The End of “The End of Winter”

Quip by Kip Hansen

 

end_of_winter_lg

Happy New Year to All!

and an end to the “End of Winter” madness of 2017.

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218 thoughts on “The End of “The End of Winter”

  1. All you guys in the NE of the US…..

    Enjoy your “global warming” New year.

    They are forecasting a freezing 28°C here in Newcastle, Australia tomorrow :-)

    Will be tough to cope with. ;-)

    • Were envious, at minus 24*C, 4:16 am CT, we reach for our sheepskin bomber caps when the wind is blowing. Thankful for the wool clothing. Maybe the Great Lakes will freeze over again as they were 92% frozen over the winter of 2014.
      Best wishes to all in the New Year from Thunder Bay on the North Shore of Lake Superior

      • My friends along the north shore (Rossport) tell me that, when the lake freezes, it gets a lot colder because you lose the warming effect of the lake.

        Right now, Mars and the North Pole are warmer than Winnipeg. link

      • A frozen lake removes evaporation level loss, that’s 30% of Lake Michigan’s loss.

        In 1986 the lake level was over our ferry dock apron.

        Best wishes from Washington Island, Wisconsin, through Death’s Door. Happy New Year.

      • Doug, did you see the latest satellite data off Lake Michigan, probably looking at 25% ice by New Year, (NOAA predicted 26% for full year for all the Great Lakes). Hope your dock survives being fully submersed.

      • My grandpa was a commercial fisherman in Gills Rock and I drove the blue train on Washington island while I was going to college. Also was a deckhand on the boat that went to Washington Island.

      • Commie Bob. That is a great link. Now, why is anyone in Canada the least bit worried about global warming?

      • We are in line to see the earliest freeze-over of Lake Erie, ever. New record (-22 C) for Toronto last night.

      • Let’s take a moment to consider the intelligence of voters in Ontario.

        They spent $36 billion on green energy between 2006 and 2014 and raised electricity prices 48% since 2010 while crippling their manufacturing base and borrowing so much money that they now pay $1 billion a month to service their mounting debt.

        And this week? Toronto was the coldest it’s been in 57 years.

      • Chip, I can’t easily explain the insanity either, from the relative warmth of ~freezing in Central England.

        The most optimistic interpretation is that Canada is blessed to be wealthy enough to afford such excursions of the political imagination. If most people were poor, they would throw the global-warmers out tomorrow. On balance, it is a good thing when we can still afford to indulge ourselves with the political stupidity de jour.

      • Can’t resist.. Grew up in Toronto, live in Ottawa. It is cold, damn cold. I bet my CO2 emissions will go up and cause more global warming.

    • Put a couple more shrimp on the barbie and crack open a few more cans of XXXX. I’m sure you will manage somehow or other.

      • Actually, I’m not much of a beer drinker…. anymore.

        Nice few glasses of Clare Valley cab-sav with dinner tonight, though.

        A nice pepper steak fillet. + vege. then leftover Christmas pudding and brandy custard.

        Life is tough down here, I assure you :-)

      • Life is tough down here, I assure you :-)

        You are holding your map upside down again, are you not? :)

        A reddit user has published this map – for the fish obviously. It is inside out, although it is not, it is almost only a convention to draw maps looking from above and not below.

        https://i.imgur.com/mvDxY_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

        We’re are at +2°C, overcast. Once the ghg droplets go away, we expect a (un)healthy -10°C and the bomber caps and fur hats will be aired. Greenies keep inside and enjoy the coal heated, city owned energy delivery.

      • LOL. “Prawns” are bait for city folk to buy at horribly inflated prices.

        Commercial shrimper at Charleston, SC, couldn’t sell two or three per pound shrimp for being refused by the locals as too tough, so he marketed them in NYC at lobster prices. Meanwhile Charleston natives cast nets for 48 quarts per day limits.

        Bubber shrimped at night, and Miss Susie spent all day in the sink cleaning them and putting them up, a year around staple.

      • Doug Huffman
        Ha! I was delivering a load of Nestles coffee creamer to a refrigerated warehouse in Southern MA. In the door next to the one I was in a driver with a load of tomatoes. The inspector refused the tomatoes because they were “checkered”, meaning in various stages of ripeness. The driver called up his boss who sent him down to a place in NYC. Driver said “they’ll take anything there”.

    • Hey, one the Michigan Wisconsin border warmed by the lake waters, we are 26c right now! (04:25 thursday morning) err, well, really it’s -26c.
      Hope my truck starts.

      • AGW-Climate Change is The Chameleon Hypothesis. It can explain any and all possible observations of weather.

        … and that is precisely why Climate Change is pseudoscience. Junk science.

        Climate change is now firmly in the same place as astrology predicts our individual fates. Entertaining? Yes. Worthy of scientific study? No.

      • Griff, I know that many have had this discussion with you and yet you never seem to hear.

        You do know that when something cannot be proven false that it is not a scientific theory it is a religion, right?

