Guest opinion: Dr. Tim Ball
Science historians say the Scientific Revolution began with Copernicus when he proposed the heliocentric system that the Earth orbits the Sun. I used to think it was not worth discussing because one in four Americans and one in three Russians think the opposite, namely the Ptolemaic view that it is an earth-centered, geocentric system. You can argue, as I have in the past, that it doesn’t matter for them as long as the Sun rises and sets every day. However, understanding this basic scientific information becomes critical in the global warming debate because the sun/earth relationship and changes are central to the Milankovitch Effect and its impact on climate change. Sadly, the problem of lack of understanding and knowledge is much wider and deeper, as those in the struggle to expose the false or limited science of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) know. Skeptics of the AGW claims made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are painfully aware of the unnecessary energy and environmental policies imposed at the cost of trillions and counting.
Copernicus bounced his ideas off trusted friends in a handwritten book of 1514 but did not authorize publication until two months before he died in 1543. As a canon of the Catholic church, he knew their law and the dangers in even questioning it. The only major difference between then and now was the punishment for speaking out. How far have we come in the intervening 475 years? In general terms, a long way scientifically, but a very short distance in societal terms.
Science advanced because, despite almost constant harassment from many groups in society, it was practiced by a few with skills and a determination to uncover the truth through facts and logic. For the most part, they deliberately tried to be apolitical. However, even within the science community prejudice and ignorance made the practice of science difficult and unrewarding. Michael Faraday, in my opinion, one of the great scientist’s in history, suffered persecution and shaming because; he was the son of a blacksmith; he did not go to university; and he belonged to the Sandemanians, a strict fundamental religious group. Regrettably, today two of these are still considered impediments by too many people.
Society did not advance as much because it considered the 15% of the population a fringe group. They were very slow to adapt and adopt ideas from those mad and dangerous scientists; an image promoted by Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein among others. Those opposed to scientific advances exploit these fears and slow things even more; consider the term “Frankenfoods” used to block the benefits of longer storage by irradiation.
A major part of the problem is in the two areas that arguably have the greatest impact on society, politics, and the law. They are also the areas where the percentage of people with scientific skills and interest are the lowest. It is, perhaps, double jeopardy that lawyers are the largest professional group in politics.
My personal experiences, although not definitive, underscore the problems. I appeared before the Canadian Parliamentary Committee investigating the ozone issue. There was only one committee member with any science training, and he had a bachelor’s degree in biology. Two significant events occurred. The first involved another scientist presenting with me. He showed graphs of ozone levels and spoke about them showing the lowest levels recorded over Toronto. When it was my turn, I did what I hope I never have to do again. I threw out my presentation and began by asking the politicians if they realized that there were no readings over Toronto at the time claimed. I discovered that none of them knew that what they were shown was not real data, but computer model generations. I also realized that none of them knew or understood the scientific method and the claim that CFCs causing a hole-in-the ozone was an untested hypothesis. I explained that science advances by hypothesizing and then testing it and the assumption on which it is based.
To underscore the ignorance, one Liberal parliamentarian said, “Dr. Ball, Galileo would be ashamed of you.” I replied that it was beyond my wildest expectations to be mentioned in the same sentence as Galileo and clearly you do not understand the role of Galileo in the history of science. To my knowledge, there were no politicians with science degrees in my two appearances before the US Congress.
It is easy to say the politicians were easily fooled by the deliberate misuse of science, but that is not acceptable. It is their job to do their research, and they have the staff and resources. It was Marc Morano’s job for Senator Inhofe as he challenged the prevailing wisdom. The problem is most are too busy being politicians about issues that should not be political. Those who chose AGW science as a political issue knew they could mislead politicians ignorant of science and far too eager to be ‘green.’
Maurice Strong knew and also exploited another weakness of politicians, their almost total dependence on bureaucrats. He assured bureaucratic control of every national weather office across the world by making them members of the IPCC through the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). It is the original fake news story perpetuated by the ‘deep state.’
Canada’s Minister of Environment and Climate Change is a good lead into the next problem facing science because she promotes the IPCC deception fed to her by the bureaucrat scientists at Environment Canada (EC). As a lawyer, she is in a group that openly admits they won’t arbitrate science disputes because they don’t know anything about science. Then displays this ignorance by publicly ridiculing those scientists practicing their role as skeptics. As a lawyer, Ms. McKenna should at least know there are two sides to every dispute. Scott Pruitt, a lawyer and head of EPA knows it because he wants a ‘red’ and ‘blue’ team to bring climate science out of politics and back to reality. McKenna would have more credibility if, like her predecessor Canadian Environment Minister Christine Stewart, she admitted it wasn’t about science. Stewart said,
“No matter if the science is all phony, there are collateral benefits…Climate change (provides) the greatest chance to bring about justice and equality in the world.”
