If you think it is colder than you remember last year, your’e right. Winter hasn’t officially started yet, it begins on Wednesday, December 21st. But the numbers tell a cold hard fact: as of 7 a.m. EST this morning, Sunday, Dec. 18, the average temperature across the Lower 48 states of the U.S. is colder than any time all last winter.
As this plot of hourly temperatures shows, the average temperature is 16 degrees. F, which is 4 degrees colder than any time last winter. What’s worse, the coldest part of winter is still six weeks away.
(graphic courtesy of Weatherbell.com with h/t to Dr. Roy Spencer)
I can’t wait for Monday, March 20th, 2017, when spring starts.
UPDATE: Feel like doing something good at Christmastime? Read this
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16? It was 90 here in Ft. Myers, FL
Heat wave – global warming. Record cold – global warming. Record torrential rain – global warming. Droughts – global warming. Trump beats Hillary -global warming. Wait a minute; satellite and balloon records show that there has been no appreciable GLOBAL warming for 19 years and counting. The IPCC and other AGW “Sky Is Falling” loons were ready for that. Notice how the “warming” has been quietly dropped? Now it’s “climate change,” suggesting the absurdity that the climate has never changed in the past when anyone with an IQ bigger than their waist size knows that it has changed regularly since the planet was formed.
Based on this cold spell, is anyone here predicting that December 2016 will be record cold; or that winter 2016/17 (defined meteorologically as DJF) will be record cold in the US48; or colder than the 20th century average; or just colder than the 1981-2010 average, even?
November 2016 was the second warmest November on record for the US48 according to NCEI: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/ I don’t recall that being mentioned here. Certainly it wasn’t the subject of a lead article. Yet a relatively brief cold spell in mid December gets its own post and around 300 comments.
Notice how the “warming” has been quietly dropped? Now it’s “climate change
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was convened in 1988.
Both terms have been in use for decades. Global warming refers to global change of temperature (including oceans) in the positive direction. Climate change refers to that and other stuff that isn’t temperature (sea level, ice, changing weather patterns etc).
Darn that global warming !!!!
I’m not surprised. We’re in a La Nina now, and weren’t we in an El Nino then?
I read that last Winter was the warmest US Winter in the instrumental record.
If so, then a colder December this year isn’t really news of anything, is it? This is a weather report, not a perspective on climate or climate change.
Seems Weatherbell use NOAA data for their chart (I had a god look over their website – they use NOAA/NCEP data for US exclusively it seems).
Their chart based on the same data that people regularly call fraudulent here. I see that some have done that upthread, and wonder if they realize it undermines the point of the OP?
It’s likely not that simple, I use NCDC data for my charts, I just don’t add all the made up junk, like all natural orange juice, if it’s not measured it’s not made up and included.
So, do you think weather bell does the same stupid stuff BEST does? I don’t.
What did the raw NCDC data show for November?
The algorithms I use need a full year of data, so I have not loaded 2016 yet.
So, do you think weather bell does the same stupid stuff BEST does? I don’t.
For the chart in the OP, Weatherbell have used NOAA data as is, not their own slice and dice. (BEST has nothing to do with it. Let’s stick to the matters at hand)
Maybe I miss typed, but I thought I said they do not do the stupid stuff BEST does.
Perhaps I misunderstood. If you’re saying NOAA data is valid, then last US Winter (Dec, Jan, Feb) was the warmest on record according to that data set – not surprising, perhaps, considering that was the peak of a strong el Nino in the Pacific – which makes a colder day this December a bit less astonishing.
We’re talking about weather, not climate. But I think that we’re supposed to think that a cold spot in December is climatically meaningful?
Noaa data is what we have. It is OK for the US and most of Eurasia, but lacking the rest of the planet. I’m on my phone so I’m not sure what your comment about my comment is about. But it is important to note how fast the planetary temp drops at the end of an El Nino. If all that heat was trapped by co2, how exactly does it cool a full degree over a handful of months?
Oh, and climate is just a statistical average of weather for 30 years, right?
So, do you think weather bell does the same stupid stuff BEST does? I don’t.
What about producing some scientific report on “BEST’s stupid stuff”, micro6500?
So we could understand what you mean.
Eh, I’ve posted links and graphics from my stuff for a couple years now. Basically they should stop making up data for places that have never been measured, that’d be a good start.
Oh, and climate is just a statistical average of weather for 30 years, right?
That’s the classic definition for global/large regional climate.
Yes, we have large fluctuations. El Nino/la Nina is one of the primary interannual fluctuations. So you need longer periods to discern any trend underlying the ‘noise’ of large natural fluctuation.
Where on Earth did anyone get the idea that weather and interannual fluctuations would cease to occur if more CO2 got added to the atmosphere? We could still have a 1C drop in temps over a few months when the Earth was 10 degrees hotter than today. And someone may cry out that this means the planet was not 9C warmer?
It’s disappointing to be digging the same old ditch 15 years into the climate debate. Weather is not climate!
Barry: It’s disappointing to be digging the same old ditch 15 years into the climate debate. Weather is not climate!
