By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian
The failure of the atmosphere to warm in accordance with alarmist predictions is making it harder and harder to come up with a bona fide story that can scare you.
In a post a few days ago, I noted that “the whole climate issue seems to have mostly disappeared from the news lately.” Commenter niceguyeddie responded by giving me a link to the Washington Post (eddie called it “the ‘other’ Pravda”), and an article of July 5 by a guy named Jason Samenow headlined “Red-hot planet: All-time heat records have been set all over the world during the past week.” In the intervening week since this article, a few people on the internet have been busy making mincemeat of Samenow’s rather pitiful effort. For MC readers who don’t go out searching the internet regularly for real information on climate to combat the propaganda from the various Pravdas out there, I thought I would do the public service of presenting some of this real information here.
First, some basic background is needed to develop appropriate bullshit radar on this subject. If you follow climate or weather information even a little, you will already know that on any given day, somewhere in the world, some weather station, or more likely multiple stations, is recording an “all time high” temperature for the particular day in question, while some other weather station, or maybe multiple stations, is recording an “all time low.” It follows that the fact that multiple “all time high” records were set during the course of a week tells you nothing about climate change. There could have been even more all time lows, and the overall average could have gone down, no matter how many “all time highs” were recorded. Any reader of any intelligence whatsoever will immediately be asking, don’t just tell me about “all time highs,” but tell me what is the overall picture? How many all time lows were there? What is happening with the “average” temperature? You will not be surprised to learn that Samenow does not provide the answers to those questions. In other words, his article is not intended to provide useful information to the intelligent reader, but rather to propagandize those lacking in either basic background information or critical thinking ability or both.
There is an obvious source for the answer to the last question as to what is happening with the “average,” and that is the easily-available UAH global lower troposphere record, derived from satellite sensors. That record exists from 1979 to present. Here is the latest chart from UAH going through the end of June 2018:
So with that simple first step, we know that the “average” world temperature for June 2018 was +0.21 deg C above the 1981 – 2010 mean. That represented a decline of about 0.65 deg C from the all time high of this 39-year record, which was reached in early 2016. The 0.65 deg C decline represented more than 75% of the amount by which the average temperature had exceeded the 1981 – 2010 mean at the highest point. Suddenly the fact that some large number of “all time highs” was being set at the end of June does not seem very significant.
But it’s still fun to look at what Samenow claims for his “all time highs,” to see how real they are, or whether we are dealing with more of the usual “fake news.” This gets pretty bad. […]
As you can see, the failure of the atmosphere to warm in accordance with alarmist predictions is making it harder and harder to come up with a bona fide story that can scare you. They are reduced to cherry-picking some unrepresentative data points and leaving out all of the relevant context. It’s no wonder the reporting on this is becoming increasingly scarce. For you, the moral of the story is, if you want some real information as to whether the world is warming or cooling, and by how much, skip the propaganda at the various Pravdas, and go for the UAH lower troposphere satellite record. It is available in the form at the top of this post, at drroyspencer.com, updated monthly.
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Eyeballing the graph,it looks like a rise of about 1 Celsius degree per century. Wake me up when something alarming happens.
It’s actually much less that that. The satellite data trend looks worse due to volcanic cooling in the early part of the trend combined with the super El Nino at the end.
That’s why I did a little exercise to remove as much of this noise as possible to see what the real trend looks like. April-August represent the time of the year with the least ENSO noise.
The average global temperature for April-August in 1980-81 was -.06 C in UAH and +.03 C in RSS. So far in 2018 it is .20 in UAH and .27 in RSS.
Both of these periods are reasonably absent of climate noise (ENSO and volcanoes). They are comparable in non climate factors. Hence, we get a total warming of .24 C (RSS) and .26 C (UAH). That’s it, it only shows a warming of .25 C in 38 years. That is only .066 C / decade.
But it gets worse. There was cooling previous to this warm-up all the way back to 1950 when we have good ENSO data to try and remove the noise. So, when you factor this in you get .2 C of warming in 66 years. That is about .3 C /century.
I consider that there is a very strong chance that the temperatures today are no warmer than that of the late 1930s/early 1940s.
Unfortunately, our data sets are not fit for scientific purpose, and we require a complete reassessment from the bottom up.
