# Was Extreme Ultraviolet an Andy Warhol Actress?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

When folks tell me that the sunspot-related changes in total solar irradiance make changes down here on the surface of our amazing planet, I suggest that they take a look at the numbers.

From peak to trough over the sunspot cycle, the top-of-atmosphere total solar irradiance varies by about 1.2 watts per square metre (W/m2) … which, when averaged over the entire surface of the earth gives a change of about 0.28 W/m2. This is less than a tenth of one percent variation in total incoming energy.

But in fact, it’s less than that. Only about half of the sunlight makes it to the surface, so we’re down to 0.14 W/m2 change from peak to trough, less than a twentieth of a percent.

Now, downwelling radiation at the surface of the earth averages about 500 W/m2 on a 24/7 average basis. And out of that, we’re supposed to believe that a variation on the order of a tenth of a W/m2 is going to make a difference …

“Ah, you don’t understand”, folks inform me, “Yes, TSI only changes by a tenth of a percent over a solar cycle. But extreme ultraviolet (EUV) varies as a percentage much, much more than that!” … and you know what?

They’re right …

… but they’re also wrong. Let me explain why.

Figure 1. Spectrally resolved top-of-atmosphere sunshine. X-axis units are nanometres (nm).

In the middle is the visible spectrum, from about 380 nm to about 750 nm. Longer wavelengths than that are called “near infrared”. Wavelengths shorter than that are ultraviolet (UV).

And way over on the left, at 10 – 24 nm wavelength between the vertical red lines, is the tiny amount of extreme ultraviolet (EUV).

So that is the first problem. Even though it varies on a percentage basis more than the TSI, the EUV represents such a small part of the sun’s energy that it cannot be even seen at this scale.

The second problem is that the variation in EUV is much, much smaller in absolute terms than the variation in TSI. In Figure 2 I’ve compared the variations in the middle of the EUV spectrum (18 nm) to the variations in the blue part of the visible spectrum (~500 nm).

Figure 2. Monthly variations in solar output, measured in the EUV (red/yellow line) and in the visible spectrum (blue line)

As you can see, the variations in the EUV are very small compared to the variations in the visible spectrum.

In fact, the only reason that the percentage variations in EUV are greater than the percentage variations in TSI is that changes in EUV start from almost zero … so even a tiny absolute change in EUV is a large percentage change in EUV.

For those reasons, I hold that looking at EUV to explain surface climate variations is a blind alley … but as always, YMMV …

Best to everyone on a warm and quiet night,

w.

AS ALWAYS: I politely ask that you QUOTE THE EXACT WORDS THAT YOU ARE DISCUSSING so that we can all understand the subject of your thoughts.

DATA: I’ve used the solar data recommended here for use in the CMIP6. Yes, I know it has manifold problems, I pointed some of them out here on WUWT, but none of them affect these results.

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Bruce Sanson
September 7, 2018 11:15 pm

Thank you Willis, clear and to the point. Unless a major atmospheric affect can be shown that EUV is essential for then I now believe you are correct.

RyanS
September 7, 2018 11:26 pm

Indeed, I’d go as far saying its a slam dunk. But if you’re desperately trying to prove its anything but CO2, some are going to cling on to the delusion regardless.

beng135
September 8, 2018 7:03 am

Lots of negative votes there, RyanS. Could it be the “desperately trying to prove its anything but CO2” statement? I mean, really, nothing can cause warming other than CO2? NOTHING?

Greg Goodman
September 8, 2018 11:31 am

Well I will have nothing to do with likes/dislike buttons, but anyone who comes in talking about “slam dunk” gets cred=zero in terms of having an objective discussion. It’s about as good as “debumking” , “robust” and other terms that do not belong to science.

One of the big problems with attempts to find a solar connection is that sometimes it works, sometimes it does not. Not a good start when looking for correlation. The other problem is it is almost always done as part of a multivaraite linear regression, which is somewhat arbitrary and prone to false attribution especially in the probable presence of other possible drivers which are not part of the regression, or bear fluctuations of similar timescales, like volcanoes.

The surface record is full of non-attributable fluctuations and climate noise. However the stratosphere gives us a much more settled signal.

https://climategrog.wordpress.com/uah_tls_365d/

Much of the interaction there is in the UV ( not the tiny EUV ) but also particulate aerosols from anthropogenic pollution also play a part in other wavelengths.

The net effect is clear, after both the most recent major stratovolcanic events the was a temporary rise and then a quasi permanent drop in TLS. (Temperature of the lower stratosphere).

So where did this energy go have not been blocked by ozone and stratospheric aerosols? Well, I guess it must have made it to the lower climate system.

What it did there is anybodies guess. But it does correspond to the late 20th c. OMG warming. Flip and compare.

RyanS
September 8, 2018 8:33 pm

beng135
“anything but CO2” is not the same as “nothing other than CO2”.

The reason for the negatives is plainly obvious: the high correlation between the desperate “anything but CO2” crowd and the belief in UV unicorn rays.

Funny how Leif agreed but got positives…

beng135
September 9, 2018 5:59 am

Leif agreed that the UV issue is moot — so do I & gave him a +1. My point was that you d*ny any cause for warming other than CO2 (in the past, the Gods/sins were responsible). Do you realize how many changes have occurred during the Holocene, let alone before that? Were those changes man-made? Of course not. Why can’t similar changes be occurring now? Do you realize that people were hunted, persecuted and even executed/sacrificed because of fear & superstition of such natural changes? And how similar the current warmunist fear-mongering sounds to those previous episodes? One might observe that behavior is an in-built, irrational human flaw, at least without proper education and rational analysis.

RyanS
September 9, 2018 3:08 pm

“you d*ny any cause for warming other than CO2 ”

For the second time – no I don’t. It’s in your head.

September 8, 2018 9:35 am

@ RyanS
The earth’s orbit is out 3%. Many times larger than the variable TSI, that we know of at this time. How do you compensate averaging without a capacitor? A small downturn in TSI has a profound effect on the storage of capacitance. ( not enough to melt a snowflake?) Without that capacitance, we would experience violent extremes compounded by seasonal changes. Or where is 0.65 C hiding since Feb 2016. … 0.65 C of heat on the planet is an extreme amount of heat. On a weighted average what has/is happening that the temperature would decline so much in a short amount of time? Hiding in the oceans? What flips the switch for the oceans to sink that much heat? Just happens? What’s the mechanism for it?
I’m not delusional at all, co2 has little or no affect on temperature.
How many ppm/v of co2 does it take to raise the temperature 1 C RyanS ?
The actual TSI and the stated warming from co2 as a result of TSI don’t match.

MarkW
September 8, 2018 10:26 am

I’m still waiting for you provide the first piece of evidence that CO2 has caused the extremely mild warming that the earth has experienced over the last 150 years.

kramer
September 8, 2018 10:46 am

“anything but CO2”?

CO2 hasn’t shown virtually any correlation to temperature over hundreds of millions of years. Yet many still bitterly cling to the notion that it’s the temperature or bad weather control knob.

Craig
September 8, 2018 7:42 pm

RyanS, you do love your Alinsky ‘accuse your enemy of doing exactly what you do yourself’ tactics. Meanwhile back in the real world of mainstream climate “science,” desperately trying to prove its NOT anything but CO2, some are going to cling on to the delusion regardless.

September 8, 2018 12:23 am

Indeed. The EUV band is a 1/4 million times less than TSI.

Hugs
September 8, 2018 3:19 am

And what might be that bad in Leif’s comment it earned negative votes?

I’m sorry, but if you think in the magic EUV instead of the magic gas, please elaborate why it works.

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 10:25 am

Hugs,

My guess is because readers realize that the share of TSI in the UV band doesn’t matter. What counts is the unique ability of UVC and UVB to ionize molecules, leading to the ionosphere and ozone in the stratosphere and troposphere, and of UVA to penetrate deeply into the oceans, among other properties of this distinctive high-energy portion of the solar radiation spectrum.

Greg Goodman
September 8, 2018 11:58 am

Yes, I think restricting the argument to EUV or even “mid EUV” is a red herring.

See my graphs above. Ozone creation / depletion and UV penetration yes. Though I think volcanic eruptions also result in natural purging of other pollutants from the stratosphere. Volcanic aerosols provide condensation nuclei and the resulting precipitation purges other pollutants at the same time. A few years after major events the atmospheric optical depth decreases : ie cleaner stratosphere.

Positive top-of-atmosphere flux anomaly after Pinatubo :

September 9, 2018 2:01 pm

just a test

September 8, 2018 8:08 am

There is one thing that makes UV unique, though I don’t believe it is the cause of significant change in earth climate. UV is very energetic. More energy is transferred to the ocean when it absorbs a UV photon than when it absorbs a visible light photon. Also, UV penetrates more deeply into ocean and ice depositing that energy farther from the surface. So while UV is only a tiny portion of the total spectrum, it is a larger portion of total energy. One UV photon carries 100 to 1000 times as much energy as a visible light photon and an infrared photon 100 to 1000 times less.

mcswell
September 8, 2018 8:21 am

True, but the energy of the photons is already factored into the graph in figure 1. The graph is Watts/ square meter (per nanometer band), not photons/ square meter.

Robert W. Turner
September 9, 2018 9:09 am

Exactly, and why just look at EUV? This post doesn’t include any real data, let’s compare the entire solar spectrum between a peak and a trough in solar flux instead. It’s not just EUV, or UV light that is penetrating the oceans and increasing absorptivity, but all higher frequency light is going to penetrate significantly deeper — red light hardly penetrates water compared to blue light and IR doesn’t make it past the skin of water.

This entire post is another red herring, someone someday should seriously look at the net effect of solar flux if climatology is to progress- spectral shift, ozone flux, biosphere changes, and cosmic rays need to all be addressed in a single study but all you ever see is mention of sunspots and poor correlation with 20th century temperature.

mcswell
September 10, 2018 5:34 pm

Transmission *peaks* at blue, and decreases at lower wavelengths.

Jim G.
September 7, 2018 11:54 pm

Dear Willis.
Please keep in mind that UV, EUV and X-rays are one thing that radio, IR and visible are not.
And that is that they are ionizing radiation. Solar protons should also be included in this category for their ionizing capability.

While true that the thermal energy provided by these wavelengths is essentially inconsequential, the ionizing characteristics have a different impact. For instance, EUV is the main energy source in the Thermosphere. (J. Lilensten, et. al., Ann. Geophys., 26, 269–279, 2008)

Regarding solar protons, the Bastille Day Solar Radiation Storm was reported to have destroyed 70% of the ozone layer in the mesophere and 9% reduction in the upper stratosphere. Granted, these were short term effects (1-several days), but how do the effects vary between active and mild cycles? Especially if you have a series of active or inactive cycles.
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/ProtonOzone

Unfortunately, there is just so much that we do not know.
But we’re learning along the way.

