Bloomberg: Leading Climate Fund Drops Tesla

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

Tesla is “overvalued” according to the Nordea Global Climate and Environmental Fund.

Tesla Is Dropped by Climate Fund That’s Beaten 97% of Its Peers

By Jonas Cho Walsgard

3 October 2017, 00:13 GMT+10 3 October 2017, 08:01 GMT+10

Tesla Inc. is overvalued, according to a climate fund that has beaten 97 percent of its peers.

“We don’t see upside,” Thomas Sorensen, who manages the Nordea Global Climate and Environmental Fund, said by phone on Thursday. “What’s needed in cash flow generation to get to the current valuation — we don’t see that happening.”

With more and more climate-friendly products and services coming to market, investors are having a hard time valuing new technology. Tesla’s 60 percent share rise so far this year is testament to investor enthusiasm even as it reported losses in both the first and second quarter. But the turmoil created by the electric car’s rise that roiled traditional carmakers now means greater risk for all manufacturers.

It’s going to be a race to the bottom for the whole industry,” he said. “In this big transition period, it’s very tough to point out the winners and the overall profitability of the sector. The risks are too high.”

Read more: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-02/tesla-is-dropped-by-climate-fund-that-s-beaten-97-of-its-peers

This is not the first time investors have expressed concern about competition in the electric car market. Back in July this year analysts expressed concern about Tesla’s ability to compete against the likes of Volvo.

… Tesla will soon have more competition coming from major carmakers, Barclays Plc analyst Brian Johnson said.

We’ve long argued that Tesla as an EV company is not truly disruptive, in that legacy carmakers will eventually wake up and offer fully electric vehicles by the early 2020s,” …

Read more: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/07/08/electric-car-maker-tesla-share-price-plunges/

Earlier today WUWT reported about how Tesla “narrowly” missed their Q3 model 3 delivery target by 83%.

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TG
October 3, 2017 6:03 pm

Good he’s been at the trough for too long!

Sara
Reply to  TG
October 4, 2017 7:35 am

Okay, so short Tesla and go long on Exxon or some microchip producer. AI and byte storage are expanding exponentially faster than Tesla’s slow-creeping production line.

wws
Reply to  Sara
October 4, 2017 11:38 am

I agree with the man quoted, insofar as Tesla is overvalued and I don’t seen any upside, either.
But I think that because i believe Elon Musk is an extremely clever grifter who’s built an empire out of bilking the government, and I also believe that his act has gone on a bit too long, and the curtain is about to ring down.

October 3, 2017 6:11 pm

There was a Dot-Com bubble. Maybe a Co2-bubble? Time will tell….when it is not financially viable.

Bryan A
Reply to  Duncan
October 3, 2017 9:19 pm

Certainly an EV bubble unless they figure out how to recharge them from nearly empty to full in 5 minutes and have a 250 mile range.
Since even Musk can’t seem to figure it out, he might be destined to becomment image

Bryan A
Reply to  Bryan A
October 3, 2017 9:21 pm

They also need to recharge around 1000 times, a 250,000 mile battery life should be a requirement

Streetcred
Reply to  Bryan A
October 3, 2017 11:14 pm

Did Musk (rat) ever get around to building all of those fast-charge stations that he has already collected the carbon credits for ?

Reply to  Bryan A
October 4, 2017 7:20 am

I was reading an American classic car magazine a couple of weeks ago, I think I have mentioned this here before but it is worth repeating. In the 1890’s cars were becoming popular and there were three types of propulsion available: Steam, Electrical and Internal Combustion. Steam fell out of favour because it took too long to get the water boiling, this left Electric and Internal Combustion. Electric was favoured by ladies due to the difficulties of hand-cranking, but the cars only had a 100 mile range When starter motors were introduced on IC powered cars it put the kiss of death on electrical vehicles. The range of electrical only propelled cars is not significantly greater 120 years later and according to a friend of mine who is a motor mechanic, the contents of a modern battery are highly toxic. As far as I am aware charging a battery at a high current to reduce charging time reduces the lifespan of the battery, it needs trickle charging to ensure its longevity. I am also fairly confident in predicting that battery technology is not going to improve with relatively cheap materials.

Gerry, England
Reply to  Bryan A
October 4, 2017 3:21 pm

I saw an electric car the other weekend. It was in a museum. A 70s idea during the oil crisis that never caught on. Going back to the 1890s, the same battery technology is used in cars today.

Jean Meeus
Reply to  Duncan
October 3, 2017 11:19 pm

Again that Co2 error. It is CO2, not Co2.
Co2 would be a molecule consisting of two atoms of cobalt!

Greg61
Reply to  Duncan
October 4, 2017 4:40 am

CO2 bubble? I’m suddenly thirsty for a beer.

October 3, 2017 6:17 pm

When one has a business model depending on subsidies, political change is a risk. I would also state that a Tesla is more virtue signalling for the wealthy green than a real transportation choice.

Wally
Reply to  Tom Halla
October 3, 2017 11:29 pm

Musk:
the Bernie Madoff of electric cars.

