Claim: Halting Economic Growth the Key to Solving Climate Change

Women picking from the barren, stubble-field the scattering blades the reapers have left behind.

Women picking from the barren, stubble-field the scattering blades the reapers have left behind. Public Domain, source Wikimedia

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

A new paper claims more shared development goals and less emphasis on wealth creation is the key to solving climate change.

Economic Equality Is Key to Solving Climate Change, Report Shows

By Jeremy Hodges

6 March 2018, 02:00 GMT+10

Economies need to reduce inequality and promote sustainable development for the world to avert the perils of runaway global warming, according to new research.

The risk of missing emissions targets increased dramatically under economic scenarios that emphasizes high inequality and growth powered by fossil fuels, according to research published Monday by a team of scientists in the peer-reviewed Nature Climate Change journal.

“Climate change is far from the only issue we as a society are concerned about” said Joeri Rogelj, the paper’s lead author and a research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis outside of Vienna. “We have to understand how these many goals can be achieved simultaneously. With this study, we show the enormous value of pursuing sustainable development for ambitious climate goals in line with the Paris Agreement,” he said.

Read more: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-05/economic-equality-is-key-to-solving-climate-change-report-shows

The abstract of the paper;

The shared socioeconomic pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and a middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 500-1100 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO2 to more than 120 GtCO2 per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: 1) the policy assumptions, 2) the socio-economic narrative, and 3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6 W/m2 differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectorial extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6).

Read more: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13280/

The paper is a little coy about what they mean by “shared socioeconomic pathways”, but the following description of their favoured scenario caught my eye;

SSP1 Sustainability – Taking the Green Road (Low challenges to mitigation and adaptation)

The world shifts gradually, but pervasively, toward a more sustainable path, emphasizing more inclusive development that respects perceived environmental boundaries. Management of the global commons slowly improves, educational and health investments accelerate the demographic transition, and the emphasis on economic growth shifts toward a broader emphasis on human well-being. Driven by an increasing commitment to achieving development goals, inequality is reduced both across and within countries. Consumption is oriented toward low material growth and lower resource and energy intensity. …

Read more: Same link as above

The paper has a point – there is no doubt if the world killed off prosperity and rapid economic growth, CO2 emissions would stop rising. If we all lived like people do in places like Cuba and Venezuela, places which have de-emphasised material concerns like financial security and having enough to eat, our global carbon footprint would be substantially reduced.

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drednicolson

There is no Law of Conservation of Wealth. Which never stops the utopian (read: dystopian) socialists from trying to invent one.

Bryan A

My wallet had an Economic Growth, then I went to see the Doctor about it and he gave my wallet an Economic Growthectomy. My wallet is feeling much lighter now.

Paddy

What a brave, brave New world.

rogerthesurf

“Halting Economic Growth the Key to Solving Climate Change”
Well they have it sort of right there, although as an economist, I have always been aware that the standard solution to AGW involved wrecking the world economy (and starving everyone except the so called elite).
So the claim seems to be consistent with the standard, non Marxist, economic view of the effects of CO2 reduction, which is well documented by Milton Friedman.
Unfortunately as there is no proof that anthropogenic CO2 causes global warming, it is my belief that making the world poorer, by any means, will only have one effect, that is – it will make the world poorer.
The true economic effects CO2 reduction is something that Lord Stern would not admit, although I believe he is a politician not an economist. If he believes what he spouts, he would not even be able to pass Economics 101 at any reputable university.
Cheers
Roger
http://www.thedemiseofchristchurch.com

RLu

History has shown, that during a ‘Golden age’ a society can allocate resources to art, education and philosophy. But when faced with environmental or outside pressure, those resources are needed for security or food production.
So liberal arts professors should get ready for their next career in agriculture. Without oil, that plough is not going to pull itself.

Bryan A

Oil Horse Oxen … something needs to do the work

2hotel9

If you want a row broke using them it will take 20-30 professor team and knot those plow lines, you gonna need to “motivate” them.

Curious George

An 8 hour work day will be a thing of the past. Hunter-gatherers have to work 16 hours or more. Assign liberal arts professors to the task, and it becomes 32 hours a day.

michael hart

That is indeed about the only positive that can be taken from this piece of so-called research:
While we can collectively still afford to pay such stupid people to produce this misanthropic twaddle, there is clearly a lot of scope for it to get much worse. Small mercies…

Justin McCarthy

That is truly scary. Everyone would starve if we had to rely on Liberal Arts professors. Going from teaching two or three classes a day to pulling a plow. Oh my!

2hotel9

That is why you knot those plowlines! Seriously, though, if anyone gets the chance at a state fair or farm show try out breaking row with horse or oxen drawn plow. It is an experience!

ScottM

Which socialists have made that claim?

Paul Penrose

Socialism itself assumes a zero-sum game when it comes to wealth, since they believe it is found, not created.

Warren Blair

Communism.

