Guest essay by David Archibald
The warning signs have been there for some time now – persistent failures of the wheat crop in Norway for example. The North Atlantic is cooling. The cooling trend was evident at the time of an expedition to investigate this phenonemon three years ago. The rate of cooling has now steepened up since then based on the latest data collated by Professor Humlum of the University of Oslo. From that data set, this graph shows the heat loss since 2004 for the top 700 metres of the water column:
Figure 1: Monthly heat content anomaly in the uppermost 700 metres of the North Atlantic
As Figure 1 show, North Atlantic heat content peaked in 2004. The decline since the peak has been steeper than the rise. What would be the reason for 2004 being the peak year? Part of the answer may be that 2004 was the second peak of Solar Cycle 23 with a big increase in the proton flux. Another part of the answer may be that there was a big fall in the Ap Index in 2005 down to solar minimum-like levels followed, a couple of years later, by a discontinuity as the level fell through the floor of the established minimum level of activity. That is shown in this graph:
Figure 2: Ap Index 1932 – 2016
We might not care too much about the animals that live in the North Atlantic water column but the temperature of the surface is the main control on the climate of Europe. So what has that been doing?
Figure 3: Time series depth-temperature diagram along 59 N across the North Atlantic Current from 30° W to 0°W.
As Figure 3 from Professor Humlum’s work shows, summer heating is penetrating to half the depth it used to 10 years ago and in winter earlier this year sub-8°C water was at the surface for the first time in more than ten years. That cooling trend is quantified in the following graph:
Figure 4: Average temperature along 59° N, 30°-0°W, 0-800m depth
This is data from the main part of the North Atlantic Current. The average temperature has fallen 1.0°C from 2006 to 2016. That is a trend of 1.0°C per decade but with 60% of the cooling in the last two years. Europe’s climate has responded with snow down to 2,000 metres in August in Germany this year. And how much lower can the North Atlantic temperature go? The lowest point on Figure 1 was in 1973 during the 1970s cooling period and corresponds to a fall of a further 1.5°C. At the decadal trend since 2016, we would get there in 2031. At the trend of the last two years, we would get there in 2021. That is supported by what is happening to solar activity. Over those last two years the F10.7 flux has been in a steep downtrend:
Figure 5: F10.7 Flux 2014 – 2016
Figure 5 shows that the F10.7 flux is in a steep, orderly downtrend that will take it to the immutable floor of 64 about three years before solar minimum is due. After that comes Solar Cycle 25. Back in 2003, esteemed solar physicists Ken Schatten and Kent Tobiska warned that:
“The surprising result of these long-range predictions is a rapid decline in solar activity, starting with cycle #24. If this trend continues, we may see the Sun heading towards a “Maunder” type of solar activity minimum – an extensive period of reduced levels of solar activity.”
They got the decline of Solar Cycle 24 right and the North Atlantic cooled in response. If they get the “Maunder” part of their prediction correct too, then it will be some years before North Atlantic cooling bottoms out.
David Archibald is the author of Twilight of Abundance (Regnery).
If this trend continues, we may see the Sun heading towards a “Maunder” type of solar activity minimum
The weasel words ‘if’ and ‘may’ stand out. As far as cycle 25 is concerned, the preliminary data shows that the cycle will not be smaller than cycle 24, and likely even a bit stronger as the solar polar fields are still building.
Globally there is no evidence of cooling:
https://news.slashdot.org/story/16/08/20/166208/every-month-this-year-has-been-the-hottest-in-recorded-history
Based upon one data set, GISS, which A) does not cover the entire globe for anything approaching completeness since 1880 (As is claimed in your article’s source) and B) does not agree with other data sets.
Exactly the same can be said about the data from the Northern Atlantic…
Yes, except no one claimed it was complete since the 1880s, and it was looking at a short term trend of the last decade or so of the satellite era.
Which means that it is too short to qualify as a climate record.
lsvagaard~ But the North Atlantic does not cover the entire world and he didn’t claim it did. The GISS data set however IS being claimed to cover the entire world according to Arsivo (above).
ClimateOtter, Not me. lsvaalgard claimed that there was no global evidence of cooling and then posted a slashdot link as his backup.The following quote is from a source story from the Slashdot link posted by lsvaalgard (http://www.citylab.com/weather/2016/07/climate-change-record-heat-global-warming/492131/) which reads; “That’s the longest streak of record-busting temperatures in observations dating back to 1880.”
lsvaalgard: And he didn’t claim that it was a climate record, just showing what the cooling of the North Atlantic means to Europe’s weather, which if it lasts as long as is suspected that it will lead to a colder climate for Europe.
Despite your “weather” vs “climate” snobbery, climate is simply a long term average of weather, which means that, for any predictions to work, it needs to start with weather. It cannot work the other way because averaging removes information you need to predict the weather.
As such, this is a prediction based on several principles the author couples together. The coupling seems logical, and it could be a set of parameters that moves the prediction from weather and into climate if it lasts long enough. Should the prediction comes to pass, it will be more useful than the climate models’ predictions for the European continent. If it doesn’t, it’s one more corpse for the wastebin of science.
http://berkeleyearth.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Trend_Map_since_1970.png
http://berkeleyearth.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Trend_Map_since_1900.png
The claim it isn’t cooling is dumb and untrue.
Further – this represents a loss of about 4 mm of steric sea level.
Steve Mosher:
Cute charts. So, tell me, how extensive was the Pacific temperature recording network in 1900? Or are these model infilling? Knowing your work, I’ll guess the latter. On that same vein, how extensive was the arctic temperature recording network in 1970? I’ll guess more model infilling.
As you well know, from your professional work, infilling has issues in areas where the temperature network is good. The arctic and antarctic infilling, where “the most warming as occurred” is so lacking in extensive temperature data that these charts are jokes.
Note that your charts are poorly labelled. “Since 1900” has had less warming than “Since 1970”. Odd how 117 years warms less than the final period of 47 years in that same 117 year span.
I’ll also note that your obviously selected start date of “1970” pushes the current (or perhaps “ending”) heat cycle squarely into the previous cooling cycle. No doubt that wouldn’t exacerbate any warming trends, would it?
lsvalgaard August 21, 2016 at 9:46 am
Which means that it is too short to qualify as a climate record.
And a century is? You beg the question with such a statement. The concept of climate implicitly presumes some sort of equilibrium in weather over some span of time. That condition is not present at any time scale in geological history, nor, as you point out, in short term cultural data. You need a sounder definitional basis before any theory of climate is going to look any better than the current food fight.
Once we [eventually] get a good theory of climate, the proper time scale(s) will be determined by the theory. An example of this is the time scale for the so-called Kp index of geomagnetic activity. Initially, it was [rather arbitrarily] set at three hours [giving a compact characterization of the activity]. Today we know that three hours is the time it takes the solar wind to flow past the magnetospheric tail of the Earth, so is a physically meaningful length of time.
@Steven Mosher, re: August 21, 2016 at 12:23 pm
The majority of that arctic warming for the years 1970-Present you present–as Joe Bastardi has noted during his recent Saturday summaries–has occurred during the arctic winters (and Bastardi includes warmth during the Antarctica winters as well, which is happening right now). Regular schmoes can see it for themselves graphically by clicking through the years you cite at the government-run Danish site: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
So I and the rest of humanity are supposed to get all meshugenah because the arctic temps in the winter went from -35C to -29C? That’s the global warming everyone has their panties in a knot over? Because it sure as Hades hasn’t occurred during the summer months, according to the Danish record since 1958.
if you ask me, Berkeley Earth should be more forthcoming amd straighforward with their info.
Sorry for the typing typos. I know how to spell.
Arsivo, I think you are misreading the chart. The two charts aren’t aggregate temperature increases since 1900/1970, they are annualized trends.
However, the prediction that we will have at least a 1970s type AMO minimum is not totally without foundation. The bottom of the AMO cycle appears to be synced with the periods of very low solar magnetic activity. The prediction has been made, now we get to test it. The lower enthalpy of the upper ocean, however, violates the prediction that the earth will retain more enthalpy due to the insulating effect of CO2. I predict it will be cooler in 2020 and cold in 2030. I now await the results of my predictions to see if my hypothesis is wrong. Phase lag in energy storage systems is a well known phenomena.
..A closed mind that is as brilliant as Isvalgaard’s is such a waste…..
““Your assumptions are your windows on the world. Scrub them off every once in a while, or the light won’t come in.”
― Isaac Asimov
If your predictions don’t come true, your hypothesis will be wrong. But if they do, that will tell very little about your hypothesis. It will just not be enough to falsify it. Just saying.
C’mon, Leif. What would be left of climate science if we banned weasel words. Mark Twain said it best:
One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.
Aptly describes the present article. Archibald is a true alarmist.
It’s so fun to hear Dr. Svalgaard rail about Archibald, whose conjectures are purely that, but remain so silent about the AGW, the UN cudgel for global governance.
I wish I could totally respect Dr. Svalgaard.
Comments on AGW belong in a post about AGW and should not pollute every post regardless of its topic.
Right. Because AGW so inconsequential.
Eric Barnes said:
“It’s so fun to hear Dr. Svalgaard rail about Archibald, whose conjectures are purely that, but remain so silent about the AGW, the UN cudgel for global governance.