Reply to  Tom Halla
October 4, 2017 2:04 am

Practically speaking Musk’s business model depends on generating cash flow with pre-paid reservations for cars he can’t produce. The deposits he’s accepted on the new Model 3 number 500,000 at $1000 a pop. Mind you these deposits are refundable, they just guarantee the buyer a “place in line”. If the buyer changes their mind, they just ask and the money comes right back to them. No risk.
Unless Tesla goes tits up, then, oh well. You just bought a place in line for the bankruptcy settlement and you’ll be lucky (very lucky) to get $.01 on that “investment” you made.
I think he’s also selling advanced tickets to Mars…
This guy is shameless.

kaliforniakook
Reply to  Tom Halla
October 4, 2017 9:07 am

Not always. The little Tesla Roadster is cute enough that if you have the money, it’s worth buying. I have a rich friend whose garage is full of sports cars – including the Roadster. Hell, if it only cost $30K, I’d have one for running around town. In fact, I thought I was going to buy one, until I learned the $30K was just to hold a reservation.
It may not have the versatility of my Triumph Trophy SE motorcycle, which can (barely) navigate the steep, rutted, dirt road I live on, and can make it to my eye doctor and back without a recharge. But if I had Roadster, I’d keep it in a garage in town, and ride my bike down to pick it up. Of course, I still couldn’t go to the eye doctor, but I could… ride it around Reno and look really cool! I thought I could pick up the mail, but I wouldn’t want the hassle of transferring it all to the bike.
But really – it would be fun to drive!

October 3, 2017 6:25 pm

Tesla is far, far above its reasonable stock value. No rational CEO would let his big institutional buyers get so far ahead of rational value that can’t be met by profit. But we’re not talking about a rational CEO at Tesla.
The evidence is the rational bond market rates its corporate paper at 6 notches into JUNK territory. Meaning the regulated bond market rationally see TSLA ability to repay debt as questionable in the future.
Can its stock be far behind?

Steve R
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
October 4, 2017 7:25 am

“No rational CEO would let his big institutional buyers get so far ahead of rational value that can’t be met by profit. But we’re not talking about a rational CEO at Tesla.”
I do not understand this statement.

Neckbeard93
October 3, 2017 6:26 pm

As a university student who constantly has to deal with pretentious techies ogling over Elon Musk’s infallibility, I get great pleasure seeing him struggle. Granted, he’s still richer than God, but I hope this puts a dent in his ego.

October 3, 2017 6:27 pm

I imagine Elon Musk would go back and “re-communicate” the latest results. Basically the same communication as was done before.
Inspirational.
Heh, the world needs inspirational people and Musk is one of the best at this. Sometimes inspirational people lead to amazing things. But there is also economics and this is what wins in the end.

Streetcred
Reply to  Bill Illis
October 3, 2017 11:15 pm

Like an evangelical preacher … they keep on handing their hard-earned (in some cases not) cash to him for redemption.

I Came I Saw I Left
Reply to  Bill Illis
October 4, 2017 5:28 am

Elizabeth Holmes was inspirational.

Trebla
October 3, 2017 6:27 pm

Tough to make a case against the modern ICE. It’s practically perfect. I’m driving a 2005 Ford Freestar and the motor works like new.

TG
Reply to  Trebla
October 3, 2017 7:34 pm

Trebla.
Same here our second car is a 2000 Ford Focus Station wagon it runs like new, is smooth and very comfortable and is great for loading 2 bikes and 2 small dogs. It keeps ticking and takes a licking and is still my personal favorite car.
Main car a 2012 Toyota is good but not as nice a ride.

John Bell
Reply to  TG
October 4, 2017 7:32 am

TG OMG I drove a 2000 Ford focus wagon for 14 years, great car, it was getting rusty in Michigan, then I sold it in 2014 and bought a new Ford focus 5 door.

Reply to  Trebla
October 3, 2017 7:58 pm

I just gave my 1975 Jeep Cherokee with its big V8 to a Jeep reconditioning shop. Still running beautifully after 37 years. I wonder how many EV’s will be running so well with virtually no maintenance other than a couple of starters, tire changes, brake changes and regular oil changes. Had to switch to premium fuels to avoid the dastardly ethanol engine eater, but other than that, it still runs great.

Lars P.
Reply to  Wayne Delbeke
October 4, 2017 1:46 am

Well, you did some battery chances too did you?
In principle EV are simpler machines and if one takes battery change out of the equation they should not request more maintenance….

MarkW
Reply to  Wayne Delbeke
October 4, 2017 6:52 am

Since a battery change costs more than swapping out an ICE, I see no reason why we should take it out of the equation.

