Rex Murphy on the IPCC: you can’t have plural doomsdays – you only get one

The UN climate-change panel that cried wolf too often

You can’t set multiple deadlines for Doomsday. It’s a kind of one-off by nature. Do it too often and people cease to take notice or even care.

By Rex Murphy

Everybody loves the Apocalypse. The idea of the end of the world, the more imminent the better, has always had enthusiastic popular support. For as long as we’ve enjoyed life on this delightful Earth there has been a morose and righteous sect of one sort or another telling us the lease was nearly up, the doomsday bailiff coming any minute now to shut things down forever. And whether from the abrasive thrill of the message, or the melodrama of the scenario, people have lapped it up.

Indeed there is a whole category of philosophy devoted to that time when the world in flame and fire renders itself into ash, when time stands still, life evaporates into eternity and all is dead and cold. It is impressively called eschatology — the study of The Four Last Things. Not, as might be facilely assumed, Feminism, Ecowarts, Don Lemon and WE Day, but the rather more appetizing quartet of Death, Judgment, Heaven and Hell. It is the four last things, not the four most annoying.

As an attention-getter, The End is Near is right up there with the fabled cry of “Fire” in a crowded theatre. Identical really, as claiming the world is about to end any moment now is the loudest possible cry of “Fire” in the largest possible theatre of all. The call does gather a crowd. Under the spell of lunatic prophets belching Armageddon, people have done the craziest things — crowded on mountain tops or gone off into the torrid desert — to await the end, only, of course, in the end (that never happens) to be disappointed.

Its enchantment never fades. However often it proves hollow, there is always another set ready to take it up. (It’s like the Quebec referendum: if at first you don’t secede, try, try again. Sorry.) Summoning the shadow of universal doom has advanced many a fretful cause, spawned numerous sects, and wrought tribulation and anxiety in the minds of men since ancient times.

Religious pretenders, in particular, have demonstrated a fondness for the imagery and idea of extinction and collapse and none quite so gluttonously as the modern sectarians of the environmental movement. They have been throwing out scares of population bombs, famine, extinction, wars, world floods, vast migrations and — the favourite — imminent and absolute global ecological collapse for decades now. It would take a master of the abacus to tot up how many “deadlines” and “last chances” and “tipping points” and “if-we-don’t-act-NOW-it-will-be-too lates” the world has been teased with, whether from Prince Charles on his private train, sundry ecological anchorites, or the pursed pious lips of the “we’re-here-to-save-you, send-in-your-money-now” megacorp fundraising machines of Greenpeace, the Sierra Club and all their green ilk.

None however, have more versatility with the alarm bells of the apocalypse than the annual gatherings of the Gotterdammerung club, the Infinite Projectors of Climate Collapse, the assembly of existential dread known as the IPCC. For them, as Paris was for terse Hemingway, the end of the world is a moveable feast. For near three decades now they have held their annual jumbo jamborees. And every year the news is worse, the threats are greater, and it is always just a hair’s breadth from being too late. The scene is always the same. A keening goes around the assembled multitude of worshippers as a fresh and even more definitive deadline than any of the past 20 or 30 for Saving the Planet as inscribed in The Book of Climate Revelations.

The IPCC enjoys a delightfully recurrent state of despair over the world’s imminent collapse, which happily coincides with the release of each annual report. This is not without some burden of paradox. Had the world come close to ending when and as many times as its green sages have foretold, there wouldn’t be enough of it left to hold their next conference. An extinction event “devoutly to be wished.”

Things are looking, unsurprisingly, down. 2100 used to be the final frontier. It’s been moved up some 70 years to 2030. And we’ve lost half a degree. The new threshold is 1.5, where we used to have the full comforts of a whole two degrees. Other good news. No one is living up to their commitments. Even the most sanctimonious on the subject.

The greener-than-thou Canada of Mr. Trudeau and Ms. McKenna it has been noted is singing all the hymns in the right key and enjoys a friendly smile from the preacher, but $10 a tonne, $20 a tonne, even $50 dollars a tonne won’t cut it. And they know it. To be true to their own sermonizing, Mr. Trudeau and his Cabinet colleague would have to deal with the United Nations report that estimated governments would need to impose effective carbon prices of $135 to $5,500 per ton of carbon dioxide pollution by 2030 to keep overall global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius.

And Canadians will see that when grand pianos take wing and Donald Trump is invited for a few beers over a weekend at Harrington Lake to pick up a few tips about the best restaurants in Mumbai for his next trip to the subcontinent. The Liberal government’s fabled plan, by the IPCC reckoning, is actually more of a ploy.

The trouble with apocalypses is that they can’t be plural. You only get one by definition

The trouble with apocalypses is that they can’t be plural. You only get one by definition. Neither can you set multiple deadlines for Doomsday. It’s a kind of one-off by nature. Do it too often and people cease to take notice or even care.

Everyone knows the sad story of Cassandra, the woman given the gift of true prophecy by the gods and simultaneously cursed to have no one believe her. The IPCC’s problem, up to now, is like that but reversed. Always off, but generously credited. I think that string has run out. They can play Wagner and whistle the Ride of the Valkyries all they want from here on. People are tired of that music, and sick of the band.

Full essay at the National Post

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October 12, 2018 10:20 pm

After forty years of Doomsdays coming and going benignly, we are seeing yet more proof that the Earth and its Climate are remarkably stable and very regular. Responding to the threat abatement, New Zealand has banned the sale of homes to foreigners after too many people started treating the island like a doomsday hideout

Reply to  nicholas tesdorf
October 12, 2018 10:53 pm

NZ is a clean, beautiful and magnificent place with a very low population density. You don’t need to be a prepper to what to live there, but you probably will need an external source of income.

I can understand them wanting to maintain the low population density.

Reply to  Greg
October 12, 2018 11:25 pm

Taupo can take care of that in one shot.

Reply to  tweak
October 12, 2018 11:48 pm

There has been ash found down in Chch from a previous eruption in the Taupo area.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  mikebartnz
October 13, 2018 12:25 am

Taupo was several orders larger than Krakatoa. It’s a real interesting site to explore. I once used to work for a company that “managed” a lahar monitoring system on Mt. Ruapehu.

Rob R
Reply to  mikebartnz
October 13, 2018 3:09 am

Something that is not hot in NZ: Lots of earthquakes, some of them being very intense.

John Tillman
Reply to  mikebartnz
October 13, 2018 5:14 pm

The VEI 8 Taupo eruption of c. 27 Ka was about two orders of magnitude greater than VEI 6 Krakatoa. Possibly rounding to three orders.

In the past more than 300,000 years, the only more powerful eruption was the larger VEI 8 Toba, credited with almost wiping out humanity. Not only did it eject more than twice as much material, but more sulfur compounds, and it was closer to the Equator (~2 degrees N vs ~38 S).

No larger eruption is known until you go back to ~340 Ka, which was also of supervolcano Taupo.

Two out of the three biggest volcanic events in the past 340,000 years isn’t bad. Unless you happen to be living on North Island the next time it blows.

Not as bad as living near Yellowstone when it goes off, but still, not droll.

John Tillman
Reply to  mikebartnz
October 13, 2018 8:30 pm

Failed to mention that the alleged killer Toba eruption has most recently been estimated to have occurred ~77 Ka.

Reply to  Greg
October 12, 2018 11:31 pm

Tarawera went from “Hello” to full on in about 2 hours. North Island has some spooky stuff underneath it.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Tweak
October 13, 2018 12:25 am

Sure does. That eruption buried the famous Pink and White terraces.

Martin Hovland
Reply to  nicholas tesdorf
October 13, 2018 12:44 am

A great analysis. The last IPCC report seems to be the last one to come out. They have now shot their own toes off. Before 2040, the report demands that all combustion motors be silenced, all over the world, from diesel engines to gas turbines. Are we ready for that? Do we have enough alternative mobile energy sources? No, – not at all. So, it means that they have pointed us in the wrong direction. None of us any more believe this new and horrifying narration. It is pure science fiction they are preaching. They have gone to the utter extreme, and 2030 / 2040 is near, – it is laughable. IPCC is from now on TOAST!

old construction worker
Reply to  Martin Hovland
October 13, 2018 2:48 am

‘Do we have enough alternative mobile energy sources? No,..’ Darn, no real “Flux Capacitor”, no real “Mr. Fusion”.

