Wacky claim: Planet now at risk of heading toward ‘hothouse Earth’ state

From the Stockholm Resilience Center and the mind of Hans Joachim Schellnhuber comes this nutball press release.

Keeping global warming to within 1.5-2 degrees C may be more difficult than previously assessed, according to researchers. An international team of scientists has published a study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) showing that even if the carbon emission reductions called for in the Paris Agreement are met, there is a risk of Earth entering what the scientists call “Hothouse Earth” conditions.

“Human emissions of greenhouse gas are not the sole determinant of temperature on Earth. Our study suggests that human-induced of 2 degrees C may trigger other Earth system processes, often called feedbacks, that can drive further warming—even if we stop emitting ,” says lead author Will Steffen from the Australian National University and Stockholm Resilience Centre. “Avoiding this scenario requires a redirection of human actions from exploitation to stewardship of the Earth system.”

Currently, global average temperatures are just over 1 degrees C above pre-industrial and rising at 0.17 degrees C per decade.

The authors of the study consider 10 natural feedback processes, some of which are “tipping elements” that lead to abrupt change if a critical threshold is crossed. These feedbacks could turn from being beneficial, by storing carbon, to a source of uncontrollable emission in a warmer world. These feedbacks are permafrost thaw, loss of methane hydrates from the ocean floor, weakening land and ocean carbon sinks, increasing bacterial respiration in the oceans, Amazon rainforest dieback, boreal forest dieback, reduction of northern hemisphere snow cover, loss of Arctic summer sea ice, and reduction of Antarctic sea ice and polar ice sheets.

Global map of potential tipping cascades. The individual tipping elements are color-coded according to estimated thresholds in global average surface temperature (tipping points; 18,43). Arrows show the potential interactions among the tipping elements, based on expert elicitation, which could generate cascades. Note that although the risk for tipping (loss of) the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is proposed at >5 degrees Celsius, some marine-based sectors in East Antarctica may be vulnerable at lower temperatures.

“These tipping elements can potentially act like a row of dominoes. Once one is pushed over, it pushes Earth toward another. It may be very difficult or impossible to stop the whole row of dominoes from tumbling over. Places on Earth will become uninhabitable if ‘Hothouse Earth’ becomes the reality,” adds co-author Johan Rockström, executive director of the Stockholm Resilience Centre and incoming co-director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, says, “We show how industrial-age greenhouse gas emissions force our climate, and ultimately the Earth system, out of balance. In particular, we address tipping elements in the planetary machinery that might, once a certain stress level has been passed, one by one change fundamentally, rapidly, and perhaps irreversibly. This cascade of events may tip the entire Earth system into a new mode of operation.”

“What we do not know yet is whether the climate system can be safely ‘parked’ near 2 degrees C above preindustrial levels, as the Paris Agreement envisages. Or if it will, once pushed so far, slip down the slope towards a hothouse planet. Research must assess this risk as soon as possible.”

Cutting greenhouse gases is not enough

Maximizing the chances of avoiding a “Hothouse Earth” requires not only reduction of carbon dioxide and other , but also enhancement and/or creation of new biological carbon stores, for example, through improved forest, agricultural and soil management; biodiversity conservation; and technologies that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and store it underground, the paper says. Critically, the study emphasizes that these measures must be underpinned by fundamental societal changes that are required to maintain a “Stabilized Earth” where temperatures are ~2 degrees C warmer than the pre-industrial era.

“Climate and other global changes show us that we humans are impacting the Earth system at the global level. This means that we as a global community can also manage our relationship with the system to influence future planetary conditions. This study identifies some of the levers that can be used to do so,” concludes co-author, Katherine Richardson from the University of Copenhagen.


“… the climate system can be safely ‘parked’ near 2 degrees C above preindustrial levels”

What a load of BS, especially since we’ve been told all sorts of terrible consequences will occur at 2C and it is “officially unsafe“. Now apparently it’s “safe”. Got that folks? The climate pays attention to our history and the whims of the Schellnhuber pronouncements.

Note to my Internet stalker “Sou” aka Miriam O’Brien: I know you’ll want to jump all over this, please, be my guest. Make my day.

Of course they don’t bother to give a link to the paper in PNAS, and given the absurdity of the press release, I’m not going to bother looking for it. It’s not worth reading.

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Sunsettommy

Here is the LINK to the PNAS paper.

Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115

The abstract is politically charged.

frankclimate

In case some user is interested in the full: https://workupload.com/file/rKyCzu9

dennisambler

The authors include Will Steffen, Johan Rockström, Katherine Richardson, Timothy M. Lenton, Diana Liverman and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber. They have published together variously on this theme for some time, common to all is Schellnhuber and his Potsdam Institute. The list is not exhaustive. Rockström is now taking over as Co-Director of Potsdam with Ottmar {Climate Change is now Wealth Distribution] Edenhofer.

