Guest essay by Eric Worrall
A tremendous political drama with broad ramifications for Global Climate Policy is unfolding in Britain, as referendum votes are tallied for whether Britain should remain part of the European Union.
While the general consensus is the result is running neck and neck, with an almost 50:50 split in the vote, Chris Hanretty, reader in Politics at the University of East Anglia, home of the infamous Climatic Research Unit, thinks the chances of Britain voting to remain part of the EU is zero.
EU referendum rolling forecasts
03:00 Fifth forecast update
My predictions continue to be much more pessimistic for Remain than the betting markets, though they seem to be in between estimates from Michael Thrasher and JP Morgan.
Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0
(81 of 382 areas reporting.)
Predicted vote share for Remain: 47.1 percent.
(90% prediction interval: 46.1 to 48.1 percent)
Read more: https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/eu-referendum-rolling-forecasts-1a625014af55#.rv1inwb7a
The British EU referendum vote has potentially major consequences for global climate policy. Prominent greens seem to want Britain to remain part of the anti-democratic EU, because this would bind elected British politicians to continue to adhere to strong European Union green targets.
A British vote to leave might even trigger a soviet style unravelling of the entire EU – France, Holland and Italy are also preparing to hold referendums to leave the EU, if Britain votes to leave.
More to come, when the count is complete.
UPDATE (EW): Brexit is looking even more likely – other major polling organisations are predicting a victory for Britain leaving the European Union.
Sky News
http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2016/06/24/voting-continues-in-brexit-referendum.html
Guardian
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/23/eu-referendum-result-live-counting-leave-remain-brain-in-europe
etc.
UPDATE 2 (EW) – BREXIT Wins, Prime Minister David Cameron, who supported remain, resigns. If the “Brexit Contagion” spreads, this may be a fatal political blow to the hardline green policies of the European Union.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/eu-referendum-results-live-brexit-wins-as-britain-votes-to-leave/
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Congratulations Christopher Monckton. Well done.
I voted to leave the EU yesterday and I’m as surprised as anyone that the vote went the way it did. I’m not convinced it will equal any massive changes in environmental policies in the UK, at least not in the short term. Most UK politicians remain convinced that mankind is causing the climate to change, and a large number of our sitting MPs voted for the Climate Change Act 2008. Hopefully when the dust settles we might get a bit more reasoned debate.
Big respect to Nigel Farage,, head of UKIP,, for banging on about the huge pile of fertiliser which is the EU for a quarter of a century – and who finally forced David Cameron to allow this referendum.
Some pretty red-faced bookmakers this morning who thought they new EVERYTHING, but now find out they know NOTHING….
Oh – and predictions of financial Armageddon slightly overblown – sure, sterling sank from $1.50 last night (Remain factored in) to $1.32 in the early hours – has now recovered to about $1.39….
Ditto the FTSE – sank from 6200 to 5800 – but now back above 6000…
Without Nigel Farage, NONE of this would have happened.
“A small stone makes only a ripple, at first, but eventually, it will be a wave.” ~Wiegraff, Final Fantasy Tactics
One of my favorite lines. One person, willing to throw in that first small stone, CAN make all the difference.
“One person, willing to throw in that first small stone, CAN make all the difference.”
As has been proved throughout history –
Bonaparte, Christ, Einstein, Galileo, Gandhi, James Hanson, Hitler, Martin Luther, Mohamed, Emmeline Pankhurst, Louis Pasteur, Trotsky, Jethro Tull (not the pop group), George Washington, William Wilberforce, Mao Zedong; to name a few, have all made a difference …but not all for the better.
But, people in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones !!
1saveenegy:
Only an idiot would live in a glass house, and we are not idiots. People who live in homes (we have homes, not houses) made of wood and stone can throw stones all we want. Mine is stucco over steel lath…
I suspect Nigel has brick. Very good brick… Perhaps even with a few spares for throwing brick…
PM Cameron has resigned.
If Boris Johnson becomes next UK PM, the AGWers will start to get truly desperate.
Will be a sight to savour. 🙂
Andy, the sad fact is that BoJo’s Dad is a Remainer AND a Warmist. I hope that his idiocy did not get passed on to his son.
It”l be a tough job, to find a conservative in the Conservative Party.
Sound of brick striking window… at No.10 Downing…
The vote may have been about Economics and Sovereignty, but it was bad energy and immigration policy for no good reason that drove the points home.
