “could be”, with no indication of probability, so they were right anyway.
It works like fortune telling , you make your claims vague enough so that they can always fit what happens.
Getting in ahead of the game this year.
They laying the ground for “extremely cold winter weather caused by global warming”.
Weather situation in the US. The next wave of Arctic air over Montana is visible.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-62.96,35.63,631/loc=-68.630,36.678
At the time of posting , lots of cold air from Canada and Alaska barrelling down the west coast.
Really? I’m sitting at latitude 49 on the west coast and it’s warmer today than it’s been for weeks, sunny and windless.
@MODS: Does every comment have to go through moderation now on WUWT. I makes it very hard to have any kind exchange with other commenters.
Some replies are posted instantly. Some after several hours. A few have never seen the light of day, for reasons I cannot fathom, as they were on point, respectful, reasonable intelligent, non-religious, without objectionable language, succinct, logical, inoffensive, etc and etc. It would help to know if there are filters, or philosophical positions to avoid, or rules, or frequency limits, or . . .
Noticed that too. I think it’s the …
Below you can see the forecast of the stratospheric polar vortex. You can see that it is already very weak.
https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/stratosphere
Oddly enough, they blamed global cooling in the 70s for the wavy polar vortex. Today, they blame global warming. Whatever.
Visible temperature increase in the stratosphere at the level of 50 hPa.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/SSW/
Visible jumps of temperature in the stratosphere.
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole30_nh.gif
These jumps are related to periodic changes in the speed of the solar wind.
After a periodic increase in the speed of the solar wind, the temperature in the stratosphere decreases.
Interesting graphs. The reason behind you assertion is not clear.
It seems the top panel has a repetition of about 28.5 days, solar surface rotation I would guess. So this is “viewing” angle more than a change in solar output. But it still affects us as it varies from out “view point”.
In the lower graphs there seems to be a strong and very regular period of about 9h , what is that about? How are these measurement taken? Sampling frequency?
thx
Geomagnetic activity is important, i.e. the direct influence of the solar wind on the Earth’s atmosphere.
Do you see clear temperature jumps in the stratosphere? What do you think can cause such sudden jumps?
At 30mbar, it’s likely to be solar in origin. You referred specifically to “the speed of the solar wind” now it’s “geomagnetic activity”.
I thought you were making some specific claim. I guess you were just meaning solar.
You make a similar claim about ozone, it’s not clear what you are basing your claims on. Not saying you’re wrong, but just linking a graph an making an assertion is not something I’m going to believe and learn from.
Geomagnetic activity depends on the speed and density of the solar wind that hits the Earth magnetosphere.
My conclusions are based on real observations.
Suggest other.
If the warming reaches the troposphere in the arctic and we have northern blocking then I expect the surface temperature to fall and sea ice extent to increase as it did during last years SSW but the warming may not affect the troposphere as it did last year. Sea ice extent is declining presently with the strong polar vortex if this weakens then we will see sea ice extent increase I think.
Where is Arctic sea ice NOW?
http://masie_web.apps.nsidc.org/pub/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/latest/4km/masie_all_zoom_4km.png
We are looking at -2F -18.8C Tuesday Morning, normally around 15F, 9.4C, can’t wait to see how many neighbors I get to fix plumbing issues for this year.
This morning’s NWS Forecast has 50s for NW Ohio by tomorrow morning.
“Much warmer, especially over northwest Ohio with highs around 55 near Lima.”
The current distribution of ozone in the stratosphere indicates a severe winter in North America.
The jet stream will be high above the Bering Sea.
An oldie but a goodie:
Oh yes, that is one of the classics by Sean Thomas. There is more in that piece he wrote.
“When pressed on the particular outlook for the British Isles. Professor Sutton shook his head, moaned eerily unto the heavens, and stuffed his fingers into the entrails of a recently disembowelled chicken, bought fresh from Waitrose in Teignmouth.”
And
“For a final word, I turned to the greatest climate change scientist of all, Dr David Viner, one-time senior research scientist at the climatic research unit of the University of East Anglia, who predicted in 2000 that, within a few years, winter snowfall would become “a very rare and exciting event”.
