The Week That Was: 2017-07-08 (July 8, 2017)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
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Quote of the Week. “Whoever is careless with the truth in small matters cannot be trusted with important matters: “– Albert Einstein
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Number of the Week: 39%
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THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
New Atmospheric Data? Roy Spencer responds to the recent paper by Mears and Wentz, who are principals in Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), competitors with the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH). As speculated in last week’s TWTW, this may be part of an effort to discredit John Christy’s effective testimony on Capitol Hill that global climate models greatly overestimate the warming trend of the atmosphere. Spencer states:
“Before I go into the details, let’s keep all of this in perspective. Our globally-averaged trend is now about +0.12 C/decade, while the new RSS trend has increased to about +0.17 C/decade.
“Note these trends are still well below the average climate model trend for LT [Lower Troposphere], which is +0.27 C/decade.” [Boldface was italic in the original.]
What we see is that extending warming trends for a century, the models calculate a century-long trend of 1 degree C above the RSS calculations and 1.5 degrees C above the UAH calculations. The so-called “corrections” of 0.5 degrees C to the RSS data are not that significant when compared with the overestimates of the average of the global climate models.
Among other points, Spencer discusses the different techniques used by the two groups to adjust for the error in the diurnal cycle (daily pattern) in the climate models. UAH uses empirically derived adjustments, RSS uses model derived adjustments. As Spencer states:
“In general, it is difficult for us to follow the chain of diurnal corrections in the new RSS paper. Using a climate model to make the diurnal drift adjustments, but then adjusting those adjustments with empirical satellite data feels somewhat convoluted to us.”
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Surface Data: For some years, independent meteorologists such as Joseph D’Aleo have noticed a disturbing trend in historic data reported by certain government entities, such as NOAA, Ashville (previously called the National Climatic Data Center, now called the National Centers for Environmental Information). These historic data are used by NOAA, NASA and the Hadley CRU. Hadley CRU is a dataset developed at the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia in England and the Hadley Centre (the UK Met Office). In general, multiple adjustments were made to the historic data that reduced past warm periods. The net effect was to give a greater present day warming trend, than in the past.
For example, in the US, many long-term records were set in the 1930s, but the current, adjusted data does not show that decade as particularly hot, when compared to today. And, the US was the world-wide gold standard for temperature measurements.
A new study by Wallace, D’Aleo, and Idso systematically analyzes the Global Average Surface Temperatures reported by NOAA, NASA, and Hadley CRU. The results are striking. For example, Figure IV-1 shows five different plots of 5-year temperature trends by NASA-GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies on Broadway) produced from 1980 to 2015. The period around 1940 became progressively cooler in these plots. Similar adjustments have been made to the other datasets as well as to datasets for specific locations.
The study recognizes that adjustments to surface data may need to be changed, but the overall trend reflected in the changes appears to create a bias in the data. Further, strong cyclical patterns that once appeared are muted. A comprehensive review of the adjustments is in order.
Side note: Some of those who established the standards for US weather stations, which became the world-wide gold standard, were members of the oldest science society of Washington. As a past president of that society, this author finds the tarnishing of that standard particularly disturbing. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Red Team / Blue Team: In several instances in congressional testimony, John Christy has called for a Red Team/Blue Team approach for addressing the US issues regarding climate science. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its followers such as the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) are well funded by government. They attribute climate change to primarily human activities, particularly carbon dioxide emissions.
As Christy points out, what is lacking is a well-funded Red Team:
“…[to] look at issues such as natural variability, the failure of climate models and the huge benefits to society from affordable energy, carbon-based and otherwise. I would expect such a team would offer to congress some very different conclusions regarding the human impacts on climate.”
One can liken this approach to the adversarial arguments in a criminal court of law. (CO2 is a criminal?) The reports of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change were intended to have a Red Team approach. However, the publisher, The Heartland Institute and other groups, do not have the deep, multi-billion-dollar pockets enjoyed by the IPCC, USGCRP, etc.
This idea appears to be gaining attention. In Climate Etc. Judith Curry discusses the idea more fully. We have had decades of spurious claims about the dangers of carbon dioxide, which is essential for life as we generally understand it. Such an approach may help dispel decades of myths such as a 97% consensus, CO2 can be seen from smoke-stacks, etc. It would be important to establish solid rules of evidence, such as unvalidated models are not hard evidence, and to avoid dogmatic participants. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Seeking a Common Ground.
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Executive Actions: The Constitution is a practical guide for government, limiting the powers of its branches. From this comes the popular term “checks and balances.” Increasingly, some of the executive actions of the prior administration are being discarded. Since these actions are not law, there is no reason for the current administration to keep them, should it so choose to change them. Increasingly, the Trump administration is reversing executive actions under the Obama administration.
