Tesla Narrowly Misses Q3 Model 3 Deliveries… by 83%

Guest post by David Middleton

Tesla misses the mark on Model 3 production – by a lot

by Chris Isidore @CNNTech
October 2, 2017

Tesla announced it fell far short of its plan to build 1,500 of its first mass market car, the Model 3, in the third quarter.

The actual number it built? 260, or 83% less than promised.

The announcement made late Monday is another sign of the challenges the upstart electric car maker may face as it tries to build a more affordable electric car — a basic version of which priced at about $35,000.

Shares of Tesla (TSLA) fell 1.5% in after-hours trading after the company released the news.

Tesla said most of the lines at the Gigafactory, its battery plant in Nevada, and its auto assembly plant in California were meeting their production targets, but that “a handful have taken longer to activate than expected.”

[…]

[T]he Model 3 is not the first time it has fallen well behind promised production targets. Tesla’s high-priced crossover, the Model X, went into production in late 2015, long after originally promised and had a slower-than-expected roll out. Production of the Model S sedan, its best selling vehicle to date, was also much slower than originally promised.

Krebs said Tesla missing deadlines is “part of their track record.”

[…]

CNN Money

Tesla’s Model 3 production guidance was…

Tony Stark’s Elon Musk’s Ponzi Scheme business model will, no doubt, continue to thrive so long as the OPM keeps flowing inStark’s Musk’s business model has been so “successful” that everyone is trying to get in on the act…

Automakers Plan Electric Car Blitz as Tesla Burns Billions

By David Welch
October 1, 2017

  • Regulations, Musk’s marketing mastery seen as key reasons
  • Field gets crowded in market most buyers have yet to embrace

Here are two facts that defy logic: By the end of the year, electric-car maker Tesla Inc.will have burned through more than $10 billion without ever having made 10 cents. Yet companies around the world are lining up to compete with it.

Almost 50 new pure electric-car models will come to market globally between now and 2022, including vehicles from Daimler AG and Volkswagen AG. General Motors Co. raised the stakes Monday by pledging to sell 20 all-electric vehicles by 2023, including launching two new EVs in the next 18 months. Even British inventor James Dyson is getting into the game, announcing last week that he’s investing two billion pounds ($2.7 billion) to develop an electric car and the batteries to power it.

The reasons for chasing Tesla are part city hall, part show business. Regulators in Beijing have laid out a plan to mandate electric vehicle production in China, while California requires carmakers to build more EVs or be forced to buy credits from rivals. At the same time, Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk and his sleek cars have captured the imagination of Americans to the point where consumers and investors are throwing money at his Silicon Valley company.

“Nobody doubts that the future will be electric,” said Erich Joachimsthaler, founder and CEO of brand-strategy firm Vivaldi, which works with German luxury carmakers. “The car companies dragged their feet with electric. Now they are being dragged into it by Tesla and by regulations.”

[…]

That will make for a very crowded field in a nascent zero-emission car market that most consumers have yet to embrace and where financial losses loom large. In the U.S., electric car sales were less than 1 percent of the market last year, according to the International Energy Agency. They were 1.4 percent in China and in the U.K.

“Companies are committed to electric cars, but there is little evidence that there is a lot of consumer demand for it,” said Kevin Tynan, senior analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence.

[…]

The list of companies piling in added an unusual name last week when Dyson, who made billions making high-end vacuum cleaners, announced his foray into the electric car market. Dyson said his car will be radically different from the vehicles being designed by Tesla and the established carmakers.

Read more: A vacuum billionaire’s quest to make a car that doesn’t suck

Since Dyson doesn’t compete with Tesla or need to meet rules faced by traditional automakers, the planned car may be more of a flight of fancy, said Joachimsthaler of Vivaldi.

“More likely, this is an Icarus complex,” he said. “He will realize he flew a little too close to the sun.”

Bloomberg

So… The EV frenzy is being driven by two things:

  1. The desire to be the next Icarus Tony Stark Elon Musk.
  2. Government regulations designed to save the world from Loki Hydra the Mandarin Crimson Dynamo Ultron Gorebal Warming.

And not by:

  1. Consumer demand for the product.
  2. Realistic profit motive.

What could go wrong with such a brilliant plan?  It sounds just like…

How about those PEV sales? Aren’t they awesome?

September 2017 CAR SALES will be reported on Tuesday, October 3rd, 2017 beginning with the Nissan LEAF and Chevrolet Volt sales at 6:30-7:30 PT (9:30-10:30 AM ET), and finishes with Ford’s plug-in data in the afternoon of Wednesday, October 4th, 2017.

Every month InsideEVs tracks all the plug-in sales for the United States by auto maker and brand. Below, readers can find all the historical sales charts for the “current generation” of electric vehicles, as well as a synopsis of the current month’s sales happenings by specific EV below the charts…

InsideEVs

  • Total US PEV (all makes & models combined) sales in August 2017: 16,624
  • Ford F – Series PU sales in August 2017: 77,007

I’ll update this post if September PEV sales (all makes & models combined) top the Ford F-Series… Or even the GMC Sierra.