February 2005
Breaking News – Only huge emissions cuts will curb climate change
https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn6964-only-huge-emissions-cuts-will-curb-climate-change/
“To have half a chance of curbing global warming to within safe levels, the world’s greenhouse gas emissions need to fall dramatically to between 30% and 50% of 1990 levels by 2050, a new study suggests.” This was actually Meinshausen, who then joined Potsdam in 2006. Formerly worked for Greenpeace and WWF as a “consultant”, has been the Director of the Australian-German College [Potsdam] at The University of Melbourne since 2012

February 2008
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18258748
Lenton TM, Held H, Kriegler E, Hall JW, Lucht W, Rahmstorf S, Schellnhuber HJ.

“Here we introduce the term “tipping element” to describe large-scale components of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point. We critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system under anthropogenic forcing, drawing on the pertinent literature and a recent international workshop to compile a short list, and we assess where their tipping points lie. An expert elicitation is used to help rank their sensitivity to global warming and the uncertainty about the underlying physical mechanisms”.

March 2009 Pre-Copenhagen
https://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/files/synthesis-report-web.pdf
Rapid, sustained, and effective mitigation based on coordinated global and regional action is required to avoid “dangerous climate change” regardless of how it is defined.

Weaker targets for 2020 increase the risk of serious impacts, including the crossing of tipping points, and make the task of meeting 2050 targets more difficult and costly.

Authors include: Katherine Richardson, Will Steffen, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Diana Liverman

April 2009
Climate chaos predicted by CO2 study
“If we continue burning fossil fuels as we do, we will have exhausted the carbon budget in merely 20 years, and global warming will go well beyond 2C,” said Malte Meinshausen of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, who led the study, published in Nature.

More pre-Copenhagen – September 2009
A safe operating space for humanity
https://www.nature.com/articles/461472a#author-information
Authors include:
Rockström, Johan
Steffen, Will
Lenton, Timothy M.
Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
Hansen, James
Liverman, Diana
Richardson, Katherine

Anthropogenic climate change is now beyond dispute, and in the run-up to the climate negotiations in Copenhagen this December, the international discussions on targets for climate mitigation have intensified. There is a growing convergence towards a ‘2 °C guardrail’ approach, that is, containing the rise in global mean temperature to no more than 2 °C above the pre-industrial level.

Now Only Two Years Left
July 2017 – “Three years to safeguard our climate”
http://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/research-news/2017-07-02-three-years-to-safeguard-our-climate.html

Johan Rockström, Christiana Figueres, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Gail Whiteman, Anthony Hobley and Stefan Rahmstorf

They will never give up as long as the funding is there.

hunter

They are a dearh cukt like Pol Pot’s Khmer Rouge ir Jonestown’s Jim Jines.
Only much more dangerous since they are lustened to by Popes and Presidents.

hunter

Yet there is no such thing as the “Anthropocene”, according to geologists who are in charge of naming geological periods.

Theo

“Fundamental societal changes.”

Natch!

Rich Davis

Once we have built world socialism, the problem disappears.

Dr Deanster

Yep, we will never hear about climate change again after they force the world back into a feudal system where they enjoy a life of luxury while everyone else lives in abject poverty.

Theo

Feudamental change!

J Mac

I’d give you a +10, if I could, Theo!

Dan Evans

Yes, but they won’t need that many slaves, humans are inefficient and obsolete

Rich Davis

Who says they’re keeping us? Skeptics will be the first cohort of worthless eaters.

M E

Plague will carry off a lot of people. Drought and plague go together.

Robert W. Turner

Still need enough for diversity in the gene pool, and they give that number right on the Georgia guidestones. Something like 10% of today’s population.

Sylvia

And keep all the fossil fuels for themselves!

RyanS

Socialists want feudalism?

Rich Davis

Shockingly, you miss the point Ryan. The Soviets called their regime the workers’ paradise, but it was anything but that. The party apparatchiki were functionally the lords of the manor. The proletariat were the peasants. But since it was mandated to address each other as comrade, rather than to acknowledge the reality that the party had absolute power exceeding the tsar, you want us to think that the analogy to feudalism is absurd. Or have I misrepresented your view?

Ed Zuiderwijk

Yeah. All cities will become like Leipzig, 1989, the most polluted city in the east block.

Alan the Brit

Rather an alarming prospect considering the great success of that filthy oil-rich state Venezuala, that can’t put food on the supermarket shelves despite being resource rich!

wsbriggs

Note that watching “Hunger Games” gives you a true example of the elite mindset. I found the films engrossing, but the message was a lot different than what they thought they were pitching when they wrote the scripts.

JohnWho

“… there is a risk of Earth entering what the scientists call “Hothouse Earth” conditions.”

Just like it has happened many times before, right?

Theo

The last Hothouse Earth episode lasted from the Cretaceous Period through the first two epochs of the Paleogene Period. Life was good. Animals, plants and fungi large and thriving. Except for that unfortunate celestial event at the end of the Cretaceous.

Or fortunate if you’re a mammal.

rocketscientist

And…interestingly during none of those instances did the temperature “run-away”. Well, if it did it didn’t run too far because it seems to have run off in the other direction until it found its way back 🙂

Runaway arises when they try and explain Venus within the misappropriated contexts of feedback and amplification.