The same can be said for the Paris Accord (Agreement) which the Obama administration sold to the public as an executive action and did not send to the Senate for two-thirds approval, as required by the Constitution for a treaty. The cries of those who expected great sums of money through the Paris agreement, such as Christiana Figueres, formerly Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), are not significant. They knowingly played a game, and lost. As discussed in last week’s TWTW, Ms. Figueres formed an organization expecting up to One Trillion Dollars a year. See Article # 1 and links under After Paris!
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Economic Return on Energy Investment: Writing for the Global Warming Policy Forum, Economics Professor Michael Kelly brings up an important concept that many writers on energy issues fail to consider: Economic Return on Energy Investment.
In the US, following the Civil War, fossil fuels such as coal quickly replaced biomass (wood) and muscle power (animal and human). The economy boomed. People found the care and feeding of a steam engine is much easier than the care and feeding of horses. City streets became much cleaner, and boots were no longer needed. What was important was not the number of people employed in a particular energy sector, but the employment the energy sector created in other economic sectors.
Kelly’s Economic Return on Energy Investment is a measure of the productivity of various energy types. He finds that 9% of the global GDP is tied up in energy, yielding a return of about 11:1. For coal and gas power plants, the return is about 50:1. For nuclear power plants it is about 70:1. The low values of traditional biomass, and other external issues bring the global value down to 11:1.
Applying this analysis to solar photovoltaics, he finds a return of less than 4:1; for wind power, a return of less than 8:1. In brief, there is not much opportunity for solar and wind to lift the third world to modern European standards. See links under Questioning European Green.
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Offshore Wind: Often, wind promoters claim offshore wind is reliable, even though it is becoming obvious that onshore wind is not. Writing in Energy Matters, Roger Andrews examines the validity of this claim for the world’s wind nation, Denmark, and finds it wanting – without considering added costs of salt water corrosion.
“Previous Energy Matters posts that highlight the difficulties of integrating intermittent wind power with the grid have been based dominantly on onshore wind data, but claims that offshore wind is significantly less erratic and will therefore be much easier to integrate with the grid have not been checked. This post reviews the question of whether it will. It finds that offshore wind is indeed less erratic than onshore wind but still nowhere near consistent enough to do away with the need for storage or conventional backup generation.”
Finding solid data is always a major problem for such studies, but he succeeds in finding a database for Denmark that separates onshore and offshore production. The analysis covers three years, 2014 to 2016. A small country, Denmark is ringed with offshore wind farms on three sides.
Rogers finds that offshore wind has a capacity factor of 43% as compared with onshore wind of 25%; but, also, that when wind dies onshore it does so offshore as well. Back-up is needed for both. Given that offshore wind costs about twice that of onshore, it is not much of a bargain. See links under Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind.
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Number of the Week: 39%: The island of El Hierro in the Canary Islands was to be a show-case of 100% wind power for electricity. Excess electricity would be used for pumped hydro storage, to be used when the wind failed to meet demand. After two full years of operation, the system provided 39.1% of the electricity needed. The balance came from diesel generators. The reservoirs are inadequate for the hydro component. But the circus continues with plans for wind supplying a higher percentage of total energy needs. Have those in the Pentagon who bragged about weather-dependent wind power helping the nation’s energy security heard of this island? See link under Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind.
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SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD
THE JACKSON
SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving, following these criteria:
· The nominee has advanced, or proposes to advance, significant expansion of governmental power, regulation, or control over the public or significant sections of the general economy.
· The nominee does so by declaring such measures are necessary to protect public health, welfare, or the environment.
· The nominee declares that physical science supports such measures.
· The physical science supporting the measures is flimsy at best, and possibly non-existent.
The five past recipients, Lisa Jackson, Barack Obama, John Kerry, Ernest Moniz and John Holdren are not eligible. Generally, the committee that makes the selection prefers a candidate with a national or international presence. The voting will close on July 30. Please send your nominee and a brief reason why the person is qualified for the honor to Ken@SEPP.org. Thank you. The award will be presented at the annual meeting of the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness in August.
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NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
Closely Coupled: Solar Activity and Sea Level
Guest essay by David Archibald, ICECAP, July 3, 2017
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/political-climate/closely_coupled_solar_activity_and_sea_level/
The Solar Harbinger
Guest essay by David Archibald, WUWT, July 5, 2017
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/07/05/the-solar-harbinger/
Censorship
University professors afraid to teach controversial subjects for fear of being sacked, conference hears
By Harry Yorke, Telegraph, UK, June 29, 2017
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2013
https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-II/CCR-II-Full.pdf
Summary: http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2a/pdf/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2014
http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2b/pdf/Full-Report.pdf
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, NIPCC, Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Challenging the Orthodoxy
U.S. House Committee on Science, Space & Technology
Testimony of John R. Christy, Professor of Atmospheric Science, UAH, Mar 29, 2017
Comments on the New RSS Lower Tropospheric Temperature Dataset
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, July 6, 2017
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/07/comments-on-the-new-rss-lower-tropospheric-temperature-dataset/
Exclusive: Study Finds Temperature Adjustments Account For ‘Nearly All Of The Warming’ In Climate Data
By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, July 5, 2017 [H/t GWPF]
Link to report: On the Validity of NOAA, NASA and Hadley CRU Global Average Surface Temperature Data & The Validity of EPA’s CO2 Endangerment Finding
By Wallace, D’Aleo, and Idso, June 2017
https://thsresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/05/ef-gast-data-research-report-062717.pdf
New Research Report on the Validity of Global Average Surface Temperature Data and EPA’s GHG Endangerment Finding
By Alan Carlin, Carlin Economics and Science, July 5, 2017
http://www.carlineconomics.com/archives/3712
[SEPP Comment: See paper immediately above.]