% Chg from % Chg from
Top 20 vehicles August 2017 Aug ’16 YTD 2017 YTD 2016
Ford F – Series PU 77,007 15 576,334  9.2
Chevrolet Silverado PU 54,448 3.9 363,354 -4.4
Toyota RAV4 43,265 30.4 269,835  16.8
Dodge Ram PU 37,608 -6.6 327,759  4.6
Toyota Camry 37,051 12.7 247,775 -7.1
Honda Civic 36,482 11.2 248,928 -2.6
Honda CR-V 30,960 -15.2 249,977  7.9
Honda Accord 30,019 -0.3 221,013 -4.5
Nissan Rogue 29,844 -9.5 257,958  19.9
Chevrolet Equinox 28,245 84.9 185,223  16.9
Toyota Corolla / Matrix 25,995 -15.4 218,191 -10.8
Ford Escape 23,631 -15.8 208,303 -0.7
Jeep Grand Cherokee 23,572 28.1 158,975  17.4
Chevrolet Malibu 22,725 35.9 117,173 -21.3
Ford Explorer 20,747 -1.1 177,827  5.0
Subaru Outback 20,327 17.1 124,161  13.4
Toyota Highlander 18,845 25.9 137,837  23.0
Toyota Tacoma PU 17,394 13.1 129,362  1.9
Ford Fusion 17,378 -8.8 138,489 -27.1
GMC Sierra PU 17,254 -1.3 136,370 -6.8
Total PEV Sales,
 All Makes/Models 16,624 13.9 121,502 31.5

At this rate, PEV’s will finish second to the onset the next Quaternary glacial stage in the race to save the planet from Gorebal Warming!  Speaking of saving the planet…

I just can’t play that George Carlin video often enough!

As usual, any and all sarcasm and ridicule were 100% intentional… And I actually do think that Tesla cars are waaaaayyyy cool from a tech perspective.

Featured image borrowed from Agile Alliance.

what-elon-musk-taught-me-about-agile-startups-1024x694

Did anyone else notice that Elon Musk had a cameo in Iron Man 2?

 

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135 thoughts on “Tesla Narrowly Misses Q3 Model 3 Deliveries… by 83%

  1. My take is the Tesla story is more about “Made in California” than electric cars. As long as Tesla creates Cali jobs it will be highly subsidized.

  2. Grifters gonna grift! It has never been about selling environmentally correct cars, always about stealing tax dollars. I know! Lets us put our global energy production industry under the control of brilliant stuporgeniuses like Eeloon. What could possibly go wrong?

    • Let’s be honest – the car companies are just doing the stupid things we demand of them. Musk just recognized that people and governments were a lot dumber than people thought.

      By the way, a huge part of Tesla’s business model has NOT been selling cars, but selling ZEV certificates. That is to say, governments demanding a certain percentage of ZEV cars be sold, so ford, GM, etc. would just buy certificates from Tesla. That is how Tesla could sell cars at a loss and yet still move forward. Now that GM, ford, and everyone else is planning to make their own ZEVs, they don’t need Tesla.

      Tesla is the walking dead.

      This is why Tesla bought solar city while they still had the cash. They won’t have it in a few short years. Tesla can’t become Ford or GM faster than they can become Tesla. In fact, it has already happened with the Chevy Bolt.

      My prediction – Tesla as a car company stops making cars, and starts selling tech and parts to the majors. They become the Motorola of the automotive world. They focus on home batteries and solar panels, with a small luxury car nitch. If they were really smart, they’d focus on the supercharger network and start licensing that tech to everyone. Make the licenses really cheap and make money on the volume. Make every hotel and office building decide, what the heck, and install them.

      That or Tesla gets bought.

      • Really? The stupid things I demand of them are a 1ton, 4×4 truck under 25,000. When they gonna crank that out? Pretty sure 3-4 million other truck users would jump right on it, making for QUITE the massive profit. And yet, nada.

  3. As one who spent a career as a professional institutional investment researcher, I wouldn’t touch Tesla with a ten-foot pole.

    Not only would I not be a shareholder, I wouldn’t be a lender, a vendor or an employee. It’s a house of cards held together (temporarily) by subsidies, spit, glue, hype, hope and prayer.

  4. PS. Has anyone worked out how many electric cars have to be sold to offset the carbon footprint of rocket holidays to Mars?

    • AFAIK, electric cars have higher carbon footprint than usual cars, so they do NOT offset carbon footprint of rocket to mars.
      It may be the reverser way round: oneway tickets to mars for electric cars pusher would save us much money and carbon

      • Paq,

        I think is was something of 8 years of CO2 from an average sedan just to make an EV. So it would, all else equal, take +8 years of use, to offset it’s initial CO2 costs to build.

        A fellow WUWT reader might have the link. I never saved.

