From NOAA’s Climate prediction Center:
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2017
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR SEPTEMBER 2017
THE BACKGROUND CLIMATE DRIVERS REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THE 0.5-MONTH LEAD FORECAST. THE MJO HAS RECENTLY EMERGED OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN, BUT ITS FUTURE
EVOLUTION IS UNCERTAIN. THE DEVELOPMENT OF HURRICANE IRMA IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT MJO EVOLUTION, BUT BEYOND THAT THERE IS LITTLE
TROPICAL VARIABILITY TO HARVEST FOR THE MONTHLY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
THE UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK MAINLY TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT ONE TO TWO WEEKS, WITH SOME MINOR INFLUENCE FROM THE LATEST WEEKS 3-4 GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN THAT WAS DISCUSSED FOR THE 0.5-MONTH LEAD FORECAST IS FORECAST TO BE ESPECIALLY AMPLIFIED DURING THE FIRST
5-10 DAYS OF THE MONTH, THOUGH SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST THAN WAS FORECAST A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO. THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN DOMINATES THE UPDATED MONTHLY FORECAST,
WITH SOME TENDENCY TOWARD THE LONG-TERM TREND MORE LIKELY LATE IN THE MONTH. THE IMPACT OF THIS ON THE MONTHLY FORECAST IS TO SHIFT AREAS OF PROBABILITIES
EAST, WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS.
More here
From Agweb:
The growing season has been anything but normal for farmers in the Corn Belt. They have been plagued with flooding, replanting, drought, not enough heat and other issues. Following the Farm Journal Midwest Crop Tour, many farmers have been praying an early frost won’t come their way.
But it could be knocking on their door much sooner than anticipated.
On AgriTalk, meteorologist Michael Clark of BAMWX.com told host Mike Adams parts of the northern and western Corn Belt could see a “strong cold front that could get sharply colder next week.”
Between September 6 and 10, northern Illinois, northern Iowa, northern Nebraska, the Dakotas, Minnesota and Wisconsin could possibly see frost.
“There’s a lot of evidence of that,” Clark told host Mike Adams. “We’ve been talking about that since [Aug. 2] in our data analysis.”
Clark said part of the reason for the cold front is because of Hurricane Harvey. He said normally a cold front follows a hurricane, and three things are lining up for areas to see a frost in early September.
- A western U.S. ridge is forming. The heat in the Pacific Northwest causes the ridge to expand, which will dislodge colder air into the Plains.
- A high pressure system near Greenland.
- There’s a typhoon forming in the western Pacific Ocean which could add more of a risk of cold in September.
With these factors aligning, Clark said on the morning of Sept. 7, lows could fall between 34 and 39 degrees—between 15 and 18 degrees colder than normal—that would be a “legitimate threat” of an exceedingly early frost.
More, here
Early frost in the Corn Belt next week… guess Al Gore must be planning a visit to lecture on MMGW….
In Australia, the skiing season is going to be quite exceptional – back to the future.
“Australia enters into snowiest week of the year after hottest winter on record”
http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/australia-enters-into-snowiest-week-of-the-year-after-hottest-winter-on-record/news-story/b50491ea3ea494eaec3410d963c4d6f9
Forget about this “hottest” nonsense – they are changing the measurements to suit their political agenda. The snow, they cannot deny.
“Blizzards, avalanches, snow on the hills? Welcome to springtime in Victoria ”
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/blizzards-avalanches-snow-on-the-hills-welcome-to-springtime-in-victoria-20170903-gya1ng.html
‘Mr Watkins said Australia had experienced a late start to the snow season due to cold fronts being blocked by high pressure systems. He said the snow season didn’t kick into full gear until early August.’
The intensification of the high pressure belt is a global warming meme, but now its collapsed I’m calling it a regional cooling signal.
The traditional August winds have turned up in September and they have the audacity to call them Spring winds.
I posted in 2015:
“All of our 2002 statements have now proved correct except one. Our sole remaining prediction from 2002 is for global cooling to commence by 2020-2030. We now think global cooling will be apparent by 2020 or sooner, possibly as early as 2017 after the current El Nino runs its course.”
I really hope to be wrong abut this…
Full post at:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/12/24/1800s-poverty-diseases-malnutrition-surge-in-green-britain/comment-page-1/#comment-2106109
I emailed Joe d’Aleo of WeatherBell and asked his opinion on this article.
He replied: “Chilly air mass for September but no damaging frost or freeze. 40s mainly.”
Gentlemen: Start your combines!
Corn pickin’ time be acomin’! A lot of corn in our immediate area(western PA north of Pittsburgh) got planted a bit late due to rain, looking pretty good in spite of that. We are looking at overnight lows in mid to low 40s already.
The report mentions a high pressure system near Greenland. This pushes cooler air south over parts of the US and Britain/Europe. I read an article that stated these ‘Greenland High’ conditions as they are known in Britain have become more common since 2007, the greatest cluster of them in the last 150 years or so. Of course they blame it on global warming and Arctic melt.
My understanding is that one of the characteristics of the Little Ice Age other than the dearth of sun spots was the persistence of the Greenland High and accompanying unsettled weather. God forbid that such a period may be looming upon the Northern Hemisphere again.
There was a very light frost here last night just west of Edmonton. Roof tops were just a little white this morning.
The unsubstantiated belief in the CAGW hypothesis will eventually be a VERY costly mistake to farmers around the world.
In particular, over the past 30 years, coffee growers have started expanding cultivation of coffee beans at higher and higher elevations (the highest elevations produce the highest quality coffee beans) however, this is just a temporary phenomenon.
Looking at past global temp data, global temp fluctuations are sinusoidal and highly correlated to 30-yr PDO/AMO warm/cool cycles. When both the PDO and AMO are in their respective 30-year cool cycles from 2019, I anticipate coffee growers will eventually lose $billions from frost lost on all the high-elevation coffee cultivation areas added over the past 30 years.
Coffee growers should actually be expanding their coffee production to lower elevations as it takes about 4 years for newly planted coffee plants to produce high quality coffee beans.
Eventually, the high-elevation frost line will likely revert to where it was in the late 1970’s. Moreover, if solar cooling adds to global cooling as many astrophysicists predict, coffee cultivation at higher elevations could be further wiped out and the safe frost line will be further lowered.
This is just another reason why CAGW is such a dangerous and costly hypothesis.
Re: Samurai’s Comment Above
In author Helen Bromfield Geld’s (daughter of famous author Louis Bromfield) book, “The View From the Fazenda” about she and her husband establishing a farm in Brazil in the 60’s and 70’s, she talks in detail about the frosts wiping out much of the coffee production there in the late 70’s. Coffee not only doesn’t bloom and produce bean when it frosts, it dies as a plant in most cases. They survived and went to livestock farming, but many farmers didn’t make it, causing a great deal of social upheaval in the rural parts of Brazil. A cautionary tale for many of our currently prosperous corn farmers!
spring in Australia http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-06/vic-weather-strong-winds-alpine-blizzards-forecast/8778700 well over a 100 cm of snow a lot more to come
Even here on the West Coast we’re to have an early season cold front later this week. Rain line may actual be just south of the Bay Area.
actual -> actually ….