Reply to  old construction worker
October 13, 2018 3:05 am

Yes but the DeLorean still needed gasoline. Even in the far future of 2015..

Tom in Florida
Reply to  F.LEGHORN
October 13, 2018 6:20 am

Yup, it still needed gas to get up to 88 mph for the flux capacitor to activate.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Martin Hovland
October 13, 2018 4:58 am

“They have gone to the utter extreme”

It doesn’t get more extreme than their trying to kill the internal combustion engine overnight, and calling for a $240 per gallon CO2 tax on gasoline and for spending 122 Trillion Dollars!! on Green infrastructure.

It’s crazy talk. Good luck talking the average citizen into going along with this madmess.

Michael Whelan
Reply to  Tom Abbott
October 13, 2018 5:25 am

Time to get out the nooses.

Reply to  Martin Hovland
October 13, 2018 6:09 am

Not, as might be facilely assumed, Feminism, Ecowarts, Don Lemon and WE Day, but the rather more appetizing quartet of Death, Judgment, Heaven and Hell. It is the four last things, not the four most annoying.”

I just had to complement the author on one funny line, right there – that made me LOL!!!

Reply to  wws
October 13, 2018 9:07 pm

Rex is a real Canadian gem. He can turn a phrase better than anyone at the same time as stabbing his opponents in the back.

Reply to  Martin Hovland
October 13, 2018 11:39 am

Rex Murphy is a national treasure. And to think that he once worked for the dreadful CBC.

No wonder he left.

John Darrow
Reply to  Klem
October 13, 2018 4:52 pm

He is a treasure indeed.
And even when he was being paid by the CBC he used to ‘yank their chain’.
His ‘dissertations’ were the only ‘shows’ I used to watch on our, left wingnut, ‘National Broadcaster’

John Tillman
Reply to  Klem
October 13, 2018 4:58 pm

You’re also blessed with another treasure, Mark Steyn, although he went to school in the UK and lives in the US (although close to Canada).

Reply to  nicholas tesdorf
October 13, 2018 7:02 am

After forty years….believe it or not…it’s been over 100 years

Pop Piasa
Reply to  nicholas tesdorf
October 13, 2018 5:54 pm

The world’s largest and most expensive gated community, maybe?

October 12, 2018 10:21 pm

Of course, it is the run up to this December’s IPCC meeting!

Were it not for this doomsday oriented Press coverage, how could legions of delegates justify $800 per night Hotel rooms, and let’s not forget the gourmet meals either!

Hang onto your hats! They have just announced a “Climate Summit” for this September, realizing in advance that this meeting too, will mandate another round of $900 per night Hotel rooms (inflation, of course), and let’s not forget the rising costs of gourmet meals either!

Notice how the participation and “solution” costs keep on rising at an accelerated pace, while sea levels refuse to cooperate!

Reply to  tomwys
October 13, 2018 1:12 am


You failed to also mention the $1000 per night….er….ladies of ill repute….


Poor Richard, retrocrank
Reply to  Jones
October 13, 2018 2:11 am

Those are “feminine personal service providers . . . ” please get your terminology straight. (grin)

Reply to  Jones
October 13, 2018 5:26 am

Be nice, “Night shift workers”

Pop Piasa
Reply to  Jones
October 13, 2018 6:16 pm

Now, now, be PC and include the women delegates needing escorts.

Reply to  tomwys
October 13, 2018 5:16 am

Im sure all those gourmet meals were of the vegan variety too.

Tom in Florida
Reply to  Ack
October 13, 2018 6:23 am

But I hear the salted pork is particularly good.

Warren in New Zealand
Reply to  tomwys
October 13, 2018 7:54 pm

Ladies of negotiable affection please

October 12, 2018 10:23 pm

It amazes me that anyone takes any notice now after so many false prophecy’s.

Reply to  mikebartnz
October 13, 2018 1:00 am

One thing that has changed, at least in the UK, is that doubt has been banished, though not sure what difference that will make, it may even generate more doubt in the public.

Reply to  mikebartnz
October 13, 2018 4:36 am

There are always new converts coming along@ four births each second of every day.

Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy
October 12, 2018 10:24 pm

Plan minimizing power consumption. Make people plan use of computers to a minimum by corporate network. Make the corporates to minimize the power for lighting. In these cases keep a tab and increased the rate of power charges. Make them to use solar power.

Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy

Old England
October 12, 2018 10:37 pm

Given that we know that the Medieval Warm Period was around 1 C Hotter, the Roman Warm Period around 1.5 C Hotter and rhe Minoan Warm Period around 2C Hotter than the 1980s does the IPCC think we are stupid?

Civilisation flourished in those periods that were 1-2 C Hotter than the IPCC’s latest doomsday temperature. So where, apart from the ignorance and stupidity of the ‘scientists’ and money grubbing eco activists, is there anything to fear in a further rise of 0.5C.

This IPCC scare scam is total nonsense dreamed up by alarmist fantasists and contains the seeds of the death of the IPCC and it’s climate con.

Reply to  Old England
October 12, 2018 10:48 pm

They don’t care if we are stupid or not. It is only important that the politicians, MSM, “opinion makers” and the international bankers are either stupid, or in on the con.

Old England
Reply to  Retired_Engineer_Jim
October 12, 2018 10:58 pm

Jim, an excellent reason to do all we can to inform as widely as possible about the MWP, RWP and Minoan WP to put this ludicrous scare in its true context.

Reply to  Old England
October 12, 2018 10:56 pm

“does the IPCC think we are stupid?”

That’s a stupid question !

Reply to  Old England
October 13, 2018 12:10 pm

I am in total agreement with you Old England.
These so called scientists and politicos have mush for brains.
If the main world governments attempted to impose these crazy so called solutions on their countries they will cause widespread disruption and poverty .
These people pushing this nonsense have absolutely no idea how the world economy works and for that matter how individual countries economies work .
Every single item in the supermarket depends on fossil fuel to grow , process or manufacture and to transport by truck , ship or plane .
Even a ten year old can reason that as you increase the cost of energy every item has to increase in cost until the poorer people cannot afford basics and then the well off start getting squeezed as all prices increase until only the very wealthy are able to afford to live comfortably.
The voting public will vote these governments out as the famous saying goes ‘ You can fool most of the people some of the, some of the people all of the time but you can’t fool all of the people all of the time”

Wallaby Geoff
Reply to  Gwan
October 13, 2018 5:54 pm

In Australia, we are soon to vote a socialist government in! How stupid are we! Please don’t answer that I’m embarrassed enough.

Gary Pearse
Reply to  Wallaby Geoff
October 13, 2018 8:42 pm

Geoff, don’t you be embarassed, your on the luminous side. However, it wont be long before Australia is the last holdout in the International Clime Syndicate it seems. Cheerleaders of the ruse, Germany and UK, have pretty much wrapped it up. They know that without the United States of A footing the bill, there can simply be no тотаliтагуаи Klimate Kumbayah. The best way to look at it after 30yrs of marxymeningutis is Trump cancelled CAGW with a a few words and a smile, holding thumb and index finger a few mm apart to show what we are in for with sealevel rise.

It has been my impression that Australia has an order of magnitude more “clisci” types than any other country. It would be good to get an actual roll call. When John ‘Crook’wrote the 97% consensus study, the big news to me wasnt the silly study, but rather that he had reviewed absracts from over 11,000 published papers put out in one decade!!!! Assuming they were only written on work days, 1100 papers published a yr is 6 paoers a day!!! Struth! And they have one linear formula to cope with and the science hasn’t changed in 40years.

Rick C PE
October 12, 2018 10:38 pm

Wolf. Wolf! Wolf! WOLF!!
Damn it, I said wolf, why isn’t anyone listening?