  5. Elon really needs to make up his mind about what he wants to do. He announces his next plan while it’s a sketch on a paper napkin and then goes on a hunt for financing. Last week, the announcement was that he was going to use rocket ships to move people from one city to another. Just like that – BOOM! He has spoken, thus it shall be. He’s getting kind of grandiose about all of this. I have dreams, too, but mine are about real things.

    I’m going to put in one good word here: I am grateful for the research into making cars with more fuel-efficient engines and combustion systems, because I can run a day’s worth of errands on one gallon of gas. That used to take 3 to 4 gallons. The difference in cost-effectiveness is visible and valid.

    What I don’t want is someone ramming an electric vehicle down my throat, telling me I have to use it whether I want to or not, for several reasons: I have NO place to charge it, as I have no garage; I have no desire to take a car like that to a charging station and sit for XXX hours while it charges up; and what in the blue-eyed world happened to those fuel cell cars that were supposed to be the real answer to all of this?

    And has anyone considered that taking the carbon we produce out of the atmospheric mix might very likely bring this interglacial period to a screeching halt?

    Thanks for the George Carlin video, David. I go back to that regularly now when I get frustrated by the silliness I see.

  6. First – there was the South Sea Bubble…

    Then there were tulip futures…

    Now……. there’s Tesla……

    • ‘a company for carrying out an undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is’

      Circa 1720

  7. This *is* what he does…

    Elon really needs to make up his mind about what he wants to do. He announces his next plan while it’s a sketch on a paper napkin and then goes on a hunt for financing.

    The cash deposits for his napkin sketches are a funding stream for a company that burns cash faster than a sailor on liberty in Subic Bay…

    Tesla is revealing a semitrailer this month that it won’t deliver for years — here’s why

    Matthew DeBord
    Sep. 6, 2017

    Tesla is expected to reveal a design for a semitrailer this month. CEO Elon Musk has been heralding this move into the freight business since last year, when he rolled out his “Master Plan, Part Deux.”

    According to Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker, the vehicle will be what’s known as a Class 8 truck — a great big old over-the-road semi designed to haul large amounts of stuff. Despite that, Shanker doesn’t think the Tesla semi will have a long-range battery delivering 600 or more miles of range; something like 300 miles is more realistic, because of battery costs, and Tesla will deal with the range issue by swapping batteries or enhancing its charging capabilities.

    In a note published Wednesday, Shanker suggested that Tesla wouldn’t start selling the semi until 2020, but that won’t prevent the company from lining up customers.

    “We expect Tesla to start taking orders for the truck from the day of the event (we estimate a refundable $5,000 deposit),” he wrote. “We believe this could set off competition for intelligent trucks in the industry.”

    Shanker calculates that the truck business could add up to almost $12 billion in business by 2028.

    This all sounds pretty good, but remember that Tesla has taken something on the order of 500,000 deposits for its Model 3 sedan, at $1,000 a pop. As of August, just more than 100 vehicles had been delivered as Tesla ramped up production. But even with an aggressive ramp, it will take Tesla years to fulfill those preorders.

    Shanker expects Tesla semi deposits to be refundable, and by now everyone knows that putting down some money to get a place in line to buy a Tesla can mean a bit of a wait. But in the short term, if Tesla debuts the semi alongside some industry partnerships and can encourage a healthy pace of preorders, it will have another funding stream at a time when its cash needs are rapidly intensifying.

    […]

    http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-semi-truck-deposits-provide-funding-morgan-stanley-2017-9

    • …faster than a sailor on liberty in Subic Bay! Hahahah – Sara falls down laughing! The tales sailors told me when I was just a young E-3!!

      • My older brother was a USMC E-5 MP. His tails about sailors generally revolved around hauling them to the brig… LOL!

    • Refundable deposits are Great …. that is until the company goes bust.

      Personally, with the number of outstanding orders and the current production rates I wouldn’t put Five pounds down as a deposit. As has been said it is a financial house of cards just waiting for the first puff of wind.

    • @David

      This *is* what he does…

      Elon really needs to make up his mind about what he wants to do. He announces his next plan while it’s a sketch on a paper napkin and then goes on a hunt for financing.

      The cash deposits for his napkin sketches are a funding stream for a company that burns cash faster than a sailor on liberty in Subic Bay…

      Elon reminds me of my son. Always flitting from project to project, not paying attention to the details, and never cleaning up after himself. Expects all the resources he needs to be handed to him gratis. But then, my son is seven years old.

    • Ah, liberty in Subic Bay! Who can forget that? Too bad “…we won’t go back to Subic anymore.”

  8. I saw an article saw this week hyped the 68% surge in PEV sales in China in August 2017. Quote from article “the really compelling statistic is the number of electric vehicles that made up the proportion of the 55,000 units sold ” The story goes on to say the PEV sales grew to 1.8% of total passenger vehicles. I’m not sure how 990 vehicles out of 55,000 units sold in the month is compelling.

  9. “The list of companies piling in added an unusual name last week when Dyson, who made billions making high-end vacuum cleaners, announced his foray into the electric car market. Dyson said his car will be radically different from the vehicles being designed by Tesla and the established carmakers.

