'Exceedingly early frost' possible for U.S. Corn Belt next week

From NOAA’s Climate prediction Center:

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

300 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2017

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR SEPTEMBER 2017

THE BACKGROUND CLIMATE DRIVERS REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THE 0.5-MONTH LEAD FORECAST. THE MJO HAS RECENTLY EMERGED OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN, BUT ITS FUTURE

EVOLUTION IS UNCERTAIN. THE DEVELOPMENT OF HURRICANE IRMA IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT MJO EVOLUTION, BUT BEYOND THAT THERE IS LITTLE

TROPICAL VARIABILITY TO HARVEST FOR THE MONTHLY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THE UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK MAINLY TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT ONE TO TWO WEEKS, WITH SOME MINOR INFLUENCE FROM THE LATEST WEEKS 3-4 GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN THAT WAS DISCUSSED FOR THE 0.5-MONTH LEAD FORECAST IS FORECAST TO BE ESPECIALLY AMPLIFIED DURING THE FIRST

5-10 DAYS OF THE MONTH, THOUGH SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST THAN WAS FORECAST A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO. THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN DOMINATES THE UPDATED MONTHLY FORECAST,

WITH SOME TENDENCY TOWARD THE LONG-TERM TREND MORE LIKELY LATE IN THE MONTH. THE IMPACT OF THIS ON THE MONTHLY FORECAST IS TO SHIFT AREAS OF PROBABILITIES

EAST, WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS.

More here

From Agweb:

The growing season has been anything but normal for farmers in the Corn Belt. They have been plagued with flooding, replanting, drought, not enough heat and other issues. Following the Farm Journal Midwest Crop Tour, many farmers have been praying an early frost won’t come their way.

But it could be knocking on their door much sooner than anticipated.

On AgriTalk, meteorologist Michael Clark of BAMWX.com told host Mike Adams parts of the northern and western Corn Belt could see a “strong cold front that could get sharply colder  next week.”

Between September 6 and 10, northern Illinois, northern Iowa, northern Nebraska, the Dakotas, Minnesota and Wisconsin could possibly see frost.

“There’s a lot of evidence of that,” Clark told host Mike Adams. “We’ve been talking about that since [Aug. 2] in our data analysis.”

Clark said part of the reason for the cold front is because of Hurricane Harvey. He said normally a cold front follows a hurricane, and three things are lining up for areas to see a frost in early September.

  • A western U.S. ridge is forming. The heat in the Pacific Northwest causes the ridge to expand, which will dislodge colder air into the Plains.
  • A high pressure system near Greenland.
  • There’s a typhoon forming in the western Pacific Ocean which could add more of a risk of cold in September.

With these factors aligning, Clark said on the morning of Sept. 7, lows could fall between 34 and 39 degrees—between 15 and 18 degrees colder than normal—that would be a “legitimate threat” of an exceedingly early frost.

More, here

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And four days later a Cat 5 Hurricane slams in from the other side. It may as well be raining blood and frogs, as far as the religious CAGW fervor will explode.

Pamela Gray

Could happen on the Pacific side as well but if it does, weather patterns it affects in the US are the important measures of a Pacific Typhoon, not the typhoon itself.

Tom Halla

The True Believers will still spin this as AGW.

Cliff Hilton

Tom Halla
The grass has not needed to be cut as often this late summer. Weird! I live 20 minutes west of the Louisiana/Texas border. Like, the back yard really doesn’t need much cutting this year. Especially the last 4 weeks. I believe you’re a Texas boy. What about your yard duties this year?

Tom Halla

Yes, I live in Cottonwood Shores (suburban Austin). The grass has been about average this year, although last winter was unusually mild.

Barbee

We live in Terrell (East of Dallas along I20) and we have been cutting like crazy! Our acreage is bermuda grass/pasture and with the cool temps plus ample rain the growing season never ended. Normally we have a summer dormant season and that hasn’t happened yet. I say: “Yet” because Summer isn’t over.

wws

Over in Tyler here – all my plants think they’re in the Garden of Eden. So do all of the insects!!!

sy computing

About 20 min. south of Ft Worth it’s all the poor wife can do to keep up with the rotary mower!

The Rick

Oh CO2 is there anything you cannot warm? (ya, the midwest next week)

Phoenix44

Already happening, the BBC is describing it as “more extreme weather”.