@barry
First of all, I note that you ignored my challenge to bring me a re-calibration certificate of a thermometer before 1948…
Just like me, you could not find it. That means all data on global T before that time is questionable, to say the least, is it not?
I also challenged you to show me results of the climate around you for the past 40 years or so, and you could not do so either. Like I must have told you before, I checked that there has been no warming here in Pretoria, for the past 40 years, especially in the winter months, when people are burning a lot of fossil fuel and population has been increasing…. In fact I could not find any man made global warming here anywhere, as evident from my results,
my final findings are that earth’s T is determined by solar cycles outside and inside [earth]
the latter being made clear to me when going down 1km into a goldmine here…
Hence, there is no man made global warming. There never was and there never will be. It seems the president elect and the RP have realized this.
Barry, if I were in your shoes, I would pack my bags and get out of this ‘industry’ whilst you still can.
Great, tell that to the IPCC, 30 years isn’t long enough. I agree, but the data is pretty bad before 1978, before the 50’s is even worse.
The point is the entire air mass of the planet dropped an extra degree in temperature, all the while co2 was doing it’s best to prevent it. It shows the temperatures are being controlled by the ocean surface temperature distribution, and the water vapor the winds then blow over the continents to cool. Co2 can not accumulate warming in the atm, unless it can reduce the cooling rate so an excess of heat gets retained overnight. And it doesn’t. And this is an example why, co2 is not holding up air temps.
Basically they should stop making up data for places that have never been measured, that’d be a good start.
A far better start would be for you to learn how they really do it, instead of writing here such pretentious blah blah.
Ten thousands of engineers all around the world use kriging, infilling etc in lots of different disciplines (mining, geology, etc) and there is no problem anywhere.
With ONE exception: climate skeptics lacking any experience concerning that matter, and whose claims about it being worse stuff are inversely proportional to their experience…
The problem is weather is not a linear field across a continent. So why do you think a linear infilling process actually improves the data? And from what 1,000km away in some cases?
And there are other engineering fields where you just don’t make up data.
Henry, your challenges are beside the point. My lack of response is from disinterest in them. There are imperfections in the global temp monitoring systems even to this day, and numerous methods have been employed to make the estimates better – including the satellite records, which are continually ‘adjusted’ as new information comes in. Asking for thermometer calibration certificates is silly.
If you wish to posit 1948 as some sort of cut-off date for solid gold data, go right ahead. This simplifies the issue to banality.
The weather in my local area is tied to global climate like shampoo shares are tied to the stock market. You will find plenty of data for Sydney, Australia if you’re truly interested. If you think my city is a great proxy for global temps, that’s your problem, not mine. (Warming is shown, with a long records from a number of stations, but so what?)
You’ve made it clear that a lack of response indicates inability. Therefore you must be incapable of understanding the methods applied by the skeptic team (Roman M, Jeff Condon) that came up with their own global temperature record.
But unlike you I don’t make such smug assumptions. So I will ask – did you even click the link and take a moment to read their work?
@barry
Since you were too lazy to even look at the figures closely where you live, I did it for you.
[remember, AGW is supposed to affect minimum T, pushing up the means]
As you can see, there has been 0.000K man made global warming in Sydney, Australia.
http://i64.tinypic.com/1zml5eb_th.jpg
I knew this, of course: there has been little or no increase in minima over the whole of the SH.
So, there is no AGW.
And since min temps are actively regulated down to dew point on clear nights, T min is not affected at all by co2, and warming has just followed dew points.
Sorry, Henry, but discussions with you move strangely. You prefer data from 1948, but now display half that period. Your station is unnamed. And you only show minimum temps. One usually looks at mean temps.
Not that data from one city has any meaning WRT global climate, here is the record from observatory Hill, the best-kept, longest running weather station in the city.
http://www.bom.gov.au/tmp/cdio/066062_38_13_2833272021339866521.png
Warming since 1900, or 1948, or the 1970s, if you must. And it’s the min temps that you prefer.
But it doesn’t ell us what is happening globally.
You can’t use a single city as a proxy for global. You can’t use 12. You need more, and fairly evenly distributed around the globe to begin to get a handle on the worldwide average.
These strange challenges you throw out are beside the point. And if I present some data you’ll just say it’s ‘bad’ and the whole exercise is not so much discussion as a lecture.
That’s not interesting.
There, a world of min temp, almost 76 million NCDC surface records.
@micro6500
going by Tmax -Tmin
we see an upward trend of 0.0016K per annum
but, individually, both Tmax and Tmin seems to be declining [negative]?
How can that be? Puzzles me.
That’s the difference between the two trends. Min is going up more that max.
Could work for me
..