    Read more: A vacuum billionaire’s quest to make a car that doesn’t suck”

    This will be truly groundbreaking — by reversing polarity, Dyson will create the first electric car that truly blows.

      • The ultimate in clean car technology, but WAIT, there is more!!!! If you call in the next 3 minutes you will get a second Q3 for just $19.95(plus shipping) so DON’T wait!!!!! My apologies to Billy Maize, my TV hawkster hero.

      • I’m holding out for a Popeil Pocket Fisherman…

        Toss in one of these and I’m ready to buy a PEV that doesn’t suck!

      • Ron Popeil, the single greatest unsung genius of the last 1000 years! Not just a prolific inventor, the man could sell ice to eskimos and leave them smiling with extra money in their pockets. He could have designed an electric car people could afford and would actually work as advertized and also cut mounds of julienne fries. Miss that man.

    • And that bring us into the neighborhood of the true issue, not the numbers of cars sold or deposits made for future delivery.

      What you all seem to miss is that at $35k for the “cheap” commuter version most of America cannot afford to own one of these without car loan on the order of a house payment. There is no way to economically recover the cost differential between a convention gas powered car and an electric car for mass production. The average American comparing the cost will naturally go with the gas fueled vehicle, not the electric one. Even IF you could recover all the cost over the life of the vehicle via fuel cost savings, basic economics says the interest value of the return on investment would be higher if the difference were invested. You would have to assume that the future price of gas would double or triple to justify the purchase.

      What this means is only the top 20% of wage earners can afford this type of vehicle. Now combine this with the fact that this price is reduced because the government has guaranteed Telsa a profit margin on each vehicle via subsidies.

      It is truly obscene that the top 20% gets to virtue signal on the backs of tax payers…most of whom will never be able to afford such a vehicle unless it is on the used car market. This is liberalism in a nutshell, cheapskates unwilling to put their money where their mouth is by making society pay for their virtue signaling.

      As to all these companies jockeying for a guaranteed profit margin, gee I wonder why? You might want to read James Madison, Federalist Paper # 62…just saying.

  10. ““Nobody doubts that the future will be electric,” said Erich Joachimsthaler, founder and CEO of brand-strategy firm Vivaldi”

    Delusional as well.

    • EXACTLY , the “suck” joke was the first thing I said to my wife when I heard the news of Dyson’s plans.

    • Reminds me of a skit from a comedy show in the UK in the 80’s staring Rik Mayall. Consider the scene, a wife asking her husband something about hoovers (Spoken in a Welsh accent);

      “Shadwell, why do ‘oovers suck?”
      “Because they got no teeth!”

  11. Obviously emphasis must be placed on development of the Di-Lithium crystal, first announced on Star Trek. Where is Scotty when we need him?

  12. I’m reminded of the Virtual Reality craze in Video Games. It was the “next big thing” for some time, and a large amount of venture capital was poured in, to create a few underwhelming consoles and huge losses for all involved.

    • Virtual Reality is a much bigger threat to the ICE than electric cars are. Anyone who’s tried Google Earth VR should be able to see that much of the reason for travel is about to disappear. Why move your body hundreds of miles when you can visit in VR, or rent a VR-controlled drone at the destination?

  13. The claim that automakers will introduce all electric models in the number of “50 by 2023” is all wet.
    A week ago, a count of the number of such models by an auto analyst numbered an even 100, not 50. And two days ago GM announced that it would introduce 23 all electric models before 2023, including an electric Corvette in 2022. That ups the total to well over 120 vehicles and there will likely be more added. BMW and Mercedes-Benz alone have said that they will offer 22 electric cars by then, with BMW claiming that every one of its models can be produced as either hybrid, all electric or gas powered on the same production line – the numbers built aligning with the current demand. That demonstrates one truism : an electric car is mostly the same as a gas powered car, which is pretty electrified as it is, except for the drive train. Ever since cars were invented, everyone, including Henry Ford, knew that, if a practical battery were available, an electric car had tons of advantages over any other technology, be it gas powered, steam powered, etc. Just look at the thousands of parts that an electric car doesn’t need – including no need for a transmision. Does anyone (except transmission shops and manufacturers) shed a tear for the elimination of a transmission? Or an exhaust system? Or a fuel system, etc.?? I sure don’t. If someone were to produce a DIY electric drivetrain conversion kit for my 57 Ford Thunderbird, I would have that installed in a long weekend. Ever tried to tune a carburetor? Or an ignition system? or replace an exhaust system ? I’d rather not, although I just did – took two weeks. And the classic Ford Thunderbirds are very unique – you can still buy new parts for just about every single nut and bolt and part in that car. Try to find parts for an 87 Chevy Monte Carlo. Good luck. I welcome with open arms the electric car , but it has very little to do with emissions. It is simply an intrinsically
    simpler, and therefore cheaper, and better way to build a car, which requires no drivetrain maintenance. We are almost there with respect to price and charging has gotten to the point that
    even if you have to use public DCFC (Direct Currrent Fast Chargers) , the time required is getting pretty short – 80% charge is roughly 30 minutes at 120kw , and now 350kw chargers are coming on board. People who can charge at home will only need to use public chargers for trips – no need to visit the local gas station.
    Tesla’s BIG problem has nothing to do with her current prodcution snags – they will be resolved
    shortly. Her big problem is competition and her loss of that $7500 buyer tax credit, which almost all of her competitiors still have. Try to sell a car that has a $7500 price disadvantage WRT it competitors, all of whom have world wide sales/servicing networks and loyal customers.
    Good liuck , Elon, who may turn out to be the biggest fool around yet. His company just paid the Feds tens of millions of dollars for fraudulent practices by her solar roof company. He is also getting sued by employees fired the day before they were due to be vested in the company’s stock. He also has labor problems.