However, he was trapped under a glacier in Stockport, so was unable to comment at the time the Telegraph went to press.”
http://www.politicalforum.com/index.php?threads/trust-our-scientists-because-they-know-lots-of-big-scary-words.307884/
PS. Speaking of whom, where is the esteemed Viner these days?. Does he have a view on developments?
Jones December 30 @ur momisugly 11.33pm
Speaking of whom, where is the esteemed Viner these days?. Does he have a view on developments?
See:
https://www.mottmac.com/careers/david-viner#
Stoic, thank you for that.
From his bio on the website:
“How has your career progressed at Mott MacDonald?
I have been able to grow in confidence since joining Mott MacDonald and if required, I know I can deliver further growth to the business and continue to ensure that Mott MacDonald is seen as a world leader in climate resilience.”
Hmm, well he made a very confident prediction in 2000 so one wonders where he stands in that confident prediction now?.
I also note that he is keen on business growth. Interesting. Might that include more international, business class air travel?
Also,
“By using a robust evidence base (no instinct or gut feelings from me!) I am confident that I can continue to make a meaningful impact at Mott MacDonald.”
Er….
More!
20 November 2012
Mott MacDonald appoints Dr David Viner as principal advisor for climate change
Mott MacDonald has appointed Dr David Viner as principal advisor for climate change. An internationally recognised expert, David brings with him 20 years of experience working in the area of climate change.
David worked for 17 years at the University of East Anglia’s (UEA) Climatic Research Unit, where he developed a worldwide reputation working across all areas of climate change. He led UK public engagement on climate change adaptation and advised both the UK government and international agencies. During this time he was also director of the UEA’s innovative climate change masters course.
In 2007 David took up a new position as Natural England’s principal climate change specialist where he developed an adaptation framework and indicators for climate change. In 2008 David was appointed global director at The British Council where he developed a ground breaking cultural relations strategy and programme that was delivered through 250 offices in 109 countries. Working across UK government departments and in collaboration with international agencies, businesses and national governments, the programme was publicly endorsed by the UK government, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and other leading agencies.
Mott MacDonald’s environment manager Ian Allison said: “We are delighted to welcome David to Mott MacDonald. Sustainability and climate change are important drivers for our business. As awareness of these issues increases, the consultancy is continuing to develop its services and skills to help in strategies for adaptation, mitigation and institutional reform to respond to these challenges. David’s outstanding expertise in areas such as water resources, agriculture and environmental systems together with his extensive publication record make his appointment a real coup for the company. His arrival signifies our growing business involvement in the area of climate change and commitment to this important sector.”
David contributed to the reports of the IPCC, which was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007. He is also an Honorary Lifetime Friend of the Countryside for his work on climate change and the European countryside. He has published over 100 papers and research reports and has undertaken numerous public lectures around the world.
Ends
For more information contact:
Do we need models to fore3cast this Polar Votex. What did they do before PCA’s ?
After all we laugh at the use of models when they forecast ever hotter weather, so why should we believe this lot ?
MJE
You do not have to believe. You can see.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=namer×pan=24hrs&anim=html5
Totally useless colour scale, it’s about the same colours at both ends. If you don’t know what to expect it be you won’t be able to read the graph.
Maybe it will help you? Level 500-300 hPa.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2m/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&layer=300-500&prod=namer×pan=24hrs&anim=html5
Here you can see much better.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=ak&product=wv-mid
Sorry.
Below is the current pattern of circulation in the stratosphere. Very low temperature in Asia.
looks set for polar air to stay well clear of UK for now 🙁
9C at the local US airbase..
I can be around the house all day shirtless, most days still, only when its windy as hell do the drafts force me to put the heating on before 6pm
This winter is milder so far than last years, i’m just 80 miles off-shore to the UK.
Bullocks. It’s the Nazis on the far-side of the Moon who are doing it.
Ha ha
And the Chinese will verify their presence come January 3rd!
So this may happen – or not. Nobody knows for sure, not even the models. Any statement from Gisele Bündchen?
This is how models are verified by models:
https://video.foxnews.com/v/5969103710001/?#sp=show-clips
Does a southern polar vortex experience similar instability? If so, what are the effects in that hemisphere?