When you consider that the parts of the globe with the best records (such as the Us and the UK) show that you are right, you have to wonder about the rest. An awful lot of warming seems to occur where homogenization and other adjustments have to be used.
I would not accept that in the science/economics areas i work in. If the reliable data showed one thing, and the manipulated data showed something else. I would at the very least need a very convincing explanation. Algorithms wouldn’t be that explanation.
Richard V wrote:
“I consider that there is a very strong chance that the temperatures today are no warmer than that of the late 1930s/early 1940s.”
I agree with you Richard.
It was almost certainly warmer-than-today in North America in the 1930’s and this may also be true globally.
Best, Allan
https://realclimatescience.com/systematic-destruction-of-the-temperature-record/
Here are sum fundamental facts.
Some more facts
There is only 1 temperature set that both sides trust and that is UAH. RSS was caught fudging as well so we dont care what RSS says.
I agree Alan – I ONLY use UAH – thank you.
Unfortunately, snoozing is not allowed when certain political parties are on a treasure hunt to seize your savings and tax contributions. Such lust tends to displace science, statistical significance, and common sense.
I’m not fully on board with the assumption that temp will continuously rise or rise a t a steady rate or that it will move in lock step up or down with CO2.
I concur. It appears as though a smoothed curve would show several frequency oscillations superimposed upon an underlying oscillation. Pick any short enough snippet and you can erroneously extrapolate a “hockey stick” based solely upon the slope of the superimposed “noise”.
Coach Springer:
we’ve had
a frequently changing
CO2 – average temperature
correlation since 1940:
1940 to 1975
CO2 level UP trend.
Average temperature DOWN trend.
Negative correlation.
1975 to 2003
CO2 level UP trend.
Average temperature UP trend.
Positive correlation.
2003 to mid-2015
CO2 level UP trend.
Average temperature FLAT trend.
No correlation.
As I read it CO2 rise comes after warming
It’s nothing to do with what climate numbers are doing. It was not warming 9 years ago either at the start of Obama’s world saving mission. Climate change faded from the news because Trump won the election and US agencies no longer have the same mandate from PotUS to propagandize it. What would be the point, when you no longer think CO2 is a pollutant, nor PM 2.5 an instant killer?
Ever been outside the US?
The United States has the best temperature records including precipitation and Min Max temperatures. World-wide that is hard to come by. Besides that, the US has a variety of climates and geography making it a good sampling of temperate areas. And the records go back to the early 20th century. Claiming that the US is an outlier with more cooling trends than the rest of the world – if that’s what you’re implying – really doesn’t fly.
What is the short term trend using the new US ‘gold’ reference sites data? How does this compare to the non-reference sites temperature sites used to calculate US temperature? Are they divergent in any way? Just interested as I never see the reference data shown anywhere.
Physics is different depending on where you live?
No, but it’s a bit more difficult to rewrite the historical data from all 1200 US weather stations.
Yes, if you manipulate the data. Physics and biology (not to mention economics) were different in the USSR for many decades. Because they were allowed to produce any number they wanted and those who said “niet” were kept very quiet.
Like global warming alarmism, Lysenkoism was another scientific scam that caused the deaths of tens of millions – in the Former Soviet Union and China.
Russian geneticists who spoke out against Lysenko’s falsehoods were imprisoned and some were executed.
Note the political similarities to the global warming scam.
Lysenkoism (lĭ-sĕngˈkō-ĭzˌəm)►
n. A biological doctrine developed by Trofim Lysenko that maintains the possibility of inheriting environmentally acquired characteristics.
All I know is that in the Midwest we had a terrible winter and awful spring and I really am enjoying this summer.
likewise. it was coooooold in Colorado.
However, I’m confused about this headline because I continue to get blasted with global warming propaganda every day. Heck, almost every other post on here is about some MSM nonsense touting GW/CC… so I don’t get it?
It may not be the most mainstream of mainstream but there are plenty of wannabee’s throwing out this garbage non-stop.
