Forecasters now expect 70-percent chance of 12 to 17 named storms
In its updated 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, NOAA calls for a higher likelihood of a near-normal or above-normal season, and decreases the chance of a below-normal season to only 15 percent, from the initial outlook issued in May. The season is still expected to be the most active since 2012.
Forecasters now expect a 70 percent chance of 12 to 17 named storms, of which 5 to 8 are expected to become hurricanes, including 2 to 4 major hurricanes. The initial outlook called for 10-16 named storms, 4 to 8 hurricanes, and 1-4 major hurricanes. The seasonal averages are 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
“We’ve raised the numbers because some conditions now in place are indicative of a more active hurricane season, such as El Niño ending, weaker vertical wind shear and weaker trade winds over the central tropical Atlantic, and a stronger west African monsoon,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “However, less conducive ocean temperature patterns in both the Atlantic and eastern subtropical North Pacific, combined with stronger wind shear and sinking motion in the atmosphere over the Caribbean Sea, are expected to prevent the season from becoming extremely active.”
“Given these competing conditions, La Niña, if it develops, will most likely be weak and have little impact on the hurricane season,” added Bell. NOAA announced today that La Niña is slightly favored to develop during the hurricane season.
To date, there have been five named storms, including two hurricanes (Alex and Earl). Four made landfall: Bonnie (in South Carolina), Colin (in western Florida), Danielle (in eastern Mexico), and Earl (in Belize and Mexico).
As we move into the peak of hurricane season, when hurricanes are most frequent and often at their strongest, NOAA urges coastal residents to make sure they have their hurricane preparedness plans in place and to monitor the latest forecasts. Learn how NOAA forecasts hurricanes.
On the Web:
Atlantic hurricane season outlook update
Atlantic hurricane season outlook (May 27)
The Gods must be angry.
Scott,
No.
NOAA is batting 1000 [is that the American expression? Comes from baseball I think . . .] for all their after-season reports.
So, obviously, a ‘Forecaster’s prediction’ [Forecast? Expectation?, Hope? Blind guess? Random thingy with gut feeling added?] must be correct.
Are there computer models in there anywhere?
Auto,
Confidently predicting that the average number of legs possessed by the winners of the 2018 Preakness and the 2018 Epsom Derby will be exactly 4.000000.
Right now, mid-August, there is nothing, nada not a sign of a tropical storm much less, any hurricanes.
I think a drunk, blindfolded, spider monkey could throw darts at a board and do better than NOAA with their seasonal hurricane outlooks some of the times. But really it’s a very tough thing to do.
Auto,
I believe that the Jockey also gets credit for the win so the Leg count should be 6.000000
(not that I’m horsing around)
What a rip….they will upgrade/change their forecast as the season goes on
Even bigger rip…if the wind is blowing, it’s a cyclone
Big scary word that fools a lot of people
Interestingly there were 2 Tropical Storms in the Pacific Monday, both with sustained winds of 55 knots. The storm at the base of Baja was labeled “Tropical Storm” while the storm just east of Japan was labeled “Severe Tropical Storm” yet both had virtually the same statistics.
This does not look like anything but a continuation of the slump which started around 2005.
If my observation that this is similar to the slump in cyclone energy which happened during the last temperature “plateau” in the late 1930s and 40s , is not just coincidental, then I would not expect cyclone activity to pick up much before 2020 when the cooling part of the cycle starts to make itself evident.
Oops, I forgot the link tot the article over at Climate Etc.
https://judithcurry.com/2016/01/11/ace-in-the-hole/
It looks like they wait for the Weatherbell Saturday Summary to say something about hurricanes before putting their forecast out.
Latitude August 11, 2016 at 10:05 am
“What a rip….they will upgrade/change their forecast as the season goes on”
How dare they use the latest evidence to shape an accurate forecast to help those who may be in the path of these terrible storms. Shame on them. They should be held accountable to the first forecast they offer.
Tell us how “those who may be in the path of these terrible storms” would be helped by a prediction change from ~ 10-16 named storms, 4 to 8 hurricanes, and 1-4 major hurricanes, to ~ 12 to 17 named storms, 5 to 8 hurricanes, and 2 to 4 major hurricanes . . or please drop the climate justice warrior guilt trip routine. It’s creepy to watch such puffery . .
..or something like that LOL
They always start out with a high forecast…
…and then lower it as the season goes on
They have no evidence, they can’t forecast squat….