I wish I could totally respect Dr. Svalgaard.”
and
“Right. Because AGW so inconsequential.”
Whataboutism at its finest. From wikipedia:
“Whataboutism is a term describing a propaganda technique used by the Soviet Union in its dealings with the Western world during the Cold War. When criticisms were leveled at the Soviet Union, the response would be “What about…” followed by the naming of an event in the Western world.[1][2] It represents a case of tu quoque or the appeal to hypocrisy,[3] a logical fallacy which attempts to discredit the opponent’s position by asserting the opponent’s failure to act consistently in accordance with that position, without directly refuting or disproving the opponent’s initial argument.”
Eric Barnes…..spot on. I couldn’t agree more. I wonder what it feels like to be a brilliant “sell out”, assuming he is. Maybe he isn’t! My opinion, but Isvalgaard seems to ride the margin of respectability in both camps. In military terms…I wouldn’t go into battle with him because I just wouldn’t be sure if he would have my back or frag me at the first opportunity! I do respect that he at least lays out measurable predictions. At some point we may come to realize he is the biggest political genius in the climate business. Switzerland could learn a thing or two from his brand of neutrality….or not! Remember “Pat” from SNL? Oh well…forget about it. Keep up the good work Dr. Isvalgaard…I think! : )
Has Dr. Svalgaard never heard of el nino? (this sounds a lot like a comment from a “weasel warmist”)…
or the cooling effects of la nina?
EXACTAMUNDO !!! Skeptics made the same dopey sort of argument when we saw global temps dip back in ’08 (that global warming was over). You’re not going to find any “evidence of cooling” in the midst of an el nino…
Heh, except in the ocean.
============
I saved a copy of your post Mr lsvalgaard, we will see in time if you are right.
BTW why did you change all past solar records in July 2015?
Here is why: http://www.leif.org/research/Revisiting-the-Sunspot-Number.pdf
a much shorter version: http://www.leif.org/research/Revision-of-the-Sunspot-Number.pdf
and http://www.leif.org/research/Recalibrating-the-Sunspot-Number-CEAB.pdf
The short answer: because the Version 1 of the sunspot number has been found to be flawed in several respects. Flawed data should be corrected. Don’t you think so?
Not necessary to discard the 400-yr long old record when the flaws can be found and corrected.
Leif, thank you for posting this. Very thorough!
Forrest Gardener said:
“lsvalgaard says that flawed data should be corrected. I say it should be discarded.”
I don’t understand how people get themselves tied in such knots over this. Why on earth would you discard data rather than finding ways to allow for the flaws in the way things were measured?
As Willis posted further down in this discussion:
“FOR EXAMPLE: Suppose I took temperatures for ten years using several instruments, and later I found out that one of the mercury thermometers used for two years was ruled incorrectly at the factory and read one degree low.
QUESTIONS:
1. Should we use the raw data as it sits? or …
2. Should we throw out the ten years work because of the problem? or …
3. Should we simply add one degree to the incorrect readings and move on?”
So, what would you do? What are the practical implications of your quibbling over the definition of data in this situation?
What’s the difference between corrected data and bogus data?
You are assuming that you have found and properly corrected the flaws.
Your proof is that the new data matches what you think it should be.
You are assuming that you have found and properly corrected the flaws
If you find a penny on the ground, you do not assume that you found it. You actually did find it.
Same thing with the sunspot record flaws. They were found by noticing differences between observers, by actual statements that the counting method has changed, by comparisons with other solar data [e.g. the EUV flux], etc.
You clearly did not take the trouble to even read our papers on the corrections:
http://www.leif.org/research/Revisiting-the-Sunspot-Number.pdf
http://www.leif.org/research/Reconstruction-of-Group-Number-1610-2015.pdf
“We have reconstructed the sunspot group count, not by comparisons with other reconstructions and correcting those where they were deemed to be deficient, but by a reassessment of original sources. The resulting series is a pure solar index and does not rely on input from other proxies, e.g. radionuclides, auroral sightings, or geomagnetic records. “Backboning” the data sets, our chosen method, provides substance and rigidity by using long-time observers as a stiffness character. Solar activity, as defined by the Group Number, appears to reach and sustain for extended intervals of time the same level in each of the last three centuries since 1700 and the past several decades do not seem to have been exceptionally active, contrary to what is often claimed”.
Really bad analogy.
You did not find a penny, that is a physical object that you can pick up, hold in your hand and show to your friends.
These flaws are not physical things, in many cases they are little more than differences of opinion regarding how things should have been done.
That goes double for your “fixes” to these “flaws”.
An observer makes a drawing or a photograph of what he sees. These are very physical things and not just ‘opinions’, but measurements [i.e. data] of real things. Obviously you have still not read the papers I referred you to. Until you do that, your comments are void of meaning.
Leif said:
“You clearly did not take the trouble to even read our papers on the corrections:”
They won’t. This isn’t a scientific issue. It’s ideological. You can’t win this by reason.
In reply to Leif’s comment that the solar cycle 24 is not unusual and even if the solar cycle did abruptly change to a special mode, the planet would not cool.
The great thing about scientific discussions as opposed to political discussions is that from time to time observations can and do over turn fundamental scientific beliefs.
The “Bond Super Solar Minimum”
Observations support the assertion that solar cycle 24 is peculiar (See paper, “The Peculiar Solar Cycle 24) that lists all of the peculiar sudden changes that occurred prior to and during solar cycle 24). Solar observations (shrinking sunspots for example, the start of spotless days years before the solar minimum) support the assertion that solar cycle is entering into a ‘special state’.
Based correlation in paleo record (both hemispheres, same periodicity, cosmogenic isotope changes correlate with cyclic temperature changes, sometimes abrupt temperature changes) the planet will now significantly cool in response to the abrupt change in the solar cycle and abatement of coronal hole caused solar wind bursts.
As I have stated, there are more than 200 astronomical and solar system anomalies and paradoxes that support the assertion that the sun is significantly different than the standard model.
http://iopscience.iop.org/1742-6596/440/1/012001/pdf/1742-6596_440_1_012001.pdf
http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/seminars/spring2006/Mar1/Bond%20et%20al%202001.pdf
http://cc.oulu.fi/~usoskin/personal/Miyahara_AG06.pdf
Observations support the assertion that solar cycle 24 is peculiar
There are [funding and ‘novelty’] reasons for people making such a wrong claim. SC24 observationally is clearly just like any other low-activity cycle [e.g. SC14, or SC12, or SC5], even to the point where was possible to predict its size correctly. SC25 already looks to be no lower than SC24, and likely a bit stronger.
Post 2005 the sun has entered an inactive mode therefore any predictions made based on solar activity from 1850-2005 when the sun was in an active mode are more or less worthless.
Disclaimer — i am not qualified to comment on any of this but enjoy reading it immensely — and can pick up a tidbit of info here and there.
I would like to say something about “correction of data” which I think is true. That is where “bias” slips in. Don’t correct data unless you give a full and complete explanation for each correction. Let us not go the Gavin Schmidt route. Man may measure all things but man is not the measure of all things.
You may help the data speak, just don’t put words in its mouth.
Eugene WR Gallun
Leif – what do you think of these informations?
http://notrickszone.com/2016/08/20/austrian-solar-charts-expose-small-sensation-fractures-co2-warming-theory/#sthash.oMC3eQt3.dpbs
Eugene,
If everyone here refrained from commenting on topics about which they weren’t qualified to comment, there would be at least 50% fewer comments.
There may be some topics upon which no one is qualified to comment.
Consider the specific heat difference between ice crystals and atmospheric moisture. There’s a definable amount of energy we will literally never see changing because we don’t bother to look at it.
“there is no evidence of cooling”……..That link is referencing fraudulent NASA/NOAA data. How fraudulent? Among other things it’s claiming this July in America was hotter than the infamous “dust bowl” years in the mid 1930s. That’s ludicrous and their own data proves it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gh-DNNIUjKU&feature=youtu.be&t=806
As you state “If this trend continues, we may see the Sun heading towards a “Maunder” type of solar activity minimum” contains the well known weasel words “if” and “may”.
Perhaps I might be permitted to rewrite the quotation: “any continuation of this trend will see the sun heading towards a “Maunder” type minimum.”
Exact;y the same meaning, no weasel words.
Oops, exactLy.
It’s still a conditional statement.
Is any conditional statement an example of weasel words?
I thought weasel words had to be words or statements that were intentionally ambiguous or misleading — like many of the statements typically appearing in Mr. Mosher’s comments.
I got on to say something along these lines.
I am a skeptic…I am in no way worried about global warming. But at the same time, this is a change in the atlantic that was more or less expected. I’m not going to say it is or isn’t tied to solar influences. But I will say that no dataset shows the kind of cooling one would expect if there were substantial global cooling. If anything it looks like it’s simply covering up the slow, harmless, overall rise in temperatures that’s been going on for over a hundred years.
It will have consequences, especially for europe…much as its warming peak coincided with heat waves. And I must say…having studied what is known from documented changes in climate…I do indeed concern myself more with the idea that there might be some global cooling. I don’t see it as a substantial issue or highly likely that there will be some significant cooling. I just know that between the two, cooling is a far greater threat…especially since the little ice age does stand out in so many ways that it makes me concerned that perhaps that temperature threshold is at the edge of the long slide into a new glacial period.