Louis Hooffstetter

Peta of Newark

Nice one Louis – gotta run that through the subwoofers when I get home, may start at 9 b4 giving it 11
:-O
Usual rules: clear the floor, give it some stick and wrap shape around it.
Follow the brunette’s lead if you’re feeling shy.
This IS real science you’re doing here. You’re looking for the Dopamine it generates – clue being that you will come out of it bright, clear-headed and wanting more.
Rather than dizzy, muddled, forgetful and sleepy as other (chemical) sources of Dopamine provide.
Lap it up. There is no better.

JRF in Pensacola

WB: “Communism.”
Exactly. And, what was Communism good at? Killing people, directly or indirectly. Climate Change solved!

Latitude

I thought they tried this already in Africa….
…long live Xi

They are doing it in Cuba and Venezuela right now. We lived like that during the war too. Other than ashes from the one stove, there was no need for garbage collection either. Yes, let the good times roll.

JLC of Perth

And Cambodia.

Bob

The problem is this fetish humans have for longevity.

RockyRoad

Yes, I have a strange penchant to see tomorrow’s sunrise.
If I have enough food for breakfast, even better!

“inequality is reduced both across and within countries.” Will somebody show me what “equality” looks like for any species? Not with an abstract example, mind you, but a real example of equality existing between any living creature. I would love to see what it looks like!

RockyRoad

Here it is for salmon:comment image

Michael Cox

What’s going on with the dog?

Bryan A

He senses something fishy is about to happen

Roy

The dog? “four legs good two legs better.”

somebody show me what “equality” looks like“. Orwell did that in Animal Farm – “the happiest animals live simple lives” and of course some are more equal than others. The Iron Law of Bureaucracy operates unfettered under communism, and the result is always a brutal dictatorship, built upon a cult of personality and enforced by a reign of terror. That is exactly where the free world’s Green parties would take everyone, given the chance.

China just banned “Animal Farm”, and also the letter “N”! https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/01/asia/china-letter-ban-trnd/index.html

Bryan A

China also banned all references to Winnie the Pooh. Xi Jinping is somewhat irreverently known as Winnie the Pooh. (A photo of Xi Jinping and Barack Obama had them positioned just like an illustration of Winnie the Pooh and Tigger). This latest move by Xi Jinping and the ultra thin-skinned sensitivity to even the mildest comments are very very bad news for everyone. China has also, according to recent reports, almost doubled its military expenditure.
Bad times ahead. I sincerely hope that POTUS is up to the task when the S hits the F.

zazove

Oh come on, there is already way too much equality, what we need is a bit more redistribution:
http://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Wealth-Inequality-1.jpg

MarkW

That percentage is small compared to most socialist paradises.

MarkW

1) Most of the 0.1% are athletes and performers.
2) The list of those in the top 0.1% changes dramatically every year.

D. J. Hawkins

@zazove;
Look closely at the notes on that curve. It’s constructed by capitalizing the income reported on income tax returns. In other words, it counts ONLY income. My parents, were they alive today, would be rather low on the scale, having only a retirement income based on Social Security. But the curve wouldn’t capture the house they live in. They bought it for $25,000 in 1961, and today it’s worth about $500,000. Tricksy little things, economists. Before they screwed it all up, when IRA’s were first started, if you contributed the maximum amount of $2,000 a year for 45 years of work and invested in a mutual fund that mimicked the Dow Jones Average, with dividends reinvested you’d have a raw ROR of about 10% and you’d have about $1.5 million in your nest egg. That graph doesn’t catch that, either.

MarkW

Equality is when everybody has what our betters consider the proper amount of stuff for people like us.
Nothing more, nothing less.

gnomish

it has electrolytes

Bryan A

Equality is when everybody has $200 (but owes $400 for their monthly electric bill)
Capitalism insists on it being their own individual $200 that they earned themselves
Socialism insists on it being the Same $200 that the government gives them (government gives $200 once and everyone passes it around)

Eugene S. Conlin

@ gnomish March 5, 2018 at 8:19 pm
+10
… it’s what they crave 😉

Michael Cox

RR has it right with the salmo, we’re all equal only when we’re dead. Communist despots just typically move that date up for some people.

reduction of inequality does not mean equality.

MarkW

Equality means everyone has the same opportunity.
Whether you take advantage of that opportunity is up to you.

Kristi Silber

Mike W “Equality means everyone has the same opportunity.”
Too bad this is so far from the case.

2hotel9

No, it is the case. People do not have equal opportunity when leftists trolls like you get involved in their lives.

MarkW

It is pretty close to the case. The biggest problem is those who would rather not try, then whine that they aren’t getting ahead.

DonM

… and an increase in equality does not mean inequality.
But making everyone “more equal” (the whole point) does not sell well does it?
Why don’t they strive for an INCREASE IN EQUALITY (more of a perceived good), rather than a DECREASE IN INEQUALITY (less of a perceived bad)?
Making everyone “less unequal” sells much better. Are you a buyer or a seller?
(and where’s Griff?)

Bryan A

While the Lowest Common Denominator does create a sense of equality, it is still the LOWEST COMMON GROUND possible

Trebla

Sounds like the East German experiment all over again. From everyone according to his abilities, to everyone according to his needs (NOT!!!)

Paul Penrose

Just list to “Trees” by Rush.