China Met Office Confirms Global Warming Hiatus
By David Whitehouse, GWPF, July 4, 2017
https://www.thegwpf.com/china-recognises-the-warming-hiatus/
Inconvenient Math?
By Michael S. Bernstam, Hoover Institution, Via GWPF, July 3, 2017
https://www.thegwpf.com/michael-bernstam-inconvenient-math/
[SEPP Comment: Establishing a standard for evaluating the need for political action.]
Response to MIT President: Paris Exit Scientifically Sound (Part II)
By Willie Soon and Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, Master Resource, July 6, 2017
https://www.masterresource.org/climate-science/mit-president-exit-paris-ii/
Response to MIT President: Paris Exit Scientifically Sound (Part I)
By Willie Soon and Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, Master Resource, July 5, 2017
https://www.masterresource.org/climate-science/mit-president-exit-paris-i/
Defending the Orthodoxy
Scientists are starting to clear up one of the biggest controversies in climate science
By Chelsea Harvey, Washington Post, July 5, 2017
Link to paper: Slow climate mode reconciles historical and model-based estimates of climate sensitivity
By Cristian Proistosescu and Peter J. Huybers, Science Advances, July 5, 2017
http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/7/e1602821
[SEPP Comment: See post by Nic Lewis in Climate Audit below. The Washington Post article has a great made-up graphic showing regional temperature change over the globe since 1880 – when there were few thermometers outside of the US and western Europe.]
France to end sales of gasoline, diesel vehicles by 2040
By Devin Henry, The Hill, July 6, 2017
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Does a new paper really reconcile instrumental and model-based climate sensitivity estimates?
A guest post by Nic Lewis, Climate Audit, July 8, 2017
[SEPP Comment: Long post addressing the Proisosescu and Huybers paper above.]
Monumental, unsustainable environmental impacts
By Paul Driessen, ICECAP, July 2, 2017
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/in-the-news/monumental_unsustainable_environmental_impacts1/
The Uncertainty Monster: Lessons From Non-Orthodox Economics
By Vincent Randall, Climate Etc. July 5, 2017
“But good economists have to weigh up the strengths and weaknesses of the statistical material that they use before passing judgements.”
[SEPP Comment: The weighing of the statistical material must be articulated, frequently it is not.]
The Santer Clause
By John McLean, ICECAP, July 2, 2017
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/the_santer_clause1/
After Paris!
World Bank: Middle East conflicts impede climate and other objectives
By Daniel J. Graeber, Washington (UPI), Jun 19, 2017
Forget Paris: 1600 New Coal Power Plants Built Around The World
By Hiroko Tabuchi, NYT, Via GWPF July 2, 2017
https://www.thegwpf.com/forget-paris-1600-new-coal-power-plants-to-be-built-around-the-world/
[SEPP Comment: The World Bank will not finance building of coal-fired power plants, but China will!]
What “Climate Leadership” Really Means — Lots More Coal
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, July 2, 2017
http://manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2017/7/2/what-climate-leadership-really-means-more-coal
Costliest Gas in World Clouds China’s Campaign for Bluer Skies
By Staff Writers, Bloomberg, July 4, 2017
“Progress has been steady but slow. Last year in Beijing, average concentrations of PM2.5 — small particles that pose the greatest risk to human health — fell almost 10 percent,…”
[SEPP Comment; Is PM2.5 the greatest risk to human health?]