And once again, LET’S BE HONEST PEOPLE! There is no dataset showing some kind of meaningful cooling globally. I expect this would be something that could help to cause a dip in global temperatures…but we really do have to wait and see.
“The weasel words ‘if’ and ‘may’ stand out”.
Indeed they do.
They are regularly used by climate “scientists” when talking up their latest doom-laden model results.
“Globally there is no evidence of cooling:…..
….every-month-this-year-has-been-the-hottest-in-recorded-history”
Really…
I would have thought at your age you would have been able to recognise the difference between weather and climate, and be aware of precisely what the significance of a trend of seven and a half months is in the great scheme of things.
That is of course entirely leaving aside the debate over the relative reliability of the various temperature databases, there are those who would hesitate to bet their reputation for scientific impartiality on the accuracy of the NOAA version as opposed to the satellite versions.
what the significance of a trend of seven and a half months is in the great scheme of things.
?w=720
Enough said.
so 7 1/2 months can be significant? Excellent. let’s see what the next 8 months bring.
PA, he is talking about the NORTH ATLANTIC, not the worlds oceans.
As some people in Norway have already pointed out. There has been no cooling there and no failure of the wheat crop…
Here is a link for Norway wheat and it depends purely on the definition of failure. I would not describe this as a total failure but it certainly does not look too good to me. Dropping from a high of 450 down to 250 is nearly a 50% reduction. not a total failure but enough to cause shortages to occur
http://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?country=no&commodity=wheat&graph=production
Ah, Dr Svalgaard. The words ‘if’ and ‘may’ come from Dr Schatten’s paper. You are complaining about good, sensible, almost saintly Dr Schatten.
The complaint is about you not heeding the uncertainty those words imply.
“…The weasel words ‘if’ and ‘may’ stand out…”
Dr. Svalgaard-San: Have you ever used these words, ‘if’ and ‘may,’ in papers? What, never?
Of course, lots of times. They convey a sense of uncertainty which is proper. The problem begins when the ‘if’ and ‘may’s are treated as ‘when’ and ‘must’.
The problem begins when the ‘if’ and ‘may’s are treated as ‘when’ and ‘must’.
Dr. Svalgaard: Was that actually the case in this case, in your professional opinion?
Did you detect an unstated implication that it was the case, or formulate the impression that it was the case based on your intuition, or because you feel that you know David Archibald well enough to be able to judge this was his intention?
Or are there any clear overt signs that David actually treated “if” and “may” as meaning “when” and “must”?
Leif,
We all know you don’t have much time for Archibald but you shouldn’t let your emotions get the better of you. To suggest as a counter argument that GISS provides credible temp data is either devious or naïve in the extreme and doesn’t do much for your own credibility.
Even a bit stronger is still way weaker than cycles 22 and 23.
Of course the trend will continue, lower output is baked in the Solar cake thru cycle 25 completing long after you’ve passed.
Actually, I hope that cycle 25 is weaker than Sunspot cycle 24. Let’s see the “skeptics” explain the continued warming if it is.
Actually, I hope that cycle 25 does turn out to be smaller than cycle 24.
I’d love to see the “skeptics” squirm to explain the continued warming.
Bah, you know TSI hasn’t much variability.
==========
cycle 25 will be more or less equal to cycle 23
as this is a result of my analysis of the results on the Gleissberg cycle 86.5 years
http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/585/2010/npg-17-585-2010.html
we had double [solar] pole switches in 1971 and 2014 as evident from the solar polar field strengths
so that was the half GB cycle
the next 43 years will be the [more or less] the mirror of the next 43 years [counted from 2014]
Added to the losses in ENSO it looks like the Atmosphere is going to have a lot less “sink” energy to rely on.
Added to a quieter sun could really bring some low temps to the Northern Hemisphere.
The Southern Hemisphere is already having some record breaking low temps.
The next 10 years could be see the earth heading in to very cold territory indeed.
well, we’re getting a total solar eclipse next year so….record hot!
Wow, that when the phrase “It is the Sun stupid”, gets in its full proper meaning, fully deserved…….
cheers
Looks like the NOAA fools who replaced temperature with joules ignored the ARGO most recent years for cherry picking reasons.
It also looks like any increases in ocean temperature NOAA was trying to finagle out of weak accuracy; have suffered serious reversals.
Now will come all of the favorite NOAA excuses.
• Aerosols
• Volcanoes
• sensor errors
• Arctic ice contaminating ARGO temperatures
• Mikey ate their research
I fully agree. We have no basis to compare the anomaly with anything. It could be huge or miniscule … we can’t tell. I suspect that’s what they’re trying for.
In the graph, Figure 1, above we have units GJm^2. (I read that as gigajoules meter squared. I used the caret because wordpress doesn’t seem to want me to use superscripts.) That makes no sense to me. GJm^-3 (gigajoules per cubic meter) makes sense. Can anyone enlighten me?
I believe you are correct commieBob.
As I remember Willis’s analysis of NOAA oceanic joules, he converted to cubic meter joules.
But I cannot claim remembering exactly what form of joules NOAA used.
Square meter joules is an planar area measurement without a thickness,
cubic meter is volume, with volume and content.
Which is an irritation whenever I read various watts per meter claims.
Watts per meter is an over simplistic reference to surface layers without thickness.
While solar cells may be referenced by surface area, the truth is that they have thickness and volume.
The volume is specified when the depth is specified, 700 meters. Google Argo floats.
The units there are GJ/m^2, which I would guess represent GJ/m^3 integrated over 700m of vertical depth.
“Looks like the NOAA fools who replaced temperature with joules…”
They missed a trick there.
If they’d used ergs, their big scary number would have had an extra seven zeros on it.
I’m surprised they missed that.
Why would they use ergs?
I have a strong feeling that you have no answer that is not a personal attack.
Jim Yushchyshyn: “Why would they use ergs?”
For the same reason that they converted a few hundredths of a degree of ocean warming into zettajoules (1 zettajoule = 1.0E+21 joules), because it turns a tiny non-frightening temperature increase into a big scary number to frighten the children and the bedwetters, so if they had used ergs they would have got an extra seven zeros, making it an even bigger, scarier number.
As one of the authors of the blogpost in 2013 that inspired O. Humlum to publish the diagramm at “Climate for you” ( see footnote there) I can say: We marked the decline in the upper heat content of parts of the northern Atlantic as a sign of a decline of the overturning and NOT as a direct impact of lower solar activity. Some links are under discussion, anyway, see https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260379066_Evidence_for_external_forcing_of_the_Atlantic_Multidecadal_Oscillation_since_termination_of_the_Little_Ice_Age
best
Frank
sign of a decline of the overturning and NOT as a direct impact of lower solar activity
For the true believers, such facts do not matter. Funny how self-described skeptics are not so skeptical when it comes to cooling alarmism.
I’m way too stupid to even opine, other than the observation that Leif seems to be channeling Mosher 🙂
Even if so, is that a problem for you?
@LSvalgaard
If you think this article is alarmistic, I would really like to know what you think of the pro-AGW articles written elsewhere on the web. Come on, this article is in no way alarmistic.
All Archibald’s posts the last several years have been alarmist. Especially since cold is cause for alarm while warm is not so much.
I don’t recall EVA’ hearing Mr. Archibald claiming that the Earth was going to cool by 6 or 7 degrees !
He has whined about 2 to 3 degrees which is bad enough. Even the Maunder minimum wasn’t that much colder.
yes Leif
The reason is that many AGW skeptics tend to think that skepticism is a POSITION rather than a tool
one uses to get to a better understanding.
in it’s Extreme form you will see it above where one skeptic suggests throwing out the whole sun spot
record rather than correcting it.
This is the anti science, anti understanding, virulent form of skepticism.
lsvalgaard August 21, 2016 at 9:58 am
Hi Doc. on a bit of related information,
Have we been able to observe and record any eleven year cycles on any near by G2 type stars? (I looked on wiki and Sol was listed as a G2V somehow I remembered it as as a G3 . To many years.
And no I am not trying to sand bag you. Its just any observations of like stars tend to give us a better picture of our own.
michael
You are correct. Cold IS alarming. It is the enemy of all critters. It is particularly dangerous if it catches us, while we are frantically scrambling about, chasing AGW pixies and CO2 goblins. GK
Steven Mosher —
Certainly then, you would agree that “consensus” is a position and certainly NOT a tool.
It is anti-science, anti-understanding, yes? Those who use the term favorably are anti-science, anti-understanding, yes?
It is an authoritarian phrase that brooks no opposition. It heralds a new dark age. The people who use that phrase are Luddites. You agree, of course.
I am talking about how that term is used in climate science today — today’s reality. Don’t talk about it in the abstract where today’s reality becomes mush.
Eugene WR Gallun
At some point healthy skepticism can tip over into noxious nihilism. For sure, it’s an unhealthy path to follow.
No, it is just funny reading your hysteric rants. Do I hear the sound of million dollar grants drying up, and a 6 figure salary going away? I hope so.
I wonder, is “many AGW skeptics tend to think” an example of weasel words or simply a crass attempt at a broad and unflattering generalization?