Gloateus

Whatever doesn’t fit the story is either just WX or due to “climate change”, even if it’s cooling.

leopoldo Perdomo

I wrote a story about some situation looking very bad of freezing cold, and some friends got trapped in a cabin in a mountain. One of them was telling this cold was caused by the anthropogenic global warming and could be the starting of a new glacial age.

Gloateus

An hypothesis which claims to explain everything explains nothing.
No matter what happens, it’s our fault and it’s bad.

tom0mason

Just remember it’s not the sun. No nothing to do with the sun.
It’s worse that you think — all that vile CO2 is warming the West of the country so much forcing climate change to revisit the unprecedented regime similar to the 1960s.
That CO2 is so spiteful, CO2 turns back time, recycling the past. What next? Lots of hurricanes and tornadoes, or worse — drug addled hippies!.
There will be a great chattering of teeth…

Scott

Upper Michigan Yoopers were scraping frost off the car ten days ago (Aug 24). Parts of Lower Michigan also had frost warnings, but I’m not sure if frost actually happened there.

captainfish

dem crazy, da yoopers!

cjames

It did in the interior parts of the northern half of the lower peninsula. The town of Leota in Clare County dropped to 30 degrees twice, but they are traditionally a very cold spot.

ren

This weather pattern is perfectly visible in the stratosphere.
http://files.tinypic.pl/i/00930/blfytpelchaj.png
http://pics.tinypic.pl/i/00930/ixmtunpmw7ia.png

I have been saving daily screenshots of the changes occurring in that low spot in upper Siberia for the last 3 months. I noticed the change towards cooling which have been driven by arctic surface winds flowing south towards the Himalayas along that corridor since late June. Imo, this has the potential to lead to a very cold winter in Europe at the end of this year.

Phoenix44

Already had pretty heavy snow in eastern Siberia and in the mountains of Germany.

ren

El Niño indexes are falling.comment imagecomment image

Greg

peak correlation of Nino 3.4 and global average occurs at a log of about 5months. Though I have not looked at corn belt, circulation in N. Pacific goes clockwise so it is unlikely to be much shorter if this is direct causation.

Greg

comment image

Greg

clear periodicity in the positive ( causation ) side of the cross-correlation : 272no / 6 = 45 mo. or 3.8 years.

Menicholas

The Arctic has had below normal temps every day since last May.
The Arctic melt season appears to be over, although there is still time for a little more thawing.
But the Sun will set on the North pole in a few weeks, and the long night will spiral out from there.
Several weeks ago, Greenland set an all time low temperature record, after gaining what for much of the year was a record amount of new snow.
Lots of people have been looking for some sharply cooler temps in the years to come…is this how it starts?
I do not know…been a long time since a sustained global cooling set in.
The Sun has a few spots right now, but August was remarkably spot free on many days.
A killing frost in the most productive agricultural region of the world might get some attention, where little else has.

3¢worth

According to Global News the Royal Newfoundland Constabulary reported snow falling in Newfoundland/Labrador on August 31/September 1. globalnews.ca/labrador. The shape of things to come this winter? Damn this Global Warming!

Stewart Pid
Bruce Cobb

As long as the ethanol producers get their supply of corn, that’s all that matters.

Greg

Californian vehicles always get fed first, so it looks like 3rd world will be starving again this year.

Greg

Buy ethanol futures now 😉

Brian Bingham

Growing potatoes in Idaho, I got snowed on the 4th of July 1966. It is all just weather.

Greg

Wow, maybe an early frost means England will win the football world cup again, at last.

Dave

No chance

Cliff Hilton

Any chance the ice lose, for the year, has stopped? Like maybe August 30th?

Gloateus

Arctic sea ice actually grew on Aug 29, but has resumed a slow decline since then.
At this point, can’t say whether the corner will be turned in a week, two or three weeks. Looking as if it might be earlier in Sept than average, however this year.
But, as Griff’s betters told the loser, a new record low this year was a non-starter.
We’ve now gone five years without a new low, which has not happened in the dedicated satellite record, ie since 1979.