If Venus is runaway anything, it’s runaway cloud coverage. Its clouds are thermally disconnected from the surface, unlike Earth clouds via the water cycle. As a result, Venusian clouds are in an independent thermal equilibrium with the Sun and once a temperature is established for the cloud top, the temperature at the bottom of the atmosphere at 90 bar is dictated primarily by pressure and not the GHG effect. Of course, the GHG effect is still present between the Venusian cloud tops and space.

Richard Patton

I did some simple number crunching a few years with Charles and Boyles laws and discovered that if Earth’s SLP was the same as Venus’s surface pressure we would be only about 40deg F cooler than Venus. That 40deg can be accounted for solely by its proximity to the sun. I.e. the CO2 on Venus has nothing to do with its temperature, and there is no danger of runaway heat on earth.

I notice the warmistas deliberately suppress the information that for over 70% of the history of the earth the mean temperature of the Earth was over 80F (27C)-16deg C above the current mean!! If life wasn’t ended by the heat then it won’t be ended by a measly 2 deg C change now!

old construction worker

‘over 70% of the history of the earth the mean temperature of the Earth was over 80F’ If you don’t count temperatures during ices ages.

Red94ViperRT10

No, even the Ice Age temperatures count. Has only taken up the last 1 million to 2.3 million years (depending on whose research you check), with an interstadial thrown in every hundred thousand years or so for the last million years. And the age of the Earth is how many billion years? So, yeah, 70% of the time on this old Earth has been smokin’ hot!

Robert W. Turner

And they attempt to explain away disconnects with paleo temperature change and CO2 concentrations on Earth by invoking the conveniently dynamic faint sun hypothesis. It’s just ignored that the faint sun hypothesis is paradoxical to empirical data, and is also contradicted by independent studies from several disciplines.

richard verney

There is also a problem with Mars.

It is thought that Mars had running water many billions of years ago, but this was when the feint sun is said to exist.

If the feint sun causes problems explaining then past climate of planet Earth, just think about how these problems are exacerbated when considering the early evolution of Mars.

Pat Frank

The sun always feints when it’s going for the hoop.

The sun was faint when it was young. 🙂

commieBob

That’s why they had to get rid of the Medieval Warm Period, the Roman Warm Period, the Minoan Warm Period, and the Holocene Climatic Optimum. During the present interglacial the temperature has been warmer than now during ten warm periods. link We haven’t seen evidence of any tipping points. The projected temperature increase keeps shrinking. The chances are that we’re not going to see temperatures we haven’t already seen. The probabilities of a tipping point are around the same as the probabilities that my cat repels dragons.

But Bob, we are living in a new era, the Adjustocene. We are just imagining that we read about those Periods. What we have to do now is show proper horror at the new temperature regime. And if the dear leaders don’t think we are showing the proper emotion towards ‘ climate change’, well it’s a stadium full of people and a few antiaircraft bullets to the head for you.
Welcome to the new Orwellian world.

Pat Frnak

How many dragons have you seen around your house, cB?

commieBob

There are zero dragons in the neighborhood and zero maidens have been devoured since we started keeping a cat.

Red94ViperRT10

See there, it works!

Gary Ashe

Unprecedented sorry.

”Just like it has happened many times before, right?”

tty

“Just like it has happened many times before, right?”

Extremely unlikely to happen irrespective of CO2 level. The last hothouse ended when Antarctica became thermally isolated and the oceans changed to icehouse conditions (=high latitude deep water production). It won’t return until Antarctica moves away from the Pole, or a continent or island chain interrupts the circumpolar circulation.

Alan Tomalty

Anthony, Was it you that said the current temp was rising at the rate of 0.17C per decade? if so was that based on UAH for July 2018?

Herbert

Anthony,
I had the same question as Alan Tomalty.
What are the decadal increases in temperature asserted by-
NASA GISS,
Hadcru,
RSS,
UAH?
And what do the Sea Temperature records indicate as the decadal increase?
I thought Karl’s “ pause buster” paper was asserting 0.11 degrees C per decade against a lower Argo buoys recording.

TonyL

UAH Latest and Greatest is +0.128 C/decade. That’s TLT, of course.

A Shout Out to Roy Spencer and team for updating the data sets so quickly this month.

Richard Barraclough

No WUWT article on the UAH temperature for July ??

“… may trigger other Earth system processes, often called feedbacks …”

Apparently he doesn’t realize that the wildly inflated effect claimed to arise from CO2 emissions already requires an absurdly large and physics defying amount of feedback.

Randy Stubbings

And nothing other than human-produced CO2 can trigger all these feedbacks???

RyanS

“trigger”

Get it? Anything can be a trigger.

Sylvia

We need a CO2 safe space.

Menicholas

Where are my crayons and kittens?

Pop Piasa

All I need is a CO2 Fire Extinguisher to afford a safe space when the need arises. Plus, it’s a great way to chill my beer. 😉

Pop Piasa

Triggered?
comment image

Avoiding this scenario requires a redirection of human actions from exploitation to stewardship of the Earth system.

What the international team of … “scientists” … mean to say is, “Avoiding this scenario requires elimination of human actions from existence altogether, thus acting as good stewards of the Mother Earth system.”

Homicide on a mass scale is just good for the planet. Every time we hear of a mass shooting, therefore, we should be thankful that some lone gunman has acted in the interests of Mother Earth. Likewise, every war is a blessing. Drunk driving is of great value in reducing human numbers.