I should take screen shots. Oh, and also the alien nonsense is flooding my feed on my Motorola Droid Turbo 2 through Verizon. And no, I don’t look up aliens. ever. It is not something I’m interested in. Honestly, there is some operant conditioning in effect regarding aliens and this supposed saturation ever since the “disclosure” through the NYT with that elizondo nonsense crap. I think people found out that Harry Reids buddy essentially was handed 20 million and they had to create a cover story- housing alien goods, to trick the unthinking public to think about aliens rather than the 20 million dollar good ol boy handout. Anyway, what is the goal here with all this alien propaganda? I don’t get it.
I cannot for the life of me understand why they put that in there unless it is because the PIC wrote algorithms to combat the investigation into the false narrative, i.e., I frequent WUWT 85% of my web search on my phone so the googles or whoever automatically trended opposing viewpoints to combat my curiosity and keep up the mind control.
could be far fetched, I have no idea. but they are in there, 2-3 per day, and usually those same articles get blasted to pieces on here so I just wait a day or two to read the rebuttals here.
The moonbeams from California are moving to Colorado because the green policies worked so well there. /sarc…..
Somebody has to pay for all those windmills out there on the eastern plains. Notably, the guy with California licence plates with his head hanging out the window, holding up traffic driving at 40 mph… looking at the windmills. Aren’t they wonderful? Did I vote for that? No.
I wonder, who’s going to take down and pay for all that trash?
“I wonder, who’s going to take down and pay for all that trash?”
Just a few minutes ago I was reading about the mob moving in on green energy:
https://www.occrp.org/en/projects?option=com_content&task=view&id=394&Itemid=43
Yep, another area becoming dominated by the one really strong union, Il Unionne Siciliano. 😉
I say it this way: “Verizon Wireless – We’re lies ‘n’ virus”
(Can you hear me now?)
I believe that most everyone has now accepted that this issue is primarily a political fight now, not a scientific one. No one except a few die-hards are even trying to argue the issue anymore, and for those who are focused on the political fighting, Brexit, the DOJ, and the FBI are providing far more fertile grounds for battle these days. “Climate Change” has fallen into the bin of “ideas we thought would work for us but which really didn’t” , and as such it’s no longer useful.
“Climate Change” is the Stormy Daniels of the science world.
In other words, use to be hot, but now not so much?
And needed a lot of ‘adjusting’ even back in the day to be considered hot
Not according to the Guardian. We are experiencing the hottest La Nina ever!
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/13/heatwave-sees-record-high-temperatures-set-around-world-this-week
Here’s how it has influenced the global temps so far per the good Dr Spencer at UAH.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_June_2018_v6.jpg
There are many days following each solstice that set both heat and cold records, depending on which hemisphere you choose to observe and note. Weather events are not guaranteed indicators of the prevailing climate paradigm ( for anyone who might actually swallow the Grauniad gruel).
Never eat the Grauniad gruel!! It will only make you very sick. I had to laugh at an article published yesterday by Michiko Kakutani about how postmodernism and post-truth was turning the world into an Orwellian nightmare. I agree with her central premise, however she then used as an example ‘climate deniers’ undermining science. The very use of that dismissive term by somebody who is arguing for more ‘facts’ and rationality, made me gnash my teeth. Who ‘denies’ climate? Yet the author clearly believes she is the paragon of impartial truth seeking!
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/jul/14/the-death-of-truth-how-we-gave-up-on-facts-and-ended-up-with-trump
From what she wrote I would assume she is a progressive who is busy projecting the traits of her comrades onto the current administration (as if no one noticed these same tactics being used by the previous administration to promote a global socialist agenda through climate change panic). I believe the old “glass house” adage applies here.
I personally find the progressives and their tactics significantly more resonant of Orwell’s futurist fiction.
It starts to play tricks with your mind when both ‘sides’ are accusing the other of being Orwellian. I figure that conservatives and old school scientists (ie. actual scientists) are too, well, conservative to want to drift too far away from the idea of logic, objective facts and truth. Relativistic mayhem, moral or otherwise is too frightening a prospect for your average conservative! I don”t think the left has a leg to stand on because the very nature of ‘progressivism’ is constantly challenging the status quo, and the way to do that is to undermine the concept of immutable realities or truths. Of course right wing people lie and fabricate too; but postmodernism came from the left. Queer theory, transgenderism and AGW did not arise on the right. Social construction and ‘post normal science’ came from the left. She didn’t do her research very well…a very post-truth article indeed.