Reply to  Trebla
October 4, 2017 7:29 am

I am driving a 1995 F150 with the odometer reading 265,000. This is the Ford big 6 cylinder. I read online that if you do not rev the motor over 3000 rpm, then the motor lasts almost forever.

kaliforniakook
Reply to  Trebla
October 4, 2017 10:07 am

I’m in love with my GMC Diesel 4WD Canyon (pickup). I’ve always loved power (my last car was a Chrysler 300 SRT), but it didn’t have the clearance – or the traction – to get me to my new house in the country. But this Canyon has awesome torque, decent HP, goes anywhere, anytime, can haul 1,400+ pounds of cargo, and tow 7,700 pounds. In normal usage, I get >23 MPH, and well over 500 range.
Show me a battery vehicle that will do all that. Musk is talking about manufacturing a semi with a 300 mile range. I drove for North American Van Lines (a moving company) during the latter years of my college days, and my dad has been driving semis since 1969. A 300 mile range is useless as most driver get in 500+ miles per day in the allowed 10 hours – unless maybe you can recharge in half an hour to an hour. Most of our tractors had greater than 700 mile range, and his current tractor has a 1400 mile range. That’s necessary in order to be able to pick where you buy diesel – prices of diesel directly impact profits.
So maybe the 300 miler is good for (real) short hauls. Electric truck stops are going to have to be placed next to power stations for long haulers who don’t care how long it takes to get to a destination.
All that to say… I, too, love the ICE.

Amber
October 3, 2017 6:28 pm

Tesla… who in 2 years . Stupid money only lasts so long .
Pure gambling/timing play and the music is about to stop .

Bruce Cobb
October 3, 2017 6:32 pm

“legacy carmakers will eventually wake up and offer fully electric vehicles by the early 2020s”
And legacy car buyers will snooze.

Chris
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
October 4, 2017 8:35 am

So what? Legacy carmakers will offer both ICE and electric vehicles.

MarkW
Reply to  Chris
October 4, 2017 1:52 pm

Or else

Retired_Engineer_Jim
October 3, 2017 6:41 pm

“… a climate fund that has beaten 97 percent of its peers”. But how does this fund do against the market?

kramer
October 3, 2017 6:43 pm

“By the end of the year, electric-car maker Tesla Inc. will have burned through more than $10 billion without ever having made 10 cents.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-02/automakers-plan-electric-car-blitz-even-as-tesla-burns-billions

Santa Baby
Reply to  kramer
October 4, 2017 12:06 am

Who’s money are they using up?

Ian W
Reply to  Santa Baby
October 4, 2017 3:51 am

Yours

Michael Jankowski
October 3, 2017 6:54 pm

“…Tesla Inc. is overvalued, according to a climate fund that has beaten 97 percent of its peers…”
97 percent is quite prevalent when it comes to climate.

Reply to  Michael Jankowski
October 3, 2017 10:17 pm

When 97% of available products are junk, picking the 3% makes a king.

markl
October 3, 2017 7:03 pm

The EV will drop into its’ niche within the next decade. That niche being short haul city transportation. The large manufacturers will eat up and spit out Tesla based on price and value for the money. The much bally hoo’d self driving feature doesn’t make sense in a city environment unless its’ completely autonomous….. and it’s not.

jorgekafkazar
Reply to  markl
October 3, 2017 11:19 pm

Self-driving cars will seem like a good idea until the first terrorist attack based on them.

Sara
Reply to  jorgekafkazar
October 4, 2017 7:40 am

“…until the first terrorist attack based on them.” Bingo!

Nash
October 3, 2017 7:06 pm

Number 97 (percent) keeps repeating and seeing it everywhere. But it’s not a Fibonacci number

Neil Jordan
Reply to  Nash
October 3, 2017 7:22 pm

It’s a marketing number. Look up “what is the meaning of 97 percent?” to get an idea. For example, see Alex Epstein:
https://youtu.be/SSrjAXK5pGw

John of Cloverdale, WA, Australia
October 3, 2017 7:46 pm

South Australia and our wholly government funded ABC just love Elon Musk.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-29/elon-musk-tesla-world-biggest-battery-reaches-halfway-mark/9001542

noaaprogrammer
Reply to  John of Cloverdale, WA, Australia
October 3, 2017 8:57 pm

When I first heard his name I thought it was some sort of after shave lotion.

Streetcred
Reply to  noaaprogrammer
October 3, 2017 11:16 pm

hahahaha

Patrick MJD
Reply to  John of Cloverdale, WA, Australia
October 3, 2017 10:54 pm

They must have poured that concrete a while a go to be so far ahead that he will get paid. Concrete takes weeks to properly cure before you can build on it. I sense a bit of a scam here.

McComberBoy
Reply to  Patrick MJD
October 4, 2017 6:38 am

Some concrete can be built on the next day. Depends on the concrete. Even ordinary concrete will attain 70% strength in a week. All concrete used on my projects have strength based on a 28 day cure time, but many concretes will beat that time by two to three weeks. High early concretes are specifically formulated to achieve proper bearing capacity in very short times.

Steve Keppel-Jones
Reply to  John of Cloverdale, WA, Australia
October 4, 2017 5:34 am

Don’t forget the 250 MW of diesel generators they had to commission into service, at the last minute and at great expense. That’s probably one of the least efficient of the cheap and reliable ways to generate grid-scale power, but on the plus side, it will emit lots of CO2, which should help green Australia up a bit. It needs it!

