Guest pondering by David Middleton
NEWS 06 MARCH 2018
Volcanologists warn world is unprepared for next major eruption
A big blast could hobble global trade, communications and financial systems.
Alexandra Witze
The world needs to do more to prepare for the next huge volcanic eruption, a team of leading scientists says.
The devastating Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004 and the Tōhoku earthquake in Japan in 2011 highlighted some of the worst-case scenarios for natural disasters. But humanity has not had to deal with a cataclysmic volcanic disaster since at least 1815, when the eruption of Tambora in Indonesia killed tens of thousands of people and led to a ‘year without a summer’ in Europe and North America. Such world-altering blasts rank at 7 or more on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) scale of eruptions, which goes to 8.
“The next VEI-7 eruption could occur within our lifetimes, or it could be hundreds of years down the road,” says Chris Newhall, a volcanologist with the Mirisbiris Garden and Nature Center in Santo Domingo, Philippines. But the time to have this discussion is now, he says, so that researchers and government officials can plan and prepare before an emergency strikes.
Newhall is the lead author of a paper published last week in Geosphere1 that explores the potential consequences of the next VEI-7 eruption. His co-authors are volcanologist Stephen Self of the University of California, Berkeley — with whom Newhall devised the VEI scale2 in 1982 — and Alan Robock, a climate scientist at Rutgers University in New Brunswick, New Jersey.
[…]
Newhall’s team says that researchers should start to prepare for a VEI-7 eruption by studying potential effects on crucial communications links — such as how atmospheric moisture and volcanic ash can interfere with global positioning system signals. Others could work to improve their understanding of how large amounts of magma accumulate and erupt, helping scientists to forecast where the next VEI-7 event might occur.
The researchers already have a long list of candidate volcanoes that might be capable of a VEI-7 blast. They include Taupo in New Zealand, site of the world’s last VEI-8 eruption — 26,500 years ago — and Iran’s Mount Damavand, which lies just 50 kilometres from Tehran.
[…]
The Nature article is actually longer and more informative than the Newhall et al. Geosphere1 article:
Specifically, we focus on Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 7 eruptions, which occur 1–2 times per thousand years.
[…]
We suggest and apply criteria to identify candidates for future VEI 7 eruptions, and discuss likely challenges for short-range forecasting of such events. Preparation for such low-probability but high-consequence events is difficult to imagine…
[…]
Yes. It is very difficult to imagine how to prepare for the global impacts of low probability geophysical hazards if the timing and locations of such events are all but impossible to forecast until the eruptions are imminent. Cataloging and monitoring volcanoes capable of VEI 7 and greater eruptions is a good idea. But… serious question: How could anyone actually prepare for the global effects of a VEI 7 eruption?
The Nature article linked to a couple of other interesting articles by Ms. Wiste:
Each article included a cool graphic:
The fact that none of the massive Yellowstone eruptions made the cut provides some context to how truly massive these eruptions were.
The take-away from this graphic is: Don’t live near stratovolcanoes, particularly if they have histories of generating nuée ardente (pyroclastic flows) and/or lahars (volcanic mudslides).
As a geologist, I’m all for monitoring active volcanic fields… But, I’m not sure I see how we could prepare for a massive eruption of any of these.
If and when Yellowstone pops off another Ultra-Plinian (>VEI 6) eruption, the best we can hope for is that we have the resources to clean up the mess…
Most people are probably unaware of the fact that Sunset Crater in the San Francisco volcanic field near Flagstaff AZ has erupted within the past 1,000 years, that the Raton-Clayton volcanic field in NE New Mexico was active as recently as 45,000 years ago or that Los Alamos National Laboratory NM sits just north of a still-active mini-Yellowstone (Valles Caldera). These volcanic fields are not monitored.
Massive caldera-forming volcanoes like Long Valley and Yellowstone are the volcanic equivalent of an ARkStorm flood. Very few have occurred in human history. Of the 22 identified VEI 8 eruptions, none have occurred during the Holocene. The most recent, Taupo Volcano in New Zealand, occurred 24,500 years ago. Of the 128 identified VEI 7 eruptions, only 10 occurred during the Holocene and only 3 during the most recent 2,000 years.
