Guest essay by Sheldon Walker
A new website has been created, which offers a new perspective on global warming.
The website is called “mta-graphs.com”
Temperature series like Gistemp or UAH, are turned into 2 dimensional coloured graphs, called global warming contour maps.
A contour map is basically a colour coded collection of thousands of linear regressions. It is mathematically based, and the colour displayed for each trend is determined by the trends rate of warming, as calculated by a linear regression.
A contour map lets you see how the warming rate has changed at different times, and how it varied for different trend lengths. It makes understanding global warming almost as simple as recognising a colour.
The website currently has 27 temperature series from UAH available for viewing. The selections currently available are:
– Global
– Northern Hemisphere
– Southern Hemisphere
– Northern Polar
– Northern Extra Tropical
– Tropics
– Southern Extra Tropical
– Southern Polar
– Countries – Australia, USA 48, and USA 49
Most selections are available in “Land and Ocean”, “Land only”, and “Ocean only”. Now you can actually see the difference between how much the Land is warming, and how much the Ocean is warming.
Check out the extreme warming in the Northern Polar temperature series.
Check out the lack of warming in the Southern Polar temperature series.
Other temperature series like Gistemp, Hadcrut4, and Berkeley/BEST, will be added soon.
Because contour maps show how the warming rate has changed over time, they are great for showing the recent Slowdown.
Here are some quick instructions for spotting a Slowdown. On any contour map, look at the colour at the top point of the triangular contour map. This color represents a linear regression done over the full date range of the map. This can be considered to be the “average” warming rate for the whole map.
If the top point is coloured yellow, then this means that the average warming rate was between +1.0 and +2.0 degrees Celsius per century.
If the top point is coloured light-orange, then this means that the average warming rate was between +2.0 and +3.0 degrees Celsius per century.
The warming range for each colour is given in the legend of every contour map.
Light-green means a warming rate between 0.0 and +1.0 degrees Celsius per century. So Light-green is a Slowdown compared to yellow or light-orange.
You now have all of the information that you need to find a Slowdown. Find a contour map with yellow or orange at the top point of the triangular contour map. Now look for any green colour on the map. If you can find any green, then you have found a Slowdown. If you need any help, most 8 year olds are very good at this.
If anybody has any questions, then I will be checking the comments below this article.
This is basically a wavelet decomposition, but I’m having a hard time figuring out the basis function. It’s basically a least squares fit. I’m sure there’s an equivalent wavelet for that I just don’t know what it is. Anyone?
It would be good to know the limitations of such a wavelet, so you don’t read something off the graph that’s an artifact of the processing.
BTW the El Nino cycle is extremely clear. There’s no other obvious cycles or statistically meaningful trend in the UAH data. Which fits a lot of other analysis in peer reviewed publications.
See http://paos.colorado.edu/research/wavelets/
Peter
It looks like Sheldon need not bother much with the comment threads. For myself, I’m colorblind, only chart my blood pressure, and the presentation seems clear to me.
Gistemp is now available on the mta-graphs.com website.
Looks like format I promoted in 2011 is finally getting some love. http://mujweb.cz/kasuha/temperatures/all_trends_without_annual_cycle.png
Well, Sheldon, I read all the comments to here. Either the person looking at the graph ‘gets it’ or (s)he doesn’t. It’s a work of pure genius. As designer/builder of commercial kitchens, my first impression was of a gas stove-top burner seen in profile (section?), and the blue ‘gas jets’ caught my attention. And then I started reading the explanation. Bingo! ENSO shows up clear as can be. The sloping right side of the triangle represents the view, over time, of climate geeks’ expectations WRT global temps. With me so far?
Love to see what lies to the left of the above graphic- that at least is probably possible. Seeing to the right of the triangle would be beyond invaluable, even to the vertical present line. The other half of our current Nino- in-decline should show a red leg, though the blue tongue of the current (relatively) rapid drop in temps is probably about to make its appearance.
Most of the above comment stream doesn’t even address the subject. Either you get it or you don’t.
I get it. It is simply snarky crap with zero relevance to real science. We. Get. It.
OK, good!
=====================================================
| |
| Gistemp is now available on the mta-graphs.com website. |
| |
=====================================================