Long-time WUWT readers will recognize the title as being a spoof on the infamous line about snow uttered by Dr. David Viner of the University of East Anglia some years ago in the Independent (now deleted, but preserved here) where he claimed in an article Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past by Charles Onians:
However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.
“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.
Less than a year ago, the New York Times claimed in a headline: California Braces for Unending Drought and the phrase “permanent drought” was in use in the media.
Wired claimed: Thanks El Niño, But California’s Drought Is Probably Forever The Sacramento Bee wailed: Opinion: What if California’s drought is permanent? Over at Salon, where they know better than everybody about everything, they claimed: “It could last decades”: 5 shocking facts about California’s drought
Now we have headlines like: Drenched: How L.A. went from bone-dry to 216% of normal rainfall in four months
The drought map, is shrinking compared to a year ago. Only 11 percent of California remains in severe drought, less than 1 percent of California now in ‘extreme’ drought, and most of Northern California is drought free:
Source: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CA
According to the California Dept. of Water Resources, 8 of 10 major reservoirs are above the 100% mark for historical averages:
Source: http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/products/rescond.pdf
And much of the USA is drought free now:
When less than two years ago, NYT said:
Droughts appear to be intensifying over much of the West and Southwest as a result of global warming. Over the past decade, droughts in some regions have rivaled the epic dry spells of the 1930s and 1950s.
Looks like the doomsayers were wrong…again.
It ain’t science that’s for sure. Naturally California will build a bullet train they don’t need for billion but no new water storage.
I’m going to go out on a limb and predict another drought in California’s future. Maybe I can work for the Pacific Institute.
Oroville dam spillway is being wiped out right now…
https://www.google.com/#q=oroville+dam&tbm=nws
OMG, it’s getting worse. It’s almost as bad as it used to be.
There seems to be extreme drought conditions in western Connecticut. I wonder why?
Could it be because Connecticut begins with ‘C’ and that is similar to California?
No, one has 4 vowels. The other has 5.
But that would make a great research project to correlate placename vowels and the impacts of AGW. Where is my research grant?
This is all very well but the I want to know is: will this year be a good wine year?
In the end this is all that really matters.
Ed, you and I could be friends. You could be really good friends with my wife!
Only Californians can build major cities in a desert, and then complain
when it doesn’t rain.
There are no major cities in the California desert.
Las Vegas is a major city built in the desert. I am there now and the do complain when rains.
Most of California is a semi-arid Mediterranean climate with hot dry summers that depend on irrigation.
The “desert” dwellers do not complain. It is the coasters that are always whining.
More impressively, as shown in the national drought map, outside of Southern California, much of the Southwest is free of drought, and almost none any longer in even considered in Moderate Drought.
It has been common knowledge that the SW is in a long-term, decades long, drought, and expected to shift to a Mega-Drought — news touted as recently at October last year.
Certainly look like even the current “abnormally dry” conditions are beginning to disappear.
If California secedes from the United States, it will almost totally eliminate SWUS Drought at once!
Kip,
From the summary at the link you posted:
“As a consequence of a warming Earth, the risk of a megadrought — one that lasts more than 35 years — in the American Southwest likely will rise from a low chance over the past thousand years to a 20- to 50-percent chance in this century. However, by slashing greenhouse gas emissions, these risks are nearly cut in half, according to a new study”.
Do you agree with that?
harkin1 ==> The link was to an extremely alarmist press release about a nonsense study that basically said “If it keeps getting hotter and drier in the SW there will be a long drought”.
Instead of a Mega-Drought, most of the already considered decadal drought has disappeared, except in Southern California, just several months later. So much for their prediction.
Their prediction is trivially true — IF it keeps getting hotter and hotter in the SW and it doesn’t rain in the SW for many years there will be a mega-drought. Of course, that is the definition of a mega-drought. Saying that “if there is a Mega-Drought there will be a Mega-Drought” is silly.
So now they will have to start over on counting drought years for mist of the SW.
Kip,
Many thanks. I’ve always valued your input here and at Climate Etc.
“much of the Southwest is free of drought,…”
How stupid is that statement?
The desert southwest is really, really, ….really, really dry. When it rains there are flash floods. That is the normal. Fun with statistics.
Retired ==> I don’t make up the definitions — we’re referring to the United States Drought Monitor’s map — someone stuck it in above. If you use their Change Maps you bsee how much things have improved in the Southwestern US over the last year.
Deserts aren’t deserts because of what we call drought — they are deserts because of their long term rainfall patterns, environmental and ecological conditions, type of vegetation, soil type, and so on — not just recent rainfall. Deserts are, according to the USGS, “always dry”.
Droughts, however, are : “prolonged periods of abnormally low rainfall; a shortage of water resulting from this.”
I grew up out there in southern California — hiking and camping all over the southwest, and believe me, conditions during droughts are far different than normal conditions out there in those deserts.