      • Think of a horror if Griff is correct, by the time all of the Arctic ice disappears (as repeatedly predicted by CAGW) the rest of the N. Hemisphere will be in the depth of a new ice age

        Only Vladimir Vladimirovich will be laughing. s/c

      • Grif, come on. You are more intelligent than that comment portrays. A loopy jet is weather totally within the realm of natural variability. What might be a better focus is to look at equatorial wind changes teleconnected to Arctic systems.

      • You mean there is only so much COLD to go around., right Griff. !

        I’m sure most people would prefer that cold to stay in the Arctic…..

        (except you, because it gives you chance to bed-wet about Arctic sea ice.)

      • And lets not forget, the last major Jetstream event was in 1977, just before the COLDEST years in the last 80 or so years.

        ie. ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with “climate change™”

      • Really, Griff? Time magazine is your source? And if you actually read the article, it says they don’t have any idea what is really happening.

      • Thanks Griff. You always manage to shake out some good, useful info (from others) as an indirect consequence to a dare like Andy’s map from the 1977 event. That’s a keeper.

    • Hi Andy,

      I wanted to first wish you and yours a wonderful Holiday Season and the very best for the New Year.

      I recently returned from sunny Thailand (plus 30C) to sunny Alberta (minus 30C) and have had a difficult time adjusting to our Canadian version of “global warming”.

      You may recall our conversation of November 11, 2017, excerpted below.

      The atmospheric cooling that I originally predicted (4 months in advance) using the Nino34 anomaly has started to materialize in November 2017 – more global cooling should follow. I can only predict 4 months in the future using the Nino34 temperature anomaly, and 6 months using the Equatorial Upper Ocean temperature anomaly.

      Global atmospheric temperatures have reacted a bit later than usual to the drop in Nino34 temperatures, but are slowly returning to their “typical relationship”. This delay in the typical relationship is probably due to the large magnitude of the latest El Nino, such that the excess heat is taking longer-than-usual to dissipate from the ocean through the atmosphere and into space. See the email conversation with John Christy, located just above on the same page of wattsup.

      The sharp decline in the UAHLT global atmospheric temperature anomaly in November 2017 should be followed by even more cooling, down to about 0.0C as I predicted on November 11. I would really like to be wrong about this further cooling, because we are all freezing in most of North America, Prescient people are taking their brass lawn ornaments indoors, such that the extremities do not freeze off.

      In the longer term, I expect moderate global cooling, as was experienced from ~1940 to ~1975, to resume. I predicted in 2002 that this moderate multi-decadal global cooling would re-commence by ~2020 to 2030, and this prediction is looking increasingly probable, since solar activity has crashed in SC 24 (and will probably also be very low in SC25).

      I hope to be wrong about this last prediction – both humanity and the environment suffer in a cooling world. This human suffering will be exacerbated by the actions of our corrupt/imbecilic politicians, who have greatly compromised our electrical grids due to their over-reliance on intermittent wind and solar energy systems.

      Best personal regards, Allan in Calgary

    • Isn’t it summer in Australia now? So is 28C=82F a big surprise? If it were 28F= minus 3 C, that would be something worthwhile posting.

  2. -19 C here and the whole house just went *boom* as this is the coldest it has seen since winter of 2015 (last winter being so mild even snowfall measured in a few inches the entire winter). Not as dramatic as frost-quakes, just annoying.

    I’m ready for spring.

      • Ice is less dense than water and pops nails and boards as it freezes and expands.

        I use an outdoor hot tub year around, and can hear the rocks of the Niagara Escarpment, that towers over my house, freezing and cracking and popping all night long.

      • Twobob, I live just north of Chicago. One night a few years ago when I got home from work it was minus twenty F and the wooden beams in my house were creaking and moaning in the cold. It got down to 28 below zero F that night and I could hear the wooden roof beams in my house cracking. (I talked to a builder and he said it was normal for new construction and to ignore it.) I had an medium age oak tree in front of my house the trumk of the oak tree split open in the cold. But the oak tree lived.

      • Also contraction of the building as the exterior cools. I once worked as a grid operator, and the building housing the control room would let out an resounding boom once temperature got below minus twenty. We would wait in great anticipation for the boom to watch any newbies jumping out of their seats . Being a grid operator and loud booms did not go well together especially as the control room was in the middle of a large electrical substation. Sadistic fun.

  3. It Snowed on the Tongariro Crossing yesterday in New Zealand and it caught some trampers out .
    Just past the longest day but we did have a frost on New Years 30 years ago and it burnt off a lot of corn crops .We call it maize here .
    Strange weather as New Zealand has been surrounded by warm tropical water that moved down from the north for the last 40 days and we probably have had the warmest December that I can remember till last night . We were seeing temperatures 28 to 30 degrees C but they have cooled and the warm water may be moving to the east .

  4. It is 3 AM in Jackson Wyoming and from the comfort of my home 7000 miles away I am watching 2 men with shovels and a mechanical digger building a huge snow mountain in the Town Square (where we strolled in autumn sunshine just 2 months ago on our coach tour).
    What are they up to? Building a huge snowman for the kids? And isn’t the modern world just amazing?