Stewart talks about justice and equality, but how do you achieve that when the science is wrong and the people most hurt by the policies it engendered are the poor?
The second experience involved my lawsuits. I knew through research that virtually everyone who goes to law school is an Arts student. My challenge was to find a lawyer who could understand the science and the scientific method. The law says it is not qualified to resolve science disputes, but why not after almost 500 years? The law adjusted to societal changes as bureaucracies grew in size and complexity. For example, the US passed the Administrative Procedure Act 72 years ago in 1946 as bureaucracies need guidelines and controls. Why, after 475 years doesn’t society pass a “Science Procedure Act? Such an act would prevent the filing of racketeering charges (RICO) against climatologists who perform their scientific role as skeptics. Instead, it would file them against those failing to follow the dictums of science who withhold data, misuse methods such as proving a hypothesis or use science for a political agenda.
The law claims it is not qualified to distinguish between, “your paper” and “my paper.” Despite that, there are countless examples of them making judgments on scientific issues. Some occurred because those exploiting science also exploited the law. For example, the EPA under Obama engineered and lost a lawsuit against it for failure to protect the people of the State of Massachusetts from CO2 as a harmful substance. It ended up before the US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) as intended. Justice Scalia questioned why they were being asked to make a decision on science when they weren’t qualified. He then pointed out that the court made its judgment on Administrative Law which gave the power of eliminating harmful substances to the EPA. What SCOTUS overlooked was it was EPA who designated CO2 a harmful substance. Even minimal scientific knowledge would have told them it is not harmful and about the important role in creating and sustaining life on the planet.
Another important and immediately relevant legal ruling likely would not have occurred if the judge knew and understood science. Virginia Attorney General (AG) Ken Cuccinelli lost the suit against the University of Virginia and Michael Mann demanding the release of data and information for his ‘hockey stick’ creation. The AG argued that taxpayers paid for the research and the results were used to implement global, draconian, and unnecessary policies on energy and environment. People had a right to know the scientific validity of Mann’s claims. To my knowledge, Cuccinelli did not argue that a fundamental test in the practice of science is ‘reproducible results,” which can only occur if data and methods are disclosed. The judge, knowing this, would not have ruled that the data and methods were Mann’s intellectual property. It is a measure of how little people understand science and its methods that EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt’s call for full disclosure is met with vigorous resistance, even allowing for the political situation.
For 25 years I taught a Science credit course for Arts students. It was part of a traditional liberal arts idea but with the normal bias because Science students had to take two Arts courses. What was even more annoying was that the university created courses that were not even marginally science to make it ‘easier’ for the Arts students.
I taught the course as a basic instruction in how the Earth works. The course was basic science and understanding for people who were all going to become citizens of the planet. They were all going to be confronted with issues and decisions involving science and the environment. The more informed they were, the higher the chances of sensible fact-based decisions, but also, the lower the chances of them being exploited by people who use lack of knowledge to manipulate and control. Although I did not teach a course in the history of science, I gave many guest lectures in the history department course on that subject and incorporated several lectures into the ‘Earth works’ course.
There are many things we can do as a society to change and improve the knowledge and understanding of the people. One is to take back control of the education system, which is now more than ever a place of indoctrination. This will be difficult because politicians face a dilemma of needing an educated workforce but knowing when you educate people they start asking questions. We then introduce compulsory courses in all schools, whether public or private, on the history of science. You begin by acknowledging the simplistic division in any society between the minority (15%?) of people who are ‘comfortable’ with science and the majority who are not (85%). You then create courses relevant to the needs of all as future citizens of Earth. These courses are not career paths, but simple preparation for the complexities and challenges of life. There should be a compulsory course at Elementary, Middle, and High School and another at all post graduate institutions. As philosopher and mathematician A.N. Whitehead said,
“A science which hesitates to forget its founders is lost.”
We must create a section of law for science that applies basic scientific rules to disputes and conflicts. It will include a code of scientific conduct, such as applying the rule on math tests, ‘show your work.’ It should also include rules on morality and ethics for research. Variations are already in place at most universities. This area will become a separate option, like Corporate or Constitutional law. It will require lawyers who have science degrees with courses specifically in scientific disputes before practicing.