Leif, 2-3 degrees make a heck a lot of difference when you start talking about below 40 degrees and 32 degrees or below as a farmer. The USDA Zone map focuses on minimums and bears it out. Now there is a maximum map, but it has a heck of a lot more wiggle room when it comes to agriculture. But yes, rhubarb and cherries don’t do well in the South…. we get it (heat sensitive and number of chill days). But when the freeze or frost line starts moving south in CA or FL, you get crop failures. That applies to other areas in the sub-tropical to temperate transitions. The warm is safer moving north than the cold south.
Would it not be reasonable to expect a lag in the effect of solar activity?
The upper oceans would warm as a function of the time interval of increased solar activity, then gradually cool under a regime of lower activity, would they not?
Quiet sun and low solar activity will cause cooling has been talked about for quite some time.
Actual cooling should have shown up by now. So far, there is no indication of that in the UAH data set.
Personally, I have been predicting a strong cooling trend since 2005, and I have been strongly wrong since 2005.
*sigh*
..The cooling is hiding deep in the Oceans….
Or perhaps in the inherent randomness of natural variability?
That’s funny.
I don’t think that climate change is random. We might not understand what drives it, but it does change more or less cyclically, on various time scales.
In the long run, of course, Earth is doomed, unless future earthlings practice solar system engineering and pioneering on a grand scale. Or leave the system.
Funny Marcus, but I think you’re exactly right. Long term turn over of deep ocean waters probably has more effect on global and regional weather on multi-decadal time scales than whatever the sun does. We know next to nothing about these turn overs and their heat absorption potentials dwarf any solar imbalance by multiple orders of magnitude. The fantastic, pathetic thing about AGW is the persistence of an entire field of (science?)in avoiding every thousand pound gorilla in the room while raving about invisible, microscopic monkeys.
It’s all just politics. Nothing else could be so stupid!
“thousand pound gorilla”
John, Dr Spencer referred to natural internal variability as the “800 pound gorilla in the room” in his 2008 testimony before the u. s. senate… (and, no, he was not metaphorically referring to senator boxer who was “in the room”)
John Harmsworth: “…multi-decadal time scales…
Make that multi-centennial time scales.
There has been a slight cooling trend, however it hasn’t reached the level of statistical significance.
I’m waiting until after the El Nino/La Nina pair has finished.
Well looks like here is a chance to see how data contends with theory to see which result is confirmed. Either the measured temperatures continue falling, rise or stay the same. I look forward to the outcome but as a human being I hope it doesn’t get too cold, too quickly or people could die.
OTOH, the quicker it cools, the quicker al gore shuts up… (☺)
Oh no, that’s wrong. I’ve been through this before back in the 70’s. Cooling won’t shut anybody up, trust me on that one.
Global warming causes Atlantic cooling, don’t you know? At least until NOAA adjusts the Argo float data.
John, a wise observation. Anything other than a worldwide temperature rise through the early 2020’s would be the death knell for AGW. As I previously implied elsewhere, though, a lack of warming would be hotly contested by the individuals, politicians and industrial beneficiaries of the AGW meme. Massive amounts of money and talent would be expended to shore up the idea of future catastrophic “climate change.” Brace yourself, Bridget.
Dave Fair
A cold solar cycle will definitely chill any hot debates.
emsnews — made me laugh — Eugene WR Gallun
What if the world cools, but the mainstream media and consensus science say it’s warming? Just my paranoia kicking in, I’ve read too many Phillip K. Dick novels…
How long has it been since you tried to shear your sheep?
=========
I leave sheep alone; do you?
[Shearly, you can’t be surely serious about that accusation? .mod]
kim: How did you know he posted on an Android?
John, I think you are missing the point about data, it has been and will be adjusted to suit the need of the CAGW crowd. How long was the pause denied until it was busted with data adjustments, That will happen again if needed.
Facts and data don’t matter even if it does not fit the agenda which is redistribution as admitted by the IPCC head.
Cat you hit the nail on he head. Until the Green Blob goes away or gets much smaller, crooks and scoundrels will continue to adjust the data to fit their wants and models.
Cat, Bob Tisdale and others’ outing of Karl’s 2015 adjustments just MAY moderate future attempts. Those adjustments will not impact trends going forward.
Adjustments affect past trends. They would need to come up with new stuff looking back from the mid-2020’s.
Possible? Yeh. Paranoia? Yeh. Vigilance, though, is the price of freedom.
So, paranoia or not, it pays to watch the dealer’s hands.
John, the measured temperatures, whatever they are, can be or rather will be fixed.
“as a human being I hope it doesn’t get too cold, too quickly or people could die”
Population problem solved then.
“Population problem solved then” . Nature is a great balancer of problems….
The Warmists are doubly-wrong, and their wrong-headedness is having, and will have serious consequences for humanity. First, they claim that we are warming at an “alarming” rate, and that it will get much, much worse unless we, to put it bluntly, destroy our economies, which is prong two of their wrong-headedness; that we are to blame. Furthermore, the Warmists have an industry to protect – their own.
Now, what of those like David Archibald who warn of the opposite? Now sure, they could, as individuals sell a book or two. But the bottom line is, since cooling, if it does occur couldn’t possibly be “our fault” (though I wouldn’t put it past the Warmistas to try that gambit) the only thing we really need to do is strengthen our economies instead of weakening them. The horrors.
If white sand, blue water, and palm trees relax you, you may want to vote for Donald Trump.
Because life’s a beach.
You have nailed the reason I live on Florida’s Sun Coast.
Trump might build a wall around Florida, like around his golf course in Ireland.
So, the dynamics are chaotic and therefore unpredictable. We should stick to short-term weather forecasts and avoid causing catastrophic anthropogenic economic misalignments (including population control schemes) that historically and currently pose a greater threat to human viability.
Global Lower Tropospheric average temperature is predictable about 4 months in the future based on the NIno3.4 Anomaly Index, except when major volcanoes cause global cooling.. See the proof below.
Longer term climate is perhaps not as predictable, although some writers have noted a good correlation with solar activity. I have not verified this myself, but have no reason to believe they are incorrect.
In 2002 we predicted global cooling would commence by 2020-2030, based on paleontology studies of climate and solar activity. I am now leaning towards cooling starting by 2020 or perhaps sooner, but it will take many years of data to reach a firm conclusion.
Incidentally, global cooling will probably kill many more people than global warming.
Regards, Allan
__________________
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/07/16/does-ipcc-practice-willful-blindness-of-water-vapor-to-prove-a-scientific-point-for-a-political-agenda/comment-page-1/#comment-2262020
[excerpt]
This is interesting: Others have published on it, notably John Christy in 1994 and Bob Tisdale circa 2009-2010.
Nino3.4 Index leads UAHLT (Lower Troposphere) global temperature (and +/-20degreesN-S Precipitable Water – see second plot) by ~four months.
The Nino3.4 area, which is about 1% of the global surface area, apparently drives (or at least predicts) global temperature.
The relationship changed due to major volcanoes in 1982 and 1991, where up to 0.7C of global cooling occurred and then abated.
In the first plot, UAHLT is lagged by 4 months (after UAHLTcalc. from Nino3.4 Index) to show the strong correlation.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1041547122589516&set=pcb.1041548565922705&type=3&theater
From 1996 onwards after the effect of the volcanoes had abated, R2 = 0.55 between UAHLTactual and UAHLTcalc. from Nino3.4 Index
and R2 = 0.46 between UAHLTactual and Scaled Precipitable Water (+/-20 degrees N, 0-360 degrees W).
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1041547895922772&set=pcb.1041548565922705&type=3&theater
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1041548175922744&set=pcb.1041548565922705&type=3&theater
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1041548405922721&set=pcb.1041548565922705&type=3&theater
History tells us the chances of the earth entering yet another major Ice Age is around 100%. The only real debate is what year this begins in ernest. All Ice Ages began very, very suddenly.
No, they end suddenly, but the decent into a new glaciation takes tens of thousands of years.
I posted a link to and extracts from this 2014 paper, but they haven’t appeared. So I’ll just give its title and authors, to facilitate finding the .pdf.
Solar activity correlation with NAO and ENSO
Simeon Asenovski, Boian Kirov, Yana Asenovska
It also discusses causation as well as correlation.
In figure 3, the time series of the Argo floats, it appears that the cold is coming from the bottom of the ocean. I don’t know where the cold is coming from, but you would think that the temperatures would change from the top down if the solar cycle was responsible.
This is a good point. Perhaps ocean circulation is the real driver of most of the climate.
Exactly.
Doubtful.
Yes, And a forcing from GHG at the low end of the IPCC interval, TCR about 1.3 as Nic Lewis has shown from observations and I could recalculate https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/05/11/the-transient-climate-response-tcr-revisited-from-observations-once-more/ .
Anyway, some (also solar) forcing of the atlantic variability and other elements are not to exclude as actual papers discuss.
Today’s SSTA and currents from nullschoolearth. Gulf Stream looking weak.
The ocean surface warms the atmosphere unevenly. The atmosphere responds to the gradient with winds. Winds drive the ocean currents and upwelling. Which the real driver of most of climate?
“Perhaps ocean circulation is the real driver of most of the climate.”
I tend to agree with that.
“Perhaps.” 🙂
Today’s currents and SSTA courtesy nullschoolearth. Gulf Stream not looking strong.