Menicholas

Looks like someone named Tony is gonna lose the “Ice Free Arctic” bet I took him up on last Winter, right here as I recall.
I thought I had bookmarked the page, but cannot find it…anyone else?

ren

Decline in ozone production (fall in stratosphere temperature) over the equator.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_ALL_EQ_2017.png

Poly

Ren,
Please tell us what do you think are the consequences of this.

ren

I think that may have an impact on the circulation of the jet stream in the stratosphere.
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/zu_nh.gif
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/zu_sh.gif
The contour interval is 5 m/s.

vukcevic

‘Exceedingly early frost’ (autumn) may be a nuisance, but an ‘exceedingly late frost’ (spring) could be the absolute disaster in many agri-businesses.

AZ1971

‘Exceedingly early frost’ (autumn) may be a nuisance, but an ‘exceedingly late frost’ (spring) could be the absolute disaster in many agri-businesses.

So very true. Yes, farmers would enjoy a full growing season with no early frost, especially since the number of heat days in the Corn Belt have been kinda ‘meh’ this year with surplus rain, replantings, and cool summer temperatures which are not the preferred growing conditions for corn. But a late frost will knock out virtually all productions of apples, pears, peaches, plums, cane berries, and more. And there is far more value to those food stocks than sticking processed and refined corn juice into the human diet.

Menicholas

I recall we had some very late and severe frosts last Spring.
In the southern US peach regions, and in France wine country, to name the two that come to mind first.

I know that its only weather but there is heavy snow on the European Alps and Southern Australia is pretty cold at the moment, well below August means predicted for this week in early September. This shouldn’t mean much as there are places that are hot but what would have the effect been on global “mean” temperatures in 1900?

Dave

There are no ski runs open in France. So where is the heavy snow in Europe?

vukcevic

Knowing the French, they are probably on yet another strike.

Phoenix44

Germany. Had a decent fall this weekend.

Dave

Found it the Stubaier Glacier in Austria seems to have had its first snow on the 1st and 2nd of Sept. Three of its 26 runs are open! But lat year it was on the 6th of August. Being a glacier there is permanent ice there. So the snow falls on frozen “ground”.

Dave

Sorry there is another ski resort in Austria open, the Hintertuxer glacier. But that is no news as it is normally open throughout the yeas, again its a glacier.

Robert, I was thinking the same not about the global mean but about the Oz mean, especially when I read that Australia had the hottest winter ever:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-01/australia-winter-2017-was-hot-dry-and-a-record/8862856
BoM has decided to cut off the climate data at 1910, and this article suggests that perhaps 1910 is the cut off for this warmest weather record. The warmth was recorded across the vast empty north, which in the warm 1930s remained mostly unexplored–without too many Stevenson Screens. The hubris of this ABC news article is the claim that BoM predicted it. In fact, BoM predicted cooler in the north but a warm-dry Winter in the south (where most of us live). It did not look good for the ski season, even as an early winter fall got the lifts going early. Turns out the inverse was true for temperatures and so frosts was a problem for farmer. The other worry for farmers is low rainfall, and it was low in some areas. But, in the south east, from late spring to late winter rainfall rainfall pretty much evened out to average. The snow is deep and about to get deeper and the ski season extended the other end as well. So, in all, on key points, BoM failed to help those who might find seasonal predictions useful.

I noticed that its just one corner of WA that had high maximums. Considering what has happened to measurements since 2000, that’s not a surprise but not likely to be real.
http://joannenova.com.au/2017/09/bom-scandal-one-second-records-in-australia-how-noise-creates-history-and-a-warming-trend/
The there is the issue with record min temperatures being deleted.
http://joannenova.com.au/2017/08/bom-had-smart-cards-to-filter-out-coldest-temperatures-full-audit-needed-asap/
My point was a that in 1900, nearly the whole temperature record was in areas that are now in very cold. How could it be possible that an accurate global mean could have been calculated in 1900? There is no station in that big red area of WA that is still open and goes back further than 1950.

There is no station in that big red area of WA that is still open and goes back further than 1950.

Robert, precisely my agreement with you. And, even if we accept the cut off at 1910, it would be interesting to analysis how the BoM came to make the claim for Warmest Winter even since 1910. Maybe it was still warmest even by using only those stations available across the north before WWII (Darwin, Northern Qld etc). Maybe. Maybe not. Interesting to see if Nova or Marohasy investigated. The claim does not seem to have been widely promoted, and if it were it would surely have been scoffed at by the majority of Australians in the South Eastern corner as they froze through winter and now this southerly blasts away a whole week of spring sunshine.

dmacleo

mid maine here, already had 37 deg F mornings.
also super wet spring and super dry summer/fall.
personal observations look to me like much cooler overall this year.