Reply to  Rick C PE
October 13, 2018 1:47 am

Exactly! People might care about global warming but the shit will hit the fan when you ask them to make major disruptions in order to save themselves from a climate whose change is so mild and so in line with historical variations. I think a lot of people will stop and question the whole thing more closely when it threatens to hit hard in the pocketbook.

So far the “climate” has been one of the suppression of dissenting voices. When push comes to shove we might hear those voices much louder, and quite angry.

It wasn’t the greenies who elected Trump. Surprise. They’re out there, folks.


Reply to  Rick C PE
October 13, 2018 11:05 am

Here Wolfy! Nice warm Wolfy! Come on, boy!

October 12, 2018 10:40 pm

Watch out

Doomsday is

Coming Soon

If not today

tomorrow at noon

Burma Shave

Greg Woods
Reply to  JohnWho
October 13, 2018 4:06 am

As a kid I remember those Burma Shave ads along Route 66

Reply to  Greg Woods
October 13, 2018 7:06 am

Think I saw them on Route 1 and maybe Route 13 on Delmarva Peninsula.

JJM Gommers
Reply to  JohnWho
October 13, 2018 8:30 am

Where I can buy a ticket?

October 12, 2018 10:45 pm

Be careful – referring to “Feminism, Ecowarts, Don Lemon and WE Day” as the four most annoying things (as true as it may be) can get you into trouble. The shouting heads on Don’s CNN show will not be amused.

Malcolm Carter
Reply to  Retired_Engineer_Jim
October 13, 2018 11:57 am

One of the best things about Rex Murphy is that he calls it as he sees it. He understands the issues and appears to be oblivious to any push back from the hyperzealots.

October 12, 2018 10:46 pm

It’s like the Quebec referendum: if at first you don’t secede, try, try again.

I like that. Very clever.

Reply to  Greg
October 13, 2018 10:26 am

“It’s like the Quebec referendum: if at first you don’t secede, try, try again. Sorry.” – GRRRROOOOOAAAAAANNNNNNNNN

Made my day as a fellow Canuck but the more accurate version ends with “fail, fail again”.

October 12, 2018 10:48 pm

Ah, preach it Rex…

High Treason
October 12, 2018 11:04 pm

We laugh at the flagrant BS and cries of doom and gloom that societies in the past have fallen for and used as excuses to eliminate political foes. We like to think we had outgrown such superstitions of days gone by, but alas, we are being conned yet again-big time.

Future generations will LAUGH at us idiots in the current era and say what a pack of fools we were to believe that human CO2 that has probably added less than 100ppm -1/10,000 th of the atmosphere was going to cause the world to burn in flames. Those future generations will shake their heads at their crazy ancestors that destroyed everything and allowed their entire technology and energy based civilization and society to collapse in to oblivion because they refused to call out flagrant BS.

Looking back in history, of all the flagrant BS to be shoved down people’s throats, the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming/ “climate change” hoax would have to be one of the most absurd and blatant hoaxes ever perpetrated on humanity.

Michael Noll
Reply to  High Treason
October 13, 2018 12:24 am

It never stops. That future generation has a group trying to frighten it to death over the dangers of fluoride in water. “We must remove fluoride” they scream “or the Earth’s mantle will suffer a irresistible meltdown”.

Reply to  Michael Noll
October 13, 2018 2:16 am

Not everything the greens say is total nonsense. Fluoride is not a nutrient in any sense of the word (despite attempts to prove it is, it ain’t, folks) and I’d argue that there’s compelling evidence that it’s harmful to the body and especially to young children. No one needs fluoride for good teeth, and if you think you do then simply use fluoridated toothpaste.

Fluoride in water was originally a waste product from phosphate mining, a product that would otherwise be a hazardous waste if it could not be farmed out to municipalities.

The earth’s mantle will not meltdown from fluoride but my guess is that any reasonable person, after reviewing all the evidence, would have to agree that the harms of water fluoridation outweigh the (supposed) benefits.

I used to think my sister-in-law was bonkers for opposing water fluoridation. I was wrong.

In fact, my friends, fluoridated water was what got me down this rathole of recognizing that things are not what they seem, even though the authorities scream at you if you disagree. Does this sound familiar to anyone?


Reply to  Don
October 13, 2018 8:58 am

Doubtless you are aware that teeth are composed of calcium fluorophosphate … the body needs fluorine for a healthy apatite.

Reply to  Bob Burban
October 13, 2018 10:42 am

But that is not what they are adding to the water. Check out the link to that he posted. I’ve changed my mind on several issues like fluoride in the water supply and global warming.

If you can find anyone to publicly debate Dr Paul Connett, PhD, please let him know. He thought nothing of the issue until he looked into it at his wife’s insistence then got so mad that he travelled the country on his time & dime to debate anyone from the pro-fluoride side.

The pro-fluoride side learned quickly not to debate the issue with him and emails even were leaked that said “whatever you do do not debate them publicly”. Not only can Dr Connett debate the technical issues with other PhD chemists but he can turn around and explain to the audience what was just said in plain english.

Reply to  Bob Burban
October 13, 2018 12:06 pm

It’s like debating the anti-Vaxxers. They throw up phoney studies faster than they can be shot down.

Gary Pearse
Reply to  Don
October 13, 2018 9:05 pm

Don, we get fluoride in wheat germ/bran and other grains and in a host of other natural and food sources. A teaspoon of dirt basically has all 92 elements in it – the same folks who want to tuft the globe with windmills are those scaring us about all the other things.

Yes you can have too much of anything. A lethal dose of organic orange juice will kill you. That said, the spin part of the story doesnt compute. 250 billion metric tonnes of Phosphate rock is produced a year globally. Yeah Im sure they market what they can of byproducts but that isnt a game changer for them. Oh I’m sure you have outraged links on all this. The biggest danger to our wellbeing is the fear mongering and what the fearmongers have planned for us once we submit.

Reply to  Michael Noll
October 13, 2018 10:34 am

You may want to check out Dr Paul Connett, PhD over at

There is zero proof that adding fluoride to the water supply improves dental health. Nothing that stands up to scrutiny.

The best the pro-fluoride side could come up with after a 10+ year study of 80 counties and close to 40,000 people as 0.6 of a tooth surface less damage in fluoridated communities. With over 100 tooth surfaces in the average mouth that is not statistically significant.

What does work? The glass or ceramic coating they put on kids teeth. Now that works great in study after study.

Joel O’Bryan
October 12, 2018 11:07 pm

Yes, you can have multiple Apocalypses.
You can because too many people today in our technological society are as stupid as a cow.
Everytime a cow blinks, it’s a new day for the cow.
No long-term memory. No applocation of critical, skeptical inquiry.

In the US, the Democrat’s base proves this cow-like memory thesis every day. And the Democrat’s are building the educational system to perpetuate a cow-like ignorance for generations to come.

Louis Hooffstetter
Reply to  Joel O’Bryan
October 13, 2018 4:09 am


Reply to  Joel O’Bryan
October 14, 2018 7:26 am

Go easy on the cow. Nietzsche’s “throwness” is what is being cultivated – pure fas-cism.
As Trump said yesterday do not give the Dems matches!
(Don’t know but maybe referring to the Reichstags-brand -arson in Berlin 1933?)

Donald Kasper
October 12, 2018 11:08 pm

Apocalypse is just Fear of Death.

Brent Hargreaves
Reply to  Donald Kasper
October 13, 2018 3:06 am

That may be the origin of the word but we know what Apocalypse means.

John Tillman
Reply to  Brent Hargreaves
October 13, 2018 1:28 pm

The origin of the word is Greek for “revelation” (apo- “after” and kalupto “I cover”). Its present meaning in English derives from the “apocalyptic” visions in the Book of Revelation (of “John”), last of the New Testament.

Not to be confused with the nymph Kalupso or Calypso, whose name is from the same root.

John F. Hultquist
October 12, 2018 11:10 pm

Of the many things Canadians should treasure,
Rex is right up there with Polar Bears, and the land itself.