I can’t begin to describe just how happy many of us are, here in Britain! But here’s what this forum should take note of…
THE POLITICS OF FEAR (so often used in the climate debate) DIDN’T WORK! It failed, miserably.
The climate of fear is failing in the Climate Change debate, too.
Britain votes to exit EU. A Limerick on the teakettle revolt.
Item: EU bureaucrats hold off banning high power small appliances such as electric teakettles until just after the British referendum to stay in or leave EU.
With bureaucrats wisdom uncanning;
electrical teakettles banning.
T’was the last straw for Brits,
so they did call it quits.
End EU and world order planning? https://lenbilen.com/2016/06/24/britain-votes-to-exit-eu-a-limerick-on-the-teakettle-revolt/
But then again, here in Boston tea is not quite our bag.
What still makes me laugh is that the political elite, politicians and union leaders alike, in the UK cannot even see that people are willing to pay whatever the additional costs are for our independence. I know it will have an impact on me but accept it as a necessary evil. People until today laughed at me, it will be interesting to see if that still happens. Of course one thing is that people might have to start thinking for themselves rather than go around in their “matrix world”
Interesting times ahead
Yep, me too. This will reduce house prices – my house price, but I don’t care. It is great for the young.
To all our British friends, now the hard part begins. Everything that goes wrong will be blamed on the exit vote. There will be a period of “oh no, what do we do now” and a push to reverse the decision. Stand strong, your vote is a victory for all who cherish the belief that the people have the right to determine their own destiny.
I suspect that once all is send and done and things get on with it, you will find that the economic impact of this on both Britain and what may remain of the EU is minimal at best. Trade agreements exist because people benefit. If there was benefit before, there is likely to be benefit now.
No-one knew what would happen when the UK was joined to the Common Market in 1973. No-one will know what will happen after June 23rd 2016 with regards to the UK and the EU. I suspect the UK leaving the EU will be the catalyst for the inevitable breakup of the EU. I can only thank sensible (?) UK politicians for binning the Euro and retaining Stirling. For better or worse, a choice was on offer and a decision made by ordinary people, not un-elected politicians in Belgium.
The concept of the EU was never going to work anyway IMO. Disparate currencies, politics, culture etc etc. Unlike the USA.
A genuine question. I take it most here are from the USA and seem to welcome the break up of the UK and EU. Would you also welcome a similar breakup of the USA? For example if Texas was to vote to leave the Union?
…No comparison..They EU was / is a socialist dictatorship !!
So is the US.
I would welcome the break up of the USA into a loose North American federation, with Canada and maybe the conservative-leaning northern states of Mexico.
Or keep the USA but kick out the states and counties east of the Alleghenies, as suggested by Goldwater. Plus a few other Commie enclaves around the Great Lakes, in South Florida and on the West Coast.
But the Upper Peninsula of Michigan stays! We have guns, guts and beavers. Also, a ridiculous amount of snow.
Couldn’t agree more about the UP and most of the Mitten part of the Great State of Michigan.
We were, once, a Federation…
To answer the question:
IFF it gets much worse, yes. Separation is preferable to oppression.
(I thought we made that clear in 1776…)
If we return to our limited central government roots, no.
We have representative government, so still have time to fix it. If we get a “third term of Obama”, a separation wil be highly welcomed. For now, I’m working on permanently relocating myself from California into one of the more sane States like Florida or Texas. (It is remarkably hard to clean up 30 years in the same house… er garage 🙂
My son has already left. Best friend moved to Florida about a decade back…
When this self sorting gets strong enough, or the Central Authority too authoritarian, well, that is what the 2nd Amendment is about, not murdering bambi or burglars.
I do hope for a pruning of the out of control central government, but we can survive if that fails.
Here’s my plan, FWIW, ie not much at this point:
1) The Democratic Peoples’ Republic and Socialist Workers’ Paradise of Trans-Alleghania: Everything east of the Alleghanies and north of the Potomac. Or maybe Rappahannock.
2) The DPRSWP of Erie: A swath wrapping around the Lake from Pittsburgh or Dayton to Flint, encompassing Cleveland, Ann Arbor and Detroit.
3) The DPRSWP of Upper Mississippia: From Gary to Duluth and down river to St. Louis, then up the Missouri to Kansas City, including Chicago, Milwaukee and Minneapolis-St. Paul, but excluding NE WI (Green Bay) and western MN.