The more killin’, the better. Starve out the poor. Impose “carbon taxes” so high that Chinese and others in the … “hottest heatwaves ever” .. cannot afford to pay for energy to run their air conditioners. Stop raising livestock in China, despite massive increased demand for meat — Jus’ keep ’em eatin’ rice and those other viddals ov’ ‘air, while those of us in ALREADY developed nations slurp down our steaks and drive our SUVs and stuff. We were here first, so other countries be damned.

More killin’, less grillin’. Off to make the T-shirt now.

Sylvia

It’s quite disturbing reading the Guardian. It’s funny how a lot of commenters, who call for massive reduction in human numbers, never seem to include themselves or their loved ones in the ‘cull’. They seem to think it will be the ‘bad’ people, like conservatives, who should go. True evil, everyday, in the Guardian.

bonbon

Dr. “John” Schellnhuber got his CBE personally from the Queen in 2004 at the Berlin Embassy, for exactly that- getting rid of 5 billion people. The Guardian pales to farce beside such high crimes.

Richard Patton

Not Conservatives, it is all the have-nots of the world they want to eliminate, because if they join the haves the world will die!! (racism by any other name is still racism)

beng135

Avoiding this scenario requires a redirection of human actions from exploitation to stewardship of the Earth system.

Sounds like nonsense put out by a post-modern generator:
http://www.elsewhere.org/pomo/

rocketscientist

How badly had the “Hot House Earth” run away the last time it was 6 °C warmer?
Seems it didn’t run away too far or too long because Earth is obviously at a lower temperature now than then.

Percy Jackson

Perhaps you should read the paper. It states that:

“After peak warming, transient changes in alkalinity balance following the dissolution of deep-sea carbonates (on about a 10,000-year timescale) and silicate weathering (on about a 100,000-year timescale) would eventually reduce the global mean surface temperature back to pre-industrial levels”

Robert W. Turner

So in other words these C-rate science activists think that those two slow variables are the only feedbacks in the system, and a change of a few tenths ppt CO2 will overwhelm sea floor spreading rate, geographic arrangement of ocean basins and continents, as well as orbital forcing?

hunter

There is no evidence that warmer temps will cause dissokution of carbonates.

T. Wiita

Excellent points, Anthony. I think you mean Stockholm Resilience Center, not Copenhagen.

Hivemind

Did you mean, as in “Stockholm Syndrome”?

Bruce Cobb

Speaking of dominoes, the whole CAGW edifice is like a house of cards; take one out of the bottom, and it all collapses in on itself.

RyanS

I think you’re referring to civilisation there Bruce.

MarkW

Civilization is quite robust.
Unlike climate science.

RyanS

Are you trolling me or feeding me?

Gary Ashe

He is beating you over the head with a fact-mallet.

You are too low input to notice.

RyanS

Didn’t notice any facts in his post, what were they? Oh I see, you don’t know the difference between facts and opinions.

ResourceGuy

Summer and seasonal heatwaves are a crisis that “you never want to go to waste”, just like winter polar vortex, and floods, and droughts. It’s Rahm Emanuel Climate Science by design.

M__ S__

Haven’t any of these guys ever been told the story of the boy who cried wolf, or chicken little?

How many bad predictions can a group get away with?

rocketscientist

They weren’t paying attention then either.

Gary Ashe

It’s 2019 funding season, combined with sunshine in it.

steveta

“In the context of the summer of 2018, this is definitely not a case of crying wolf, raising a false alarm: the wolves are now in sight,” said Dr Phil Williamson, a climate researcher at the University of East Anglia.

hunter

Look at itger religions and their false contrived claims.
Humans have a huge appetite for scary stories.

beng135

told the story of the boy who cried wolf

Thing is nowadays, insane as it is, you can get paid handsomely for crying wolf, if you cry it loud & often enough.

ren

In a few days high from the south will cause very low minimum temperatures in Australia.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/08/10/2100Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-231.62,-26.85,1137/loc=119.451,-31.735

Philip Mulholland

ren
Also have a look at windy.com where you can choose a local forecast.

https://www.windy.com/-31.953/115.860?rain,2018-08-10-12,-38.135,136.802,4,i:pressure,m:cLTajoh

Jack Miller

Thanks Philip for the windy.com link, I hadn’t seen this one before.

Tom Abbott

Here’s a good radar website for North America:

http://content.wdtinc.com/clients/koln/map2.php?MAPID=14116

ren

“Brief Introduction to Stratospheric Intrusions
Stratospheric Intrusions are when stratospheric air dynamically decends into the troposphere and may reach the surface, bringing with it high concentrations of ozone which may be harmful to some people. Stratospheric Intrusions are identified by very low tropopause heights, low heights of the 2 potential vorticity unit (PVU) surface, very low relative and specific humidity concentrations, and high concentrations of ozone. Stratospheric Intrusions commonly follow strong cold fronts and can extend across multiple states. In satellite imagery, Stratospheric Intrusions are identified by very low moisture levels in the water vapor channels (6.2, 6.5, and 6.9 micron). Along with the dry air, Stratospheric Intrusions bring high amounts of ozone into the tropospheric column and possibly near the surface. This may be harmful to some people with breathing impairments. Stratospheric Intrusions are more common in the winter/spring months and are more frequent during La Nina periods. Frequent or sustained occurances of Stratospheric Intrusions may decrease the air quality enough to exceed EPA guidelines.”
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_int/

Fred250

“very low minimum temperatures in Australia”

Thanks ren… not !