TonyL

Spot on.
Venezuela represents the ideal, with near perfect economic equality. The society consists of the vast multitudes who are all equally poor and miserable, and a tiny elite ruling class which is rich beyond reason. Consider that in the models the rich elite are too few to be significant, and so can be safely ignored. The model result is a population which is perfectly uniform in it’s economic equality. Perfect.
Bonus #1:
Without sustaining investment, oil production in some of the richest fields around is shutting down. “Leave it in the ground”, a holy grail of the environmental movement is realized.
Bonus #2:
Without funds to conduct seasonal activities like spring planting, the entire agricultural sector collapses. This, of course, furthers economic equality. As another environmental plus, the farmland is returned to nature.
Utopia at last!

Michael Cox

+1 famine

Deano

+2 Mass Death… Gaia Smiles…

Wrusssr

+ 3 Hope

Hugs

+1
These people believe that Venezuela is not doing socialism right. But the problem is, every time you try, you’ll soon run out of other people’s money.

Hugs

By the way, Venezuela hot not run out of plastic litter yet. But if has run out of toilet paper. So only people that have friends in government have any.
Hell on Earth. But, you could argue, at least they don’t have any economic growth to speak of.

Hugs

s/hot/has/g

MarkW

Unix geeks unite

Gunga Din

The paper has a point – there is no doubt if the world killed off prosperity and rapid economic growth, CO2 emissions would stop rising. If we all lived like people do in places like Cuba and Venezuela, places which have de-emphasised material concerns like financial security and having enough to eat, our global carbon footprint would be substantially reduced.

Hmmm…how much of a problem is “illegal immigration” for Cuba or Venezuela?
It wasn’t much of a problem for the Soviet Union either. (The Iron Curtain wasn’t built to keep people out. It was built to keep people in.)
It sounds like the goal of this plan is to give people no place to go.

Sara

The most recent report (last week) is a line 8 miles long at the Colombia border, of people trying to get permission to enter Colombia to get work. The bolivar is so worthless that some people are using bolivars for craft projects.
Meanwhile, there is no food unless you count scrounging in the trash for it.

Hugs

In progressive countries, the issue is not illegal immigration, it is illegal emigration.

Bryan Johnson

I remember reading a few months ago that [Ecuador] has been experiencing a problem of illegal immigrants from Venezuela. Never been to [Ecuador] — assume it’s an okay place, but wouldn’t want to live there — but how desperate does a Venezuelan from a modern city to try to sneak across the border to a poor, mountain country just so they could get a chance to get a small plot of land so they could grow a few potatoes?
[True, the Equator crosses Ecuador, but there is very little land right on that specific line. 8<) .mod]

Bryan Johnson

Mod — [Blushing loudly enough to be heard in the next county] — thank you for correcting my geographical spelling. I must have missed that lesson on northwestern South American nations when I was in fifth grade.
In *any* case, the concept is valid. Ecuador has been having with people from Venezuela trying to get across the border without permission or documents. As for the land, I don’t know about that, but at least they don’t have to deal with Chavez-inspired storm troopers trying to beat them into submission.

Brent Hargreaves

Gunga, “The Iron Curtain wasn’t built to keep people out….” You’re right. I would recommend a book entitled “The Forsaken” by Tim Tzouliadis. It relates the little-known story of migration by Americans to the workers’ paradise of Russia during the Great Depression. Only a handful of them ever made it back, having realised their terrible mistake. The rest of them perished. The Soviets being highly skilled at media suppression, the majority of the forsaken folks and their families left little trace after the initial honeymoon period – they even set up a baseball league in those early days, competing against Russky teams. I kid you not. It’s a heartbreaking read.
The, as now, there were well-heeled well-meaning Lefties in the West who swallowed the whole Commie propaganda thing; comfortable and privileged people who saw all the failings of capitalism and none of the good things.

What makes me sad is that many people will not see this for the rather obvious pro-socialism/Communism paper that it is. Worse still, many others will see that, and agree. Having lived most of my life in or near NYC, I can say that many close friends and family members will fall into that category. I’m the “black sheep” being a veteran, conservative, and like most folks here a climate skeptic. Sigh.

markl

Reduce everyone’s living standard to the lowest common denominator and you have equality……. except for the elites that need to make sure everyone is getting their fare share of nothing (except themselves). With nature not playing the global warming game the warmists are showing their true colors. Or color, red.

High Treason

The term “sustainable Development” is code for a stable population of humans of 500 million. Oh dear, there are 7 1/2 billion of us, which means these ‘caring” Socialists need to eliminate 94% of us!!
Just who gets to make the decision who shall live and who must die????
It is worse-if we abandon all use of fossil fuels, returning to rather primitive technologies, the carrying capacity of the planet for humans is more like 7 million. The green lunacy would mean that 99.9% of us must perish to satisfy THEIR ideals. Ideals which they refuse to discuss. Ideals which have been tried and have failed repeatedly. Ideals they want to shove down the throats of ALL of humanity. Perhaps it will be the end of humans altogether.
An idea to ponder- could it be that the tribes in the Old testament that G-d wanted totally destroyed were Socialists? Socialists are a breed of perverted “humans” that want to destroy society and continually rear up from the ashes if they are not totally eliminated. Judging by the total garbage they are shoving down our throats and our childrens’ throats (LGBT/Safe schools propaganda) , one could be excused for believing we are at End of Days- Revelation type stuff.
This is why we ALL must do what we can to expose the Socialist nonsense that threatens not only our economy, but the entire species itself.