  5. “Arctigeddon” and “A December to remember” is what Joe Bastadi has been calling it. One good thing about a sustained arctic blasts like this is that come spring the numbers of insect pests will be reduced somewhat. Here in north central Indiana my feeder and seed blocks are much appreciated during this kind of weather. The birds really go through the seed.

    Been using the fireplace a lot. Gas central heat or not, nothing warms better in this kind of cold than a nice fire in the fireplace. At night we turn the thermostat down to 65 deg. F and climb into a bed with flannel sheets, down comforter, and wooly bedspread. Thankfully we have no livestock or outside pets to worry about.

      • ren: If the polar vortex is broken, I and many others here in southern Ontari-owe would appreciate it if you would please fix it. It’s -25C here in Owen Sound this morning which is close to the lowest recorded temperature for this date.

        One benefit I have noted of the below-normal temperatures for the last week or so has been that I haven’t seen a single article in the MSM “explaining” how, why and when AGW is destroying the planet, That would most certainly be the case if the temperatures happened to be any amount above normal for this date. It’s almost worth enduring the cold … although I still generally prefer July.

        Best wishes for 2018!

      • Trevor Falk

        Delivered to the Tenneco plant in Owen Sound many times. Go over at the Bluewater Bridge then up Hwy 21. Is Hwy 21 open down to Hwy 7? That road is something else in the winter.

      • RAH: Ah, yes – Hwy 21 was apparently closed for much of yesterday and Boxing Day – one of those squalls or series of squalls that hangs around for hour after hour, fed by winds with a westerly component over Lake Huron (which isn’t frozen over yet). It was just plain clear and cold overnight, with not much wind. I think the highway is open this morning.

      • I’ve had to drive all the way to London on the 401 then cut north and come into Owen Sound from the east to make it.

      • Trevor Falk I am very sorry, the forecast does not provide for a change. Look at the current over Alaska.

        All the best in 2018!

      • ren: Dang! Not even if all those good people up in Alaska fired up their snowmobiles at the same time, coincident with bears farting … or anything like that?

        Since the vortex is broken and the current over Alaska is causing all the northern cold air to flood south, then it follows that the Arctic is going to run out of cold air any minute now. This cold air will have to be replaced, and if it can’t get any colder than this, then it’s logical to conclude that the replacement air will be warmer, so the next thing you know, Greenland will be melting. It’s worse than anybody thought!

        Trevor (aka massieguy)

      • Curious George: Good question that came to my mind, too. I’m just a retired injuneer, not a so-called climate scientist. I hope ren cycles back and answers it.

        I see now that, in his reply at 4:07 to AndyG55, Griff kindly provided a reference to an article from 2014 that apparently explains how cooling these days is also made worse by CO2 emissions. I thought I was just having a little fun with my comment at 7:07, not realising that I was not just making up something silly. It makes me wonder if I have ESP or something … .

        Trevor (aka massieguy)

      • TRM: Ontari-owe’s debt is twice that of California on a per capita basis.

        Much of this is the result of huge long-term incentives to produce so-called “green” electricity (wind and solar). This has been so successful, production wise, that we have significant periods of time with surplus electricity that is sold at a loss into NY and Mich; sometimes Ontari-owe actually PAYS neighbouring utilities to take the surpluses.

        And of course at the same time we have to build and then operate gas-fired generators to respond to minute-by-minute, hourly, daily and monthly changes in demand, and to keep the lights on when the wind isn’t blowing and the sun isn’t shining.

        All of this is so we can show the world how much we are reducing CO2. Except that isn’t working out so well according to the Auditor General of Ontario-owe and the Professional Engineers Association. Turns out there are no measurable CO2 reductions as a result of expenditures of tens of BILLIONS of dollars on this nonsense, mainly because gas units need to operate at all times to follow the load, including during periods of surplus on the system. The only measurable difference is in a) debt and b) electricity rates.

      • Massie guy, yes, a wobbly jet stream..

        NO nothing to do with “climate change™”

        Neither grifff, nor the guy he quoted, have any sense of actual climate history.

        For them, everything starts in 1979, well before they were born.

    • RAH ==> When my kids were little, we always had dairy goats and chickens, sometimes pigs, to worry about when the temps dropped well below zero . . . . even though we kept them in the barn. In extremis, we hung heat lamps over a corner of the stall for the goats.

      • Gail, a poster some here will remember, has had to bring their kids (young goats) into the kitchen of the house to prevent them from freezing at times. And that’s down in N. Carolina.

      • I must say that this year is reminding me of the 60s and 70s. I hate cold. I can tolerate heat and humidity just fine. Give me water and shade and an afternoon nap and I’ll make it.

    • We removed our wood burner as too messy, dribbling bugs and sawdust carrying the wood in and ashes to be cleaned out.

      Our electric co-op subsidizes electric heat for base load to allow idling the DG sets through the night. We do peak load reduction with 2.5 MWe DG sets.

      December’s 4200 KWh cost ~$550. ~66% heat, 33% utility (largest utility load is the 6 KW hot tub outside).