JBom

With so much “fuel” for the “fire” been waiting for the Calvinist Faction (Sinners is a Sinn’n and God’s a Grin’n; You are Guilty! You Mushed be Punished … PUNISHED! [with a Bavarian accent]) of the CAGW terrorist cult to emerge.
Reverend: “Will you go the Heaven or go to Hell?
Mob: “Go to Hell!”
Reverend: “Either repent of Fair-the-well?
Mod: “Fair-the-well!”
Ha ha

AZ1971

Ahh yes, the 1969 classic musical “Paint Your Wagon”, starring a young Clint Eastwood in his only singing role, Lee Marvin, and Ray Walston. One of my favorite movies of all time! Jean Seberg was so-o-o-o-o hot, and the scene where she nonchalantly explains to the Mormon family visiting them that she’s married to both Lee and Clint is hilarious. Thanks for the memories!

Pamela Gray

Prepare for supposedly highly educated AGW experts bringing out their big guns with the term “climate weirding”. WTF!!! Did they not pass 5th grade vocabulary? I bet they say doodoo for #2 as well.

Farming is a really tough business. They are never masters of their own destiny.

RBlan

I don’t get it. They call themselves a “Climate Prediction Center” and issue 30-day outlooks? Didn’t that used to be called “weather forecasting”? I thought that climate would involve weather factors averaged over more like 30 years than 30 days.
Do I need to go back to school? Or is it possible that name has something to do with how you attract appropriations of tax money?

Richard G.

Get a pilot’s flight service weather briefing some time. You will get current weather, a 3 hour prediction, a 6 hour prediction, a 9 hour prediction and a 12 hour prediction. Any thing farther out than 12 hours is called an outlook. For a good reason. You can not predict the weather beyond 12 hrs, and the farther out from the current weather, the less reliable the prediction it is.

RalphB

Richard reminds us “You can not predict the weather beyond 12 hrs.” So that would mean when you predict the state of the atmosphere 13 hours from now you’re no longer doing meteorology, you’re doing climatology! I like that. Why settle for mastering half a day when you could master the limitless future? I learn something new every day. Climatology could be the up-and-coming field.

Chris Norman.

The planet is cooling and no amount of discussion is going to stop it. No phony graphs, no opinions, no alarmism, nothing. and life is going to get very very tough.
The last Maunder Minimum saw death from starvation and cold as a matter of routine. Also there is some link between great cold and the plague.

Pamela Gray

No. We are at a climate optimum for at least the next multiple thousands of years. Serious long term globally deadly cooling is at least 5000 to 10,000 years away.

Menicholas

Oh, Janice!
Tempting fate like that?
Golly.

Alan Robertson

Pardon, but you are talking to Pamela.
Pamela is red- headed and Janice is not. You can tell them apart, that way.
Or, by their names, I guess.

Timo Soren

NWS Climate Prediction Center (1 month outlook)
Ahh…. that’s called weather, period.

2hotel9

Here in Butler County PA we were already down to 41 degrees 3 nights in a row, thats the 29th, 31st of Aug and 1st of Sep. Where the phuck is the Man Caused Globall Warmining? 0.001c is not Man Caused Globall Warmining, it is a convenient, politically motivated LIE!!!!!!

Bill Gannon

With this post so far down, it’s almost meaningless to post this but—-Keep an eye on the crop reports from 46 degrees north and above. Have read some things about persistent showers and lack of sunshine, across Europe, Asia and Canada. Just a reminder last year Canada lost wheat and canola in October from early snows. If it should happen this year that’ could be the start of a trend.

