Monster Solar Minimum Approaching?

Monster minimum or short solar cycle?

Guest essay by David Archibald

This recent post was on the fact that the Sun’s EUV emissions had fallen to solar minimum-like levels well ahead of solar minimum. The implication was that the Solar Cycle 24/25 minimum was either going to be very deep and prolonged, or that Solar Cycle 24 would be very short, which in turn would be strange for a weak cycle.

The indicator of the EUV flux is the Lyman alpha index. To recap, this chart shows the index over the last three cycles, starting from solar minimum:

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Figure 1: Lyman alpha index Solar Cycles 22,23,24

 

Figure 1 shows that Solar Cycle 24 has reached solar minimum-like levels three years ahead of minimum, if Solar Cycle was going to be 12 years long. What happens at solar minimum is that the proportion of EUV as part of Total Solar Irradiance falls. For the 23/24 minimum, the extent of the fall was a surprise, with the density of the thermosphere shrinking 30%. The following figure plots up the ratio of the F10.7 flux, less its activity floor at 64, and the Lyman alpha index, less a presumed average floor of activity of 3.5:

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Figure 2: F10.7 Flux/Lyman alpha ratio 1980 – 2017

The peak associated with the 23/24 minimum that surprised atmospheric researchers is quite evident. Also evident is a smaller peak associated with the 22/23 minimum. Nothing much seemed to happen prior to that. How that plots up with the F10.7 flux, and thus the solar cycles, is shown in the following figure:

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Figure 3: F10.7 Flux/Lyman alpha ratio 1980 – 2017

As Figure 1 showed, the departure of the Lyman alpha index to minimum-like levels seemed early. But just how early is it if everything else is normal? That is shown in the following graphic:

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Figure 4: F10.7 Flux/Lyman alpha ratio aligned on solar maximum

Figure 4 aligns the F10.7 Flux./Lyman alpha ratio on solar maximum for solar cycles 21 to 24 to two years beyond solar minimum, with the maxima being:

  • Solar Cycle 21 December 1979
  • Solar Cycle 22 November 1989
  • Solar Cycle 23 November 2001
  • Solar Cycle 24 April 2014

Based on the normal cycle tail from solar maximum, Solar Cycle 24 might have another three and a half years to go. So what is going to be: a monstrous minimum with a shrunken thermosphere and all the climatic effects associated with that, or a strangely short cycle?

We know when a solar cycle is over when the heliospheric current sheet flattens. The current state of the heliospheric current sheet is shown in the following figure:

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Figure 5: Heliospheric Current Sheet Tilt Angle 1976 – 2017

The heliospheric current sheet tilt angle is 10° off the apparent floor of 3° but, based on the prior solar cycles, could still take a few years to get there. If Solar Cycle 24 does turn out to be short, then there is one person who predicted that: Ed Fix. Ed Fix, a retired B52 pilot in Ohio, sent me his planet-based solar model in 2009. He was inspired to created the model because the oscillation of the solar cycle reminded him of the ideal spring in mechanics. This is how the model plots up (red) and the historic sunspot record in green:

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Figure 6: Ed Fix’s solar activity model

The model has the Solar Cycle 24/25 minimum in 2017. Solar Cycle 25 is predicted to be weak and short also. If events of the next year or so prove Ed Fix’s model to be correct, then it will be as significant as the results of any of the expeditions to observe solar phenomena over the last three centuries, but we get to watch in real time.


David Archibald is the author of American Gripen: The Solution to the F-35 Nightmare

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Gabro

Meton was right. Herschel was right.
Only today’s educated idiots would imagine that CO2 and not the sun, with its activity modulated by earth’s orbital and rotational mechanics, is the control knob on climate.

I’m fairly sure earth doesn’t have a significant effect on the sun. If anything planet was to effect the sun it would be Jupiter (with it’s enormous size) or Venus (with its close proximity).

Greg

I’m guessing that the comment indended to say the received insolation was modulated ….. , not the sun’s output.

Gabro

Earth’s orbital mechanics and rotation do indeed have a great effect, such as in causing ice ages.

It’s interesting that the sunspot cycle seems to be about the same as the orbital period of Jupiter. Perhaps when Jupiter and Saturn are on the same side of the Sun, tidal forces acting on the fusion core are at a maximum and when they align on opposite sides it’s at minimum. Not exactly sure which would generate more Sunspots, but my guess is that when the core is tidally stretched it would lead to more sunspot activity owing to non uniform fusion reaction rates, while with tidal effects minimized, the reaction rate is more uniform throughout the core.
This effect would also be modulated by the variability in the orbits, both of which are quite elliptical. For example, the largest tidal effect would be when Jupiter and Saturn align on the same side and both are at perihelion and the smallest when both are at aphelion and on opposite sides. The question becomes how long before an effect acting on the fusion core finds its way to the surface? Would the space between the fusion core and the photosphere be alternating layers of symmetric and anti-symmetric plasma propagating from the core to the surface?

You are on the right track. William Arnold also saw the link with Jupiter, Uranus and Saturn. The smaller planets also weigh in …

tony mcleod

comment image
Occam’s razor

Tom in Florida

co2isnotevil July 11, 2017 at 2:45 pm
” The question becomes how long before an effect acting on the fusion core finds its way to the surface?”
I believe that Leif has stated that to be a couple of hundred thousand years.

TA

All the planets have some effect on the Sun. Some more, some less.

Arnold Roquerre

CO2 Cools
Given that increases in CO2 lags global warming, and high CO2 concentrations precedes ice ages. Is it that once CO2 passes a certain level, the cooling attributed to CO2 drives the lowering of global temperatures? And, because CO2 hangs around a long time, it takes longer than the warm up for levels to drop enough for warming to begin the cycle again.

The ice age records support this. Warming starts when CO2 levels are low, and cooling begins when CO2 levels are high. The opposite of what the GHG theory predicts.

george e. smith

If I remember my 4-H club Atomic Spectra Physics, the Lyman alpha line is the lowest energy in the Lyman Series of the Bohr atom model, so the Lyman series are all in the UV.
The discovery of the simple (mathematical) series of frequencies of the hydrogen atomic spectrum lines seen in the solar spectrum, is one of the neatest discoveries of modern Physics.
That’s just my humble opinion of course so don’t go quoting me in your PhD thesis or you will be rejected by the bunch of judges or whatever goes for a selection process in your club.
G
PS And I could be all wrong about the above.

Tom Halla

Hard to tell what this will do to climate. It seems reasonable that solar variation would affect climate, but the actual instrumental measurements do not seem to have much correlation, at least over the last few solar cycles.

Gabro

Climatic phenomena correlate strongly with solar cycles and with their longer-term supercycles. And of course with Milankovitch cycles, ie the effect of earth’s movements on insolation.

Curious George

Link, please.

Gabro
Gabro

My initial reply contained too many links, so is in moderation. Maybe these to the East Asian monsoon will be few enough to pass prompt muster:
Robust Response of the East Asian Monsoon Rainband to Solar Variability
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00482.1
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/256146174_Solar_Cycle_Signature_in_Decadal_Variability_of_Monsoon_Precipitation_in_China
It’s ludicrous to imagine that the solar cycle and solar activity in general have no effect on terrestrial weather and climate.

Gabro

SST and air pressure:
Relationships between solar activity and variations in SST and atmospheric circulation in the stratosphere and troposphere
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S104061821501143X
The influence of solar activity on action centres of atmospheric
circulation in North Atlantic
http://www.ann-geophys.net/33/207/2015/angeo-33-207-2015.pdf

observa

“Link please”
Is this a trick question? Umm..night and day.

Curious George

Gabro, thank you for the links provided. I looked only at two articles; sorry, the don’t look good. The NCAR news release finds “that, as the Sun’s output reaches a peak, the small amount of extra sunshine over several years causes a slight increase in local atmospheric heating.” They find it in models. The Hiremath article analyzes Indian monsoon rainfall data, totally unconvincingly to me. There is a strong evidence for so-called 11 year solar cycle. If there is a correlation with a climatic phenomenon, I would expect to find the same cycle in that phenomenon. Show me. I see plenty of words and graphs, but nothing relevant.

Gabro

CG,
Just what evidence would you find convincing? I’m guessing none, since it’s clear you’re a True Believer for whom scientific evidence doesn’t matter, only blind faith in your cult.
Solar activity, cosmic rays, and Earth’s temperature: A millennium-scale comparison
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2004JA010946/pdf

Curious George

An evidence of a 11- or 21-year periodicity in a climate phenomenon would be convincing.

Gabro

CG,
Climate requires a minimum of 30 years, so what would be required with respect to the solar cycle is evidence of a climatic effect from the long-term variations in the ~11-year solar cycles.
And there is ample evidence of this, for the Gleissberg and other cycles.
THE SOLAR WOLF-GLEISSBERG CYCLE AND ITS INFLUENCE ON THE EARTH
Shahinaz M. Yousef
http://www.virtualacademia.com/pdf/cli267_293.pdf
Dr. Easterbrook, who comments here often, could enlighten you as the even longer-term, periodic solar cycle fluctuations.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/17/easterbrook-on-the-potential-demise-of-sunspots/

afonzarelli

http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/TSI-est-of-climate-sensitivity2.gif
Curious, this is from one of dr roy’s posts: detrended, smoothed three years to round out enso, with early 90s pinatubo cooling removed. Graphs like this one should be all over the web. (one wonders why they are not)…

Graphs like this one should be all over the web. (one wonders why they are not)…
Because it is well-known that the solar cycle variation of the temperature is of the order of 0.1K. Just like it is not necessary to remind people all the time that the Earth is round.

afonzarelli

No, it is not well known. People are constantly saying that the 11 year cycle is not represented in the temperature data. If more (and better) graphs than this one were available, then the misinformation would be stopped in its tracks. As it is, folks keep going over the same old ground. i feel very fortunate to have stumbled across this one. One can eyeball graphs like the one weber has and see it, but it’s much better to have something definitive like this to put it all to rest. Besides, i’d like to see other graphs like this done. Particularly removing el ninos altogether, just to see what the numbers come to. In this graph of spencers, two of the minimums during the period in question have large el ninos. It would be nice to see how the numbers shake out without them. We can NEVER have enough data…

People are constantly saying that the 11 year cycle is not represented in the temperature data
People who don’t know what they are talking about [and there are so many of those] may say so constantly, but every atmospheric scientist worth her salt knows this. I [e.g.] have preached that for decades. It is trivially true.

Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy

Cycles in Rainfall
Rainfall data is critical for arriving at a reasonable conclusion. Different groups use different averages to present relative variations that affect the conclusions drawn from such series.
Though India receives around 78% of the annual rainfall during the southwest monsoon season [June to September], they are highly variable over different parts of the country. (late) Dr. B. Parthasarathy [a close friend of mine] compiled rainfall data sets [monthly, seasonal and annual] for 32 sub-divisions [India was divided into 32 met sub-divisions]. He sent me a copy of the published booklet containing this data in 1995. “Using this data series” I analyzed for possible cyclic nature for all-India southwest monsoon and Andhra Pradesh [comprising three met-subdivisions] which receives rainfall not only in southwest monsoon but also during northeast monsoon [October to December] and cyclonic activity in Bay of Bengal. I presented these results in my book “Andhra Pradesh Agriculture: Scenario of the last four decades” [2000].
All-India Southwest Monsoon Rainfall presented a clear cut 60-year cycle – by simply plotting 10-year averages. Here, one must keep in mind that different groups used different data series to represent all-India Southwest Monsoon rainfall series and thus averages differ. Also, as the data presents a cyclic pattern, any truncated data may present biased average based on which part (s) of the cycle the data represents.
I tried to correlate this cycle to global average temperature anomaly. Later somebody published the 60-year cycle superposed on trend [1880 to 2010] – this I presented in my 2008 book “Climate Change: Myths & Realities”.
The annual rainfall data series of Mahalapye in Botswana presented 60-year cycle with sub-multiple of 30-, 20- & 10- years [published in 1981]. Durban annual rainfall in South Africa presented 66-year cycle with sub-multiple of 22 years [published in 1984]. Eretria [in Ethiopia – now separate country] presented 22 year cycle in annual rainfall [1993 book].
In the case of Andhra Pradesh, southwest monsoon rainfall data series presented a 56-year cycle. Though northeast monsoon data series also presented 56-year cycle, but in opposite phase. The cyclonic activity in Bay of Bengal followed the northeast monsoon pattern. Catuane in Mozambique presented 54 year cycle with sub-multiple of 18 years [published in 1984].
I collected dates of onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala Coast [starting point of monsoon] and studied and this data presented 52 year cycle [published in 1977]. Fortaleza precipitation in Brazil presented 52 year cycle with sub-multiples of 26, 13 & 6.5 years [published in 1984].
All these suggest that the cycles show a systematic trend with latitude. General circulation patterns change them or overlapping of two cycle zones also present different pattern.
Astrological significance
See few inferences from my paper “Rainfall prediction for agriculture: past, present and future” – Proc. International Conference “Agricultural Heritage of Asia”, Asian Agri-History Foundation, 2004, pp:147-154:
The science of Astrology started with the understanding seasons and weather in relation to movements of extra-terrestrial bodies, known as planets. All, or most, cultures have developed a form of astrology such as Indian Astrology, Western Astrology, Chinese Astrology, Mexican Astrology, Celtic Astrology, etc. The Western Astrology is solar-based, the Chinese Astrology is lunar based, and the Indian Astrology is luni-solar based.
A lot of the ancient lore lost it s glory with industrialization, as the family tradition in astrology lost its shine. When we look into these studies in terms of weather prognostication, two important aspects emerge: the onset of rains and the total seasonal rains. The former is linked to the wind direction before the onset of rains and the later is linked to the phases of the Moon and Nakshatras (constellations) and this is integrated with the movement of other planets in terms of cycles. The recurring changes in the position of the Sun during the day – events on the Sun – the periodic waxing and waning of the Moon, the regular appearance and disappearance of the planets, all unmistakably projected a cycle of events that were gradually woven into the socio-religious fabric.
I observed a clear relationship between the onset of the monsoon over the Kerala Coast and the zonal component of wind at 50 mb level over Singapore, an equatorial station in the month of May. If the winds are westerly then the monsoon is early; if the winds are easterly, the monsoon is late.
The Chinese Astrology has a 60-year cycle, based on a combination of five elements and twelve animal signs. The current 60-year cycle began in 1984/85. In Indian Astrology [current starting year is 1987/88], the calendar system claimed to have been revealed is the same as or similar to what is called the 60-year cycle – the cycle of the Sun (6-years) and the Moon (10 years), i.e., 6 of 10 years, or the cycle of Jupiter – a cycle of five 12 years, similar to the Chinese 60-year cycle. The Indus Valley Civilization, which was before the Vedic period , used the 60-year cycle. The Aztecs noted that 5 Venus years equal to 8 Sun years. These cycles only repeated after 65 Sun and 104 Venus years, i.e., once in 520 years. The number 104 is the longest period in Mexican time keeping, and was called one “old age”. The Mexican Century was 52 years. Around this zone even the rainfall presents a cycle of this nature – Fortaleza in Brazil.
Southern Oscillation [ENSO]
1880-2006 – 126 years data of southwest monsoon rainfall: number of years
D BN N AN S Total
El Nino 7 5 5 0 1 18
Normal 14 13 37 14 6 84
La Nina 0 0 7 7 10 24
Total 21 18 49 21 17 126
D = deficit, BN = below normal, N = normal, AN = above normal and E = excess
However global solar radiation presents sunspot cycle and its multiples.
Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy

afonzarelli

Sure, that goes without saying, but i’d think that would be true for any number of things that the general public wouldn’t readily know. We’ve got graphs for just about EVERYTHING. Why not that?

afonzarelli

(my comment is in response to you, dr svalgaard… dr reddy’s comment wasn’t there when i posted my comment. his must have been held up in moderation)

You can avoid this, by always [as I, most of the time anyway] citing first the words you are objecting to.

george e. smith

So Curious George would find an 11 or 21 year cycle convincing.
So I venture he would be ecstatic to find agreement to say eight significant digits, between observed measurement, and theoretical derivation.
But one such theoretical derivation of the value of the fine structure constant (alpha) , was pure poppycock; and simply mucking around with numbers; with NO connection to the physical universe whatsoever. Yet it agreed with the best experimental value to about 30% of the standard deviation of that experimental value.
So be very careful what you believe just because it seems to fit.
G

afonzarelli

Yes, george, true, but at least it is there in the data (complete with the one year lag). Most folks don’t even get that far…

george e. smith

A very simple Black Body calculation suggests that the observed (measured) solar cycle variation in TSI could account for about 70 mK change in earth Temperature. My 4-H education suggests that’s the most it could cause.
So Dr. Leif is being generous when he says that anybody knows it’s about 0.1 deg. And I have to agree that anybody with a smattering of knowledge about thermal things would start with a table cloth BB calculation.
Leif has mentioned the magnitude many times here at WUWT, so no excuses for readers here.
And I would swear on a stack of Farmer’s Almanacs that Leif has even given the 70 mK number right here at WUWT himself, because I know that I first calculated it when I saw his post on it. I don’t check to corroborate; just to get a better understanding of why.
G

george e. smith
I think you have a somewhat simplistic idea on what is happening here on earth
hints
1) we are protected here by the sun’s most harmful radiation/ particles, by our atmosphere. Hence my advice: don’t go to Mars…before you have created an atmosphere.
2) In its turn, the ozone, peroxides and N-oxides formed by these particles from the oxygen, nitrogen and water vapor, filter out certain UV radiation reaching the oceans…
3) If the solar magnetic field strengths varies, the amount of energy going into the oceans varies.
TSI is a red herring
You have to measure via / via to see what is really happening.

3) If the solar magnetic field strengths varies, the amount of energy going into the oceans varies.
TSI is a red herring

The sun’s magnetic field does not do anything as such, but its variations cause variations of TSI and hence of the amount of energy reaching the Earth to go into the oceans.

Thanks for your reaction, but please, do tell me where and how ON and IN earth TSI is measured, exactly?
[remember I am from the school that don’t trust the sat’s]

TSI is measured very accurately by several spacecraft orbiting within a million miles from the Earth’s surface. We can easily correct for the varying distances to get what actually hits the Earth.

Good heavens. You honestly believe that what happens a million miles on top of us is a fair representation of what happens with T right on top of my own head???
Get real.

You honestly believe that what happens a million miles on top of us is a fair representation of what happens with T right on top of my own head
Indeed yes, as there is nothing to stop the energy flow to the top of the atmosphere [not your head which may need some examination…]. In fact, I believe that what happens 93 million miles away is a fair representation of the energy hitting the Earth.

I rather trust my own head, thx.

There is such a thing as ‘learning’…

I have studied and learned the daily data of 54 weather stations. 27 for each hs. For the past 40 years.
Min. Max. Mean.
How many figures are that?
Not sure now. Is it me or is it you with a learning problem?

But you don’t seem to have learned much. There is more in this world that 54 weather stations. For example, there is that big globe in the sky that gives us the heat that makes life possible. And which energy output we carefully measure and study.

It is the distribution of particles released that matters. Especially the fraction with a lot of energy which seem to get more when the solar polar fieldstrength drops. Total energy stays the same?
In my hay days they simply called TSI the solar constant.
Are you saying it is not constant anymore?
Anyway. What effect would you predict from the moving north pole?
See previous comment.

It is the distribution of particles released that matters
Not at all.
Are you saying it is not constant anymore?
So you have not even learned that it actually varies a tiny bit.
What effect would you predict from the moving north pole?
None.

Gabro

Not just correlation of course, but many causation mechanisms are known as well.

Auto

Gabro,
Thanks.
Amid all the uncertainty, we will soon be told that, actually, the science is settled.
Probably by a politician with a knife to grind.
And it is not pellucid whether we will warm or cool – let alone how much.
Myself, I don’t like hot weather – the ‘hot’ (27C/81F, but humid, and I have to commute . . . . .) spell in Southern England broke today; 20C/68F, and rain, thank goodness! – but gentle overall warming is to be preferred.
Many fewer deaths from (reduced) cold versus a very few more from the (increased) heat.
Will we get it?
‘Ah, there’s the rub!’
Auto

Gabro

I don’t like either hot, as now, or cold, as past winter, but that’s what I get for living in a continental climate zone, with a temperature range from -35 to 118 degrees F. But so far this summer we haven’t yet hit 100 F. Close, though.
Which is why most winters I spend in South America.

Gabro

ENSO is actually measured based upon relative air pressure, compared between Darwin, Australia and Tahiti. What causes the trade winds to weaken or even reverse at the onset of an El Nino is often described as “mysterious”.
My hypothesis is that the sun is responsible not only for the build up of warm water in the tropical WestPac, but also for the strength and weakness of the trades. My testable hypothesis would be a correlation between the time integral of the solar cycle and ENS oscillations. Also specifically UV flux and its effect on ozone. A volume of air is warmed by having more O3 in it, hence affecting air pressure, thence wind speed.

the ‘hot’ (27C/81F, but humid, and I have to commute . . . . .)
==============
27C/81F is lethal without technology.
The human body generates about 150 watts internally to maintain body heat. At temperatures around 27.5C/82F and below, the naked human body begins to radiate more than 150 watts, leading to death by exposure.

Jeanparisot

That’s with or without the thumbs on the scales?

Tom Halla

Jeanparisot, I am judging temperature trends since 1979 by UAH, which seems to vary with El Ninos, but generally flat since 1998. That covers parts of two cycles, and temperature has not been declining with the solar cycles.

Merchant

So, it should be cold now, and for quite some time.

tony mcleod

Not only that, it should have been cooling since 2014. Lo and behold – the opposite has happened according to every soruce I am able to access.
This is zombie junk form a junk peddler.
From a link in the post:
“These seemed to confirm his belief: when the sun has spots, the weather tends to be wetter and rainier.”
This is what David appears base all his climate ideas on. It’s the ‘belief’ of someone called Meton who aparently live in ancient Greece. WTF!
The whole thrust of this post and every other that I have read from this bloke is based on a massive “if”.
“If events of the next year or so prove Ed Fix’s model to be correct, then it will be as significant as the results of any of the expeditions to observe solar phenomena over the last three centuries”.
Or some variation of: if this happens then I’ll be proven right afterall.
If my autie was a man she’d be my uncle.
I guess Archibald actually belives this stuff – he has been peddling it for years and he is not alone. It’s time a few more of the sensible viewers on this site stopped letting him get away with it and not just leaving up to Leif as captain zombie-slayer.

afonzarelli

Tony, svalgaard doesn’t even believe that the oceans are warming. OHC increasing? Nah. Sea level rise of 1.1mm/year due to thermal expansion? Nope. How can you have any faith in a guy like that?

James Allison

tony – try using both spell and grammar check ‘if’ you ‘beileve’ it ‘could’ help with your credibility, or some variation of it.

tony mcleod

I haven’t seen him nailing those positions to the mast (not saying he hasn’t), but you have to admit he is tireless in slaying what I agree with him is a TSI zombie.

afonzarelli

Tony, problem is that if he did believe that the ocean is warming, then he would also believe in feedbacks relating to a warming ocean. As he does not, his analysis then is flawed…

tony mcleod

afonzarelli, his analysis may have flaws but I thinks his flaying of these solarists is entirely justified. The variations in TSI are so minute, in the order of 0.001%, they are not going to show up in years or even decades. Massive gas pulses that rapidly alter atmospheric thermal properties on the other hand do – but that conflicts with the bias.

“Or some variation of: if this happens then I’ll be proven right afterall.”
Wherein Tony McPlod following years in the trackless wilderness of total unfalsifiability discovers what a testable hypothesis is. Bravo! Congratulations Tony.