    • The Model 3 will make or break Tesla. The inverse relationship between revenue and cash flow is unsustainable.

      Tony Stark Elon Musk will eventually run out of OPM and the corporate welfare checks will soon be a thing of the past. Tesla’s Federal tax credits will begin to phase out after they deliver they 200,000th PEV.  Based on current forecasts, that will occur in Q3 2018.


      “Current Expectations For $7,500 Federal Credit Phase-Out For Major US EV Makers (*aprox). Grey shaded areas are expected cumulative future sales in 000s. Colored blocks indicate stage of the Federal credit a particular OEM is at.” (Inside EVs)

      When other automakers sell enough EV’s in California, the ZEV welfare checks will go away.  Within 1 year of Model 3 full production, the Federal tax credit will start to phase out.  Tesla has yet to even come close to generating a annual profit, despite massive corporate welfare.  

      The question is: Will the government allow Tesla to go broke?  

      • No. Tesla grossed $7 billion in 2016, and lost $0.7 billion. A horrible company. However, most of the investment has been in California while many of the sales have been out of state. I look at Tesla as a rather good re-investment by the California government. What other investment has yielded this much revenue?

        David has been looking at Tesla using a normal lens. When the Federal subsidies end the State subsidies will increase until the next Democratic government is elected. Think of Tesla as a government corporation with one of the world’s best cheerleaders at the helm.

    • Point one. Paragraph breaks are your friend.

      It’s been a long time since most new cars came with a carburetor and electronic ignition control has removed the need to tune them as well.
      Most people don’t try to replace exhaust systems. On the rare occasion where that is necessary, they pay someone else to do it, or they just junk it if the car is old enough.

      Fast chargers dramatically shorten your battery life, which is already way to short.

      You will be replacing that battery pack long before you would have needed to replace an engine, and the engine is cheaper to replace to boot.

  14. (I posted the following on this site six weeks ago, at https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/08/19/road-trip-2/#comment-2585831)

    Mazda’s New “Skyactiv-X” Gasoline-Powered Diesel Engine

    On August 8, on the finance-oriented website Seeking Alpha, at https://seekingalpha.com/article/4096302-mazdas-new-invention-diesel-without-diesel?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-widget, Anton Wohlman posted an article titled “Mazda’s New Invention: Diesel, Without The Diesel.” Its summary contains the following:

    * Mazda looks to be first to mainstream production with a sort-of diesel engine that takes gasoline as its fuel.

    * This technological breakthrough looks to combine many of the best characteristics of diesel and gasoline engines alike.

    * Building on Mazda’s agreement with Toyota from April 2015, this may account for some of the expanded Mazda-Toyota partnership announced this week. … the most visible portion of this Toyota-Mazda agreement will be the building of a new factory in North America.

    * Mazda leads the Japanese diesel market, and perhaps it will now conquer the U.S. market with innovative engine technology as well.

    Here’s an impressive 3-minute video touting the “Skyactiv” diesel technology that preceded its new “Skyactiv-X” announcement: https://www.mazda.se/filmer/technology/skyactiv-diesel/

    Mazda’s August 8 press release is here: https://insidemazda.mazdausa.com/press-release/mazda-announces-long-term-vision-technology-development-sustainable-zoom-zoom-2030/ Its Item #2, about 2/3 down the page, describes the technological innovations and desirable features of the “Skyactiv-X Next-Generation Engine.” The key innovations are “maximizing the zone in which compression ignition is possible and achieving a seamless transition between compression ignition and spark ignition.”

    Here is a January 13 article on Autoguide.com, at http://www.autoguide.com/auto-news/2017/01/mazda-s-new-engine-tech-will-cut-fuel-consumption-by-a-third.html, titled “Mazda’s New Engine Tech Will Cut Fuel Consumption By a Third.” It states:

    The engine will be the first practical use of the technology, which is called homogeneous charge compression ignition. Although hybrids are becoming increasingly popular, the company believes the internal combustion engine will live on for the foreseeable future and its investment into a new engine reinforces that idea.

    By igniting the mix of air and fuel by subjecting them to pressure, the new engine will make combustion more efficient than conventional motors featuring spark plugs. The technology will also reduce exhaust emissions.
    …………
    As for electrified Mazdas, look for the Japanese automaker to begin mass producing EVs by 2019 and a plug-in hybrid introduced by 2021.