Cheers.

ren
September 8, 2018 12:02 am

In periods of low solar wind, air ionization by secondary galactic radiation from 5 to 20 km is more important.
The highest rate of carbon-14 production takes place at altitudes of 9 to 15 km (30,000 to 49,000 ft) and at high geomagnetic latitudes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon-14
In this study we show that correspondence of the main structures of geomagnetic field, near surface air temperature and surface pressure in the mid-latitudes, reported previously in the 1st part of the paper, has its physical foundation. The similar pattern, found in latitude-longitude distribution of the lower stratospheric ozone and specific humidity, allows us to close the chain of causal links, and to offer a mechanism through which geomagnetic field could influence on the Earth’s climate. It starts with a geomagnetic modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and ozone production in the lower stratosphere through ion-molecular reactions initiated by GCR. The alteration of the near tropopause temperature (by O3 variations at these levels) changes the amount of water vapour in the driest part of the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS), influencing in such a way on the radiation balance of the planet. This forcing on the climatic parameters is non-uniformly distributed over the globe, due to the heterogeneous geomagnetic field controlling energetic particles entering the Earth’s atmosphere.
http://journals.uran.ua/geofizicheskiy/article/view/111146

Richard G.
September 8, 2018 10:49 am

I would suggest that EUV is an independent variable that spawns many dependent variables that cascade through the climate system. From a comment on Sept 6, Leif posted:
Leif Svalgaard ;
“A composite record of the total unsigned magnetic (line-of-sight) flux over the solar disk can be constructed from spacecraft measurements by SOHO-MDI and SDO-HMI complemented by ground-based measurements by SOLIS covering the period 1996-2016, covering the two solar mimina in 1996 and 2009 and the two solar maxima in 2001 and 2014. A composite record of solar EUV from SOHO-SEM, TIMED-SEE, and SDO-EVE covering the same period is very well correlated with the magnetic record (R2=0.96), both for monthly means. The magnetic flux and EUV [and the sunspot number] are extremely well correlated with the F10.7 microwave flux, even on a daily basis. The tight correlations extend to other solar indices (Mg II, Ca II) reaching further back in time. Solar EUV creates and maintains the ionosphere. The conducting E-region [at ~105 km altitude] supports an electric current by a dynamo process due to thermal winds moving the conducting region across the Earth’s magnetic field. The resulting current has an easily observable magnetic effect at ground level, maintaining a diurnal variation of the geomagnetic field [discovered by Graham in 1722]. Data on this variation go back to the 1740s [with good coverage back to 1840] and permit reconstruction of EUV [and proxies, e.g. F10.7] back that far. We confirm that the EUV [and hence the solar magnetic field] relaxes to the same [apart from tiny residuals] level at every solar minimum. Since the variation of Total Solar Irradiance [TSI] is controlled by the magnetic field, the reconstruction of EUV does not support a varying ‘background’ on which the solar cycle variation of TSI rides, strongly suggesting that the Climate Data Records advocated by NOAA and NASA are not correct before the space age. Similarly, the reconstruction does not support the constancy of the calibration of the SORCE/TIM TSI-record since 2003, but rather indicates an upward drift, suggesting an overcorrection for sensor degradations.”
I would highlight this passage:
“The magnetic flux and EUV [and the sunspot number] are extremely well correlated with the F10.7 microwave flux, even on a daily basis. The tight correlations extend to other solar indices (Mg II, Ca II) reaching further back in time. Solar EUV creates and maintains the ionosphere. The conducting E-region [at ~105 km altitude] supports an electric current by a dynamo process due to thermal winds moving the conducting region across the Earth’s magnetic field. The resulting current has an easily observable magnetic effect at ground level, maintaining a diurnal variation of the geomagnetic field [discovered by Graham in 1722].”
This inductive process should introduce Lorentz force vectors into the atmospheric circulation processes? Changes in EUV should introduce changes in circulation?

TimTheToolMan
September 8, 2018 8:18 pm

And to follow on from Richard G’s point, since O3 is a GHG and its above the ERL, then any changes in it’s concentration will be a forcing in exactly the same way CO2 would. More O3 would cause the ERL to be at a greater altitude and less to be at a lower altitude.

Willis wrote

I’m sorry, but even with ionizing radiation, 0.002 W/m2 is to small to make a difference down at the surface.

…is about as useful as people arguing that since only 0.0004% of the atmosphere is CO2, it cant cause any great warming.

I was under the impression most of the skeptic arguments here are about attribution rather than finding (or dismissing) a single cause.

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 8:31 pm

Tim,

That’s true of most skeptics, but apparently not of Willis.

commieBob
September 8, 2018 12:52 am

One gets the impression that solar storms are fairly frequent but that their effects usually miss the Earth. We have observations of the effects of the Bastille Day event. The big one, so far, was the Carrington event.

Solar events may affect the ozone layer. Is there any evidence that the ozone layer, in turn, may affect the climate?

And even though the ozone hole can’t explain global-scale temperature trends over the past few decades, models do suggest that changes in atmospheric circulation due to the ozone hole have contributed to seasonal surface temperature trends in a few Southern Hemisphere locations, including warming of high latitudes of the Southern Ocean in late winter, and summertime warming of the Antarctic Peninsula and cooling of the continental interior. link

So, there’s some reason to believe that solar activity, by affecting the ozone layer, may have some effect on the climate.

As you say, there is much that we do not know. In any event, the alarmists use the fact that no other explanations work very well to insist that the main control knob is CO2. The CO2 explanation also has holes you can drive a bus through but that doesn’t bother them.

Jim G.
September 8, 2018 7:54 am

Good morning Willis.

I think that you may have missed my point regarding ionizing radiation.
Your response looked at the radiative heat transfer of those wavelengths. My point was regarding that these photon energies with break molecular compounds, altering the chemical composition thus changing the feedback associated with those compounds. If the feedback change is even just a few percent, that changes the forcing contribution of temperature due to CO2. (I realize now that I didn’t say that explicitly.) UV and other higher energies will break apart ozone and N2. The free nitrogen will combine with the free oxygen to create NOx compounds. This would be the most prevalent interaction, but they would split other molecules as well.

Called away….

commieBob
September 8, 2018 5:06 pm

It’s more UVB than EUV but you’ve surely experienced a sunburn. By far, the majority of solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface is longer wavelengths but you’re not going to get a sunburn from those.

It’s not just the watts, wavelength matters. Ultraviolet is dangerous even when measured in milliwatts per square meter. link

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 5:13 pm

Bob,

Yup. Thank God for the ozone layer, which filters out most of the UVB and all the UVC, due to ionizing oxygen molecules. Thanking Him even more, clouds do a pretty good job of blocking the UVB that makes it to the troposphere. UVA, not so much, but it’s less damaging.

Forty years ago, I warned my teen female friends not to tan from ten to two, because of the enhanced UVB, but they wouldn’t listen. Now they’re so leathery at reunions that they resemble their saddles. Not to mention skin cancer, which I have, too, but only carcinoma, not the lethal melanoma associated with UV damage.

Sorry about the almost literally “tanned” hides of my classmates, but it’s true. Also all our female wheat truck drivers over the intervening decades, whom I tried to warn. To no avail. Ideal of beauty over survival, anytime for a teen for whom 40 seems a distant and disgusting prospect.

And our culture looks down on Africans who practice scarification.

commieBob
September 8, 2018 5:34 pm

There was a spoof paper, Body Rituals of the Nacirema. Viewed from an objective standpoint, our culture can be pretty darn strange.

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 5:40 pm

And getting stranger, now that tattoos and multiple piercings are so normal that only branding and horn implants are all that those who wish to shock have left.

Javert Chip
September 9, 2018 3:27 pm

John

Oh, if that were only true. Someone will come along with a new shock effect – how ’bout wearing organs OUTSIDE the body?

John Tillman
September 9, 2018 3:34 pm

Javert,

Well, underwear on the outside is already a thing.

Wearing internal organs on the outside could well be the next big fashion statement later in this century. Breast and gluteal implants are so last century.

Jim G.
September 8, 2018 7:25 pm

Loved that story.
I found the book at an old book store one day.

Great descriptions of the Holy Mouth Men.
Cheers.

ferdperple
September 9, 2018 5:33 am

it makes a HUGE difference in radio propagation. Many orders of magnitude in 10-30 meter SW bands.

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 9:38 am

Bob,

Ozone has a profound effect on climate, in the stratosphere, troposphere, in the sea and on land. Its impact goes far beyond the ballyhooed Antarctic ozone hole.

For starters, it’s a greenhouse gas. It warms the stratosphere both from the GHE and from its reactions with oxygen molecules.

Ozone affects climate, and climate affects ozone. Temperature, humidity, pressure, winds and the presence of other molecules and chemical compounds in the atmosphere influence ozone formation, and the presence of ozone, in turn, affects those atmospheric phenomena and constituents. Dunno about precipitation, but odds are good.

It penetrates deeply into the ocean, with an outsized effect on warming there beyond the small share of TSI composed of the little UVB and all the UVC that reaches the surface might indicate.

Science probably doesn’t know all the ways in which ozone affects climate.

Ozonebust
September 8, 2018 5:48 pm

CommieBob
The SH ozonehole does not alter SH circulation, the ozonehole is caused by changes in atmospheric circulation as a consequence of increased tropical evaporation since the late seventies. The same evaporation increase that has influenced the 2 meter temperature. That’s what occurs during a warm phase.
Regards

Ulric Lyons
September 8, 2018 5:08 am

‘Here we use satellite observations from the ACE-FTS, MLS/Aura and SABER/TIMED to study the effects of solar proton events (SPEs) and strong sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) on the middle atmospheric odd nitrogen (NOx) and ozone levels in the Northern Hemispheric polar region. Three winters (January–March) are considered: (1) 2005 (SPE), (2) 2009 (SSW), and (3) 2012 (SPEs and SSW). These different cases provide a good opportunity to study the roles that transport from the mesosphere-lower thermosphere region and in situ production due to particle precipitation have on stratospheric NOx levels and the consequent effects on the middle atmospheric ozone. The observations show increases in NOx after both the SPEs (days to weeks) and SSWs (weeks to months) by up to a factor of 25 between 40 and 90 km. The largest mesospheric NOx increases are observed following the SSW in late January 2009, but the most substantial effects in the upper stratosphere are seen when both an SSW and in situ production by SPEs take place (2012), even though the in situ NOx production in 2012 was relatively weak in magnitude compared to periods of much higher solar activity. In 2012, both short-term (days, due to SPEs and odd hydrogen) depletion and longer-term (months, due to several drivers) depletion of ozone of up to 90% are observed in the mesosphere and upper stratosphere, coinciding with the enhanced amounts of NOx.’
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/236742146_Observed_effects_of_solar_proton_events_and_sudden_stratospheric_warmings_on_odd_nitrogen_and_ozone_in_the_polar_middle_atmosphere

Macha
September 9, 2018 6:08 am

All things ozone are discussed here. Especially southern hemisphere and observational no models.. https://reality348.wordpress.com

Farmer Ch E retired
September 8, 2018 5:26 am

Are there any experts out there who can comment on potential climate impacts caused by variations in the sun’s magnetic field which telegraph to the earths magnetic field?

Gerkenstein
Reply to  Farmer Ch E retired
September 8, 2018 8:32 am

Isn’t this the domain of Svensmark?

Farmer Ch E retired
September 8, 2018 10:59 am

Gerkenstein – I think of Svensmark as expert in cosmic-ray-induced cloud cover in the Hadley Cell near the equator. Granted, it is a secondary effect of reduced solar wind as the sun’s magnetic poles do a switch-a-rue. I was thinking of a more direct effect on climate resulting from earths own magnetic field as it changes in concert with the sun’s magnetic field.

Wayne Job
September 8, 2018 12:01 am

I do not dispute your figures or your conclusions Willis, what I would add is that when the Sun has a sabbatical like it is at the moment, it would seem that something else other than TSI starts to interfere with all the planets?

Steven Mosher
September 8, 2018 6:33 pm

unicorns, they explain everything

LdB
September 9, 2018 2:02 am

Isn’t that what you measure Mosh, statistical unicorns and then assign blame to someone?

DonM
September 10, 2018 9:29 am

first person truth thru sarcasm

September 8, 2018 12:05 am

Hi Willis,
Soon after the launch of Al Gore “Earth in the Balance” I read his claims of Patagonian fish and rabbits going blind from increasing UV from the Sun. Having done work with UV myself, I went looking and could not find much at all about systematic global or even local UV measurements. Maybe the data had not yet gone into the public domain.
Re extreme solar UV, I doubt it can be measured without satellites. It is a touchy wavelength bracket. So I am guessing, are your numbers are from a proxy? Geoff.