Due to the fact that the magnetic field in the north has two centers, in contrast to the magnetic field in the south, it is easier to break the polar vortex in the north. The role of the magnetic field increases in the winter period with a decrease in geomagnetic activity.
http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/images/charts/jpg/polar_s_f.jpg
http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/images/charts/jpg/polar_n_f.jpg
Remember that down south your talking about a continent surrounded by oceans. There is a circumpolar current in the water that surrounds the Antarctic. Up north your talking about an ocean bordered by various land masses with various voids which results in a completely different situation.
It has only happened one there (that we know of), in Sept 2002.
So v unusual.
It’s to strong with little in the way of orography to divert planetary waves poleward.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JAS-3316.1
Anthony,
That is broadly correct as your link says:
“the SH midwinter warmings observed so far have been minor events following the definition for the NH. They were mainly a feature of the upper stratosphere, reaching comparable intensities to NH warmings (even major ones), but they did not lead to a breakdown of the normal winter circumpolar vortex.”
However, I would aver that increased waviness of the jets does occur in the SH as well as witness cold air incursions into New Zealand, Australia and South America.
CTM,
There is a “page not found” message for https://wattsupwiththat.com/…/from-the-cbc-who-will-rebuil…/
Joe Bastardi and his guys at weatherbell have been forecasting a very tough January and February for the eastern part of the US for months now. Though most of the eastern half of the country will be effected the coldest temperatures relative to the averages will be centered over or a little south of the Ohio Valley according to what they have been showing.
This hype about the polar vortex is just that. Such a weather pattern is nothing new and when I hear the term being used to try and sensationalize such a pattern I know what I’m dealing with.
Yup. Bastardi’s latest prediction says bitter cold starting in mid-Jan for much of US.
rah:
Yes many a Met organisation COULD have done that.
Certain +ve indicators were there.
However a state Met service needs to have a certain (high) probability of success in that “Forecast”.
I myself could have.
It cannot be high enough at that range to warrant a reasonable probability of success.
Thus we see the difference between a responsible Met Service and individuals seeking vaidation.
I thought it is the circumpolar vortex. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/13/its-the-circumpolar-vortex-not-the-polar-vortex-and-other-pr-deceptions/
This isn’t my field but in other disciplines it has become common to rediscover or rename old phenomena to start a new round of publishing. I suspect the polar vortex, circumpolar vortex, arctic cold front, blocking high, blocking pattern may or may not contribute to a spell of typical or somewhat atypical weather that may or may not develop this winter. Consider yourself warned.
Circulation in the upper troposphere in winter is a reflection of the stratospheric circulation.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/70hPa/orthographic=-344.09,86.87,331
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-344.09,86.87,331
Yup, 40-50 years ago it was the ‘Polar Express’.
And why does the polar vortex get displaced? Because of the effects of warming on the arctic.
and the Daily Mail has no credibility as a source of information, scientific or political.
Neither do you ! : )
griff: both statements are wrong as usual.
Aye, Mardler!
No, Griff is correct but he missed an important part.
AND it has nothing to do with the GHE.
See my post above.
It is the warming of the Arctic stratospheric vortex that will ultimately cause warming at the surface there, as cold arctic air is forced to spill to more mid-latitudes due HP forming there.
The warming in the SPV causes a reversal of winds (E’lies) aloft which eventually down-wells (usually but not always) through the troposphere, warms and creates an area of HP (-ve AO).
The Daily mail is second only to the Daily Express in terms of sensationalist rubbish where weather is concerned. Like all tabloids in the UK they are not interested in facts, just with selling papers.
Anthony
The Daily Mail was a bit sceptical of AGW under the editorship of Paul Dacre and printed some sound reports but he has now retired and the replacement appears to me to be more leftist, alarmist and sensationalist. I’ve switched to The Daily Telegraph.
AB: he is wrong about the DM and so are you.
Sorting the wheat from the undoubted chaff the DM has carried many excellent journalistic successes especially under Dacre.
This article isn’t DM research it’s a report on it.
“Sorting the wheat from the undoubted chaff the DM has carried many excellent journalistic successes especially under Dacre.”
That may be the case.