4) The DPRSWP of Front Rockia. From Santa Fe to Boulder.
5) The DPRSWP of Swamplandia: southern third of the Florida.
6) The DPRSWP of Alta California: LA and environs.
7) The DPRSWP of Yerba Buena: Bay Area and Sacto.
8) The DPRSWP of Willamatta-Pugetia. From Eugene to Bellingham west of the Cascades, with apologies to the good farming folk of the Valley and SW WA.
9) The United State of America: everywhere else.
Might want to split the rump USA in two, with a theocracy in the SE and Midwest, and a libertarian Inter-mountain West.
False analogy and false logic. Go cry somewhere else.
Thanks for your considered response. The only reason I raised the analogy is that Christoper Monckton has been reported as wanting Texit.
http://dailycaller.com/2016/06/04/monckton-its-time-for-texit-texas-should-secede-thatcher-advisor-says/
He doesn’t think it’s a false analogy:
He’s entitled to his opinion on “Texit”. You are being disingenuous though, in your implication that he was comparing the US to the EU. He was only saying that the referendum was an example of what “could” be done in Texas. It would never work, of course.
California has already declared itself de facto independent — see their laws regarding firearms and nuclear-free zones and immigrant sanctuaries — as well as Colorado (marijuana), Connecticut (firearms, again), New Jersey (firearms, free speech) and many, many other states. As they say, “the center cannot hold…” Read some of what John Derbershire has written. (If you dare.)
“A genuine question. I take it most here are from the USA and seem to welcome the break up of the UK and EU. Would you also welcome a similar breakup of the USA? For example if Texas was to vote to leave the Union?”
Noone wants to see a “happy” home broken up. An unhappy home *should* be broken up.
If Texas were ever unhappy enough with the federal government, they would leave, but they are nowhere near that position, and have many alternatives when it comes to Washington DC trying to dictate to them.
No, we don’t want to see Texas leave the Union, we want everyone to be one big happy family, and so far, we are managing to have that, despite what you might see on the television.
We have a president who oversteps his Constitutional authority to a great extent, but even this hasn’t triggered much “leave” mentality. We are just going to take care of that in the next national election. The States still have their sovereignty, even under Obama, and will fair even better under a new president who doesn’t abuse his power.
Britain did not have a chance to change things with a vote, because they were governed by people at the EU the British did not vote for. That’s not the case in the USA. The USA can “vote the bums out!”, if necessary.
Britain voted to take back control of their lives. I love it!
Excellent analysis. However, I do think the “vote the bums out” sentiment is gaining a good deal of momentum in the USA. Hence the ascendance of Trump.
I would be in favor of a lot more of the government moved from the Federal level to the State level.
Agreed, but state governments are also too onerous. Much of what they do should be done at the local level or not be done by government at all.
Power should be spread as widely as possible, with the federal regime doing only what it can and should do, with the states, local government, private associations and ultimately the people doing what they do best.
The question has already been raised and resolved. The U.S. Civil War (1861 to 1865) was about succession. It is not allowed. There will be no state departures in the U.S.of A.
However your question is not even a serious one. The United States have been the United States since 1786 …. more than 200 years. And in spite of immigration issues, English is still the common language throughout the U.S. and the culture in every state is still uniquely American. Compare this to the EU: 48 years old. No common language. Significant cultural differences between members.
If you want to ask a genuine question, ask how the departure of Scotland will affect England. There you have strong common bonds.
“It is not allowed.”
Push people hard enough and they won’t give a frolic about what’s “allowed”. They’ll do it anyhow.
States may not yet be pushed hard enough to openly rebel or seek neo-secession, but the American Far Left is sure trying it’s best to drive us apart. Our common cultural bonds are starting to fray after years of abuse from The Bullies Who Say Bigot and their allies in the courts (some of whom are also part of The Draconians Who Say Denier).
Dear Bellman,
No. We view the United States of America as a single nation, not as a group of nations.
Each state has sovereignty within its borders, but, if Abraham Lincoln’s wisdom taught us anything, the Union must be preserved above all else (he did not promote emancipation of slaves for a long time, much to the anger of many on his own side — for the nation was not ready to go that far, just preserve the Union), for, (from the American Revolution)
United we stand, divided we fall. Let us not split into factions which must destroy that union upon which our existence hangs. Patrick Henry, 1799).