Ron Long
September 8, 2018 2:50 am

Geoff, Al Gore did relate blindness developing in Patagonia as a manifestation of carbon pollution, but the reality is different. Volcano Hudson erupted in 1991 and spread pyroclastic ash all over Patagonia. When I was first there in 1997 we worked one day when the 24 hour average wind speed was over 100 miles per hour. The blowing ash built up over the day and the effects were dramatic, like red eyes and stopped electric watches. Ranchers told us their sheep were having real problems with their eyes due to this blowing ash. It was common to find sheep skeletons huddled together under overhanging banks where they tried to get away from the initial pyroclastic event. Try peeing in a 100 mph wind, if you just turn your back to the wind you will discover the eddy effect. Back to EUV discussion!

Clyde Spencer
September 8, 2018 2:15 pm

Geoff,
There was a time that I was following the so-called “Ozone Hole” issue very closely. I tried very hard to uncover systematic global measurements of ground-level UV measurements. The lack of such data led me to write a computer model to try to predict surface-UV based on published Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer data. Even today, the best that seems to be available is a UV Index on a scale of 0 to about 14, which is a prediction for potential skin effects. As I understand it, one of the problems with measurement is the inability to keep systems well-calibrated because of the effects of UV on the pass-band of the filters.

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 12:18 am

Solar radiation doesn’t have to make it to the surface of the Earth to have an effect on climate.

All UVC and most UVB is absorbed by oxygen, yet these wavelengths have a profound effect on atmospheric chemistry and hence on Earth’s climatic system. They make and break ozone, for starters. The longer wavelengths which do reach the surface also have an outsized effect on climate.

That UV constitutes on average only some ten percent of TSI at the top of the atmosphere doesn’t mean that its climatic effect is insignificant. Higher-energy radiation has a qualitatively different impact on climatic phenomena, far beyond its quantitative share of TSI. This is true not only of the effect of UVC and UVB in the stratosphere and troposphere, but also of the UVB and UVA which do make it to the surface, since UV penetrates more deeply into water than visible and IR light.

The ozone-effective wavelengths of UV (130 to 240 nm) fluctuate far more than does TSI. The UV average hides huge swings during a solar cycle, and between cycles. Longer wavelength UVB and UVA also vary more than TSI, although less than UVC and higher-energy UVB wavelengths.

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 9:30 am

Willis,

Happy Saturday morning!

The point I was trying to make is that it doesn’t matter that the share of TSI that is ozone-effect is small. As Jim also observes, UVC and UVB are uniquely able to make and break ozone. Thus, the fact that the amount of this ionizing radiation fluctuates widely is the relevant issue, not that it constitutes a tiny fraction of all solar EM flux.

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 10:16 am

Make that “ozone-effective”. I changed the sentence without correcting all its parts. No excuse given the edit function.

September 8, 2018 4:12 am

Exactly correct John.

In addition to the large fluctuations of UV/EUV light the climatic impacts of both UV light and EUV light are significant.

UV light impacting overall oceanic sea surface temperatures as is what is happening now , they are trending lower due to very weak UV light while EUV light impacts the atmospheric circulation tending to make it more meridional in nature when EUV light intensities are low.

As is evident the global temperatures are trending down, and once again happening when solar is in the tank, and this is the 1st inning.

Another attempt to try to diminish the role of the solar/climate connection.

KAT
September 8, 2018 12:19 am

And the elephant in the room:
GCRs and Svensmark’s hypothesis!

KAT
September 8, 2018 3:38 am

Elephant in the room
(idiomatic) A problem or difficult issue that is very obvious, but is ignored

Nowhere in the above post are either Galactic Cosmic Rays or Svensmark’s name mentioned. The CLOUD experiment provided scientific support for Svensmark’s hypothesis with regard to the formation of clouds. Clouds affect climate at the surface do they not?

http://ddears.com/2017/07/28/clouds-and-global-warming/

bonbon
September 8, 2018 4:06 am

Svensmark and Shaviv’s work is often cited here. Note a video from 03.18 where Svensmark takes on the CLOUD results carefully, reveals CERN modelled aerosol growth, not measured it. ~52 min into

DonM
September 10, 2018 10:13 am

KAT,

in reading through the comments, it is apparent that you (we) need to be specific with respect to what climate you are talking about.

The qualifier “… affects the climate at the surface …” is used to distract, as if there were two distinct separate non-interacting climates.

Above, in response to Jim G, he also wants to make the point that it (ionizing radiation) is to slight to make a difference at the surface.

So apparently, you need to differentiate between atmospheric climate and surface climate … they are two different non-interacting things. To assume otherwise confounds the intent of the subject post. 🙂

DonM
September 10, 2018 6:13 pm

So I’ll ask. Are you, or are you not, saying that changes at the mid to upper-stratosphere (whether related to UV or GCR) do not (cannot?) translate to measurable or observable changes at the surface…?

You mention the ionosphere (and inclusive thermosphere) … I don’t care.

See reference (by gans krishna) to article (& paper by ) below at 10:00 am.

See Stephen Wilde

DonM
September 11, 2018 10:06 am

I realize it is an old thread, but I’ll inquire again.

Do you think there is not a significant connection between surface and stratosphere?;

or do you think SUN/GCR changes do not significantly impact stratosphere?;

and why do we want to talk about the thermosphere?

(and I gave you a ‘+’ for not calling my cousins parasites this time)

DonM
September 12, 2018 8:55 am

Yep, tell us more about the thermosphere….

September 8, 2018 4:38 am

All the evidence is there from changes in the global electrical circuit to Forbush events which effect cloud coverage all tied into to changes in galactic cosmic rays.

It is just not the solar magnetic field when it comes to galactic cosmic ray intensities and where they may be concentrated on the earth but also the geo magnetic field strength and configuration.

The bottom line being to get the proper handle on galactic cosmic rays and their impact as it may relate to solar , the geo magnetic field contribution must be taken into account.

This makes the solar /galactic cosmic ray connection much less straight forward, as is the case with all the solar/climate connections. This is why so many can’t get it. They want black and white instant results.

bonbon
September 8, 2018 10:07 am

The MHD plasma simulation of the Magnetosphere and Solar wind, looks even more difficult than the atmospheric models. Although maybe not – I’ll bet LLNL could handle it.
Still, has anyone seen such a model for 1 solar cycle. As mentioned above no satellite has lasted 1 full cycle, so it looks like a very difficult test. Add GCR’s into that already active plasma. Self organizing plasma activity is likely flattened out by the MHD theory.

Utterbilge
September 8, 2018 12:23 am

Willis has outdone Warhol as a climate bore– sitting down to watch the Empire State building for 24 straight hours pales in comparison to sharing even the briefest of prayer breakfasts with the Solomon Islands answer to Willie Soon.

Moderately Cross of East Anglia
September 8, 2018 1:20 am

That didn’t sound bitter and twisted at all, did it?

I didn’t know Andy Warhol ever talked about climate though, that would be interesting as he was actually a very clever man, contrary to the dismissive attitude some people have to his art.

Another Ian
Reply to  Moderately Cross of East Anglia
September 8, 2018 2:30 am

Perfectly balanced – chip on each shoulder

John Tillman
Reply to  Moderately Cross of East Anglia
September 8, 2018 6:54 pm

IIRC, Warhol’s definition of a “supermodel” was one whom you could take to a party and she wouldn’t steal the silverware.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veruschka_von_Lehndorff

Jim G.
Reply to  Moderately Cross of East Anglia
September 8, 2018 7:30 pm

I believe that Mr. Warhol held this conversation over a cup of tea and soup.
Tomato of course.

Gary Pearse
September 8, 2018 7:51 am

Oh my! Bilge, your information-free comment is a ‘tell’. Wouldn’t it be wonderful if guys like Willis would just go away and let your elitist marxbrothers тотаliтагуаиs just get on with their nice plans for us.

September 8, 2018 1:36 am

“From peak to trough over the sunspot cycle, the top-of-atmosphere total solar irradiance varies by about 1.2 watts per square metre (W/m2) … which, when averaged over the entire surface of the earth gives a change of about 0.28 W/m2. This is less than a tenth of one percent variation in total incoming energy.”

…but that’s obscuring the story…

If you discount the amount of TSI variation that much, you also have to discount the same percentage of global atmospheric effects from AGW, too, since the falloff in solar energy reaching the ground is affected in exactly the same way.

That one-tenth of one percent of variance (not what reaches the ground) is interesting, when you note that Earth’s average temperature is about 290 Kelvin. It’s about 0.29K (the same in degrees C, of course). Account for that, and a lot of the “0.8 C observed global warming” goes away.

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 9:44 am

Also, small changes in TSI over the decades adds up. Heat is stored in the oceans and moved around by them. During long solar minima, such as the Maunder, oceans naturally cool off. During long intervals of higher activity, such as in the 20th century, Earth’s waters warm up.

More active solar cycles also affect other climatic phenomena.

Alan Tomalty
September 8, 2018 1:36 am

Willis said

“Now, downwelling radiation at the surface of the earth averages about 500 W/m2 on a 24/7 average basis.

Thanks to you Willis I no longer believe in the IR magnetic gradient theory as it applies to radiation transfer between 2 bodies. My mistake was in believing Dr Charles Anderson at face value. I am beginning to think he even made that theory up.

However your quote is based on accepting the word of NASA who also makes things up. One cannot have an internal system (which is basically at equilibrium or is oscillating around an equilibrium ) which has an average flow greater than the original flow (even if diurnal ) that supplied the system in the 1st place. It is a mathematics flow problem with a 1st law as stated above. Another problem with the back radiation is that NASA measures it with pyrgeometers which default to emissivity of 1. The earth atmosphere is definitely not a black body. A 3rd problem is that NASA doesnt even show upward radiation for the rest of the emission of back radiation . If there is DWIR there has to be an upward flow to equal it because the photons are directed isotropically (all directions).

September 8, 2018 3:10 am

“Ah, you don’t understand”, folks inform me, “Yes, TSI only changes by a tenth of a percent over a solar cycle. But extreme ultraviolet (EUV) varies as a percentage much, much more than that!”

Willis mate, I may be senile and out of touch but this is a straw man I have never heard anyone voice.

You do well at knocking it down, but who, pray, is setting it up?

Phil.
September 8, 2018 9:06 am

It comes up here every time the topic of solar influence comes up, I’ve lost count of how many times I’ve corrected posts on the subject. Recently in a post by Andy May he made the following comment:
“in particular there is considerable circumstantial evidence that variations in the solar magnetic field and variations in high frequency radiation, such as UV and EUV, play a role in climate and are only loosely related to variations in TSI”

September 8, 2018 11:28 am

Ah. Ok.

I notice for some reason you have been downvoted..

Well thanks for the info anyway.

ozspeaksup
September 8, 2018 3:11 am

hmm but what else gets in when the mag shield is weaker as is stated to be the current state?
spaceweather is saying quite a bit more then “normal/usual” radiation incoming though mainly at 10k ft n up
would have some effect?

Hans-Georg
September 8, 2018 3:22 am

Mh, that’s a very short article. No solar researcher will refer to extreme ultraviolet radiation alone when changing ultraviolet radiation. Total ultraviolet radiation (which Willis largely omits) will decrease by 7 percent at a (supposed) Maunder minimum, which may be within the whole TSI a tiny fraction. But, however, ultraviolet radiation is not only relevant to the thermozone. For example, ultraviolet radiation penetrates far deeper into water than the TSI radiation as a whole, so there is not only an effect on the stratosphere i.e thermozone (which Willis only uses, in realities there is a lot more), but there are also effects directly on the surface of the earth. I am not a solar scientist, but with the knowledge that I have so far learned about such studies, this article comes to me as a typical Willis (anti-solar in terms of climate effects).

Andy May
September 8, 2018 5:17 am

Hans-Georg,

For example, ultraviolet radiation penetrates far deeper into water than the TSI

This is the key point, ocean warming or cooling is disproportionately affected by UV. UV can penetrate 1,000 meters into the ocean, IR and red are absorbed.

