First, here’s what is going on:
Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017
…OUTER RAINBAND FROM HARVEY SWIPING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEXAS
…CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 115 MI…185 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 120 MI…195 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…110 MPH…175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…947 MB…27.97 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Hurricane Watch south of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of
the Rio Grande has been discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Sargent to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations.
Interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located
by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler
radar near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 96.0 West. Harvey is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), but its forward
speed is expected to decrease significantly during the next couple
of days. On the forecast track, Harvey will make landfall on the
middle Texas coast tonight or early Saturday. Harvey is then likely
to meander near or just inland of the middle Texas coast through the
Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible, and Harvey is forecast to
become a major hurricane before it reaches the middle Texas coast.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km). A buoy located about 40 miles east of South Padre
Island recently reported sustained winds of 42 mph (68 km/h) and a
gust to 54 mph (86 km/h).
The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force plane
is 947 mb (27.97 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 15 to 25 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 35 inches over
the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During
the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 5 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas
Hill Country over through southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall
of this magnitude will cause catastrophic and life-threatening
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…
N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent…6 to 12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach…5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore…5 to 7 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island…2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield…2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City…1 to 3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.
WIND: All last-minute preparations should be rushed to completion
since tropical storm conditions are likely just beginning in
portions of the hurricane and tropical storm warning areas.
Hurricane conditions are likely to begin within the hurricane
warning area later today or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
likely to persist along portions of the coast through at least
SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible later today through
Saturday near the middle and upper Texas coast.
Harvey is expected to strengthen, according to NHC, and that may end the “major hurricane drought” we have been experiencing in the USA, now 4324 days since Hurricane Wilma made landfall in Florida on October 24th, 2005.
Some strengthening is possible, and Harvey is forecast to become a major hurricane before it reaches the middle Texas coast.
Some predictable headlines that you’ll likely see:
- Harvey’s rainfall was made worse due to climate change/global warming
- Harvey’s flooding was made worse due to climate change/global warming
- Harvey’s storm surge was made worse due to climate change/global warming
- Harvey’s maximum sustained winds were made worse due to climate change/global warming
- Harvey spawned more tornadoes due to climate change/global warming
- More storms like Harvey are in our future due to climate change/global warming
Some current alarmist headlines:
- Here’s Why Hurricane Harvey Is So Scary and Unprecedented
- Zombie storm comes back from the (mostly) dead to threaten Gulf Coast with biblical flooding
- Surprise: Hurricane Harvey Blamed On ‘Climate Change’
- Harvey’s intensity and rainfall potential tied to global warming
And there are sure to be more….
Some perspective for those who forget history:
The IPCC SREX report ( IPCC Special Report on Extremes PDF)
From Chapter 4 of the SREX:
- “There is medium evidence and high agreement that long-term trends in normalized losses have not been attributed to natural or anthropogenic climate change”
- “The statement about the absence of trends in impacts attributable to natural or anthropogenic climate change holds for tropical and extratropical storms and tornados”
- “The absence of an attributable climate change signal in losses also holds for flood losses”
There’s simply no connection between droughts, hurricanes, thunderstorms, flash floods, tornadoes and “climate change”.