October 3, 2017 8:03 pm

John of Cloverdale:
The words or initials of SA and NSW always make me chuckle. Sad that it is. Course we have idiots in control of Canada at the moment, driving capital straight out of the country. I just liquidated most of my Canadian stocks. Seems so many lefty’s just can’t make the right side of their brains work. Of course no one expected much of our “Hair Boy” trust fund sucking leader so just walking is probably an ordeal for the boy. So you can have a chuckle at our expense too.
A Once Proud Canadian but hiding my head these days…….

Steve Keppel-Jones
Reply to  Wayne Delbeke
October 4, 2017 5:38 am

Awful isn’t it, Wayne. Not just the feds, which is bad enough, but Ontario is even worse. I suspect the lefties don’t even *want* to make the right side of their brains work. It’s too much trouble for them. And there doesn’t seem to be any way to wake them up until after the collapse. And maybe not even then.

J Mac
October 3, 2017 8:18 pm

‘Tesla is overvalued…….’ There’s a masterful statement of the blatantly obvious!

Neil Jordan
October 3, 2017 8:55 pm

According to Teslarati, Musk might leave Tesla after successful release of Model 3 and go on to bigger and better things like Mars.
http://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-to-leave-tesla-motors-after-model-3-release/
According to WUWT, the Model 3 was successfully released if you elastically define successful.

Bryan A
Reply to  Neil Jordan
October 3, 2017 10:17 pm

Given how fast they are being produced, it will take them more than 20 years just to fulfill their 2018 model year preorders

Streetcred
Reply to  Neil Jordan
October 3, 2017 11:18 pm

He’s promising economical Mars travel already … he’d make a great test pilot !

angech
October 3, 2017 11:50 pm

might need a post on Elon Musk
I will build a battery for South Australia in 100 days if asked.
Was asked 2 months ago Now announces start date last week.
Some discrepancy here worth a post possibly from Jo Nova’s husband or another Australian with interest?
Admire his chutzpa.

October 4, 2017 12:27 am

Tesla was amongst the first to market and so has a competitive edge. WUWT loves to promote any article that is in the slightest critical of Tesla and Elon Musk. Customers love Tesla vehicles and they are going to be around for a very long time, so just get used to it…

1saveenergy
Reply to  ivankinsman
October 4, 2017 1:28 am

“Customers love Tesla vehicles and they are going to be around for a very long time, so just get used to it”
But that’s not saying it’s a good thing or that its true;
You could say the same about drugs…
Customers love ‘Crack Cocaine’ and they are going to be around for a very long time, so just get used to it.
or Silly Bandz (google it)…
Customers love ‘Silly Bandz’ and they are going to be around for a very long time, so just get used to it.

Urederra
Reply to  1saveenergy
October 4, 2017 7:25 am

Don’t feed the troll.

George Daddis
Reply to  ivankinsman
October 4, 2017 6:22 am

It is companies like Volvo or an American manufacturer like GM that has the competitive edge.
They have the deep pockets and deep width of models including ICEs which are becoming more and more efficient.
The can afford to play hardball on Musk’s field and drive prices of EVs down until Elon moves on to other ventures or solidifies the miniscule wealthy virtue signaler’s market.
The big boys can then readjust prices and models.

M Montgomery
Reply to  George Daddis
October 4, 2017 9:49 am

The virtue signaler’s market is nonetheless a market. Global Warming has hung on a long time. I’m sure EV’s and solar will make a lot of people rich … for the relative short term. Never mind the net economic benefit to the customer or net increase in CO2 emissions from their manufacture. Feeling good has always been for sale, or at least a big part of sales. Nothing new here. What ticks me off are the subsidies to play this game.

Reply to  George Daddis
October 6, 2017 6:19 am

Elon Musk too has deep pockets and they will become even deeper with projects like this one: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-41524220

Vicus
Reply to  ivankinsman
October 5, 2017 5:07 pm

You support pollution? Tesla is anything but green…

Reply to  Vicus
October 6, 2017 6:13 am

Eva are all part if the mix helping to reduce global CO2 emissions. Air quality in urban environments will be improved through EVs andthe banning or phase outin particular of diesel engines.

October 4, 2017 12:30 am
Nigel S
Reply to  ivankinsman
October 4, 2017 1:32 am

‘Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.’ Warren Buffett

Nigel S
Reply to  ivankinsman
October 4, 2017 1:51 am

Just been reading a crazy article about how Elon Musk himself is invented. One interesting fact to support the thesis was that he is a fan of Margaret Thatcher. If that’s true I’m warming to the lad!

Reply to  Nigel S
October 4, 2017 2:01 am

That old bitch can burn in he’ll. Destroyed the social fabric of the British nation.

Reply to  Nigel S
October 4, 2017 2:19 am

ivankinsman, she launched your pet scare in the UN General Assembly.

1saveenergy
Reply to  Nigel S
October 4, 2017 3:00 am

Margaret Thatcher used the idea of ‘carbon caused global warming’ to break the power of the miners after the Edward Heath 3 day week humiliation,
Destroying the social fabric of the British nation was the outcome.
It’s actually woman made global warming….assisted by Mann !