  6. Kids have been playing pond hockey for 2 weeks and it was -5 deg. F in Tewksbury, MA this morning…that’s a Feb. temperature in a cold year. One thing I’ve noted in the last 8 or so years is that, once we get snow, it stays until the end of Feb. Probably won’t see my yard until then.

  7. 1.7 Celsius here now (12:30)(Newcastle upon Tyne, NE England) with some snow. Because we are near the North Sea, our climate here is fairly stable. In the last 12 months, maximum was 25.2 Celsius, minimum -5.7 Celsius.

    • it was -1C in SW London at 8am this morning, there was about 2 mm thick ice in one of our garden plant pots.

      • Low temperature for SW London, but that is English weather, mostly unpredictable. Enjoy, my favourite weather, apart from sunny summer days is cold and sunny winter days.

  8. Blame the sun.
    Sunspots warm atmosphere directly with some of the energy accumulating in the oceans surface layers. This and the next one or two winters are coinciding with the end of the weak sunspot cycle SC24 when the sunspot count is very low – ergo : not much warming to be expected.
    However, towards the second half of the cycle solar storms tend to increase in the numbers and intensity, there was above average activity at beginning of December, when the Arctic is plunged into total darkness the polar geomagnetic storms can exert their influence on the weather, with a delay up to a month (‘spliting’ of polar vortex).
    I was expecting some warming effect, but to my surprise the result is opposite to my expectation. What I found it was not a warming but cooling effect on the N. Hemisphere temperatures. Therefore I could claim that finding is not result of a confirmation bias: “the tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one’s existing beliefs or theories”.
    For more details see:
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/12/26/another-positive-feature-of-global-warming-less-record-breaking-cold/#comment-2701800

    • Nonsense. The strength of the equatorial surface winds blowing East to West under La Niña conditions is quite capable of disrupting Arctic pressure systems and creating loopy jets that bring cold air down into normally warmer sections of continental land masses. Are you suggesting that those equatorial surface winds are caused by the Sun? Freakin how?

      • Ms Gray
        Kind of you to show some interest, I hope you had a good Christmas and you are managing ok with the cold spell.
        It would help if you read stuff in the link provided, do some analysis of available instrumental data of the extreme negative monthly temperatures anomaly and the geomagnetic activity, else discussing a conjecture without support of data analysis is simply time-wasting for both of us.
        Have a Happy and prosperous New Year.

      • “… do some analysis of available instrumental data of the extreme negative monthly temperatures anomaly …”

        Do you mean just central and eastern US and much of Canada Vuc?

        Because 90% of the rest of the NH is not negative…..

        Also Nick Stokes website (Moyhu.com) shows that thus far through December the anomaly (+0.331) is running above November and is also above June and July…

        https://moyhu.blogspot.co.uk/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#L1

      • Toneb

        if you are not in favour of global warming
        then, should you not be describing the cooling pattern over north America as being positive, rather than negative?

      • “December the anomaly (+0.331) is running above November “

        OOPS. !!!! You have a funny idea what “above” means.

        UAH Nov = 0.36ºC

        RSS Nov = 0.367ºC

        I guess we will see what reality says, come the new year.

      • So Toneb it looks like, given the anomaly displayed in your graphic, the Arctic is merely a -20c bone chilling cold instead of a -35c freeze your nuts off cold. Is that about right?”

      • This is the website you want for SSW’s Vuk….

        http://p-martineau.com/ssw-animations/

        Not as pretty as yours tho!
        Re your link:
        “But now for a surprise: shock & horror, solar activity not only warms but also cools temperatures (?!)”

        If in the winter this does not surprise me, as Strat PV disruption is not guaranteed to bring cold Arctic plunges or Pc easteries. The -AO/-NAO can be west-based (more towards Greenland/Canada) and this allows mild SW winds into the UK.
        Like I say. The Solar influence of the Strat is there and can sometimes (when aligned with other influences) tip the balance and cause a Strat PV disruption (as you see on your vid link). This downwells some 4-6 weeks later (usually but can be immediate) to develop a Tropospheric -AO/-NAO. As your findings show. It is merely stirring around the warm/cold in the Trop and does not take any heat away.
        PS: and no advection of warm air into the winter Arctic does not “cool” – as that air is very humid (WV/cloud GHE dominating) and the cold air moving south is radiating less efficiently and allowing SW into the oceans. The 2 processes approx balance.
        A SSW only happens 1 – 2 times per NH winter and often not at all.
        They are very rare in the SH as the PV is to strong and the topography is not conducive to driving major planetary waves.

      • “So Toneb it looks like, given the anomaly displayed in your graphic, the Arctic is merely a -20c bone chilling cold instead of a -35c freeze your nuts off cold. Is that about right?””

        Yep, when cold air spills out of your fridge when you open the door, warmer air from the room replaces it …. which then takes a while to cool when you re-close it.
        Same process, plus that replaced air is humid and that will need to condense out before the air will properly cool at the surface.

      • This is the website you want for SSW’s Vuk….

        http://p-martineau.com/ssw-animations/

        FI….

        Re your link:
        “But now for a surprise: shock & horror, solar activity not only warms but also cools temperatures (?!)”