I much prefer summer, y’know !!

RyanS

It’s a high ren, we get one every week or two. This one will bring a cool snap, but nothing unusual – certainly nowhere near record. Its called weather, what’s your point?

MarkW

Now that’s funny. Just a few days ago you and your fellows were proclaiming how a heat wave is proof of global warming.
Now cool waves are just warming.
Typical hypocrisy that we have come to expect.

Sylvia

They also don’t understand the fundamental difference in the climate/’weather argument. Observations of hot weather constitute ‘white swan’ events. Given that we are supposed to be warming, aren’t more extreme cold weather events more akin to a ‘black swan’ event. Or is my reasoning wrong?

_Jim

Dominoes?

Keep in mind T^4.

PaulH

The “Copenhagen Resilience Center”? Don’t they make those expensive mattresses? 😉

Ed Zuiderwijk

I think they must be talking about the Tivoli. I once spent a pleasurable day there which improved my resilience no end. Forgot against what.

Jackson Ireland

I just read about this on the bbc and found none of it new, informative or helpful. It seams they’re trotting this out because of the heatwaves.

MarkW

How many seams does a heat wave have?

Hivemind

Don’t forget your /pedantic nazi tag.

beng135

Don’t remove that tag — under penalty of law. 😉

R Taylor

And despite the non-stop hysteria, the BBC still can’t risk allowing comments.

Jackson Ireland

Oh it has comments now and they are insufferable. The same tired “were overpopulated” argument repeated over and over again

Dave Nunn

The BBC article
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-45084144
acknowledges there are sceptical views in ONE sententence then goes on to list a bunch of alarmists’ quotes.

ЯΞ√ΩLUT↑☼N

Our study suggests..

In other words, they don’t have a clue and it’s another “study” to keep the crime going and the money coming in.

Erik Pedersen

Alarmism at its worst… Global temperatures and atmospheric CO2 _are relatively low now, was some 6 deg C higher 9000 years ago..

Ron Long

HotHouse earth, huh? I think I will keep a cold beer at the tipping point, and occasionally over-tip it.

Latitude

there’s no such thing as run away global warming….

The question they can’t answer is why does it stop and go the other way

John Mason

“Maintain a ‘Stabilized Earth'”

yep – till where I’m sitting here in Indiana is back to it’s more normal climate state of being under 1 mile of ice.

These people really are clueless and believe their silly pontifications.

Doc Chuck

“Maintaining a stabilized Earth” you must understand may require something similar to the ‘normalization of the situation’ as was comrade Brezhnev’s characterization of Soviet tanks rolling into insubordinate Czechoslovakia in 1968, which KGB defector Yuri Besmenov clearly explained over 3 decades ago along with so much else of his own former participation in concerted efforts to gradually undermine the west at:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0wakec06NlA .

Wiliam Haas

The previous interglacial period, the Eemian, was warmer than this one with more ice cap melting and higher sea levels yet none of these tipping points happened. Based on the paleoclimate record and the work done with models, one can conclude that the climate change we have been experiencing is caused by the sun and the oceans over which mankind has no control. Despite the hype, there is no real evidence that CO2 has any effect on climate and plenty of scientific rational to support the idea that the climate sensitivity of CO2 is zero, If the future is anything line the past warming and cooling cycles will continue and longer term warm periods and cooler periods will continue as the current interglacial period gradually ends and the new ice age gradually begins to develop. The whole process will take tens of thousands of years and mankind does not have the power to change it. At best all we can do is adapt to the gradually changing climate. This is all a matter of science.

Richard Patton

“gradually changing climate” I hope that it remains gradual. There is strong evidence that the change from relatively warm interglacial to full-blown glacial conditions can occur in less than 50 years and vice versa. If we did have such a disaster, I guarantee the “watermelons” would still say CO2 is to blame and we must fundamentally change society.

Gary Ashe

But they wouldn’t be out marching in 10ft of snow, making a racket in their pink tw@t hats.

Alan the Brit

The interesting thing to me is that glacial periods last between 90-130,000 years, & interglacials appear to last only 10-12,000 years +/-. The current Holocene started around 11,500 years ago, suggesting that we may be living on borrowed time!!!!!

Red94ViperRT10

I agree the change coming out of an ice episode into an interstadial can be as rapid as 50 years, maybe as rapid as 10 years, decline back into an ice age seems to take much longer, with fits and starts thrown in for good measure. And I’m too tired right now to look up and link to those graphs.

I thought this was the most stupid statement I’d ever heard:

“What we are saying is that when we reach 2 degrees of warming, we may be at a point where we hand over the control mechanism to Planet Earth herself,” co-author Prof Johan Rockström, from the Stockholm Resilience Centre, told BBC News.