MarkW

Once again, McClod tries to pretend that the recent El Nino never happened so that he can attribute all of it’s warming to CO2.
Regardless, McClod also wants to pretend that there is no such thing as thermal mass.
As always, the warmists ignore physics.

tony mcleod

So cephus0 you’re in the hokes camp? What: socialists? Chinese? Rich Gore types? Sneaky scientists?
Who’s the problem? Or is it the massive 0.001% delta TSI that’s causing the ice to halve in volume in 30 years?comment image

MarkW

Measured from the highest point in the last couple hundred years, arctic sea ice levels have dropped.
Ho hum.
Of course the loss of arctic sea ice is a massive negative feedback that results in lots of extra heat being lost to space. But who cares, we’ve got people to scare and money to rip off.

Javier

Tony,

The variations in TSI are so minute, in the order of 0.001%, they are not going to show up in years or even decades.

That’s a “non-sequitur.” You are assuming climatic changes due to solar variability must be due to variations in TSI. Science is exploring other possibilities that you have chosen to ignore, like changes in stratospheric pressure, temperatures, and/or ozone content and distribution.
Building your own TSI strawmen to shoot down is also a fallacy. Your approach to solar variability effect on climate is tainted with bias.

Javier

Tony,

Or is it the massive 0.001% delta TSI that’s causing the ice to halve in volume in 30 years?

That graph is not real ice, but modelled ice. Real Arctic sea ice is doing this:comment image
As this article explains:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/10/07/evidence-that-multidecadal-arctic-sea-ice-has-turned-the-corner/
The past behavior of Arctic sea ice has been explained in several articles and it is linked to the AMO.

Javier
100%

Michael darby

Excellent cherry you picked there Javier. Note in a longer term plot of September Arctic sea ice how 2007 is a low point relative to years before and after.. Try starting in 2006 or 2005 and see how your trend line changes!!!
..comment image

Javier

Michael,

Excellent cherry you picked there Javier.

Still more September Arctic sea ice than 10 years ago. Do you have an explanation for that? Because I have three scientific articles that say that it is due to AMO. And all three predict this Arctic non-melting is going to continue for quite a few more years.
Arctic alarmism is taking a serious beating.

Michael darby

Your graphic is misleading.

If you go here: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

1) Then add in 2007, you’ll note that currently we are at exactly the same level today as in 2007.
2) You have to wait two more months before you can say: “Still more September Arctic sea ice than 10 years ago.”
3) How do you explain the long term trend since 1978?

Javier

Your graphic is misleading.

So you say, but it is clearly labelled and the source of the data indicated.

you’ll note that currently we are at exactly the same level today as in 2007.

Do not move the goal posts. We were told the Arctic was to become ice-free in the summer. The minimum month is September. The extent on July 12, or May 26 is not relevant if the minimum doesn’t go down.

You have to wait two more months before you can say: “Still more September Arctic sea ice than 10 years ago.

I am equally happy with 9 years until then.

How do you explain the long term trend since 1978?

Explaining is not a problem. I can think of several different explanations. Demonstrating is the problem.
It is clearly not CO2 since these cycles existed when CO2 was much lower.
It is likely not temperatures, as we have had record temperatures for like 4-5 years since 2007, although temperatures might contribute.
That leaves the atmosphere or the ocean. I am more inclined to the second one as the main factor, since the AMO has been implicated.
Meanwhile here you have a graph of polar temperatures this year to mull over:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2017.png
For over two months temperatures have been below the 1958-2002 average North of 80º. That’s correct, 1958-2002 average.

Michael darby

You are funny. First you say: “Do not move the goal posts.” Then you move the goal posts by saying: “We were told the Arctic was to become….” This is not a discussion about predictions, so leave them out. The extent on July 12, or May 26 is relevant if it sets a record low, being lower than any September low. Now, you know 9 years or 10 years doesn’t make a “trend”
….
Now you are claiming the AMO as the cause of the variation in your graph? Sorry, you can’t take a 9 or 10 year slice of data to illustrate a 60-80 year cycle. A 9 or 10 year graphic doesn’t “demonstrate” anything.
….
Lastly you posted a graphic of “temperatures”…. Did you look closely at what you posted? It says “ECMWF operational model” …That’s right, you’re posting MODEL output and claiming it’s real??????

Javier

The extent on July 12, or May 26 is relevant if it sets a record low, being lower than any September low.

Obviously it doesn’t. Every year September has the lowest extent.

Now, you know 9 years or 10 years doesn’t make a “trend”

Of course it does. It is a 9-year trend.

Now you are claiming the AMO as the cause of the variation in your graph?

I am not. Do you have a problem finding and reading bibliography in the link above? I’ll make it easier for you:
Miles et al., 2014
http://folk.uib.no/ngftf/CV/PDF_Furevik/miles_et_al_grl_2014.pdf
Wyatt & Curry, 2014
http://cdn.cnsnews.com/documents/Curry,%20Wyatt%20paper.pdf
Artun et al., 2017
https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15875
They are the ones claiming it.

Did you look closely at what you posted? It says “ECMWF operational model”

Do you have an idea of what ECMWF ERA is? That’s reanalysis which means real temperature data from surface stations and satellites is being assimilated every few hours. That is what produces weather forecasts every few hours and lives depend on them. An international effort from 34 countries. Much better than those silly adjusted databases that get changes every month.
That the Arctic is colder than in previous years during the melt season is a fact. Go look it up.

Michael darby

A model is a model is a model is a model.

Sortta like this? comment image

I hope you understand what 2 standard deviations mean.
..
Oh, and 9 years out of 60 is not a “trend”

Michael darby

PS : “That is what produces weather forecasts”
..
BINGO, models produce forecasts!!

Javier

The Arctic is still not melting after 9 years, Michael. We were told less ice means less albedo, more irradiation, higher temperatures and less ice. We were told the Arctic was in a death spiral. We just went through the warmest years ever registered. The warmest years in centuries. The years with highest CO2 levels in hundreds of thousands. The Arctic didn’t melt further.
Do you have an explanation for that, Michael? Some bibliography that can explain it? Why did the Arctic melt more rapidly when it was colder, with less CO2 and had more ice, than now that is warmer, with more CO2 and has less ice?

Michael darby

“The Arctic is still not melting after 9 years, Michael”……… you must be immune to data. I posted NSIDC graphic that shows a 40% decline over the course of 38 years. The long term trend says something completely different than your 9 year trend line. You do understand that long term trends are more significant that short term ones, right?

Javier

The long term trend says something completely different than your 9 year trend line.

Trends change. Pauses and cooling periods happen. There was a very clear trend change in 1976 well recognized in several publications. If you have a linear understanding of climate and extrapolation is your only tool you won’t understand what is going on. Another change in trend has taken place but you are too blind to see it. Read those papers I linked. Their authors do recognize the recent change in trend.
You might need another 20 years to see the change in trend. Others can see it already and are reporting it in scientific publications. By the time you accept a change in trend has taken place a new one might be underway.

Ed Fix’s model
========
it makes a whole lot more sense to publish the model now rather than later. publishing a prediction after the fact cannot be trusted as proof of anything.
as to the prediction of the current cycle ending this year, that would certainly qualify as an “unexpected” result, which is one of the criteria for acceptance of a new theory.
Now it could be said that publishing unproven predictions is a waste of time and money, which argues strongly that the billions of dollars spent on climate models is wasted.
At least in the case of Ed Fix’s model, the jury is still out. In the case of climate models, they predicted accelerated warming. What actually happened is that the rate of warming accelerated in the opposite direction to what was predicted and we got “The Pause”.
Having failed to predict climate, climate science has responded by adjusting the historical climate records to better match the models. Even RSS appears to have gotten into the act, adjusting the satellite data to match a model.

True

Gabro

tony mcleod July 12, 2017 at 7:20 am
Except Arctic sea ice won’t be gone in September. Its extent then will depend upon whether there are cyclones in August, as in other lower than usual ice years. Minimal sea ice this year should be between the 2012 low and 2009 high of the past decade, ie 2007-16.
Do you promise never to comment here again when you’re shown ludicrously wrong, yet again, as always?
See you in September, then buh-bye!

Michael darby

“There was a very clear trend change in 1976 well recognized in several publications.” There was? You mean they spliced the satellite data with some other kind of data? Wasn’t that what Marcott did?

“You might need another 20 years to see the change in trend.” But but but but…your graphic was 9-years?????

Gabro

Michael,
The pre-1979 satellite data aren’t spliced. They are satellite observations, which started in the 1960s, before there was a dedicated sea ice satellite. They show that 1979 was the highest sea ice year since the 1960s and probably for the past century.

Michael darby

Gabro, the SMMR was not flown until 1978, so yes, anything prior to that date would be a “splice.”

Michael darby

For example Gabro: comment image

With the following posted with the graphic: “Mean sea ice anomalies, 1953-2012: Sea ice extent departures from monthly means for the Northern Hemisphere. For January 1953 through December 1979, data have been obtained from the UK Hadley Centre and are based on operational ice charts and other sources. For January 1979 through December 2012, data are derived from passive microwave (SMMR / SSM/I).
….
SPLICE !!!!!

Michael darby

Here ya go Gabro, read this: http://nsidc.org/data/g10010

Gabro

It is satellite observations “spliced” onto satellite observations, which is not remotely like “splicing” tricky tree ring “data” onto cooked book thermometer “data”.

Michael darby

Gabro incorrectly says: “It is satellite observations ‘spliced’ onto satellite observations”

Check out “Table 1” for data sources: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1931-0846.2016.12195.x/full

tony mcleod

Javier, typing: “Real Arctic sea ice is doing this” and then posting a cherry-picked time period that reveals your bias is either disingenuous or incredibly gullible.
Are you really trying to argue that the Arctic sea-ice is not in steep and rapid decline?comment image?w=1200
Extent and area are useful metrics but volume, although more difficult to calculate, is far more revealing.
As far as multi-year ice goes:comment image
There is no yoga position you can twist yourself into that is going to make those graphs appear to head north.
Is the AMO having some effect? Quite possibly, but sheesh…

tony mcleod

Point taken.

Curious George

Ah, models. Trump surrounds himself with models, but they don’t model Arctic ice.

Robert from oz

Thanks for the graph Tony , I had no idea that the arctic only had sea ice since 1985 !
We are definitely doomed , I can see 1000 feet of sea rise in a few short years at that pace .

tony mcleod

That’s point taken James.

Robert from oz

Oops my bad , since the 1980s.

Javier

Hmm, as per figure 6, the model presented anticipates SC25 slightly more active than SC24, and SC26/SC27 > SC24/SC25.
It is unclear where the monster solar minimum approaching prediction comes from. Ed Fix’s model predicts activity going up, not down.

Gabro

It appears that David refers only to the minimum for this cycle, not a grand minimum. Ed does indeed forecast increasing activity for the next three cycles.

Ted

The monster minimum would be a standard length cycle, with the low section starting now and continuing for a few years. Ed Fix’s model is an alternative, the ‘short cycle’ in the title of the post. The strength of the coming cycles is irrelevant to those choices, but would be relevant to evaluating the Fix model.
As a side note, Ed Fix’s model doesn’t show 25 and 26 to be more active than 24 has been, it predecticted SC24 to be even weaker than it actually was. The cycles aren’t predicted to be stronger than observations for 24 until SC27.

Greg

The implication was that the Solar Cycle 24/25 minimum was either going to be very deep and prolonged, or that Solar Cycle 24 would be very short

a very short cycle being the opposite on deep and long it looks like this is saying today will either hot or cold. Take your pick but keep your options open !

rbabcock

Personally I think the solar cycle has a big effect but the oceans buffer it so much, the actual impact is hard to determine.