The strength of societies and the effectiveness of progress is in the ability to learn from mistakes. The AGW deception is the biggest in history and occurred because a majority of people, especially in the critical areas of politics and the law, were uneducated in science and the scientific methods. Scott Pruitt is a good example of the type of lawyer we need. He learned much about climate science from association with fellow Oklahoman, Senator James Inhofe, the only true champion of climate truths in US politics who fought for balance against great odds. We can produce more like Pruitt and reduce exploitation and become better citizens and stewards of the earth.
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“As a canon of the Catholic church, he knew their *LAW* and the dangers in even questioning it.” Oooh ! Scary link to pages of *LAW*. Cue the Inquisition and warm the charcoal! Um, the whole Copernicus/Galileo/Earth/Sun thing was a heck of a lot more complicated than the simplistic “Science” right “Religion” wrong trope. And after 400 + years that’s still the only “goto” argument to pretty much dismiss anything the Church might have to say on any matter at all. I didn’t fall for it.
I believe in data and evidence. Maybe there are vast gaps in the fossil record so much so that the theory of evolution may not be all there is to know about carbon based forms developing over the millenia but short of any other valid theory I will go for Darwin. I am an atheist cause you cant point me to where God has his throne. If you believe in a pink elephant you must prove it. I cant prove that a pink elephant doesnt exist. The same goes for the DARK ENERGY,DARK MATTER , ozone hole and CAGW nonsense.
Hard to have a positive proof of anything. For that, you need evidence and data that is unquestionably and totally accurate. There is always an element of doubt which renders almost all conclusions into an opinion with varying degrees of probability.
I agree that your list of concepts rate pretty low on a probability scale, but if they cannot be disproven out of hand, then it may be unwise to discount them in their entirety.
Worse, a little research would’ve shown canon law had nothing to do with it– he was sick of people making fun of him.
The rules against teaching theory as fact weren’t involved, HE was willing to make it clear he was pushing a theory.
Heckler’s veto: turns out it’s not new.
http://tofspot.blogspot.com/2013/08/the-great-ptolemaic-smackdown.html
(point #6 here)
just a thought. Here is a picture of the mediaeval view of the universe. So we know what we are talking about. It was based on Aristotle. They got their ideas from the past and cited authority
A picture is worth a thousand words
You really should click through and read at least the first several points in the article; you might enjoy it, and it will give you a better grasp of the situation.
For those interested, this photographer has both the above picture and many other icons, including when the art was in the process of being made.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/frted/sets/72157626232279900
Ron van Wegen wrote: the whole Copernicus/Galileo/Earth/Sun thing was a heck of a lot more complicated than the simplistic “Science” right “Religion” wrong trope.
actually, it’s not–it is simpler than that. Galileo’s undiplomatic personality rubbed too many people the wrong way and even when he was obviously in trouble managed to alienate his last powerful ally, the Society of Jesus, which agreed with his theory and initially offered to help him. After the trial, one of the bishops admitted the real target was not Galileo’s science but Galileo himself. Some prominent clergy had favored the heliocentric theory over the Ptolemaic theory since the 13th century. Although new theories always face criticism, even today, only Galileo was ever persecuted for championing the heliocentric theory, and although the book that was at the focus of his trial was prohibited, other writings that championed the theory were not, and the theory itself was not systematically suppressed. The Vatican even cut Galileo a little slack by permitting his sister, a Carmelite nun, to make the official retraction on his behalf. In spite of his personal conflicts with the hierarchy, Galileo died as a faithful Catholic. It seems to have been a rival religion, Deism, whose propagandists turned the Galileo incident into a story about unending conflict or intrinsic incompatibility between science and religion. It is unlikely that Galileo himself would have agreed with this interpretation of the event.
Dr. Ball, if you have never heard him, I strongly recommend you invest 13 minutes to listen to KGB defector Yuri Bezmenov discuss psychological warfare in the form of ideological subversion. It explains so clearly why we are witnessing the spectacular sunset of reason and sanity.
(I’ve posted this before, so please pardon my reposting it here.)
No models. Neither digital or mechanical. Just movies … dreams … drunken escapades … vomiting in alleys … passing out in a refuse bin. No models. Hau Hau.
Thank you Dr Ball for writing this piece. Before I read even half of it I had already begun to compile and list of people I needed to share it with.