Heavy reliance on coal is likely to stymie Japan’s climate agreement goals
By Yuka Obayashi and Ami Miyazaki, Japan Times, July 5, 2017 [H/t GWPF]
Global socialists vs. national capitalists
The climate accord is another vehicle to transport wealth to struggling socialist systems
By Anthony Sadar, Washington Tomes, June 29, 2017
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jun/29/climate-accord-will-transfer-wealth-to-socialist-c/
Russia as Media Manipulator: Nothing New
By Charles Battig, American Thinker, June 27, 2017
http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2017/06/russia_as_media_manipulator_nothing_new.html
Change in US Administrations
Pruitt will launch program to ‘critique’ climate science
By Emily Holden, E&E News, June 30, 2017
https://www.eenews.net/stories/1060056858
Change in US Administrations — Favor
Opening a New Era for U.S. Offshore Energy
By Mark Green, Energy Tomorrow, June 29, 2017
http://energytomorrow.org/blog/2017/06/29/opening-a-new-era-for-us-offshore-energy
Rick Perry’s Plans for US Energy Dominance
By Fred Lucas, the Daily Signal, July 5, 2017 [H/t Cooler Heads]
http://dailysignal.com/2017/07/05/rick-perrys-plans-for-us-energy-dominance/
Why Trump is right about wind power and his detractors are wrong
By Isaac Orr and Fred Palmer, The Heartland Institute, The Des Moines Register, June 28, 2017
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Climate change not an objective for UK at G20 as Theresa May meets Donald Trump
The Prime Minister has not made the environment one of her four key priorities
By Jon Stone, The Independent, UK, July 7, 2017 [H/t GWPF]
Seeking a Common Ground
Trump administration plans to challenge climate science in series of debates
Groups look to reverse scientific findings underlying U.S. regulations on greenhouse gas emissions
By Staff Writers, Thomson Reuters, July 5, 2017 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/trump-challenge-climate-science-1.4190809
What is red teaming?
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. July 3, 2017
https://judithcurry.com/2017/07/03/what-is-red-teaming/#more-23173
Red Teaming Climate Change
By Ron Bailey, Reason Online, July 6, 2017 [H/t GWPF]
http://reason.com/blog/2017/07/06/red-teaming-climate-chang1
“Assume that the Trump administration can actually find and persuade qualified people to participate in good faith with climate Red Teams. Is it reasonable to hope that the results of such an exercise would actually change climate-change partisans’ minds? Probably not, but we may as well give it a try.”
Leading Climate Scientist Says Debating Scientific Theories Would Be ‘Un-American’
You’d think the 97 percent of scientists who supposedly all agree about climate change would eagerly line up to vanquish climate deniers—but apparently not.
By Julie Kelly, The Federalist, July 6, 2017
http://thefederalist.com/2017/07/06/leading-climate-scientist-science-debate-un-american/
The Laws of Averages: Part 2, A Beam of Darkness
Guest Essay by Kip Hansen, WUWT, June 19, 2017
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/06/19/the-laws-of-averages-part-2-a-beam-of-darkness/
“In a broad general sense, the availability of these software packages now allows students and researchers to make [often unfounded] claims for their data by using statistical methods to arrive at numerical results — all without understanding either the methods or the true significance or meaning of the results.”
Science, Policy, and Evidence
Dr Birol’s Melchett Lecture 2017
By John Constable, GWPF, July 5, 2017
https://www.thegwpf.com/dr-birols-melchett-lecture-2017/
“No one could possibly be offended, or positively informed.
[Afterward] “Walking down Albermarle Street and through the thronging crowds and frantic traffic of Piccadilly I had the strong impression that if climate policy were to continue on its present track it would have to rely on an increasingly coercive, even authoritarian policy environment. Dr Birol didn’t say anything of the kind, of course. That was just my heart speaking.”
Models v. Observations
Another paper shows that climate models and climate reality vary – greatly
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, June 28, 2017
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/06/28/173948/
Measurement Issues — Surface
Feds: 2017 is US’s second-warmest year on record so far
By Devin Henry, The Hill, July 7, 2017
Link to report: U.S. saw 2nd warmest year to date on record and warmer-than-average June
Nation has experienced 9 billion-dollar disasters so far, including 3 tornado outbreaks
By Staff Writers, NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, July 7, 2017
http://www.noaa.gov/news/us-saw-2nd-warmest-year-to-date-on-record-and-warmer-than-average-june
[SEPP Comment: How would it compare with the 1930s prior to recent “adjustments”?]
On Sunday, Goulburn got colder than the BOM thought was possible (and a raw data record was “adjusted”).
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 6, 2017
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
UAH Global Temperature Update for June, 2017: +0.21 deg. C
Lowest global temperature anomaly in last 2 years (since July, 2015)
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, July 3, 2017
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/07/uah-global-temperature-update-for-june-2017-0-21-deg-c/
UAH Map and Graph for June 2017
http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2017/june/JUNE_2017%20map.png
http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2017/june/tlt_update_bar_062017.jpg
Changing Weather
Deadly heat wave spurs record electricity use across Southwest
By Sammy Roth, the Desert Sun, June 26, 2017
Record breaking cold weather hits Australia’s south east
No Wonder it was difficult getting out of bed this morning. If you’re desperate for days to get warmer, we have some good news.