LT

I am writing software to take the binary RSS dataset of the lower stratosphere and break it into a month vs latitude graph. And then use a deconvolution algorithm to remove the annual cycle from each latitude band. Then generate a frequency spectrum for each latitude band to see if the 11 year cycle shows up in the remaining data at any latitudes, if it does then a case could be made that solar variability has in fact been detected in the climate system. The point is, that the Stratosphere should be somewhat decoupled from the buffering of Earth’s oceans. Stay tuned…

yes
the data always follow the sun…
and the sun makes no sense unless you look at it long term, and even very long term
some of us – Javier and others know –
http://oi65.tinypic.com/2u8axl5.jpg

Greg

Interesting initiative LT. Some comments on the method.
Why deconvolution. All deconvolution methods introduce distortions, this seems like unnecessary degradation. Why not low-pass filter?
Use daily data if possible , monthly averages are improper resampling without using an anti-alias filter. This just muddies and corrupts the data. I don’t know whether RSS give daily data but UAH does. Suggest using UAH.
If this daily data is too big for your frequency analysis to run in a convenitent time. Do a low-pass filter at say 54 days and then resample at 27 day intervals ( proper anti-alias ). I suggest 27d because this is the solar equatorial rotation. You may try some other periods like 732d filter and 365 resampling.
Try doing your frequency analysis without filtering. The annual will be large but may not drown out the rest. Suck and see.
Please don’t use running means ( which is in effect what monthly averages do ). This distorts the data in horrible ways and does not correctly deal with any periodic components in the data. ( eg 27 solar cycle, 27 and 29d lunar cycles , which you should at least assume may be present.
See this article about running means and find links to a number of options for well-behaved LP filters with code provided. You should be able to adapt to whatever language you use.
https://climategrog.wordpress.com/2013/05/19/triple-running-mean-filters/
hope that helps. Keep us posted on what you find. Even if it is nothing. A rigorous nothing is a powerful result. 😉

Greg

before I get shouted down : monthly average is the same as running mean followed by a monthly resampling. Thus it is a distorting filter which is only half of the length required to properly anti-alias the data.
Climatology is hugely into monthly means which would only be valid if you can be sure that all variation below 60 days is totally random. It is pretty certain the both lunar and solar periods shorter than 30/31 days could be present making monthly averages totally bad for the job.
Here’s why you want to avoid runny means as a filter.comment image

If you look for the magnetic 21.5 year periodicity you will find it without any difficulty. It is there in both land and ocean surface temperatures.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/5Spectra.gif

21.5 is the correct solar cycle.
Hale and Nicholson understood this. Schwabe is the half cycle. Gleisberg is 86.5 years.
DeVries is 210. Beyond that… who knows??

henryp, that is the most mindless
fit i have ever witnessed.

True. I was hoping there for more than o.5 correlation.
Must overlay with solar parameter. I m sure you will see a fit then. That was my point.

LT

Greg,
The annual cycle has +/- 90 watt deviation (because of earths 1 million mile elliptical orbit) and we are looking for a difference of just a couple of watts over two decades in a 2 solar cycles, so there is a process we use in seismic processing called predictive deconvolution used for removing echoes in the subsurface. So this process uses only the first N-Samples of the autocorrelation of the signal to compute the prediction filter, and convolves the prediction filter with the time series to get the predictable portion, and then subtracts it from the original signal. This is a more robust process than simply convolving the inverse filter with the time series. But it needs the toeplitz matrix to properly partition the energy, so it is not a very common process among most industries, but in the seismic business, we truly have some of the most advanced signal processing algorithms available.

Jeff in Calgary

rbabcock, I think you are a genius. Any effect is going to be a slow gradual nudge in one direction or the other. It likely would require a prolonged solar quiet period to have any noticeable effect. But once the effect was noticeable, it would have a ton of momentum and would result in dramatic changes.

chadb

Agreed. If ocean mixing gives a 30 year filter with a 15 year lag then it really doesn’t matter if there is an 11 year cycle – what matters is the long term trend. It would be interesting to see correlation coefficients between the temperature trend vs. average sunspot number for varying time constants (correlation 1 year, 5 year, 10 year etc).

Greg

The cross-correlation function does that for ALL lags. An example for Tahiti looks like this :comment image
https://climategrog.wordpress.com/tahiti_ssn_slpmatsst_cc/

Greg

It should be noted that the correlation is very small, meaning that only a very small amount of the variation matches SSN.

Greg

PS. Since this is daily data, and the annual component of earth variables will not correlate with SSN, this graph does not suffice to say SSN is negligible. As some have suggested in the past.

Greg

Apologies, that was based on monthly data, not daily as stated above. Sloppy work not properly labelling the x axis.

LT

Greg,
Is it possible to get daily data from the satellite record? I would think it would take days of orbits to get a single global sampling.

Jeff L

It looks like that spike is driven by just the last month of data. I would like to see at least 6 more months of data before getting too excited about what might happen next

RWturner

Most predictions show solar cycle 25 to be relatively normal but cycle 26 will be extremely quiet.

where can i read
these predictions?

erastvandoren

How is this a surprise? Zharkova-model predicted this minimum. And much larger minimum from the mid-20s.

Javier

The surprise would be that she is actually correct.

Dena

The Fix model seems to be at least a good deal of the picture however what would be interesting to see is the model running back to the early 1600’s. Sun spot records go back nearly that far but I suspect the model might have difficulty dealing with events like the little ice age. If there is a mismatch at that point, there is a second factor that needs to be considered.

Ed Fix

Dena, the model I played around with a few years ago is a simple resonant spring equation excited by the changes in the sun’s chaotic orbit about the barycenter of the solar system. It was only ever meant to be a proof of concept exploration of whether some resonant process could be excited by a the sun’s orbit to produce something like the sunspot cycle. Really nothing more.
When I saw David’s post about a possibly shortened cycle, my immediate thought was, “Oh no, he’s not going to mention my model again, is he?” I was kinda hoping to just watch the sunspot cycle for a few more months. If it seems to start an uptick in the next year or so, I could pop up and say, “see, I predicted that”, and if not, just stay quiet. Oh, well.
The model is a dynamic simulation, and each step is determined only by the current state of the oscillator and an input force derived from the sun’s orbit; specifically the radial acceleration of the sun relative to the barycenter.
Clearly, whatever’s going on in the sun is much more complex than a simple damped spring, so there is no possibility that the model could mimic the sunspot cycle long term. Whatever happened during the Maunder Minimum to disrupt the sunspot cycle is absolutely not in this model, so no, it doesn’t replicate the Maunder Minimum.
Incidentally, the model can’t be “run back” to the 17th century. It’s a dynamic model (with cause and effect) and can only run forward. However, I can start it in the 16th century and run it forward, and that’s how I confirmed it does not replicate the Maunder Minimum.
To set the spring, force, damping, and mass constants for the spring equation, I started with the sunspot cycle around 1750, starting from a known maximum, and adjusted the constants to produce something like the real sunspot cycle. I use a version of the Hale cycle, treating half the familiar sunspot cycles as the “negative” half of a sinusoid. Briefly, I did that because the sunspots of alternating cycles have reversed magnetic fields, so the familiar 11 year cycle seemed to me to be a rectified (absolute value) sinusoid. I just added a sign.
I have already had two predictions validated. After I set the parameters so the model produced a sunspot cycle-like output starting from a known initial condition, I set the starting point in the year 1500 with the initial conditions all set to 0. When the simulation got to 1750, it’s phase and amplitude closely match the real thing. That, I reasoned, couldn’t happen unless I had the parameters of the forcing function essentially correct.
In mid 2008, the modeling effort had progressed to the point that I predicted that if the sunspot number stayed very low through 2008, it would not start increasing again until the beginning of 2010. In fact, it started picking up in Dec. 2009. Close enough.
The model shows something very peculiar (unprecedented in the record) going on with the transition from cycle 24 to 25. I’m waiting to see if something like that happens.
Because it’s based on such a simple oscillatory process, I have no faith in the model’s ability to predict anything long term, and would be ecstatic if it predicts anything over the next cycle or so. The odd transition it seems to predict from cycle 24 to 25 seems to be a great test.

richard verney

Thanks for that insight; the insider view.

Samuel C Cogar

Ed Fix July 11, 2017 at 6:52 pm

Because it’s based on such a simple oscillatory process, I have no faith in the model’s ability to predict anything long term,

Now Mr. Ed, best you reconsider the above, simply because it is a well-known fact that there are numerous “simple oscillatory processes” than can, do and/or will result in dramatic changes or results, ,,,,,, intended or otherwise.
The loss of a counter-weight on an automobile tire or a “balance” wheel will create a simple oscillatory process that will continue to deteriorate if not corrected. And don’t forget about Galloping Gertie, the 1940 Tacoma Narrows Bridge — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tacoma_Narrows_Bridge_(1940)
And remember, “The term vibration is precisely used to describe mechanical oscillation.
And Ed, there is another naturally occurring “simple oscillatory process” that is, IMLO, directly responsible for the bi-yearly cycling of an average 6 ppm in/of atmospheric CO2 quantities, as well as the dramatic changes that occur in opposite phases in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, ……. and that “oscillatory process” is commonly referred to as the changing of the “seasons”, …….. aka: spring and fall equinoxes, …… that occurs when the Sun’s zenith passes over the earth’s equator on September 23rd and March 21st.
Failure to see or recognize the dramatic effects of said “simple oscillatory processes” is akin to those persons who “can’t see the forest because of all the trees”.
Sam C

Ed Fix

Good morning, Sam
What I meant by that “simple oscillatory process” statement is that the model is a one-dimensional model that mimics a three-dimensional process, and it has no provision for nonlinearity, or threshold effects. Therefore, its predictive ability is bound to be weak, at best.
The spring model I used is really just a place-holder to test the premise that some oscillatory process, forced/excited by changes in the sun’s chaotic orbit about the solar system barycenter, could produce something like the sunspot cycle.

Butch2

Hate to nit pick, but…..
“He was inspired to created the model” ….Create ? ( no d ?)

Sam Hall

Hate to nit pick, but…..
Then don’t

stan stendera

+100

jai mitchell

Should start cooling any minute now. . .
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/lawrence-solomon/global-cooling_b_4413833.html
circa 2013) (three record warm years ago)

Dr Deanster

And a huge El Niño. cant really tell what you are implying, but leaving out the fact that at least two of those so called record warm years were due to a big El Niño. Don’t know that co2 played any role at all.

A C Osborn

And they weren’t anywhere near “Record Breaking” either for the Thermometer records, not when they have cooled the 1997/98 temperatures by 2.9 degrees C.

Clearly
minimum is imminent
within a year from now.
http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/solar-cycle-sunspot-number.gif

Tucker

When I look at that graph, I can see minimum in three years, not one. Current smoothed sunspot value is roughly equal to early 2006 and minimum occurred in 2009.

e.g looking at ssn 25
the decline from a year ago is much steeper than the decline from 2006 toward that mininmum ?
hint
look at the rate of decline

Greg

HP: Hint if slope is much steep we are farther from the minimum. I’m with Tucker. more like 3 than 1.

Greg
Compare the current rate of decline with those of previous cycles.

Ted

Henry, I think it deals with exactly where you’re looking. The smoothed average did drop faster during 2005 than during the portion of 2016 for which it is shown, supporting your contention. But from November 2005 to Feb 2006 there was a sharp decline which is unlikely to be seen once the smoothed average is filled in for the corresponding months of 2016-2017.
The past few months the number has been hovering just above ten, about the same as eleven years ago in 2006. At the beginning of 2016, the smoothed average is near 35, eleven years ago it was about 35.
Start of 2015, between 50 and 55, 2004, between 50 and 55. I believe these are the figures that Tucker and Greg are referring to.

MarkW

Just looking at the last 6 months and comparing it to the trend line, it looks like the trend line is going to level out for awhile.

joe

At the end of SC23, the “97%” consensus was that SC24 would be similar to SC22 and 21, but a few “deniers” said SC24 would be weak. So who were the non-conformists and what are they predicting for SC25?
The (C-AGW) Klimate Khange people call us deniers who refuse to admit that CC is anthropogenic. The Sun does not change and hence cannot be the cause of climate variations.
So then many of us here are double deniers, both CC deniers and solar in-variable deniers!

stan stendera

I would be proud to be included in the double denier cohort!!!

ren

During winter and during periods of low solar activity, ionizing radiation in the lower atmosphere rises.
http://sol.spacenvironment.net/raps_ops/current_files/rtimg/table.png

Some explanation needed for Fig. 6 in the blog. The green graph is called a historic sunspot graph. Sunspot number cannot be negative and it looks like it has passed the minimum. This conflicts with the graphs of real sunspot number of henryp above. Is the original graph available somewhere?