    Greater efficiency implies lower CO2 emissions. Several commenters defend the viability of EVs, partially in response to the first commenter on the Seeking Alpha thread, Yambol, who wrote:

    “LOL it is funny how I posted few comments around 2 weeks ago about the new ICE inventions and how this will make ICE cars superior for 50 to 100 more years. Combine that with the Toyota hybrid technology and no new technology will beat such ICE engine(s.) LOL good luck to all who believe in the alternative energy engines sci-fi.” (I.e., EV vehicles.)

    I don’t know if this is a flash in the pan, like the sort of never-heard-of-again breakthroughs sometimes featured in Popular Mechanics-type magazines. The expanded partnership with Toyota and the new North American factory they’re building gives me hope that this has real substance.

    • “Greater efficiency implies lower CO2 emissions. “

      It’s probably important to explain “lower emissions” resulting from higher efficiency doesn’t mean the combustion of fuel results in less CO2, only that there’s less fuel combustion per mile traveled.

      Any engine that burns fuel (any fuel) produces CO2. That needs to be made clear in the minds of many; no magic is happening here. The engine just burns less fuel to produce the same amount of work, therefor CO2 is reduced per unit of work.

  15. huge spending ? no return? After having seen (and loved) the TV show “ozark”, it looks like the second best money-laundering scheme in the world.

  16. It looks like his plan to build a city on Mars is just to distract us from the reality of his incompetence.

    • Oh, now, stop giving away the real purpose of the Man Behind the Curtain!

      Just because WE know it’s all smoke and mirrors, and Toto can pull the curtain aside, doesn’t mean you’re entitle to let the truth come into the light.

  17. How much raw material must be dug
    up to provide the raw materials to produce
    a 1200lb electric car battery?
    ( That lasts about 7 years before needing to
    be replaced)

  18. Speaking of the cars rather than the company, I think the Model 3 will be a hard sell to the general public just based on the fact that there are no adjustable AC outlet vents, and no instruments or controls in front of the driver (they’re all on the center-mounted tablet). …. If you thought texting on the phone in your lap was distracting, consider the distraction of tasks such as turning on the windshield wipers being on a touch screen not even in front of you.

    • It’s okay, the excuse generator for accidents at Tesla is as powerful as the bluster machine.

    • This is absolutely the poorest user interface decision that’s been made by car manufacturers, who seem to be in thrall to Apple and have completely ignored proper interface design for cars and aircraft in favor of the one they’d used for phones, which coincidentally has resulted in a marked increase in sidewalk collisions over the past decade.

      It’s purely stupid to put a touch screen interface with no tactile feedback in a vehicle.

      Dumb. Idiotic. Dangerous.

      • “Bartleby October 3, 2017 at 9:30 am

        …which coincidentally has resulted in a marked increase in sidewalk collisions over the past decade.”

        This annoys me no end. I walk fast, most people can’t keep up when I walk at full chat, and I constantly have to dodge these idiots gawping in to their phones walking in such a way as to prevent me from passing. There is in fact a Govn’t safety ad campaign screening on TV here in Australia where someone jaywalks across a road while gawping in to a phone and promptly gets smashed by a car. Of course the driver of the car would be held responsible.

  19. According to Wall Street Journal, the 260 car figure is even more questionable: “Tesla delivered only 220 Model 3s during the quarter, well below the 1,300 that analysts surveyed by FactSet expected on average. Tesla sold these first Model 3 vehicles in the quarter to employees and investors and expects to begin delivering them to non-employees in the final three months of the year.”

    • And this is when I want to find a 1970s Chevy Impala and restore it to working order, put a glass pack in the muffler and snort right past one of those EVersusers.

      • You can buy a brand new 350 c.i. V8 engine for your ’72 Impala for about 1/2 the cost of a 60 kWh battery!

        By 2030, the cost of a 60 kWh battery could fall to only being 33% more expensive than a 350 V8.

    • One more good reason to buy up older cars from the 60’s forward to about 1996 and restore them. The way things are going, they’re a better investment than gold.

    • They are expanding from 0.1% all the way up to 1.0%. Assuming they can find enough people who actually want to buy them.

    • “Chris October 3, 2017 at 9:18 am

      The automotive manufacturers are moving to EVs in a big way.”

      I don’t think so. I worked for Honda in Swindon in the UK, it costs makers millions to re-tool for any change in the manufacturing process. So, if makers are re-tooling for an entirely new power plant and drivetrain makers would only do that if they can see a market and can make a profit. The market isn’t there for EV’s because most, practical, people know there are not enough charging points, the range of an EV is pitiful and simply cannot perform as well as a conventional vehicle. That’s why when I walked past a Tesla dealer here in Sydney, Australia one lunchtime, I saw the entire lot full of Teslas, two on charge. I didn’t see anyone driving out of or in to the dealership, nor did I see anyone just looking at the cars on offer. The dealership was empty, except for stationary Teslas. EV’s in Australia are only popular with, rich, latte sipping city dwellers. Anyone that needs to get from A to B, and long distance, uses an ICE powered vehicle.

