Guest essay by Eric Worrall
A group of biologists have demanded more resources for data collection, so they can fill in the missing pieces of biodiversity models which forecast ecological catastrophe.
Forecasting climate change’s effects on biodiversity hindered by lack of data
WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. – An international group of biologists is calling for data collection on a global scale to improve forecasts of how climate change affects animals and plants.
Accurate model predictions can greatly aid efforts to protect biodiversity from disturbances such as climate change and urban sprawl by helping scientists and decision-makers better understand, anticipate and respond to threats that imperil species and ecosystems.
In a paper published in Science on Thursday (Sept. 8), biologists cite a critical lack of data on key biological mechanisms – such as how animals and plants spread during their lifetime and how they evolve in response to changes in the environment – as the main obstacle to improving models’ ability to forecast species’ response to climate change.
“This paper is a call to arms,” said Patrick Zollner, article co-author and Purdue associate professor of wildlife science. “The world is in dire circumstances. We’re losing a lot of species, and we’re largely unaware why. How do we need to rethink the kind of data we’re collecting so we can take advantage of modern modeling tools to understand the outcomes of climate change for ecological systems? This could help us forestall losing wildlife that we later deeply regret.”
…
The abstract of the paper;
New biological models are incorporating the realistic processes underlying biological responses to climate change and other human-caused disturbances. However, these more realistic models require detailed information, which is lacking for most species on Earth. Current monitoring efforts mainly document changes in biodiversity, rather than collecting the mechanistic data needed to predict future changes. We describe and prioritize the biological information needed to inform more realistic projections of species’ responses to climate change. We also highlight how trait-based approaches and adaptive modeling can leverage sparse data to make broader predictions. We outline a global effort to collect the data necessary to better understand, anticipate, and reduce the damaging effects of climate change on biodiversity.
Read more: http://science.sciencemag.org/content/353/6304/aad8466
On one hand it is refreshing to see a group of scientists admit their climate projections are incomplete. But it is also sad that said scientists seem to feel compelled to couch a request for more funds in such apocalyptic terms.
Who knows – perhaps this is what you have to do these days, to attract the attention of climate obsessed science funding panels.
Update (EW) – fixed a typo
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
More propaganda from the alarmists right here https://portals.iucn.org/library/sites/library/files/documents/2016-046_0.pdf
Let me save them some time and taxpayers some money .
1 CO2 up = more plant growth
2 more plant growth = more animals
Yes, but that only applies to carbon based lifeforms.
These “people” are based on another element; sulfur.
But they are doing it for the children,
‘sulfur the little children’
Perhaps this would be a really good place to start NOT spending money we don’t have and do what little we can to reduce the deficit and then the National Debt. Ya THINK?
That’
s exact;y my thought, NWs. If it is such a concern to them, why do they not spend their own money rather than always expecting the poor old taxpayer to shell out to finance their unsubstantiated dreams / nightmares?
What would be the point if we have no clear idea of how many primary industries need to be adjusted?
They could always manufacture fantasy data to support a fantasy meme.
RockyRoad, that’s what they want “modern modeling tools” for.
“An international group of biologists…”
You must send us money so we can explain to you why you must redistribute to us more money.
“This paper is a call to arms”. “A call to arms” is scientific jargon for more funding.
They need to use their spellchecker better with “a call to alms”
“Alms” is spelled correctly. To date, no program exists to determine if the author typed the correctly spelled word they meant to type or a different one.
To this may I say politely – “piss off”….
Biologists…no nothing about science.
We no (sic) plenty about science.
Geeze.. can’t even troll a snark language misuse. Slow night….
You did that on purpose?
It is a slow night after a long weekend in the USA.
I myself am checking in between Labor Day and the start of bow-hunting deer season.
With current funding: “We’re all gonna die!”
With additional funding: “We’re all gonna die TWICE!”
Title of the next Bond movie?
Exactly. They have already concluded that ‘the world is in dire circumstances.’ No further study needed; additional study will only reveal the same conclusion.
Are we sure that it is the world that is in dire circumstances or is it just the little bit of it occupied by biologists not getting their share of the “alms”, as observa very neatly observes above?
Could be. Never has been much money in biology.
“They have already concluded that ‘the world is in dire circumstances.’ No further study needed; additional study will only reveal the same conclusion.”
I don’t think so, Gamecock, rather it will be “Worse than they thought.”
This is the most ridiculous bovine scatology. The temperature varies over a day by several degrees if not tens of degrees. Over the seasons it varies by several tens of degrees. The entire cumulative CAGW is under 1 degree! These pseudo-scientists are demanding funding for an essentially nonexistant and almost invisible “threat” !
Only lawyers and theologians and these clowns, argue over how many angels dance on the head of a pin.
We have written history from the Roman Climate optimum, the Medieval Warm period, and the Little Ice Age, both for Europe and China. We know the effect of the climate on the civilization during those periods.
For temperature, we have many proxies.
When we look at the temperature variation over the last two thousand years, many of the proxies show a variation of only a couple of degrees. Looking at all the proxies, it seems likely to me that the global average temperature did indeed vary by only a couple of degrees. Here’s an instructive story on co2science.