The ocean heats the atmosphere unevenly. The atmosphere responds to the gradients with winds. The winds control the ocean currents and usually the upwelling.
Which is the real driver of most of climate?
Which is the real driver of most of climate?
Obviously, the circulation of the ocean.
Yet the proximate cause of ENSO, well recognized as one (with AMO) of two dominant quasi cyclic climatic factors, is the failure of the Pacific trade winds.
It is not at all clear from differential atmospheric heating by the Pacific why the trade winds should quasi periodically fail.
Again courtesy here are the trade winds today. I would call them southern hemisphere dominated today.
Here are the rather desultory currents overlain on SSTA. I would say upwelling rules.
Upwelling is thought to depend not on the currents themselves, but on Ekman transport, a weird phenomenon where moments of wind shear translate progressively to 90 degrees right in the northern hemisphere and left in the southern hemisphere with depth.
“This is a good point. Perhaps ocean circulation is the real driver of most of the climate.”
There are a lot of factors that go into the climate. Anyone who claims that there is a single dominant factor (CO2, ocean circulation, solar wind modulation of cosmic rays) is missing the point – it is a VERY complex system, and a large number of factors are intertwined. In such a dynamic, chaotic system long term prediction is not merely difficult, it is IMPOSSIBLE based on the mathematical nature of chaotic systems.
The largest single factor (which is not a primal cause but is itself influenced by everything else) are the interactions and movements of water vapor, and CO2 is far behind.
Of course any scientifically trained person who has studied the climate system for even a short time understands this, so you must just be trolling a public forum for the lurlz.
Greets, Moa (PhD, Physics)
Moa makes more sense than any of you. It is a complex system and until you can tell us what drives the currents, and the winds and, and, and,… then please do not use your crystal ball program to predict disaster. Average is a fools tool.
“The cold is coming from the bottom…” Cold doesn’t move, but heat does, better to ask where the heat was and where it is going – clearly it must be absorbed to warm some colder (water) or radiated somewhere (space? ) where it is lost – any ideas?
Cold does move! As a negative energy potential embodied in material objects. Ocean waters may move much more slowly than surface weather, but they can suck up an awful lot of heat when they arrive. Just as they can release a lot-el nino.
This sounds like the old “electrons move, holes don’t” argument
That was my first thought when I looked at the ARGO graph too, but it’s not a graph of current, just a measure of heat. I’m familiar with currents around Monterey CA, a famous upwelling of cold water that creates a pretty unique marine environment. When I looked at that graph I thought “upwelling”! But there’d need to be more evidence. What would cause it? Cold water doesn’t just rise, I’d think a shift in flow big enough to cause something like that would also leave a few other clues?
Sorry, I should have mentioned that was in response to John’s comment:
Maybe a slowing, weaker Gulf Stream and its extension north along the west European coast permits more upwelling there of cold water.
Bartleby
August 21, 2016 at 11:14 am :
I think we can say the integral of wind forces is able to bring warm and cold currents to surface areas where they influence air temperatures. Sometimes greatly. From memory, on this or similar blogs we recognised the ICOADS data as telling the real story of proximate cause……. but then it gets complicated?
How can you say the temperature is changing from either direction (surface or depths) from that graphic? There is no indication of energy flow “direction” in the data.
However, you have strong evidence that the major driver of temperature in these data is the sun. The seasonal ups/downs of surface water temperature coincide with the Northern Hemisphere’s summer/winter. So, I think it is safe to say that some other energy source (e.g., currents) is not drowning out the effect of the sun on these data. But that’s about it.
Seasonal changes of surface water temperature are not due to changes in solar output.
Oceanic circulations in each basin interact with each other so as to sometimes supplement and sometimes offset solar influences.
Overall the solar effect is dominant because it affects cloudiness. Solar related processes invoilving ozone in the stratosphere affect the gradient of tropopause height between equator and poles which alters jet stream tracks and global albedo via cloudiness variations. The wavier the jets the longer the lines of air mass mixing and the more clouds.
Active sun less wavy jets, less clouds and warming. Quiet sun more wavy jets and cooling.
The average rate of overturning in all the ocean basins eventually responds to solar variations. The delay depends on the constant dance between the cycles in each ocean basin.
See here:
http://www.newclimatemodel.com/the-real-link-between-solar-energy-ocean-cycles-and-global-temperature/
it appears that the cold is coming from the bottom of the ocean
====
the top is not warming
Yes the top is not warming as the incoming heat from the Sun is less possibly due to albedo or to changes in the distribution of wavelengths that make up the TSI.
Of much more interest is how fast the heat is lost in each annual variation. That should be the cause for concern we would not need much of a bad year for the ocean to cool rapidly; yet this does not seem to be the delivered wisdom.
actually
when the UV and IR reaches the oceans, the top layer of molecules is easily brought to 100 degrees C and hence evaporates to form clouds…
if this were not so happening, life as we know it would not exist.
contrary to some commenters here, I believe it is [mainly] the variation in UV reaching the oceans that is the main factor behind weather…..and the change in weather, as dictated by the sun, i.e. the 87 year Gleissberg cycle
better be prepared for the cold when it comes….
59N is just south of Greenland. 330E – 360E has East Iceland more or less in the center. Present Nullschool surface anomaly gives nearly the whole region warmer than normal surface temperatures: https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/primary/waves/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-16.37,52.32,932/loc=-15.628,60.176 Figure 3 and 4 in this post came a bit as a surprise for me.
It would be interesting to get more 3D information from the ARGO buoys about what is happening below the surface, all over the oceans. Even from the seas below 2000 meter (in the future). Until we know, we are only guessing what is happening.
RE John, if you leave your front door open in winter, it’s not cold coming in, it’s heat going out.
It’s hot air going out and cold air coming in.
You might want to rethink that statement.
In my house when the door is open and it’s colder outside than in, warm air goes out the top and cool air comes in below.
John
Agreed – the cause of changes in ocean temperatures is ocean circulation. Solar changes are far too weak to change ocean temperatures especially at depth in the short term. On the long term it is just possible that the sunspot cycle and other solar cycles might weakly entrain nonlinear oscillation of a finely balanced chaotic climate system. See Zebiak and Kane for instance. But weakly forced nonlinear oscillation can be very complex so that a solar signature would be hard to trace.
Ooh, nice. My marker goes here.
=======
How long has it had to entrain? What are the odds it hasn’t entrained? Well, I can’t calculate the odds, but I can see the scale.
===============
Heat rises, energy reaching the ocean from the sun is reduced from the top down, remember, in the graph you’re looking at, observations of reduced energy reaching deeper levels of the ocean is caused by the sun, satellite data that shows increased energy leaving the ocean is also caused by the sun, does that make sense?
Observations of Increased heat leaving the oceans from satellite ties in with observed cooling that is observed in the measurements of cooling.
*of cooling ocean
“Heat rises,”
OMG. It DOES not. Geez … HOT AIR rises due to BUOYANCY.
(DO YOU THINK the astronauts heads ONLY got hot in the suites they wore? Please, get an education. )
It’s a perfectly acceptable shorthand.
That only serves to highlight the importance of long run ocean cycles in the discussion and any correlations. If in fact it is a combination of near term solar effects and long run ocean cycles, then that further complicates the understanding. But to resort to global temps and century long averages or strictly near term solar observations amounts to deflection of the issue.
From looking at the collapse of Atlantic ocean temps, it seems likely the 30-year AMO cool cycle will start from around 2019.
When that occurs, both the Atlantic and the Pacific will be in their respective 30-year cool cycles and global temps ALWAYS fall when this happens…
Moreover, sunspot activity should be near zero from 2019, and the weakest solar cycle since 1790 starts from around 2022, which will likely add to natural global cooling…
CAGW is so dead…
Not sure the chart is that good of an indicator for the AMO. It is one area and I suspect a key area for predicting the AMO in the future but not necessarily a measure of the entire North Atlantic basin. I would still go with 2025 before the entire AMO basin averages out to a negative value. This doesn’t mean the index isn’t falling over the next decade.
This could very likely be the effect of the loss of sea ice over the past decade. As the ice has melted it has allowed vast quantities of energy to be lost to the atmosphere and space. The currents are slowly bringing this water into the North Atlantic which is my own personal view of what is driving the changes (not solar).
I believe there is still enough warm water in the gulf stream flowing into the North Atlantic and Arctic which will need to be cooled before the entire AMO index goes negative.
However, scary talk of a coming Maunder Minimum is a little overblown. IMO the worst we can expect reasonably would be another Dalton Minimum, but maybe not even that bad, since we’re starting from a warmer world, compared to the LIA of the late 18th century. And are unlikely to get a Tambora-scale eruption (1815) during the downturn.