  20. I think I’m in a minority of one here. I think Tesla is great, Musk is following a long plan, and barring accidents will bury Ford, GM, Mercedes et. al. the way Nikon and Canon buried Kodak and Seiko buried the mass market Swiss watch industry.

    The rest of the Western automakers haven’t a clue what they are doing. They may produce electric models, but unless they get their act together they won’t be able to scale production, and people won’t buy them for lack of decent fast charge.

    • The big auto makers have the experience and established infrastructure, Telsa does not. EVs aren’t that complicated. If battery technology evolves to a practical level, the big automakers will bury Telsa.

      • I Came I Saw I Left: you mean like IBM buried Google, Remington built the best word processor and Adler dominate the calculator market. I repeat: the established automakers haven’t a clue what they are doing in this market. They should have been building battery factories and rolling out fast charge before they started announcing loads of new EVs. Even the Chevy Bolt has a wholly Korean drive train

      • What does IBM have to do with Google? They don’t even compete in the same market.

        The reason the major auto makers aren’t investing in battery factories is because they know EVs will sit on the lots with few buyers. Hardly anyone wants the current technology. Fast charge stations won’t change that (who wants to sit at the “gas pump” for 30 or more minutes?). If, however, the technology developed to a point that people actually wanted EVs, then fast charge stations would spring up everywhere built by people who want to make money.

      • “John Hardy October 3, 2017 at 12:22 pm

        They should have been building battery factories and rolling out fast charge before they started announcing loads of new EVs.”

        I am pretty sure Ford didn’t build petrol stations and roads before making and selling the model “T”.

      • “I am pretty sure Ford didn’t build petrol stations and roads before making and selling the model “T”.”

        Irrelevant.

        You can carry petrol in cans on a truck, on a horse and cart or even on your back – something you can’t do with electrons, and no special connectors or other gear is necessary to get the fuel into the tank.

        And Ford Model “T”s didn’t require paved roads, they will go where a horse and cart goes.

      • “catweazle666 October 3, 2017 at 5:01 pm

        Irrelevant.”

        Not really. John’s post suggested car makers haven’t a clue and should build battery factories and fast charging points before announcing the actual cars that will use that infrastructure. Did Boeing build airports before announcing it was going to make 747’s?

      • “Did Boeing build airports before announcing it was going to make 747’s?”

        Even more irrelevant.

        Airports had existed for over half a century before Boing introduced 747s.

    • I think I’m in a minority of one here. I think Tesla is great, Musk is following a long plan, and barring accidents will bury Ford, GM, Mercedes et. al. the way Nikon and Canon buried Kodak and Seiko buried the mass market Swiss watch industry.

      The rest of the Western automakers haven’t a clue what they are doing. They may produce electric models, but unless they get their act together they won’t be able to scale production, and people won’t buy them for lack of decent fast charge.

      Your comments assumes that there actually will be a market large enough for expensive, battery operated toys to make up for Tesla’s losses.
      Duesenbergs they are not.
      (Maybe Western automakers do have a clue?)

    • John, in the long term it is Tesla that is toast. The electric car has limited capability in the real world. The other automakers know exactly what they are doing. Without subsidies the auto industry can kill any company in just a few bad years.

      There will be a time that California cannot continue funding Tesla. I believe that time is several years away, but that time will come. My prediction is 2023.

  21. That’s exactly what people said about Jeff Bezos back in 1997. Looks like they were wrong, even though he was going up against incumbents with 100X Amazon’s sales.

    • Like most retailers, Amazon has never been particularly profitable; but it has almost always generated positive cash flow.

      Including free cash flow…

      Tesla just burns cash as it moves from one Ponzi scheme to the next…

      The more revenue Tesla generates, the more cash it burns…

      Companies can survive or even thrive for long periods without net earnings (profits); but they can’t survive very long with negative cash flow… unless they are run by people like Tony Stark Elon Musk who can harvest OPM and corporate welfare faster than they can spend it.

    • They were wrong about X, therefore they are wrong about Y.

      Is that really the limit to your rhetorical skills?

  22. Still waiting for someone to tell me who is paying for all the charging stations and when they will be installed. Then where and how exactly the electricity will be produced to power the charging stations. One of the great miracle technologies of 20th Century was the petroleum/ gasoline distribution system. Most people don’t even have a clue how safe and efficient the system is. About the only time they think about it is when they pull in the gas station. In Florida just before Irma, before we knew it would hit, people were complaining about price gouging. The majority didn’t have a clue that our gasoline game from refineries along the Texas coast that had just been shut down by Harvey. Now imagine a hurricane or some other even taking out the power grid or every body hooking up for enough juice to evacuate before a storm hits. Geez!

  23. Amazon loaded up on debt – long term debt increased by $10B between 2011 and 2015. Once again, you trot out the corporate welfare criticism – tell me, which fossil fuel companies do not get substantial corporate welfare?

