"The World Keeps Not Running Out of Oil"

In an economic sense there are infinite carbon-based resources available for extraction; unless one has infinite money available to pay for the extraction.
What is not well known is that there are three P’s. Proven Possible and Probable. Of the three, Probable has the greater volume. When an oil field is abandoned there are upwards of 50% of the reserves left behind as unrecoverable. These are reserves are uneconomic to recover because of low production or high water cut, etc. Raise the price of oil and Probable reserves move to the Possible and Proven reserves. Reduce the field spacing from 40 acres to 5 acres and the Probable reserves move to Possible and Proven. It just takes money.
In the case of shale oil reserves, lots of oil is left behind because shale oil cannot (presently) be efficiently produced due to the extremely low permeability of the rock. This rock cannot be water flooded, CO2 flooded or fire flooded. But something will come along.
As the price for oil goes up, Probable reserves move to Proven and people adjust their driving habits to accommodate the new price, slowing the transition. Someday someone may invent a battery that is safe, small, able to charge quickly, holds enough power to drive a car a significant distance and affordable. When that day comes we may see Peak Oil.
The problem with Hubberts Peak Oil is that it trys to isolate the oil production from the lower 48 without factoring in any oil production influences from outside the lower US. It is a bad representation of what the truth really is.
If the lower 48 oil production had been kept in isolation from outside production, we would may still not have seen peak oil. Peak Oil is only going to happen when there is a price point where an economic substitue energy source is available that feeds our need to get in our cars and go. This could come from a battery or from a new oil discovery in far far away land. Even then, our Probable reserves of oil would be greater than 50% of what originally existed in the ground.

We are not going to run out of ‘natural’ gas and we are not going to run out of petroleum liquids.
The Nobel Prize winning astrophysics Thomas Gold’s book (William: Highly recommended) the Deep Hot Biosphere provides more than 50 logical pillars based on observations (I can provide an additional 20 logical pillars) which support the assertion that deep core super high-pressure liquid CH4 (CH4 is extruded from the earth’s core as it solidifies, the super high pressure liquid extruded CH4 continually breaks/flows through the mantel and is hence the origin (non-biological, primeval origin), for petroleum, natural gas, black coal, CO2 in the earth’s atmosphere, and the earth’s oceans (the earth’s ocean are saturated with CH4).
Organic metals form in the very, very, high pressure liquid CH4. This enables the super high pressure liquid CH4 to pick up, transport, and concentration specific heavy metals such as gold, uranium, thorium, iron, mercury and so on which explains why there are heavy metals in crude oil and why there are heavy metals in black coal.
The organic metals which form in the very, very, high pressure liquid CH4 drop out at specific pressures. The forced movement of the super high-pressure liquid CH4 from the core of the planet to the crust and the drop out of the organic metals at specific pressures explains why there is heavy metal concentration in the crust of, in some cases, a million times more than the mantel.
One of the competing theories for the concentration of heavy metals in the earth’s crust is movement of water. There is however nothing to force the movement of water through thousands of miles of the mantel. A basic back of the envelop calculation based on the amount of metal that will dissolve in water (at high temperatures) indicates there is no possibility that water motion through the crust would cause the observed super concentration of heavy metals in the crust.
The super high pressure CH4 that is extruded from the core of the earth as it solidifies, provides the force that separates and moves the ocean floors, driving the ocean floor underneath the continental crust.
The CH4 in the ocean crust is left under the continental crust which explains why there are bands of mountain ranges at the edge of the continents and why there are massive gas deposits/liquid petroleum at the edge of continents, in mountain ranges, and immediately offshore of continents.
The competing theory to the deep core CH4 for the origin of the earth’s oceans, natural gas, petroleum, and so on is the late veneer theory. The Mars sized object that struck the earth roughly 200 million after the earth’s formation stripped of most of the light gases from the mantel and most of the early atmosphere.
The late veneer theory hypothesis that a late bombardment of special comets (the special comets must have less noble gases in them to explain why the earth’s atmosphere noble gas concentration does not match that of comets. There are a half dozen observations that cannot be explained by the late veneer theory.
The deep earth CH4 explains why the Earth’s Tectonic plate speed has doubled in the last 2 billion years.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22329843-000-earths-tectonic-plates-have-doubled-their-speed/