There is a long observational history with volcanoes like Mount St. Helens, Vesuvius, Aetna, Montserrat, etc. It’s possible to predict eruptions with sufficient accuracy to order evacuations. We have no idea how much warning we will have of a major eruption of Yellowstone or Long Valley. No one has witnessed one of these types of eruptions in recorded history. There really aren’t any benchmarks for when to order an evacuation. It’s essential that these volcanoes be closely monitored… But, I don’t think there’s much we can do to prepare for or even mitigate the effects of super-eruptions.
A Plinian or Ultra-Plinian eruption of Yellowstone would be really bad.
What do WUWT readers think? Is there a way to prepare for the global impacts of the next VEI 7+ eruption? Should tax dollars be spent on such preparation?
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so with 100,000 deaths in the balance, say, within half a millennium what should we spend? The present controllers of science would count the deaths as a net benefit!.
Likewise, should we be preparing for the next Carrington Event?
Isn’t there a homeopathic solution for this?
NEWS FLASH: FEMA already spends large sums of US taxpayer dollars for such unpredictable events like volcanoes and earthquakes.
As will everything, there are risk/reward analysis that can be undertaken. Since the probability of the largest volcanic events VE8 are small and the probability of survival is also small no matter what is done, putting a lot of effort into preparation does not make sense.
On the other hand, the probability that some disaster will impact a family during their lifetime is much higher. Thus, it does make sense to be at least somewhat prepared for whatever disaster might occur.
Basic preparation means having extra food, fuel, water, simple medical supplies (bandage materials, simple disinfectants, and whatever else the family usually uses), batteries and a battery operated radio. Be prepared to purify water if needed. It happens quite often when there is a flood or long outage of electricity that water even out of city water supplies is not safe. Simple purification can be filtering water that is not clear (can even use a coffee filter), then adding 3 drops of bleach (unscented and uncolored) basic bleach to the water will make the water safe. The water should set 30 minutes after putting the bleach in. Or if possible, boil the water instead for at least 1 minute at a full boil.
Basic prepping for any kind of disaster makes it more likely to survive major volcanic events or whatever else might strike. Having basic supplies on hand also mean that if some more minor disaster hits – such as a flood, hurricane, tornado, blizzard, earthquake, smaller volcanic event happens, you won’t be one of those rushing to the store to buy bottled water, batteries or can goods. You will already have sufficient to last several days.
One problem is that the Globalist types have forced so many into the inner cities and surrounds (easier to Tax and control votes), that the individual Prepper, away from the cities, is generally one who does these things.
Those in the cities generally are the ones that are going to running up and down the street, with their GoPros, Tweeting” Save Me” !!!!! Where is the help? The national Guard? I am going to sue someone , fast!! The other half will be doing the time honored tradition of Looting themselves out of poverty.
They need to do modeling. That’s where the money . . . uhh . . . science . . . is.
And declare we’ll be doomed by 2,100 if we don’t stop using sugar. Wait . . . what?
Surprising that the list of major volcanic eruptions left out the midcontinent rift (1.1 bya) in the US. Extending from TX-OK up to Lake Superior, then down into TN. The eastern portion is obscured by the Grenville orogeny while the Ouachita orogeny overlay southern portion of the midcontinent rift.
Having lived in New Zealand and been to Taupo (Pronounced “toe pour”), if there is another VEI-8 event then humanity is doomed.
In the event of a major catastrophe will the EPA/government suspend ethanol mandates for a short time until crop production returns? Will the taxing agencies still demand my payment of taxes even though they are not removing the deceased zombies from the street in front of my house? Will the bank foreclose on me if I’m late on the payment? Can I eat the neighbor’s cats if she is no longer around ? LOL
What am I going to do without cold beer? I need to plan for these issues today!
We aren’t even preparing for an EMP attack, so that we could or would have the will to prepare for a volcanic event is ludicrous.
We are prepared for an EMP attack. The danger was never as high as some have claimed.
Apparently, from the very sketchy records that remain, around 500 AD there was a volcanic explosion so violent that it led to a decade without a summer. In Indonesia local memory says it was so violent that its caldera split an island into two. The only candidate that I know of is the Sunde Strait, in the middle of which sits … Krakatau. (I wonder what VEI number would append to that explosion.)
How would even the “advanced” nations prepare for something like that?
But it’s natural! I’m sure it will be completely fine. Mother Nature knows better than us ignorant, foolish humans. Or do you dare to question her infinite wisdom?