        If in the winter this does not surprise me, as Strat PV disruption is not guaranteed to bring cold Arctic plunges or Pc easterlies. The -AO/-NAO can be west-based (more towards Greenland/Canada) and this allows mild SW winds into the UK.
        Like I say. The Solar influence of the Strat is there and can sometimes (when aligned with other influences) tip the balance and cause a Strat PV disruption (as you see on your vid link). This down-wells some 4-6 weeks later (usually but can be immediate) to develop a Tropospheric -AO/-NAO. As your findings show, it is merely stirring around the warm/cold in the Trop and does not take any away.
        PS: and no advection of warm air into the winter Arctic does not “cool” – as that are is very humid and the cold air moving south is radiating less efficiently and warming over oceans. The 2 processes balance.

    • “Toneb is the one who told everyone he’s a 32 years meteorologist then couldn’t name the law of physics written for governing gas
      hence atmospheric
      temperatures.”

      if you say so.
      How about you tell us.

    • Right now the forecast for my area of N. Central Indiana indicates we’ll not see 32 F (0 C) until January 6th. We have had sub zero weather in the past but I can’t remember it being sustained like this for quite some time. Average December temperatures for my area are high 38 F. Low 23 F. For January, which is typically our coldest month the averages are a high of 34 F and low of 19 F.

    • Grif already is there (see his comment post above) with a #FAKENEWS post from Time.com “explaining” how climate change causes cold weather.

      • Like I said before. Only the most gullible believe cold like this is caused by global warming. Only the most blind could not see that what has been claimed will happened has not and is not.

      • RAH, Griff just wants the chance for more bed-wetting about Arctic sea ice.

        He will totally ignore the freezing cold elsewhere.

        You watch. :-)

      • Please note. This is a prediction.

        Because of this jetstream moving all the cold to NE USA, it is quite likely that Arctic sea ice maximum this winter will be less than last winter.

        We can look forward to spectacularly ignorant griiff rants, bed-wetting about Arctic sea ice disappearing, even though it will still remain well above the extents of the MWP and RWP and the first 7000-8000 years of the Holocene.

        When you use the extreme extents of the LIA and late 1970s as your reference..

        …. there is almost ALWAYS going to be less Arctic sea ice.

  9. Thanks for the global weather round up lads! Bit nippy here in SWFla. this am (68*F).. think I’ll wear the short-sleeve jumper to start the round. Sounds like some of you live where the cold could freeze the balls off a golf tee…good luck, hang in there, Global Warming should be back come spring. Happy New Year to all. Best be off now, Tee time approaches.
    Cheers
    Bahamamike

    • And soon the “climate refugees” from the north will be swarming down our way to wait out the cold. Luckily they bring their money with them and leave a lot of it here.

      • Those “climate refugees “ from Canada better bring lots of CADs since the toll booths
        at the Mackinac Bridge posted that the CAD was discounted 50 percent against the USD.

      • No way in heck. Too flat and boring in Florida. Will be staying on the west coast. Best weather in the world. More sunshine and no humidity. Politics stink though…

    • Wearing women’s clothing to play golf? If you get a taste of the cold front you will be roasting your chestnuts over an open fire.

    • Mike, just played 10 holes at Carnoustie, temp greens and we use prayer matt’s in winter.
      Brilliant blinding sunshine and plus 5 C.
      Three layers and ball bouncing 50 feet in air. But who cares?

  10. This appears to be a repeat of the severe cold we suffered through in the late 70s and early 80s.
    I hoped for some winter warning when the media first started talking it up, and it allowed vines to be grown in Prince Edward County, but this cold is just miserable. I find myself asking how the people who built my house in 1835 survived winter, and it explains all of the stoves and flue pipes that had been in use.

    • I was in Prince Edward County last weekend. Had to drive to Tweed (60 mile round trip) to pick something up and It was snowing hard enough that I spent the whole trip in 4 wheel drive. My parents house in Northport was built in the 1700’s and their house is also bear to heat when the N/W wind blows off of the Bay of Quinte and it’s really cold , typically that means most of the winter. I was living in Picton during the blizzard of 1977 when we got more than 6 feet of snow coupled with 40 mph winds over a three day storm. It was a storm to remember but I really don’t want to see it again. There was so much snow that the Sandbanks provincial park didn’t open until the end of July and even then there were still snow banks under the trees.

  11. The forecast high temperature today here near Concord NH is 5F. The coldest December highs I’ve recorded here are:

    mysql> select year(dt), min(hi_temp) from daily where month(dt)=12 group by year(dt);
    +----------+--------------+
    | year(dt) | min(hi_temp) |
    +----------+--------------+
    |     2003 |         23.6 |
    |     2004 |         19.5 |
    |     2005 |         21.4 |
    |     2006 |         26.0 |
    |     2007 |         23.8 |
    |     2008 |         16.9 |
    |     2009 |         18.1 |
    |     2010 |         18.9 |
    |     2011 |         25.8 |
    |     2012 |         25.0 |
    |     2013 |         13.8 |
    |     2014 |         23.5 |
    |     2015 |         25.1 |
    |     2016 |         11.9 |
    |     2017 |         15.2 |
    +----------+--------------+

    That 15.2F was yesterday, so it’s already been colder than all but two recent years!