Rhys Kent
October 12, 2018 11:31 pm

Rex’s cogent disputation is matched by his inimitable style. Watching him deliver his thoughts on CBC television is always a treat.

October 12, 2018 11:43 pm

No one I know of can write (or talk) like Rex. He can speak more wisdom in fewer words with greater elegance than anyone I have read. And that subtle sarcasm! It’s the Newfie in him.

October 12, 2018 11:50 pm

To prove how utterly tone deaf the Democrat Party is there newest ranting squirrel Cortez wants to shut down all fossil fuel . Yep not just coal miners … the whole fossil fuel industry . Bye bye economy hello mass genocide .
Quoting an IPCC study sponsored by the globalist industry ,climate con-man and representing virtue signalers
Cortez waves her finger and puts down the singe greatest thing that has advanced life on earth .
Someone didn’t get Hillarie’s memo on the ways she peed away a sure thing election .
The disgraceful Democrats need a good long time out to grow up .

Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7
Reply to  Amber
October 13, 2018 6:01 am

I always wonder whether this is just typical politician behavior: say whatever you think will get you airtime and votes with no genuine conviction or intention of actually following through. Or whether these statements are an accurate reflection of what that person actually believes and intends.

15% of the coal mined worldwide each year goes into the production of new steel. Now I cannot predict the outcome of today’s college football games, or the coming midterm elections, and certainly not what “the climate” will do over the next 30 years. But I can predict one thing with near certainty: absent a worldwide economic collapse production of steel is not going to decline. Not in the next 10, 20, 30 or 50 years. Steel is the single most useful material human civilization has developed to date; in 2014 the world produced 1.6 billion (10E9) metric tons of it. Aside from a general economic collapse the only thing that could reduce steel production is the emergence of a superior material.

Not to mention as David Middleton has pointed out, over 2 billion people have enough to eat because of fertilizers produced from natural gas using the Haber-Bosch process.

Anyone who actually believes we can stop using fossil fuels completely without reverting to 18th century technology and living standards simply does not grasp the scale of modern industrial civilization and what it takes to keep it going.

Reply to  Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7
October 13, 2018 4:19 pm

Doesn’t “18th century technology” almost entirely depend on fossil fuel too?

Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7
Reply to  Shelly
October 15, 2018 5:43 am


Just starting to. In Europe anyway the primary heating fuel was still wood, but coal was widely used in England by the late 18th century. Blast furnaces using coal began to produce iron in England starting in 1700; prior to that charcoal was the fuel. But the steam engine did not become a factor until the 19th century. Transportation was dependent on animal and wind power.

The first experiments with “town gas” for lighting took place in the very late 18th century; prior to that it was vegetable oil lamps or candles (tallow or beeswax).

So the beginnings of the fossil fuel transition occurred during the 18th century, but the large-scale effects were not felt until after 1800.

If we went back to the way almost everyone lived in Europe from 1700-1799 we would be using very little fossil fuels. We would also be poor, sick, cold and starving.

Reply to  Amber
October 13, 2018 7:05 am

ocasio/hogg 2020 make Jonestown geat again!

Reply to  gnomish
October 13, 2018 10:11 am

LOL ……… ocasio/hogg 2020 …… gore, hillary, pelosi, feinstein, obama, etc. …. hell …. the list of left wing political nutcases goes on almost endlessly so it’s entirely possible.

The thought is funny but scary that it could happen and a nightmare that they may have a chance of getting elected. We are living in the fringes of the twilight zone.

October 13, 2018 12:29 am

… Prince Charles on his private train …

Canada really has to get rid of the monarchy. Past that, I’m invoking my mother’s dictum that, if you can’t say something nice, don’t say anything (no matter how funny you think it is).

John Tillman
Reply to  commieBob
October 13, 2018 2:37 pm

Oz might stage another vote on going republican after ERII goes to her reward. If Oz votes the monarchy out, then Canada might follow suit.

Elizabeth is popular. Her jug-eared twit son, not so much.

October 13, 2018 12:32 am

My one regret is that I did not visit the Maldives while they were still there????

David Chappell
Reply to  nankerphelge
October 13, 2018 2:29 am

Don’t worry, they are low in the water but not in danger of sinking (except for the weight of tourists).

Reply to  David Chappell
October 13, 2018 7:18 am

what if they capsize?

Reply to  David Chappell
October 13, 2018 9:02 am

“Don’t worry, they are low in the water but not in danger of sinking (except for the weight of tourists)”. Think tsunami..

Gary Pearse
Reply to  Bob Burban
October 13, 2018 9:14 pm

Theyve been low in the water forever. They must have experienced a few. Anyway CO2 isnt to blame.

Ben Vorlich
October 13, 2018 12:37 am

The thing about the IPCC We’re All Doomed fests is that they finish having reached an agreement which will save the world and which they all joyously congratulate each other about.

Only to return and do it all again a little while later.

I haven’t worked out if they truly believe the agreements will do what they want, if they are horribly disappointed to come back and do it all again. But most importantly why the repeated optimism that the latest agreement will be adhered to by anyone.

October 13, 2018 1:58 am

Surely we are already past the tipping point and drowning in those yet to be shed boiling acid tears of our future generations because we will not (or can not) pay the $122trillion the UN says we should pay to save the planet.
Pay the money or build ever more insane CCS facilities with large quantities of borrowed money – money the generation after the next one will fail to repay. Or totally halt all production of CO2 now, thus stopping all economic movement, stopping all trade. and give the future generations the gift of a double-speak utopian world of UN administered socialism with the murderous smile of an unelected collective conscience.

Mike Maguire
October 13, 2018 2:02 am

It’s crazy to think that the path leading to predicted increasing droughts and crop failures would be decreasing drought, a greening planet and bin busting record crops and world food production.

You don’t get to one extreme by going to the opposite extreme.

The honest/objective response to these observations would be to at lest stop projecting the opposite of what’s happening.

Don Perry
Reply to  Mike Maguire
October 13, 2018 5:21 am

Sadly, some of those “bin busting record crops” are now threatened by snow and freezing temperatures.

Peta of Newark
October 13, 2018 2:32 am

I’ll go with what Donald K said – It’s the fear of death
Puritan style religion? Always made to feel guilty about something/anything/everything

If anyone *does* find something ‘nice’ to do (= a source of Dopamine) – it will be relentlessly controlled and taxed.
Think alcohol, nicotine and all other recreational drugs upon which A War is constantly being waged upon
Driving your car (burning of fossils) is beautifully exemplified in UK at least when you go to buy the mandatory insurance.
The question form will ask first and foremost what you will use the vehicle for and for ‘normal’ punters, the answer will be “Social, domestic & pleasure”
See that?
Somebody gets enjoyment out of driving.
Tax it till the pips squeak. Wrap so many rules, fines, punishments and endorsements around that everyone is made to feel guilty just by owning a vehicle, well before they actually sue it.
And all that is still not enough. Hence 240 $$$ gallon tax on fuel.
(Have they no self awareness? What *has* gone wrong here?)

The Knut (Canute if you prefer) story is interesting.
Supposedly a wise and benign ruler, knowledgable of his own limits and weaknesses.
So he adopts Christianity – the ‘guilt’ religion as opposed to the plethora of Good-Time-Gods we had previously.
So he (the king) could/would be God’s representative down here on Earth. Hence, if you upset The King, you are upsetting God and thence The King is entitled to deliver God’s punishment.

And so he did.
Canute was a vicious and murderous little rat – witness what he did in Wessex. Right up there with Saddam when it came to chopping up people. Literally.

Any parallels here.

To my mind, what makes it very worrying this time around is that they are enacting ‘remedies’ to try save themselves.
The worst remedy of all, the true crime against God, Life, the universe and everything, is the burning of the trees and the plants. It will accelerate the arrival of the next Ice Age.

How wrong could they be? Hell is not a hot place after all.
It is actually & literally, perishingly cold.