Nigel S
Reply to  Nigel S
October 4, 2017 4:10 am

Some real facts about Margaret Thatcher and how she rescued UK from becoming the ‘sick man of Europe’.
Wilson (Labour) closed far more coal mines of course. You had to be there really to know just how bad it was.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-truth-about-margaret-thatcher-2013-04-09

MarkW
Reply to  Nigel S
October 4, 2017 6:56 am

Apparently, social fabric equals communist unions.

Bill Toland
Reply to  ivankinsman
October 4, 2017 5:19 am

Ivankinsman, the investor sentiment aginst Tesla is gigantic among market professionals. Earlier this year, Tesla was the second most shorted share in the stock market. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-tesla-shares-are-two-of-the-biggest-shorts-in-the-world-right-now-2017-06-13).
Virtually all the positive market sentiment for Tesla comes from small investors who can’t count.

Reply to  Bill Toland
October 4, 2017 6:52 am

Elon Musk is a fu@@@@g game changer. He was one of the founders of PayPal which revolutionised payments. He could have sat back and enjoyed his millions from its sale but instead he set up Tesla.
Gone are the days when Americans used to praise entrepreneurs like Musk. On this site it is just snarky comments and prissy evaluations. Not surprising China is overtaking the USA in business activity and cutting-edge technological innovation.

MarkW
Reply to  Bill Toland
October 4, 2017 6:56 am

The delusion is strong with this one.

Chris
Reply to  Bill Toland
October 4, 2017 8:38 am

“The delusion is strong with this one.”
No delusion at all, he is correct. Instead of sitting around all day commenting on web sites, Musk is building businesses. Who respects someone who just sits on the sidelines chirping away? Nobody.

M Montgomery
Reply to  Bill Toland
October 4, 2017 10:05 am

: “Gone are the days when Americans used to praise entrepreneurs like Musk.”
Gone are the days when entrepreneurs would sell, prove, and market their ideas without subsidies. Think Edison, the original Tesla, and JP Morgan. Entrepreneurs know how to more efficiently get to the bottom of the science and technology without risking and wasting taxpayers dollars and thereby bloating the government and creating the self-destructing ever-expanding “new normal”. Entrepreneurs and investors are going to end up making the fortunes (from our purchasing dollar), they should be taking on the full risk.
This is another Solyndra.

MarkW
Reply to  Bill Toland
October 4, 2017 1:54 pm

He’s building a business that’s losing money hand over fist.
I bet even you could do that if you tried hard enough.
He’s building cars that the government has to pay people to buy. What a revolutionary businessman.

don rady
Reply to  Bill Toland
October 11, 2017 8:06 am

the ? is who invests more money? if the small investors who can’t count, who believe in the green dream, buys more stock, then the professional shorts the stock, then stock price will keep going up. Crazy.

Bob Layson
October 4, 2017 1:16 am

I would conjecture that not one percent of those who parrot the ‘97% of climate scientists agree that…’ could state the total number of scientists or scientific papers surveyed.

CMS
Reply to  Bob Layson
October 4, 2017 10:04 am

Or even more important exactly what it is that they agree on. Hint, not what Obama thought for sure.

NoBS
October 4, 2017 2:05 am
October 4, 2017 3:25 am

Three tesla things
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/3tesla.jpg
in chronological order
– woodworking tool, been around since roman times still going strong
– genius inventor 1856 – 1943
– electric car 2008 – ?
Anyone to hazard a guess what year ? might stand for.

Nigel S
Reply to  vukcevic
October 4, 2017 5:08 am

Thank you, I had no idea a ‘tesla’ meant adze. ? is a good question! At which point some may be looking for an ice axe (pick).

Reply to  Nigel S
October 4, 2017 6:06 am

Possibly one of Tesla’s ancestors was maker of such tools (blacksmith).
It comes from verb ‘tesati’ (shaping piece of wood by cutting its sides), hence the name of the tool used ‘tesla’.
In number of Slavic languages: Serbian/ Croat/ Czech = tesla & Russian = teslo (cyrillic ‘tесло’ ).

Reply to  Nigel S
October 4, 2017 6:10 am

google came with this
“Tesla was originally a surname of Slavic Origin and means “of the axe” or “harvester”. The name dates back to the 7th century when it was used to describe a tool used to harvest timber. This tool is more presently referred to as an adz. A tesla is the SI unit for magnetic flux density (after Nikola Tesla).”

Nigel S
Reply to  Nigel S
October 4, 2017 11:37 am

Here’s a copy of a Bronze Age adze being used to build a replica Bronze Age boat.