Another point, whatever is causing the 0.9 degrees of warming over the last 120 years is an extremely small effect, integrated over that time. One solar cycle, which is all the consistent data we have, is not long enough to give us a hint of longer term changes in the Sun. No solar satellite has lasted more than one cycle. So we are looking for a very small long-term change in the Sun, that integrates and we don’t have accurate long-term data. Too early to rule out the Sun as a cause of warming.

September 8, 2018 7:17 am

Exactly Andy, and we are seeing it happen yet again. Look at he overall oceanic sea surface temperatures down almost .2c in the last year.

September 8, 2018 7:39 am

Too early to rule out the Sun as a cause of warming.
By the same token it is too early to rule in the Sun.

Editor
September 8, 2018 8:04 am

Leif, true enough. The proper answer is we don’t know. The necessary change is so small and over such a long time, we may not know in our lifetimes.

September 8, 2018 8:08 am

Then we should not pretend that we know…

Jim G.
September 8, 2018 10:19 am

I apologize, but I must disagree sir.
We posit theories based on what we think we know. As we should.

However, these theories, with associated cgi models that would make George Lucas proud are based on hundreds of variables that we are unsure of the magnitude, and in some cases, may actually be wrong in regards to the sign.

The problem here is that these theories are demanding the expenditure of 100’s of billions to trillions of dollars on a problem that may very well be out of our control.

Instead, we should be examining the cost-benefit analysis based on the world’s problems.

e.g. with \$1 billion (US) and a course of treatment cost of \$2.50 for malaria, you could treat 400million people. If you ask me, that would have a far greater impact on the human condition than 300-400 2MW wind turbines.

If Feynman could wiggle an elephant’s trunk with 5 variables, CMIP-5 should be able to put a Conga line of elephants on Pluto.

September 8, 2018 1:27 pm

but I must disagree sir
What exactly do you disagree with?

Jim G.
September 8, 2018 7:41 pm

Well, going back over your first statement, “too early to rule the sun in” several times, I may not be entirely sure that I understood what you meant.

I believe that by your statements (past and present) that the sun has been or could be ruled out as a culprit behind present warming/climate change.

By saying that it is too soon to rule it in to me implies that we have the necessary and sufficient knowledge to make the claim that CO2 is the driver behind warming/climate change.

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 7:45 pm

Jim,

IMO all objective evidence from reality shows that we can rule out CO2 as the control knob on climate.

There is ample evidence for ruling solar variations in as at least a control knob, if not the control knob. As modulated by orbital and rotational mechanics (Milankovitch cycles), oceanic circulation and longer term factors such as plate tectonics, internal Earth heat loss and solar evolution.

September 8, 2018 8:00 pm

Solar variation does not explain this: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6/plot/uah6/trend
..
Nor does solar variation explain this: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp/plot/gistemp/trend

September 8, 2018 8:08 pm

The orbital variations are not solar variations and work on timescales too long to be of interest or consequences for the current debate.

September 8, 2018 8:05 pm

You are jumping to an unwarranted conclusion.
What I say is that we don’t have enough evidence that the Sun is the major driver. That alone does not imply what you surmise. There could be other reasons, e.g. ocean currents, or just random fluctuations of a complex, non-linear system. Climate change may have many causes all working at the same time.

September 8, 2018 8:10 pm

There is always the possibility that the recent rise in atmospheric green house gasses has led to the recent warming .

September 8, 2018 8:12 pm

The problem I see is that assuming there is a “control knob” is incorrect. There are multiple control knobs that have bizarre interactions between each other that we as yet don’t understand.

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 8:14 pm

DD,

Yet “consensus” paper after paper insists upon the CO2 “control knob”. Indeed, the whole CACA scam requires this antiphysical fantasy to sustain its scare tactics.

September 8, 2018 8:18 pm

Your strawman holds no water. Why don’t you explain what is “antiphysical” Can’t wait for you to see how you upend physics.

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 8:30 pm

DD,

Need you ask? Wouldn’t want to keep you waiting.

Actual physical observations of the real climate system, rather than GIGO computer games, show that at most ECS lies in the range 1.0 to 1.5 degrees C per doubling of CO2.

The lab value, without feedbacks in the complex climate system in 1.1 to 1.2 degrees C. But under certain circumstances, such as the hot, moist tropics, the feedback is net negative. On a global basis, the best observations show a range of 1.0 to 1.5 degrees C.

That’s what’s physical. IPCC’s 1.5 to 4.5 degrees C is pure fantasy, except at its lower range, where it’s merely fictional.

September 8, 2018 8:33 pm

You did not tell me what is “antiphysical”

September 8, 2018 8:35 pm

ECS is not “observable” because the climate is not in EQUILIBRIUM (the E in ECS)

ECS is inferred, didn’t you know that?

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 8:39 pm

DD,

Yes, I did.

We know that ECS can’t be in the range of IPCC GIGO derivations, except possibly at its lowest possible extent, because “equilibrium” is itself unphysical.

It’s just another weasel word for squirming away from physical reality.

Tell me when in your opinion the Modern Warming Period will be in equilibrium, and when the LIA was in equilibrium. Thanks!

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 8:40 pm

No, its’ not inferred. It’s assumed at some future date, always conveniently after Michael Mann will be retired or dead.

September 8, 2018 8:50 pm

Thank you Tilman, you’ve shown you don’t know what ECS really is.
..
Still waiting on your explanation of “antiphysical.”

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 8:53 pm

DD,

I know what the GIGO charlatans of IPCC claim it to be.

That alone shows it has no physical reality.

September 8, 2018 9:02 pm

LOL @ Tillman, an “inferred” value of something that will happen sometime in the future is anti-physical.

You’d be good as a stand up comic

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 9:07 pm

DD,

And yet, that is precisely what the comics at IPCC do.

For them, ECS is whatever they want it to be and mean, so far in the future is it.

Why is this hard for you to grok?

Please state what you imagine ECS to have been in AD 1850. How about during the Cretaceous Period? Have I lost you entirely?

September 8, 2018 9:09 pm

I’m laughing at what you posted: “Actual physical observations of the real climate system, rather than GIGO computer games, show that at most ECS lies in the range 1.0 to 1.5 degrees C per doubling of CO2”

No such “observations” exist.

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 9:14 pm

DD.

Just because you somehow have missed these observations, apparently because you haven’t wanted to look at them, doesn’t mean that they don’t exist.

Were you to read posts on this blog, rather than just spew CACA cant, you’d know of numerous recent papers finding ECS well below 1.5 degrees C, even assuming the physical reality of the construct “equilibrium climate sensitivity”.

September 8, 2018 9:18 pm

You can find papers that show ECS > 3.2 degrees C.

How do you know which “papers” are correct and which ones are not?. Obviously if your source of information is this blog, your data source is somewhat limited and biased.

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 9:21 pm

DD,

I don’t get my scientific papers from this blog.

There are no credible papers showing ECS higher than 2.0 degrees C per doubling.

Those supporting the “canonical” 3.0 or higher are packs of lies.

CACA spewers claim one degree C warming since AD 1850, which is a lie. But for the sake of argument, accept that totally bogus mendacity.

Now consider that the effect is logarithmic. That means that most of the warming should already have occurred from 280 ppm in AD 1850 to 410 ppm in 2018. If this increase has produced a degree of warming, and it’s all due to humans, which of course it isn’t, then that means that ECS must be less than two degrees C per doubling.

QED.

September 8, 2018 9:27 pm

LOL… “credible”
..

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 9:37 pm

DD,

Not an opinion. A conclusion based upon the abject pathetic special pleading of any paper finding an ECS greater than 2.0.

I’ve already referenced actual physical reality since AD 1850 to show this to be the case. But CACA acolyties aren’t interested in reality.

September 8, 2018 9:23 pm

Case in point, if the rise in CO2 has caused modern warming, we’ve already passed 1.0 degrees C in warming in going from 280 ppm to 410 ppm with 150 ppm yet to go to double CO2 from pre-industrial times. (not counting thermal inertia lag)

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 9:34 pm

DD,

Your baseless conjecture is easily shown false.

From the 1940s until 1977, Earth cooled dramatically, despite steadily rising CO2. Then the PDO flipped and the planet warmed slightly for about 20 years, until the super El Nino of 1998. After that, at best we enjoyed flat global temperatures for about another 20 years, again despite even more rapidly increasing CO2, until the super El Nino of 2016. Since then, in spite of even more rapidly increasing CO2, Earth has cooled rapidly.

Hence, the 1988 hypothesis of CACA was born falsified.

The original proponents of AGW considered it beneficial. To the extent that it exists, Arrhenius and Callendar were right.

September 8, 2018 9:36 pm

There is no such thing as a “hypothesis of CACA”

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 9:41 pm

DD,

Of course there is. It’s the whole enchilada of the “climate change” scam.

Climate is scarcely affected by anthropogenic activity, except on a regional basis. So far, man-made increases in vital plant food in the air have been beneficial, not catastrophic.

Hence alarmism is not only unwarranted but clearly against all reality.

September 8, 2018 9:48 pm

Post a link to a scientific paper with “catastrophic” in it’s hypothesis

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 10:00 pm

DD,

If man-made CO2 isn’t dangerous, a threat, disastrous or catastrophic, then what is the problem?

We know that so far more plant food in the air has been highly beneficial.

How can you possibly imagine that The Team hasn’t tried to sell man-made CO2 as a dangerous threat, the gravest which mankind now faces, or has ever faced? Have you been packed in cotton since 1988?

Hansen says that we’re “on the Venus Express” to boiling oceans. That’s a whole book, not just a paper. Here’s his short version of “boiling seas”:

Climate Threat to the Planet The Venus Syndrome

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2008/AGUBjerknes20081217.pdf

“The Venus syndrome is the greatest threat to the planet, to humanity’s continued existence.” That doesn’t sound “catastrophic” to you?

But I’m sure you’ve been shown numerous papers predicting catastrophic effects in the past, but keep, out of paid trolling, asking for the same papers over and over again.

September 8, 2018 10:04 pm

It’s quite simple, we DO NOT KNOW what is going to happen. It could be mild, it could be bad, or it could wipe out humans. Nobody knows.

September 8, 2018 10:05 pm

We do know it is warming things up.

September 8, 2018 10:07 pm

So what do you tell the investors that want to build in Miami? Do you say, “don’t worry about seal level rise?” Do you tell them “build on the highest ground you can find?” Or do you tell them don’t build in Miami? (basements flooding with salt water are problematic)

September 8, 2018 10:14 pm

Don
September 9, 2018 5:58 am

That would be Miami Beach? I politely refrained from correcting friends about that situation at dinner last night, but let’s review:
1. Flooding areas are built on former mangrove swamps which are subsiding. Over 80 years, this means older homes have subsided 16-24 cm. See http://www.ces.fau.edu/arctic-florida/pdfs/fiaschi-wdowinski.pdf
2. Increased impervious area (i.e. buildings and roads) with nowhere to drain the water effectively (since this is all low-lying land) means that when land area can no longer function to absorb tidal surges and storm events, that water doesn’t just magically evaporate. This is basic civil engineering!

One should say that the problem of Miami Beach flooding is primarily a problem of increased impervious area in low-lying coastal land with a high water table. Relative sea level trend of Miami Beach– which includes subsidence of about 2-3mm/year according to Fiashi and Wdowinski– is 2.39mm/year, which in light of the subsidence component is extremely hard to pin on “rising sea levels,” except in the minds of those who specialize in misappropriating causes in order to “prove” their theory. Any minor actual sea level rise is exacerbated and magnified by the unfortunate civil engineering conditions, which are the true and primary cause of the flooding.
Don132

September 8, 2018 9:41 pm

“From the 1940s until 1977, Earth cooled dramatically”
.
Nope
.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp/from:1945/to:1977/plot/gistemp/from:1945/to:1977/trend

September 8, 2018 9:43 pm
September 8, 2018 9:45 pm
John Tillman
September 8, 2018 9:48 pm

My “cutoff” date was for no other reason than that the PDO so dramatically flipped that year, as I well remember.