By Benedict Brook, News. Com, AU, July 3, 2017 [H/t GWPF]
The ‘killer winter’ that took a harsh toll on America’s wildlife: Experts reveal western US experienced huge losses
Deep snow and movement between cold and subzero temperatures caused chaos with ice and snow forming
Prolonged snow cover on winter grounds made it difficult for to find food
Spells of bitter cold made matters worse for animals by hardening the snow
Wildlife managers are reducing hunting permits in the hard-hit areas
By Staff Writers, Daily Mail, July 5, 2017
Changing Climate
Study: California once had 150 straight years of stormy, wet, weather
By Anthony Wattts, WUWT, June 20, 2017
Before this “8.2 ka event” was discovered scientists thought the world’s climate had been unusually stable during the Holocene, the geological epoch that covers the last 11,700 years of Earth’s history.
[SEPP Comment: Unable to link to paper. The Holocene was stable?]
Changing Seas
Claim: Oceans are warming rapidly, study says
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, June 30, 2017
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/06/30/claim-oceans-are-warming-rapidly-study-says/
Link to paper: Consensuses and discrepancies of basin-scale ocean heat content changes in different ocean analyses
By Gongjie Wang, Lijing Cheng. John Abraham, and Chongyin Li, Climate Dynamics, June 12, 2017
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-017-3751-5
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Impressive Cold in Greenland and Near Record Accumulations of Snow and Ice
By Paul Dorian, Vencore, Inc. July 6, 2017 [H/t GWPF]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Estimating the cost to America of damage from climate change in the 21st century
By Larry Kummer, Climate Etc. July 1, 2017
[SEPP Comment: Kummer exposes another doubtful paper.]
Rising seas could result in 2 billion refugees by 2100
Press Release by Lindsey Hadlock, Cornell University, June 23, 2017 [H/t Energy Matters]
http://mediarelations.cornell.edu/2017/06/23/rising-seas-could-result-in-2-billion-refugees-by-2100/
Link to paper: Impediments to inland resettlement under conditions of accelerated sea level rise
By Charles Geisler and Ben Currens, Land Use Policy July 2017
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837715301812
“’We’re going to have more people on less land and sooner that we think,’ said lead author Charles Geisler, professor emeritus of development sociology at Cornell. ‘The future rise in global mean sea level probably won’t be gradual. Yet few policy makers are taking stock of the significant barriers to entry that coastal climate refugees, like other refugees, will encounter when they migrate to higher ground.’”
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Pop Quiz: To get cheaper electricity should we build a/ new coal plant, or b/ pay $3b in renewable subsidies?
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 3, 2017
Michael Kelly: A Challenge For Renewable Energies
By Prof Michael J Kelly, Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge, GWPF, July 5, 2017
https://www.thegwpf.com/michael-kelly-a-challenge-for-renewable-energies/
Link to prior study: A Primer on Energy and the Economy: Energy’s Large Share of the Economy Requires Caution in Determining Policies That Affect It
By Staff Writers, IER, Feb 16, 2010
New Study Concludes Europe Will Always Require 100% Back-Up By Conventional Energy
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 5, 2017
Green Jobs
The left’s misleading green jobs claims
Renewable energy workers produce relatively little power
By H. Sterling Burnett, Washington Times, July 6 2017 [H/t Cooler Heads]
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jul/6/green-jobs-forecast-by-left-is-unfounded/
Litigation Issues
Trump’s EPA suffers court defeat on Obama methane rules
By John Siciliano, Washington Examiner, July 3, 2017
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
The Empire Strikes Back: Britain’s solar revival
By Liam Stoker, PVTech, July 4, 2017
https://www.pv-tech.org/editors-blog/the-empire-strikes-back-britains-solar-revival
Today the UK solar industry celebrates Solar Independence Day.
[SEPP Comment: Independence from government? Subsidies are not needed if government mandates are in place.]
Energy Issues – Non-US
Barrel Half Empty
By Sarah Miller, Energy Intelligence, July 2017
http://beta.energyintel.com/world-energy-opinion/barrel-half-empty/
Germans’ Electric Bills Soar While Their Climate Protection Sinks
By Jacob Grandstaff, Capital Research Center, July 5, 2017 [H/t GWPF]
Onshore Wind and Solar Power Generate Miniscule Amounts Of Power In England
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 2, 2017
[SEPP Comment: As with US EIA data, one must separate biomass and hydro from renewable data to get the impact of wind and solar, which is minimal.]
Will 2017 Be the Year the UK Finally Embraces Shale?
By Staff Writers, The American Interest, July 5, 2017
https://www.the-american-interest.com/2017/07/05/will-2017-year-uk-finally-embraces-shale/
Energy Issues — Australia
The Disastrous Electricity Situation In Australia
By Bryan Leland, GWPF, July 4, 2017
https://www.thegwpf.com/the-disastrous-electricity-situation-in-australia/
Tesla To Build Battery Backup For S Australia
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 7, 2017
News report: Tesla to build world’s largest lithium ion battery in Australia
By Staff Writers, BBC, July 7, 2017
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-40527784
“In other words, enough to run for about 80 minutes. Musk previously quoted a price of $250/KW, which works out at $25 million.”