Some.
However as a retired UKMO meteorologist I know full well “rubbish” when written of meteorology/weather.
UK tabloids just love putting a sensationalist weather “story” on the front page.
It apparently garners them 10% more sales than otherwise.
There has been a LOT of rubbish written recently re snow/cold/beast from the east (NB: every E’ly has to be a BFTE).
The DE is the worst though, forever quoting a certain James Madden who runs a one-man-band show and has no meteorological qualifications.
the Daily Mail has no credibility as a source of information, scientific or political.
Correct, but only because no mainstream media, i.e. legacy media has any credibility in economics science or politics, they are worthless, atleast if they were printed on tissue they would be useful.
You could wipe your a$$ with their CC articles etc, you just cant do that with pixels.
“And why does the polar vortex get displaced? Because of the effects of warming on the arctic.”
Or, another theory says the Polar Vortex gets displaced during times of low activity on the Sun, like we are in now. This causes the troposphere to shrink and this causes the jet stream to form a wavy pattern.
There’s nothing to see here. Every year we can expect at least one, maybe two severe cold spells in the U.S. that last for a week or two. These severe cold spells (0 degree F) usually strike from January to February. So we are due for a cold snap or two. No CO2 required. It happens all the time.
“Or, another theory says the Polar Vortex gets displaced during times of low activity on the Sun, like we are in now. This causes the troposphere to shrink and this causes the jet stream to form a wavy pattern.”
It’s not a theory – it’s a fact.
JUST that it cannot do it alone.
The reduced UV in times of solar mins means that the tropical stratosphere is colder, and that reduces the Stratospheric W’ly jet a tad (less than 10 kt) so that helps when added to planetary wave breaking sent north, often by collision with mountain ranges. The Tibetan plateau being the most usual.
Things like an E’ly QBO (actually its a W’ly this year – so not favourable), and help from the ENSO phase + the MJO being in the central Pacific.
No one factor can do it alone.
Anthony,
You are following the established view that less UV at a time of quieter sun makes the entire stratosphere colder by reducing ozone creation at all heights and latitudes.
In fact there have been observations that above 45km there is an increase in ozone above 45km especially over the poles when the sun is less active.
That is the reason why there are more stratospheric warmings over the poles with more wavy jets and increased global cloudiness when the sun is less active.
The corollary is that one would expect less ozone above 45km over the poles when the sun is active and that is likely the cause of the past ozone hole panic rather than our CFCs.
The ozone hole is now reducing with the quieter sun as per my hypothesis and nothing to do with the Montreal Protocol.
The reverse sign ozone response above 45km over the poles is an elephant in the room and the logical implications are being ignored by the climate establishment.
Yet you believe and quote the guardian 🙂
Griff….the vortex makes the Arctic warmer…not the other way around
Latitude,
The polar vortex in the stratosphere is comprised of air descending from the mesosphere and warming by compression which makes the air above the poles warmer but it is still very cold.
The effect is to push down tropopause height above the pole which forces cold surface air outwards in an irregular wavy pattern but for every outward surge of cold surface air there is a corresponding poleward surge of warm surface air into the Arctic.
One must think in three dimensions and incorporate both the stratospheric polar vortex and the tropospheric circumpolar vortex. The writers of the paper appear not to make that clear, indeed they may be confused themselves.
“Griff….the vortex makes the Arctic warmer…not the other way around”
No the Vortex IS cold air.
Trapped within by the stratospheric/tropospheric westerly jets.
When they disrupt/split then HP can develop and push Arctic air south – warming the Arctic and making it much colder where the cold plunges end up.
Griff, you are full of it as usual.
In the 1970’s it was blamed on cold air. Now fiction has taken over and they blame it on warm air and Griff and company believe anything that comes from the warmistas.
fingers crossed here in the UK for this SSW. Seems to be the only time we get snow now.
A snowy spell in the UK has always been linked to warming of the stratosphere above the poles which results in higher pressure in the area between Greenland and Siberia which pushes cold Arctic surface air southwards.
Such stratospheric warmings are a regular phenomenon but tend to be more prevalent at times of less active sun such as now, 2010 and during the mid 20th century cooling period and the LIA.