Ed Fix

Gladly.
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/4x54o0ju31v9m/Solar_Simulation
The PDF is a paper published in 2010, and the zip file is all my spreadsheets. Caution: BIG spreadsheets.
The sunspot cycle I used is akin to the Hale cycle. In each successive 11-year cycle the magnetic polarity of the sunspots is reversed (mostly) from the previous cycle. I represented the reversed polarity as a negative number in the graphed sunspot numbers.

ren
Gabro

As would be expected.

No. Why?

Consider solar polar fieldstrength rather than ssn as a function of release of more or less energetic particles that form ozone, peroxide and N oxides TOA

Gabro

Because the highest energy UVC makes and breaks ozone. UVB does to a lesser extent, but some of it penetrates farther into the air, so that its effect can be felt in the troposphere. The vast majority of UV reaching the surface is UVA.

My comment disappeared down WP black hole, i’ll take liberty and repost.
There is not much new here.
As it happens Dr. Svalgaard and some of us were discussing forthcoming solar downturn some 8 or 9 years ago, at the time when the NASA’s top man was predicting opposite.
BTW, as long ago as 2003, I completed paper on exactly what we are observing currently and may indeed occur in next decade or two.
The NASA’s man said impossible. A Nobel prize Astrophysicist, the JPL solar expert and another solar theoretical physicist all reserved their judgement until the SC24 peaks.
So what was the result ?
I called it an ‘incredible coincidence’, the SC24 peaked within a decimal point of what the equation calculates (details are here )

DWR54

Re fig 1: it’s pretty clear that solar cycle 24 (SC24) has seen a lot less total solar irradiance (TSI) from the sun reaching the earth than in the previous 2 solar cycles.
Despite this, the period covering SC24 has been by far the warmest continuous period since instruments began measuring temperatures on earth or in its atmosphere.
It’s pretty clear then that TSI isn’t the dominant influence on surface temperatures that David Archibald seems to believe it is.
Something else is, but what?

Who is guarding the guards? It is already cooling since ca. 2000
Says I

DWR54

Henryp

Who is guarding the guards? It is already cooling since ca. 2000 Says I

You’re entitled to your opinion and to your say of course Henry; but every global temperature data set we have, whether surface or satellite, says different.
Even UAH, the coolest of the global temperature data sets and a measure of the lower troposphere rather than the surface in fact, shows warming at a rate of 0.11 C per decade since 2000. In RSS, which measures the same thing as UAH, the warming reported since 2000 is 0.17 C per decade.
Just saying that there has been ‘no warming since 2000’ is okay as an opinion, but it doesn’t actually stack up with the facts, which some people are sticklers for.

In science. Trust no one but yourself. Have you checked out T min in your own backyard over the past 20 years? What does it tell you?

Gabro

Actually the statement does stack up to observations, upon which it’s based.
There was no warming between the two super El Ninos of 1999 and 2016. If any so-called “data set” shows some, then it’s totally “Mann-made”, not anthropogenic.

DWR54

Henryp

Have you checked out T min in your own backyard over the past 20 years? What does it tell you?

I have done so intermittently Henry; however I am keenly aware that my own back yard is not representative of the globe.
Gabro

There was no warming between the two super El Ninos of 1999 and 2016. If any so-called “data set” shows some, then it’s totally “Mann-made”, not anthropogenic.

How do you know there was “no warming” between 1999 and 2016 if you don’t trust any data set? There’s no way you can say that definitively if you don’t trust any of the global data sets, whether surface or satellite.

Gabro

I didn’t say I didn’t trust any data set, only those which show bogus warming.
Those which show cooling or no statistically significant warming, I trust.
You seem to have misinterpreted my comment.

DWR54

Gabro

I didn’t say I didn’t trust any data set, only those which show bogus warming.

We’ve already confirmed that all global temperature data sets show warming since 2000.

Those which show cooling or no statistically significant warming, I trust.

There aren’t any. Your bar is a temperature data set that shows no warming or else cooling since 2000 even though no such a temperature data set exists.

You seem to have misinterpreted my comment.

Heh.

Javier

Those which show cooling or no statistically significant warming, I trust.

That is called data selection and considered a serious bias.

tony mcleod

Gabro July 11, 2017 at 2:54 pm
Those which show cooling or no statistically significant warming, I trust.
What’s the difference between that and this:
Those that confirm my bias, I trust?

stan stendera

+100

Ktm

USCRN shows cooling since its inception. Current anomalies are below the nClimDiv anomalies from ca. 2000.
So, the question about your own backyard thermometer is well posed, especially for those of us who live in the United states.

A C Osborn

DWR54 July 11, 2017 at 2:18 pm “You’re entitled to your opinion and to your say of course Henry; but every global temperature data set we have, whether surface or satellite, says different. ”
Which of course is not really true.
All of the Raw Ground (Thermometer) datasebases show cooling, as I said above, the final NOAA set 1997/98 final temp has been reduced by 2.9C since 1998/99.
The Satellites are not measuring the same thing at all as they are measuring the heat leaving the Surface via the Atmosphere (ie cooling), which is not what we experience.
You only have to look at the last few months where NH cold temp records have been broken all over the place and yet the Satellites show the SH Anomaly as colder.
This sort of descrepancy has been apparent for years.

Gabro

Javier July 11, 2017 at 5:14 pm
No bias at all. Simply rejecting alleged “data” invented in violation of the scientific method, in favor of actual data, it observations.

DWR54

That should be: “It’s pretty clear then that TSI isn’t the dominant influence on [the observed changes to] surface temperatures that David Archibald seems to believe it is.”
________________
The sun is of course the main contributor to earth’s surface temperature. Sorry.

but not to changes in it.

Gabro

Crackers,
Changes in solar activity do indeed influence surface and air temperature. Dramatically.
CO2, not so much.

DWR54

Agreed. The changes to TSI, during solar cycle 24, which consist of a small reduction in the amount of solar energy received from the sun on earth compared to previous recent cycles, have had no cooling impact whatsoever on observed global surface and atmospheric temperatures.
Contrary to David Archibald’s past predictions, there has not been a reduction in temperatures as a result of this decreased solar irradiance, indeed, the exact opposite has occurred. Temperatures in the surface and lower troposphere data sets have reached record new warm extremes during solar cycle 24; whereas Archibald was predicting a slide into a new ice age!
So something is badly wrong with the solar models David Archibald has been working with this past decade. Even he must see that. So what are his explanations for the clear failures of his previous predictions? Alas, we are never told.

Bill Illis

TSI is still in 1361.75 W/m2 range. The last solar minimum was down to 1361.6 W/m2 for a good 1 and a half years so we are still not down the lowest TSI number which is the one measure which impacts the climate more than any other. It is several Orders of magnitude higher energy higher than all the other measures shown in this post. And it is TOTAL solar irradiance so it is the total solar energy received.
http://lasp.colorado.edu/data/sorce/total_solar_irradiance_plots/images/tim_level3_tsi_24hour_3month_640x480.png

Bill Illis

Sorry image doesn’t update to the current values which is here.comment image

adrian smits

Oviously there is far more involved with the solar cycles than TSI

Dr Deanster

dWR54 …… bajesus ….. why oh why do people keep saying “warmest eva ” in the context of forcing while omitting the impact of the El Niño? R ya just so biased that you can’t say it?
I personally don’t think we r capable of accurately calculating the “global temperature” …. but it doesn’t matter because “global” is meaningless. However, this assertion that the last three years have been the warmest eva without defending the El Niño is just plain disingenuous !

Gabro

TSI is important but so is its spectral composition.
There is a lag in solar effect on climate, since the key is the time integral of solar output. It takes a while for the climate system to get rid of heat from higher solar activity.
But the effect of lower solar power in the current cycle indeed has been felt and is reflected in stagnant to falling temperatures. The 2016 super El Nino blew off a lot of heat, as did the 1999 super El Nino.
No surprise if the 20th century featured the warmest intervals (1930s and ’90s) in the instrument record, since that record began during the Maunder Minimum in the depths of the Little Ice Age.

“TSI is important but so is its spectral composition.”
Gabro, I’ve had some thoughts on this and would value your comments on whether I’ve missed something or if I’m completely off track on this as I’m trying to improve my understanding.
My understanding is that when the Sun is active EUV is high and when it is quiet EUV is, relatively speaking, low. And yet there is not that much variance in TSI.
This seems to suggest that there might be an overall change in the spectral composition of the Sun between active and quiet resulting in a downward shift across the Solar spectrum.
Now EUV interacts with Oxygen and Nitrogen and if my understanding is correct the upper atmosphere is virtually opaque to it.
This would mean the fraction of the TSI’s heat energy entering different parts of the atmosphere would vary, according to the level of the Sun’s activity and might have a larger effect than might be expected from TSI variance alone.
So if the Sun is less active, as it is now, we might expect to see not only less energy imparted to the upper atmosphere but at the same time more energy getting through to the lower atmosphere.
If so this could result in higher air temperatures in the lower atmosphere and the surface of the oceans due to more energy being received there resulting in more active weather in spite of the lower TSI.
However, coupled with this, changes in the jet streams that occur when EUV is low would result in more heat being transported to the poles and would presumably offset any lower atmosphere and ocean heating resulting in the overall effect of cooling over time. (I’m saying this because that’s what we seem to be happening.)

Gabro

Michael,
Since to some extent lower UV correlates with lower TSI, Dr. Svalgaard argues that spectral composition doesn’t matter. I’ve commented that it does, because the climatic effect of UV is qualitatively different from lower energy wavelengths in sunlight. And besides, UV fluctuates much more than does TSI.
The highest energy UV (UVC) is indeed 100% absorbed by the atmosphere, in which it makes and breaks ozone. The vast majority of UVB is also absorbed. The UVA which reaches the surface however is also climatically important because it penetrates seawater farther than visible and IR light.
Your hypotheses about the climatic and meteorological effects of differing spectral bands sound convincing to me, and should be subject to test.

Jeanparisot

Bad measurements?

Imo, the dominant influence of surface temps is the oceans. The Sun feeds the oceans, and the oceans are the main control know of the climate.

MarkW

Two confounding factors.
Thermal inertia and a super El Nino.

Richard Keen

All this makes next month’s total solar eclipse all the more interesting – as if these eclipses can ever not be interesting!
Forty years ago Jack Eddy in his landmark paper on the Maunder Minimum noted lack of florid descriptions of the solar corona during eclipses in that period of the 1600s, concluding that there simply may not have been the lovely corona as we know it from recent eclipses. More about this on this comment I made to one of David’s earlier posts:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/07/01/thus-it-begins/#comment-2539983
So if you eclipse chasers are disappointed in next month’s corona, you heard it first here.
But if, more likely, the corona is normally spectacular – and I think it will be, with the Grand Minimum a cycle or two away, maybe – you also heard that first here.
But don’t let it stop you from going to the eclipse!

Ed Fix

I’ll certainly be there!

Richard Keen

Ed, where?
I’m heading a few hours north to Glendo, Wyoming.
clear skies!

Ed Fix

Richard, I’m thinking western Nebraska, but I’ll be checking the weather in the days leading up, and won’t decide exactly where until the day before or so.

Richard Keen

I, and a dozen friends, will stay in Cheyenne the night before, to get a head start on the northward rush from Colorado on eclipse morning. We have passes for Glendo park, and will go there unless the morning’s weather says elsewhere – E to Nebraska or beyond Glendo to Casper.

vukcevic

Try to be in an area where there are birds. I have witnessed two total eclipses and on the both occasion there was a sudden cool breeze with a dawn chorus couple of minutes later.

what is the climate’s
sensitivity to changes in the
Lyman alpha index? dT/dLai?