Electricity cost train-wreck arrives in Australia
Something very “seismic” has happened to our electricity prices.
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 7, 2017
http://joannenova.com.au/2017/07/electricity-cost-train-wreck-arrives-in-australia/
Wind disappears in South Australia, costing wind-industry millions, BOM blames climate change even though models predicted faster winds
By Jo Nova, Here Blog, July 5, 2017
Energy Issues — US
Even as renewables increase, fossil fuels continue to dominate U.S. energy mix
By Michael Mobila, EIA, July 3, 2017
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=31892&src=email
After $3 billion spent, Keystone XL can’t get oil companies to sign on
By Christopher M. Matthews and Bradley Olson, June 29, 2017
EPA proposes cutting biofuels mandate for 2018
By Devin Henry, The Hill, July 5, 2017
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/340726-epa-proposes-cutting-biofuels-mandate-for-2018
[SEPP Comment: The renewable fuel standard is an obsolete law. The new regulations do not meet the targets for cellulosic and advanced biofuels – recognizing they are not available.]
Washington’s Control of Energy
[Department of Interior Secretary] Zinke orders end to drilling permit delays on federal lands
By John Siciliano, Washington Examiner, July 6, 2017
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
North America Is Making OPEC Irrelevant
By Staff Writers, The American Interest, July 2, 2017
https://www.the-american-interest.com/2017/07/02/north-america-making-opec-irrelevant/
“This all adds up to a truth that the oil historian Daniel Yergin hit on last year: ‘[t]he era of Opec as a decisive force in the world economy is over.’
[SEPP Comment: OPEC is irrelevant for US and Canadian energy security; but, not for determining world oil prices.]
U.S. Shale Revolution Has Arrived In Britain
By Staff Writer, Financial Times, Via GWPF, July 6, 2017
https://www.thegwpf.com/u-s-shale-revolution-has-arrived-in-britain/
[SEPP Comment: Chart of LNG from Sabine Pass by importing country: top 10 are, in descending order: Mexico, Chile, Argentina, Japan, China, Jordon, South Korea, India, Turkey, Kuwait.]
With A Permian Well, They Cried More, More, More – Gas Takeaway Constraints Pose Challenge For Crude
By Housley Carr, RBN Energy, June 27, 2017
[SEPP Comment: Take this gas please!]
Return of King Coal?
Coal Boom: 1600 new plants in 62 countries around the world – increasing 43%
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 4, 2017
Oil Spills, Gas Leaks, Earthquakes & Consequences
Hydraulic fracturing rarely linked to felt seismic tremors
Researchers find only one hydrocarbon-producing area where production is linked to increased seismic activities at the regional scale
Press Release, University of Alberta, June 26, 2017 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/06/170626124338.htm
Link to paper: Human-induced seismicity and large-scale hydrocarbon production in the USA and Canada
By Mirko van der Baan and Frank J. Calixto, Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, July 6, 2017
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Nuclear Power v. Renewable Subsidies
By Roger O’Neill, CEI, July 5, 2017
https://cei.org/blog/nuclear-power-v-renewable-subsidies
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Can offshore wind be integrated with the grid?
By Roger Andrews, Energy Matters, July 7, 2017
http://euanmearns.com/can-offshore-wind-be-integrated-with-the-grid/#more-18852
El Hierro June 2017 performance update – GdV completes two years of operation
By Roger Andrews, Energy Matters, July 3, 2017
http://euanmearns.com/el-hierro-june-2017-performance-update-gdv-completes-two-years-of-operation/
Energy & Environmental Newsletter:
By John Droz Jr. Master Resource, July 3, 2017
Floating Offshore Wind Has Come of Age. Now It’s Ready to Scale
By Jason Deign, Green Tech Media, July 6, 2017
“By 2030, MAKE Consulting, which is owned by GTM’s parent company Wood Mackenzie, predicts around 4 gigawatts of floating offshore capacity will have been installed worldwide.
This is a drop in the ocean compared to the almost 1,260 gigawatts of wind capacity that the Global Wind Energy Council expects to see installed by 2030, under its most conservative forecast.”
[SEPP Comment: No discussion of salt water corrosion.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Exxon Makes a Biofuel Breakthrough
By Jennifer Dlougy, Bloomberg, June 19, 2017
[SEPP Comment: Will green groups consider fuel from GMO algae morally wrong?]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Are electric cars going mainstream?