It is hard to convey, I think (from what I’ve read on this site from British trying hard to understand Americans’ deep love of their country), but we see ourselves (most of us) as Americans first. Our loyalty to our state of residence does not strike nearly as deeply into our hearts. Texas may be an exception (the exception which proves the rule, in my opinion).
We see the United Kingdom (or, “England,” lol, as we often call it, heh) as a sovereign nation, not a member of the EU. The EU was a coalition (I say was, for I am convinced it is going to crumble) of the reluctant (to paraphrase Tony Blair, v. a v. the Iraq war).
We see this as the UK getting FREE of statism and a sickeningly inept, ignorant, and avaricious, bureaucracy.
So, hip, hip, hurrah! 🙂
Janice the American
P.S. Irving Berlin’s “God, Bless America” with its “… land that I love…” captures the spirit we Americans imagine you British to feel for your own country. And “The Star Spangled Banner,” with its “… our flag was still there…” captures the feeling we Americans imagine you British have for your Union Jack. Music can help you understand our heart, I think. And all those soldiers over the centuries who have fought to keep Great Britain free from foreign domination…. we imagine you to want to honor their sacrifice for your liberties.
Bottom line: We are so happy for you, for your LIBERTY!
Bellman, a good part of our problems will be solved when (not if) the San Andreas fault finally discards Kalifornia into the dark abyss. (Sorry to our host in Chico)
Tom:
I grew up near Chico. The Central Valley of California has tried a few times to leave the liberal grip of San Francisco & LA. While the coastal megacities are Progressive Left, the inland working rural areas are strongly consevative. Oddly, the San Andreas does mostly mark the divide….
I would vote 100% for a coastal vs inland split into two States, but the prior initiatives have been N vs S and missed the reality…
IMO, four or five states would be better.
1) The State of Jefferson in the north, 2) The State of North California in the Central Valley, 3) the State of West California in the Bay Area and Sacramento, 4) the State of South California in Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo Counties, and 5) the State of East California in Inyo, Orange, San Bernardino, Riverside, Imperial and San Diego Counties
@Gabro:
Works for me… just make sure the rural parts of counties dominated by a remote urban core area are split appropriately. San Bernardino, for example, toss the city to L.A….
Though I could see an Alpine California of Cascades and Sierra Nevada counties…
EM,
That would work, but you’d have to venture into the Valley conveniently to go from north to south in the Cascadia-Sierran state.
Agree about the urban areas of San Bernardino and Riverside Counties. And maybe give Imperial County to Mexico.
Eff the E U!
“But this time the establishment consensus coincided with a historic loss of faith in the experts. These were the people who failed to predict the Credit Crunch, who missed the greatest economic disaster to hit us since the Great Depression. And we were supposed to believe them? Slowly the consensus came to resemble not just a conspiracy but, worse, a confederacy of dunces.” – Tim Stanley UK Telegraph
I continue to hope that people come to their senses about the “settled science” of today. A “confederacy of dunces” is mild compared to what I would call it. Modern day Lysenkoism in drag is about the kindest thing I can think of.
I love the smell of freedom in the morning! And the blow to Climatism and the Green Blob is icing on the cake.
I heard some whining this morning on NPR, that this was a complex issue, and that there were a lot of people voting who normally don’t vote, who may not have fully understood it. How patronizing and hypocritical. Had the vote gone the other way, they would have been singing its praises, and about how “sensible” the voters were.
WOO HOO!!!! You go UK!!!! Good on you.
I agree with you Bruce.I listen to NPR, etc and have trouble finding opposing views. Thank god for this site!
A great write up this morning at The Conservative Treehouse.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/06/24/the-peasants-are-revolting-disconnected-political-institutions-meet-their-monster-voters/
Meanwhile here in the US, Wall Street is about to throw a hissy fit. Big buying opportunity for those ready to pounce. It will be back up again in no time.
I’m predicting significant global cooling now that the hot air and rhetoric has come to an end.
The UK has voted that democratic accountability is prized over economic security.
This is the end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end.
I am happy for England. The EU had become the EUSSR and unelected bureaucrats had become England’s government.
Prior to the Soviet meltdown, the only way a country could leave the USSR was to go to war with Russia. Here we had a peaceful separation, and the better for everyone.
