For those that have an interest, here are the 18Z model runs for track positions, plotted on Google Earth. Data from National Hurricane Center. Click image for a full size view (Update, versions with satellite image added).
Here is a zoom of the Florida coast and southeast US coast, click for large images.
Link to .kmz file is here if you want to look at it in Google Earth yourself.
Do a right click and “save as”, complete download, double click it and it will open Google Earth. See the model output in “temporary places” folder in the left sidebar pane. Loads of data available that you can enable and disable with checkboxes.
Circulation in the stratosphere shows the blockade of the Atlantic.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t30_nh_f00.png
It is very probable route of Matthew.
http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2016/650x366_10050120_hd25.jpg
Read the latest official NHC 5:00AM EST discussion for Oct. 5, 2016. Again, not one word about actual surface level wind speeds. Surely by now NHC has real live data showing actual recorded surface wind speeds which it will not make public. It relies on conclusory estimates from models. This doesn’t seem to make sense. Why not use the best data available to report storm intensity to the public?
Not sure where they have obtained this but the Daily Mail in the UK has put the following on-line.
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/10/05/06/391D4C3800000578-3822012-The_Weather_Channel_reported_that_the_hurricane_force_winds_exte-a-36_1475644306605.jpg
Several models now sending Michael up the coast then back in a loop to the Bahamas.
The strange thing I’ve noticed, and I live near the Space center, is the models move west each night and east during the day. If anyone has an answer for that I’d love to hear it.