From the way media and climate scientists portray the global air temperature this past year, you’d think there was only one place to go – up. For example, Gavin is holding on to hope:
With update thru September, ~80% chance of 2017 being 2nd warmest yr in the GISTEMP analysis (~20% for 3rd warmest). pic.twitter.com/k3CEM9rGHY
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) October 17, 2017
Next year will be interesting.
However, oceans rule the temperature of the planet, and as this most recent SST shows, there’s a lot of cool water and a clear signature of La Niña shaping up off the coast of South America:
Source: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
Ron Clutz of Science Matters writes:
September Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are now available, and we see downward spikes in ocean temps everywhere, led by sharp decreases in the Tropics and SH, reversing the bump upward last month. The Tropical cooling in particular factors into forecasters favoring an unusually late La Nina appearance in coming months.
HadSST is generally regarded as the best of the global SST data sets, and so the temperature story here comes from that source, the latest version being HadSST3.
The chart below shows SST monthly anomalies as reported in HadSST3 starting in 2015 through September 2017.
The August bump upward was overcome with the Global average matching the lowest level in the chart at February 2015. September NH temps almost erased a three-month climb; even so 9/2017 is well below the previous two years. Meanwhile SH and the Tropics are setting new lows for this period. With current reports from the El Nino 3.4 grid sector, it seems likely October will go even lower, with downward moves across all oceans.
Note that higher temps in 2015 and 2016 were first of all due to a sharp rise in Tropical SST, beginning in March 2015, peaking in January 2016, and steadily declining back to its beginning level. Secondly, the Northern Hemisphere added two bumps on the shoulders of Tropical warming, with peaks in August of each year. Also, note that the global release of heat was not dramatic, due to the Southern Hemisphere offsetting the Northern one. […]
Summary
We have seen lots of claims about the temperature records for 2016 and 2015 proving dangerous man made warming. At least one senator stated that in a confirmation hearing. Yet HadSST3 data for the last two years show how obvious is the ocean’s governing of global average temperatures.
They have lied to us before, why should we trust them now?
With all the artificial “hockey stick” adjustments to the past (cooler) and present (hotter), I wonder if we should potentially be alarmed by a minor cooling trend in the present and near future…
“Yet HadSST3 data for the last two years show how obvious is the ocean’s governing of global average temperatures.”
I’m not sure what that means. Arithmetically, most of GAT is SST.
In march I was saying: “Given the El Nina peaked around December 2016, this suggests that there’s around a 70% chance of another La Nina peaking around February 2018.”
http://scottishsceptic.co.uk/2017/03/03/el-nino-versus-arctic-temperatures/
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov
Not sure why people are so stupid about this. Look at the buoy locations. Its IMPOSSIBLE to have accurate data when 97% of all temp readings come from the equitorial band or northern hemisphere. Plus consentrations near population centers. I called the NOAA and their are NO methods to balance out the lack of southern data.
These are not the buoys you are looking for. Here are the drifter buoys.
Thank u for that. I wrote to the noaa and still have the email. These drifter buoys were not part of their analysis. that said this would make more sense.
First of all, Anthony, you can’t just plop facts and real-world charts in front of the Greenbeans and Warmians. You will make their heads explode, and I don’t want to clean up that mess.
Second, I see that the ENSO meter is teetering on the edge of -0.5, which says the water is definitely cooler, which is — well, it’s just unfair to them.
Third, the sun is still blank, showing low activity and I guess this solar minimum is going to last considerably longer than the previous one that started – what? 11? years ago and didn’t ramp up as expected. So does that mean buy more bird food and stock the pantry more? Or just make sure I have enough chocolate chips for five batches?
I’m still not sure what the quarrel has ever been about, other than the grasping greed for grant cash, which will probably never end until or unless one of those blighted souls in the Warmian section gets buried under the snow falling off his roof in July (in the northern hemisphere, of course). And even then, because denial of reality is a mental disorder, he’ll just say it was caused by more global warming.