EU greenies were on their way to control all energy production and end use in Europe, and it made me sick to think of electrical power outages and lack of heat for people – all to please some EU greenie.
The curtain has come down on that act, and the Italiano and the Dansk are probably thinking the same thing right now
“Here we had a peaceful separation”
Peaceful? The globalist mafia wants to make it as painful as possible. They say:
“This will not be an consensual divorce.”
The way is see it, UK should leave the domicile without a divorce: begin ignoring the EU power and regulation.
To take the higher ground, you have to be a stronger bully!
“simple-touriste June 24, 2016 at 10:59 pm
The way is see it, UK should leave the domicile without a divorce: begin ignoring the EU power and regulation.”
You mean taking the French approach to their EU masters? I don’t see that happening, but I can only wish my British “leaders” had the fortitude to tell the EUcrats (Crat = ruling elite) where to go.
Congratulations to my British cousins. You have voted to keep your sovereignty and maintain your identity. Sensible energy policy is sure to follow.
..Tom in Florida
To all our British friends, now the hard part begins. Everything that goes wrong will be blamed on the exit vote. ….
Don’t worry about that. A number of EU decisions which the Brits wouldn’t like have been delayed so as not to influence the vote. They will now be announced over the next few weeks.One was to create an EU Armed Forces. The Brits won’t like that. Another was to cut power for all domestic devices to 1/3 of present. This includes KETTLES.
Have you seen what happens when the Brits are forced to wait an extra 10 minutes for a cup of tea?
Sheesh! Good thing they got off that sinking ship. They keep torpedoing themselves!
It still requires the same amount of energy to boil a pint of water so why lower power kettles? ie less power for longer so I assume related to gree energy sources.
You get between an Englishman and his Darjeeling at your peril. I’d liken it to being between a Klingon and his blood wine.
I am British by birth and I also lived in Ireland and Belgium and I never EVER heard of English or Irish breakfast tea until I migrated downunder to New Zealand and Australia. To me, it’s just tea. The Chinese can have their opium.
I will now apply to re-join the Conservative party and cast my vote in due course for the next leader. A GREAT DAY. Maybe we can ditch the crazy green policies of the last 20 years — see GWPF ad infinitum.
Michael Oxenham
The Climate Change Act had nothing to do with the EU. It was all self-inflicted.
from wiki (sorry)
Ed Miliband’s 2008 Climate Change Bill was preceded by a Private Member’s Bill of the same name[13] drafted by Friends of the Earth and brought before Parliament on 7 April 2005.
Wiki, credible source? LOL
Patrick MJD commented: “..The Climate Change Act had nothing to do with the EU. It was all self-inflicted….”
So you don’t see the EU as an artifice of the UN?
Patrick,
The figures of the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution were based on the EU Council of Ministers’ June 1996 decision to limit emissions to 550 ppm, contained in their Community Strategy on Climate Change. This, in turn, was based on the UN’s 1995 IPCC Second Assessment Report, which first mentioned an alleged connection between 550 ppm and 2 °C temperature increase.
So while Parliament and the Labour government were responsible for the Act, its target came from the EU and UN.
Patrick, as you don’t like wiki … wade through this lot !!
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2008/27/contents
http://services.parliament.uk/bills/2007-08/climatechangehl.html
or this simplified text –
http://euanmearns.com/the-origins-of-the-2008-uk-climate-change-act/
The UK 2008 Climate Change Act was seen as a vote catcher by our glorious leaders who desperately tried to show they were greener than the greenest greens & then shagged the UK’s energy security at the stroke of a pen.
I’ve been looking at buying another car lately. That 2017 Jaguar sure does look nice.
One noticeable observation was how similar the propaganda with the remain camp was so like the climate alarmists. Everything bad and blaming everything including the kitchen sink that will be worse off if they don’t have their own way. No facts to back any of them up of course, just assumptions. Can you believe even the cause of world war 3 was mentioned if UK didn’t remain. The pound did drop sharply one the first day due to the propaganda scare tactics, but like in climate this is just one weather event and the long term will be different.
Study history, indeed.
Would you folks on the other side of the pond be open to some sort of arrangement within NAFTA? I’ve often thought that might help mitigate the cost, if you leave the EEEuuuu!
Of course, the pink pony we have in the White House right now wouldn’t make the offer. His free trade bona fides are good, but I don’t think he likes you folks.