Remember that 70% of the globe is covered by ocean. quote Its surface temperature doesn’t change much and that has a big effect on the average.
In the co2science story, cited above, note the graph for Longyearbyen. The winter surface air temperature varys by more than ten degrees for the same period that the sea surface temperature varied by only a couple of degrees.
A small change in the global average temperature can have big effects on civilization.
“We’re losing a lot of species.” Which ones have we lost?
Major Meteor September 8, 2016 at 5:21 pm
“We’re losing a lot of species.” Which ones have we lost?
Wrong question Major, instead “which species is next” Then you and I take a life insurance policy out on it.
michael
In all fairness to these data-deprived biologists, we have lost more than 90% of the species that ever existed on Earth.
https://youtu.be/7W33HRc1A6c
Precisely Meteor..
In that case, how in blazes do they know they’re losing them?
Back in the 80s, I participated in a high school debate, taking the “we’re really ok” side of the “Is the earth doomed?” debate.
We had been spoon fed the apocalypse, from having to read “Entropy” and “The Fate of the Earth”, to watching scary dramas about nuclear war. You get the picture.
I asked my opponents how many species there actually WERE. After a few widely differing numbers, differing in the millions, I just said that “if we can’t trust you tell us how many critters we HAVE, how can you possibly count how many are MISSING”.
I got a D, which was enough to start my turn from True Believer, to Question Everythinger.
Here’s a “A” for logic and bravery.
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/discussion/post/2149104?currentPage=5
Late comers to the gravy train. But I think the gravy train has passed them by. Trump’s numbers are looking better and better.
Eugene WR Gallun
http://www.gravytraindog.com/sites/gravytraindog/files/banner_images/742cafb4-69c8-41cc-a871-7c45b8b07741.png
An international group of biologists…are aware that climate change is the largest driver of evolution
..more new species are being discovered than are going extinct
But then that’s because they play fast and loose with what a species is.
That is the truth! Check into the lunacy regarding bios who have ‘discovered’ the Algonquin wolf and the Red wolf. These are just made-up species to get some wolves on the endangered species list. They are all just gray wolves (that used to be called timber wolves) and wolves are in NO danger of extiction; indeed, their populations are robust and increasing.
Exactly so.
There seems to be a lot of that going around.
The red wolf was never more than a phenotypic variation, of which there are several stable ones in Canis lupus spp. The Algonquin wolf is a geographically limited population, which has been studied to death, and hemmed in by humans for a century. Most “disappearing species” right now are sub-specific variants, which were always labile to begin with. Some of those haven’t disappeared, they just been genetically re-absorbed back into the dominant phenotype. Real biologists don’t real care how many species there are (that’s a taxonomic “problem”). All species wax and wane with time. It’s the process, the adaptation and adaptibility that is of real interest. Biodiversity is a continuum process. Too many “social” biologists are interested only in “fixing” a diverse population to a point in time – creating a museum of what existed for an infinitesimally small moment in time.
One of the interesting controversy to arise soon in Ontario, is the increasing predominance of ,i>Canis latrans spp., the coyote. Enough time has passed that most people don’t realize the coyote is an invasive species in Ontario. But it’s ok if it eats your dog, since it’s not something that grows in your garden…
Not to mention the Dingo, which is just an Australian native dog. Freely interbreeds with domestic dogs, therefore not a new species at all.
The dingo is probably a subspecies of Canis domesticus; Canis domesticus whatsonthebarbiecobber – I believe.
Auto
Sorry US biologists, but didn’t you hear that Obama sent $1.3Billion in cash to his Ayatollah buddy in Iran. You know, that guy who mostly sells oil, chants Death to the USA, and is working on ICBM and small nuke to carry out that promise.
The till’s empty. $20Trillion debt will be he Legacy of the Worst President Ever that most of you support. And whatever is left to spend, we’re gonna have to spend on military outlays for ballistic missile missile defense in the coming decade to try to stop Iran from turning Washington DC and NYC into ash.
That $1.3 Billion is now up to over 33 Billion: http://freebeacon.com/national-security/iran-may-received-much-33-6-billion-cash-gold-payments-u-s/
Joel O’Bryanwrote in part:
It won’t cost as much as you think, Joel. Of course we have to defend NYC. It would be a national tragedy if we lost the home of world class hotdogs, pizza, corned beef, and pastrami sandwiches. And of course the New York area has a rich sports tradition to preserve.
OTOH, nobody would miss Washington DC and it would likely put a damper on government spending, so let’s save half the money and let DC take its chances.
“Demanded”. You are such a troll Eric. Lol.
Oops, I’ve just been trolled.
Its all just so ridiculous 🙂
I need more money not to forecast climate catastrophe. Exxon-Mobil are you listening?
Tom Trevor,
Officially … perhaps not:
Our position on climate change
We have the same concerns as people everywhere – and that is how to provide the world with the energy it needs while reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
The risk of climate change is clear and the risk warrants action. Increasing carbon emissions in the atmosphere are having a warming effect. There is a broad scientific and policy consensus that action must be taken to further quantify and assess the risks.