Check out Mars if you don’t believe me and assuming The Sputnik is still flying.
NASA is rapidly becoming A Joke and National Embarrassment – do you *still* believe them about what causes Global Greening or, have you become just a wee bit skeptical?

Oh did you see that. The Windows 10 October upgrade was postponed because, this is unreal, it ripped through your PC deleting everything you’d ever put there.

Ain’t that gorgeous. Especially how ‘Technology will Save Us All’
Riiiiiight. Just like a hole in the head will. (Sorry, I got back onto gasoline tax there)

Peta of Newark
Reply to  Peta of Newark
October 13, 2018 2:35 am

sue the vehicle. haha What am I like?
Government maybe….

(see how bad it is, this came from Windows 8 with its updater disabled)

Poor Richard, retrocrank
October 13, 2018 2:43 am

I’m old enough to have read the apocalyptic eco-lit from the 1960s and 1970s when it was published: Limits to Growth, The Population Bomb, etc. NONE of them were right. Collectively, the authors were badly in need of a physic, full of more potential fertilizer than a Christmas goose.

And yet I believed it . . . for a time. Shame on me.

And the press colludes with the purveyors of gloom and doom. One of the most egregious examples was an interview of James Hansen done some years ago by Scott Pelley on 60 Minutes. “We’re at a tipping point,” Hansen say, most solemnly. He says it several times during the piece. Not once did Pelley inquire: “How do you know we’re at a tipping point? Can you show me the data, the theory, whatever it is you have that successfully predicts this tipping point?” And neither does Pelley say: “Jim, could I have a peek in your tobacco pouch? ‘Cause you seem to have tied into some really good stuff, and I’d like a couple of hits.”

Michael Crichton put it neatly in State of Fear. If you’re at a gathering and somebody ask you: Hey, how do you think it’s going, and you say Pretty Good; they’ll say That’s Nice and turn away. But if you say “It’s bad, and it’s gonna get worse,” you’ll soon have a group gathered round, paying rapt attention. We all want to keep the wolf from the door, the bogeyman out of the house, and the “nattering nabobs of negativism” all know it and play on it.

The plain fact is that CO2 cannot be the primary driver of global temperature because there were at least two times when CO2 levels were many time higher than they are now, and the earth was in the middle of an ice age.

October 13, 2018 3:29 am

Well,…since the thermal clock started at the beginning of recorded time (around 1850 they say), and the temperature has risen 1.0 deg C since the start of time (demarcated at the end of the LIA0,… we only have o.5 deg to go for tipping point Armageddon. Good news is— now we can buy tickets to the Show!, Nah,… we get in free as the last sane generation. Don’t forget to bring those thermometers to the show. No fun without! 🌡

October 13, 2018 3:44 am

Rex did a very sharp report about Climategate back in the day. He was right then and he’s still right now. IPCC are overpromoted activists afforded more respect than their claims deserve. Meanwhile absolutely nothing unusual happens in our climate.

Tom Abbott
October 13, 2018 4:35 am

From the article: “the assembly of existential dread known as the IPCC”

That’s funny! A great description! Thanks for the good laugh!

October 13, 2018 5:33 am

Like with all doomsday cults (which CAGW certainly is), once all cult leaders’ prognostications are continuously proven wrong, eventually, even the most ardent cultists realize their silly beliefs are a joke and move on with their lives.

The CAGW cult has missed every single one of its past prophesies, so no one really takes their new ones seriously.

For the sake of Leftists’ obsession for more power, control and tax revenues, and to keep the government grants flowing, Leftist political hacks and CAGW rent seekers pretend to believe what they say, but they know their religious cult has already crashed and burned.

Leftists politicians are down to occasionally repeating a few CAGW memes, but CAGW is seldom even mentioned in political debates and Internet metadata show interest in CAGW is fading fast.

As the saying goes, “You can fool some of the people some of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can’t fool all of the people all of the time…”

CAGW is dead.

Gary Pearse
Reply to  SAMURAI
October 13, 2018 9:28 pm

I think its cool that Trump cancelled the Climate Klatch. Its as if the cat was away and the rats did play. When handled bruskly like this, I believe it wakes up critical juices and people begin to see that an ignorant ideologcal mob and the lefty media supporters are a bunch of devious rats. According to Mark Steyn, his self produced video interviews and analyses of the political theater in the West gets more viewers than individual CNN “news” and “commentary” shows.

October 13, 2018 5:35 am

Like with all doomsday cults (which CAGW certainly is), once all cult leaders’ prognostications are continuously proven wrong, eventually, even the most ardent cultists realize their silly beliefs are a joke and move on with their lives.

The CAGW cult has missed every single one of its past prophesies, so no one really takes their new ones seriously.

For the sake of Leftists’ obsession for more power, control and tax revenues, and to keep the government grants flowing, Leftist political hacks and CAGW rent seekers pretend to believe what they say, but they know their religious cult has already crashed and burned.

Leftists politicians are down to occasionally repeating a few CAGW memes, but CAGW is seldom even mentioned in political debates and Internet metadata show interest in CAGW is fading fast.

As the saying goes, “You can fool some of the people some of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can’t fool all of the people all of the time…”

Reply to  SAMURAI
October 13, 2018 6:13 am

The evidence doesn’t matter, the cult wins, if any real effects of the false claims are not remediated or mitigated (e.g. probable human carcinogen), or the emotional appeal of allegations is not immediately and sustainably soothed. or otherwise countered. This is more of a marketing campaign than a scientific enterprise, which in the post-modern world is prone to conflation of logical domains (e.g. operation outside the near-frame of reference where phenomenon are observable, reproducible, and understood through deduction — not inference or created or extrapolated knowledge).

October 13, 2018 6:05 am

You can cry wolf ad infinitum in the proper climate, with a sustainable propaganda campaign, a la diversity (i.e. color judgments/discrimination), political congruence (i.e. selective, opportunistic exclusion), war without borders (e.g. social justice adventures, refugee crises), uncivil rights (e.g. warlock trials), transhuman rites (e.g. selective-child).

October 13, 2018 6:12 am

James Hansen. The father of climate science,
warned that future generations will judge the decision to back a UK fracking industry harshly.
So the UK joins Trump, ignores science.
The science is crystal clear, we need to phase out fossil fuels.
I feel I am missing something here?

Reply to  Twobob
October 13, 2018 6:18 am

Yes, marketing, perception, demographics (e.g. diversity or color divisions), exceptional needs, and redistributive change, including: “affordable” medical care, “livable” wages, etc.

Reply to  Twobob
October 13, 2018 9:48 am


The science is crystal clear, we need to phase out fossil fuels.
I feel I am missing something here?

How many billions do you demand we deliberately harm for how many hundred years in order to “phase out” fossil fuels?
Should not we demand first that you, your family, your money and all of your living ancestors and relatives be “phased out” of fossil fuels permanently for the remainder of their lives? That is the fate YOU are demanding others receive.

Reply to  Twobob
October 13, 2018 2:09 pm

“James Hansen. The father of climate science,”

Surely you are joking? Never heard of e. g. Köppen, Wegener, Lamb, Rossby and Bjerknes?

John Tillman
Reply to  tty
October 13, 2018 2:31 pm

“Father of Climatology”, as opposed to the GIGO computer gaming of so-called “climate science”:

Another Ian
Reply to  tty
October 13, 2018 2:47 pm

More like “James Hansen. The Ancel Keys of climate science” IMO

John Tillman
Reply to  Another Ian
October 13, 2018 3:12 pm

Keys, bad as he was, was a better scientist than Hansen.

Jim “Boiling Oceans on the Venus Express” Hansen is more like the Keystone Kop of Klimate Kookiness.

October 13, 2018 6:25 am

The carbon-based fuels (a.k.a. “fossil” fuel) boogeyman is a viable political campaign through “green” shifting, scientific obfuscation, and redistributive change to sustain first-world life-styles.

Reply to  n.n
October 13, 2018 6:47 am

Thanks for the illumination.
Yes Mr James Hansen said it all.
Even wrote to an MP.

HD Hoese
October 13, 2018 6:55 am

WU still seems to be worried.