Gabro,
The Little Ice Age started at the end of the Medieval Warm Period. The Great Famine of the years 1315 to 1322 were the start of the change in climate to cold from very warm. To quote Brian Fagan’s book “The Long Summer: How Climate Changed Civilization”:
“Seven weeks after Easter in A.D. 1315, sheets of rain spread across a sodden Europe, turning freshly plowed fields into lakes and quagmires. The deluge continued through June and July, and then August and September. Hay lay flat in the fields; wheat and barley rotted unharvested. The anonymous author of the Chronicle of Malmesbury wondered if divine vengeance had come upon the land: “Therefore is the anger of the Lord kindled against his people, and he hath stretched out his hand against them, and hath smitten them.” Most close-knit farming communities endured the shortages of 1315 and hoped for a better harvest the following year. But heavy spring rains in 1316 prevented proper sowing. Intense gales battered the English Channel and North Sea; flocks and herds withered, crops failed, prices rose, and people again contemplated the wrath of God. By the time the barrage of rains subsided in 1321, over a million-and-a-half people, villagers and city folk alike, had perished from hunger and famine-related epidemics. Giles de Muisit, abbot of Saint-Martin de Tournai in modern-day Belgium, wrote, “Men and women from among the powerful, the middling, and the lowly, old and young, rich and poor, perished daily in such numbers that the air was fetid with the stench.” People everywhere despaired. Guilds and religious orders moved through the streets, the people naked, carrying the bodies of saints and other sacred relics. After generations of good, they believed that divine retribution had come to punish a Europe divided by war and petty strife.
The great rains of 1315 marked the beginning of what climatologists call the Little Ice Age, a period of six centuries of constant climatic shifts that may or may not be still in progress. ”
I think that some have lost their sense of scale for time and the size of the planet and have a degree of hubris over the impact of humanity because of that. * A small hurricane in one day extracts energy from the ocean equivalent to 200 times world total electricity generation capacity;
* Ants and termites generate more CO2 than all of human activities – cement works, aircraft, road transport, coal fired power stations etc.,
That claim is highly implausible.
According to a report in 1996 termites produce around 3.5 Gt of CO2.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/96GB01893/full
Human emissions are over 30 Gt a year according to the latest IPCC report.
Ian,
I meant only that the LIA was still going on in 1790.
Figure 1 is mislabeled. I think it should be annual rather than monthly.
A very interesting main post.The charts are the key component and show the trends over time.
Thank you Mr Archibald for taking the time to present them.
2007 marks a number of shifts; end of the downward trend in summer min Arctic sea ice extent and volumn, beginning of N Atlantic cooling, etc. Wonder how this fits in: “2007 — NASA Sees Arctic Ocean Circulation Do an About-Face.”
Here: http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2007-131
Wow, that when the phrase “It is the Sun stupid”, gets in its full proper meaning, fully deserved
David, thanks for the post. However, the ReynoldsOI sea surface temperature data do not agree with your claims. Here is that data:
So I’m sorry, but your claims about the “persistent failures of the wheat crop in Norway” simply don’t ring true—if Norway is in such trouble now, they would have been dead in 1985, when North Atlantic temperatures were much colder. Honestly, David, that kind of “the horror!” alarmism is just as inappropriate when you do it as when Al Gore does it.
Next, if a falling sun is the cause of the current drop in North Atlantic temperatures as you claim, then what is your explanation of the much colder temperatures in the 1980s, when according to you the sun was much stronger?
Finally, the area cited in your top graph and shown in my graph is less than 1% of the surface of the planet … and despite that you are drawing conclusions about the whole planet from that. Now, if Michael Mann tried that kind of nonsense you’d scream bloody murder, and rightly so. But it’s no more proper when you do it …
w.
PS—Other than your own article I don’t find anything about your claimed “persistent failures of the wheat crop in Norway”. Nor have their been any such failures in Sweden, which grows more wheat than Norway. Finally, the yields in both countries have been relatively stable since about 1990 or so. Any “persistent failures” would show up in both the yield and the production figures, and I don’t find evidence of such problems either at FAO or on the web in either Norway or Sweden. Google something like “recent norway wheat failure” and you’ll find what I found.
Nothing.
Well, nothing but your article, which is not that reassuring.
And in any case, wheat is the wrong indicator. Norway and Sweden both grow about ten times the amount of barley as wheat. And just like with the wheat, there’s no great reduction in either yield or production of barley.
Willis,
David links to his 2013 article about Norwegian wheat crops.
Why do you prefer the rather generalised Reynolds data over the more recent Humlum data which is far more specific and targeted?
Stephen Wilde August 21, 2016 at 11:21 am
I said in my comment that I’d found his article. Not impressed, sorry.
a) I don’t “prefer” Reynolds, I’m just pointing out that the Reynolds data doesn’t agree with his conclusions.
b) The ReynoldsOI data goes up to the present, so I’m not clear how the Humlum data could be “more recent”.
c) I have used exactly the same area shown in Archibald’s first plot … what do you mean by “more targeted”?
Regards,
w.
The two data sources differ. I’d like to know why.
Steve, I believe one is SST and the other is ocean heat to 700 meters.
Thanks. Not like with like then. Willis should know that.
Not like with like then.
===
We have a winner.
The Argo data obviously does not match the SST data…..until Argo shows surface cooling
…and then it does
There is no indication in Norwegian wheat production figures of any crop failures:
http://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?country=no&commodity=wheat&graph=production
Overall production has been increasing since about 1970. While there is definitely considerable variation in production after 1970 with annual variations ranging up to 175 million tonnes, the timing suggests that economics was more influential than climate, especially since a heavy crop one year will tend to be discouraged by government influences the following year. Norway has one of the most managed agricultural systems in the world.
Peak year for wheat production in Norway was 2008:
http://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?country=no&commodity=wheat&graph=production
For whatever reason, it crashed thereafter and has stayed low.
Correlation and causation of solar activity with the ENSO and NAO is clear:
Solar activity correlation with NAO and ENSO
Simeon Asenovski, Boian Kirov, Yana Asenovska
http://www.issibern.ch/teams/interplanetarydisturb/…/Asikainen_03_2014.pdf
For the ENSO, long-term variation is closely related to the secular solar activity variations. Both the intensity and occurrence frequency of El Nino are low at secular solar maximum and high at secular solar minimum. In the 11-year solar cycle, El Nino has a statistically significant minimum one year before solar activity maximum.
For the NAO, solar activity and the latitudes of the North Atlantic centers of action: with increasing solar activity, Iceland low moves to the south, while the Azores high moves to the north, and the two centers of action come closer.
Broken link above. Is it
http://www.issibern.ch/teams/interplanetarydisturb/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Asikainen_03_2014.pdf
See also
https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2016/06/30/rj-salvador-predicting-el-nino-predicts-the-climate/
Yes.
Thanks!
I have to say, no, I don’t believe it. Any correlation based on incomplete data should make you nervous. We don’t have a complete picture of the ocean temps. I know when I cared about statistics (which was a LONG time ago), I would be afraid to try and make that link. Mr Park would have been annoyed (WU StL – hardest exams ever – Econometrics exams were all essays in undergrad!)
G3,
The correlation looks strong to me, and their work also discusses causal mechanisms.
Moreover, it stands to reason that even small variations in TSI, its spectral composition and solar magnetic flux over time would affect tropical SSTs, ozone concentration, atmospheric pressure over the oceans, currents and winds.
It was exceptionally cool in april 2013. This effected the crop of all sorts of grain. The farmers in Norway changed in some areas to gras. There are several reasons why farmers close to North Pole and now with wetter climate have to change to other products. The total area of soil is under pressure year by year, so it has decreased, but fr other reasns. As you all know Norway is heavily blessed with rocks and mountains. The rest of our soil is tempting areas for city developers…
Thanks.
http://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?country=no&commodity=wheat&graph=production
2013 bad year
2016=1998 oroduction
between these dates better harvest.
Willis states “So I’m sorry, but your claims about the “persistent failures of the wheat crop in Norway” simply don’t ring true”. Since I happen to be a Norwegian living in Norway I found Davids claim a bit strange, so I followed his own link. I’m not convinced. The argument he makes is that since there is ups and downs in our total wheat production, we are going through ups and downs in climate. He does not discuss the impact of political decisions, of how agriculture is organized in our country. That has a major impact, and one that will thoroughly mask any climate signal of any crop grown in this country. He does not touch upon crop prices. When the price drops, do you really think our farmers don’t take notice and grow something else? Besides which, we don’t use domestic wheat for human consumption…the quality is way inferior to imported crops.
So Willis is absolutely right about his statement. Norway is actually warming, we do not have any persistent failure of any crops. I’m skeptical about the rest of Davids post, based on this.
Well with the advances in production and the higher yielding strains currently used I would hope to see better than a peak in 1990 for Barley. Harvesting methods have moved so far forward in 26 years that I think most people would expect to see at least the same level of production.
1990 731 (1000 MT) 24.96 %
1991 691 (1000 MT) -5.47 %
1992 469 (1000 MT) -32.13 %
1993 615 (1000 MT) 31.13 %
1994 510 (1000 MT) -17.07 %
1995 547 (1000 MT) 7.25 %
1996 682 (1000 MT) 24.68 %
1997 663 (1000 MT) -2.79 %
1998 619 (1000 MT) -6.64 %
1999 624 (1000 MT) 0.81 %
2000 574 (1000 MT) -8.01 %
2001 624 (1000 MT) 8.71 %
2002 593 (1000 MT) -4.97 %
2003 585 (1000 MT) -1.35 %
2004 631 (1000 MT) 7.86 %
2005 589 (1000 MT) -6.66 %
2006 538 (1000 MT) -8.66 %
2007 485 (1000 MT) -9.85 %
2008 558 (1000 MT) 15.05 %
2009 473 (1000 MT) -15.23 %
2010 541 (1000 MT) 14.38 %
2011 495 (1000 MT) -8.50 %
2012 573 (1000 MT) 15.76 %
2013 480 (1000 MT) -16.23 %
2014 577 (1000 MT) 20.21 %
2015 577 (1000 MT) 0.00 %
2016 580 (1000 MT) 0.52 %
Fortunately, we live in a world in which global trade allows areas with poor harvests to buy food from areas with good harvests.