Until I read the next sentence, which topped it:
“We are the ones in control right now, but once we go past 2 degrees, we see that the Earth system tips over from being a friend to a foe. We totally hand over our fate to an Earth system that starts rolling out of equilibrium.”

Theo

Giving new meaning to “Stockholm Syndrome”.

Yeah, those are great quotes. Very sciencey. NOT !

Greg Cavanagh

Looks like a massive ego.
When it’s good, we did it. When it bad, you did it.

RLu

That is great news.
After 50 million years of slow decline, the planet is finally returning to normal temperatures. That mutation in those tailless apes that allowed them to choke while eating seemed like a stupid gamble at the time. But the ability to sing turned out to be beneficial in the end. Now if those apes will just re-open the Suez and the Nicaragua straights, then the deep oceans can regain a bit of heat.
/s

Wim Röst

To be sure to reach a Hothouse State you need to reallocate the continents, you need to warm all deep oceans with some 5 degrees Celsius or more and you must reverse the main oceanic circulation:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/06/15/how-the-earth-became-a-hothouse-by-h2o/

We are living in a short warm interval within the coldest period of nearly 300 million years. All of our deep oceans are filled with ice cold water, just some degrees above zero. 95% of the 1.3 billion cubic kilometres of ocean water is ice cold. Some more wind during a longer period is enough to get [more of ] the cold water to the surface to restart the next cold period. ‘Man’ does not control wind.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/12/26/warming-by-less-upwelling-of-cold-ocean-water/

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/01/26/warming-and-the-pause-explained-by-wind-upwelling-and-mixing/

Theo

Yup, to have a Hothouse Earth, you need precisely the things of which we now have so few, such as many shallow, epicontinental seas (of which there are even fewer during glaciations), lots of water vapor at high latitudes, globe-circling tropical oceanic currents and thermal expansion of the oceans from more active seafloor spreading volcanism and physical expansion from underwater mountain building.

And flatulent gigantic sauropod dinosaurs or slightly less giant rhinos. (Just kidding.)

Paul

Hmm. I wonder what the atmospheric methane levels were 65 million years ago?

Ed Zuiderwijk

The Earth doesn’t care a rat’s fart about Methane.

Zigmaster

I always like the research that indicates that even if we followed the Paris agreement that this is not enough to avoid climate Armageddon. The inevitability and the confidence of that occurrence means that the proper action is not to decarbonise further but to stop all programs and use those funds to enjoy life and make our last days of existence as comfortable and as enjoyable as possible. Global warming disease is like a cancer, after traditional efforts don’t work one progresses to experimental nutcase solutions. The problem is that you still die but the kids inheritance is severely damaged. Once things are inevitable and action is futile it’s better to enjoy your last days as comfortable as possible and leave as much of your wealth as you can to your kids. Unfortunately the quacks who benefit on the gullibility of humans will always try to con the naive and desperate out of their hard earned fortunes.
Any suggestions by warmists that tipping points are passing that it’s now too late are the signs to me to put things into palliative care. Futility make any expensive actions unnecessary.

joelobryan

Oh the wonders of TheMagicMolecule™!
Where any claim can be validated by invoking its mystical powers.
They know there are tipping points all around us. Why? Because they say so. They wrote a “study” with a figure showing the Earth with arrows and names of things all over the place. It must be true.

pochas94

This will cause those Germans to build even more windmills.

Gary Ashe

No Trump is forcing them to quit Russian gas, as a national security issue, America are going to generously supply Europe with gas.

Win for Trump….= win for Americans.

Bryan A

Given that for much of the time during the Holocene the Earth has been warmer than that 4C above pre-industrial levels and 2C above current temps…And that we aren’t currently in a “Hot House Earth” environment…I would say that the Feedbacks inherent in the Earth System will not allow for any runaway conditions. Now that doesn’t say anything for potential sea levels with potential additional polar melt, odds are, throughout history, the sea level is quite capable of being higher and far lower than it is now just by natural processes. Eventually we will need to do something to protect our cities that we built far too close to the waters edge. We can’t just pick up a 50 story condominium and move it inland.

Might be time to start that coastal Sea Wall and Lock system

John V. Wright

Maybe they have never heard of an interglacial period. Maybe they have no basic understanding of geological history or knowledge of long-term celestial mechanics. Or maybe they are bad actors, as some earlier posts suggest, deliberately making these absurd claims to further the cause of global socialism. Whichever it is, these nut jobs are all over the media at the moment.

This morning on the BBC’s Today programme there was some Israeli nut job breathlessly explaining to the credulous presenter that Neolithic man was actually happier than humans are today. “Have you got that?”, I called to my wife upstairs: “When we were freezing to death in our caves, and dying from pestilence and starvation, and having our skulls caved in by the neighbouring tribes, and being eaten by sabre-toothed tigers we were actually HAPPIER than we are today when all we have is warm housing, healthcare services, plentiful food supplies, systems of justice and protection plus all the cultural benefits of civilised society. Who’da thunk it?!?”

How can apparently educated people be so irredeemably stupid?

Gary Pearse

Dont forget we died at the ripe old age of 25,too.