By Martin Livermore, The Scientific Alliance, July 7, 2017
http://scientific-alliance.org/scientific-alliance-newsletter/are-electric-cars-going-mainstream
Volvo Going Green
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 7, 2017
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2017/07/07/28567/
Carbon Schemes
Another blow to CCS, as EU power giants bow out of Dutch project
By Sophie Vorrath, Renew Economy, June 30, 2017
http://reneweconomy.com.au/another-blow-ccs-eu-power-giants-bow-dutch-project-18852/
Carbon Capture wrong technology, says new report
By D.C. Fraser, Regina Leader Post, July 7, 2017 [H/t GWPF]
http://leaderpost.com/news/politics/carbon-capture-wrong-technology-says-new-report
Blowout Week 183
By Roger Andres, Energy Matters, July 1, 2017
http://euanmearns.com/blowout-week-183/
“Our lead story this week features carbon capture and storage. CCS has been on life support for some time, but with the failure of the flagship Kemper project even the greens are now asking whether it’s an economically viable emissions-reduction technology, and when the greens start asking such questions we can be sure it isn’t.”
California Dreaming
California governor to host climate summit amid clash with Trump
By Reid Wilson, The Hill, July 6, 2017
Health, Energy, and Climate
‘We’re Going To Insist That Any Barrier Be Science-Based’: Trump Administration On Food
By Hank Campbell, ACSH, June 19, 2017
The New Dark Age: EU Court Issues Insane Ruling On Vaccines
By Alex Berezow, ACSH, June 21, 2017
http://www.acsh.org/news/2017/06/21/new-dark-age-eu-court-issues-insane-ruling-vaccines-11468
Environmental Industry
The prophets of eco-doom: a perfect record of failure
By Hal G.P. Colebatch, News Weekly, July 3, 2017 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.newsweekly.com.au/article.php?id=57698
Other Scientific News
Researchers find out how bromine fits into Venusian chemistry
By Staff Writers, Moscow, Russia (SPX), Jul 03, 2017
Link to paper: Search for HBr and bromine photochemistry on Venus
By Vladimir A. Krasnopolskya and Denis A. Belyaevb, Icarus, Sep 1, 2017
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0019103516307837
“Since the 1960s, numerous space probes have been sent to Venus. Because 17 out of 24 successful missions were launched by the Soviet Union, scientists dubbed it ‘the Russian planet.’ Back in the middle of the 20th century, sci-fi writers imagined Venus as a habitable planet covered entirely by ocean, expecting that it would welcome future generations of earthlings.
“But the ‘morning star’ had many surprises in store for its would-be colonists. The first Soviet probes that attempted to land on Venus were crushed by immense pressures in the lower atmosphere before they could reach the surface of the planet.
“The temperature of the surface of Venus and its lower atmosphere is extremely high: 460 degrees Celsius at the surface, and atmospheric pressure on Venus is 93 times that on Earth. Under these extreme conditions, rather peculiar compounds are formed and released into Venusian atmosphere, such as hydrogen chloride and hydrogen fluoride.”
Other News that May Be of Interest
Are asteroids humanity’s ‘greatest challenge’?
By Mari�tte Le Roux, Paris (AFP), June 28, 2017
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Are_asteroids_humanitys_greatest_challenge_999.html
The Sixth Genesis: A Man-Made, Mass-Speciation Event
By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, July 3, 2017
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/mass-speciation/
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BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Kites Could Be the Future of Wind Power
UK company Kite Power Systems is developing a way to draw power from high-altitude winds.
By Avery Thompson, Popular Mechanics, July 5, 2017
http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/a27183/kites-future-of-wind-power/
Not all beer and skittles
By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions, July 4, 2017
http://climatechangepredictions.org/uncategorized/8367
“According to Jim Salinger, a climate scientist at New Zealand’s National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, the warming globe will likely cause a decline in the production of malting barley, which, when combined with the scarcity of hops right now, stands to have a profound and negative impact on the world’s beer supply starting now, and for decades to come.
“’It will mean either there will be pubs without beer or the cost of beer will go up,’ Salinger told the Institute of Brewing and Distilling convention. He said climate change could cause a drop in beer production within 30 years, especially in parts of Australia, as dry areas become drier and water shortages worsen. Treehugger, 10 Apr 2008
[SEPP Comment: Will “The pub with no beer” become “the song” of Australia?]
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1. Pruitt’s Clean Water Break
Obama’s legacy of rule by decree is rapidly being undone.
Editorial, WSJ, July 2, 2017
https://www.wsj.com/articles/pruitts-clean-water-break-1499030184
The editorial states:
“President Trump is having a hard time getting legislation through Congress, but his Administration is moving fast to roll back Barack Obama’s pen- and-a-phone lawmaking. The latest example, which barely registered in the press, is the Environmental Protection Agency’s decision last week to rescind the unilateral rewrite of the Clean Water Act.
“The Obama EPA in 2015 redefined “waters of the United States” under the Clean Water Act to include any land with a “significant nexus” to a navigable waterway. Several arbitrary thresholds were used to determine significance, such as land within a 100-year floodplain and 1,500 feet of the high-water mark of waters under government jurisdiction. The rule extended the government’s writ to prairie potholes, vernal pools and backyard creeks.