It always was, still is, and always will be a political fight. There is simply too much power & money at stake, and the public and (especially) politicians are too severely science-challenged to be immune to any/all mountebanks.
With the boobies lopsided to the left.
“I believe that most everyone has now accepted that this issue is primarily a political fight now, not a scientific one”
I don’t believe that is so; most people I know ‘believe’ in CAGW and think the science is there to back it up. Most people, despite believing in it, nevertheless don’t change their behaviour. It’s for da Guvment to do, ain’t it? Brian Cox, who is a very popular UK scientist (in Australia and the UK at least) was on a panel show (Q & A) on our national broadcaster, and he mocked a climate skeptic, to great cheering from the audience. I was pretty shocked that somebody who promotes and defends science, who really seems like a decent person with a good mind, could be so ignorant. I do hope one day he will actually take the time to look into the science, and have the decency and the backbone to recant his position and apologise. He has enormous popular support, so if he ever changed his mind and explained why he had changed his mind, he could go a long way towards changing public perceptions.
I don’t know where you live, but most of the people around me don’t believe that CAGW is anything but a tool of the left for destroying our freedoms. It’s not even the reason we voted for Trump, but we cheer him on in dismantling the EPA and directing NASA back to its charter mission. We are all naturally skeptical of anything the U.S. government has a hand in. We also don’t accept the idea that every paper and article that claims to have a scientific bases really has a scientific basis. A vast number of climate papers published have no reproducible experiment involved.
The level of incivility in behavior in the leftists in the U.S. knows no bounds. Soon the worst of them will be blowing up buildings again. No visitor with scientific or political views opposing those on most university campuses feels all that safe being there. I’m glad things are so civil where you live. It probably won’t last.
I’m in Australia; I think we’re a pretty apathetic lot. Certainly all my circle ‘believe’ in AGW, even CAGW, but they don’t seem too concerned about it, going by their consumption patterns! A few have put solar panels on their roofs, so I guess they feel they have done their bit. Our national broadcaster is heavily left-biased, so they only present one view. The trouble is the issue is so embedded in left/right politics; I am trying to get people to drop the partisanship and look at the data (and the evidence of politicisation of the science) with a clear head.
I was wondering why there hasn’t been more TV exposure about the fraud, or is that simply the leftist domination of the MSM? Most of the information, which is excellent, seems to be relegated to the internet, so if people are not actively researching the subject, of course people are unaware that they are being misinformed. Is it naïve to ask why Trump doesn’t call a press conference and openly disavow CAGW; with a short presentation by a scientist outlining a few key facts, the problems with the theory, and quotes from Climategate etc. This might end the scam and clear up the conflation in people’s minds of increasing CO2 emissions, warming and climate change? Or would that crash the world economy?
“I was wondering why there hasn’t been more TV exposure about the fraud, or is that simply the leftist domination of the MSM?”
Yes, that’s the reason.
@Sylvia – The only network that would carry an unbiased live feed would be Fox News. The MSM is anywhere from far Left to rabidly Left and lies daily about everything Trump does. The Left hates Trump passionately, and hates the Bill of Rights in the Constitution. Both stand between then and the destruction of the American way of life.
CO2 is a trace gas in our atmosphere. The real determinant of climate is the oceans, which contain 99+ percent of the energy needed to drive climate. Water Vapor, which comes from the oceans, is the biggest atmospheric nfluence on weather and climate.
Most of my friends, young and old, also feel that a civil war is inevitable in the United States. The Left is unable to accept this and continues in its delusion.
Ernest, I really hope it doesn’t come to a civil war. Have you heard of the #walk away movement? There may be more people leaving the left than you think. I think more and more people are waking up to the fact that whatever the left touches, it destroys.
Except in France, where the Constitution’s first article will now say that “Republique act (…) against the climatic changes “. Yes, changeS, because, apparently there are may of them. So we’ll have to fight also againt the natural change…
Bonne chance. You will not only have to fight the climates, but the tides, and the very Sun itself. (The celestial orb NOT Louis XIV) Très galant, très stupide.
Of course, the French Government as so many times before, can bring out the drapeau blanc. “Le Climat, we surrender!”
And in Canada Trudeau has turned us into a la la land with his proposed carbon taxes which he will enforce by the Supreme Court if he has to.