      • Doug,

        Things in December look a bit better balanced if I look at cold nights – as long as I include the first year of my data:

        Or we’ve crested and are heading down.

        Dec 27th and 28th had sub-zero lows, the NWS forecast is calling for the 29th, 30th, 31st, 1st, 2nd, and 3rd to be sub-zero too. Five days in December and three for the start of January. (Sunday AM is forecast to be -1F, so it might miss.) I’ll figure out the previous longest stretch of sub-zero lows here. I’m sure it won’t be eight days.

        BTW, I wrote about Feb 2015, which I thought would be the most extreme cold month I’d see. I may be wrong! See https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/03/08/1934-2015-a-tale-of-two-februaries/

  12. This morning (12/28) the Northeast was burning oil for 30% of their electricity, even though they are a stones throw to the Marcellus where billions of cubic feet of natural gas are there for the drilling. The bad news is the cold will last and get even colder next week.

    Why burn dirty oil instead of clean natural gas? Well, the greenies won’t let anyone build any pipelines because it encourages the use of fossil fuels.

    So aside from running really clean diesel generators /s, someone is going to get some really big electric bills in a month.

    But no worries. It will never happen again due to global warming (or did global warming cause this arctic outbreak? I can’t keep it straight).

  13. It’s been cold here in Alberta near Edmonton for a few days now. It’s -19 C / -2 F this morning. suppose to drop down to – 33 C / -27 F over night. For those south of us in the northern states, it’s likely to get worse before it gets better. It’s not suppose to warm up around here until Monday of next week.

    • Rob I can imagine how cold it must be. I was in your neck of the woods (Ardrossan specifically) on October 1st and I was already standing in a foot of snow. Being from Ontario I was still wearing shorts. :-( But we had fun anyway.

  14. Any word on the ‘fast disappearing’ poley bears? Increasing, decreasing or just living’ the dream?

  15. When a big blob of cold air moves south from the Pole it needs to be replaced, and often you see a sort of backwash of milder air sucked up to the Pole. On this occasion the milder air came north through Bering Strait. This is a cause for rejoicing among Alarmists, for they can look up there and see temperatures +15 of normal. (Maps from Weatherbell site.)

    https://sunriseswansong.files.wordpress.com/2017/12/arctic-20171226-gfs_t2m_arctic_1.png?w=700&h=

    Within 72 hours the mild air vanishes from the arctic map, and Alarmists must swiftly look away and turn elsewhere to get their jollies.

    https://sunriseswansong.files.wordpress.com/2017/12/arctic-20171226-gfs_t2m_arctic_13.png?w=700&h=

    It is so much better to drop the politics, and just watch with wonderment. Partly the mild air cools over the arctic because there is no sunshine, and partly because the milder air rises. But when it rises it too must be replaced, and in this case it looks like it sucked air north from East Siberia. This blob of cold is crossing the Pole via “cross-polar-flow”, and very well could be continuing on to Canada.

    Look out below.

    • By the way, we are at a balmy -3 F in southern New Hampshire this morning, (-19 C). To some degree we are protected by the unfrozen, warming waters of the Great Lakes, unless the winds come straight south via “The Montreal Express.”

      If the lakes freeze over, like they did a few years ago when even Niagara Falls froze, then look out, New England.

    • Didn’t help much at Summit Station in Greenland:
      Conditions
      -50 C -58 F
      6.0 knots
      78 degrees ENE

      As of 12/28 13:23

  16. Well in Joe Bastardi’s daily update it looks like we here in North Central Indiana are not going to get a break for at least a couple weeks.
    The better models are showing we will be running greater than 15 degrees F below average from Dec. 29 through January 3rd.
    January 4th through January 8th we will run 11 to 13 degrees F below average.
    January 9th through the 13th our area will run about 8 degrees F below average.

  17. -39.6 right now in my backyard, happy to report that there are apparently NO warmth trapping greenhouse gases in my backyard.

      • Although most of us know how to convert F to C and vice versa, it’s the time the US of A changed over to more practical C.

      • French were on your side in the war of independence, they gave you Statue of Liberty, the symbol of US of A and pride and joy of every American who ever visited New York,
        Anders Celsius wasn’t French, he was a Swedish astronomer, physicist and mathematician.
        while Daniel Gabriel Fahrenheit was Dutch-German-Polish physicist.
        If I were an American I would change forthwith to Centigrade (after Celsius). s/c

      • “French were on your side in the war of independence, they gave you Statue of Liberty…”
        That was before the French turned into pansies and had to be rescued, twice…Just say’in.
        “Anders Celsius wasn’t French, he was a Swedish…”
        Fine, we don’t need no fancy Swedish units here in Murica.
        “…Daniel Gabriel Fahrenheit was Dutch-German-Polish…”
        Sounds like he has the kind of pedigree most Americans can relate too. Works for me. :))

      • The argument for staying in F for temperature is you have smaller increments between whole degrees, so you can express the temperature more accurately in whole degrees. 20C to 25C is 5 degrees; the comparable in F is 68 to 77 or 9 degrees.