“Dangerous Rapidly Intensifying Landfalling Hurricanes Like Michael and Harvey May Grow More Common”

Based on–
“Hurricane track forecasts have improved steadily over the past few decades, yet forecasting hurricane intensity remains challenging. Of special concern are the rare instances of tropical cyclones that intensify rapidly just before landfall, catching forecasters and populations off guard, thereby risking large casualties. Here, we review two historical examples of such events and use scaling arguments and models to show that rapid intensification just before landfall is likely to become increasingly frequent and severe as the globe warms.”

I worry more about the failure to properly respond based on the real history. Mexico Beach and Holly Beach, named beach for a reason.

October 13, 2018 7:06 am

“… The scene is always the same. A keening goes around the assembled multitude of worshipers as a fresh and even more definitive deadline than any of the past 20 or 30 for Saving the Planet as inscribed in The Book of Climate Revelations. …”

“And don’t you lot go getting soft with your tithes and offerings in the interim.” – UN IPCC

October 13, 2018 7:15 am

The Fearmonger’s Shoppe.

doomsday is always nigh and you want to be prepared with the latest styles-
but if you want to save $$$ check out the bargain bin for used catastrophes at much reduced prices!
some that are not too dusty (nostradamus is an antique not really fashionable any more)
we got a loads of old raptures and tribulations

we gots yer ice age doomsday, yer nucular winter (does not come with the doomsday clock), your jupiter effect, yer population bomb

comets are always good – we got hale bop (aka heaven’s gate), halley’s (was a real hit with the mormons), elenin, more- i’d have to look…

we gots some aztec 2012, some people’s temple (great liberal meme master! still very popular)

if you like sciency ones, we gots CERN black holes, GMO, y2k, and a wide selection of ‘mind control’ ones (free foil hat with every purchase!)

and if you order now! free zombie apocalypse!
everyone is entitled to a good gothic frisson- we have something for everyone!

we aim to keep our customers terrified!

popular now! acid oceans + global warmageddon ensemble-
it’s absolutely stunning and makes a bold statement of virtue and concern.
you’ll be the talk of the town at all the best social gatherings!

ocasio/hogg 2020 make Jonestown geat again!

Al Miller
October 13, 2018 7:26 am

The stunning and mind numbing hypocrisy of the so called leaders of the climate scam alone should be enough to turn off all thinking people. And in fact it is and they have turned away, but the lure of incredible power has the governments of many, sadly including ours in Canada beguiled, thus the politicians and media continue to beat a drum few are listening to or care about.

October 13, 2018 7:52 am

Rex is an columnist with a lot of commonsense. It is amazing that the state-owned CBC tolerates him.
He mentions that anxious liberals may be “disappointed” when predicted extreme disasters don’t happen.
He should have directly referred to Miller who was a charismatic preacher in the 1840s. With impressive scholarship he determined that the World would end on a certain day. It did not happen so he did another even more impressive calculation. A couple of years later, the fervour spread through many states. He sold “ascension” gowns for the great day.
And then it did not happen, which “Millerites” immediately called the “Great Disappointment”.
I believe the movement became Seventh Day Adventists.

Reply to  Bob Hoye
October 13, 2018 5:26 pm

I haven’t seen Rex on CBC for quite sometime. You sure he’s still on their payroll? I only see his scribbling in the National Post.

Mickey Reno
October 13, 2018 7:58 am

You’d think that someone as astronomy-centric as Neil deGrasse-Tyson would describe CAGW tipping points in terms like “event horizons” and such.

Think of the power that the propaganda might have if you said “OH NOES! WE’VE CROSSED the 2 degree EVENT HORIZON!!!’ And now we’re doomed! We’re being sucked into a singularity of FIERY DOOM!

That would sound so much cooler. Go ahead, Neil, you can borrow my ideas for your future propaganda. Maybe on your next refresh of Cosmos you can work that stuff in there. Make Carl (and Anne) proud.

October 13, 2018 8:02 am

The day of “Great Disappointment” was October 22, 1844.
I’ll note that it is a week, Monday and will have a double Martini.
The Polish Potato Vodka, plus the special olives.

October 13, 2018 8:08 am

We are real lucky that CO2 isn’t harmful, and it isn’t, because it does so much good. If it actually were so harmful, the predictions would have come true by now and we would be seeing the problems they predicted 30 years ago by now and dying by the millions with mass chaos. Or soon will be, which is what they keep telling us every few years, unless we pay Penance. It is the oldest trick in the book.

We wouldn’t have things so good with so many people, if the climate wasn’t near perfect and we had it so easy from a very large increase in all things carbon based life. CO2 from FF is probably the absolute least of our problems, but it is the current boogyman in the subconscious to exploit for the phenomena of Eschatology. That is a real thing in a part of our brain, when life and things did end catastrophically, as we can see from the historical record in so many ancient histories. It comes eventually, but not usually from what we think it will be.

It generally was related to things like genocide from war (the grim weeper horseman) or was an actual failure of crops and livestock from a cooling snap on a mass temporary scale caused by some extreme forcing event like vulcanism or an earthquake/tsunami event that comes out of left field. It is a real thing and it does happen, if you can wait long enough. But not from an overall warming trend, especially not a long term warming trend, which is different from a catastrophic drought. And now blaming every weather event is like the Chief Witch Dr. claiming the only way to appease the Weather Gods was to sacrifice virgins or prisoners etc, which is what the IPCC now is, the Chief Witch Doctor. And we are the new ‘carbon’ prisoners by decree. The new Climate High Priests of Doom. This is a modern day Anthropological psychology issue. Not an Anthropogenic issue. You see…they get so those two words mixed up cause they almost sound the same and they spelled similar.

October 13, 2018 9:00 am

Sort of off topic… But one of my favorite Rex Murphy commentaries. From Dec 2009.

Alan Tomalty
October 13, 2018 9:12 am

Standards, subsidies and taxes. The bane of the free market. Standards should only be used to prevent injuries or bad health effects. Subsidies should only be used to prop up a company that produces a domestic product that is key to national security. Taxes should only be used as a government income source. Too often however the government uses standards to interfere in the life of all its citizens. At the same time governments subsidize almost everything. Taxes are collected for all sorts of reasons. Ex: liquor and tobacco taxes, estate or inheritance taxes, gift taxes, company asset taxes, and carbon taxes.

It is this last one that irks me the most. Carbon taxes are ridiculous. One of 3 things can happen. 1) The company can refuse to pay them and move out of the country or threaten to move out before they are enacted. In this case everybody loses. 2) The company can pay them and then raise their prices so that with business as usual no emission reduction of CO2 occurs. In this case only the company loses if it also exports its product. The consumers don’t lose because the carbon taxes are supposed to be given back to the public at large. However the general price level of all carbon related goods goes up so that inflation goes up. However since no decrease in CO2 emissions occurs, there was no reason to have the tax in the 1st place. 3) The company can change its source of fuel to a lower carbon entity at a higher cost and pass on its necessary price increase to its customers. The customers have no choice because all the competitors have to do the same thing. In that case there is a reduction in CO2 emissions but since the atmosphere needs more CO2 NOT less, everybody loses.

It is this third scenario that factors into my main point. Even if you believe in AGW(human caused global warming/climate change) , here are the stark facts of trying to do anything about it. PM Trudeau in Canada plans on introducing a tax on the emission of CO2 and all greenhouse gases except water vapour, starting January 1, 2019. B.C. and Alberta are at present, the only provinces that have a carbon tax. The federal price on carbon will harmonize with those and will be forced on any other province that does not implement one by that date.

Canada puts out 1.5 % of world total of CO2 and its level of CO2 emissions is as low as it was 20 years ago. Canada signed on to the Paris agreement on limitation of non condensing greenhouse gas emissions(CO2,methane,…etc) to a cut of 30% from its’ 2005 level of 732 million tons(CO2 equivalent) by the year 2030. That amounts to a promise to cut its’ emissions by ~220 million tons. China puts out 31% of the world total and increased their output 4.1% in 2017 and is on track for an equal 4% increase after the 1st quarter of 2018.