D. J. Hawkins

There is a scene in the animated movie, Early Man, where they divvy up the playing positions. The the grizzled old tribal chief is assigned as goalie so he doesn’t have to run around so much. “That’s right”, he says, “don’t forget, I’m nearly 32!”

Theo

Especially happy for Neolithic women, with yeast infections, vaginas torn during childbirth and risk of death at each birth. Not to mention being raided for marauding tribes.

Then there was malnutrition:

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2015/sep/10/neolithic-skeleton-oldest-case-rickets-hebrides

And of course agriculture led to more tooth decay and grinding down.

Percy Jackson

John,
Maybe you should read the paper or even just look at Fig 1 at
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115/tab-figures-data
it clearly shows the interglacial period and where the earth is in relationship to that.

And as for happiness it doesn’t depend on material processions or wealth but comes from a state of mind so there is no reason to suppose that Neolithic humans were unhappier than we are. There is plenty of evidence to suggest that people are happier and less stressed when living in a equitable society so they may well have been happier in the past when there were fewer rich people to be envious of.

bonbon

Dr. Schellnhuber CBE (Commander of the British Empire) openly states 1 billion might be tolerable to his highness. 99% of those with short brutal lives, never seeng their grandchildren have very little time for pursuit of happiness.

Pursuit of happiness is incompatible with such an, unfortunately traditional , oligarchy.

There is evidence people are generaly not happier in the presence of such genocidalists.

CCB

Yes even Professors seem that way too.
I used to admire Prof.JimAl-Khalili, but then he goes & tweets this non-science today:

‘Credit where it’s due. @BBCr4today had an item on climate change this morning and didn’t feel the need to have a denier on in the name of ‘balance’. Both contributors agreed it was happening and each had something intelligent to say. No conflict required.’

Prof.BriCox another presenter in UK also bangs this CAGW drum recently on the BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p01d56f7/in-search-of-science-2-method-and-madness

No wonder ordinary folk believe this CAGW non-science when 2 major players will ‘full access’ to the airwaves tell all it’s the case.

Dan Evans

Economic warfare

markl

+1 ……………

Wacky claim: Planet now at risk of heading toward ‘hothouse Earth’ state

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2 ºC of warming relative to pre-industrial doesn’t even get us out of the Pleistocene ice age climate…

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Peta of Newark

How *do* these people get around? How do they get through doorways or even manage to get up out of a chair?

The chips on their shoulders are simply gargantuan.

ATheoK

It’s not just the chips.

It’s also their swollen egos that impede their passage through doors, down streets, and block interaction with normal folk.

Alan the Brit

Don’t worry, they have well balanced opinions with a chip on each shoulder!

Gerald Machnee

Nobody has proven a feedback effect.

Gary Ashe

And they never will.

Harry Newman

The lead author, Will Steffen, is a utter socialist nutter. Always needs to be at the centre of attention, but no one in their right mind could ever find the time to give him a serious job. In the old days (95-99) he was a sad lost fish out of water in Stockhom without a friend. The academic community avoided him like the plague, and “even” the student community considered him a simpleton. A lightweight chemical engineer dreaming of being the Tsar?

manalive

To get 2C above the pre-industrial level due to CO2, all else remaining equal, the atmospheric concentration must reach ~1120 ppm, to get 4C the concentration must reach to ~4480 ppm, given the current known reserves of fossil fuels that is impossible.

Gary Ashe

Prove it.

Gary Pearse

Ludicrous X-Box climatology seems destined to create a parimutuel betting category that I would be happy to play on the no worries side of the bet. Even if they hedge their bets by using a less extreme model output it would be like taking candy from a baby.

The “vigorish”, which will perforce come out of the pockets of the X-Box losers could go to pay the carbon tax. Id be all for this personally enriching situation. Everyone could he happy about the price of carbon and those betting on saving the planet would be paying for it. We would have to have a well paid third party with no skin in the game to curate the goal posts and record in advance what constitutes a win. Whats not to like?

M.W.Plia.

Obviously “Hothouse Earth” is just another “Wacky Claim” but it’s an important part of the Al Gore climate narrative and therefore will receive the desired media coverage. As is always the case with AGW, perception trumps reality.

The following is a quote from last Sunday’s editorial in the Toronto Star criticizing Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s proposal to fight the Federal Government’s Carbon Tax.

“In the real world, not acting on climate change will lead to catastrophe. The Trudeau government is putting Canadian jobs and families first by taking measures to curtail the devastating effects of climate change, such as rising sea levels, droughts, fires, flooding and species extinction”

Wow, just wow…unless we pay more taxes a man-made humidification apocalypse will destroy the planet.

Rich Davis

Yes, but think of all the Canadian jobs lost to species extinction! Wait, how does that work gain?

Roger Knights

“The Trudeau government is putting Canadian jobs and families first by taking measures to curtail the devastating effects of climate change, …”

Climate change is a global phenomenon; what Canada (or the U.S.) does to mitigate it doesn’t matter given the developing world’s much greater increasing emissions. If the cost were minor, it wouldn’t matter if we made a futile gesture, but the cost is high, and the risks of grid failures is another downside.