An important number to consider is that over the almost 40 years of the satellite record that atmospheric CO2 has increased by around 72 ppm. So from a starting point of 1850 where CO2 was around 280 ppm we have an overall change of 130 ppm of CO2 since 1850 to the current numbers of 410 ppm. Over half of the increase has occurred in the last 40 years yet we see only an 0.54 C temp increase globally using UAH, or with RSS 0.6 C. At least half of that temp increase is natural as most agree, and likely the natural portion is even greater than 50%.
So the best that can be said about the warming effect of increased levels of CO is that the additional 72 ppm over the last 40 years has only caused approximately an 0.3 C temp increase in global temps at the most. No wonder why the media feels the need to talk about some momentary hot spot or large weather event as being of some significance.
So from a starting point of 1850………….
How do you make those graphs and upload into this comment format?
I’m saving that image for future reference!
Its all been ”natural”, prove me wrong.
I feel pretty much the same. My upper comment is a very conservative position. I would otherwise be more inclined to state that 90% or more is natural warming.
The whole global warming hoax has been a farce on so many levels.
While not in the news as much, the idea that CO2 is a toxic pollutant which must be minimized embedded in popular thinking to the extent that it is just assumed in countless ways and places. Hopefully, this too will change as the alarmist views get less attention for the reasons the posts cites.
And often “CO2” is omitted and the word “carbon” is substituted in “news” articles – that is insane, because one who actually uses his mind knows that CO2 is not carbon. Doublethink is an effective weapon for alarmists.
The Royal Society of Chemistry describes carbon here: http://www.rsc.org/periodic-table/element/6/carbon
However the 10th paragraph in the RSC description includes some juicy propaganda on CO2, of course with no evidence cited to back up the claim. Why was I not surprised to find this conjecture on a scientific website?
I didn’t study chemistry, so this is an honest question: How can CO2 not be carbon when it has a carbon atom?
CO2 is not carbon in the same way than water is not hydrogen, even if its molecule has two hydrogen atoms.
Jake, that is kind of like asking how can water not be oxygen when it contains an oxygen atom. You can breath oxygen but you can drown in water. The chemical elements can be combined together into practically an infinite number of combinations. The molecules formed from the elements have different properties than the elements. Although carbon dioxide contains carbon it is as different from carbon as water is different from oxygen. That’s from a guy who slept through two years of college chemistry.
CO2 is the ash of carbon. It got burned; a different material with different behavior. Similar to striking a burned match. It’s not the same as before.
I will never be able to wrap my head around the way that different elements combine to make completely different substances. The wonder of nature.
My favorite combination is salt. Either component by it self will hurt life but combined it gives life.
Hey, let us talk chemistry :). Chemically, water is also a salt. The acid is the hydrogen ion, or a proton. The base is the hydroxide ion OH-. Acid + base -> salt. Now keep in mind, chemically speaking, that there are several kinds of acids and bases.
The problem is three different concepts are muddled up in the layperson’s mind. Increasing CO2 emissions, global warming, and climate change. They don’t understand that those three things are not necessarily linked to each other, yet they are used interchangeably as evidence of the CAGW theory.
Jumbling up the language is one of the tricks of the Alarmist trade.
The trouble with that is that teaching of this climate pseudoscience is now a fully embedded and integral part of school and University science teaching. Every bit as much as Newton’s laws of motion. Given that all education in the West has been completely overtaken by bulging-eyed left wing extremists -who are currently engaged in destroying the notion of gender amongst other things – it isn’t at all clear how they are to be stopped.
They to not teach science, which is a set of logical rules used to discern truth. They teach a religious orthodoxy they call science which is to be worshiped and defended, not investigated for future discovery
It’s trivial to stop. Just defund them all.
Prussian schools and universities are an insane anachronism in the 21st century. And with so many parents refusing to send their kids to them, support is going to collapse over the next few years in any case.
There is an ongoing Gallup poll that asks Americans what they think is the nation’s most important problem. There is no mention of climate change. Environment/pollution comes in at 2%.
If you don’t prime people by asking them specifically about climate change, it’s simply not on their radar.