Menicholas

60th comment is not very far down. Many threads have over 200 before they wind down.

jmichna

Early frost in the Corn Belt next week… guess Al Gore must be planning a visit to lecture on MMGW….

alfredmelbourne

In Australia, the skiing season is going to be quite exceptional – back to the future.
“Australia enters into snowiest week of the year after hottest winter on record”
http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/australia-enters-into-snowiest-week-of-the-year-after-hottest-winter-on-record/news-story/b50491ea3ea494eaec3410d963c4d6f9
Forget about this “hottest” nonsense – they are changing the measurements to suit their political agenda. The snow, they cannot deny.
“Blizzards, avalanches, snow on the hills? Welcome to springtime in Victoria ”
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/blizzards-avalanches-snow-on-the-hills-welcome-to-springtime-in-victoria-20170903-gya1ng.html

el gordo

‘Mr Watkins said Australia had experienced a late start to the snow season due to cold fronts being blocked by high pressure systems. He said the snow season didn’t kick into full gear until early August.’
The intensification of the high pressure belt is a global warming meme, but now its collapsed I’m calling it a regional cooling signal.
The traditional August winds have turned up in September and they have the audacity to call them Spring winds.

I posted in 2015:
“All of our 2002 statements have now proved correct except one. Our sole remaining prediction from 2002 is for global cooling to commence by 2020-2030. We now think global cooling will be apparent by 2020 or sooner, possibly as early as 2017 after the current El Nino runs its course.”
I really hope to be wrong abut this…
Full post at:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/12/24/1800s-poverty-diseases-malnutrition-surge-in-green-britain/comment-page-1/#comment-2106109

I emailed Joe d’Aleo of WeatherBell and asked his opinion on this article.
He replied: “Chilly air mass for September but no damaging frost or freeze. 40s mainly.”
Gentlemen: Start your combines!

2hotel9

Corn pickin’ time be acomin’! A lot of corn in our immediate area(western PA north of Pittsburgh) got planted a bit late due to rain, looking pretty good in spite of that. We are looking at overnight lows in mid to low 40s already.

Mark Whitney

The report mentions a high pressure system near Greenland. This pushes cooler air south over parts of the US and Britain/Europe. I read an article that stated these ‘Greenland High’ conditions as they are known in Britain have become more common since 2007, the greatest cluster of them in the last 150 years or so. Of course they blame it on global warming and Arctic melt.
My understanding is that one of the characteristics of the Little Ice Age other than the dearth of sun spots was the persistence of the Greenland High and accompanying unsettled weather. God forbid that such a period may be looming upon the Northern Hemisphere again.

Rob

There was a very light frost here last night just west of Edmonton. Roof tops were just a little white this morning.

SAMURAI

The unsubstantiated belief in the CAGW hypothesis will eventually be a VERY costly mistake to farmers around the world.
In particular, over the past 30 years, coffee growers have started expanding cultivation of coffee beans at higher and higher elevations (the highest elevations produce the highest quality coffee beans) however, this is just a temporary phenomenon.
Looking at past global temp data, global temp fluctuations are sinusoidal and highly correlated to 30-yr PDO/AMO warm/cool cycles. When both the PDO and AMO are in their respective 30-year cool cycles from 2019, I anticipate coffee growers will eventually lose $billions from frost lost on all the high-elevation coffee cultivation areas added over the past 30 years.
Coffee growers should actually be expanding their coffee production to lower elevations as it takes about 4 years for newly planted coffee plants to produce high quality coffee beans.
Eventually, the high-elevation frost line will likely revert to where it was in the late 1970’s. Moreover, if solar cooling adds to global cooling as many astrophysicists predict, coffee cultivation at higher elevations could be further wiped out and the safe frost line will be further lowered.
This is just another reason why CAGW is such a dangerous and costly hypothesis.

Fergie

Re: Samurai’s Comment Above
In author Helen Bromfield Geld’s (daughter of famous author Louis Bromfield) book, “The View From the Fazenda” about she and her husband establishing a farm in Brazil in the 60’s and 70’s, she talks in detail about the frosts wiping out much of the coffee production there in the late 70’s. Coffee not only doesn’t bloom and produce bean when it frosts, it dies as a plant in most cases. They survived and went to livestock farming, but many farmers didn’t make it, causing a great deal of social upheaval in the rural parts of Brazil. A cautionary tale for many of our currently prosperous corn farmers!

tango

spring in Australia http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-06/vic-weather-strong-winds-alpine-blizzards-forecast/8778700 well over a 100 cm of snow a lot more to come

James at 48

Even here on the West Coast we’re to have an early season cold front later this week. Rain line may actual be just south of the Bay Area.

James at 48

actual -> actually ….