From the University of East Anglia, home of Climategate, comes this press release claiming a good portion of the world will become drier due to global warming. Just a little over a year ago, at the other climate alarmist outfit in Australia, the UNSW ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, they said a good portion of the world would get wetter:
Global warming will increase rainfall in some of the world’s driest areas over land, with not only the wet getting wetter but the dry getting wetter as well.
This part made me laugh:
“With precipitation climate models and observations don’t always tell the same story regarding regional changes, but we were very surprised to find that our results turned out to be highly robust across both,” said Dr Donat.
Climate Science, robustly telling two different stories from climate models. Below is UEA’s press release today.
Study predicts a significantly drier world at 2ºC
Over a quarter of the world’s land could become significantly drier if global warming reaches 2C – according to new research from an international team including the University of East Anglia.
The change would cause an increased threat of drought and wildfires.
But limiting global warming to under 1.5C would dramatically reduce the fraction of the Earth’s surface that undergoes such changes.
The findings, published today in Nature Climate Change, are the result of an international collaboration led by the Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech) in Shenzhen China and UEA.
Aridity is a measure of the dryness of the land surface, obtained from combining precipitation and evaporation. The research team studied projections from 27 global climate models to identify the areas of the world where aridity will substantially change when compared to the year-to-year variations they experience now, as global warming reaches 1.5C and 2C above pre-industrial levels.
Dr Chang-Eui Park from SusTech, one of the authors of the study, said: “Aridification is a serious threat because it can critically impact areas such as agriculture, water quality, and biodiversity. It can also lead to more droughts and wildfires – similar to those seen raging across California.
“Another way of thinking of the emergence of aridification is a shift to continuous moderate drought conditions, on top of which future year-to-year variability can cause more severe drought. For instance, in such a scenario 15 per cent of semi-arid regions would actually experience conditions similar to ‘arid’ climates today.”
Dr Manoj Joshi from UEA’s School of Environmental Sciences said: “Our research predicts that aridification would emerge over about 20-30 per cent of the world’s land surface by the time the global mean temperature change reaches 2C. But two thirds of the affected regions could avoid significant aridification if warming is limited to 1.5C.”
Dr Su-Jong Jeong from SusTech said: “The world has already warmed by 1C. But by reducing greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere in order to keep global warming under 1.5C or 2C could reduce the likelihood of significant aridification emerging in many parts of the world.”
Drought severity has been increasing across the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and the eastern coast of Australia over the course of the 20th Century, while semi-arid areas of Mexico, Brazil, southern Africa and Australia have encountered desertification for some time as the world has warmed.
Prof Tim Osborn from UEA said: “The areas of the world which would most benefit from keeping warming below 1.5C are parts of South East Asia, Southern Europe, Southern Africa, Central America and Southern Australia – where more than 20 per cent of the world’s population live today.”
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This work forms part of a partnership between between the University of East Anglia (UEA) and The Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech).
‘Keeping global warming within 1.5C constrains emergence of aridification’ is published in the journal Nature Climate Change on January 1, 2018.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4
BONUS! MORE ROBUST UNCERTAINTY:
NASA asks: Will the Wet Get Wetter and the Dry Drier?
Kip Hansen
January 2, 2018 at 7:41 am
I do believe that I posted here regarding this quite a few years ago, 7? 8? that climate models were averaging chaos and I had never seen a mathematical justification for this and it was likely false.
Really?
“Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech)”
SUSTech? In English if something is a bit “sus” it means suspect. Which this study clearly demonstrates.
THANK YOU ANTHONY – I JUST LUV THIS ONE! TOTALLY BUSTED – why this obvious discrepancy doesn’t make front page news – I don’t know – just goes to show how inadequately gutless journalists are these days – although one must keep ones job and to do that – impossible in todays CLIMATE of climate modelling dodgy science – such a damn shame – Lavoisier would be turning over in his grave!
Lavoisier. Are you sure?
The Roman Empire collapsed due to a range of factors which can be reasonably attributed to climate change.
From conditions similar to now, the existence of which Mann and his friends denied, the climate across the Roman world became colder and drier.
https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/10/30/16568716/six-ways-climate-change-disease-toppled-roman-empire
yes rd50 – Lavoisier is well known as a proponent of the ‘scientific method’ – empirical evidence – not guessing as in long term climate model predictions – last paragraph but not just below – he’s well known for his fight for only using evidence in science – he’s not known as the father of chemistry –
http://enlightenment-revolution.org/index.php/Lavoisier,_Antoine_Laurent
sorry – too quick – he not JUST known as the father of chem
I am not sure as to when I should panic, or when to plan my vacations.
What happens if the global warming is 1.6 degree?
What happens if it is only 1.4 degree?
Do we all die, or what? Should I pack my snorkel, or my skis? Or just step off a cliff? Will the cliff have snow?
How can I possibly organize my life if I don’t know when to panic?
They want you to panic NOW! Give them all your money NOW! Then you will be saved…at some time in the future, after you die!
Sounds very very familiar!
Studies issue forth in a continuous stream prophesying both more wetness and more dryness (generally, not talking about regions) in approximately equal numbers. Here’s another recent one on the wetness side:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/12/171222090302.htm
It actually doesn’t matter what flavour of doom they prophesy. It could just as well be an invasion of blue cats from Jupiter. As long as it is in the correct threatening tone of subdued but persistent alarm, outrage and implied advocacy.
An analysis of 50 years of rainfall data in arid regions by researchers at Cardiff University and the University of Bristol in the UK has shown a decline in rainfall intensity, despite an increase in total rainfall. The findings run counter to research that suggests that global warming causes heavier rainfall, because a hotter atmosphere can hold more moisture, and warmer oceans evaporate faster, thus feeding the atmosphere with more moisture.
http://www.meteorologicaltechnologyworldexpo.com/en/industry-news.php?release=d2cdf047a6674cef251d56544a3cf029
I predict that the passing of time will result in weather.
I predict that the passing of more time will result in climate.
We must act now.
FWIW Andy: If precipitation increased at the same rate as saturation vapor pressure, that would carry an additional 7%/K or 5.6 W/m2/K from the surface into the atmosphere. Heat can’t possibly escape from the atmosphere to space at this rate: 1 W/m2/K faster is ECS of 3.7 K (AOGCMs); 2 W/m2/K is an ECS of 1.8 K (EBMs), and 3.2 W/m2/K is the no-feedbacks climate sensitivity of 1.15 K. So all AOGCMs predict a slowing down of the rate at which the atmosphere carries moisture from the boundary layer into the free atmosphere where it can precipitate. In AOGCMs, the rate of precipitation in AOGCMs rises about 2%/K and the relative humidity over the ocean rises about 1%, enough to slow evaporation by 5%. If climate sensitivity is lower, precipitation can rise a little faster than 2%/K, but not 7%/K
What happens over land? To a first approximation, one might expect precipitation to rise 2-4%/K. Evaporation could rise a 7%/K, unless relative humidity rises or winds slow. (The rate of evaporation is proportional to under-saturation and wind speed.) Away from the oceans, the increase in precipitation is unlikely to keep up with the increase in trans-evaporation. (This is also the reason why wet areas are likely to get somewhat wetter and dry areas drier.)
Now, we certainly can’t trust AOGCMs to get these changes right or even the same in small regions like California. However, the global trend is likely to be modestly more rain over land – negated by more trans-evaporation over land. Wetter, but drier. This might help you sort through the alarmist noise.