So I really do appreciate your efforts to keep this stuff in front of us. It appears that winter in my kingdom may have an early start, per what the Farmers Almanac and the Old Farmers Almanac are saying – snow in November: not unusual, but not necessarily wanted so early. I hope that some day, this utter nonsense involved in turning science that can benefit all of us into political claptrap will come to an end. Thank you.
I always enjoy understatement.
that warmth is devilish it seems at first it was hiding in the oceans rather than warming the atmosphere for the last 20 years and now it is morphing into cooler temperatures to cover its tracks…….one thought from my youth it seemed sodas held their co2 pretty good when very cold but lost it fast when warmer, the oceans being cooler means less co2 being outgassed from the oceans.
Steven Mosher October 28, 2017 at 9:12 am
1. If we continue to dump c02, we expect temperature to generally increase
if we hold everything else equal, then we expect between 1.5 and 4.5C of warming
for a doubling of c02, OVER THE LONG TERM.
–
–
Has to be called out.
For vagueness.
Fudging.
If we hold everything else equal i.e. ignore all the other real things that happen in the world but OK make it a textbook science problem
–
–
CO2, doubled, time irrelevant (constant conditions remember)
Increase in temp equals X C of warming.
But X is not known??
We have knowledge of all the conditions, starting and finishing, constant remember.
Time is irrelevant, remember.
Formula for effect of CO2 doubling is known, yes?
Hence X can have only one known answer.
We don’t expect anything, we don’t use expectations or guesses.
We do not guess constraints on our guesses, 1.5 to 4.5 ???
Why constrain a guess so precisely?
We use the science if we are going to make scientific statements.
We use guff when we want to make political, self fooling statements.
All that knowledge and still only a range as wide as the Pacific Ocean.
“All that knowledge and still only a range as wide as the Pacific Ocean.”
And “they” STILL keep missing, except by a fluke.
Mosh needs better aim with his wee.
The science is settled. It’s just the numbers that keep needing reworking.And sometimes the signs. Just the numbers and the signs. That’s all. And the dates. Sometimes the dates don’t work and we have to use the Mann-fudge-o-matic.
Then it all comes together like grants at Christmas time!
1 degree C is 34 degrees F. The temp has not changed that much. We’ve always had 90+ degree summers. This seems to say summers should be 120+ degee summers. I don’t know what this graph represents.
Oh, I thought they got boiled off already.
This post is about a one-off drop of about 0.2°C in the September HADSST3. August and earlier were quite warm. NOAA SST showed a much smaller drop of 0.06°C. That still makes September the coolest of 2017, but just above Dec 2016. I think the heading of this post has it wrong. Let’s see what October brings. Globally, it is pretty warm.
“Globally, it is pretty warm.”
RUBBISH, as usual Nick.
It is cooler than all but a short period during the Little Ice Age. and the period 1950-1980.
There is NO CO2 warming signature in the satellite temperature data.
There is NO COI2 warming signature in sea level rise.
There is NO CO2 warming signature ANYWHERE. !!
Just a SLIGHT natural solar and ocean based warming from the COLDEST period in the last 10,000 years.
Tell me Nick, why do you always bury an insidious LIE inside everything you post ??
Do you have NO SHAME ???
I rarely bother replying to your stuff. You don’t read, you don’t think; just reflexive, all-purpose shouting.
This is a thread about a reduction in HADSST3 going from August to September, which brings it to a low point for two years. It isn’t about the last 10000 years, or the LIA. I pointed out that NOAA shows a smaller reduction, and so far, October 2017 is pretty warm. I linked to the daily temperatures for October. Your responses show no awareness of any of that. They make no contribution to the discussion.
“I rarely bother replying to your stuff”
ROFLMAO
I’m not surprised.
You KNOW that
There is NO CO2 warming signature in the satellite temperature data.
There is NO COI2 warming signature in sea level rise.
There is NO CO2 warming signature ANYWHERE. !!
Running and hiding is what you do.
“Your responses show no awareness of any of that.”
I am very aware that a cooling trend appears to be starting……. are you ???
“October 2017 is pretty warm”
There’s the LIE again. Or is it just ignorance?
Current temperatures are COOL compared to most of the rest of the last 10,000 years
WHY do you continue to push your LIES , Nick. !!