The claim that crop failures should have resulted in dead Norwegians may have been true in the 1800’s but is no longer true today.
Don’t have data for every year, but Danish wheat production fell from 5,059,900 metric tonnes in 2010 to 4,139,000 MT in 2013.
http://www.geohive.com/charts/ag_wheat.aspx
Regarding Norway : Since the crop is not harvested until late august / early september we don’t know the results for this year yet. But we have had a cold and rainy summer. Early summer we experienced the highests snow levels in the mountains for over 50 years. Early August some regions in the south got snow down to altitudes of 700 meters above sea level. Normally we don’t experience this until late September. The Norwegian met office has explained this with persitant cold winds pushed down by low pressures in the polar region. It is in any case very unusual.
DA posts a plot that suggests that temps have dropped by just under 1 degC between 2006 to date (DA says the plot suggests a full 1 degC drop but my eyeballing suggests a little less).
Your plot of the Reynolds data shows a significant drop in temperatures as from about 2005, but one which is only about half that shown in the plot used by DA.
In other words, it would appear from a trend perspective that the Reynolds data depicts the point being made by DA, it is just the scale of things where differences occur.
There has been much more cloud from wavy jets as per this hypothesis:
http://joannenova.com.au/2015/01/is-the-sun-driving-ozone-and-changing-the-climate/
which fits more climate observations than any other.
ANd I thought it was due to warmer air overrunning cooler air at the surface (yielding clouds) but newthink says “jetstream”?
Has this been confirmed by movement in the “wheat line” in Canada? (that being the northern most latitude where wheat can be grow to maturity)
The only cite I could find was this from 2009: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3021086/
I haven’t seen anyone addressing this issue recently but they should be.
Faster maturing grain varieties might muddy those waters, however.
Also, I remember from gardening books, magazines and catalogs of seed houses from the 1950’s that the last day of frost in spring had moved north prior to that time for around 40 years or so. The distance was significant for farmers and gardeners in both Canada and the northern states of the US..
BTW, I found the interesting paper you mentioned but not in Scholar.
Solar activity correlation with NAO and ENSO. Simeon Asenovski, Boian Kirov, Yana Asenovska. The paper appears to be a presentation published by (International Space Science Institute (ISSI), Bern).
http://www.issibern.ch/teams/interplanetarydisturb/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Asikainen_03_2014.pdf
Main claims: Long-term relations of ENSO and Solar activity demonstrated by 1) The dependence of ENSO on solar activity with a correlation coefficient of -0.76. 2) Higher solar activity – weaker and less frequent El Nino.
They cite van Loon, Meehl, Cubasch with no title or date. Since I could not find a paper by these three authors, I think this may be a reference to Van Loon, Harry, Gerald A. Meehl, and Dennis J. Shea. “Coupled air‐sea response to solar forcing in the Pacific region during northern winter.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 112.D2 (2007).
http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/assets/osgc/OSGC-000-000-004-300.pdf
Lief also has a link to an interesting paper, SOLAR INFLUENCES ON CLIMATE, Gray, et al. 2009 that cites other papers by Van Loon et al.
http://www.leif.org/EOS/2009RG000282.pdf
Hi Fred – see
https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2016/06/30/rj-salvador-predicting-el-nino-predicts-the-climate/
buck, thank you for that most interesting document. Two points.
1. Yes, farmers have successfully grown and harvested crops in places formerly deemed too cold or too arid, and most of the new fields were in the North. Remarkably, today’s average climate where wheat is produced is both drier and colder:
“The median annual precipitation norm of the 2007 distribution of North American wheat production was one-half that of the 1839 distribution, and the median annual temperature norm was 3.7 °C lower.”
Which brings me to point 2: Agriculture has demonstrated our massive capacity to adapt to changing conditions, whether it becomes warmer or cooler, wetter or drier.
The rational climate change policy has been proven successful: Don’t Fight It, Adapt.
Bumper crops expected here in Western Canada. Cooler and wetter summer than usual. There’s always the possibility of early frost but so far, so good. Much greater crop variety now. 40 years ago, wheat was king.
Manitoba was looking at corn recently, allegedly because of “climate change”, but the interest might more to new, more rapidly maturing strains.
Grains are constantly being bred for different regions. Wheat was once a very tall plant. Over the years, shorter and faster maturing types were developed – less energy used in developing a tall stalk, and more energy pushed into a large productive head. Grains grow from the equator to Alaska. Not always in commercial quantities but the varieties are always being modified.
http://news.uaf.edu/yes-you-can-grow-grain-in-alaskas-interior/
http://dnr.alaska.gov/ag/ADHOC/HayandGrainSummaryFinal100606.pdf
http://modernfarmer.com/2013/10/arctic-farming/
buckwheaton August 21, 2016 at 11:18 am Edit
Has WHAT been confirmed?
w.
I asked a senior farmer advisor based in Montreal about the Canadian growing season. He said it has been getting longer at a rate of 2 days per decade since 1950.
He did not mention the area of the crop regions. Such an area is variety-dependent so any ‘line’ means ‘for a certain variety’ with its need for degree-days.
Sorta misleading. Sorry to fuzz the edges…
Even the Potsdam Palace Guard think that the Gulf Stream might be slowing down:
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/did-a-slow-gulf-stream-make-the-east-coast-blizzard-worse/
Sometimes I am more than amazed, and this time rather amused, by the commenters such as on this post. Arguing over the proper cause of imminent cooling is rather like a family at the kitchen table, arguing over what caused the house to be on fire while the house is burning down around them: an electrical wiring fault, no, it was arson, no no, it was hot embers from the wildfire outside.
Perhaps it makes a difference in the long term, if the evident Atlantic ocean cooling is due to cold water upwelling, or more clouds blocking the sun, or more Arctic ice melting into the Atlantic (but you’re going to need an awful lot of ice for that one).
Perhaps it makes no difference. No one can stop the oceans from upwelling. No one can stop the clouds from forming. And no one can stop Arctic ice from melting now that ton after ton of black soot, ashes, and jet engine exhaust have settled onto the ice and accelerate the melting.
It would be prudent to examine the recent trends in global cooling, then try to determine exactly what can be done to stop the trend or reverse them, or at the very least reduce the rate of cooling.
I stand by my 2012 speech and article, Warmists Are Wrong – Cooling Is Coming.
So-called “climate scientists” (as opposed to real climatologists) were wrong about coming cooling in 1976 and are liable to be just as wrong about coming warming in 2016. And those, like Callendar, who expected warming to continue after 1938.
Roger Sowell August 21, 2016 at 11:22 am
Thanks, Roger. A few clarifications:
• Your kitchen table analogy fails because you haven’t shown the house is on fire. Or in more practical terms, neither you nor David has shown that there is significant cooling, either now or “imminent”. Might happen, might not, but there is certainly no certainty on the question as you seem to assume …
• I am not “arguing over the proper cause of imminent cooling”. I am laughing at skeptics doing the same things alarmists do—arguing about the cause of a fire that nobody has shown to be actually happening.
• David Archibald has pointed out that there has been minor cooling in less than 1% of the surface of the planet … OMG, it’s all the way down to the temperature it had in 1995, EVERYONE PANIC!.
Obviously, he thinks this change in the 1% area is highly significant and presages the demise of the other 99% of the planet … equally obviously, I don’t.
I assure you that I can easily find another 1% of the planet which has warmed as much as the North Atlantic has cooled … and if you are like David Archibald and you think the vagaries of some other random 1% of the planet’s surface are more important than the vagaries of my warming 1%, I have a fine deal for you on a bridge that just happens to be for sale in Brooklyn …
w.
http://berkeleyearth.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Trend_Map_since_1950.png
There is some evidence that the North Atlantic provides a precursor for the rest of the system
…and melts a lot of ice
Steven Mosher has effectively turned Earth into Mars lol
This graph is proof that “Berkeley Earth” is nonsense.
Sparks said:
“Steven Mosher has effectively turned Earth into Mars lol”
?? Because his graph uses red to show positive trends? That makes no sense whatsoever.
“This graph is proof that “Berkeley Earth” is nonsense.”
Well, please do explain your reasoning. How does this graph prove that Bearkeley Earth is nonsense?
Steven Mosher:
?dl=0
I love the graphic you provided without comment. (Not sarcasm.) It is a decent reply to prior comments.
The Berkeley Graphic shows is there is absolutely nothing to worry about.
Willis and I have been on the planet for about the same number of years. I remember the “weather” before the start of the Berkeley trend. Years ago I went and got the temperature records for a lot of places including where I was born just to make sure my failing memory wasn’t faulty.
The Berkeley plot says that most of Canada and the arctic have gotten “warmer” by less than a half degree C since 1950. Some people want me worry about that? My plots of Canadian data suggest it hasn’t gotten warmer but “less cold”.
In my world, that is a good thing. Today I started a fire in my fireplace because it is 10 degrees outside and snowing in the mountains. Half a degree? Sheesh. But thanks for the graph.