        The rest of the metric system would make a whole lotta sense, but we tried it once and it didn’t work. Today our kids can’t even understand the current system so going metric would no doubt cause such terror in their little safe worlds as to really make it hard.

  18. Sultry arctic air has pushed out the indigenous cold air, which is now fleeing to the south. Peoples of the northern hemisphere: will you not open your hearts to welcome the arctic air climate refugee??!!

  19. Living in the snow belt south of lake Erie for most of my life I was used to not seeing the grass all winter. Have lived in Wyoming for the past 21 years and last year was the first time we did not see the grass all winter here. This year may be a repeat. By the way, folks who have lived here much longer have to go back to the 80’s to recall similar circumstances.

  20. Kip, you can now walk on frozen ground from Dallas to Northern India.

    I think a relay would be a really good publicity stunt

    • BTW, you’d better button up your vest when you reach Ottawa. It was -30C this am with a wind chill of -37C.

    • GAry ==> Really? Heading north up-and-over? Let’s get some Greenpeas to try it — keep ’em out of our hair for a while….

    • Like the old “Hands a cross America” stunt.
      Hands a cross the Arctic.
      N. Oreskes, M. Mann, J. Wishart, J. Cook, S. Lewandowsky can stand at the pole. Shoot, it might even make Jock happy to finally reach the North Pole.

  21. Griff’s deluded and il-informed comments are always good for a chuckle or two….but this one was a classic: Time magazine as a cited source….which included material from the Washington Post for support ???

    Really?

    Stunning research there Griff. Big-time deep stuff.

    Next time, why not go all out and give us something from McPaper (USA Today) as your support citation. Throw in a paragraph from AP’s Seth Borenstein to totally impress us.

  22. Blame Russia! Siberia is the cradle of cold air masses that are created by lack of sunlight, distance from heat distributing ocean currents, and low humidity which is the real GHG. This allows clear cold nights to efficiently radiate any warmth to space. Those cold air masses move slowly because of the extreme density of the air. But they eventually move and bump into the low pressure coming off the Gulf of Alaska, which pushes it North skirting most of Alaska. It now dives South into the Rockies and Midwest.
    A perfect re-enactment of the weather patterns that created the great glaciers, of the periodic ice ages that will be our great climate challenge when one returns at some future point. The midwest is covered with glacial ridges from the forming and retreating of these great behemoths of the past.
    So not climate change. Normal weather patterns that have challenged the northern hemisphere for millennia.
    We only think it is unusual because we see less of these patterns during warm periods. When enough snow and ice builds up on the land areas of Siberia and Northern Canada, it becomes the dominant pattern for a winter that could extend through most of the year.

  23. Brrrrrrr!
    Put another log on the fire…….
    It has warmed up to 40F in the Great NorthWet (Seattle/Tacoma WA) and is raining off the beautiful 4″ of snow that fell on Christmas eve. Ugh!

  24. I told you guys :
    on average we already started globally cooling,
    since about 20 years ago

    looking at minima it is not much, but it is beginning to add up now
    (by my count ca. -0.01K per annum since 2000)

    I have some interesting results from Anchorage. Let me know if anyone is interested to see them.

    • henryp ==> I wrote a piece about Alaskan climate some time ago here. If your data is “comment short” put it here or else email it to me at my first name at i4 decimal net.

  25. American friends, while you are sitting buried under mountains of snow, time to contemplate empting your b-c wallets, unless you’ve done already. Judging by this interactive chart b-c in the near future is on downhill slope (disclosure: have no, had no and do not intend to have any holding)

  26. kip Hansen
    …always wanted to ask you?
    are you in any way related to the Hansen who started the AGW nonsense?
    If yes, how/?
    it seems no one is interested in Alaska
    but here is a tip

    How would you divine (average) the solar polar field strengths from 1973 – 2014?

  27. It’s now called the John Holdren Vortex. It is an event where cold is caused by global warming and the Obama WH waves it off only after being called out by fact checkers on the science. It’s a vortex of pseudoscience that blows over quickly.

  28. Whenever some northern area gets a mild winter, alarmists there are quick to blame “global warming” and worry that the Greenland ice cap will melt and flood coastal cities. But a warm spell in winter is usually due to mild air moving northward from the tropics toward the pole, but since the total mass of air over the North Pole is roughly constant, that has to be balanced by a southward movement of cold air at some other longitude.

    My sympathies go out to those shivering in brutally cold temperatures east of the Rockies, but here in Salt Lake City it’s sunny and 45 F (about +7 C), heading to 50 F (+10 C) tomorrow, and the nearby ski resorts are complaining about too little snow.

    I really don’t mind being able to drive around on dry roads during Christmas week, but I’m not going to “blame” the mild winter (so far) and the wildfires in California on “global warming”. Hopefully the jet stream will flatten out soon, and send a nice January thaw to the Midwest and Northeast. You guys deserve a break!