” It isn’t about the last 10000 years, or the LIA.”
CON-veniently IGNORED, hey Nick. !
Come on, I DARE you to admit that the current temperature is only just a small amount above the COLDEST period in the last 10,000 years.
Can you tell the truth………, or NOT
Nick’s absence from the TRUTH is duly noted. !!
Keep your SHAMELESS support of the AGW agenda against modern civilisation, Nick.
Keep your SHAMELESS DENIAL of the “cool” reality.
Stick it where it belongs.
“Globally, it is pretty warm.”
Sorry Nick, I don’t bother reading blatant AGW propaganda sites.
They have NOTHING to offer to rational discussion.
The warmest temperature data set last month was UAH satellite TLT v6.. The rate of warming in UAH TLT v.6 over the past 10 years (from the start of 2008) is faster than that of HadCRUT4 and only slightly slower than GISS: http://www.ysbl.york.ac.uk/~cowtan/applets/trend/trend.html
Is UAH now a part of the ‘big conspiracy’?
Yawn, Duuur still doesn’t know about El Nino transients.. duuur !!!
Not the warmest by far.
MWP, RWP, Holocene optimum, all warmer by far.
Come on Duuuuuur, I dare you to admit to the fact that the world is only a small, highly beneficial amount above the coldest period in 10,000 years
You can do it.. don’t be a worm !!
The rate of warming in UAH without the recent El Nino spike (non-anthropogenic, nothing to do with CO2
….. has been ZERO since 2001 at the end of the last El Nino.
The ONLY warming in the satellite data has come from NON-ANTHROPOGENIC El Nino ocean effects.
If you are “duuur” enough to think El Ninos are caused by humans.. then they really is nothing that can help your ignorance, is there.
“This post is about a one-off drop of about 0.2°C in the September HADSST3”
WOW…
That’s nearly a QUARTER of the natural warming in the last 100 or so years..
……… LOST in one month !!!!!
WOW !!!
Holy Guacamole! Was that a Mastodon I just saw traipsing across my backyard! Best call Algore and let him know…
2nd warmest year… lol.
Got any proof of the green house gas effect at the macro level in a 70+% nitrogen environment?
That’s weird. I didn’t write the post above which is attributed to “TA”. I guess there are two of us now.
It would be nice if the left would at least come to the realization that science is not a perfect art but full of hypothesis. Money now drives the climate science and they are not inclusive of differing thoughts on their “settled” science.
Amazing how many Doomsday True Believers and Pay-To-Pollute Carbon Credit Con defenders there are.
I remember the Ice Age, Overpopulation, and Continents Will Sink Into The Ocean from Earthquakes fads in the 70’s. No different than late night radio ghost story, UFOs, Big Foot, Chupacabra crowd.
Why does Gavin look so much like Mann? Seriously… anyone?
ugh, compare Gav’s stations used in analysis, comare it to the output anomaly map and you see all the warming to set records for the last few years come from places where they have no station data.
This is a ridiculously bad state of affairs. It’s certainly not science.
Image link
you gotta be flipping kidding me, GISS is a bad joke and what is interesting is, now the other surface data sets track GISS #collusion
Yes the anomalies may be smaller but the trends..
Of course this is in part because they use the same utterly flawed and massively adjusted underlying data
Look at how much red comes from thin air.
[???? .mod]
Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear Smear
Zeke warming data as it moves south when they lose stations when they are supposed to cool it 1 degree per degree south of latitude move
BEST is anything but
D*mn this global warming!!!!
Liars i live in north east i can name 40 years hotter then last 5.
Guys no one believes u anymore.
Excerpted from above published commentary:
“YUP”, and the temperature of the ocean waters rule the variable atmospheric CO2 ppm quantities, ….. both the bi-yearly and yearly ppm variations.
And iffen those “cool waters” materializes into a La Niña then it will result in a noticeable decrease in the Average 2-4 ppm Yearly Increase in Atmospheric CO2.
Given cool to cold La Nina temperatures, the ocean water in the Southern Hemisphere will “curb” their summertime outgassing of CO2.