Vicus
Reply to  vukcevic
October 5, 2017 5:10 pm

The adze far predates the Romans (Paleo to Neolithic)

Oatley
October 4, 2017 3:37 am

Pragmatic middle class people have a way of seeing through the Muskovites. They ain’t buying…

Resourceguy
Reply to  Oatley
October 4, 2017 6:19 am

+1

October 4, 2017 3:41 am

Don’t allow the Tesla cultists to color your view of electric cars, which, although you would never know it from looking at a Tesla vehicle, are intrinsically cheaper and simpler and more reliable
than any other type of vehicle. I mean, is anyone going to shed a tear because electrics don’t need a transmission, exhaust system, massive cooling system, or drivetrain maintenance? Drivetrain repairs are simple and virtually never required. Already a Tesla Model S has managed to log 350,000 miles without the need for such things as oil changes, tune-ups, anti-freeze changes, etc. Batteries have a lifetime expectancy of well over 15 years. Current DCFC (Direct Current Fast Charge) chargers can recharge to 80% in half an hour using a 120 KW charger. Now the SAE Combo protocols – CCS – are being upgraded to allow for 350 KW chargers. Tesla has hinted at 80% recharges less than 15 minutes, probably less than 10. Porsche has already built some 350 KW chargers for their E Mission electric. But fast recharges are really of value only when travelling, or if unable to recharge at one’s residence. Apartments and condos, especially, will install Level 2 chargers (regular 240 Volts) for certain. Installing a Level 2 charger at your residence isn’t very expensive – wire it yourself (pretty simple) would run around $500-$600. With a 60 amp feed, recharging can occur at a rate of around 14 kWhrs per hour – roughly 50 miles. Right now, the cost of batteries is around $150 to $190 per kWhr, depending upon exactly what is included in the cost – battery container, cooling system, etc.
A normal sized vehicle (not a Tesla Model S heavyweight – 5000 pounds, 3 MPKwHr) like the Chevy Bolt gets at least 4 miles per kWhr (with a 60kWhr battery). At 12 cents per kWhr, fuel costs are 3 cents a mile for the Bolt – or 30 miles for 90 cents. Can your gas car travel 30 miles on 90 cents worth of gasoline? Mine requires more than three times as much and it weighs almost exactly the same as the Chevy Bolt.
Tesla is now entering a whole new ballgame, one in which they no longer have a virtual monopoly. What they also shortly will not have is their $7500 buyer’s tax credit. But virtually all of their future competitors (sans GM and Nissan) will have a $7500 price advantage (in the U.S.)
and there are going to be LOTS and LOTS of competitors. GM the other day announced 23 all electric models by 2022, including a 2022 electric Corvette, A count of other automakers showed over 100 electric models already announced within 3 or 4 years. And there will be more, I’m certain. BMW and Mercedes alone will acount for 22 models – every model BMW makes will have an electric drivetrain version available. Mercedes is building a battery factory in Alabama.
THOSE are the real reasons Tesla stock is overpriced – it’s price assumes a continuing monopoly by Tesla in the EV field. THAT ain’t gonna happen. An electric car is virtually identical to a gas powered car – BMW illustrates that in its assembly line, which will be able to produce either an electric, a hybrid or a gas powered model on the same assembly line at the same time.
In fact Tesla has not a single patent that any other automaker would have any need for in building an electric car. Tesla is defenseless against the competition. Tesla is NOT a high tech company.

pbweather
Reply to  arthur4563
October 4, 2017 4:11 am

And they don’t have the experience in removing production reliability problems.
https://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/24/consumer-reports-ranks-tesla-near-bottom-for-reliability.html

RLu
Reply to  pbweather
October 4, 2017 8:26 am


Supply and demand. You can either program a price limit for charging AND discharging your EV and power wall. Using only ‘green’ power when available will be cheaper, but unreliable. Or you can pay for reliable power whatever the cost.

RLu
Reply to  pbweather
October 4, 2017 8:28 am

oops, wrong reply button

Vicus
Reply to  pbweather
October 5, 2017 5:17 pm

Whilst I accept most criticism of Tesla, Consumer Reports is a total hack job. I wouldn’t trust them to adequately test a penny from a goose. They’re almost as disengenuos and corrupt as the BBB (Better Business Bureau for unawares).

Reply to  arthur4563
October 4, 2017 4:13 am

“With a 60 amp feed, recharging can occur at a rate of around 14 kWhrs per hour ”
Five hour charge would consume 70 kWh while the typical UK home uses less than 5 kWh daily.
Where all the electricity is going to come from, since the UK’s greed is often running at its limit as it is.

Nigel S
Reply to  vukcevic
October 4, 2017 4:48 am

More like 13kWh daily for an average UK home I think. That will go up of course when they ban natural gas for domestic use (most use it for heat and cooking).

Reply to  vukcevic
October 4, 2017 5:20 am

my bad, thanks for the correction
instead “less than 5 kWh daily”
I should have said ‘ less than 15 kWh daily’

Caligula Jones
Reply to  vukcevic
October 4, 2017 7:20 am

Yes, I always find it amazing that here in Ontario, Canada, our hopeless Liberal government advises us to cut down on electricity use…at the same time hyping electric cars (not to mention subsidizing $100,000 luxury vehicles).
I guess they DO believe they’ll run on unicorn farts.