Bayes theorem and Boolean algebra are attempts since the 18th and 19th centuries to apply mathematical logic in human thought and decision making. Unfortunately only mathematicians understand them. Just wait until we invent smart AI. After we replaced welders in factories with robots, we’ll replace policy makers with AI’s.
http://www-inst.eecs.berkeley.edu/~cs150/sp98/lectures/week4_1/img010.GIF
In the future, policy debates will look like this. The two humans are just props to make the TV screen look symmetrical
Love Baye’s Theorem.
A now fundamental aspect of signal theory.
Yay for Bayes’ theorem!!!
If you ever get results back from an important medical test, make sure you understand Bayes’ theorem before you freak out.
Example:
A patient goes to see a doctor. The doctor performs a test with 99 percent reliability — that is, 99 percent of people who are sick test positive and 99 percent of the healthy people test negative. The doctor knows that only 1 percent of the people in the country are sick. Now the question is: if the patient tests positive, what are the chances the patient is sick?
The intuitive answer is 99 percent.
The correct answer is 50 percent.
The siamese twins of fuzzy thinking, law and politics should be the triumverate of fog with the inclusion of their third sibling, the mainstream media. People believe all sorts nonsense because they read it in the MSM. The list is very long but, for example, fat is bad for you, you need X cups of water per day, salt is bad for you, vitamin supplements are good for you, all German cars are well made, all movie and music stars are experts on health/environment/mental health/diet etc., CO2 is a pollutant, polar bears are dying, etc. My wife has a BSc and a degree in journalism. Journalism students in her cohort were required to take a very rudimentary math course which they hated because they didn’t have the attention span to master fractions and they argued correctly that they would never need to do fractions in their chosen professions. In a better world, journalists would expose and ridicule the muddle headed thinking of politicians and lawyers (and of AGW promoters). Sadly they are not nearly up to the task and recently politicians have discovered that they can say pretty much anything to almost all reporters without being challenged.
How to defeat AI:
AI will work in scenarios it has seen before and the state estimations are known and accurate.
AI will not be able to reliably extrapolate to the new, where only partial information is available.
And if deception or stealth/camoflage is then employed in the extrapolation scenario by the adversary, the AI agent will always lose.
Deep Blue can extrapolate forward and calculate the potential moves of Kasparov. Each chess game is new and partial information available since it has never played that game before. It has not calculated all possible moves from beginning to end of that game. It decides based on partial information and incomplete scenarios.
However, chess has a clearly defined and unalterable ruleset from which an AI can extrapolate. real life human-interactions don’t.
While I agree with the general sentiment presented here – that people should learn more about science – I feel that the point is badly argued, and the proposed cure of bringing scientific theory into law would make matters much worse. Science is a process for arriving at a better truth – it is not THE truth. Science can be, and frequently is, completely incorrect.
Law is a process for settling disputes, and, strictly, has nothing to do with ‘the truth’. Though, obviously, determining an ‘accepted truth’ between parties is a good way to settle a dispute.
Incidentally To my knowledge, Cuccinelli did not argue that a fundamental test in the practice of science is ‘reproducible results,” which can only occur if data and methods are disclosed. The judge, knowing this, would not have ruled that the data and methods were Mann’s intellectual property seems completely wrong at law to me. The issue was one of ‘who owns the data’. If it were owned by Mann, he would be perfectly at liberty not to disclose it, or to destroy it if he wants. That may not be ‘good science’ – but the law does not force people to think or behave ‘scientifically’….
Science historians say the Scientific Revolution began with Copernicus when he proposed the heliocentric system that the Earth orbits the Sun. I used to think it was not worth discussing because one in four Americans and one in three Russians think the opposite, namely the Ptolemaic view that it is an earth-centered, geocentric system.
And as the post shows 90% of scientists don’t understand that there is no absolute coordinate system* anyway, so neither, or both, views are correct depending on your point of view.
Scientific facts are, like any other facts, relative to a belief system. One cannot argue that the belief system is correct, only that it is internally consistent and works well, as a model.
The argument against the alarmists is not that they have a different belief system, but that they attempt to justify their conclusions using the scientific model, which does not share the same assumptions.
This cannot be done.
*Though for rotation, its probably true that the average of all the mass in the universe defines the absolute rotation of an element with mass, inside it.
The spacetime curvature around the sun is greater than around the Earth. That’s not relative to the motion of inertial frames. If you try to negate sun’s gravity by measuring it from an accelerating frame, Einstein’s equivalence principle states that gravitational field is equivalent to acceleration. So you need greater acceleration around the sun than around Earth. The difference is still measurable.