That was the one year in my whole life in which we came close to having a wheat crop failure. There was practically no snow in the Wallowa Mountains, yet it was bitterly cold.

Why do you suppose I mention the well know year of PDO flip?

Plainly, you know nothing and wrongly assume much.

September 8, 2018 9:51 pm

So, you’re admitting to cherry picking.
.
Thank you

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 9:46 pm

DD,

Are you so naive actually to believe that GISS’ cooked to crisp books reflect reality?

Look at NOAA’s own temperature reconstruction from 1977. Since then, the dramatic cooling of the ’40s to ’70s has of course been “adjusted” out of existence by criminal CACA conspirators.

You might be too young to recall the concern over a returning ice age in the 1970s, after three decades of cold, colder and coldest climate.

Thus, CACA was born falsified.

September 8, 2018 9:50 pm

Got proof? Waving your hands doesn’t count for much.

September 8, 2018 9:55 pm

” the concern over a returning ice age in the 1970s” Wasn’t any scientific evidence to back it up.
..
I’m impressed at all the “myths” you believe in: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1

Don
September 9, 2018 8:54 am

Not only do alarmists misappropriate causes to “prove” their theory, but they also rewrite history! https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/05/21/the-1970s-ice-age-scare/

Wait a minute– fears of impending cold while CO2 levels were rising? Oceans must have eaten an awful lot of warmth in those years.

Don132

September 8, 2018 8:27 pm

There is no doubt that it led to some warming. The question is How Much?

September 8, 2018 10:22 am

No it is not true we know the sun influences the climate and many papers support this and it is happening right now again. it is not just the sun it is
also the geo magnetic field.

What we do not know is what are the thresholds necessary (in regards to magnitude degree of change/duration)e to create a more dramatic change in the climate as opposed to minor ones. That is the million dollar question

Editor
September 8, 2018 9:19 am

Leif, Who is pretending? Why would you write that? Presumably you are referring to the IPCC who claim to “know” the Sun has been invariant for the past 67 years. In my last post on the subject I wrote the following:

The Sun is a variable star but measuring the amount of variation and its effect on climate eludes us, especially in the longer term. Multiple proxies confirm this, although some solar proxies appear to vary in phase with climate proxies, we don’t really know much more than that. These are all proxies and hypothetical mechanisms that provide cause-and-effect between the Sun’s variability and climate abound, but none are quantitative or have been proven by making predictions that are later verified.

And, of course, the satellite measurements are far too inaccurate and short to make any difference.

September 8, 2018 1:31 pm

who is pretending
Most people on this blog, e.g. Salvatore:
No it is not true we know the sun influences the climate and many papers support this and it is happening right now again.
and Javier, and …

I am not referring to IPCC, but to me. The sun has been invariant [except for cyclic sunspot related variations] for at least 300 and perhaps 400 years, that is: there has been no long term trend [up or down] over that time interval.

Andy May
September 8, 2018 5:48 pm

A very bold assertion, given the poor quality of our solar and climate proxies. Who knows, maybe we will live long enough to find out if you are right. Personally, I don’t want to pretend I know …

September 8, 2018 6:20 pm

Our solar data [not proxies] are actually pretty good and consistent among themselves. The climate ones not so much.

The solar data have been consolidated and cross-checked.
A good source is: http://www.leif.org/research/EUV-F107-and-TSI-CDR-HAO.pdf

Andy May
September 9, 2018 4:24 am

Leif,
In the calculations above I should have corrected for energy reflected, which is about 30%. That reduces the starting point to about 240 W/m2. 2.3/240=1%. Thus, over 120 years, 0.008%/year. The best data is from 1996 to 2016, this is a change of 0.2%, we would never see it.
Andy

Andy May
September 9, 2018 3:57 am

Leif,
Your underlying assumption that all proxies have a horizontal floor that represents a constant low level of solar activity in recent centuries is questionable. And as your powerpoint shows it is still up for debate. Correlation is not causation.

Besides, we do not know how your solar proxies relate to solar output precisely enough to detect a change that could affect climate. The Sun puts out ~1361 W/m2, measured at 1AU, corrected to an average at TOA we divide by 4, and get ~340 W/m2. The total change in forcing required to cause the warming we have seen recently, according to the IPCC (AR5 WG1, page 696-698), is about 2.3 W/m2 or 0.7%. If the Sun were to supply all of that forcing, but as a steady change over 120 years, the change each year would be 0.019 W/m2/per year or 0.006%/year.

In short, your proxies are nowhere near accurate enough over the short time periods we are discussing. We need exceedingly accurate measurements to detect the solar changes that could account for our observed climate changes.

Thanks for the ppt, but it isn’t enough. I agree there is no support (at least not yet) for a “variable TSI background.” But, the data provides no way to see one with the precision we need to see. Thus, we cannot conclude the Sun is constant. If it varied enough to matter to our climate, we still wouldn’t see it with the data we have.

September 9, 2018 5:32 am

Your underlying assumption that all proxies have a horizontal floor that represents a constant low level of solar activity in recent centuries is questionable
Not an assumption, but an observation. Already Loomis knew that in the 1870s.

If it varied enough to matter to our climate, we still wouldn’t see it with the data we have.
The inferred solar magnetic field [both in interplanetary space and on the surface – given by EUV] are well-observed. TSI depends directly on that field. Our proxies show very clearly the solar cycle variation of TSI [0.1%] which is much less than your 0.7%, so that change would be observable.

September 9, 2018 5:49 am

Because dS/S = 4 dT/T, a 1 degree change in temperature (dT= 1) would require a change of 20 W/m2 of TST (S) which is 3000 times greater than the precision of TSI or 40 times greater than the accuracy with which we measure TSI., thus easily measured.
Another way of putting it: the 0.1% change of TSI over the solar cycle which is easily measured corresponds to a dT of 0.07 degrees.

Andy May
September 9, 2018 11:58 am

I don’t understand the 20 W/m2. But, the other number I get. I computed 0.009%/year for an average solar cycle of eleven years, although twice that number (0.018%/year) might be better since that covers just the increase to the middle of the cycle, say 6 years. The forcing required for a 1 degree change in global temperature, according to AR5, is 2.3 W/m2. 102 W/m2 is reflected. 1361/4=340.25. 1370/4=342.5. It would seem the total solar output change, over 120 years (or longer) would be ~9.0W/m2, right? This is 0.075 W/m2/year. One solar cycle is about ~1.3 W/m2 total or 0.22 W/m2/year using a 6 year half cycle to divide with (I’m eyeballing the ACRIM composite, perhaps 2 W/m2 peak to trough is better, not sure). I need to check on the computed accuracy of the TSI measurements. Especially considering that no satellite has operated for longer than a cycle and a half. Anyway, it is still possible a long term change (120 years) is lost in the noise and the data massaging.

September 9, 2018 12:52 pm

I don’t understand the 20 W/m2
This is very simple and not controversial:
The relation between radiation S and temperature T is dS/S = 4 dT/T because of the Stefan-Boltzmann law. The dS means the change of S and dT is the change of T.
This means that dS=4 S dT/T. With S = 1361 W/m2, T = 288 K, and dT = 1 K, we get dS = 19 W/m2. Note that things like albedo and emissivity [black or grey body] and greenhouse gas effects cancel out in the relative variability dX/X by using the actual observed mean temperature T = 288 K.

Looking at solar cycles: an average cycle varies from 0 to 10 Groups [yearly average] and TSI varies 1.5 W/m2, so 1 group means 0.15 W/m2. Since we have determined the Group Number for every year since 1610, we have a corresponding TSI value for every year, unless you postulate that the Sun behaved differently in the past from now. In science we usually go with ‘the smallest miracle’ principle. To claim that the Sun has changed in such a fundamental way just when we are looking at it would be a greater miracle than believing that it did not, and thus that we have a well-determined series for TSI into the past.

September 9, 2018 1:23 pm

Since we actually measure TSI [and not the forcing], I use TSI. This removes a lot of useless whining about forcing etc.

September 9, 2018 1:28 pm

If we use your value of 0.075 W/m2/year, then over the 40 years of observed TSI, we should have seen a change of 40*0.075 = 3 W/m2, which is 6 times larger that the accuracy claimed for SORCE 0.5 W/m2, and is not observed . So your calculation does not hold water.

Editor
September 9, 2018 2:29 pm

OK, thanks Leif. A lot to look over and think about. Whether the Sun needs to vary 9 W/m2 or 20 W/m2 over 120 years, is probably not a big deal in this context. I’ve not seen the dS/S calculation before, but I’ll work on it. As for the 40-year record, I’m still troubled by the composites of the data. Although I agree the accuracy of SORCE should be about 0.5 W/m2 in the beginning of the record, it changes over the life of the instrument, increasing at the end. Presumably the other satellites are worse in this regard, so long-term trends are problematic. How much is assumption and how much of the long-term trend is in the data? What is the real long-term trend error. I’ll look into it.

September 9, 2018 2:51 pm

One way of looking at it is to note that ALL of our other solar proxies agree on their long-term variation [at least back to the 1880s] and with the TSI composite based on the magnetic field. The result is that they all agree that we now have the same situation as we had at the beginning of the 20th century. Thus TSI back then was not markedly different from now while it should have been 8 W/m2 lower with your adopted 0.075 W/m2/yr change.

Editor
September 9, 2018 4:06 pm

Ok, worth checking out. 9 is a lot, so you might be right.

billhunter
September 8, 2018 7:22 pm

“By the same token it is too early to rule in the Sun.”
By the same token it is too early to rule in anything.

September 8, 2018 8:00 pm

No, we can, for example rule in that the Earth is round and revolves around the Sun.

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 8:04 pm

Leif,

Or to be more technically accurate, the barycenter of the lumpy, ovoid spheroid Earth and its moon orbit the shifting barycenter of the solar system, which happens usually to lie within the Sun, but not at its center.

That is, ignoring galactic effects, as the solar system orbits the barycenter of the Milky Way.

I mention this quibble because I’ve noticed that gravity “denying” “electric universe” whacko birds sadly frequent this esteemed blog.

But at least they are less numerous than the creationist whacko birds which have regrettably garnered such negative PR for this otherwise excellent site, which has attracted such luminaries as yourself.

September 8, 2018 8:25 pm

No, the Earth orbits the center of the Sun. We know this because very accurate measurements of TSI shows that TSI depends on the inverse square of the distance between the Earth and the center of the Sun.
http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE%20Friday%20Effect.pdf

The distance between to Earth and the center of the Sun is 215 solar radii. If that distance would be only 214 solar radii [e.g. to the ‘barycenter’] TSI would be 1% larger and that is not observed

September 8, 2018 8:31 pm

Leif, correct me if I am wrong, but doesn’t the Earth orbit the Sun in an ellipse, with the center of the sun being one of the foci, and the difference between perihelion (147 Mkm) and aphelion (152 Mkm) being about 5 million km?

[?? .mod]

mod…….learn about orbital mechanics please, and don’t put question marks up that show you don’t know about reality

September 8, 2018 8:33 pm

You are correct. We see that as a 7% variation of TSI.

September 8, 2018 8:47 pm

Thank you Leif

September 8, 2018 8:46 pm

Start here “mod” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth%27s_orbit

Note the table of “orbital characteristics” with aphelion, perihelion, semi major axis, and eccentricity.

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 8:34 pm

Leif,

The barycenter is constantly changing, so within the limits of measurement, how can one conclude one way or the other?

Simply on physical grounds, IMO, the correct answer is that it’s the barycenter, which moves, but is usually so close to the center of mass of the sun as to make no discernible difference.