ExxonMobil is taking action by reducing greenhouse gas emissions in its operations, helping consumers reduce their emissions, supporting research that leads to technology breakthroughs and participating in constructive dialogue on policy options.
Addressing climate change, providing economic opportunity and lifting billions out of poverty are complex and interrelated issues requiring complex solutions. There is a consensus that comprehensive strategies are needed to respond to these risks.
Some of the wording is … interesting. But I think funding to better understand extinction mechanisms falls broadly under the category of “action must be taken to further quantify and assess the risks”.
It’s not so terribly different from what they were saying internally back in the 1980s:
I have looked over the draft of the EED reply to the request from O’Loughlin. The only real problem I have is with the second clause of the last sentence in the first paragraph: “but changes of a magnitude well short of catastrophic…” I think that this statement may be too reassuring. Whereas I can agree with the statement that our best guess is that observable effects in the year 2030 are likely to be “well short of catastrophic”, it is distinctly possible that the CPD scenario will later produce effects which will indeed be catastrophic (at least for a substantial fraction of the earth’s population). This is because the global ecosystem in 2030 might still be in a transient, headed for much more significant effects after time lags perhaps on the order of decades. If this is indeed the case, it is very likely that we will unambiguously recognize the threat by the year 2000 because of advances in climate modeling and the beginning of real experimental confirmation of the CO2 effect. The effects of such a recognition on subsequent fossil fuel combustion are unpredictable, but one can say that predictions base only on our knowledge of availability and economics become hazardous.
I would feel more comfortable if the first paragraph concluded with a statement to the effect that the future developments in global data gathering and analysis, along with advances in climate modeling, may provide strong evidence for a delayed CO2 effect of a truly substantial magnitude, a possibility which increases the uncertainty surrounding the post-2000 CPD scenario.
(signed) Roger W. Cohen
This describes CAGW to a T:
“Hindered by lack of data” consistent with the hypothesis.
So true.
There is enough data to reject the GC models with high confidence. There is enough data to have confidence in rejecting an ECS > 2 K.
Thus sufficient evidence exists regarding the continued claim of the C in CAGW as pure “bullshit.”
But …. but …. I thought that the sience was settled and we didn’t need any more research.
I wish they would make their minds up.
Turn anything into CAGW effect and then money. But these guys are soooo greedy that 50 billion isn’t enough. OMG where have liberals minds gone??!
BTW, Purdue may no longer on the list for my children to attend, even with a full ride. There are a lot of us that think like this. Clearly too far left and that is saying something for colleges/Universities.
It would be nice if a group of international experts in mining asked for buckets of money to better survey the globe for regions where our future resources will be found.
Do you want to pay big money to find how fuzzy creatures might be moving around, or do you want to pay similar money to continue to have cars, beer cans, electricity generators and all that stuff from mining that we almost take for granted?
Priorities screwed up?
But miners are there to give money to governments, not to suck it out of taxpayers without accountability.
Geoff
Dingbats biologist should study evolution of bats and bees and birds when they have all been killed by wind mills and solar panels.
““This paper is a call to arms,” said Patrick Zollner, article co-author and Purdue associate professor of wildlife science. “The world is in dire circumstances. We’re losing a lot of species, and we’re largely unaware why.”
Windmills are one reason we are losing wildlife, caused by a failed CAGW theory, and a lack of intelligence on the part of our leaders.
Exactly. Anyone else been to The Mojave lately? Solar and wind is killing all that housing has left undestroyed.
I have to wonder. Is this greedy biologists trying to insert themselves into the climate science funding gravy train? Or is this biologists so starved of money for legitimate research that the feel they have to resort to this?
Yes primarily, and also yes. It’s what practically all scientific fields are doing now to produce make-busy and useless papers that almost nobody reads to keep their jobs.
“Is this greedy biologists trying to insert themselves into the climate science funding gravy train? Or is this biologists so starved of money for legitimate research that the feel they have to resort to this?”
It’s the former. The tell is that they are asking for more money so that they can develop the inputs to computer models, while pretending that the computer is going to be able to tell them something that they can’t learn from the data itself. This is the great con of the climate doomsayers. If you don’t know how the internals of a system operate, you don;t know enough to program a computer to simulate how the internals of that system operate.
From a funding perspective, biology has always been a tough sell, no matter how skilled and professional the biologist. We used to experience this when out in the field doing field work that required assistance from the community in some form. We would regularly hold public info sessions to explain what we we doing, why we were doing it, what it was based on etc. Invariably we had several people, farmers, hunters who wouldn’t accept the research, because they “knew better”, even though they really didn’t. People think they understand the mechanisms of the biological world, because they are active animals in it. Some very much do, but many, most, really don’t have a clue.
More money, live better. That works especially well when it’s not your own.
Incredibly easy way to make a lot of money off the tax payer. University Science is now a scam. A total scam.
If they can clearly conclude biogeddon base on no competent data and no biodiversity assay of the world at all, why do they need money? With no money and no data they have already figured it out.