A relationship between the Solar Cycle and the Climate must be based on all cumulative Solar Energy reaching the Earth’s surface since year 1650. Year 1700 was the end of the Maunder Minimum. This is the beginning of the Earth’s Oceans warming. This is important since the Oceans store the heat from the Sun.
Now, the Solar Energy obviously comes from the Sun, but the radiation of the Earth’s stored energy [heat] leaves from the North and South Poles. This should be obvious, since the temperature difference between the Equator and the Poles is about 80 to 180 degrees Fahrenheit. Now the energy radiation control is indicated by the Ozone Layer. Ozone layer thick expands the upper atmosphere so much that NASA monitors it to help satellite operators, so they can move their satellites into a higher orbit.
A thicker atmosphere reduces energy flow to space. A thinner atmosphere allows energy flow to space.
The 10.7 Flux is a good indication of the amount of Ozone being formed: Lots of Flux, lots of Ozone; little Flux, little Ozone.
This is the smoking gun of Earth’s Climate control switch.
Presently, we have warm Oceans and low Flux [translates to cooler land]. As the Oceans give up stored heat, the Global temperature must decline!

Gabro

Please see my comments on ozone above. Thanks.

Gabro

PS: Atomic weight of CO2 is 44, but of O3 48.

Gabro

It is also not always appreciated how important O3 was in Earth’s first atmosphere. The young sun produced on the order of 10,000 times more UV than now, while the early atmosphere contained a lot or H2O. Hence, plenty of ozone was made.
Ozone is generally thought only to have become common in the air after the evolution of cyanobacteria, which release oxygen as a waste product of photosynthesis. But ozone abounded during the Hadean and Archean Eons as well, during the emergence of life on Earth.
So the climate of our planet has often, if not always, been influenced by ozone.

sorry, but heat does not leave
the earth by just the N and S poles

I don’t understand Figure 6. It appears as though Mr. Fix or Mr. Archibald think that the sun swaps magnetic polarity at the low point of the sunspot cycle. My understanding is that the swap takes place around the maximum of the sunspot cycle.
What am I missing here?
w.

David Archibald

My bad. The graph shows the solar cycle with every second cycle negative, equating to the oscillations of a spring.

AJB

IIRC, the y-axis units are ‘polarized sunspot number’. The model is barycentre based and does not address hysteretic magnetic cycle evolution.

Ed Fix

The magnetic polarity of the sunspots (actually sunspot pairs) swap at the sunspot minimum. The global magnetic field of the sun swaps around the maximum.

Ed, that’s true … but what you’re counting is sunspot numbers, which vary with the global magnetic field of the sun. As you point out, this swaps around the maximum … but your graph shows it swapping at the minimum.
Best regards,
w.

some confusion here:
there really isn’t something called the ‘global magnetic field’ of the sun.
There is the ‘toroidal magnetic fields’ [east-west] which switch at minimum [sunspots] and ‘poloidal magnetic fields’ [north-south] which switch at maximum.

Ed Fix

Dr. Svalgaard, thanks for the info and clarification.
Willis, individual sunspots, and east-west-oriented sunspot pairs, have their own local magnetic fields. The sunspot pairs of one cycle generally have the one polarity (eg. magnetic north to the east, and magnetic south to the west), and sunspot pairs of the next cycle generally have the opposite polarity.
So the answer to your question is that the (cycle to cycle) alternating local magnetic polarity of the sunspot pairs was the basis for the negative sign I assigned to alternating sunspot numbers. The choice of which polarity was positive and which negative was entirely arbitrary.
The origin of the term “Hale Cycle”, consisting of two 11 year (Schwabe) cycles came about because Dr. G. E. Hale first observed that sunspots have magnetic fields (paper published in 1908) and, during the next cycle that the magnetic polarity of the sunspot pairs was reversed (published 1919). Time and time again, during my literature search for my paper, I found people referring to the Hale cycle and citing the 1908 paper–published long before he had a chance to observe the polarity reversal in the cycle that began in 1912. Makes me wonder if the people citing huge lists of publications actually read any of them.

It is best to always use the terms toroidal and poloidal fields that say precisely what they are.

Sid_Davis

I am glad to see someone else coming at it a different way, and reaching the same conclusion about the length of the 24/25 trough that my time series analysis shows. I have identifies over 200 statistically significant cycles in the 1749 to present sunspot data set, with five of those being major oscillations in the 10 to 12 year range which make up what other people call the 11 year cycle. Those five alone would be a major finding if it can be confirmed by understanding of the physics of the sun that the 11 year cycle is not itself an actual stand alone single oscillation. By projecting these over 200 cycles into the future, the result shows that beginning in the summer of 2018 and lasting for 3.5 to 4 years, there will be virtually no sunspots. Again during the 25/26 trough the numbers will be low, mostly near zero, for a similarly unusually long time compared to historic averages.
For what it is worth, here is a screen shot of the graph of my amateur work, adding these oscillations together in visual form: The top section is continuous from 1749 to sometime past the end of this century. The bottom section is just a blowup of the latter part of the chart. The cycles identified are derived from the actual data, so of course they match fairly closely up until the present, which will only continue into the future if the work is reasonably good.

Sid_Davis

Well, the link to the image did not appear. See if this works.
http://i.imgur.com/h3f8ueT.png
If the link does not appear, you can go to it manually with “http://i.imgur.com/h3f8ueT.png”

AJB

Which sunspot series is this based on?

AJB

You might find this interesting: http://www.sidc.be/silso/spotless

Sid_Davis

The series is version 1.0 of the data collected, I believe originally by the Swiss. I acquired the data in pre-internet days from the Foundation for the Study of Cycles and kept it up from their update until it became readily available on the internet. Times have changed.
I also have done the calculations on version 2.0 after the revision of the early data (something of which I was suspicious) but the results are very close to the version 1.0 results.

There is a 12 year +/- delay between the solar activity maximum at about1991 and the millennial temperature maximum at about 2003.
Climate is controlled by natural cycles. Earth is just past the 2003+/- peak of a millennial cycle and the current cooling trend will likely continue until the next Little Ice Age minimum at about 2650.See the Energy and Environment paper at http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0958305X16686488
and an earlier accessible blog version at http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/2017/02/the-coming-cooling-usefully-accurate_17.html
Here is the abstract for convenience :
“ABSTRACT
This paper argues that the methods used by the establishment climate science community are not fit for purpose and that a new forecasting paradigm should be adopted. Earth’s climate is the result of resonances and beats between various quasi-cyclic processes of varying wavelengths. It is not possible to forecast the future unless we have a good understanding of where the earth is in time in relation to the current phases of those different interacting natural quasi periodicities. Evidence is presented specifying the timing and amplitude of the natural 60+/- year and, more importantly, 1,000 year periodicities (observed emergent behaviors) that are so obvious in the temperature record. Data related to the solar climate driver is discussed and the solar cycle 22 low in the neutron count (high solar activity) in 1991 is identified as a solar activity millennial peak and correlated with the millennial peak -inversion point – in the UAH6 temperature trend in about 2003. The cyclic trends are projected forward and predict a probable general temperature decline in the coming decades and centuries. Estimates of the timing and amplitude of the coming cooling are made. If the real climate outcomes follow a trend which approaches the near term forecasts of this working hypothesis, the divergence between the IPCC forecasts and those projected by this paper will be so large by 2021 as to make the current, supposedly actionable, level of confidence in the IPCC forecasts untenable.”
The current situation is seen in Figs 4 and 5 in the linked blogpost and paper.comment image
Fig 4.UAH6 trends showing the millennial cycle temperature peak at about 2003 (14)
Figure 4 illustrates the working hypothesis that for this UAH6 time series the peak of the Millennial cycle, a very important “golden spike”, can be designated at 2003.
The Hadcrut 4gl data trends are very similar to the UAH6 data trends with the millennial peak at 2005.3 in Fig. 5 (15).comment image
Fig. 5 Hadcrut 4gl trends showing the millennial cycle temperature peak at about 2005.6
The UAH cooling trend in Fig. 4 and the Hadcrut4gl cooling in Fig. 5 were truncated at 2015.3 and 2014.2, respectively, because it makes no sense to start or end the analysis of a time series in the middle of major ENSO events which create ephemeral deviations from the longer term trends. By the end of August 2016, the strong El Nino temperature anomaly had declined rapidly. The cooling trend is likely to be fully restored by the end of 2019.

Bruce of Newcastle

Noteworthy that UV cratered during the Maunder. The following graph is from Shapiro et al 2011:comment image

This Shapiro Figure fits well with my suggested millennial activity peak at 1991.comment image

Yogi Bear

“The heliospheric current sheet tilt angle is 10° off the apparent floor of 3° but, based on the prior solar cycles, could still take a few years to get there.”
By which time it will be 2020, which is when Ed Fix says SC25 maximum will be, a mere six years after the maximum of SC24. Most unlikely.

Hello Ed Fix
Like your model
Thanks
These cycles may contain a lot of uncertainty perhaps even in the form of non-linear dynamics known to exist in almost all natural phenomena.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2767274

stan stendera

+1000

Ed Fix

Hello, Cha-am Jamal
Thanks for the shout. See replies further up for a link to the full paper and calculations, as well as a little more information and/or clarification to what David posted.

Carla

This is really fluxed up.
We know that there was another flux that that went up to a “space age high” and never went back down again.
But whats up with this?comment image
And the current sheet, does it bobble bi-annually, whether it is on its way up, or on the way down?comment image
Talk about your wavy current sheet, wow.

Carla

The Sun in transition? Persistence of near-surface structural changes through Cycle 24
R. Howe, G. R. Davies, W. J. Chaplin, Y. Elsworth, S. Basu, S. J. Hale, W. H. Ball, R. W. Komm
(Submitted on 25 May 2017)
Introduction
…Some activity indicators dropped to remarkably low values
during the Cycle 23/24 minimum (e.g. the geomagnetic aa-index
and the ISN). Solar wind turbulence, as captured by measures of
interplanetary scintillation, had been declining since the early part
of Cycle 23. There have been results suggesting a decline – from
the Cycle 23/24 boundary through the rise of Cycle 24 – in the average
strength of magnetic fields in sunspots (Livingston et al. 2012;
see also Watson et al. 2014) and others pointing to a change in
the size distribution of spots between Cycles 22 and 23 (e.g., see
Clette & Lef`evre 2012; de Toma et al. 2013).
Helioseismic studies of the internal solar dynamics showed
that the characteristics of the meridional flow altered between
Cycles 23 and 24 (Hathaway & Rightmire 2010). Changes to the
meridional flow have potential consequences for flux-transport dynamo
models. Differences have also been seen in the east-west
zonal flows (e.g., Howe et al. 2013) and in the frequency shifts
of globally coherent p modes, which have been weaker than in
preceding cycles (e.g., see Basu et al. 2012; Salabert et al. 2015;
Tripathy et al. 2015; Howe et al. 2015).
Upton & Hathaway (2014) have suggested that it was actually
a weak Cycle 23 that was responsible for the following, extended
minimum and weak Cycle 24. Jiang et al. (2015) have proposed
that observed weak polar magnetic fields, and as a result the weak
Cycle 24, may have resulted from the emergence of low-latitude
flux having the opposite polarity to that expected (which then hindered growth of the polar fields). Predictions for Cycle 25 are now
beginning to appear (e.g., see Pesnell 2016).
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09099.pdf

Carla

Musical Sun reduces range of magnetic activity
Last Updated on Tuesday, 04 July 2017 11:55
Published on Monday, 03 July 2017 23:01
“Recent activity maxima have actually been rather quiet and the last cycle had a long, extended minimum,” notes Elsworth. “It will be interesting to see if the minimum of this current cycle is extended in the manner of the previous one or if it will soon be back to the conditions of the past. However, if it is a normal minimum it will also be interesting to ask why the previous one was unusual.”
In work just published in the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, the team shows that the interior of the Sun has changed in recent years, and that these changes persist in the current cycle. In combination with theoretical models, the observations suggest that the magnetic field distribution in the outer layers may have become a bit thinner. Other seismic data shows that the rotation rate of the Sun has also undergone some changes in the way the Sun rotates at different latitudes.
“Again, this is not how it used to be and the rotation rate has slowed a bit at latitudes around about 60 degrees. We are not quite sure what the consequences of this will be but it’s clear that we are in unusual times. However, we are beginning to detect some features belonging to the next cycle and we can suggest that the next minimum will be in about two years,” says Elsworth.
http://www.ras.org.uk/news-and-press/3008-musical-sun-reduces-range-of-magnetic-activity

Carla

The Sun in transition? Persistence of near-surface structural changes through Cycle 24
R. Howe, G. R. Davies, W. J. Chaplin, Y. Elsworth, S. Basu, S. J. Hale, W. H. Ball, R. W. Komm
(Submitted on 25 May 2017)
Discussion
It is tempting to speculate whether these results, and the multitude
of other unusual signatures relating to Cycle 24, might be
indicative of a longer-lasting transition in solar activity behaviour,
and the operation of the solar dynamo.
The existence of the Maunder Minimum, and other similar
minima suggested by proxy data relevant to millennal timescales,
indicate that there have likely been periods when the action of the
dynamo has been altered significantly. We finish by speculating
whether these events might presage a radical transition suggested
by data on other stars. Results on activity cycle periods shown by
other stars hint at a change in cycle behaviour – a possible transition
from one type of dynamo action to another – at a surface
rotation period of around 20 days (B¨ohm-Vitense 2007). There is
also more recent intriguing evidence from asteroseismic results on
solar-type stars (van Saders et al. 2016; Metcalfe et al. 2016) that
shows that the spin-down behaviour of cool stars changes markedly
once they reach a critical epoch, with the corresponding surface rotation period depending on stellar mass. For solar-mass stars, the results suggest a change in behaviour at about the solar age (and
solar rotation period).