Moving bodies follow the geodesic in the curved spacetime. The geodesic is the orbital paths. Since the sun gives the greatest curvature, we know the planets orbit the sun, not the other way around.
Kepler noticed all 3 models, Copernicus,Ptolemy,Brahe, agreed to with an error as small as one wanted. But all 3 could not be right. A persistent tiny anomaly could not be curve-fitted away, he alone noticed. What was the error of all 3 opinions? What did they all agree on – the equipolent problem. It was a huge breakthrough to first see outside all geometric efforts – a physical principle was at work. Science is not curve fitting models. A real physical principle , universal gravitation, would never spontaneously sprout out of the geometric-algebraic molasses as in alchemy! Science is making that discovery. Nowhere in the data itself resides universal gravitation. Nowhere in the curve data of a catenary resides the principle of least action, nor kinetic energy in Decartes absurd laws of motion.
Einstein put spacetime geometry, not the old stuff , back as a physical principle from the stress-energy density continuing Kepler’s discovery. Universal gravitation, kinetic energy, least action, stress-energy tensors are not beliefs. What is relative, motion, is not what is real.
This process of discovery is not for a law – it is lawfull itself, from natural law. And even lawyers can demand discovery.
Your comments are hightly relevant to an interpretation of the work of Nikolov and Zeller.
We are grateful for the importance of the Paris Convention, while this convention has long been insufficient. Brutal geoengineering should be introduced immediately with the acceleration of fusion and LENR developments.
I think the jjudge in your case nailed you perfectly
““the Article is poorly written and does not advance credible arguments in favour of Dr. Ball’s theory about the corruption of climate science. Simply put, a reasonably thoughtful and informed person who reads the Article is unlikely to place any stock in Dr. Ball’s views, including his views of Dr. Weaver as a supporter of conventional climate science.”
Here is the thing. You haven’t actually done any science to speak of.
But go ahead amuse us by posting the data and code of any reproducible science you have done.
code and data.
Stephen Mosher: you expressed rather concisely what I would ask of you:
“Here is the thing. You haven’t actually done any science to speak of.
But go ahead amuse us by posting the data and code of any reproducible science you have done.
code and data.”
The theory of CAGW has not produced any laws, theorems, postulates, axioms, nor formulae. The ‘greenhouse gas’ property has not been measured in any meaningful way. We can’t measure it in Miami, we can’t measure it in Denver, we can’t even measure it on Mars with a 95% CO2 atmosphere.
well said Thomas.
I’m confused, this is not the forum to reach Dr. Mann…
You missed the point entirely because of your bias. Data and code do not equal science when dealing with real, physical properties. At best, data and code let you propose a theory or hypothesis. At some point, science needs to concentrate on developing methods and procedures of an experiment that will prove what happens physically when conditions such as CO2 concentrations change. Working on models prove nothing, otherwise we wouldn’t need to test airplanes, we would simply move from design to build and deployment! Even Einstein’s theories remained only theories until scientists were able to physically begin testing them, and he had all the math in the world backing him up.
The way of Science is a narrow path. It was Kepler who showed Ptolemy,Copernicus,Tycho Brahe all shared the same error – geometry. Kepler showed universal gravity was outside all their geometries, as such the first astrophysicist. Galileo wrote he could not understand 1 word of Kepler’s books. And as Bishop Berkley locked up Newton’s works for 100 years, it took Keynes to admit Newton was the last alchemist.
So when scientists are so utterly confused and radicalised, any self-respecting lawyer does’nt need rocket science to avoid it like the plague. And when that Robespierre of the human mind, Kant (Edgar Allan Poe’s “Can’t”) is adored by faculty, run! Kan’t is so bad even Einstein was tarred as a follower – his reply : Chacun a son Quant-a-soi – relativity at its very best!
+1^10
Might I suggest that the words ‘skeptic’ and ‘skepticism’ may not be the best words in the language for expressing the concept?
Give ‘RATIONALIST’ and ‘RATIONALISM’ a go as being as being words that have a better fit for the purpose at hand.: ‘RATIONALIST’ — A person who bases their opinions and actions on reason and knowledge rather than on religious belief or emotional response: — (And I would add: On political leaning.”
I have always found it deeply irrational to describe oneself as Republican, Democrat, Conservative or Liberal. How is it possible to agree with all the principles all the time of any political party. After all, they change them constantly in an effort to match the voters’ mood.
In politics, it’s a best fit situation not a 100% fit situation. Hence why some people, over time, move from one to the labels/parties to another as the old one ceases to be a good fit whereas one of the others becomes a better fit.