    [???? .mod]

    • The ability to write off expenses in the year they occur, rather than writing them off over the life of an asset isn’t “corporate welfare”

      Government forcing taxpayers to pay part of the purchase price of your product is corporate welfare. Government forcing your competitors to send you money is corporate welfare.

      • Government forcing people to buy your product when they would rather buy someone else’s is corporate welfare.

  24. But surely this is good news . . . If they lose money on every car sold, selling fewer means less money lost.

  25. Only had to modify this slightly…scary.

    ELON: I’m completely changing how you’re gonna drive. You’re not gonna believe it when you see it. A whole new lifestyle.
    JERRY: What are you doing?
    ELON: Electric cars.
    JERRY: Electric cars?
    ELON: Yeah, I’m getting rid of all the gas-powered cars. All of them. And I’m going to build these different electric cars, with racing stripes, and they’ll all be tricked with a lot of software. You know, like ancient Detroit.
    JERRY: You drew up plans for this?
    ELON: No, no. It’s all in my head.
    JERRY: When do you intend to do this?
    ELON: Ohh.. should be done by the end of the month.
    JERRY: You’re doing this yourself?
    ELON: It’s a simple job. Why, you don’t think I can?
    JERRY: Oh, no. It’s not that I don’t think you can. I know that you can’t, and I’m positive that you won’t.
    ELON: Well, I got the tools. I got the factory. All I need are the customers. And maybe some taxpayer money.
    JERRY: I don’t see it happening.
    ELON: Well, this time, this time you’re wrong. C’mon. I’ll even bet you.
    JERRY: Seriously?
    ELON: A big dinner with dessert. But I’ve got till the end of the year.
    JERRY: I’ll give you a decade.
    ELON: No, no, no. End of the year.
    JERRY: It’s a bet. (They both “pinkie swear” to lock the deal)
    (Scene ends)
    JERRY: So, how are your electric cars coming along?
    ELON: Oh, well.. I decided I’m not gonna do it.
    JERRY: (Sarcastically) Really? What a shock. So, when do I get my dinner?
    ELON: There’s no dinner. The bet’s off. I’m not gonna do it.
    JERRY: Yes. I know you’re not gonna do it. That’s why I bet.
    ELON: There’s not bet if I not doing it.
    JERRY: That’s the bet! That you’re not doing it!
    ELON: Yeah, well, I could do it. I don’t want to do it.
    JERRY: We didn’t bet on if you wanted to. We bet on if it would be done.
    ELON: And it could be done.
    JERRY: Well, of course it could be done! Anything could be done! But it only is done if it’s done. Show me the electric cars! The bet is the electric cars.
    ELON: But I don’t want the electric cars!
    JERRY: That’s the bet!

      • Yes, there are far many warmists who could fit in there, aren’t there?

        BTW, in case people didn’t get this, its a classic Seinfeld sketch (actually, a sub-plot of a classic episode “The Pony”) where Kramer decides he is going to totally renovate his apartment by putting in “levels”. Jerry knows he won’t do it, bets him he won’t, then we get Kramer’s typical obfuscation, etc.

        The difference is, Kramer is a fictional character, and Musk, Stokes, etc. are supposed to be the smart ones telling us how to live our lives.

        Then again, as they say, truth is stranger than fiction. Fiction has to make sense.

  26. Only good thing about tesla car is that the name of the great American-Serbian inventor Nikola Tesla may be brought to the attention of few inquisitive youngsters.
    However, tesla (lower case ‘t’) is a ‘high’ technology product as shown in this image , and it is not an electric car.
    hope is that two shell not met in hands of a frustrated owner.

    • Ford was a nasty man, esp to his mostly non-English speaking migrant workers. Also gave profits to Hitler.

  27. It is ok he is busy installing the worlds biggest battery in South Australia apparently 50% complete well within his 100 day claim. Must have started well early as a concrete block that size takes weeks to cure before you can build on it.

  28. Quote: … General Motors Co. raised the stakes Monday by pledging to sell 20 all-electric vehicles by 2023 …

    And I believe them. So let’s count the numbers here at WUWT. Anthony has already got one. Anybody else?

    I did however like the idea of GM “launching” two vehicles. God bless them and all who sail in them he says as the champagne bottle smashes into the bow.

    Or maybe they meant models rather than vehicles.

  29. Based on the extra emissions to build these things….unless you get a virtually CO2 free electricity supply, the CO2 savings from electric cars appears minimal. Its actually amazing the amount of effort to save so little. Building fewer things is the best strategy for reducing CO2….but corporate cronies don’t want that. One thing these green profiteers have in common is way overselling the results because they know people want to believe them.

  30. So all these car companies are building cars that the consumers don’t want?

    Do I have that right?

    Because that sounds like a perfect case for stockholders to sue the companies for financial malfeasance.

    • The automakers are building cars that government regulations are forcing them to build. Stockholders should sue the government for financial malfeasance.

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