Earth’s tectonic plates have doubled their speed
The planet’s inner heat powers plate tectonics. (William: This statement is incorrect. Super high-pressure liquid CH4 extruded from the earth’s core as it solidifies – solidification of the liquid core began roughly a billion years ago – powers tectonic plate motion and explains the formation of mountains not convection motion). That heat is ebbing away as Earth ages, and this was expected to slow plate motion. A study last year by Martin Van Kranendonk at the University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia, and colleagues measured elements concentrated by tectonic action in 3200 rocks from around the world, and concluded that plate motion has been slowing for 1.2 billion years.
Now Kent Condie, a geochemist at the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology in Socorro and his colleagues have used a different approach and concluded that tectonic activity is increasing. They looked at how often new mountain belts form when tectonic plates collide with one another. They then combined these measurements with magnetic data from volcanic rocks to work out at which latitude the rocks formed and how quickly the continents had moved.
Both techniques showed plate motion has accelerated. The average rate of continental collisions, and the average speed with which the continents change latitude, has doubled over the last 2 billion years (Precambrian Research, doi.org/vbv).
“We expected to find that the average speed would be slowing down with time, but we didn’t get that. Both speeds were going up,” says Condie. “It was a surprise.”
Condie thinks the mantle’s huge store of water could explain the finding (Nope. Movement of super high pressure liquid CH4 which also explains a couple of dozen what moves plate tectonic theory anomalies and paradoxes, convection motion does not explain the observations). When crust sinks back into the mantle, oceanic water gets sucked down too, and although most comes back to the surface in volcanic emissions, over the aeons the store of water in the mantle has grown vast.

The super high pressure extruded core extruded CH4 explains an astonishing long list of anomalies and paradoxes that the convection motion cannot explain. The lack of mechanism to move tectonic plates is one of the reason it took 25 years for the plate tectonic theory to get acceptance from the geological community.
The following is a summary of the some of the tectonic plate movement anomalies and paradoxes.
P.S. There is a low hanging fruit Nobel prize to connect the dots.
This is an interesting summary of the some the anomalies and paradoxes concerning how to explain why and how the tectonic plates have moved and what mechanism creates mountains.
http://www.davidpratt.info/tecto.htm

The driving force of plate movements was initially claimed to be mantle-deep convection currents welling up beneath midocean ridges, with downwelling occurring beneath ocean trenches.
Since the existence of layering in the mantle was considered to render whole-mantle convection unlikely, two-layer convection models were also proposed. Jeffreys (1974) argued that convection cannot take place because it is a self-damping process, as described by the Lomnitz law. Plate tectonicists expected seismic tomography to provide clear evidence of a well-organized convection-cell pattern, but it has actually provided strong evidence against the existence of large, plate-propelling convection cells in the upper mantle (Anderson, Tanimoto, and Zhang, 1992). Many geologists now think that mantle convection is a result of plate motion rather than its cause, and that it is shallow rather than mantle deep (McGeary and Plummer, 1998).
The favored plate-driving mechanisms at present are “ridge-push” and “slab-pull,” though their adequacy is very much in doubt. Slab-pull is believed to be the dominant mechanism, and refers to the gravitational subsidence of subducted slabs.
However, it will not work for plates that are largely continental, or that have leading edges that are continental, because continental crust cannot be bodily subducted due to its low density, and it seems utterly unrealistic to imagine that ridge-push from the Mid-Atlantic Ridge alone could move the 120°-wide Eurasian plate (Lowman, 1986). Moreover, evidence for the long-term weakness of large rock masses casts doubt on the idea that edge forces can be transmitted from one margin of a “plate” to its interior or opposite margin (Keith, 1993).
Thirteen major plates are currently recognized, ranging in size from about 400 by 2500 km to 10,000 by 10,000 km, together with a proliferating number of microplates (over 100 so far). Van Andel (1998) writes:
Where plate boundaries adjoin continents, matters often become very complex and have demanded an ever denser thicket of ad hoc modifications and amendments to the theory and practice of plate tectonics in the form of microplates, obscure plate boundaries, and exotic terranes. A good example is the Mediterranean, where the collisions between Africa and a swarm of microcontinents have produced a tectonic nightmare that is far from resolved. More disturbingly, some of the present plate boundaries, especially in the eastern Mediterranean, appear to be so diffuse and so anomalous that they cannot be compared to the three types of plate boundaries of the basic theory.
Plate boundaries are identified and defined mainly on the basis of earthquake and volcanic activity. The close correspondence between plate edges and belts of earthquakes and volcanoes is therefore to be expected and can hardly be regarded as one of the “successes” of plate tectonics (McGeary and Plummer, 1998). Moreover, the simple pattern of earthquakes around the Pacific Basin on which plate-tectonics models have hitherto been based has been seriously undermined by more recent studies showing a surprisingly large number of earthquakes in deep-sea regions previously thought to be aseismic (Storetvedt, 1997). Another major problem is that several “plate boundaries” are purely theoretical and appear to be nonexistent, including the northwest Pacific boundary of the Pacific, North American, and Eurasian plates, the southern boundary of the Philippine plate, part of the southern boundary of the Pacific plate, and most of the northern and southern boundaries of the South American plate (Stanley, 1989).

If Hillary had won, peak oil would have been last year.
Regulations, restrictions, declaring vast areas off limits to exploration.
“The War on Coal” would have just been 1st gear.