Guest ridicule by David Middleton
“Film at 11” is a US idiom from television news broadcasting, where the viewers are informed that footage of a breaking news story will be screened later that day.
Eric Worrall’s brilliant ridicule of a Toronto Now article about imminent human extinction due to climate change elicited an even more ridicule-worthy comment (H/T Tony McLeod), citing a yet-even more ridicule-worthy blog post on an even more imminent threat of climate-driven extinction.
There really is no way to describe this sort of nonsense without using a word that rhymes with petard. The author, Sam Carana, presents this table to itemize the sources of 10.02 °C by 2016.
So… According to Mr. Carana, 1.62 °C of warming has already occurred and an additional 8.4 °C of warming will likely occur over the next 9 years.
Life is too short to tackle Mr. Carana’s predictions about 8.4 °C of warming over the next nine years; however, the 1.62 °C of warming from 1900 to February 2016 (cherry pick much?) can be easily and quickly shot down in flames.
February 2016 rise from 1900 (1.62°C)
The magenta element at the top reflects the temperature rise since 1900. In February 2016, it was 1.62°C warmer compared to the year 1900, so that’s a rise that has already manifested itself.
Following Mr. Carana’s link…
A polynomial trend can reduce variability such as caused by volcanoes and El Niño events. The graph below was created with the NASA L-OTI monthly mean global surface temperature anomaly, which has a 1951-1980 baseline, and then with 0.29°C added, which makes the anomaly 0°C in the year 1900 for the added polynomial trend.
This gives an idea of how much temperatures have risen since the year 1900, with a rise for both February and March 2016 showing up that was more than 1.5°C, as also illustrated by the image below. The trend further points at temperature anomalies that will be more than 1.5°C (from 1900) within a decade and more than 2°C soon thereafter.
Show of hands… How many readers can identify the most egregious error in Mr. Carana’s claim of 1.62 °C of warming since 1900?
If we look at the raw values, we get:
- January 1900 -0.39 °C
- February 2016 1.34 °C
This actually works out to 1.73 °C of warming… It’s worse than previously thought!!!
Setting aside the fact, that point-to-point measurements are not the way temperature changes over time are determined… What has happened since February 2016?
If we look at the raw values, we get:
- February 2016 1.34 °C
- September 2017 0.80 °C
This actually works out to 0.54 °C of cooling since February 2016… It’s better than previously thought!!!
If we look at GISTEMP from a scientific perspective, we would throw it out… Short of throwing it out, we would look at the trend exhibited by the data, in order to determine how much warming it shows since 1900.
GISTEMP LOTI exhibits a trend of just under 1 °C of warming per century.
While the fact that Mr. Carana’s assertion of 1.62 °C of warming from 1900 to February 2016 conclusively demonstrates that he is either scientifically illiterate or dishonest to the point of disregarding anything he says, it doesn’t necessarily disprove the rest of his “theory”… 8.4 °C of additional warming over the next 9 years, would require a trend of 9.3 93 °C per century, 10 100 times the trend of HadCRUT4… nearly 10 100 times the trend of GISTEMP LOTI. Quite frankly…
If I find the time and patience, I might tackle Mr. Carana’s forecasts… If they are half as bad as his hindcasts, it might be fun.
Addendum
RCP8.5 (bad science fiction) only yields 5-6 °C of warming from 1900 to 2100.
CO2 levels rise to 936ppm by 2100 making the global temperature rise by about 5-6°C by 2100
https://sos.noaa.gov/datasets/climate-model-temperature-change-rcp-85-2006-2100/
Human extinction by 2026!!! Women, children, and third world countries hardest hit!!
I already wrote that, but a correct prediction of +5C in less than 10 years (while nobody expect that) is a promise to turn billionaire in the said time. Worth the effort.
IF you are not nuts, of course.
David Middleton Thanks
The IPCC scenarios are inconceivably improbable when actual fossil resources are included.
Roger Pielke Jr highlights the work by Justin Ritchie and Hdi Dowlatabadi:
The Politics of Inconceivable Scenarios
https://theclimatefix.wordpress.com/2017/11/16/pielke-on-climate-7/
Why do climate change scenarios return to coal?
Justin Ritchie, Hadi Dowlatabadi, Energy 140 (2017) 1276e1291
https://cedmcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Why-do-climate-change-scenarios-return-to-coal.pdf
Another 2017 paper indicating that both RCP 8.5 and RCP 6.0 seem to be wildly exaggerated:
The implications of fossil fuel supply constraints on climate change projections: A supply-driven analysis
Wang, J., Feng, L., Tang, X., Bentley, Y. and Höök, M., 2017.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/303621100_The_implications_of_fossil_fuel_supply_constraints_on_climate_change_projetions-A_supply-side_analysis
Even though such “forecasting” as this is silly, the US National Science Board and National Science Foundation will get themselves worked up in to sex orgy mode.
So Mr. Carana will easily win funding of $5,000,000 dollars.
“Life is too short to tackle Mr. Carana’s predictions about 8.4 °C of warming over the next nine years”
You’d think that somebody from the Green Blob might take Carana aside and explain how ridiculous his ‘calculations’ are in the real world and how bad such stupid wolf crying is for their cause.