“A pretty girl In the Imperial Valley,
California, carrying home the family
sapply qf drinking water, given free
to people in that drought-stricken
area from tanks’ sent along the railway-
line by the Government”
http://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/229573552?searchTerm=californian%20drought&searchLimits=
Addition to nice find by e.richard: August 25, 1934
More re: 1934
(https://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/14/nasa-study-finds-1934-had-worst-drought-of-last-thousand-years/ )
Note: it was not the record heat that was the main cause of the crop failure/”Dust Bowl” drought situation, it was poor soil management.
Also, there was a blocking high that prevented precipitation:
Ibid.
Do not plough up a drought resistant plant- Prairie grass- that can withstand 30 years of drought and even flower during one.
Clue in there for all those who think there is climate change – DROUGHT resistant plant.
Does the “Unending Drought” come with breadsticks?
Nope. Sorry. Only if you order the soup.
(there is a drought of authentic Italian cuisine at this place, so, it is on topic)
Likely no one will have read the above (or this), but, I feel bad slamming a nice American family restaurant, so: Olive Garden has some great things on the menu, but, for the price, the quality should be, in many cases, better.
My older sister knows I not a big fan of said restaurant. She said we were going to a small Italian family restaurant. Sure looked like a typical strip mall chain restaurant. It was in California but could be anyplace.
We love cheap Mexican family restaurants too. Our daughter from NYC always wants to treat us to an expensive restaurant. Do you want expensive or do you want good food?
Kit P — I agree with you 100%. 🙂
Absolutely.
Our local Mirch Masala does good food at a good price.
Auto.
Regardless of the drought ending California needs a plan for handling future droughts. Mandatory conservation isn’t going to bring more water to the area, just stretch the capabilities of the supply system already in place. There will always be some areas of the country in drought and some with excess water, moving it around seems well within our technological capabilities but apparently too expensive since there is no nationwide water network, at least not one to supply California. It seems absurd that with all the challenges there are in trying to keep a stable economy and society the thing that rose to the top of the problem list and almost crippled California is a lower than normal amount of rain for five years. Tree ring measurements and other data tell us California has been through several droughts that have lasted decades over the last 1000 years, yet we were not prepared for a five year drought. We put a man on the moon 50 years ago, but today we don’t have a method to maintain the water supply in the most populated state in the nation? That is on the coast no less.
“most populated state in the nation”
So Steve do see the relationship between a mild semi-arid climate and clueless people who do not like snow?
There plan is to not have a plan and depend on others for power and water.
@Steve- California already has that with their reservoir system. However due to eco nuts, they cannot store the water as they have to release it to “protect” the snail darters.
Don’t confuse “can’t” with “won’t”. The issue in California is the dingbats won’t make the investments needed to maintain their water supply.
We voted for a proposition 2 years ago that authorized $7 billion for dams. Except… anyone who read the proposition description would have learned that the money would actually be allocated to destruction of existing dams, support to poor communities, and ‘studies’ for new dams. However, the Sierra Club made it quite clear in the 70’s that the Melones Reservoir would be the last dam in Kalifornia. They fought it tooth and nail.
We just gave away $7B to further erode infrastructure. Fortunately, Kalifornia is a magical place, and everything will be just fine once we build a bullet train between two towns no one goes to, and put a satellite in space to monitor something already monitored by dozens of other satellites.
I love Moonbeam. They say a neurotic builds castles in the sky, but psychotics live in them. Welcome to Kalifornia! You too can live in an imaginary castle!
I think Viner’s classic article was removed less than a year ago.
Probably it’s on the Wayback machine.
No, no, no – we will have to change the definition of “drought” to make sure we can still get the headlines. How about separating it from that pesky rainfall measurement? We have a hard time fudging that one because there are too many independent measurements. So how about we base it on estimated shortfall between supply and demand? That way, as demand increases we can weep and wail over projected shortfalls in supply and keep the catastrophe headlines rolling…..
Rob,
I note the plan to keep the grants flowing, too.
Basic. Yet effective.
When simply moving water from A to B to C to D shouldn’t be so very difficult for Californian engineers.
But, of course, if there is a lack of political will – ask the voters.
Auto, noting that voters were asked and voted for Brexit, DJ Trump, and – well tomorrow will tell, but, maybe Madame La President Le Pen; even Geert Wildersin the Netherlands . . .
Most of early 20th century California owes its’ prosperity to oil extraction like many of the elites today who are clamoring for “renewable energy”. Southern California owes it’s growth as well to the Hoover Dam supplying most of the energy required to power the homes but today they don’t count that electricity as renewable because….well because. Now the answer to possible future water shortages is to continue private homeowner drought measures while they open their border to unlimited invasion. California breeds hypocrisy.
“Hoover Dam supplying most of the energy required to power the homes”
How wrong is that? Markl is forgetting about the nuke and gas fired power plants in Cali. Not to mention all the coal fired power plants the California pretend do not exist when they import large amounts of power.
We need to coin a term for selective power source identification.
Like the City of Seattle that claims to be fossil fuel free. Of course the coal and gas fired power plants at Centralia are still running full speed.
I believe the Centralia plant is owned/operated by Transalta, not Seattle Power and Light. Some of the power from Centralia MAY be contracted to Seattle however.