Science runs in fads. A lot of science is pockets of facts infilled with cliche thinking and buzzwords purporting to be knowledge. Science advances on the backs of stubborn people. Science institutions are designed to make small changes. Big changes come hard.
“How far have we come in the intervening 475 years?”
Kepler made strides with seasonal weather forecasts based on heliocentric planetary positions, but church and state have kept most of us in Plato’s cave ever since.
Unfortunately the dearth of politicians with a science education is true in most countries. The one with a Cambridge degree in Natural Science (Physics) in the UK is probably the biggest sceptic of CAGW in Parliament, Peter Lilley.
Peter Lilley was dispised by elements of the civil service as a minister and has rarely been allowed to present his position independent of government since.
despised
“she promotes the IPCC deception fed to her”
No, she promotes facts. Apologies if that upsets you.
Drowning in irony.
not just irony but a colossal lack of self awareness.
EPA Chief, lawyer Scott Pruitt’s Red and Blue Teams ist the way to go, to cut through the swamp. He knows it is not about even the “secret” science, rather about jobs, regulatory purgatory and politics and massive money.
Dr Tim Ball,
” …The AGW deception is the biggest in history and occurred because a majority of people, especially in the critical areas of politics and the law, were uneducated in science and the scientific methods. …”
—-
You need to rethink that bit.
I knew a Brit doc of marine geology in the early 1990s who fell for the IPCC greenhouse scare. It was absurd, and I was disgusted that he was taking it seriously at all. But there are gullible doctorate holders who should know much better, who fell for the IPCC slop, so we can’t be surprised if partially trained non-scientists routinely do too.
They fall for it because they simply accept what the IPCC says without checking it. Most can’t believe other scientists would practice bad science. This is why on my book I put the quote from Klaus-Eckart Puls on the cover.
“Ten years ago I simply parroted what the IPCC told us. One day I started checking the facts and data – first I started with a sense of doubt but then I became outraged when I discovered that much of what the IPCC and the media were telling us was sheer nonsense and was not even supported by any scientific facts and measurements. To this day I still feel shame that as a scientist I made presentations of their science without first checking it.”
I think many simply accepted the media presentations of IPCC presentations. Anyone who read the reports would have to recognize it as very poor science. Did I just use a Tumpism?
Science only advances one funeral at a time. All our high technology and complex thinking can’t seem to affect that.
Well the Hawkthing robot seems to have been scrapped so we await a useful step up.
I see what you did there.
Thank you.
Real Science only needs one example where the current model can’t explain. That is why you reject a null, you never accept it. This is my attempt to demonstrate that that one experiment exists in plain sight, and everyone is ignoring it, or they don’t understand its importance. Sorry for the links, it is the only way to convey the message.
Isolating the Contribution of CO2 on Atmospheric Temperature
In any serious scientific experiment, efforts are made to “control” for as many exogenous factors as possible. The whole purpose is to isolate the impact of the independent variable on the dependent variable. ΔWeightloss = ΔCaloric Intake + ΔExercise + ΔBase Metabolism + error. To minimize the error of the model (maximize explanatory power), variables outside … Continue reading
https://co2islife.wordpress.com/2018/02/14/isolating-the-contribution-of-co2-on-atmospheric-co2/
Isolating the Impact of CO2 on Temperature Reveals No Warming over the Past 100 Years
Here are CO2isLife, we pride ourselves in not being Climate “Scientists” who have had our minds polluted by the Man Made Climate Change Echo Chamber. We view our lack of formal Climate Education as a positive, not a negative. It allows us to look at the data, results, and research in a totally impartial and disinterested … Continue reading
https://co2islife.wordpress.com/2018/05/08/isolating-the-impact-of-co2-on-temperature-reveals-no-warming-over-the-past-100-years/
Funny how Wikipedia is again a centre of controversy through editing: we had -and still have- the grave digging William Connolley for climate entries and it looks like anti-war activists got their own version of a motivated editor https://www.rt.com/uk/426679-cross-galloway-clark-wikipedia-troll/
Regardless on which side of the issue one may stand, it is the similarity in approaches that demonstrates how the climate issue is intimately tied with the globalist warmongering agenda.
I work as a scientific theorist, specializing in the causes of and effects from methodological error. Over the past decade I have worked part time in global warming ciimatology. Findings from my research give me a perspective that differs from the perspective of Dr. Ball and suggest remedies for methodological error that differ from Ball’s.