In 1991 Norway was the 1st country along with Sweden to introduce a carbon tax, and they have found that their tax was responsible for reducing their increases of emissions by only 2.32% compared to a 0 rate on carbon. However Norway’s CO2 emissions still went up. To top it all off Norway found that the carbon taxes reduced their GDP by 0.06%.

In the Norwegian scheme there were so many exemptions that the effective coverage of the carbon taxes was only 64% of industrial production. The Norwegian price for carbon is around $25 Can per ton. Trudeau has promised to introduce Canada’s carbon tax or CO2 equivalent tax at $20 per ton in 2019 and increase it $10 per ton every year until $50 per ton by the end of 2022. The government of Canada website says that there are ~ 600 industrial reporting facilities that report their CO2 emissions to the government. However they account for only 37% of all CO2 emissions in Canada. The others dont have to report because they are under the legal requirement of 50000 tons per year.
However the differing prices between Norway and Canada will not have any significant effect on the results because there is very little opportunity for any company in Canada in at least 7 of the provinces, to switch to a non CO2 producing fuel because those 7(except Manitoba,B.C. and Quebec) do not have significant hydro power; so the companies will simply pay the tax to stay in business. Theoretically this should not amount to any significant reduction in CO2 because Canada is different from Norway in a fundamental way. In Norway any firm has access to hydro elecricity.

In this 1st phase which will cover 75%(165 million tons) of the planned reductions until 2022 with the remaining 25% (55 million tons) being apllied after that until 2030 and beyond. However since only 37% of total greenhouse gas emissions in Canada are generated by the large greenhouse gas emitters; and only the large ones are required to report them to the Government of Canada; that is only 75% of 37% = 27.75 % (61 million tons). That means that only 27.75% (61 million tons) of the emissions will be targeted for reduction for the 1st phase of the planned reduction of Canada’s contribution to the 2030 target. However as a result of industry pressure, the rules have been again changed so that companies will be required to pay tax on only 20% of their emissions with some companies like in the cement and steel industries being required to pay tax on only 10% of their emissions. So let us assume the net overall % will be a 18% requirement. So you have to take 18% of 27.75% which is roughly 5% of total emissions subject to tax for the 1st phase. For comparison purposes Ireland achieved a decrease in emissions only after 4 straight years of increased emissions despite a carbon tax. British Columbia despite having a carbon tax since 2008 has not achieved any decrease in CO2 emissions.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has said that that the average climate computer model forecasts an increase in temperature of 3C by the end of the century (82 years from now) if the world doesn’t reduce its carbon footprint. The said reduction of temperature goal is 1.5 C by end of century in order to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 C.

Canada has committed to reduce greenhouse gas emmissions per Paris agreement by 2030 of 30%. 30% of 1.5 % = 0.45% of world total

In the 1st phase of reductions which will culminate by 2023, this will reduce our greenhouse gas footprint by 5% of 30% = ~ 1.5% with the other 25% for the 2030 target being 25% of 37%(reporting emmitters) = 9 % * 30% = 2.775% * effective subject to tax of 19% = 0.05 % being part of a revised carbon pricing scheme between 2023 and 2030.
5% (total targeted emissions) = 0.05 and 0.45% (of world total) = .0045
So you have 0.05 * .0045 = 0.000225 which will be Canada’s contribution to world total reduction. Don’t forget that carbon trading and a carbon price dont actually guarantee that any reductions will ever occur.

But if the promised reductions do occur then you multiply by goal of 1.5C so that you have 0.000225 * 1.5 = 0.0003375 C
That is a reduction of a less than 4 ten-thousandths of a degree C at the end of the next 82 years. And the actual reduction in temperature will be negligble because most emitters will simply pay the tax. It is also a function of how many exemptions and what discount carbon tax %’s are actually determined in the future besides the already announded ones. Even so, since this is the 1st phase only, Canada’s goal in this phase is to cut 75% of 30% of its emissions which = 22.5% . However since only 37% industrial emitters have to report and the effective emissions subject to tax is only 18%; the real number is 18% * 37% * 30% = ~ 2 % This is awfully similar to Norway’s initial result of 2.32 % reduction. However Canada’s emissions have been flat since 2007.

Since China’s increase last year as per the above is .3 * .041 = 0.0123 or 1.23% of world total
Since Canada’s reduction will be 0.0225% (see above) of world total, that means China’s increase for 1 year is 0.0123/ 0.000225 = ~ 54.6 times the amount of Canada’s (total 4 year reduction) for each year if the emissions go lower in Canada to the same degree as the increased price effect after 4 years(assuming that no Canadian emitters actually pay the tax and instead substitute a 0 carbon fuel in their manufacturing process). Dont forget that Canada’s reduction is only at a maximum effect by 2022 because of the increasing price of $10 per ton per year. In the 1st year 2019 or any other year, the reduction could be the whole amount or any amount depending on how many firms simply pay the tax vs the number that switch to a non carbon or lower carbon fuel source. China has refused to decrease its output and only promised to try to limit their increases by 2030. China is not a developing country because it has 45% of the world’s skyscrapers.

What will all of this cost Canadian companies if all pay the tax?

Price of carbon by 2022 will be $50 per ton by 2022 and at 732 million tons * 37% reporting * 18% effective emmissions subject to tax * 75% = 36.56 million tons . So you have 36.56 million * $50/ton = 1.828 billion $ Can. However since the carbon tax will start in 2019 at $20 per ton, the yearly taxes will be 2019= 36.56 million * $20 = $731.2 million ; 2020= 36.56 million * $30 = $1.0968 billion ; 2021 = 36.56 million * $40 = $1.4624 billion; 2022= 36.56 million * $50 = $1.828 billion So total cost over 4 year period is $5.1184 billion and assuming no other increases, the yearly cost after that will remain at $1.828 billion per year until the 2nd phase starts before 2030. Of course all this assumes that there won’t be further exemptions to the 37% * 19% (effective rate subject to tax) of emmissions that are reported as of now. However the amount of tax will be less than that because some emitters will switch fuels. Assuming the 2nd phase has the same rules; the additional total will add another 33% (25%/75%) and will be $6.896172 billion of tax by 2030. However that will not meet the Paris commitment to cut emissions by 30%.

So we are going to have to either tax $5.1184 billion in the 1st phase or have the companies spend more to switch to a non carbon fuel, to save 4 ten- thousandths of 1 degree C of world temperature as of the year 2100. The stupid part is that the higher the actual tax collected the more carbon dioxide emissions occur and the less the temperature gets reduced. So in the end , part of industry will pay the tax because switching to a non carbon fuel is impossible ( Ex: industrial kiln) and the rest will switch to a lower carbon source. Either way it raises inflation on all carbon source industries which then insidiously seeps into the prices of everything else in the country.

After the 1st phase this will still leave Canada short 183 million tons of its Paris commitment to cut by 2030 and Trudeau has said that Canada will meet its commitment by 2030. Well the only way that would happen is if 37% 0f 732 million = 270 million tons and being 183 million short you divide by 270 million = 67% of the 600 largest emitters in Canada closed down and left the country.

What will this cost each household in Canada per year?
Minimum of $200 Can/yr and maximum of $475/yr Can. Since these costs are because of increased inflation; those costs will be borne by everyone every year going forward. Also, most provinces have promised to rebate all the money back to consumers. Well what is wrong, if we get all our money back anyway, you ask? Well, 6 things are wrong. 1) You have created a federal carbon tax bureaucracy which will never go away. 2) the carbon part of the economy will have been price inflated, thus inflating the whole economy 3) you have given free money to those people that were not using carbon based sources of energy because when you give the money back you have to give it to everybody. 4) As well as everyone getting the same rebate cheque, that cheque will not cover the costs of the increased inflation to those people that are buying and using products from the carbon based side of the economy. The reason is; because of No.3 above, that the people who are not buying and using products from the carbon side of the economy are getting some of that money that would have gone to those that were using products from the carbon side of the economy. 5) extra costs for each company affected in accounting for the taxes or in switching to a new fuel. 6) If the company is an exporter the export price will either have to be raised, or obtain an exemption on that % of the company product exported, or a new government subsidy created to cover the company’s extra export price. The other huge consideration is that since the global warming/climate change subject is a big hoax anyway, the whole exercise will have been a worse than useless activity.


donald penman
October 13, 2018 9:12 am

I think that politics is behind all this confusion about what we need to do about the possible increase in global temperatures caused by increasing co2. Many people on both the right and left cannot tell the difference between science and politics , I think science should be free of politics. What is the point in producing computer models which we are expected to believe tells us what the global temperature is going to be in fifty or a hundred years time when we can just wait fifty to a hundred years and find out what actually happens, if you think that the Earth is not going to be there then then I think that is just crazy .