As for media coverage, I have no idea. We can try to gauge folks’ interest in climate change based on google searches. When we go to trends.google.com and search climate change since 2004 we see that interest has been going up over time. link To my mind that means the drumbeat of propaganda hasn’t abated. Bear in mind, however, although some people seem more curious about climate change, the vast majority of people don’t think it’s an important problem.
It is interesting to compare with “global warming”. It has essentially gone off the chart:
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=global%20warming
These charts are quite interesting. Three things pop out:
1) Look by metro areas – places you would expect to be hotbeds are not. SF, Bend Oregon, LA, etc. are all below 50% of maximum interest. Today all seem to show about 5% of peak interest in 2007.
2) The interest levels (also check out related searches) seem to follow a yearly pattern, rising and falling from around 5 to 25% (of maximum interest). Even greater swings with other search terms.
3) Look at the chart by areas of the world – Of big countries, the US (22), Australia (22), India (32) and the UK (16) jump out. Canada (19) is less. In Europe, all are in the single digits, with uber-concious Norway coming in at (8), Sweden (4) and Germany (2).
For calibration, the highest interest is in the Philippines (44).
Perhaps what it means is that more people are starting to become skeptical of climate change and they are starting to look it up on google searches to check it for themselves. Typically you don’t do a google search when you already know the answer. Typically you do a google search when you don’t know the answer or when you are doubtful about something.
The Climate Alarmists have been crying Wolf for a long time.
None of these alarming predictions ever come to pass, so people stop paying attention.
I’m setting new all time records everyday for my age. I’m getting worried.
If you find a way to reverse the trend, please let me know.
For most of my life I was above my average height.
Now I am below that.
Girth does seem to want to expand to compensate.
This is almost as complicated at the atmosphere.
“Climate News Has Faded”
??
simples
=
nice weather recently
Inspires hope eh not – alarmists are maybe not COMPLETELY paranoid & seemingly stoopid.
Lets further hope, while they are out-and-about, they notice the differences between huge fields of verdant maize/potatoes/carrot/spring barley (dark green annual plants put there by humans) and the perennial grasses that give the impression of having totally died (a delicate shade of beige) and contemplate the implications that that simple observation might have on ‘Climate’
Washington Post (eddie called it “the ‘other’ Pravda”), – Вранье would be better? (Pravda means truth!)
An old Russian proverb, “There’s no truth in Pravda and no news in Izvestia.” Or is it the other way ’round?
It’s not what the actual word means in the language, but what it really represents. For example, one Socialist party in the US are called Democrats.
Waly D.
“(Pravda means truth!)”
And Izvetia means news… and as the Russians used to say..” There’s no truth in Izvestia and no news in Pravda!”
I posted some thoughts on the decline in CA maximum temperatures here: https://sierrafoothillcommentary.com/2018/07/11/if-planet-is-warming-why-are-ca-max-temperatures-declining/
Hooray, the boldfacing is now full-size!
If you follow climate or weather information even a little, you will already know that on any given day, somewhere in the world, some weather station, or more likely multiple stations, is recording an “all time high” temperature for the particular day in question,
Behind an ice cream van with the engine running?
If you follow baseball, the unique statistic statement is pretty common, and not so surprising – like how many times a lefty pitcher allows a lefty batter to have a triple when a guy was already on second, that ends a game. At the top of the 9th.
Wow – who da thunk that had never happened before?
That would not end the game.
Okay, try this one: In the next to the last game of the little league season last year, the Elks are playing the Cops at Pioneer Park. Elks up 6-4, Cops batting in the bottom of the sixth (little league games are six innings), two on, two out. The Cops’ left fielder hits one to deep center. The Elks center fielder (my grandson, incidentally) climbs the fence and takes a home run away from his best friend in school to win the game for the Elks.
Bingo! I think he meant to say, “bottom of the ninth.”
I remember hearing that two grand slams by the same batter in a game is rarer than a perfect game.
Stats are fun.
The way I see things, average weather is an anomaly. It just doesn’t happen very often so any current departure from the average is automatically attributed to CAGW.
I would disagree that “average” tells us anything. Temperatures have too much variability and range for the average to mean anything.