I did find the greening of earth does trap some heat,
as would be expected
But it is not so much…
And that’s one of the things I found, min changes both up and down, and it changes different than max, both ways there to (ie both up and down)
there where they chop the trees, minima are dropping
e.g. Tandil (Argentina)
there where they changed a desert into an oasis, minima are increasing, e.g. Las Vegas (USA)
overall though, on average, this type of contribution to global cooling/warming still seems very small and some human activities cancel each other out.
barry
now you say
You prefer data from 1948, but now display half that period. Your station is unnamed. And you only show minimum temps. One usually looks at mean temps.
henry says
are you deliberately trying to confuse issues and be mischievous?\
is this how desperate you AGW guys have become?
here is my original comment
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/12/18/u-s-average-temperature-16f-colder-than-any-time-last-winter-and-winter-hasnt-started-yet/#comment-2378210
and see how that compares with your comment?
station=airport
means T is always very contaminated due to e.g. inner core – and lunar movement, volcanic activity, etc…better is T min or T max depending on what you want to study e.g. AGW or irradiation respectively.
gosh
I remember when I started working in the seventies that we had to monitor T and RH with a wind up recorder and for the week you had to put a paper in so that it could go round….but now what to do when the wind up ended [usually during a weekend] or when the ink went dry? I am sure this is how it pretty much went everywhere in the world before computers????
So you cannot go reliably go back more than 30 or 40 years on the data or else you are just comparing apples with pears.
barry says
You can’t use a single city as a proxy for global. You can’t use 12. You need more, and fairly evenly distributed around the globe to begin to get a handle on the worldwide average.
henry says
must say
the data set that you offer to me are exactly not evenly distributed….
here is the result of 54 stations
sample = 27 Nh and 27 Sh
1) balanced on latitude, to ca. zero
2) checked on K/annum instead of just anomaly [which eliminates the need for a balance on longitude: do you know why?]
3) balanced on 70/30 @sea/inland
Micro:
Do keep up please….
“And since min temps are actively regulated down to dew point on clear nights, T min is not affected at all by co2, and warming has just followed dew points.”
And just why have “dew points” risen?
Considering that WV precipitates out at 100% Abs Hum, and that Abs Hum is regulated by Temp, and that temp is regulated by….?
Clue: its NOT water.
Dew points are rising because rising temp allows them to.
You are taking the symptom to be the cause!
Because of the decadal oscillations redistributing warm surface waters, then the wind blows the water vapor inland. The exact same process El Nino’s use to affect the weather. And in fact, the “Step” was at the end of the El Nino, and altered the effective sensitivity of solar in the 20-~35North lat band.
henryp:
“As you can see, there has been 0.000K man made global warming in Sydney, Australia.”
Oh really?
Not what this says my friend….
http://www.svsunnyspells.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/MeanMin.jpg
And we had agreed that you cannot compare apples with pears?
Ok, Henry, here’s Sydney Airport.
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_display_type=dataGraph&p_stn_num=066037&p_nccObsCode=38&p_month=13
That is clearly rising in temps since the 1970s, and since before (though I understand now that you actually don’t like to use data prior to the 1970s).
Still it indicates precisely nothing about Global temps. Sydney could be warming and the globe cooling, theoretically. This challenge of yours to show data for individual stations is a waste of time.
Now, I’ve jumped through a few hoops for you. How about returning the courtesy and reading up on the global temperature record estimated by two skeptics.
https://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2010/03/24/thermal-hammer/
What do you think of their methods/results?
Clearly your data does agree with my data for Sydney a/p
Sorry
Should be
Your data does NOT agree with my data for Sydney a/p
Cool! Err, cold! Here near Concord NH it’s -7.7°F (-22.0°C). This is the fourth day this month I’ve recorded a subzero temperature, though two came last night (-2.2°F at midnight), and one was a paltry -0.6°F.
Still, it’s impressive, the most I’ve recorded before was three in December 2004, and usually none.
My data goes back to 2003, oh, this is the coldest December temperature we’ve had:
Last December the coldest we got all month was 18.0°F (-7.8°C).
Keep a record of when last in the calendar year having to remove snow from your front door
See how the date will shift in the next two decades coming up.
yepp
global cooling is real
v’
Global Warming must have come to an end since we have rid the nation of liberals.
The person on this tape is describing a massive Proton Event hitting the Earth. In my opinion it could have caused or precipitated the massive cold air moving rapidly south last few days. He says he thinks the heavy proton bombardment was not originated on the Sun – where they usually come from, as there was no strong CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) during that period. Here is the LINK: http://www.BPEarthWatch.Com
From that link (why didn’t you post the URL with the information you wanted people to see?) I went to http://spaceweather.com/ to see if the sun had any spots, it did. It also said
It also linked to this image:
http://spaceweather.com/images2016/18dec16/ch_strip.jpg
The REAL reason for climate change: http://www.crawfordperspectives.com/ClimateKeplerianPlanetDyna.htm
Yea… And at the North pole it may get above freezing. In winter. In the dark.
http://green.trendolizer.com/2016/12/north-pole-hits-melting-point-with-temperatures-40-degrees-above-normal.html
So other than offering more evidence that you are literally dumber than most life forms on the planet in that you keep insisting that GW really does not exist, what is the point of your post?
http://www.dnusbaum.com/AGWdeniers.html
It has absolutely nothing to do with co2.
How’s that?