..and their crying wolf makes people ignore them
“Tell us how “those who may be in the path of these terrible storms” would be helped by a prediction change from ~ 10-16 named storms, 4 to 8 hurricanes, and 1-4 major hurricanes, to ~ 12 to 17 named storms, 5 to 8 hurricanes, and 2 to 4 major hurricanes . . or please drop the climate justice warrior guilt trip routine. It’s creepy to watch such puffery . .”
With a cynical comment like that I hope the first storm heads your way. You can take their advice or leave it…. personally I hope you leave it.
“You can take their advice or leave it….”
I don’t place bets on the number of named storms in a given year or whatever, so I guess I’ll be leaving their advice . . Good luck to you though . .
Simon thinks knowing how many cars are on the road…will tell him when he can cross
Simon, JohnKnight’s comment is perfectly logical and rational; it is not cynical. The bottom line is people should be prepared every hurricane season because there have always been and there always will be hurricanes, global warming or not. Talking up numbers achieves nothing.
“accurate”? If you had actually looked at NOAAs record on these long range hurricane forecasts and updates you could not honestly make such a statement. This year they’re right in the ball park with Weatherbell.com and others but during several previous years their forecast was way out in left field because they refused to by swayed by reality when they predicted an active season initially and did not adjust in their update when the season was obviously less active than they predicted.
I’m a big skeptic on modeled climate, some could call me a denier. But as a boater who spends half their time away from close docks, updated forecasts are important in planning long runs. You will hit weather regardless, but if more hurricane activity is predicted, I may decrease my distance away from shore or run a little closer to marina’s with large Travellifts (big crane like devices to pull your heavy boat out of the water).
We really need a forecast for the year 2100. That should be easy for our Climate Models…
Greg,
Easy for me and my trusty Tardis I borrowed from the Dr. I set the Tardis controls for September 15, 2100, Geosynchronous orbit over at 080deg W latitude position. I took my trusty iPhone and snapped a pic for you. I just got back from 2100.
Here ya’ go:
September 15, 2100 – Geosynchronous.
http://i68.tinypic.com/2mr74wk.png
Disclaimer: the Tardis have been known to take me to alternate reality univereses that have nothing to do with our universe….sort of like the Climate Models the IPCC uses.
080 deg W longitude that is.
It looks like the inside of a climate model! Little wheels going round, going round, going nowhere!
So when they get this updated prediction wrong, who will ever call them out about how wrong there models are? Answer, NOBODY!!!!!
It’s not a prediction, it is an outlook based on the current conditions that can affect development of tropical systems. These conditions change throughout the season so this is just an update on those changes.
It might be more helpful if the outlooks were for shorter terms than for the entire six-month season. Perhaps if it were reported that, for the short term, few if any threatening storms are expected out of Africa because winds and cooler water there are not conducive to development and prologed life, but the sea surface temps of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are conducive to the rapid development of storms, which are likely to make landfall. But who knows what October and November will look like.
It is a prediction. There is no difference between a prediction and an outlook, they can never be wrong if the get to update it.
I live in Florida also Tom and I’m not betting on these guys. Oh by the way, why do the call this Dept. this if they aren’t predictions?
Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
So when they get this updated prediction wrong….LOL
They can’t be wrong…look at their outlook probability
Nowadays, if ten cows in a field fart at the same time, they name it as a storm !!
Actually, if ten or more cows fart at the same time, it’s a plot! Name your villain . . .
Mr. Mammalian Methane, that’s a bad dude. You need the GreenPiece GreenPunks to clean this one up!
Cows are ladies, last I looked.
If 5 cows fart simultaneously it’s a gas. Potty…Potty…Potty….Potty
If 10 cows fart simultaneously it’s a Methane thunder storm.
If 20 cows fart simultaneously it’s a Methnado
If 30 cows fart simultaneously it’s a Methicane
If 40 or more fart simultaneously it’s a “Super Methicane”
rbabcock
don’t be too concerned about it, I’m certain Pop Piasa wasn’t trying to STEER you wrong
Ten or more cows in a field will soon become a legal liability as AG staffs set to working counting and blaming with RICO cow impact laws. Less than 10 cows is okay as a small business exemption….for now.
Udderly no shame, have you….
[Do not be cowed into accepting BS from those who you would hurt you. .mod]
Insufferabull!
Time to Cowtow
No that’s a climate carastrophe.
very Cowtastrophic
Perhaps it would be better to give us a specific number of these events with a plus or minus number around that.
Tom, I just wish they would get a better storm track…
Every round thing that comes off Africa….they aim right at us
..then as it gets closer…they have the “cone of death” from Rio to Maine
I get that. But they have to fill up air time with something. In any event, most of us that need to be watchful know what and when to be looking at these things that may come into play. Until then, let them have their day in the sun ….. clouds …… wind…… whatever.