Another Ian

Have any of the proponents of that 94% reduction actually done some deeper thinking of the consequences?
If they’re going to bury the bodies there is an awful lot of energy and land disruption etc.
If they’re not there is an awful lot of emissions
None of which seem to be in the current modelling efforts

drednicolson

And wouldn’t dumping them in the ocean contribute to sea level rise? And disrupt the ecosystem as predators flock to the site for all the free food and leave the prey species to multiply unchecked?

Tom Schaefer

Veto their life/death decisions. Arm up and get family and friends to join you. Go to an Appleseed event.
Now would be a good time to join the NRA or GOA.

ossqss

Agenda 21 or is it 30 now? The economic growth is what keeps half of the planet alive and fed!

John Garrett

Dear god.
Mencken had these people absolutely nailed:
“The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.”

Richard Woollaston

Mencken was correct. There is a general failure to see that liberty entails free enterprise and prosperity, and that efforts to curtail the operation of free markets lead (ultimately) to totalitarianism. People may be seduced into voting for the latter but they will never again be given the opportunity to vote against it. Democratic ttempts to curtail totalitarian policies are branded ‘populist’.

Tom Schaefer

I regret there is no option to up-vote you here.

AGW is not Science

Agreed 100%. And the man also penned the best description of “global warming,” “climate change” or whatever other title they apply to the ridiculous notion of human-induced climate catastrophe…
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.” – H.L. Mencken

Rob

Poverty and starvation is the way the communist have murdered the most of their hundred million victims. This time they’re going for billions which fits nicely with goal of the depopulation loons.

From my tag line and smart remarks file:

Committed Communist will kill a few million – on the way to their goal.
Committed Environmentalists will kill a few billion – which is their goal.

Rob

A lot of different outfits have been able to hook their agenda to the global warming / climate change scam. Including out of control tax and spend governments who can bleed corporations and the public for billions with their carbon taxes.

Richmond

Let’s not adopt this misanthropic nonsense and say that we did.
The worst they will scream is hypocrite, and I can take that as long as I am warm and fed.
I think that I like prosperity.

Merovign

Let’s not and say we didn’t.

My daughter just read “endangered animals” and they had a couple pages that blamed farms, industry and housing for killing off the animals. I had a long discussion with her about how these people really just want her living poorly if not simply dead, while at the same time they live large and opulent lives on beachfront property. Too bad 90% of parents will let their kids be indoctrinated into the human hating ecofascist view.

Bryan Johnson

Once in a while, I shop in a small grocery store in the local college town. The impulse-buy shelf next to the checkout line has a series of chocolate bars prominently featuring endangered animals on the wrappers — not sure what candy has to do with “saving the planet” above virtue signalling. In any case, I sometimes take the opportunity to loudly complain, “You know, I bought that candy bar with the panda on the front and it didn’t taste a *thing* like panda.”
I am, of course, shameless.

Geoff Sherrington

Like painted art, photography is more enjoyable in full colour than in grey scale.
Imaginations work best unrestrained, not clamped into uniform grey. Geoff.

Gary Pearse

“…education and health investments accelerate the demographic transition..”
Hmm…I have a niggling suspicion that this demographic transition isn’t something good for the health and wellbeing of the demographic that I belong to.

Tom Hamilton

This is why we’ve had the slowest economic recovery from 2009 until the 2016 election, since the end of WWII. Its part of the Left’s plan to lower CO2 emissions by restricting economic growth and thus consumption. Its one of the reasons the Sierra Club opposes Nuclear energy, because it fosters faster economic growth.

Tom Halla

This study does seem to admire the economic model of the Khmer Rouge, Zimbabwe, and Venezuela. The poor (or the dead) do not have much impact on the environment in their vision. The minor little fact all those places have suffered environmental degradation just gets in the way of their theory.

RockyRoad

When you run out of toilet paper (as is the case in Venezuela), your impact on the environment (we’ll call it “degradation”) has reached rock bottom.

Tom Halla

The hard core greens want to reduce population, so what is going on in newly third world hellholes is fitting their goals.

Brian Adams

They should trot out Jimmy Carter and his cardigan sweater. We just all need to hunker down and eschew comfort and plenty. Bundle up and live hand-to-mouth, off the land. Of course, the killing of even a single animal for food is a sin – ours is a vegan future, strictly enforced by the Gaian Thought Police.

Walter Sobchak

Why doesn’t Jimmy Carter have the good grace to discorporate?

Brian Adams

Let’s see the authors leading by example.

T. Fry

As so many post eco-fascists have noted, most of the environmental movement has been taken over by communists/socialists for political ends, not for environmental ones.

DiggerUK

@T F. The anti alarmists seems to have been taken over by libertarians and right wingers for political ends, not environmental ones.
Who gains by politicising science, certainly not the truth…_

Bruce Cobb

Warmunist “science” only pretends to be science.