Okay, so as I understand it, 11 years from now, we’ll all be frying because the temperature will go from a normal 32F to 50.036F? That sounds like a pretty normal temperature run in the Spring. In fact, the high today in my kingdom (3 miles west of Lake Michigan 35 north of Chicago) was 62F, so 50.0something F would be pretty normal for this time of year.
Obvious questions:
Isn’t that 11 years one solar cycle?
Is that guy nuts?
Does he have nothing to do except make himself look silly?
Are the magnetic poles going to flipflop before 2026?
Should I stock up on popcorn and beverages for the denouement?
I hadn’t realised it was tony mcleod, of Queensland, Australia, who posted a link to the same table in figure 2 in another thread. Rib tickling stuff! Thanks for the laugh tony. If you had any credibility before that post, it’s totally gone now.
Lol, yeah, that’s where David found it.
If you really want a laugh then…wait for it… we sterilise the surface too by leaving 400 nuclear reactors unattened. lol
I used to work with someone here in Aus that is from Romania. He worked in Romania in a nuclear power station during the Y2K crossover. What you claim here is nothing based in reality, and nothing happened at that power plant in the Y2K transition.
Being a self proclaimed leftist, did you vote to ruin your state?
Welcome to the Thanatozoic.
Which, I should add, they did nothing to “fix” the Y2K “problem”.
“tony mcleod November 25, 2017 at 12:06 am
Welcome to the Thanatozoic.”
https://allpoetry.com/poem/13267145-A-Brief-History-of-Earth-by-Oneforallseasons
I thought I’d coined it but googled it I saw that earlier mention of it.
Thanatos – Greek for death
“Tony mcleod November 25, 2017 at 1:26 am”
Greeks, responsible for most words you and I know and use, so no surprise you thought you were the first and then failed.
I did go and look up the parts and come up with the Thanatozoic Era – the Death Era – following on from the Cenozoic.
The potential effect of homo sapiens could need more than a new epoch. So I’m claiming it as original.
“tony mcleod November 25, 2017 at 9:37 pm
So I’m claiming it as original.”
Have you submitted your claim to the appropriate authority and in the appropriate literature? Was it peer reviewed? I mean, you are not just making it up are you? You can backup your claim with facts, right?
Who is th “appropriate authority and in the appropriate literature”.
Isn’t an entry here good enough?
Btw, I’m not that happy about being the guy who named the end of the world.
“tony mcleod November 25, 2017 at 10:42 pm
Btw, I’m not that happy about being the guy who named the end of the world.”
Please tony, *STAY* in Queensland. New South Wales has enough cognitively challenged people, mostly politicians, already.
You didn’t.. you just parroted another anti-science fool.
Prophets frequently end their caeers by msling the classic porphet’s error of predicting specific things in a short enough horizon that their predictions can be tested.
But even by that standard Carana is a self parodying fool.
Great thing about this prediction is that it is only 9 years away.
I was thinking that too…this guy must have been sick that day and missed the memo.
Figure 2, “Potential global temperature rise by 2026” reminds me of the many auto mileage “enhancers” that can be found at the local auto parts store. Install all of the on your vehicle, add up all the claimed mileage increases, and your mpg goes to infinity. (I’ll stop short of claiming that you’re producing gasoline.)
I’ve had very good results on an old car (more mileage and more pep) with Red Line fuel system cleaner. It cleans off the injectors. It’s $14 on Amazon at:
https://www.amazon.com/Red-Line-Complete-System-Cleaner/dp/B000CPI5Z0/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&qid=1511660410&sr=8-3&keywords=red+line+fuel+system+cleaner
“Show of hands… How many readers can identify the most egregious error in Mr. Carana’s claim of 1.62 °C of warming since 1900?”
Show of hands: How many readers think that a “global average temperature” is physically meaningful and/or accurately reflects “climate”?
And on those grounds alone it’s all apples?
Just wait…before this is over it is gonna be a rhubarb.
“And on those grounds alone it’s all apples?”
Whatever that means.
Sorry. It’s a calloquial saying: ‘she’ll be apples’ means everything will be fine and there will be no problems.
Googling shows it’s from the rhyming slang: apples and spice = nice.
In other words, you are saying ” Meh, move along, nothing to see…”
And why shouldn’t warmistas make completely ridiculous and over the top predictions?
Look where the fear mongering has got them so far.
Look how much their dismal record of forecast accuracy has cost them in credibility within the minds of the credulous.
By all indications, they have nothing to lose, and everything to gain by keeping the ridiculousness knob turned up to somewhere between “Three Stooges” and “Overweight Mimes”.
Not so hot down under
https://www.iceagenow.info/australia-freeze-destroys-180m-worth-crops/
Yeah, frigid.
http://www.bom.gov.au/web03/ncc/www/awap/temperature/meananom/12month/colour/latest.gif
Polynomial predictions are usually polynomial predictions.
If I had a nickle for every time I predicted a future stock price based on a polynomial prediction….
I’d be broke.