September 8, 2018 8:40 pm

The measurements are precise enough that one can conclude which way it is. At times the barycenter is even outside the Sun. The distance between the barycenter and the Earth would then be smaller than between the center of the Sun and TSI would be different enough that we could easily measure it. No such discrepancy is found.

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 8:48 pm

Leif,

You are oh so right! In part.

The solar system of course has a barycenter. Based upon locations of the planets, the barycenter of the solar system can be below the surface of the sun or more than twice the sun’s diameter outside of the its surface.

Thus we have the two-body problem, which in the case of the Earth-Moon system is at least three bodies.

But if you’re convinced that the Earth-Moon system, despite its own constantly changing barycenter, always orbits the center of mass of the Sun, with only its orbital eccentricity affected by Jupiter and the rest of the mass of the solar system, then who am I to question your authority in celestial mechanics?

My take, however, remains that, disregarding the effects of Jupiter and other mass in the solar system, the Earth-Moon system in isolation orbits the barycenter of the Sun-(Earth-Moon) system, which is so close to the center of mass of the Sun as to make no difference.

At least, it seems to me that that is the correct solution in both the Newtonian and relativistic models. Please correct if wrong.

September 8, 2018 9:00 pm

You don’t need to believe my authority on anything. We have precise measurements of TSI. TSI varies with the inverse square of the distance to the Sun so we actually measure that distance and we find that it is precisely the distance to the center of the Sun at all times [with a very small modulation due to the Moon] and not to the barycenter.

You can make a thought experiment: image a double star with two stars of equal mass in orbits with eccentricity zero. Their barycenter is precisely halfway between the two stars. The intensity of the light that each star shines on the other depends on the [constant] distance between the two stars and not on the distance from the invisible barycenter.

The same way, TSI from the Sun depends on the distance to the center of the Sun, and not to the invisible barycenter.

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 9:05 pm

Lief,

I’m talking gravity, not TSI.

Now, I grant you that gravity and EM radiation both travel at the speed of light, hence are subject to the inverse square law.

But solar radiation doesn’t emanate from the gravitational center of the Sun, at least not immediately.

And we also know that gravity affects EM radiation.

The differences are likely to be too small to measure, but light and gravity relative to Earth and Sun aren’t identical.

September 8, 2018 9:14 pm

TSI and gravity depends on distance exactly the same way [except from very tiny relativistic effects that we actually correct for.]. And the issue at hand is the Sun’s influence on climate, so TSI is the quantity to measure. And the radiation we measure varies as the distance from the center of the Sun. This is not controversial. LASP uses that distance to refer TSI to a distance of 1 AU in order to eliminate the effect of the orbit.

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 9:18 pm

Leif,

TSI is not the only solar parameter relevant to terrestrial climate.

As repeatedly pointed out here, the ozone-effective UV component has its own effect on climate. UV in general fluctuates more widely than TSI, and also differentially affects such climatic phenomena as ocean water penetration, a separate issue from its effect on O2 in the atmosphere.

Then there are the knock-on effects of ozone on the atmosphere, to include air pressure, hence wind and circulation, and precipitation.

That UV is a small share of TSI scarcely matters, given its qualitative differences with visible and IR radiation.

September 8, 2018 9:23 pm

UV varies in synchronism with the sunspot number, but no sunspot cycle effect on climate above the noise has been firmly established, so no effect of UV is evident. Observations trump wishful thinking.

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 9:29 pm

Leif,

No wishful thinking. Simply observations.

Longer cycles of solar cycles correlate with the Modern Warming Period, just as lower cycles of cycles correlated with the Maunder and Dalton Minima.

IMO the evidence is overwhelming and incontrovertible that multidecadal to centennial scale solar variation satisfactorily explains observations of climatic fluctuation, with oceanic lags and events such as volcanic eruptions thrown in.

September 8, 2018 9:48 pm

Perhaps Andy’s admission that “The proper answer is we don’t know. The necessary change is so small and over such a long time, we may not know in our lifetimes.” would be helpful to you.
It is also an observational fact that climate and solar activity have been going in opposite direction the last ~40 years, which is less than ‘satisfactorily’. Now, throw in enough of various other aspects [lags, volcanoes, fluctuations, etc] and you can ‘explain’ anything.

September 8, 2018 9:49 pm

on a ‘centennial scale’ the sun has not varied at least the last 300 years.

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 10:02 pm

Leif,

I beg to differ. Please compare average strength of solar cycles in the 18th, 19th and 20th centuries.

September 8, 2018 10:36 pm

It is precisely by doing that that you see that there is no significant difference. E.g. http://www.leif.org/research/Revisiting-the-Sunspot-Number-LWS.pdf

mcswell
September 8, 2018 8:32 am

“UV can penetrate 1,000 meters into the ocean” Do you have a citation for that? Everything I’ve read indicates that UV penetrates water poorly, and salt water even less. At 1000 meters, there’s hardly any light, and what light there is is mostly blue.

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 9:52 am

Mcswell,

Of course UV penetration depends upon the water, whether fresh, salt or dirty, lake, coastal or deep ocean. Here’s the curve for pure water:

http://www.flyonahook.me.uk/images/spectrum.jpg

Naturally, the highest energy UV doesn’t make it to the surface.

It shows UV down to 200 meters, not 1000, but maybe it’s wrong. In some environments, UV only reaches 50 meters (or less), shallower than some colors of visible light.

Editor
September 8, 2018 10:31 am

John, your graph is highly idealized and very approximate. The 350-450 nm wavelengths go much deeper than 200 meters. This is why fish eyes see down to 350 (or lower) nm.

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 2:04 pm

Andy,

The first one isn’t idealized. But it’s for pure water, not seawater. It shows a penetration peak right at the UV/visible boundary.

The second, colored graph shows 600+ feet for UV, without segregating out the relic UVB from near-visible UVA.

Fish which can see in UV vary in this trait. Some use it only in shallow water, rather than oceanic depths.

Molecular analysis of the evolutionary significance of ultraviolet vision in vertebrates

http://www.pnas.org/content/100/14/8308.full

“It should also be noted that many fish have UV vision, but this does not necessarily mean that they use UV vision their entire lives. On the contrary, UV vision in many of them may decline during development. For example, young brown trout (Salmo trutta) has UV vision, but the adults do not use it (37). This change in gene expression is closely related to the change in their habitats: young fish live in shallow water and feed on plankton, where UV light is essential, whereas adults live in deeper water and do not receive much UV light.”

The footnote is to this 1987 reference:

Ultraviolet receptors, tetrachromatic colour vision and retinal mosaics in the brown trout (Salmo trutta): Age-dependent

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0042698987901246

The functionality of UV receptor genes in some sea creatures which spend all or part of their time at depth, such as coelacanth and dolphin, has been lost. With genes, it’s use it or lose it.

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 4:29 pm

Snailfish species found at over 8000 meters in the Marianas Trench has eyes.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2880612/World-s-deepest-fish-Ghostly-snailfish-27-000ft-deep-bottom-Pacific-s-Mariana-Trench.html

Its larvae might however spend time in shallower water, around 1000 meters deep.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudoliparis_swirei

It could be the top predator in its environment, so if there be any UV, visible or IR light around, from whatever source, vision would be a big plus.

Dunno if its eyes work in the adult. Others of its fellow Trench dwellers are blind, like the mucous-filled cusk eel Aphyonus gelatinosus.

Editor
September 8, 2018 9:59 am

mcswell, you sort of answered your own question, the oceans are blue and bluer with depth. The near-UV penetrates very deep as it is next to blue in the spectrum. The shorter the wavelength, the more it is attenuated. Most UVB is gone in the upper 5 meters or so, but the longer UVA wavelengths can penetrate very deep.

Editor
September 8, 2018 10:09 am

mcswell, here is a link. UV starts at around 400 nm.
The graph shows a penetration of 10,000 meters at 400 nm wavelength for a normal ocean. The graph was made by Dr. Jan Zeman.

September 8, 2018 1:48 pm

Andy, you said
“This is the key point, ocean warming or cooling is disproportionately affected by UV. UV can penetrate 1,000 meters into the ocean”
with no links or substantiation. And when you eventually produce one, it says that while 50% of 400 nm light (edge of visible/UV) penetrates to 10 m, only 0.1% penetrates to 100 m. That is less than for visible blue, and diminishes at shorter wavelengths.

Andy May
September 9, 2018 12:55 pm

Sorry Nick I cannot find the info you give in the reference. I only find the graph that says 10,000 meters. You will have to be more specific. That said, different sources give different depths, but near UV penetrates very deep in the right conditions, that is the main point.

September 9, 2018 3:57 pm

Andy,
Here is the graph from this WUWT post that you linked to as support. I have added green lines at 10 m penetration ( he uses comma for decimal pt) and 400 nm. The depth is logarithmic downward on the y-axis. The top red curve is 50% penetration, the bottom blue curve is 0.1% (or as they say, 99.9% attenuation). The bottom shows maximum penetration of about 400 m (not km) in the visible (about 470 nm). Any % level of penetration reaches its maximum in the visible range, showing less penetration at 400 nm, and diminishing rapidly with shorter wavelength.

commieBob
September 8, 2018 4:53 pm

We also have Fleischmann from 1989.

I suppose it’s possible that the occasional single photon of UV makes it to the bottom of the deepest ocean trench but that’s not the usual definition of penetration. 🙂

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 5:08 pm

Bob,

That’s one of the studies upon which UV penetration in shallow coastal water is based. Testing stopped at 25 m. depth in water different in composition from deep, open seawater.

You’re right that such tests rely on many more than a single, highly elusive photon. Exposure of film for varying lengths of time at different depths obviously have to register a lot of photons.

Andy May
September 9, 2018 1:08 pm

Willis, I will let you and Dr. Zeman debate the actual depth of penetration and by all means include Smyth. I’ve seen a number of “maximum” depths in articles. However, the key point is the deepest penetration is in the near UV or between there and blue. In your quote, the author admits using an empirical look up table. I wouldn’t take his depth estimate very seriously. Blue light is detected at 1,000 meters in real life in many areas.

From the National Ocean service: “Sunlight entering the water may travel about 1,000 meters (3,280 feet) into the ocean under the right conditions, but there is rarely any significant light beyond 200 meters (656 feet).” Between 200 m and 1,000 m is called the “twilight zone.” This is a zone with light, but not enough for photosynthesis.

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/light_travel.html

September 9, 2018 4:20 pm

” I will let you and Dr. Zeman debate the actual depth of penetration”
No, you have just mis-read Dr Z’s plot (shown above).

” However, the key point is the deepest penetration is in the near UV or between there and blue. “
No, Dr Z’s plot shows the deepest is at about 470 nm, in the visible (blue).

Andy May
September 10, 2018 4:01 am

Nick, “Maximum” penetration of light estimates are all over the place in the literature. Sorry I misread the graph, I always forget it is common practice in many countries to use commas as decimal points. To make matters worse, he grouped his zeros in threes! It’s a tipoff when the zeros are not in threes, otherwise I assume it is a comma, not a decimal point. Anyway, light has been detected at 1,000 meters by NOAA.

John Tillman
September 9, 2018 4:09 pm

Willis,

This might be a first for you, relying on atmospheric models rather than real data, ie observations of nature.

Also, I’m surprised that a Californian would use British English spelling.

Clyde Spencer
September 8, 2018 2:25 pm

Andy,
Can you provide me with a reference for the absorption of UV in water. I’m fairly certain that clouds are effective at absorbing UV, and I thought that the explanation for why beached whales and dolphins get sunburned, but not while swimming near the surface, was because water was a strong absorber of UV.

Andy May
September 9, 2018 1:09 pm

From the National Ocean service: “Sunlight entering the water may travel about 1,000 meters (3,280 feet) into the ocean under the right conditions, but there is rarely any significant light beyond 200 meters (656 feet).” Between 200 m and 1,000 m is called the “twilight zone.” This is a zone with light, but not enough for photosynthesis.