RLu
Reply to  vukcevic
October 4, 2017 7:28 am

That is what “smart” meters have been invented for. As soon as everyone has one, variable pricing will be introduced. To ‘manage’ the Duck Curve.
Today, EV’s are only affordable for people who do not need subsidies to afford one. When the prices drop and the ‘little people’ start using EV’s, the days of night time charging from cheap coal power will end.
– on a sunny day at noon, when your roof’s solar panels are working best, the 15 minute price will be -0.10/kWh.
– on a foggy winter day, when all the wind and solar fail, it will be 1.00/kWh.
– and when the residential transformer gets hot, the price will jump to 10.00/kWh to force EV’s and water heaters to switch off until the transformer has cooled down.
You can also bet on it, that it will become illegal to enter a congestion zone without having a dedicated parking spot with EV charger. That way all cars can trickle charge 23 hours a day and basically getting their power from a solar roof 50km away.

Sara
Reply to  vukcevic
October 4, 2017 7:52 am

13 kilowatt hours daily electrical household use in the UK? What in the blue-eyed world are you Brits doing? Don’t you turn the lights off EVER?
I get billed by the kilowatt hours per month. My most recent bill (September) has a total usage of 6.9 KwH for the entire month, and I leave my computer running all day, use a full-sized fridge, clocks everywhere (stove, microwave, computer, phone) not to mention charging my cell phone routinely.
What in the world are you doing to use that much electricity????

Reply to  vukcevic
October 4, 2017 7:54 am

RLu How do you manage the “Duck” curve when the EV will be parked in a parking lot at the persons place of employment or the parking garage the co. provides/ he rents?

RLu
Reply to  vukcevic
October 4, 2017 9:02 am


Supply and demand. You can either program a price limit for charging AND discharging your EV and power wall. Using only ‘green’ power when available will be cheaper, but unreliable. Or you can pay for reliable power whatever the cost.
@sara
http://shrinkthatfootprint.com/average-household-electricity-consumption
Germany has a household usage of about 3500 kWh/year but that is without methane for heating / cooking.

Reply to  vukcevic
October 4, 2017 9:32 am

In the US typical household power consumption is about 11,700 kWh each year, in France it is 6,400 kWh, in the UK it is 4,600 kWh and in China around 1,300 kWh.
http://shrinkthatfootprint.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/household1.gif

Nigel S
Reply to  vukcevic
October 4, 2017 11:56 am

Sara October 4, 2017 at 7:52 am; I’ve seen you use this figure before on another post but I’m afraid it must be wrong. 6.9 kWh for the whole month is less than 230 Watt hours per day or less than 10 Watts average. The Samsung RSG5UUMH ‘American Style’ fridge freezer has an annual power consumption of 538 kWh or about 45 kWh/month on its own. Your monthly electricity bill would be about $1 for 6.9 kWh. I think 609 kWh is probably closer to the mark (still well below the US average that vukcevic quotes below). Most people here use low energy bulbs or LEDs so power consumption for lighting is very low.
https://www.sust-it.net/power-consumption-price-comparison/samsung/RSG5UUMH

MarkW
Reply to  arthur4563
October 4, 2017 6:58 am

They are only cheaper if you don’t count the cost of replacing the battery pack every few years.

Reply to  MarkW
October 4, 2017 7:51 am

And that the states/Feds are not collecting their 50% taxes like they do on gasoline or Diesel fuel.

Smart Rock
Reply to  MarkW
October 4, 2017 10:48 am

A bit negative, MarkW, as we have come to expect from you. Agreed, those big lithium batteries haven’t really been tested over time yet. But there are 20-year old Prius’s still on the road with original (nickel-hydride-lanthanum) batteries. Even stolid lead-acid batteries have come very far. When I started owning cars in the 1960s, you could expect 4 years out of a car battery, 5 if lucky (in a cold country). Now my big V8 pickup truck has a battery that’s survived starts in chilly northern Ontario for 10 years and counting.
Modern batteries are amazing. And no reason to suppose they won’t keep getting more amazing as time goes by.
I think the biggest objection to electric vehicles is if you live in a country where everyone will have no choice but to have electric cars. Then “they” will start requiring trucks to be electric, then bulldozers and backhoes, buses and trains. And home or commercial/industrial heating with oil or gas, and cooking with natural gas will be outlawed. Where is all the electricity going to come from? At a rough guess, we’d be looking at a 3- or 4-fold increase in electricity production (without fossil fuels of course). Perhaps there will be a resurgence of nuclear power, but the greens don’t seem to like the only carbon-free baseload options (nuclear and big hydro) for generation. Makes you wonder if “they” have thought it through, or whether in fact there is another agenda.

MarkW
Reply to  MarkW
October 4, 2017 1:58 pm

There’s no reason to assume those batteries will get better over time.
It’s a mature technology.
The only cost savings will be from greater volume and the vast majority of that savings has already been acquired.

MarkW
Reply to  MarkW
October 4, 2017 1:59 pm

PS: Don’t blame me for being negative. I’m just pointing out reality to those who don’t want to see it.

Vicus
Reply to  MarkW
October 5, 2017 5:29 pm

Smart Rocks
What information do you base on to state some Prius cars have never needed battery changes? With “20 years old”, you’re making the claim original model Prius’s have had no battery work, at all.