Phoenix44

You conflate science with politics in the usual Alarmist way. Science tells us nothing about what we should do – if anything – about Climate Change. Asking for science to be done properly is not political.

MarkW

The science was politicized long ago.
Funny you only complain about the campaign to take it back.

2hotel9

Leftists always complain when humans refuse to submit to their stupidity.

paul courtney

Digger: Nice try, but if you’re right, if right wingers and libertarians achieve their political ends, the environment will benefit; and if the eco-activists achieve their political ends, far worse for the environment. You are the one favoring politicized science, not us.

Well there is a solution to global warming.
The vast majority of the human population dies and those remaining go back to hunter gatherer life-styles. Maybe a few wheat fields can be used as well but you don’t get to cook much of that into bread.
Go back 12,000 years is the answer.
Either that, or we put an end to this myth-based political science movement.

AGW is not Science

Actually, that is NOT a “solution to global warming,” because human activity is NOT “driving” global warming. Nor is the CO2 level (as it did not in the past). Nor is the minuscule human contribution thereto (endless attempts to “blame” humanity for the supposed increase in CO2 level notwithstanding, they don’t have a good case even for that). So the mass starvation and death will do nothing but kill a lot of people. The climate will keep changing with or without industrialization and fossil fuel use.

paqyfelyc

they don’t care about GW. They just care about “A” from AGW. The ultimate gaol is restauration of Eden: a sinless man stripped of knowledge, back to animal ways, without civilization, without fire, without cloth. But a 12000 years backward in time would be quite an ashievement to begin with.

BallBounces

Write this down: there is nothing climate change cannot do, and no problem socialism cannot solve.

Pop Piasa

Print that on bumper stickers with O’Bummer’s mugshot and the liberals will snatch ’em up.

drednicolson

Rule 1: There’s no problem socialism cannot solve.
Rule 2: When socialism doesn’t solve a problem, add more socialism and see Rule 1.

Sheri

May we safely assume the authors wrote this paper in a tent using solar power to recharge their laptop, when they took time off from growing vegetables, gathering wood, setting up the solar stove, etc?

TonyL

Sheri, assume nothing.
They can grow vegetables and gather wood all they want. The mere presence of items like laptops and solar panels speaks to an incredibly advanced technological society right behind them, and supporting them.
They need to write their missives on clay tablets and then fire the tablets for durability.
That tent better not be waterproof nylon.

Pop Piasa

Woven Hemp tee-pees for them.

drednicolson

Hemp’s a no-go. They’ll smoke all the cannabis first.

Sheri

I figure they can use the laptops until they no longer work. There can be no replacing them without using additional resources. They are also out of luck on the solar panels when they no longer work. I like the clay tablets. After the tent rips apart, they can live in a cave if they want to stay dry, or make shelters out of leaves and vines. They can enjoy the fruits of capitalism for as long as their individual fruits still function. After that, they’re completely on their own with nature.

DMA

“The paper has a point – there is no doubt if the world killed off prosperity and rapid economic growth, CO2 emissions would stop rising”.
This is true. It would ,however, have no effect on atmospheric CO2 growth rate as it is uncoupled from human emissions.

Alan Tomalty

I agree

AGW is not Science

So do I.
It’s just the house of cards within the house of cards.
The supposed amount of increase is first of all a comparison between proxy derived “pre-industrial” CO2 levels and modern instrument derived levels – an “apples vs. oranges” scientific incompetency. Add to that the fact that all of the natural sources and sinks are not being measured at all, and the whole notion of humanity being “responsible” for the (fictitious) amount of CO2 level change is as meaningless as the attempt to blame humanity for the temperature change for which the data is crap, and for which even after all the data manipulations can be accounted for by natural forces if you bother to look for them.

zazove

“no effect on atmospheric CO2 growth rate as it is uncoupled from human emissions.”
What happens to the CO2 that we do emit?

Kristi Silber

Oh, you know…the plants eat it. It’s fertilizer, of course! And the rise in CO2 in the atmosphere is because the animals are panting with ecstasy at all the new plant growth! (…Or some other reason equally benign and idyllic.)

MarkW

Isn’t it fascinating how trolls have to try and convince each other that they are relevant.

Hugs

Since you ask. It ends up in the sea mostly in a few years since there is a huge exchange going on at sea-atmosphere boundary.
I don’t mean this is fully relevant, but you asked. The higher the atmospheric partial pressure is, the more sea is absorbing. The whole atmosphere weighs 1e5kg/m2. The sea under it has a mass more than a hundred times larger. That’s why there is so much space for carbon in there.

Matthew Bruha

A human produces about 1kg of CO2 each day through respiration. That is 7000 tonnes of CO2 each day. How can you say it is uncoupled?

Matthew Bruha

Oops….left off some zeros…7,000,000 tonnes….