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/light_travel.html

Editor
September 9, 2018 2:33 pm

Clyde, Wrong UV. The sunburn rays are UVB, we are discussing the near UV or UVA. UV has a very large range (10 nm to 400 nm). The shorter wavelengths don’t penetrate very far, the longer ones do.

Clyde Spencer
September 8, 2018 6:48 pm

Andy,
It appears that UV is absorbed about as well as red and IR:

Andy May
September 10, 2018 4:02 am

Clyde, Not 300-400 nm.

Paul McLellan
September 8, 2018 3:43 am

I’m a semiconductor guy, and we use EUV (14nm wavelength) as the light source in the most advanced processes. But it has to be in a machine in an almost total vacuum, with reflective optics, since everything absorbs EUV. So does EUV even get close enough to the surface to be relevant?

Brooks Hurd
September 8, 2018 7:13 am

Paul,

I believe that ultrapure H2 does not absorb EUV wavelengths. You are correct that the laser/Pb droplet plasma section of the current EUVL tools operates in a high vacuum, however the light path is purged with H2.

I agree with you that EUV wavelengths should be absorbed by atmospheric gases and will not penetrate very far into our atmosphere.

Phil.
September 8, 2018 10:10 am

Solar EUV is absorbed in the atmosphere above 80km.
“The thermosphere of the earth, 80 to 600 km in altitude, is heated predominantly by solar EUV radiation. The EUV photons also ionize the atmosphere creating electrons, which form the ionosphere. Solar EUV irradiance varies by as much as an order of magnitude on time scales of minutes to hours (solar flares), days to months (solar rotation), and years to decades (solar cycle). The highly varying EUV radiation causes the thermosphere and ionosphere to vary over similar magnitudes and time scales.”

Stephen
September 8, 2018 4:04 am

How does the emission spectra change during the cycle? Do the emissions at some wavelengths actually increase from peak to trough? I am wondering about the accumulative changes due to proportional changes of all the different components of the emission spectra.

ferdperple
September 8, 2018 4:06 am

Willis, ask a ham radio operator if there is only a few percentage change in radio propagation due to changes in the atmosphere due to solar cycles.

The differences are enormous which is due to changes in the ionization of the upper atmosphere.

If you believe that climate is only driven by watts per meter squared then this will not seem important.

I expect that as we come to understand clouds we will find that ionization and the solar wind plays a much larger role than currently recognized. That watts per meter squared provide a much too simplistic measure of what is actually happening.

September 8, 2018 6:45 am

You have put this in words much better than I could.
I also have never seen any discussion on the drastic changes in the various atmospheric layers from day to night and how this affects this magical DWIR, etc. In this theoretical climatic science, all theories seem to use averages.

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 11:44 am

Willis,

I seem to recall a WUWT blog post on the effect on weather, if not climate, of the ionosphere following powerful volcanic eruptions, based upon this 2018 paper:

Electrostatic levitation of volcanic ash into the ionosphere and its abrupt effect on climate

Matthew J. Genge1

OTOH, this 2017 paper found that there doesn’t appear to be a GHE in the ionosphere, as previously hypothesized. Rather, changes there appear solely to be caused by variation in solar activity. There’s a big difference between temperature there between high activity and average years during the ~11-year solar cycle.

https://eos.org/research-spotlights/is-there-a-greenhouse-effect-in-the-ionosphere-too-likely-not

Greg
September 8, 2018 4:08 am

Willis, this is somewhat off topic but as you are discussing incoming solar radiation, how does increasing CO2 affect incoming long wave radiation?

Gary Pearse
September 8, 2018 9:17 am

Longwave IR is a very small part of the incoming radiation from the sun. Were it significant, CO2 would already be satiated from it. The effect of increasing CO2 and water vapor would then have a cooling effect, absorbing incoming LWIR and re-emitting half of it back out to space before it could interact with the surface. Nighttime emissions from the surface would also pass uninhibited out through the atmosphere into space and we would have an even colder nighttime than present deserts have.

Gary Pearse
September 8, 2018 9:46 am

Hmmm… this suggests the possibility for a super experiment on CO2 in a desert at night with no wind (or some lateral windbreak setup to keep the air still) and very low humidity. Fill a broad flattish thin clear plastic baloon with helium and 400ppm CO2. Measure the natural LWIR (without the balloon above). Measure it with to obtain a coefficient of the baloon effect. Progressively increase the CO2 amount by increments of 100ppm and take measurements. Try measurements with 300ppm, and 200ppm as well and correct for the 400ppm naturally in the intervening space. Correct for whatever humidity there is. ???

Alan Tomalty
September 8, 2018 11:37 am

In your experiment Are there any clouds?

ferdperple
September 8, 2018 4:35 am

Note: for those not familiar with radio propagation, changes in the sun make the difference between a weak 10 watt signal being received on low cost equipment at 100 miles or 10 thousand miles.

The changes can fluctuate day to day or persist for decades depending on the sun.

ferdperple
September 8, 2018 4:43 am

sunspot-related changes in total solar irradiance
========
Where is the proof that TSI is a complete metric for the solar effects on climate. Perhaps it is like BMI as a metric for health. It tells a story but not a complete story.

mtvessel
September 8, 2018 1:21 pm

if willis has evidence … maybe it would be a good time to bring it out ??

mtvessel
September 9, 2018 1:53 pm

polite request..petulant demand? Semantics mate.

3rd possibility… you paint a picture with broad strokes and add a signature.
When somebody says that picture doesnt have merit you continually ask “which bit?”…and then get busy obsessing about your signature.

So anyway, that all comments need specifically address a specific quote by yourself are the power-divider of your laser like focus.

The info is there -3db

CO2isLife
September 8, 2018 5:02 am

I’m not sure what the top of the atmosphere irradiance chart is showing? Or how it applies to global warming. Incoming radiation isn’t what is important, the radiation that reaches the surface of the earth and warms the oceans is. You can have a hot sun and cloudy skies and the globe will cool. The sun’s irradiance is only half the story. The ocean temperatures are a better proxy for energy reaching the earth’s surface. Many of the wavelengths in the spectrum won’t even make it through the thermosphere, and will never reach earth. CO2’s only contribution to global warming and climate change is to thermalize outgoing LWIR between 13 and 18 microns, that is it, that is the only defined mechanism attributed to CO2. CO2 is transparent to incoming radiation, and LWIR is irrelevant to incoming radiation. How do you tie the incoming radiation to CO2 and outgoing LWIR? How does this apply to CO2?

Tom in Florida
September 8, 2018 7:02 am

I believe that the reason you must measure TSI at the TOA is to determine the amount of solar energy available to start with. The amount of that total reaching the surface can be changed by the atmosphere conditions you mention but it starts with what is available in the first place. It also shows how small the changes in TSI itself are without regard to any other influences.
Of course it is insolation at the surface that counts the most but that is influenced by many different things outside of the Sun’s actual changes in output.

john
September 8, 2018 5:26 am
Alan Tomalty
September 8, 2018 12:00 pm

“Li and his colleagues found that such a large-scale project would generate over four times the amount of electricity as the entire 2017 global energy budget. ”

I would like to see the calculations. Elsewhere it has been calculated that to power all the world’s electricity (which is only 20% of world energy use) you would need a solar farm half the size of Russia.

September 8, 2018 12:10 pm

25,000 square miles

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 12:20 pm

John,

There’s a three order of magnitude error in the article. Nine million sq km is about 100 percent of the Sahara Desert, not 0.1 percent.

Peta of Newark
September 8, 2018 5:33 am

El Sol has a greenhouse gas. A very tenuous layer of ‘stuff’ (high) above its surface.
Not unlike carbonoxide on Earth.
For Sol it’s called the Corona (sphere)
Seemingly for Sol, it’s gas made of stuff like Calcium, Iron and Nickel and it has temperature estimated to be one million degrees centigrade plus and at that kinda temperature, most things will be gaseous.

As per Stefan’s Law and the strictures of the GHGE *and* being conservative, we thus calculate that Sol is emitting 50 million million million Watts per square metre (5E19)

Fantastic. What’s not to like.

But where does the generally accepted figure of 64 MegaWatts come from?
The Corona is between us and Sol’s surface, why do we not see the 5E19 figure.
GHG Theory says we should.

Ah but you say, the Corona is very tenuous, it cannot sustain that output.
In which case, how do the tenuous (including water vapour = 4% maximum concentration) Green Houses Gasses generate the claimed 500 Watts per square metre?

Still with Big Numbers, an essayist here did a post here recently about such things. Middling numbers divided by small numbers creating huuuuuuge numbers.
In order to gain credence and entrance to these Hallowed Halls, they felt duty bound to assert their allegiance to the GHGE and did so by simply stating:
“Deserts are cold at night because there is no water in them to provide a Green House Effect”
OK
But why are not cold during the daytime also?

Steve Reddish
September 8, 2018 8:50 am

I assume you are asking “Why doesn’t heat escape from the surface as rapidly during the day as it does at night?”

It does, but during the day incoming radiation overwhelms outgoing.

SR

R Shearer
September 8, 2018 6:36 am

Thanks. Good piece, interesting and somewhat thought provoking. I have nothing to argue.

I would add that short wavelength UV below 200 nm, often generally referred to as Vacuum Ultraviolet, and which includes Extreme UV at its short wavelength extreme, can break bonds, is ionizing and can excite and strip electrons from molecules like O2, H2O, CO2, etc. It is the excitation of oxygen and bond breakage that leads to ozone formation. With regard to sunlight, people are probably familiar with UVA, UVB and UVC (shortest wavelength of these, about 100-280 nm). It is UVC that is most dangerous to life because of its ability to degrade DNA (kills germs too).

Somewhat analogous to a spark, in that a spark can start a fire – think of the new plasma cigarette lighters, short wavelength UV can initiate numerous high energy reactions and can make the atmosphere electrically conductive to an extent. In the laboratory, one must purge instrumentation operating in VUV to prevent ozone from interfering. I’m not suggesting anything, just rambling. You might have smelled some ozone around a copier machine under heavy usage because it gets formed in this manner by UV. Copiers contain ozone traps or destruction catalysts, but these can be overwhelmed.

CO2isLife
September 8, 2018 6:38 am

This following post helps put these concepts in the context of CO2.

Why CO2 is Irrelevant to the Earth’s Lower Atmosphere; You Can’t Absorb More than 100%
https://co2islife.wordpress.com/2018/09/08/why-co2-is-irrelevant-to-the-earths-lower-atmosphere-you-cant-absorb-more-than-100/

R Shearer
September 8, 2018 7:51 am

Katherine Hayhoe says that up to 123% of global warming is human-caused.

Ill Tempered Klavier
September 8, 2018 11:01 am

…. and the amp on my keyboard goes to eleven. 😉

Alan Tomalty
September 8, 2018 12:28 pm

Where did you get your blackbody calculator?

John Peter
September 8, 2018 6:39 am

Willis, I always read your articles as they are informative and based on the best factual information available.
“Only about half of the sunlight makes it to the surface, so we’re down to 0.14 W/m2 change from peak to trough, less than a twentieth of a percent.” I get it to be around 0.03%
It would seem to me that with this conclusion, you may also have proven that climate changes alarmist propaganda is just that as 400ppm works out at 0.04% (if I get my calculations right). I doubt if a difference of 0.01% is going to make a big difference. So why should a similar percentage of CO2 have a vast influence when a similar increase in sunlight makes not a bit of difference? I am puzzled in the extreme.

Phil.
September 8, 2018 8:59 am

Because the CO2 is a major contributor to the IR absorption of the atmosphere (~10% of surface emissions). Ninety-nine %+ doesn’t contribute at all.

A C Osborn
September 8, 2018 9:34 am

No it is not, Water is.