“Thirty-one states sued the feds for violating the Administrative Procedure Act, and the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals enjoined the rule nationwide. Now Administrator Scott Pruitt is putting the rule on ice while the EPA works up a replacement. Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy muddied the waters with his controlling opinion in the 2006 Rapanos v. U.S. case that conceived the new “significant nexus” standard, which the Obama EPA used as a pretext to pursue its water land grab.
Side comment: Piles of wet leaves have been arbitrarily been considered proof of “waters of the United States”, leaving the landowner with no recourse but seeking relief by expensive litigation.
“Mr. Pruitt said the EPA will propose a new rule ‘in accordance with Supreme Court decisions, agency guidance, and longstanding practice’ that would ‘return power to the states and provide regulatory certainty.’ Consider it another lesson in the limits of pen-and-phone rule by decree.”
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DMI has finally updated the Greenland SMB page. It shows that the SMB trend moved sideways over the last week of no updates. That means that the current Greenland SMB is still over 100 gt above the average trend line. The melt season will be over with in around 6 weeks. If the SMB remains at this current very high level, then how much snow gain will be seen during this upcoming winter, perhaps several hundred Gt over average? Lastly, what effect will this change in Greenland SMB have on Europe and the NH for this upcoming winter? …http://beta.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/
Also of some interest, Antarctic temps took a sharp dip from yesterday’s -93 deg F, and dropped to -102+ deg F. …https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=143.87,-84.25,497/loc=69.627,-86.314
re. Professors being sacked.
If a scholar’s work is inconvenient to politicized activist groups, that scholar can expect them to go for his or her throat. It does indeed involve the risk of being fired or worse.
Alice Dreger has written Galileo’s Middle Finger. In it she recounts the plight of researchers whose work contradicts the propaganda of the transgender community.
Some of the activists Dreger talks about remind one of the Climate Mafia.
So, exactly how is it possible for those who planned a 100% wind power island to fail to see where the reservoir capacity could be found? An island is generally not a good spot for a reservoir that feeds downhill into a turbine (pumped storage). Mountains are where they are almost always located. The largest has been in Bath County Virginia for many years and had nothing to do with storing renewable power (still doesn’t) , but with storing excess nighttime power from nuclear plants, since nuclear plants cannot ramp up and down with any speed, and were designed to run at their maximim capacity all the time. So this storage simply was a way to provide peak storage during the day and save money, since peak gas generators at the time used very expensive natural gas, which is certainy no longer the case.
As for storage, a lull in the wind can last quite some time (as I recall, Britain’s offshore wind died for months several years ago) . There is therefore the problem of being able to afford enough back up storage, and then, after the winds comes back, what is going to replenish that storage capacity and provide power at the same time? We see that this all points to the fact that wind capacity will have to be far in excess of what would be required for reliable on-demand power sources. Excess capacity beyond what is needed costs money, lots of money, even when that excess capacity is not used. Unreliable power sources always call for duplicative capacity and duplicative capacity always costs more. This isn’t rocket science, although the greenies are deaf, dumb and blind when it comes to power systems. They have always put forth ridiculously simple-minded arguments for the costs of renewables – they always underestimate the actual costs.
Art, El Hierro is 4,925 ft worth of mountain.
OT but the climate kooks are blowing it, turns up the fear dial past “11” to “12”. Take a look at the New Yorker bit of apocalyptic science fiction that purports to be “serious” analysis. We are literally going to make the Earth unable to sustain life and it is all President Trump’s fault for listening to us deplorables and pulling out of Paris. What is a predictable reaction by those duped into believing this sort of hysterical lying? The cynical fear mongering and delusional magical thinking if climate kooks is now a barely veiled call for violence against skeptics.
‘Is PM2.5 the greatest risk to human health?’
Steve Milloy has buried that one. See
junkscience.com
The rot can be traced to the Ivy League Universities Harvard, Princeton, Yale, etc. These universities all value profit, large presigea grants, puplications, getting rich and publicity above all other concerns. These uninversities have set the tone all other instituions around the world now follow. Loyalty to your nation or humanity, honor, objectivity, adherence to high scientific concepts and standards are no longer taught at these institutions. The scentists, journalists, judges, businese people, lawyers, physicians, and poliiticians graduating from these institutions leave with no moral, ethical or scientific standards. Their mantra is to build a name themselves and the university, become rich so will be innvited by your alma mater to give speeches, contribute $$$ as an alumni to show your success, and DO NOT CARE ABOUT THOSE YOU SCREW OVER TO ACCOMPLISH these GOALS!
Why would anyone be surprised to discover the above graduates cheat and lie?
Was the Mann corruption at his trial covered? http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2017/07/things_get_hot_for_michael_mann.html