Their “cone of death” is a constantly changing track and quite often the final one is 100s or even 1000s of miles off from where the first one showed the storm going. In August of 2011 they forecast the Irene hitting every single eastern seaboard state at one time or another. They started with it coming ashore right at the tip of the Florida pan handle and then went right up the coast with their “cone of death” .
http://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/irene-3.gif
The Atlantic Ace appears to be coming in this year at an all time low since 1970: https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/accumulated_cyclone_energy.asp The global ACE may be a tad higher than 2013, but it is still very, very, low https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/accumulated_cyclone_energy.asp?basin=gl
Of course, we all know that “global warming” causes “more intense storms”. Another total fail for the climate models.
Just remember: intense hurricanes/cyclones are caused by climate. Intense blizzards are just weather.
They claim that intense blizzards are global warming as well.
Yes, but as hurricanes are heat engines, it is the heat flow from tropical water to polar space that drives ACE. I always thought the doomsayers had that one backward, but how would Chicken Little scare the barnyard with a prediction that the sky would fall less hard today than it did yesterday, when we all lived through the fall of yesterday.
NOAA’s month to month forecasts for temperature and precipitation for the upper Midwest have been pretty bad the last two years, so why should I believe them?
Glad that is settled 🙂
Back in the day, you just took what She threw at ya.
You knew the odds, you made your bet, and nobody cried about the outcome.
At the beginning of the summer, NOAA forecast that the West Coast of the U.S. would be hotter than the center of the U.S. this summer. See the link below for a forecast map.
The actual weather in the U.S. has been hotter in the central U.S. than on the West Coast (the normal state of affairs), and summer is almost over, so I guess NOAA missed this forecast. Maybe they will be more accurate with their hurricane forecast.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/noaa-2016-summer-outlook-where-are-highest-chances-hot-summer-us
Not only that, but the forecasts 3 months ago with the expectations for La Niña were far stronger and colder than now. They did the same thing with the expectations for Arctic sea ice extent as well. In fact, I recall that the forecast for August was to be above the long-term normal.
Forecasting is a crap shoot business, and NOAA is mediocre at best. If they had the best product, private companies like Joe Bastardi’s wouldn’t exist.
Near-normal. Above-normal. Historically, it’s all normal.
No–none of it is “normal” because there are no norms. There are averages, and almost every day is above or below average in some respect. Here in Virginia we average a bit over a tenth of an inch per day. We can’t call that normal, and then say that a half-inch of rain is abnormal (i.e., above normal).
Why be normal?
http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=why+be+normal+image&view=detailv2&&id=CF4F2AA39FA071E668C610876F9FCF73F07676E3&selectedIndex=68&ccid=apLHAtR1&simid=607994295939891494&thid=OIP.M6a92c702d475eaca6be25d1dc8bf24d7o0&ajaxhist=0
normal: perpendicular to the plain. I have often been accused of sticking out from the crowd…
And THIS is slightly above normal:
?w=652
And this is crossroads:
https://youtu.be/becWr0vc6cA
THIS is normal:
https://www.google.at/search?q=us+town+normal&oq=us+town+normal&aqs=chrome..69i57.16466j0j4&client=ms-android-samsung&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8
Let the monkey do it this year.
When did they replace the monkey?
You need a billion monkeys pounding away at a billion computers while screaming for bananas to get the answer to our questions.
Didn’t you notice the drop-off in accuracy?
I believe the answer was “42”
I just checked and of course today on the day of the announcement there is ZERO storm activity in either the Atlantic or Pacific ocean nor is any storm expected develop in the next 48 hours. To me this looks like the quietest season so far. The rest of the season will have to be pretty intense to live up to their expectations.
There is that little thing in the Pacific Ocean : 24° N, 154° E, no name, but who knows?
Hurricane season peaks in mid September so it is still early considering that. Always keep in mind, no matter what number they settle on, it only takes one to get you.
Basically we’ll have weathered the worst by the end of October.
well since it’s expected to be the worst season since 2012 that would make it HISTORIC. So said the guy in the Napoleon hat
Then there was the guy in the Napoleon hat in 1812 with the worst season ever.
If the world were to start cooling, my understanding of how Hurricanes work would seem to indicate that we would see an increase in them due to the temperature differential between tropical and arctic regions. This increase in Hurricanes would of course be blamed on Climate Change, and they’d actually be right, but they for sure are not going to mention that it’s because the climate is cooling.