Phil.
September 8, 2018 6:49 pm

Dr Deanster
September 8, 2018 7:00 am

Willis …. I do not agree with the premise of your approach to assessing the influence of the sun and solar system on earths climate. I’m not saying you are wrong necessarily, but if you to not asssess the situation using the correct approach, you risk a false negative.

More specifically, using your own work as supporting evidence, it is more likely that the influence of the sun on climate has more to do with how the earth system responds to changes in the sun, to include magnetic, solar wind, UV, etc …. such that the amount of TSI reaching the surface and entering the system changes, without the actual value for TSI changing significantly.

Dr. Deanster
September 8, 2018 1:14 pm

“So … where is the “premise” in my approach that you do not agree with?
w.”

The premise of using the 11-year cycle assumes that the climate system is restricted to immediate or near immediate responses to changes in TSI or UV, or Magnetics, etc. My question is, where is it written that a measurable earthly climate response of temperature must be associated with the 11-year cycle?? I would think looking at the data that it most certainly is NOT a function of the 11-year cycle, and in fact your own research supports that position.

As you note in your article “But in fact, it’s less than that. Only about half of the sunlight makes it to the surface, so we’re down to 0.14 W/m2 change from peak to trough, less than a twentieth of a percent.
Now, downwelling radiation at the surface of the earth averages about 500 W/m2 on a 24/7 average basis. And out of that, we’re supposed to believe that a variation on the order of a tenth of a W/m2 is going to make a difference …”

Based on your own work, I think you would agree that the TSI need not change at all, as a change in albedo, clouds, atmospheric absorption, etc are what determines what actually reaches the surface. Further, your work has focused on the near tropical regions, and rightly so, given that that is where the highest levels of solar input would be expected. However, subtropical input also occurs, thus the atmospheric dynamics of clouds, etc, are relevant there as well. Maybe I missed it, but I don’t recall your assessment of daily cloud formation for all regions of the earth. But back to your point, I agree, a change in a twentieth percent of TSI in and of itself will have not any effect on the amount of energy reaching the ocean. Which brings up another aspect of the Climate that is poorly understood, and IMO, is the primary reason MODELS fail miserably. The OCEAN. I would not expect an increase or decrease in energy input into the oceans to show up in any 11 year cycle of temperature. Yet, this does not mean that there was not an increase or decrease in energy input that would appear over a cumulative time. Granted, my response focuses on the ocean, because frankly, I don’t’ think the land portion of the earth is a significant contributor in comparison.

You next say, “As you can see, the variations in the EUV are very small compared to the variations in the visible spectrum.
In fact, the only reason that the percentage variations in EUV are greater than the percentage variations in TSI is that changes in EUV start from almost zero … so even a tiny absolute change in EUV is a large percentage change in EUV.
For those reasons, I hold that looking at EUV to explain surface climate variations is a blind alley … but as always, YMMV …”

I may be wrong, but it seems you are viewing this from a perspective that the EUV would “directly” warm the surface. AND .. I would agree, I wouldn’t expect EUV to directly heat the surface either, at least not over an 11 year period. But as I understand it, EUV is one of those indirect influencers. Baldwin et al, Science, 15 Jun 2007, note that changes in Stratospheric chemistry and circulation may have a profound impact on the “pattern” of climate change. UV and EUV have effects in the Stratosphere. I don’t think we know all the interactions that occur between the Strat and surface, or on clouds and the input of energy to the surface, in particular the OCEAN. Again, the ocean.

The basis of my skepticism regarding your premise of using the 11-year cycle and trying to tease out a temperature signal, is that the ocean is going to mask any impact of short term solar changes on earth’s temperature (e.g. an 11 year cycle). Any impact of the Sun is going to be the result of cumulative impacts that are masked over time, which is going to make it very difficult to tease out the signal. If I had the time, and knew all that you know, I’d be looking at very long term changes … Like the cumulative effects of prolonged maximums and minimums.

Cheers …. (BTW .. I really do like all your post)

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 4:19 pm

Willis,

Earth’s climate system doesn’t just respond to one solar cycle, then switch to reacting only to the next cycle. The effects of each cycle add or subtract from preceding cycles, some of which will be weaker or stronger.

But they tend to come in clumps of higher and lower cycles, making supercycles. When combined with lags, superimposed cycles will damp our the effect of the most recent one, whether more or less powerful than its predecessors.

Here’s an example of an apparently repeating pattern, comparing SC 3-6 with recent solar cycles, for instance:

This shows that strong cycles tend to be followed by similar cycles, until the trend reverses. Also that the 20th century was more active than the 19th or 18th centuries. It doesn’t show the 17th century Maunder Minimum nor the first half of the 18th century:

http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Extremeall.png

Dr Deanster
September 8, 2018 7:47 pm

So …. what is your opinion of this picture? ….
http://www.oism.org/pproject/Slides/Presentation/Slide3.png
I do not see any 11 year fluctuation …. but, to what extent that “presentation” influences the view …. there does seem to be some semblance of a relationship …. on the order of multiple decades. Further, even the lower point around 1970 is still well above the 1880 point ….. thus cumulative effects over a longer period of time.

What I find interesting, is this only seems to apply to the arctic ….. but then, … so called “global warming” is in reality just the global average being influenced by changes in the arctic …. there is little to no warming in other areas aside from those manufactured by mathematical manipulation. Even your own research has shown that cloud systems in the tropics will respond to surface heating to limit incoming solar, thus setting a ceiling on the maximum tropical SST, which rarely if ever goes above 30 C (I think).

Of course the question is …. is this a result of EUVs.? … TSI? I think it mostly has to do with ocean currents pushing warm water into the arctic. But what effect do changes in the sun effect those currents? Since it is for all practical purposes, the arctic that is driving the increase in average global temperature, the effects of an 11 year cycle will be mixed and diluted in the transport of increased energy to the arctic. So, while there may be an 11 year cycle impact for some point, the energy dissipates into the system, and the changes are so slow that I wouldn’t think you’d see an effect on an 11 year time frame. But a cumulative effect over a period of 1880 to 2000 …. maybe so, as shown in the picture above.

September 8, 2018 7:16 am

deleted

September 8, 2018 7:55 am

I too tend to see W/m^2 as too small of an analytical aperture to allow the best insight on how solar variations can affect Earth’s climate.

There’s more to life than W/m^2.

I don’t have my act together to argue the specifics, but I hope to get there eventually.

September 8, 2018 7:57 am

I don’t believe TSI is the key. It is something else that changes at the same time TSI changes. Maybe it is cosmic rays, we’ll see over the coming cycle as cycle 25 is now forecast to be as weak as 24 was. Last time we had two weak cycles in a row we did get significant climate cooling.

john
September 8, 2018 8:08 am

Willis, I know you love fishing. Here is an image from space clearly showing sediment plumes at an offshore wind farm.

This can’t be good for marine life…

Theyouk
September 8, 2018 9:50 am

Ignorant question here: What causes the sediment plumes? Agitation to the base of the turbine mount (from rotation-induced vibrations)? Or is it a byproduct of mounting these things in a zone of sea current, where disturbing the sea floor to create the base enables temporary plumes? Or something else?

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 10:02 am
john
September 8, 2018 11:48 am

I used this image of wind wake turbulence in an article I penned some time ago:

http://dailybail.com/home/why-wind-power-wont-work.html

Tidal/ocean currents have the same effect on the platforms they use on the sea bed.

September 8, 2018 11:37 am

You forgot about cows Willis, they like the water pumped by windmills.
?776501

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 12:07 pm

DD,

I’m pretty sure that you knew Willis was referring to electric power turbines, not water-pumping windmills.

September 8, 2018 12:14 pm

John, unlike you, I cannot read Willis’ mind, but he did say “windmill” and not “wind turbine.” (but then, you know how he demands direct quotes)

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 12:25 pm

DD,

That’s common usage. Wind-powered stock tank pumps aren’t technically mills, either.

From the context, it was obvious to what he referred, so no mind reading required. Just reading what came before his comment, which arose in the context of a discussion of wind turbine farms at sea. Did you really not read the comment to which Willis responded?

September 8, 2018 12:36 pm

They don’t have “windmill farms” at sea Jonny-boi. So no, it was not obvious because the common term for what they install on wind farms (on or off shore) are wind turbines. Even you made this distinction in your first reply to me. ” electric power turbines , not water-pumping windmills.” (your words)

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 12:41 pm

DD,

You’re wasting your own and everyone else’s time.

It was obvious to anyone with a room temperature IQ that Willis was referring to wind turbines, since marine wind farms were the topic. Willis clearly referred to those on land as well, which massacre birds and bats in their tens of millions, at least.

And, as noted, wind-powered pumps aren’t “windmills”, either. They don’t grind grain.

September 8, 2018 12:48 pm

Wait a minute there John, you called them ” water-pumping windmills” …….if they aren’t “windmills” why did you call them that?

LOL……..had to edit it hugh?…..too funny !!!

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 2:10 pm

DD,

Why is it so hard for you to understand that “windmill” has become a generic term, so that your attack on Willis is meaningless and without merit.

Its original meaning was for grinding grain, but has come to be extended to any other use of wind power, whether pumping water or generating electricity.

That the company uses the term just means that the word has long since become standard in English, yet away from its original meaning.

I doubt that you’re really so dense as not to understand this, so must conclude that you’re just trolling, having nothing better to do.

September 8, 2018 2:26 pm

Willis said “windmill”, he did not say “wind turbine.” More to the point, irrespective of what you call them Willis said: ” to be good for any life.” Now, I don’t give a hoot what you call them the word ANY in Willis’ post is wrong, because as you can see from the picture the COWS love them.

September 8, 2018 2:27 pm

Obviously John you seem to lack even a tidbit of a sense of humor, and mistake a “joke” for “trolling”.
.
.

John Tillman
September 8, 2018 2:36 pm

The trolling is your continuing to make an issue of “windmill”, which is a standard English word long applied not just to actual mills, but to wind-powered pumps and now turbines. The first American “windmill” pump was so-called in 1854.

I live in the largest concentration of wind farms in the world, and we call the monstrosities “windmills”. To include those responsible for perpetrating the scam, which has made my friends and family rich off the federal subsidies.

My sense of humor requires that an attempted joke be funny to be humorous.

September 8, 2018 2:45 pm

Your issue is with Willis, not me. He’s the one that said “windmill.” Go argue with him.

September 8, 2018 2:46 pm

Oh, and by the way, look at the picture, the cows LOVE the windmill

September 9, 2018 7:29 am

Surely you have been making comments on “climate” sites long enough to know that using the term “windmill” when referring to wind turbines is going to be called out or treated like “troll bait.”

September 8, 2018 12:54 pm

FYI John, look at the name of the company that makes those things: https://aermotorwindmill.com/
..
Funny how “windmill” is in the company’s name

Sam C Cogar
September 8, 2018 8:17 am

Excerpted from above article, to wit:

From peak to trough over the sunspot cycle, the top-of-atmosphere total solar irradiance varies by about 1.2 watts per square metre (W/m2) … which, when averaged over the entire surface of the earth gives a change of about 0.28 W/m2. This is less than a tenth of one percent variation in total incoming energy.

To correctly measure the above stated “variance” in solar irradiance from peak to trough over the sunspot cycle, …… all said measurements must be made at a “point location” at the TOA that is situate at 90° perpendicular between the center of the earth and the center of the Sun.

And constant adjustments to the aforesaid “point location” measurements have to be made simply because of the “change-in-distance” between the earth and the Sun due to the earth’s elliptical orbital movement.

Anyway, why in the world would anyone want to measure the variance in solar irradiance at a “zenith point location” at the TOA ……… and then “average that “measurement” over the entire surface of the earth?

One half (1/2) the surface of the earth is always in darkness (no solar irradiance) ……. and any variance in solar irradiance that is measured at the TOA between the Tropic of Cancer and Tropic of Capricorn has very little to no effect whatsoever on surface temperatures at higher latitudes and/or altitudes.