Guest commentary by David Middleton
Global Sea Level Could Rise 50 Feet by 2300, Study Says
Characterizing what’s known and what’s uncertain is key to managing coastal risk
October 6, 2018
Global average sea-level could rise by nearly 8 feet by 2100 and 50 feet by 2300 if greenhouse gas emissions remain high and humanity proves unlucky, according to a review of sea-level change and projections by Rutgers and other scientists.
Since the start of the century, global average sea-level has risen by about 0.2 feet. Under moderate emissions, central estimates of global average sea-level from different analyses range from 1.4 to 2.8 more feet by 2100, 2.8 to 5.4 more feet by 2150 and 6 to 14 feet by 2300, according to the study, published in Annual Review of Environment and Resources.
“Global average sea-level could rise by nearly 8 feet by 2100 and 50 feet by 2300 if greenhouse gas emissions remain high and humanity proves unlucky…”
No fracking way! Global sea level can’t even rise by 3 feet by 2100…
RCP8.5 fraud alert!
The study, published in Annual Review of Environment and Resources hasn’t actually been published yet and it appears that it will be pay-walled. The abstract is unusually abstract…
Future sea-level rise generates hazards for coastal populations, economies, infrastructure, and ecosystems around the world. The projection of future sea-level rise relies on an accurate understanding of the mechanisms driving its complex spatio-temporal evolution, which must be founded on an understanding of its history. We review the current methodologies and data sources used to reconstruct the history of sea-level change over geological (Pliocene, Last Interglacial, and Holocene) and instrumental (tide-gauge and satellite alimetry) eras, and the tools used to project the future spatial and temporal evolution of sea level. We summarize the understanding of the future evolution of sea level over the near (through 2050), medium (2100), and long (post-2100) terms. Using case studies from Singapore and New Jersey, we illustrate the ways in which current methodologies and historical data sources can constrain future projections, and how accurate projections can motivate the development of new sea-level research questions across relevant timescales.
Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Environment and Resources Volume 43 is October 17, 2018. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
50 feet of sea level rise by 2300 is worse than bad science fiction. The same lead author had 50 feet (15.2 meters) of sea level rise by 2300 as beyond the upper range of RCP8.5 (bad science fiction) in 2014.
Horton, B. P., Rahmstorf, S., Engelhart, S. E., and Kemp, A. C.: Expert assessment of sea-level rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300, Quaternary Science Reviews, 84, 1–6, 2014.
Horton, Benjamin P., Robert E. Kopp, Andra J. Garner, Carling C. Hay, Nicole S. Khan, Keven Roy, Timothy A. Shaw. Mapping Sea-Level Change in Time, Space, and Probability. Annual Review of Environment and Resources 2018 43:1
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