In reviewing the methods that are used by global warming climatologists in the performance of their research I find absence of the statistical population underlying that climate model which is slated for use in guiding regulation of Earth’s climate system. This is a methodological error for which the penalty is for the model to generate no predictive information about the outcomes of events, making regulation of the climate system physically impossible. This finding leads me to prefer retraining of global warming climatologists over retraining of lawyers and politicians as a remedy for the uselessness of present day global warming research. Each such climatologist should be retrained to place a statistical population under that climate model which is slated for use in regulation of Earth’s climate system. For this remedy to be applied is necessary but not sufficient for Earth’s climate system to become susceptible to regulation.
Gobbledygook, Terry.
Dave:
“Gobbledygook” is an assertion but not an argument. Do you have an argument to make? If so, what is it?
Terry
Terry, I suspect most of the activist climatologists would resist retraining to the bitter end.
For it is hard to convince a man of something his paycheck depends on not seeing.
Tim Ball is right, this current mass hysteria is manufactured by our bureaucrats, successfully, because of the scientific illiteracy of our age.
I have argued the validity of CAGW with many “educated” Canadians, most demonstrate an intellectual laziness, trust in authority and faith .
Very few have bothered to read even one of the IPCC reports.
Propaganda by headlines,constant repetition…everybody knows.
John:
Well said. I’ve found abundant evidence that training of our students in logic and critical thinking skills need beefing up.
Terry
Terry,
I found the only worth of higher-education was to learn how to research and teach yourself, plus how to discipline austere thought, to something that deals just with the observations (as opposed to the theoretical interpretations of observational data, that always gets published, and ‘taught’ the mostest, into sci-myths).
I observed that most of the people who went through the same courses as me did not learn this. The necessary foundation was never set within them.
And I found also that even the most careful thought still produced falsehood and unsuspected self delusions, until discovered, and it shocks you that it occurred to you too.
Then I further discovered that no matter how much higher and finer your education is if you personally don’t have the spine to apply data and thought honestly, or appropriately, then that eduation is totally wasted on its recipients, anyway.
Higher education’s effectiveness is much more about the individual than the system, or the ciriculum.
And mostly it fails to take.
Hence I do not respect people with a trove of alphabet salad after their name, on their business card. I assess them on their clarity about observation, and unadorned thinking, and not on their application of theories, or interpretations. And on their personal acceptance of the false, and of what they don’t know—i.e. no take and no SPINE.
i.e. higher education often fails, and its failure is generally is not recognised, nor accepted.
Hence we get higher educated people, like Kirsty in here who actually advocate for AGW belief, while condemning skeptical individual inquiry, and conservative reservation, while herself parroting as the tuth that which is unknown, or unknowable.
Delusion reins supreme despite her success in educational endeavor.
So I doubt re-education is a panacea here, it’s more personal, genetic, psychological and self-selection dominated.
Terry,
Part II
I decided to add to the comment above, as there’s an identifiable reason for the difference I noted, namely, why it’s so?
The difference in personal emphasis was puzzeling at first so I eventually asked myself why I’d responded diferently, to the very same courses, as those who’d failed to get their foundation set, and to learn how to learn, and learn how to think, and to stick to observarions themselves, and have the in-built spine there, to do so.
The difference between us reduced down to just one factor.
MOTIVE.
I had presumed the other students wanted the same things I did, to understand the Earth, but this was wrong, but not obvious, at first.
I found they only wanted a career and an employer in a profession, as a means to an end. They learned theory and interpretation to a level that complied with more narrow professional standards of paradigm group-thinking and comprehending.
It was clear to fellow students that I understood the Discipline far better than they did. They knew it and my Profs knew it too.
But why? I wasn’t smarter. It’s just that in order to actually try to understand observstions I needed to review the observations, and data, and sift all of the options myself, and research them, to more fully understand.
My fellow students didn’t have to do any of that to achieve their more narrow goals—so they just didn’t. They ouly had to pass the assessment criteria at each part of the coarse to become attractive graduates to an industry employer.
So the other students were oriented toward conformity to interpretations of paradigm, thus to become a dependent of an employer’s good graces, to be happy with the trained ‘product’—them.
Whereas I had to do all that they did and then put all ofvthat aside, to teach myself how to actually think and undetstand the obsetvations, and evaluate them for myself as to what they indicated. One of the fastest ways to do that was to examine non-conformist, non-consensus ideas, and controversy, plus new observations, or new interps of old observations, and to examine heretical notions, as well.