DMA

Human caused CO2 flow into the atmosphere is less than 1/30 of natural CO2 flow which varies more than the amount of the human caused flow. The human flow is lost in the noise of the emissions. See: https://papers.ssrn.co/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2997420
and Climate 4 You .com

Matthew Bruha

There are over 7 billion people in the world. Each produces 1kg of CO2 each day, so 7 Gtonnes/day. This is about 2,500Gtones of CO2 per year. From http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget there was only 36.4 Gtonnes of CO2 emissions from fossil fuels & industry in 2016. So humans – just from breathing – are contributing 70 times the emissions than fossil fuels and industry. So, maybe human emissions are being ‘lost’ in the noise of the natural emissions?

observa

Sustainability means the Fearless Leader, the in crowd and I need to be suitably sustained by you lot while I’m working on becoming the Fearless Leader. You just have to have a head on your shoulders to work it out.

donb

And as world population grows, we could eat each other. Solve two “problems” at once.

Tell me donb, you would eat Scarlett Johansen?

Walter Sobchak

If he won’t I will.

drednicolson

It seems some celebrities are more silicone than flesh these days.

DonM

at the risk of censure a better question.
For the good of the planet, would she consider eating me?

They have it exactly backward. It is the Catastrophic Anthropogenic Climate Change narrative that is the key to halting economic growth.

Sara

“…avert the perils of runaway global warming…” Again with the advertising lingo! Stir the pot! Create panic!
The sky is falling! Oh, wait – that’s the wrong play.
That old photo is so reminiscent of Monet’s ‘Gleaners’, I thought it was for a brief moment.
Have these XXXXXs ever taken a hard look at how the Amish/Mennonites manage things? No? i didn’t think so.
The ignorance of these smug, self-serving individuals is astounding. They need to get out more. They need to give up their toys and comfort zones and safe spaces. They also need their own planet. What would Elon Musk charge to relocate them to Mars?

zazove

7,600,000,000 large, avaricious, territorial apes on a fragile blue dot, what could possibly go wrong.

Bruce Cobb

You’re free to leave.

Graemethecat

Pray tell us, O Wise One: exactly what has gone wrong?

zazove

Do you guys know what a petri, ah forget it.

MarkW

The number is well below the carrying capacity.
That blue dot ain’t all that fragile.

MarkW

Do you know what a valid analogy is? Obviously not.

Kristi Silber

Zazove – Don’t forget manipulative and subject to propaganda. Or tribal, “groupish.” It’s always Us and Them, as you pointed out a few days ago. “The ignorance of these smug, self-serving individuals is astounding.”

2hotel9

“The ignorance of these smug, self-serving leftist individuals is astounding.” There, fixed it for you, a simple mistake, we won’t hold it against you.

MarkW

I see that Kristi has perfected the art of mental projection.
I guess I should congratulate her on finally mastering something.

DonM

fragile my ass

paqyfelyc

well, if you fear 7×10^9 animals, be afraid, be very afraid, because an estimated 5×10^30 bacteria, forming a biomass which exceeds that of all plants and animals, with a history of complete sellfishness and disregard to Earth and its inhabitants, are also around.
So if you are right, you should consider bleaching the Earth, for safety. What you think?

joelobryan

“… a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation.”
” further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6).”

This is the ultimate self-licking ice cream cone. Justifying the rationale for their existence with circular reasoning.
IOW, the climate models justify our work, and our work justifies more Climate modeling.comment image
These useful idiots are too stupid to see that their handlers want equality of outcome, and they want governments to enforce it.
Pure neo-Marxism.

philincalifornia

It’s a no from me.
[snip]

philincalifornia

There really should be a middle finger icon
(not getting on your case mods, just having a laugh).

JBom

Many years ago I heard said, “To Stop AGW, Every Human On Earth Must Be Killed. Will You Do It?”
Well, it has taken almost two decades but now the AGW fanatics are proposing the systematic killing of all humans to achieve their perversion.
Ha ha

Sara

That’s clearly a threat in some ways, but do you have any backup for your statement, JBom?
I do not recall ever coming across anything like that at any time between the late 1980s and now.

Killer Marmot

Many have longed suspected that climate change alarmism is a Trojan horse for socialism. This sort of paper throws gasoline on that fire.
Excuse the mixed metaphor.

JPGuthrie

I wonder if those who see climate change as a serious threat to human kind, and are willing to make personal sacrifices to reduce their carbon footprints, as well as try to convince others to do the same (forcibly, if necessary) ever bother to look at the leaders of their movement.
Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe Al Gore was worth about $1 million in 2000 when he lost the election to George Bush. It seems he is worth some $300 million now. Being a climate warrior is quite profitable if you are an Al Gore, but not so lucrative if you are one of the activists living in the trenches.
The various religions of the world emphasize self-sacrifice, living modestly, and proselytizing to others to attract converts. They also vilify non-believers, being taught either to convert them, ignore them, or to destroy them. The followers of these religions vary in the extremities of their beliefs and actions, but the leaders of these religions vary little in their efforts to increase their personal wealth and power.
The followers of the religion of climate change have a lot in common with the followers of other religions. They believe in their faith, because the basic fundamantals are inarguably good, and they believe that by getting others to share that faith, that they make the world a better place.
But what they fail to see about their faith is that it is man-made. And men seldom make things except to profit by them. Here in Japan, where I happen to live, the priests who operate the larger Shinto shrines are of criticized for their wealth. They wear platinum Rolexes, and drive Mercedes Benz cars, their shrines are promoted in ways to get visitors and sponsors to part with as much of their money as possible.
While Franciscan monks are sleeping in their cells, and walking about in sandals, his Holiness and the other officers of the church live and travel in luxury. While the young terrorist is blowing up himself and his innocent victims, screaming “Allahu Akbar”! the leaders of his movement are driven around in Maybachs, dining in Paris, and spending the millions they receive from their sponsors as lavishly as they can.
While Nick Stokes is trying to argue against the obvious flaws in the doctrines of his religion, much like a Scientologist arguing with a layman against the absurdities of scientology, the usual group of culprits are acquiring unprecedented riches.
The more things change, the more they remain the same. The words to the song change with the times, but never the tune.