Dave in Canmore
Reply to  arthur4563
October 4, 2017 9:39 am

Great overview comparing Tesla to its competitors, however you forgot the most crucial comparison, an overpriced electric compared to my dirt cheap Honda FIT which costs me nothing to drive ($5/100km) and outperforms an electric in every meaningful test of real world driving.
Tesla may continue to penetrate the luxury, virtue-signaler market, but attempting to appeal to the mainstream will find it in competition with cheaper, reliable cars that run forever like corollas and civics.

Ian W
October 4, 2017 4:53 am

At the same time as the Greens are trying to move away from stable base load electricity generation and supply to intermittent wind and solar, they are pushing electric vehicles greatly increasing demand for stable base load electricity supply. The supply must be in place before the demand can be satisfied and that includes those without garaged parking and the local ‘domestic’ power supplies that are suddenly required to provide current loads up to 10 times normal.

Reply to  Ian W
October 4, 2017 7:50 am

And the majority of that energy comes during the day – when EV’s are parked in a parking lot – not at home next to the $3,000 high speed charger.

October 4, 2017 7:48 am

EV will never work other than as a second car. Calculate the charge time of any EV made today or in the “Dream” stage. They are talking about 100 KWh batteries for several hundred miles travel between charges. That means pushing in 80 or 90 KW in 5 to ten minutes. That is 10 to 20 KW per minute. That is over 80 amps. That means heavy gauge, number 6, copper wire, three of then plus ground wire, bigger than the typical flexible line used on a mid sized RV, ~2 to 3 inch diameter. Is the average person going to plug that in? Now how much current will you need at the typical service station to charge 4 or five vehicles at once. Think about the line at gas stations on the turnpike service plaza. Are you going to wait an hour just to spend another 1/2 hour to charge your car?
And still, every battery i have read about has charging time limitations on them and data shows that fast charges decrease battery life. Worse think about how warm your cellphone gets when pumping in 1 – 2 amps. Now multiply that by several hundred. W can be easily converted to energy. Energy / Time can be converted to heat.

Sara
Reply to  usurbrain
October 4, 2017 7:53 am

It won’t work for anyone who doesn’t have a place to charge it at home. Period.

Reply to  usurbrain
October 4, 2017 8:05 am

Replace the battery with a fuel cell burning gasoline, and you have a winner. The only catch is that the fuel cell does not exist – yet.

Smart Rock
Reply to  Curious George
October 4, 2017 10:54 am

Not so, curious one. See http://www.ballard.com

Chris
Reply to  usurbrain
October 4, 2017 8:42 am

It’s not 5-10 minutes, it’s overnight. Only on rare occasions will someone need to charge at a station. Those who do huge amounts of driving, or lots of long distance driving, won’t buy an EV. And over time, restaurants and cafes will over charging spots, both as a revenue generator, as well as a way to draw traffic.

MarkW
Reply to  usurbrain
October 4, 2017 1:59 pm

More likely a third car, so that you still have two cars when your EV is stuck in the garage charging.

Reply to  MarkW
October 4, 2017 2:21 pm

That will also force people to clean out their garage to park their car(s) inside else someone steals the electricity.

Bob in Switzerland
October 4, 2017 8:09 am

There is another problem facing Electric Vehicles that run on Lithium ion batteries – that being the availability of cobalt a key component of the batteries. Each Tesla requires several kilograms of cobalt per car, an element for which there is not enough production to produce the “planned” number of batteries in 2 years time, let alone batteries for electrical network backup. For the electric car industry to be viable beyond 2020 a major new source of cobalt needs to be found and exploited, or a major breakthrough in battery technology is required.

Frank K.
October 4, 2017 9:13 am

And then there are the largely unknown effects of intense low frequency EMF exposure (e.g. from electric vehicles) on the human body…
Extremely low frequency fields (ELF fields):
The previous conclusion that ELF fields are possibly carcinogenic, chiefly based on childhood leukemia results, is still valid. There is no known mechanism to explain how electromagnetic field exposure may induce leukemia. The effects have not been replicated in animal studies.
http://ec.europa.eu/health/ph_risk/committees/04_scenihr/docs/scenihr_o_006.pdf

MarkW
Reply to  Frank K.
October 4, 2017 2:02 pm

Not this nonsense again?

Resourceguy
October 4, 2017 11:02 am

If there were sell-able tax credits for green development on Pluto, Musk would be offering that too and taking advance orders for the trips.

October 6, 2017 6:30 am

Team a doing a great job in driving the EV market. Its detractors say it will be affected by the big car manufacturers. Absolute rubbish – digital camera makers helped decimate the traditional heavyweights. And new entrants like Dyson would also not be entering the market … but they are:
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41399497

October 6, 2017 6:30 am

Team a doing a great job in driving the EV market. Its detractors say it will be affected by the big car manufacturers. Absolute rubbish – digital camera makers helped decimate the traditional heavyweights. And new entrants like Dyson would also not be entering the market … but they are:
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41399497

Reply to  ivankinsman
October 6, 2017 7:17 am

Team a = Tesla

October 6, 2017 8:15 am

Hah! Musk wants to rebuild the Puerto Rico electrical grid using his storage batteries. No numbers are stated as to the cost. …https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/06/elon-musk-could-help-puerto-rico-electricity-hurricane-maria.html

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