I agree, but the IPCC sure seems to know how to predict them 🙂
Furthermore, there could be an increase in both high and low temperatures and not have a change in the arithmetic mean. To better understand what is happening, the variance needs to be reported along with that one ‘magic’ number, the average. Unfortunately, the confidence interval is rarely reported along with the ‘new record high’ or “new record average,’ despite claims of 0.01 or even 0.001 (NASA) degrees C precision. It is a shell game where one can never be sure where the pea is being hidden.
If the data values do not follow a normal distribution then the variance may not be the best measure of dispersion; a better measure might be the Median Absolute Deviation.
My go-to statistic when talking about the real-world value of some averages: the average person in the US has 1.997 legs.
You are correct. It is quite possible (but currently unusual) to have a “normal” average temperature but be unable to grow crops due to temperature volatility.
It does make you wonder what the debate world would look like if the satellite had been launched in say 2002 instead of the late 70s.
Or conversely, if the observations from all sources were put together without homogenizing them. For example, the first 2 IPCC reports showed arctic sea ice extent using 10% concentration as the threshold, and (as is well-known) not many years before 1979 the avg extent anomaly was almost 2 million sq km lower than 1979 was.
Also, it might be nice if these reports would stop saying that the ‘satellite era’ began with 1979. Satellite imagery was gridded and used in the early ’70s to create those early reports.
The reporting is scarce, at least in the USA, due to Trump derangement syndrome. The press is so busy being hysterical about Trump, it drowns out everything else.
The media has Trump Derangement Syndrome in the UK. Most of the media seems to have become hysterical since the Donald arrived on our shores.
Why, man, he doth bestride the narrow world. Like a Colossus, and we petty men. Walk under his huge legs and peep about. To find ourselves dishonorable graves.
This past winter/spring, when record lows were being set right and left, the warmistas assured us that records were just weather and had nothing to do with climate.
This isn’t all good. I see politicians interfering in energy production as if it is settled science. Despite what the Trump administration is doing, alleged CO2 reduction is treated as if it is the top decision making priority. The wind farms are still being built, although there are a few municipalities trying to fight them with ordinances. But they do take grants and subsidies then distribute part of it back to the municipality/township/ county that would be against it.
As long as policy makers can treat it like settled science, no news is good news.
Coach, I agree I do not take the decrease in headlines and news about global warming as a good thing. Leftist policy makers and technocrats are still working on eliminating fossil fuels from the West’s energy portfolio. In other words they are quietly working behind the scenes doing their worse.
Is it just me? Am I missing something? .65C was considered by some to be a global warming warning?? OMG! I guess I’d better double up my a/c output.
Yes, but David Suzuki calls UAH “some denier from Huntsville”.
I call David Suzuki that A**ole from Canada. 🙂
This guy ran the climate change site for the EPA. How is a preacher supposed to make a living without scaring the flock with B.S.?
Lessons I have learned in this long life:
Three things are inevitable: Taxes, Death, and Climate Change…
And everyone should remember the satellite record starts at the low point of a cooling trend (the “ice age is coming!” era). In the US, which has most of the long-term land records, the 1930’s were warmer than the late 1990’s.
Tom,
It depends on what you include in the ‘satellite record’. Satellites were flying and taking pix of polar ice for gridding and extent analysis/reporting from 1973, as described and charted in the first 2 IPCC reports. Interestingly, those reports used a 10% sea ice concentration as the threshold for inclusion.
Steven, I was going off UAH. There are earlier satellite records, but not really organized until 1979.
This was all a scam, and they just needed a gullible public to go ahead and support a couple things:
commitment to steady government funding, such as governments committing to putting all pensions in green investments, and most nations committing to having very large green programs, including commitment to carbon emission goals via a Kyoto type cap-n-trade deal.
Then, it would have been baked-in. They were steady on the way, but the apple cart got upset. First, by legitimate counter voices – WUWT as a prominent one. Next, by Trump election – this broke up the hegemony across nations. Before Trump, no one really cared that China’s commitment was fake – because it was about baking in the gravy train, not reducing carbon emissions. China would have played along with a carbon market, and everyone would have been happy.
please do not jump the gun, LastDdmocrat.
Just for fun…
DJT the USA Presidend,, (as it happens to be in reality) then the condition “leads” to – “LastDemocrat”.
Otherwise, if Hillary would have won, the condition may have being that of leading to the – “LastAmerican”… 🙂 (towards)
cheers