California has seen a range of natural extremes this summer, from heat waves to wildfires. The state can now add to the list record-warm ocean temperatures. On August 1, 2018, researchers from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography observed water temperatures of 25.9 degrees Celsius (78.6 degrees Fahrenheit) along the coast at La Jolla, exceeding the previous record of 25.8°C (78.4°F) set in 1931.
The warm water stretched far beyond La Jolla. The map above shows sea surface temperature anomalies on August 2, 2018, as compiled by NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch, which blends observations from the Suomi NPP, MTSAT, Meteosat, and GOES satellites and computer models. Mapping the temperature anomaly allows you to see how much the surface layer was above or below the long-term average temperature for this time of year. The warmest sea surface temperatures (red) extend from Point Conception to the Baja California coast. According to Bill Patzert, retired NASA climatologist, temperatures along this part of the coastline were 5-10°F above normal.
“The primary driver of these warm ocean temperatures is the persistence of continental atmospheric high pressure that has dominated western weather,” Patzert said. He explained that normally, high pressure over the eastern Pacific Ocean drives winds from the north along the California coast. These winds push coastal surface waters offshore, allowing cool waters from below to “upwell” to the surface and keep coastal California cool.
This summer, however, a dome of high pressure over the continental west has dominated, causing coastal winds to blow from the south. This pattern has sustained a cap of warm ocean waters from San Diego to Santa Barbara, preventing cool water from rising up.
Warm water for beachgoers and for nearshore ecosystems is not the only consequence of the high-pressure system. “This pattern is also driving the month-long heat wave suffocating California and it is a major cause of the explosion of Western wildfires,” Patzert said. “The continuing Western drought, July heat waves, explosive fire season, and balmy ocean temperatures are all related.”
However, what you don’t see is the bigger picture, with cooler than normal SST’s just to the north
I only wish it had been so warm when I was a kid surfing all those California beaches — I was skinny and the cold water, even in summer, often had me so chilled I had to head in and warm up in the sun on the beach — with all those pretty California Girls……
“California dreamin, on such a winter’s day”. And, “All the leaves are brown, leaves are brown, and the sky is grey”……Leaves were brown due to insufficient co2.
How many measurements at how many locations were made in 1931? It is often easy to break previous “record” measurements by just sampling more intensively over a wider region. Seek and ye shall often find. An unsuspecting audience may never be told just how hard someone looked for the new “record”.
Same location.
Here is a clue. the world is getting warmer. There WAS AN LIA
1. Borehole measurements tell us this
2. reduction in glaciers tell us this
3. Rising sea levels tell us this
4. Changing blossoming time tell us this
5. Changing plant ranges tell us this
6. Changing ice out dates tell us these.
and yes
7 Temperature records tell us this
The warming is not uniform. Not spatially uniform, not temporally uniform,
so in 1-7 you will always be able to pick a cool cherry. But generally all signs
point to WARMING SINCE THE LIA, not cooling.
Such that if you pick a random location that was measured in, say 1900, chances are that location will be warmer today than it was in 1900 or 1850 or 1700.
Since the world is generally warming you will, you must see new records set. Even at places where the measurements were shitty. In a warming world expect more records .
will everyplace set a record? NOPE. but in general or on average all places wil get warmer.
Some will warm more, some will warm less.
If you want to mak a SMART argument you might want to talk about the CAUSE of the warming. But attacking new records will not last as a tactic.
I am aware of those points, though if my mathematics was stronger I suspect a better argument could be made based on Niquist sampling theory. Certainly others have done so.
However, that was not really my main point. I have never disputed that the world has probably warmed. It is simply an issue of trust, and the ease of faking records, and some of the means by which it can be done. Especially when the reader may not be aware of, or have access to, all the measurements. Most of the people making claims of new records lost my trust some years ago.
For instance, in the UK we tend to be regaled with temperature records from the Met Office at Heathrow Airport. I have never heard either the BBC or a Met Office spokesman mention all the extra runways, tarmac, and aircraft that has been added to the location over the years, and that this might effect temperature records.
Never. Not once.
Since you brought up the subject of SMART arguments, I’ll mention a few you seem to have conveniently overlooked, but are probably well aware of.
The global mean temperature is disproportionately affected by large increases in Polar, winter, and night time temperatures. But most people will never experience, never mind care about, Arctic temperatures that rise from, say, -40 Celsius to -20 Celsius, or even if their local winter and/or night time temperatures rise modestly. The highest temperatures being the ones that show the smallest or non existent increases is politically problematic for people who appear make a living out of global warming. Alarmist politicians, activists, and media want dramatic recent increases in LOCAL maximum temperatures. And by golly, they’ve got a lot of ways to get what they want without significantly distorting a global mean.
The CAUSE of the warming is the nut of it, right? No doubt some is agw, some is natural variation. The IPCC statement that almost all of it is agw is not proven and contradicts their own evidence. Statements here and elsewhere that the temperature record has been erroneously adjusted are not proven either. I’ve read the arguments supporting adjustment and those defending the adjustments, and I’m not smart enough to make up my own mind. The arguments are statistical in nature and I’m not very good with statistics.
So neither proposition is proven, in my mind. What I’m left with is that the world continues to warm and we’re not sure why or what the relative contributions are.
I read this stuff every day and I’m comfortable with uncertainty.
“WARMING SINCE THE LIA”
Isn’t that, uh, fairly predictable?
Lucky people with warmer water. When it gets up to 30 that is the time to go swimming in comfort – no need to wear wet suits.
A hurricane off the coast of California causes strong convection on the continent.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/rb-animated.gif
Is this just the start of another warm blob. Just like the one that was off the coast of Washington a few years ago. If yes it might make El Nino/ La Nina cycles more interesting.
The “Warm Blob” of a few years ago was caused by a persistent high-pressure system sitting off the California coast.
At one time it was speculated that the Warm Blob was being caused by underwater volcanic activity, but it was finally determined that the hot water only went down a few meters in depth so volcanic activity was ruled out.
If a high-pressure system just sits over one spot, the area underneath it will get hotter and hotter as long as it sits there, and it works this way over land and water.
SSTs are evanescent. Easy come, easy go.
a huuuuge point one of a degree
shock horror!
and not since the 30s?
hmmm
tsk tsk
naff all suvs and industry( as now) back then either
So warming is not warming. Records are not records. Sounds like a good way to sleep better without looking at the global situation.
California just isn’t irtue signaling nearly hard enough. Maybe they should outlaw vehicles and air conditioners.
How is normal determined?
“However, what you don’t see is the bigger picture, with cooler than normal SST’s just to the north” And? What does this mean for CA temps, precipitation and wildfire?