In return, a couple out of many of my own; most are similar:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/08d575pia8wk6h6/Grand%20Forks_BC%20July.tiff?dl=0
“What, me worry?”
Philip Schaeffer
“lol” <—- is usually an indicator of humour, and I usually rag on the guy's to lighten the mood when I see them getting flustered, 'cause they're really not a bad bunch here a WUWT
🙂
Philip Schaeffer
“lol” <—- is usually an indicator of humour, I like to rag on the guys to lighten the mood when I see them getting flustered and give them a hard time until they snap out of it, they're actually not a bad bunch here at WUWT
🙂
The “warming” that climate scientists (at least those in the warmist camp) claim is based on entirely erroneous data manipulation, selective data inclusion, and other invalid methods. One wonders why the temperature record includes hundreds, if not thousands of sites that require adjustments when there are so many pristine sites available. One must also wonder how, exactly, California’s counties refused to warm over most of the 20th century – but only those with a small population of under 100,000 people. At the same time, California counties had substantial warming if the population was 1 million or more in the 1990 census. This is based on the James Goodridge charts.
Eschenbach claims I have not shown that there is significant cooling, either now or “imminent”. Let me point to the past almost 20 years of “no warming” as shown by the warmist scientists, then advance the opinion that the “no warming” is hiding an actual cooling. How will we know? Not by looking at the temperature graphs and published pronouncements of warmist scientists.
Instead, I look at the data that (hopefully) is not manipulated and changed to suit the agenda. One such example is the temperature trend for the US and its regions as measured by the USCRN, the United States Climate Reference Network. USCRN has only a short record at this time, only 11 years, but the first 10 years show a substantial cooling. (I recognize that citing my own work angers many WUWT commenters, but so be it. I have seen no other data analyses from this USCRN, excepting one that is clearly erroneous.)
http://sowellslawblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/us-in-cooling-trend-winters-much-colder.html
The summary is: “An analysis of atmospheric temperature data from 55 pristine United States Climate Reference Network locations show a pronounced annual cooling trend of minus 2.68 degrees Celsius per century over the ten-year period 2005-2014. The Winter cooling trend for the 55 locations is much greater at minus 10.86 degrees Celsius per century. The region with the most rapid Winter cooling is the MidWest and Northern Plains at minus 23.1 degrees Celsius per century. All regions have a cooling for Winter months. All regions but one, the West and Mountains, also have a pronounced annual cooling.”
So, there we have another region that shows cooling, not just the North Atlantic.
In fairness, the El Niño of 2015-16 added a warming blip to the end of the trend. As endpoint issues always do, that skews the trend. As the El Niño has now gone, the cooling trend from 2005 will continue.
“then try to determine exactly what can be done to stop the trend or reverse them”
I very much doubt there are many serious posters on here deluded enough to believe that there is anything whatsoever mankind can do to markedly influence such trends.
Please point out the posts that gave you the impression that there are (ignoring the Usual Suspects, naturally).
We can no more significantly affect the climate than we can significantly alter the time the Sun rises and sets.
Good discussion thus far.
Hmmm. I guess JoNova’s husband’s predictions are looking pretty good right now. Even if the local “we don’t need no stinking sun” fellow thinks otherwise.
I guess JoNova’s husband’s predictions are looking pretty good right now.
Perhaps you should look again and moderate your tone a bit too.
His prediction is partly based on an assumed sharp drop in TSI which actually didn’t happen. On the contrary, TSI now is higher than we would expect from solar activity.
http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-Divergence.png
David Evans doesn’t rely on TSI per se.
Wisely, he recognises that some feature other than raw TSI is having an effect on the climate system.
My proposal is this:
http://joannenova.com.au/2015/01/is-the-sun-driving-ozone-and-changing-the-climate/
which is looking good so far.
Interestingly such an approach completely sidesteps your recent work which tends to reduce the scale of solar variability so from a climate perspective your solar endeavours are irrelevant 🙂
Isvalgaard.. is that averaged TSI ? Depending on where the earth is in its orbit I thought TSI varied by 2. Perhaps there are multiple factors involved rather just TSI in solar activity. If two events are happening ( maybe more) for example, if both are in phase the results would be more dramatic than if they are out of phase. In conjunction with solar wind, CME’S, and magnetic fields.
At any rate, if this solar min is like or exceeds the last one, it should tell us something. This last el nino ended with the sun going into a min. In 1998 el nino ended with the sun going into a max. Which raises a question if solar activity is important, how did an el nino happen at or near the bottom of a a solar min? Pressure probably plays an important role in that.
I haven’t seen anywhere, does SORCE measure microwave energies? And if it does, do you know the strength? Is that incorporated into the total TSI? Also does the TSI, when it declines, fall across all energies in the spectrum or just some?
[No. TOA radiation (TSI at the earth’s position in orbit) varies by 6% over the year (+3% in January 5 at 1410 watts/m^2, down to -3% in July 5 at 1315 watts/m^2). .mod]
As you can see from the spacing of the data points, they are yearly averages in the beginning and changing to half-yearly from 2013. In both cases, the yearly variation due to the shape of the Earth’s orbit is washed out.
how did an el nino happen at or near the bottom of a a solar min
There is no evidence that el Nino has anything to do with solar activity.
And TSI is the TOTAL amount of energy for ALL wavelengths. That is what the ‘T’ in TSI stands for.
Thanks. Although I don’t think all energies from the sun are created equally from the sun, with varying degrees that have wider impacts on absorption rates that translate into heat or cold.
I’ve been thinking about el Nino’s since I posted. I’ll have to check something on that. I also thought that maybe we are looking at Solar activity incorrectly. I have to look at that.
While I still think that solar activity is a key component of climate , I need to show something that repeats besides just the cycles. I think I can do that. While the atmosphere is a resistance and the oceans are a capacitor, I’m thinking about what could be an inductance.
Stephen:
David Evans doesn’t rely on TSI per se
He does not consider any other solar variable in deriving his correlation, so TSI is it.
Lief
There is evidence that solar activity causes El nino spikes.
Regardless,
It is the suns polarities and the timing that cause sunspot activity and its intensity from the core out, as they rotate and reverse.
The polar reversal is not formed from weak magnetic field lines on the surface that build up and reverse the entire solar polarity.
I do understand that the equator on the surface of the sun rotates faster than the poles, but I disagree that weak magnetic fields cause this rotation.
The weak Magnetic Fields and sunspots are the result of the sun’s polarities interacting as they rotate and reverse.
As we have discussed before, you are so far out on the wrongness scale that no education is possible…
but I disagree that weak magnetic fields cause this rotation.
At least this is sort of correct: the [differential] rotation is what causes the magnetic field.
TSI is always higher at solar min.
where, exactly, is TSI measured?
TSI is always higher at solar min.
where, exactly, is TSI measured?
TSI is the Total Solar Irradiance [measure of the TOTAL amount of radiant energy the Sun produces].
TSI is measured in space near the Earth.
And is higher at solar maximum and lowest at solar minimum.
TSI has three parts: TSI = Base B + Sunspots S + Faculae F.
B is very nearly constant on time scale of centuries and represents the energy generated by nuclear fusion near the center of Sun. S is negative and represents the fact that sunspots are darker than the rest of the surface. F is positive and represents the fact that the area around sunspots contains magnetic fields concentrated in flux ‘tubes’ than are nearly evacuated and thus allows us to look deeper into the Sun, where temperatures are higher and thus give us more radiation. On average F = -2*S so the sum TSI will vary as S varies. F and S are controlled by the magnetic field. The magnetic contribution is thus M = F + S = -2S + S = -S, which is positive because S is negative. At solar maximum, M can reach B/1000. At solar minimum B, M is zero.
[1. Please verify the italics were correctly edited in the first paragraph.
2. Numerically, TSI is considered 1362 watts/m^2 at earth’s average distance, cycling between 1410 watt/m^2 in January, dropping to 1315 in July, correct? .mod]
Henry P .. SORCE right now measures TSI. There are probably others. This one seems to be the most accurate.
markstoval August 21, 2016 at 11:54 am
Gotta love selective memory. Here are David Evans’ (JoNova’s husband) actual predictions:
In fact, Dr. Evans’ 2013 prediction, incorporating data up to 2012 (smooth falling brown line starting in 2013), is that by now the globe should be no less than ~ 0.7°C cooler than it was in 2013. That’s more than the earth warmed in the 20th century, so David Evan’s prediction was that by now we should be back around the temperatures prevailing in 1900.
I would hardly call his prediction that we should already be in 1900-style temperatures “looking good right now” …
w.
Just shows one shouldn’t predict.
David’s basic thesis looks sound enough though.The problem is that none of us has a handle on system thermal inertia.
Be patient, y’all! Jus’ wait a year or two ’til the el nino (and subsequent la nina?) is out of the way AND then we’ll see what happens…
Stephen Wilde August 21, 2016 at 1:03 pm
Stop making predictions? That would be the end of science. Science is based in part on the ability to use our knowledge of the real world to make accurate predictions, and I give David Evans kudos for making a prediction … however, it failed.
If the basic thesis says that by now we should be in temperatures last seen in 1900, perhaps you should take another look before saying it “looks sound enough” …
w.