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09099.pdf

You used to show Cycle 5. 24 is more like 4 than 5. Cold weather could come, I agree. But we have low statistical confidence on what 25 will bring.
I think we are in for a cool down (half) cycle. But the science of solar cycles is full of uncertainty. No worse than climate change science, but no better.

Carla

SOLAR CYCLE VARIABILITY INDUCED BY TILT ANGLE SCATTER IN A BABCOCK–LEIGHTON SOLAR DYNAMO MODEL
BIDYA BINAY KARAK AND MARK MIESCH
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1706.08933.pdf
Draft version June 28, 2017
Abstract
We present results from a three-dimensional Babcock–Leighton dynamo model that is sustained by the explicit emergence and dispersal of bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs). On average, each BMR has a systematic tilt given by Joy’s law. Randomness and nonlinearity in the BMR emergence of our model produce variable magnetic cycles. However, when we allow for a random scatter in the tilt angle to mimic the observed departures from Joy’s law, we find more variability in the magnetic cycles. We find that the observed standard
deviation in Joy’s law of σδ = 15◦ produces a variability comparable to observed solar cycle variability of ∼
32%, as quantified by the sunspot number maxima between 1755–2008. We also find that tilt angle scatter can promote grand minima and grand maxima. The time spent in grand minima for σδ = 15◦
is somewhat less than that inferred for the Sun from cosmogenic isotopes (about 9% compared to 17%). However, when we double the tilt scatter to σδ = 30◦, the simulation statistics are comparable to the Sun (∼18% of the time in grand minima and ∼ 10% in grand maxima). Though the Babcock–Leighton mechanism is the only source of poloidal field, we find that our simulations always maintain magnetic cycles even at large fluctuations in the tilt angle. We also demonstrate that tilt quenching is a viable and efficient mechanism for dynamo saturation; a suppression of the tilt by only 1-2◦ is sufficient to limit the dynamo growth. Thus, any potential observational signatures of tilt quenching in the Sun may be subtle.

Germinio

As far as I can see from the original paper Ed Fix’s model makes no sense either mathematically or
physically. In addition the data is then altered to agree with the model.
The original article is at
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780123859563100142
and the relevant equation is Eq. 3 which describes a mass on a spring with damping and a forcing
term. i.e. the acceleration a(t)= -k x(t) +b v(t)+ Fr(t)
this is the “integrated” incorrectly to give Eq (5)
x(t) = F_r*t^2 +v_0*t x_0
this equation is clearly wrong since the solutions for a mass on a spring are oscillatory while his equation
has a parabolic position dependence. Hence the model is fundamentally flawed since he appears to be
incapable of simple integration. Next he approximates this by some sort of weird finite difference and get
rid of the t^2 term by stating that t=1. Which again makes no sense in any mathematical or physical way.
Then he decides that he can reset his model to zero “resetting the initial condition” whenever his model
gives the wrong answer. And “the next manipulation was to reverse the polarity sign of all the sunspot data between 1810 and 1912” because it doesn’t agree with his model. So any agreement between his model
and reality is completely spurious and should not be taken seriously at all.

KLohrn

If Solar cycle magnetics unwind Earth’s orbit enough, we could start taking Mars orbit.

This study was posted by Judith Curry in her weekly science review.
It shows that (surprise surprise!) European climate can be predicted a few years in advance from the heat content of the northerly extension of the gulf stream:
https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15875
From this there is already the prediction of at least half a decade of cooling European climate and Arctic sea ice growth. Both of these are predictable from the northern gulf stream heat, lagged by a few years.
The ocean is the gatekeeper of climate, and it operates slowly with lags of anything from years to thousands of years. (Javier showed previously that obliquity forces interglacials with 6,500 years lag.)
This controlling role of the ocean, and its long lags, are the reason why evidence is so flimsy for prompt climate effects of either solar or CO2 or any other forcing-de-jour. Such prompt effects are illusory and non-existent. All influences on climate go through the ocean and wait in line for a long time.
Weather = atmosphere; climate = ocean.

Robert of Ottawa

Why is the F10.7 Flux/Lyman alpha ratio significant? It appears to just be a haphazard number to me unless there is some underlying physical process.

KTM
I started looking in my own backyard in 2010
here is a summary of results of my investigations, in case you never saw that:
Concerned to show that man made warming (AGW ) is correct and indeed happening, I thought that here [in Pretoria, South Africa} I could easily prove that. Namely the logic following from AGW theory is that more CO2 would trap heat on earth, hence we should find minimum temperature (T) rising pushing up the mean T. Here, in the winter months, we hardly have any rain but we have many people burning fossil fuels to keep warm at night. On any particular cold winter’s day that results in the town area being covered with a greyish layer of air, viewable on a high hill outside town in the early morning.
I figured that as the population increased over the past 40 years, the results of my analysis of the data [of a Pretoria weather station] must show minimum T rising, particularly in the winter months. Much to my surprise I found that the opposite was happening: minimum T here was falling, any month….I first thought that somebody must have made a mistake: the extra CO2 was cooling the atmosphere, ‘not warming it’. As a chemist, that made sense to me as I knew that whilst there were absorptions of CO2 in the area of the spectrum where earth emits, there are also the areas of absorption in the 1-2 um and the 4-5 um range where the sun emits. Not convinced either way by my deliberations and discussions as on a number of websites, I first looked at a number of weather stations around me, to give me an indication of what was happening:comment image
The results puzzled me even more. Somebody [God/Nature] was throwing a ball at me…..The speed of cooling followed a certain pattern, best described by a quadratic function.
I carefully looked at my earth globe and decided on a particular sampling procedure to find out what, if any, the global result would be. Here is my final result on that:comment image
Hence, looking at my final Rsquare on that, I figured out that there is no AGW, at least not measurable.
Arguing with me that 99% of all scientists disagree with me is useless. You cannot have an “election” about science.
My opinion on the sat’s that don’t show the same as my results is that the material used to measure are degenerated more quickly due to the current conditions of the sun. The terrestrial based datasets are all biased towards the NH. Nobody balanced the stations properly NH and SH to zero latitude like I did. In addition, to cancel the effect of longitude, I looked at the average change from the average in K/ year, over the periods indicated.
So, let me stick to my results. Must say: we are talking about minute changes e.g. as can be seen above, my results indicate that T min (global) is going down at an average rate of ca. 0.01K / annum
[my wife still laughs at me for finding such a small silly end result….]

tony mcleod

Do you have any results for the last 17 years?

my graph was made in 2015
including the results of 2014
meaning it is there [except 2015 and 2016]

ren

The relative decline in solar activity will occur after 2020 after the conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn.

Javier

Yes, the 2020 Jupiter-Saturn conjunction is pretty big in astrological circles.
http://i2.wp.com/mauricefernandez.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2-Jupiter-Saturn.png
http://mauricefernandez.com/the-saturn-pluto-conjunction-and-the-transits-for-the-year-2020/
“If we contemplate the whole sequence of astrological events in the year 2020, with its dramatic planetary alignments, we can anticipate great intensity and changes on many levels. These events will likely have a destructive edge as a new world order is programmed — change is not always a smooth process. However, since all the year’s transits culminate in the Jupiter–Saturn conjunction in Aquarius, we will see new solutions and paradigms emerge.”
I wonder why we bother with science and demand evidence.

ren

The gas giant is so big that its centre of mass with the Sun, or barycenter, actually lies 1.07 solar radii from the middle of the Sun — or 7 percent of a Sun-radius above the Sun’s surface. Both the Sun and Jupiter orbit around that point in space.
This not-to-scale gif from NASA illustrates the effect:
https://www.sciencealert.com/jupiter-is-so-freaking-massive-it-doesn-t-actually-orbit-the-sun

jupiter-is-so-freaking-massive-it-doesn-t-actually-orbit-the-sun
If you are standing on the Sun, you will find that Jupiter actually does orbit the Sun. If Jupiter’s orbit were circular [that would not materially alter the center of gravity] you would find that the distance to the sun would always be the same, i.e. Jupiter does orbit the sun perfectly. That the sun wobbles a bit does not change that.

ren

Does a Spin–Orbit Coupling Between the Sun and the Jovian Planets Govern the Solar Cycle?
I. R. G. Wilson A C , B. D. Carter B and I. A. Waite B
+ Author Affiliations
Publications of the Astronomical Society of Australia 25(2) 85-93 https://doi.org/10.1071/AS06018
Submitted: 13 June 2007 Accepted: 28 April 2008 Published: 26 June 2008
Abstract
We present evidence to show that changes in the Sun’s equatorial rotation rate are synchronized with changes in its orbital motion about the barycentre of the Solar System. We propose that this synchronization is indicative of a spin–orbit coupling mechanism operating between the Jovian planets and the Sun. However, we are unable to suggest a plausible underlying physical cause for the coupling. Some researchers have proposed that it is the period of the meridional flow in the convective zone of the Sun that controls both the duration and strength of the Solar cycle. We postulate that the overall period of the meridional flow is set by the level of disruption to the flow that is caused by changes in Sun’s equatorial rotation speed. Based on our claim that changes in the Sun’s equatorial rotation rate are synchronized with changes in the Sun’s orbital motion about the barycentre, we propose that the mean period for the Sun’s meridional flow is set by a Synodic resonance between the flow period (~22.3 yr), the overall 178.7-yr repetition period for the solar orbital motion, and the 19.86-yr synodic period of Jupiter and Saturn.
http://www.publish.csiro.au/as/Fulltext/AS06018

We postulate that the overall period of the meridional flow is set by the level of disruption to the flow that is caused by changes in Sun’s equatorial rotation speed. Based on our claim that changes in the Sun’s equatorial rotation rate are synchronized with changes in the Sun’s orbital motion about the barycentre
Does not explain the phase change that is postulated to match the solar cycles [apart from all the other problems with the idea], so is basically falsified.

Curious George

I use this opportunity to emphasize that the International Space Station does not orbit the Earth, but the barycenter of the Earth-Moon system. Right or wrong?