What Socialists fervently wish for would also turn into their worst nightmares.

drednicolson

The most effective way to torture a Socialist: give him what he thinks he wants, and lock the door behind him.

Sara

I don’t see them so much as a threat as I see how utterly blind these ideologues are to their lack of importance.
They are, indeed, the useful idiots that Lenin and later, Stalin, Hitler, Mao, the Castros, Franco, Pol Pot and whoever else there was who manipulated the fools like the current crop into doing their will and then executed them as soon as they got what they wanted. Once the destruction is underway, the dictator no longer needs the useful fools who followed his instructions, because they are the elites from the Old Order who must be destroyed first. If that doesn’t happen, they become a danger to the dictator’s plan. Pol Pot killed off everyone by having children execute their own parents.
China’s current economic growth is a threat to these moonbeam hunters. China’s goal is to be the Number One economy, and will do whatever is necessary to get there. Therefore, China does not give a whit what the climate change whiners think or say.

Alan Tomalty

Sustainable development is a meaningless term. We could set off all 15000 of the worlds atomic bombs across the world and the earth would only sneeze. Sure humans and all major forms of life wouldn’t survive but the cockroaches who were here 200 million years ago would survive and thus 200 million years later humans would probably again be walking our planet.

Justanelectrician

Good point, Alan. The earth isn’t fragile – we are.

Russ Wood

You mean the grown-up cockroaches aren’t already?
[??? -mod]

SAMURAI

From the very start, CAGW has ALWAYS been a political phenomenon, and NOT a physical one.
CAGW was simply a ploy designed to destroy free-market economies and replace them with massive central government controlled fascistic/socialistic economies through: massive CO2 taxes, global redistribution of wealth, massive CO2 EPA regulations, urban planning, zoning restrictions, massive government subsidies for expensive, unsustainable and inefficient wind and solar government projects, etc…
In a 2008 UN report, the UN estimated global governments could steal $76 TRILLION of taxpayer money over the next 40 years to address this fictitious CAGW sc@m….
Leftists almost succeeded, but alas, facts are stubborn things, and for all intents and purposes, CAGW is ALREADY a disconfirmed hypothesis given the HUGE disparity between CAGW global warming projections vs. reality:comment image
When (not if) this CAGW sc@m is eventually laughed into oblivion, the blowback against the Left will be overwhelming because it ruined so many peoples’ lives on a global scale for a FAKE, contrived and non-existent “catastrophe”…

Alan Tomalty

yes but why do all the politicians believe it ? This hoax has been so successful that i’m afraid we have lost the cause.

philincalifornia

They don’t believe it. Professional liars can easily spot a big lie. It’s just about how useful it is to them. This one was more useful than its daddy – that phony socialism is really, really good for poor people. Too easy this one – scaring people with the weather since the dawn of time,

Steve Fraser

Power.

Don

Yet another example that the CAGW crowd is made up of watermelons: green on the outside, (commie) red on the inside.

Ceetee

We always knew that Tom. It’s just that they knew that we sounded desperate and conspiratorial in the face of their weight of popular opinion as opposed to our weight of evidence. Age old problem this. There were probably people burnt at the stake because they could do things the church couldn’t understand.

Ceetee

I fear this post is badly out of thread. Sorry.