Retired Kit P commented: “…“Hoover Dam supplying most of the energy required to power the homes” ….How wrong is that? Markl is forgetting about the nuke and gas fired power plants in Cali.
RKP is forgetting that during the “growth” of early Southern California nuke and gas fired power plants hadn’t been invented yet. Think first.
Given the current deluge in C. and S. Kalifornia, you might have waited for next week’s updated map, which will show even more extensive “drought-free” white area.
Damn reality!!
I have lived in out of California since the 1960. Fortunately, my high school and college education took place outside of California where draft dodging hippie had not taken over the education system. Younger brothers and sisters, nieces and nephews, and my two oldest children still live there.
It was not until 1980 when I got out of navy nuclear program and went to work for California companies in nuclear power to 1993 that I began to understand how clueless political leadership in California was. If you look at EIA data for hydropower production back to 1950, one out five years is a drought year.
The first year I was at Rancho Seco, there was a terrible flood. The next year they were draining the reservoirs to prevent flooding from the melting snowpack. Except there was a drought and the snowpack was minimal.
Drought years seem to correspond to very hot summers and higher demand for electricity. The year before closing Rancho Seco, the nuke plant was needed because hydro was down. The year it was closed, it was cooler and there was plenty of hydro. The nuke is not needed.
By the time of the 2000/2001, I had been Washington State for many years. However the company I worked for did have merchant fossil plants in California so I had inside information. California politicians were warned of the potential problems. Apparently it is easier to find someone to blame than be responsible and have a plan to mitigate the problems if they occur.
Like Governor Moonbeam scolding Californians for using much more water a few years ago than was projected in the 1990s without ever once mentioning that he had welcomed over 10 million illegals and their accompanying water needs.
Agriculture uses lots of water and migrant workers.
I have no reason to believe that the legal status of immigrants has anything to with the supply of water.
The number of people determines the amount of water needed for drinking, cleaning, sewer, lawns, etc.
If there were no illegals that usage would be reduced.
And not all migrants are illegals.
re legal vs illegal immigrants – it is not valid to assume that, if the immigration system were effective, all those who are now here as illegals would also be in the same places if they came legally.
You know how the East coast of Oz is cranking up the aircons and dealing with heat wave conditions? Well over in the West it’s been raining just a bit-
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-10/wa-towns-being-evacuated-amid-heavy-rainfall-flooding/8258178
Yes we remember one Climate Commissioner’s dire predictions-
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-08-16/wa-climate-change-trend/2841130
obviously wagged poetry lessons and missed the scribblings of a talented schoolgirl that could look about her and appreciate the big picture a century ago without all today’s computers and BOM wizardry-
http://www.dorotheamackellar.com.au/archive/mycountry.htm
And who could forget the King of climate forecasting comedy Tim Flannery’s dire prophesy back in 2004 that “Perth would be the 21st century’s first ghost metropolis” when drought was going to be the “new norm”. When will they ever learn?
‘Droughts appear to be intensifying … as a result of … warming. …’
Looks like the {NYT was} wrong…again.
(Source: http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/af/frnts/cfrnt/def.rxml )
Cooler air generally leads to drier air which leads to: drought.
http://images.slideplayer.com/24/7016601/slides/slide_16.jpg
Moreover, CO2 not only does not cause drought, it is a GREAT REMEDY FOR DROUGHT:
(http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/05/01/more-carbon-dioxide-please/ )
Paul Mathews: what exactly do those four **** stand for in your post above? 🙂
Keith ==> My guess? ….raud….
“I grew up out there in southern California — hiking and camping all over the southwest, and believe me, …”
That sounds like a reason to not believe Kip and think he is clueless, I mean like totally man totally.
I am open to the possibility that that someone from California is not clueless. Just be cause I have not found any, the absence of evidence is not evidence.
Kip do have some other experience besides ‘growing up’ to support your position.
California (and in general the American Southwest) is generally drought prone with years of feast and years of famine. This has been known since California was owned by Mexico. It is a good thing California has a good series of dams and well maintained reservoirs in order to catch heavy rains like they are having now.
Oh, wait…
Not to pick in Kip, but I have noticed that the ‘locals’ are often the wrong people to ask about were they live when comes to the natural world.
The problem with picking people from Texas or West Virginia is that they have concealed weapons permits. Armed and dangerous.
Those from Southern California do not even know they are clueless. I am not saying you can not have fascinating conversations about fashion or fat shoppers at Walmart.
Gave new neighbors from Southern California a ride. They asked what the ice scarper was. Did not last the winter. Gave UVa CHP a ride after he put his 4wd in the ditch with a quarter inch of snow. He told me I could not make it the hill with my UV. Before dropping him off someplace warm, I asked if he was from Southern California. It is not that hard. I learned the first day behind the wheel. Of course there was not much choice unless I wanted to spring.
No accountability for fearmongering. No accountability for the climate scientists who were wrong. No accountability for the climate scientists who knew better but stayed quiet for the cause.