The implication was that I learned much faster and in much greater depth than the other students, and never felt satisfied or content with accepted paradigm views, concepts and bagage.
I was not necessarily a good standard institutional ‘product’. This product was going to challenge and non-conform. This was going to be an independent mind, who was not looking to be ‘subject’ to an employer ‘King’. This person would start his own business and employ himself instead, and never have to compromise mind and understanding in order to make money.
My motivation was alien to the govt institutionalised career slaves.
A ‘consultant’ was considered to be a bit of a wisened experienced old guy, to the students. But if you study to understand instead of to be slavish, and a resonator if the so-called ‘known’, you would never know enough to become the business owner, the employer, the boss.
The slavish career conformist could only aspire to become a tenured thus ‘independent’ ‘boss’ within a govt institution, i.e. not an independent boss at all.
But when a ‘professional product’ is al that you produce, rather than an emphasis on understanding, you seek to eliminate non-conformity, so you end up with a conformist CULTure, within the Department and wider Discipline, where the unthinking institutional rise of theoretical non-sense like AGW then can come about with little difficulty, which thus becomes a proxy-belief system for the thus politicised and govt institutionalised.
The independent ‘understander’ aspirant will never just accept such theoretical ideas and claims, they will be skeptical, as they are with everything else, which is essential to even begin to learn anything new, so will quickly debunk then toss it aside AGW, then be astonished to find that the ‘Discipline’ becomes adhereants, to such obvious bunk and junk-science.
The institutionalised and slavish dependents dud not learn to learn, nor learn how to think outside of the accepted interpretive paradigm, and they know not to diverge from slavishness, or lose their career and standing.
The independent non-conformist realises most of the professionals are thus just delusional or dishonest, doesn’t care much that they are, either, as his money supply is not dependent on being slavish, nor an intellectual chamellion, to blend in.
So motive determines your level of career institutionalisation, or alternatively, you cognitive freedom and lack of interest in proxy-beliefs like AGW, and instead an emphasis on observations alone, as opposed to theoretical paradigm’s interpretations of observations.
CAGW, in accademia, is just the result of a neurotic level of dependency and its slavish c
onformity to proxy-beliefs to secure an employer who will pay for a sychophantic vocational, and sadly, political product.
i.e. NO SPINE.
Their higher education had totally failed to take.
Re-education is not going to change that dynamic.
Making them independent will though.
Change pre decisions, prior to the emergence of the motive. Make them want to UNDERSTAND, the earth, and the result will be actual independent science inquiry.
We accepted free-speech as a core modern western value, a long time ago, because we realised it can produce highly productive independence of minds, that leads to freedom and understanding, and better outcomes.
97% consensus? … phft!
That’s 97% lack of understanding, freedom and independence.
WxCycles:
My experience is similar to yours. To be a real scientist one must have a moral compass.
Terry
dear Foxfier I don’t see why a picture of what mediaeval people believed is something to argue about. It is just a clarification in picture form.
They thought of the creator as outside space and time ( so there is the Creator outside the Cosmos) and they thought that the Earth was a globe surrounded by spheres containing the Sun and Moon and stars in their respective spheres. That was their scientific thinking. Anyone who said otherwise was heterodox . I don’t think this way myself but that was the scientific position at the time of the debates on the Sun going round the Earth. it was obvious , they thought.
That’s all that my post was about. Icons are used a great deal these days to convey information. A running figure on a notice tells you where the emergency exit is. and an envelope on a computer screen tells us where the mail program is. They are just picture which convey information.
so yet another “expert” wants to lecture the holi poli on our ignorance … pass … I think you’ll find when the crutch of citing “experts” are taken away from the average person they are perfectly capable to figuring things out for themselves … most people don’t care about it and the few that do don’t think for themselves enough … they are capable of it they just need the “experts” to be shown to be frauds …
The great biologist, George Gaylord Simpson observed “It is an aphorism that no one knows everything about anything….When you don’t know something, seek an expert.” (roughly what I remember). I still remember that advice from his circa 1958 textbook on biology. The problem is that bringing the masses up to the level of understanding of a complex scientific issue to be capable of making considered decisions or come to sensible conclusions on their own is simply not achievable. To rely on experts, the masses must be able to distinguish between experts who are bs artists and experts who are legit. Big problem.
Right. Fortunately, the masses only need to know one readily understandable principle to distinguish the bs artists from the scientists. This principle is the falsifiability of claims. Unfortunately the masses don’t know this principle now.