  29. I think I finally have all this “caGW” stuff figured out.
    When Ma’ Gaia gets cold, she puts on her CO2 blanket.
    When Ma’ Gaia gets hot, she throws off her CO2 blanket.
    (Or puts in a call to Eros…)

    • Yep, Its a strange sort of blanket that keeps you warm when its cold, but lets you cool down when it hot. ;-)

      But hey, the old “CO2 blanket” analogy has so much going for it….. NOT.

    • The butcher next door in Embarrass, MN, was injured when he backed into his meat grinder. He said it didn’t hurt much, but he got a little behind in his orders.

  30. Vukcevic @ 8:58 am
    The French were simply using Americans to fight their long term enemy
    “on the cheap”. Sent a few officers and guns and multiplied their effect
    by using our troops to fight their enemy. The effect did help the us Colonials
    but only delayed the defeat of the French.
    I do appreciate the Historical effect, but it was mainly to insure that we
    would continue to ship wheat to France.
    The LIA caused very weak cereal crop production, and the French must
    have their daily bread.

  31. “The end of winter”… I despise that phrase. I am in NE MN “the icebox of the nation” where it is currently -15F outside which is actually a bit warmer than it has been. Christmas day, we were at -30F when I woke in the morning! Not that this is an unusual occurrence, the timing is just a bit early. My solution to this biting cold is to throw more wood in the stove and smile, it’s 74F in my little cabin right now, and I am doing just that! Living in the middle of a forest in this northern climate, I have seen extremes of all sorts, and it has been that way for as long as I can remember. I would predict that barring some gigantic catastrophe such as the eruption of a super-volcano, or nuclear annihilation, that it will stay this way for the foreseeable future regardless of how much doom-saying or hand-wringing the climate change crowd displays. There will always be extreme weather, there is nothing un-natural about it. Find something more important to worry about.
    Great website. Long time reader, first time commenter.
    Have a happy new year everyone!

    • CJ ==> Welcome aboard, sir.
      Myself, I’ve only recently retired from sailing the Caribbean for the last dozen years while doing humanitarian work there — and settled back into the old family home in the Mid-Hudson Valley of NY State. Had almost forgotten how cold it could be here. Just this afternoon, I had to drive down the road to “rescue” visiting family from Florida who has decided to go for a walk — in single digit temperatures with a strong breeze blowing – wind chill about 10 below.

  32. been colder and more snowy in the UK than usual, but now its back to normal. 3C, grey and raining….where’s my vitamin D pills?

  33. Vuc

    I had a look at the coldest month anomaly CET that you made.
    I think it is valid proxy for central England, but be careful. You cannot take this globally.
    Obviously your cold is coming from the same source at regular intervals, seemingly correlated with colder currents.
    For incoming energy, i.e. energy that has come through the atmosphere, you can easily discern a sine wave, with a wavelength of 86.5 years. See earlier comment.
    According to my various calculations the warmest (turning) point was reached in 1971 and the coolest turning point was in 2014.

    Similarly, it would be wrong of me to think that the minimum T here in Pretoria where I live must be representative of the whole world….although initially I thought [from my results] that this was the case and that there was no global warming….

  34. Salvatore, La Nińa is doing its job. The wind is along the equator towards the Philippines.

    Pacific delivers snow to the northern US.

    • This has nothing to do with snow .
      But some of you might find this of interest and may have some ideas what is causing this .
      Note the very warm Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand on Rens map above..
      This has caused very warm weather over most of New Zealand .Probably the warmest December for many years .Last year the surface sea temperature was quite cold but this year is very different and it is causing a lack of much needed rainfall over most areas of New Zealand .Most of our weather comes from the south west except when tropical cyclones push down from the Pacific in our summer.
      The few fronts that have come through have come through have brought little moisture with them so the theory that warm air carries more moisture is not evident .Normal rainfall has stopped with only some sporadic thunder showers from mid November ..
      All of the northern and western areas of the North Island and the whole eastern area of the South Island are close to drought conditions but there could be some relief next week . It normally dries up in February and March but tropical cyclones may bring welcome rain in those months .

  35. Watson Lake, Canada
    Current Conditions – F | C As of 11:55 AM on Friday 29 Dec 2017 (Local Time)
    Local Reporting Station
    -42C
    Feels Like: -42
    Wind Chill: -42 Ceiling: NA
    Heat Index: -42 Visibility: 16.09k
    Dew Point: -47 Wind: 0kph
    Humidity: 77% Direction: 270W
    Pressure: 1046.06mbar Gusts: NA

    Please pay attention to the pressure.

    • ren
      it seems to me that when SSN is up the absolute solar polar magnetic field strengths are down and when SSN is down the solar polar field magnetic strengths are up.

      You agree?

      • I am worried that you might not understand or that I might be wrong…

        Clearly you can see that the average solar polar magnetic field strengths can be given by a simple binomial from 1971 to 2014?
        I don’t like SSN too much as it is too subjective, beginning with: how big is a spot and what magnification do you use> etc

        either way, my thinking is that the next 43.5 years [from 2014] will basically see a mirror image of the ‘scissors’ to confirm the Gleissberg of 86.5 {87} years.

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