Dreadnought

I’m sick to the back teeth with all this cynical, opportunistic scaremongering from the global warming hoaxers: It seems to be on every newsfeed at the moment.

A bit of hot summer weather across parts of the NH, and all the spittle-flecked thigh-rubbers are shrieking about Catastrophic AGW again. It’s so 2007.

}:o(

Dreadnought
Agree – totally.
However, I suspect that another ten years (perhaps fewer) will show [Some of] the CAGW watermelons the error of their models.

For the populace as a whole, REAL cooling will – always – trump modelled warming.
Especially as so much of the ‘West’ is living on borrowed money [In the UK, thanks to the horrific money-spraying of the Brown-Blair regime, with annual deficits exceeding 100,000 million pounds . . . . ; that has to be reined in, then minimised.
And, eventually, refinanced or repaid.]

A terrifying inheritance for the nation.

Auto

Gary Pearse

Didn’t we just get rid of a Potsdamer nut through retirement. The real tipping point is the Institute sliding into an insane asylum with symptoms like this.

MarkW

If 7000ppm couldn’t put the earth into a hot house state, how is 500ppm going to do it?

Rich Davis

I think that Kristi or somebody once told us that the sun was, like, 200 times dimmer back then, basically just a dim star in the darkened sky 🙂

KAT

No, no, no! It’s not the sun! It’s CO2 dammit……./s

Steve O

“… tipping elements… once a certain stress level has been passed, one by one change fundamentally, rapidly, and perhaps irreversibly. This cascade of events may tip the entire Earth system into a new mode of operation.”
— It doesn’t sound like much of a balance, with all these dominoes just waiting to fall in a cascade.

Andy Pattullo

Get in line fellas. The number of folks predicting doom based on nothing but brain farts stretches around the block. Get to the end of the queue and wait your turn.

Keith Bates

And of course the Australian ABC ran this nutball piece with great glee in their morning news bulletins today. Fits in well with the “worst ever drought” we are currently experiencing oops we really meant worst in 50 years.

Jack Miller

Keith, I had the displeasure this morning of waking up to that little piece of propaganda on the ABC. Unfortunately it’s going to get worse here if El Niño thresholds are reached which is looking to be likely the case.

M E

It just appeared in New Zealand Stuff.co.nz Big headline .

Scientists need to realise, that the entire earth is NOT warming at the same rate. “Global” warming is NOT “Global”, it is “Regional”.

I divided the earth up into 8 regions, of equal area, by latitude. They are:
– 90N to 48N
– 48N to 30N
– 30N to 14N
– 14N to Equator
– Equator to 14S
– 14S to 30S
– 30S to 48S
– 48S to 90S

As you move from north to south, the warming rate decreases consistently. From
+3.98, to –(most Northern)
+2.53, to
+1.99, to
+1.63, to
+1.61, to
+1.29, to
+1.07, to
+0.26 ——(most Southern)
(all in degrees Celsius per century).

The most Northern region (1/8 of the earth), is warming at a rate 15.3 times faster, than the most Southern region (1/8 of the earth). Nearly 16 times faster!!!

Isn’t CO2 meant to be a well mixed gas? The CO2 concentration should be just over 400 ppm everywhere. Why is the CO2 in the southern hemisphere, not having the same effect as the CO2 in the northern hemisphere?

Look at the brightly coloured Global Warming Contour Maps, which show the decreasing warming rates from north to south, as colours. They go left to right, and top to bottom. Look at the legend, to see what warming rates each colour represents.

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There are full sized versions of these global warming contour maps on my website:

https://agree-to-disagree.com/regional-warming

Here is the legend:

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RyanS

Awesome graphics Sheldon. You may have unintentionally shown us clearly what AGW with Arctic amplification looks like.

https://nsidc.org/about/monthlyhighlights/2009/09/arctic-amplification

John Bell

All those high rise condos along the coasts, just live in the upper floors and park your submarine-car in the bottoms floors.

markl

Stop assuming these people are either out of their mind, stupid, climate change fanatical, or poor excuses for scientists. Start assuming they are after control of your energy and life. Now does it make sense?

J Mac

Just so, markl!

ChrisB

Farming entire Antarctica, Greenland and Siberia would not be so bad outcome in return for a little bit of flooding elsewhere.

Robert W. Turner

My studies show, that any day now, my dogs are going out of balance and will start shaking back and forth uncontrollably.

Edwin

Can we arrange for Schellnhuber to going on a speaking tour of China, India and the Third World? I am certain (ha!) those countries would all change their behavior immediately after hearing him pontificate about “hot house earth.”

Again why haven’t such idiots ever taken any history? It is like the Earth only came into existence the day they were born.

Roger Knights

“Can we arrange for Schellnhuber to going on a speaking tour of China, India and the Third World?”

In one of his books, PJ O’Rourke suggested that any such speaker had better have a rescue helicopter on call to save him from mobs angered at being told there was no upward mobility for them.

Pop Piasa

I could care less what Schellnhuber says. He’s just showing off his PNAS.

michael hart

“What we do not know yet is whether the climate system can be safely ‘parked’ near 2 degrees C above preindustrial levels…

As the great Skeletor once remarked, I could write a book about what they don’t know.