AJB

To better bet the farm and weather the ravages of political turmoil wrought by an emotional attachment to bogus numerology purporting to be mathematics perhaps 🙂 /cynical
https://solarcycles.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/trading-the-sun.pdf

ren

“Everyone’s assumption has been that the shape of the heliosphere was molded by the flow of interstellar material passing around it,” said Merav Opher, an astronomer at Boston University, who is lead author on the paper. “Scientists thought the solar wind flowing down the tail could easily pull the magnetic fields in the heliosphere along as it flowed by, creating this long tail. But it turns out the magnetic fields are strong enough to resist that pull – so instead they squeeze the solar wind and create these two jets.”
Opher and her colleagues found the jets and determined the new shape when they adjusted simulations of the heliosphere based on observations collected from NASA’s Voyager 1 spacecraft, which recently moved outside of the heliosphere into interstellar space. As the first man-made object outside of our solar system, Voyager provided our only glimpse so far of the interstellar medium and it provided one giant surprise: The magnetic fields out there were aligned pretty much the same as the ones in here, though it had long been expected they would be oriented in a different direction.
https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/two-solar-wind-jets-found-in-the-heliosphere

Sara

You guys are all missing the most obvious issue: what effect will this have on farming and on the food you put on your plate?
Solar cycles affect weather far ahead of changes in climate cycles. Weather is the immediate short-term effect, climate is the longer term effect. The solar input is what drives weather on our little planet, everything from excessive snow-melt to excessive rain and flooding, bitter cold but dry winters (little to no snow), hurricanes/tropical storms, etc. It’s a complex system that does NOT have one answer for everything.
The question we should all be asking is how much will this obviously weaker than normal return to solar activity affect rain and snow totals, both of which have a direct impact on food supplies?
Here’s an example: two years of heavy rains, nearly nonstop, with flooding, will not only make it nearly impossible for any farmer to get out and plow and plant croplands, but will also make the growing/ripening season shorter for grains and will damage those crops. If you think you don’t use grain products, go look at what’s in your cupboard and fridge. That’s only one example.

vukcevic

This is a ‘model’ of sunspot magnetic cycle (hemisphere’s polarity change, not to be confused with polar fields magnetic cycle, two cycles run with 90 degree phase difference) published in January 2004.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SSC.gif
23.724 =2 x 11.862 Jupiter orbital period and 19.859 J-S synodic period. One odd thing about it is that there is phase change every 100 or so years at the sunspot’s centenary minima.

ren

One odd thing about it is that there is phase change every 100 or so years at the sunspot’s centenary minima.
And that shows that the model is incorrect, because we know [from geomagnetic data] that the sun’s magnetic cycle did not have a phase change at any point since the 1840s.

Leif
your graph shows that the solar polar magnetic forces were the weakest ca. 2014
as predicted by me from the Gleisberg solar cycle
weakest in 86.5 years…..
http://oi63.tinypic.com/2ef6xvo.jpg

your graph shows that the solar polar magnetic forces were the weakest ca. 2014
So, they were as they went to zero, but they do that every solar maximum, i.e. about every 11 years.

Leif
I am saying
– there is a Gleisberg SC, 86.5 years, as predicted from my very own results – and the minimum solar polar field strengths was reached at SC 24 max, 2014
– you are saying
that during SC 25 the solar polar magnetic field strengths are going be lower than in SC 24,
following the very logic of your graph….

following the very logic of your graph
Except that the Sun does not know that and does what it wants. We can only watch. And at this point it looks that SC25 is going to be a bit stronger than SC24 because the polar fields are becoming stronger than they were back in 2007-2009.

so
like I told you before
put a mirror at that graph at 2014 and look what will happen in the next 44 years…
it is easy if you studied the actual daily data from 54 weather stations…
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/07/11/monster-solar-minimum-approaching/#comment-2549301

Unfortunately, the Sun does not have a mirror and does not know about your marvelous discoveries. The Sun is now where it was about a century ago, but does not seem to have a memory about what it is supposed to do next.

you finally get it!
the sun is changing its behavior because of….

You tell me…And tell the sun. It doesn’t know.
And not on a 88 [sorry 86.5, or is it 86.51?] cycle.

Explain to all of us why you agree that 2014 was a turning point?

I just wonder if it would be at all possible
To take the ice broken off from the antarctic on a ship to cape town where we have the worst drought in 100 years….
It would be fresh water for us….

funny
shame
now you have to admit one way or another that 2014 was a turning point…
hahah

2014 was a turning point
As is every solar max. Lots of turning points.

Dr. Svalgaard:“…..because we know [from geomagnetic data] that the sun’s magnetic cycle did not have a phase change at any point since the 1840s.”
Hale’s polarity (Hale 1908) is known since 1908 and has been consistently reversing every sunspot cycle for a century since. I don’t know of a method that could have established the polarity for previous two centenary cycles.
SC25 & 26 by all accounts may initiate a new centenary cycle and will show if the Hale polarity is reversed or not. I will not be surprised by either result, but it wouldn’t defy logic if the polarity fails to reverse at the start of either of the next two cycles, after all there are always ‘rogue’ polarity spots at beginning of every cycle.
Physical mechanism ‘explaining’ the Hale’s polarity reversal is based hypothesis that is not possible to verify.

I don’t know of a method that could have established the polarity for previous two centenary cycles.
That you don’t know it, does not mean that it does not exist. The method is explained in Section 9 of
http://www.leif.org/research/suipr699.pdf
An application back to the 1840s is here
http://www.leif.org/EOS/95GL03086.pdf
This is not in doubt, but is a well-established phenomenon

vukcevic

Thanks for references. Your article from 77 I remember reading some years ago, but forgotten most of details, but clearly remember Fig.23, will read again.

Pamela Gray

The machinations evident here is similar to the tortured Mann data. We fillet Mannian methods coming from the other side so we must fillet similar tactics from this side. If simple observation between two entities does not show robust correlation, torturing the data till it does steps outside the necessary limits of research put in place lest we return to belief in snake oil salesmen.

tony mcleod

Looks like Leif has given up trying to counter this crack-pottery, I don’t blame him.

basically, yes. Not worth comments.

Jim G1

Comments such as your one above re phase change are however very helpful.

afonzarelli

Tony, you are being a disingenuous troll here. You disagree with this man’s thought processes and , yet, here you are patting him on the back like Trump patting Putin! (“way to go vlad, i owe you one”) BTW, TSI varies 0.1%, not your 0.001%. Even svalgaard admits to a .1C increase in temperature due to this. What he is in d’nial of are the feedbacks associated with the increase which you apparently aren’t. (so, in reality, you couldn’t be in disagreement with svalgaard any more than you are)…

Toneb

What about the 0.1C decrease when the cycle goes to the minimum? it is a cycle after all and averages out as a big fat zero. Feed-backs the same, unless you are arguing some sort of runaway effect, that mysteriously happened in tune with increasing anthro CO2….. the logic of which is that it will never stop.

afonzarelli

Toneb, .1C would be the result with detrended data. That would say nothing about the trend from feedbacks with an average increase of .05C over the length of the cycle. (one could also argue that the .1C number is actually higher than that)…
Higher solar activity correlates with warming trends:
http://m.imgur.com/yvrMXFy?r

coolclimateinfo

TSI could now be very nearly repeating the 2006-2009 TSI pattern:comment image
I expect a near repeat of the 2005-2008 HadSST3 drop from low TSI going into this minimum:
http://climate4you.com/images/SunspotsMonthlySIDC%20and%20HadSST3%20GlobalMonthlyTempSince1960%20WithSunspotPeriodNumber.gif
This temperature drop will depend on the length of time this low TSI lasts, ie the cycle length.

ren

The decrease in solar activity hinder the creation of a strong El Niño because of changes in circulation.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

Nelson

I am surprised that the decline in the Earth’s magnetic field hasn’t gotten more attention. If recent data showing a 10% per decade decline is evidence that we are moving toward a pole reversal, I would think the potential impacts on climate would be widely discussed. I seldom see it mentioned.

AJB
ren

Hemispheric difference in the change of the geomagnetic intensity is due to the asymmetry (lopsidedness) of the inner core, it melts on one side and crystallises on the other; this enhances/impedes outer core circulation where magnetic field is generated .
Due to the inner core’s differential rotation the effect of hemispheric magnetic intensity time gradient slowly drifts westward.
Strangely but physically not analogues, as far as I know, the sun’s magnetic field is also lopsided, and the anomaly is drifting longitudinally. Few years back (prompted by work of much younger Dr. Svalgaard) from the available data I constructed this diagram:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/nSSLong.gif
which I believe is still unique

which I believe is still unique
Not at all. This had been discussed for over a century. Starting with Maunder. A recent discussion is here
http://www.leif.org/research/AGU-2016-Fall-SH31B-2548.pdf
and here:
http://www.leif.org/EOS/Gough-Is-the-Sun-a-Magnet.pdf

vukcevic

It says:
“Few years back (prompted by work of much younger Dr. Svalgaard) from the available data I constructed this diagram: which I believe is still unique”
In the plain English it says ‘diagram is unique’, your references show nothing of a kind.

afonzarelli

Eh, vuk, the school yard bully’s at it again…

ren

Researchers usually assume that the magnetic field is effectively frozen into the liquid under the surface of the core-mantle boundary (approximately 3000 km below the Earths surface). This means the magnetic field is advected by the flowing liquid (i.e. drifts along with it) over short timescales (< 10 years, say). In reality, the actual interaction between the liquid in the outer core and the magnetic field is far more complex and is currently poorly understood in detail. However, if the simplifying assumption is made that any observed change in the spatial pattern of the magnetic field is due to fluid flow, we can mathematically invert the changes in the magnetic field we measure at and close to the surface of the planet to infer the pattern of fluid flow at the top of the outer core.
Using several years of magnetic field observations from observatories and satellites can help us build up a picture of what the large-scale flow patterns in the core look like (this is known as a steady flow model). Figure 1 (top) shows an image of the changes of the magnetic field and the flow patterns that could cause this on the core-mantle boundary (continents shown for reference). In the Atlantic hemisphere, the flow tends to be relatively fast, while in the Pacific hemisphere it is slow or non-existent. The change of the magnetic field variation and hence the accelerated flow is about ten times smaller (bottom). This map also shows strong changes in the Indian Ocean, suggesting this is a location of relatively rapid acceleration.
http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/research/modelling/SVpredictions.html

ren

What is Swarm?
Swarm is the fifth Earth Explorer mission approved in ESA’s Living Planet Programme, and was successfully launched on 22 November 2013.
The objective of the Swarm mission is to provide the best-ever survey of the geomagnetic field and its temporal evolution as well as the electric field in the atmosphere using a constellation of 3 identical satellites carrying sophisticated magnetometers and electric field instruments.
https://earth.esa.int/web/guest/missions/esa-operational-eo-missions/swarm;jsessionid=5C5CB2F4996DA238E1076CCC951AE817.jvm2

In the plain English it says ‘diagram is unique’, your references show nothing of a kind.
I(f course your diagram is unique unless you stole it somewhere [you must think the readership are morons]. What is not unique is the information it presumably was intended to convey, namely that the sun is magnetically lopsided, as my references so nicely show.

Doc, you made me laugh, the fact that you or your solar colleagues failed to construct one is your problem, else if you did do it would have been here in a flash.
“unless you stole it somewhere “
… ah, that old Danish proverb comes to mind….
It has been long time (mid 1800s) since my great, great grandfather led his gang across the border rustling Ottoman’s cattle. Since the house was bombarded few times by Turkish canons, pot marks are still there in one meter thick stone walls, the family refocused on running somewhat more honest business, producing good quality wine, and rather small quantity of the most excellent crystal clear brandy, which was served by the old president to his most distinguished guests including one Nikita Khrushchev and the word is to the queen Elisabeth, not exactly ladies drink, but I’m sure the old sea veteran Philip the Greek wouldn’t have missed a chance of a tipple or two.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/T&E.jpg

the fact that you or your solar colleagues failed to construct one is your problem
The diagram is just a way of showing what Maunder said a century ago. Because the Sun is rotating, the diagram just shows a time sequence wrapped around the Sun. The physics is that there is longitudinal structure in the Sun’s magnetism, as Wilcox and Gonzales suggested in 1971 [and Gough in 2017]:
http://www.leif.org/research/Wilcox-Gonzales-Dipole.png
Nothing unique about that.

pochas94

Repeating an idea I’ve held for some time. There are 180 years in a Jose cycle. During the first 60 years of a Jose cycle the Schwabe cycles are exactly 10 years long. If the preferred length of a Schwabe cycle is 10 years, then there should be 18 Schwabe cycles in a Jose cycle. But, counting observed cycles, there are only 16. Is there a missing Hale cycle in every Jose cycle? IIRC, a paper by Usoskin suggests that there is no missing Hale cycle, only a period of very low solar activity such that the missing Hale cycle is not observed, even though magnetic activity continues.
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1402.4720v1.pdf