Alan Tomalty

It started in our schools in the 5th century when religions decided to educate the young. They of course indoctrinated them into believing in a God (otherwise known as a pink elephant). then when the idea of constitutions entered human psyche they made sure that the constitution guaranteed certain religious schools. Of course books like the bible always preached poverty and egality. Notice I didn’t say equality. Next along came the Marxists who preached socialism and then when they figured out that true socialism is impossible the socialist governments turned into communistic dictatorships. It is amazing how many socialistic opposition parties exist around the world. The ones that have come to power have quickly turned to dictatorships. We never learn our mistaken lessons from history and are always doomed to repeat them. The world is spiraling in a downward descent into hell. Just ponder for a moment just how bad it is. 90 % of all research on cancer is fraudulent. More than 50% of all scientific papers have invalid conclusions and 43% of those 50% are fraudulent. Fraudulent papers have increased 10 fold in the last 30 years. 99% of all climate scientific reports are fraudulent because they are based on a global warming hoax and what’s worse is that global warming is now taught in textbooks to school children all over the world. Mankind has invented over 120 million different compounds and lets any new compound onto the market without being tested as to its toxicity. Many government agencies even in the wealthiest of countries have essentially been corrupted by the very industry that the agency was created to police. Mankind has turned the world’s oceans into a plastic garbage dump. We have a stone cold killer dictator called Putin who threatens the rest of the world with new nuclear cruise missiles and a smaller tin pot dictator that cant feed his own country (North Korea) who threatens to rain down nuclear weapons on anyone who criticizes him. One country of 1.34 billion people threatens to invade by force its neighbour Taiwan ‘ forcefully executes political prisoners and takes their organs to sell to doctors to perform transplants, and has its stated goal to subvert every other country with its communist party propaganda. This same country has pollution so bad in all its forms that life expectancy is expected to decrease by an average of 5.5 years. In Italy the 4 main mafia groups have revenues of over $ US 200 billion a year. There are anarchists,socialists, 1% ers, drug addicts, people who believe in at least one of the 1000s of internet conspiracies, KKK members,Hitler lovers, racists, and people who believe that welfare is their God given right in every country. Our cities are overrun (on every street corner) with homeless addicts who steal for their next fix. Many country governments in the world are actually connected to underworld mafia type criminals. Other countries are threatened by these criminal groups(Mexico and Italy come to mind). Many countries also secretly undermine every other country by stealing and hacking their computer systems. Many school children around the world are afraid to go to school Ex: Afghanistan. A few countries are failed states. There are insurrections in dozens of countries. We have a world body like the United Nations which has close to 60 agencies or committees with some of them promoting fraudulent practices and even fraudulent scientific reports. There are presently about 30 different huge scams in the world with AGW being the most costly. There is very little investigative journalism anymore because it is too costly for media to conduct and doesnt pad the bottom line. Media are failing all over the world because everybody wants their news free from the internet. In every country drug addiction rates are going up and there are even drugs like Fentanyl with some variations which are 10000 times stronger than morphine which even in the tiniest amount can kill you. In the US alone in 2016 there were 20000 deaths from it. Fentanyl patches are on the World Health Organization’s List of Essential Medicines. And you ask me why am I cynical about life?

Alan Tomalty

http://www.iea.org/etp2017/
The above document is the biggest threat to your wallet and well being that any government agency has ever come up with.

Steve Fraser

I disagree on this statement: ‘The paper has a point – there is no doubt if the world killed off prosperity and rapid economic growth, CO2 emissions would stop rising.’
Hmm so, you are unaware of the natural cycle of CO2 outgassing from warm seas? If you are a firm believer, make a forecast in how Co2 emissions would decline over time, were Humanity suddenly not present.

Hugs

Here we go again. Human annual emissions are much larger than the atmospheric CO2 rise. Thus, oceans are sinking much of human emissions. So how, in fact, warming seas have been emitting CO2 in the decadal scale? The sea surface temp rises so slowly it has no big effect on CO2 balance on average, but yearly fluctuations of course exist.

This will fail for the same reason as Malthusian / Ehrlich failed. More money invested in technology provides replacements and improved outcomes.

drednicolson

The doomsayers always underestimate human ingenuity.

Bruce Cobb

“SSP5 Fossil-fueled Development – Taking the Highway”
Sounds good to me. No more IPCC, no more “carbon” nonsense. CO2 continues to rise, benefiting all life, including man. Wait – that’s not what they mean?

John Law

Sociopaths are us!

Ceetee

Marxists know they are lacking in credibility. They persist because they also know it’s a human condition to be incredulous. That’s the way they designed modern education in those societies who were stupid enough to allow it to happen. Never was about the climate, science, humanity, honesty, integrity etc etc. Ghastly people.

Phoenix44

What this shows is how far today’s socialists have fallen from the original Left. Even Lenin and Stalin wanted to catch up and then exceed the West’s prosperity. Communists wanted everyone to be equally rich, not equally poor. But the demise of the USSR showed that socialism and communism did the latter, not the former. But instead of changing their belief in high tax, large and centralised states, people on the Left kept those parts of Left wing dogma and changed the desired outcomes – hence the push for measures of “happiness” and “solidarity” and “social justice”.
This is a classic example of that combined with the “new science” of building a model using assumptions that will produce results deemed bad and then claiming the middle proves it will be bad.

Ceetee

Yup, barking, sniping, sneering, pontificating yet glaringly hypocritical and verbose people. Just look at the Oscars. There’s a reason why they’re called actors and actresses ( stuff their grammatical edicts). As I said, ghastly people.

DonM

Looking at the Oscars … why does kobe bryant get a bye with respect to the METOO group.
Weren’t they there on the same stage, posing together, making a statement that they are still united and won’t take it anymore. Do you have to abuse an actor or actress to be ostracized … abuse of maids & concierges doesn’t extend to the same level?

JohnKnight

Just wondering; do most people commenting here consider a slave planation socialism? If not, why are you helping our would be slave masters sell their plan as socialism?

hunter

Good point.
However the plantation is the world, the government is the owner, and the climate extremists want to be the straw bosses and task masters.

Scarface

“Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy.
Its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery.”
Enter the climate repairman.

Ceetee

‘ Climate Repairman’. The book Orwell would have written had he stuck around a bit longer…