..Off Topic but….Wow, I didn’t think the U.N. could screw up Haiti any worse than they already had..boy, was I wrong !
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/08/11/amid-haiti-cholera-epidemic-un-peacekeepers-spill-sewage-and-ignore-water-treatment-says-internal-report.html
Absolutely unacceptable…
So I wasn’t particularly following CAGW in 2005 (aka Katrina). Did the CAGWers wet themselves over that season? Was that year the new norm? Any links?
Yes, Al Gore told us that this would be the new norm. However, that was also the last year that a ‘Major Hurricane’ has made landfall in the USA (Wilma made landfall in Florida Oct 24 of that year as a Cat 3 storm). This happens to be the longest period recorded with no major hurricane making landfall in the USA (now over well over 10 years, almost 11 years).
Now into the 11th year of a hurricane drought (last major one to hit US mainland was Wilma, in Oct. 2005).
They just don’t make hurricanes like they used to.
would really like to see a little more tropical activity in the gulf–getting pretty dry around this part of Texas.
Wow.
This is not a forecast. It’s a “now cast.”
And it’s not hard to say hurricane count will be higher than years since 2012 when two of those years had near record low hurricane activity – namely the last two years.
And still I think they are gonna wrong. Typically there are 2-3 tropical disturbances marching their way across from Africa on any give day in August. Right now there are NONE, and NONE expected in the next 48 hours.
see: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Summary – this is the worst case of political spin doctoring I’ve seen relative to the failed “CAGW will cause more hurricanes” meme.
Welcome to the new normal–now.
Of course they’ll be right…They do the counting.
They really shouldn’t call it a “season” if they include outlier storms such as Alex that form in January/February. It should just be 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast.
Here is Weatherbell’s forecast
(I hope Mr. Bastardi won’t mind)
http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/2016_Hurricane_Forecast_Graphic(2).jpg
Please note that it was made in May.
IIUC, Joe has said that the presently warm waters off the gulf coast and eastern seaboard are primed to ramp up smaller storms as they approach landfall.
that was the late March forecast. We updated in May so if you can put that on. We expanded threat up the east coast. Please have people read it, We are thinking the problem is late developing ( outside of MDR) storms that can deepen rapidly close to land. But this was the late March forecast, the May one was on the site under it to show folks what we changed. The KAPLAN AMO was 4th highest on record, behind major ace years lf 1998,2005,2010. We are not thinking the ace is nearly that high. Please I ask all people to read the ideas we have. The link to the latest is here http://www.weatherbell.com/final-2016-hurricane-forecast The first map that is posted here is there to compare to the change which is below. thanks
Anywhere I can find a list of:
1) what they have predicted in previous years (or projected, whatever term is acceptable this week) – and I mean their final FINAL list
2) what actually occurred
WUWT used to post a comparison of each ‘Outlook’ update and compare it to actual. I haven’t seen that type of post for several years though. It became a boring repeat every year. The ‘Outlook’ became more dire as the year progressed, until the hurricane season was almost over, then finally it would fall in line with reality.
Wikipedia – enter search Atlantic Hurricane Season. This gives each hurricane year and also what the various predictions were and storm summary for each storm
Thanks Cam. I do the same thing with my hockey pool: see how close the experts were last year. My second team is totally random, and sometimes beats the experts.
” 2) what actually occurred ” changes. and
” 1) what they have predicted in previous years ” changes.
It will be just as they predicted. I’m thinking it will always be worse than what they thought. Whether it is or not, doesn’t much matter. NOAA/NASA has lost credit-ability.
This looks like a good product and outlook. It does, however seem to be framed in a way to appear worse…”Strongest since 2012″.
The 2015 Atlantic hurricane season was a slightly below average season.
The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season was a below average season in terms of named storms, and an average season in terms of both hurricanes and major hurricanes.
The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season was a well below average Atlantic hurricane season and the first since 1994 with no major hurricanes.
The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active, tied with 1887, 1995, 2010, and 2011 for having the third-most named storms on record.
Here is the ACE index so far this year. The E/C Pacific has been the active area:
http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php
From Weather Bell
http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical/global_major_freq.png
I think this graph fully debunks the ‘increased hurricanes/cyclones’ non-sense.
NOAA used to use a 3-4 storm window for their predictions. They now use a 6-7 storm window. Sure does make it hard to be wrong when you get to make the ‘being right’ parameters as big as you want…
We”re getting into prime time. We’ll need to see quite a few storms over the next 6 weeks to have an active season.