Roger Knights
October 13, 2018 9:22 am

The IPCC has jumped the shark with this one. Now people can see the truth of Monckton’s dictum, which is approximately “If its affordable, it’s inadequate; if its adequate, it’s unaffordable.”

William Astley
October 13, 2018 10:33 am

Rex is too kind.

The idiots did more than incorrectly ‘predict’ apocalypse.

Due to the first group of idiots predicting CAGW, a slightly different group of idiots/liars/brain dead Zombies are trying to force us to spend more and more money on wind and solar gathering that does not make engineering sense.

The current temperature vs CO2 data and the paleo temperature vs CO2 data, does not even support AGW.

This study demonstrates that changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration did not cause temperature change in the ancient climate.

The Relationship between Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration and Global Temperature for the Last 425 Million Years

Here I explore this relationship empirically using comprehensive, recently-compiled
databases of stable-isotope proxies from the Phanerozoic Eon (~540 to 0 years before the present) and through complementary modeling using the atmospheric absorption/transmittance code MODTRAN. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is correlated weakly but negatively with linearly-detrended T proxies over the last 425 million years. …

…The correlation between DRFCO2 and linearly-detrended T across the Phanerozoic Eon is positive and discernible, but only 2.6% of variance in T is attributable to variance in DRFCO2.

…This study demonstrates that changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration did not cause temperature change in the ancient climate.

The insult to our intelligence is that even if there was a CAGW problem, spending more and more on wind and sun gathering will double/triple the cost of electric power which cause industry to leave the expensive electrical power country and move to cheap electric power country.

It will not (spending more and more on W and S gathering) significantly reduce CO2 emissions, as Germany has demonstrated.

The excess wind and solar power cannot be used if there is no demand for the electric power when it is generated.
The Storage Problem/Green Scam Hard Engineering Limitations

The coming age of power cannibalism…Germany on the verge of committing energy suicide
Capacity without control

The problem with the “renewable” power sources of wind and solar is their intrinsic volatility coupled with their poor capacity utilization rates of only 17.4% for wind and 8.3% for solar (average values for Germany).

Yet Germany has a unique peculiarity: its leaders sometimes exhibit a stunning inability to recognize when the time has come to abandon a lost cause. So far €500 billion (William: €500 billion is $550 billion US) has already been invested in the “Energiewende”, which is clearly emerging as a failure. Yet all political parties continue to throw their full weight behind the policy rather than admitting it is a failure (which would be tantamount to political suicide). Instead, the current government coalition has even decided to shift into an even higher gear on the path to achieving its objective of generating 80% of German electric power from “renewable” sources by 2050.

If the situation is practically unmanageable now with 25% renewable energy (William: Note that the Germans are receiving 25% of their electrical power from green scams, the actual carbon reduction is only 15% to 25% due to requirement to turn on/off/on/off single cycle natural gas power plants rather than to run combine cycle more efficient power plants that take 10 hours to start and that are hence left on for weeks), it’ll be an uncontrollable disaster when (if) it reaches 80%.

October 13, 2018 11:36 am

We need a new group investigation IPCCC , International Panel on Climate Change Criminals .
As Rex Murphy lays out you only get one swing at the bat to predict climate Armageddon.
After that you are done . Al Gore is so pathetic and now alt left commies like Democrat Cortez
are singing the climate doom tune . It’s called mining for donations . The climate fear industry needs a stupid new face to pitch their crap and the new face needs cash bad . Yeah shut down ALL fossil fuel . Pure genius .
The Democrats need to grow up and get off their self destruction path of representing the pretend
green virtue signalers .

October 13, 2018 1:03 pm

+ a million ..
Best takedown I have read concerning the nefarious liars who keep moving the goalposts out 30-50 years into the future when ever they are facing a big FAIL of one of their half baked projections that ain’t going to happen when it was purported to happen. Love Murphy’s dry wit & sarcasm. Fits me to a T

October 13, 2018 1:04 pm

In biblical times, if a prophet was wrong ONCE, they were taken out and stoned to death as a false prophet.

Rex Murphy though, is a national treasure.

October 13, 2018 1:08 pm

In biblical times, if a prophet was wrong ONCE, they were taken out and stoned to death as a false prophet.

Rex Murphy on the other hand, is a national treasure.

October 13, 2018 3:42 pm

Now if people would only realize that these doomsday prophecies render self-evident other major lies that have been perpetuated for decades now, such as the HIV=AIDS fraud. Back in the 1980’s everyone was told that Africa would be dead inside of 20 years, just another lie proven to be a lie due to the passage of time.

Chris Hanley
October 13, 2018 4:26 pm

The Doomsday Clock ‘has been set backward and forward 23 times since 1947’ (Wiki) which makes the metaphor somehow less impelling and about as dependable as Captain Cuttle’s priceless silver watch that if ‘put back half-an-hour every morning and about another quarter towards the afternoon was equalled by few and excelled by none’.

Robert Crites
October 13, 2018 5:42 pm

They are all passengers on the G W G T. That’s the global warming gravy train.

Robert Crites
October 13, 2018 5:47 pm

They are all passengers on the G. W. G. T. That’s the global warming gravy train.

October 13, 2018 6:27 pm


Articles: Search results, Sierra Club Canada and Sierra Club USA.

These are two different organizations and different in origin. One in Canada and the other in the USA.

Rex was referring to Sierra Club Canada or both?

Reply to  Barbara
October 13, 2018 6:44 pm
Gary Mount
Reply to  Barbara
October 14, 2018 2:28 am

Sierra Club membership:
USA, 3 million
Canada, 10 thousand

The roots of Sierra Club Canada go back to 1963, when environmentalists in British Columbia affiliated themselves with the Sierra Club of the United States. Sierra Club Canada became a pan-Canadian organization in 1989, and was legally incorporated as a Canadian organization in 1992.

Reply to  Gary Mount
October 14, 2018 8:31 pm


Sierra Club USA has ties to the BlueGreen Alliance in the U.S. There is internet information on this “Alliance”. BlueGreen Alliance Foundation shows up in the UNFCCC data base. Both Sierra Clubs also show up in UNFCCC data base articles

Dr. Strangelove
October 13, 2018 7:35 pm

Ghostbusters copycats (and dogs). Intergovernmental Panel of Copy Cats (IPCC)

October 13, 2018 8:28 pm

This argument against doomsday reminds me of the story of the guy who brought a bomb with him onto an airplane because the chance of there being two separate bombers on a single plane is infinitismaly small.

An even simpler way of putting it is that nobody can be relied on to be wrong all the time.

October 14, 2018 7:48 am

To paraphrase Lincoln (quoted above) :
You can fool all Americans some of the time, some of the Russians all of the time, but you cannot fool all Ameicans, all Russians, and all Chinese all of the time.
The hysteria is a spectacle, Rumpelstiltskin is about to go up in smoke – he after all did spin CO2 into gold for his clients.

Johann Wundersamer
October 14, 2018 3:48 pm

the Gotterdammerung club:


The Surtur, the prince of the south, will burn the land

the Fenris Wolf will devour the sun

Ygdrasil, the tree of life will overthrow

the gods will die in the battle.

But the Nordic people will be resurrected under a new sign.

There is new hope.

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