Guest essay by Eric Worrall
A tremendous political drama with broad ramifications for Global Climate Policy is unfolding in Britain, as referendum votes are tallied for whether Britain should remain part of the European Union.
While the general consensus is the result is running neck and neck, with an almost 50:50 split in the vote, Chris Hanretty, reader in Politics at the University of East Anglia, home of the infamous Climatic Research Unit, thinks the chances of Britain voting to remain part of the EU is zero.
EU referendum rolling forecasts
03:00 Fifth forecast update
My predictions continue to be much more pessimistic for Remain than the betting markets, though they seem to be in between estimates from Michael Thrasher and JP Morgan.
Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0
(81 of 382 areas reporting.)
Predicted vote share for Remain: 47.1 percent.
(90% prediction interval: 46.1 to 48.1 percent)
Read more: https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/eu-referendum-rolling-forecasts-1a625014af55#.rv1inwb7a
The British EU referendum vote has potentially major consequences for global climate policy. Prominent greens seem to want Britain to remain part of the anti-democratic EU, because this would bind elected British politicians to continue to adhere to strong European Union green targets.
A British vote to leave might even trigger a soviet style unravelling of the entire EU – France, Holland and Italy are also preparing to hold referendums to leave the EU, if Britain votes to leave.
More to come, when the count is complete.
UPDATE (EW): Brexit is looking even more likely – other major polling organisations are predicting a victory for Britain leaving the European Union.
Sky News
http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2016/06/24/voting-continues-in-brexit-referendum.html
Guardian
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/23/eu-referendum-result-live-counting-leave-remain-brain-in-europe
etc.
UPDATE 2 (EW) – BREXIT Wins, Prime Minister David Cameron, who supported remain, resigns. If the “Brexit Contagion” spreads, this may be a fatal political blow to the hardline green policies of the European Union.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/eu-referendum-results-live-brexit-wins-as-britain-votes-to-leave/
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Please note that the battle is not over yet.
A Cameron resignation is the next shot in the barrel to keep the UK in the EU.
The politics goes:
1 – Vote OUT.
2 – Government resigns
3 – General Election, fought with all parties having a manifesto to stay in, except UKIP
4 – Highly unlikely UKIP will win, so the general election will supersede the referendum…
“3 – General Election, fought with all parties having a manifesto to stay in, except UKIP”
It’s unlikely the conservative party will decide to back “in.” If it does, it will split the party and nearly half of it will defect to UKIP.
“A Cameron resignation is the next shot in the barrel ”
DONE !!!
AGW is now oficially terminated. Trumpo will win in the USA the people have spoken and have had enough from small PC minorities. The greens are finished as is the EU. Europe will function much better with each country independent.
If only it were so easy Eliza 🙁
Let’s hope so, let’s hope so…..
Its a great day to be British.
Feel exhausted after staying up all night but absolutely elated.
From where I’m sitting I would be shitting my pants if I was Hillary ?
One does wonder whether this pre-sages the downtrodden Americans from Main Street sticking 200 nukes up the backsides of all the US Establishment ‘experts’ in November??
One can only hope so.
http://www.britannia.com/history/docs/kipling.html
‘You musn’t sell, delay, deny,
A freeman’s right or liberty.
It wakes the stubborn Englishry,
We saw ’em roused at Runnymede!
Good to see the blood of the stubborn Englishry still runs through their descendants’ veins.
Cold and wet here. But a GOOD day.
The University of East Anglia is Colonel Klink from Hogan’s Heroes – always confidently wrong. If you don’t know what is right, just do the opposite of what UEA advises and you will be good. This works for Brexit, climate, scientific inquiry, and social policy.
Out of 190 odd nations only 28 (soon 27) are in the EU. None of the English speaking nations are in the EU. None of the British Commonwealth nations are in the EU. Great Britain is the 5th largest economy in the world. The only EU Country above us is Germany. Greece,Italy, Portugal, Spain and France are in decline. India, China, the USA, who we are now able to trade with as we wish are in ascendance. We are a NATO country, the second largest contributor. We are in the G10 and G7.
What we need now is Churchillian Leadership to throw off the shackles of a corrupt despotic organisation that has increasingly relied on Soviet style diktats to suppress the Greeks, the Spanish and the Portuguese and establish an unelected Commisariat in Brussels and Strasbourg.
My only reservation is that we will not find such a leader. The current crop of Politicians look like the audience of the Wheel of Fortune.
+10, Ivor. Well said.
At my wife’s request, I have been a part of the Wheel of Fortune audience. Sir, I object to being compared to politicians!
Wheel of Fortune…
http://65.media.tumblr.com/4979592c4892159acf95dc31c2cd36f0/tumblr_o8p8qvrM0T1ty9rczo1_500.jpg
LOVE IT. +1!
‘A British vote to leave might even trigger a soviet style unravelling of the entire EU – France, Holland and Italy are also preparing to hold referendums to leave the EU, if Britain votes to leave.’
The British do the problematic stuck building EU a great service – The normal conflict centralism / federalism .
The geographical construct within the exterior boundaries should be managed centrally.
But:
The circumstances of individual countries must be considered. And there can be no veto right for each State . This had to be shown the recalcitrant bureaucrats .
Well done, UK!
“Free at last, free at last, thank God almighty, free at last” Somebody [/s] once said that: it applies to our UK’s Independence Day!!
(Sorry, Dodgy, I hadn’t seen you post the same up above. Great minds, eh?) 🙂
Hi, Harry Passfield,
Here is your fine quote’s author, Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. I Have a Dream (1963)
(youtube)
{2:44} …free at last, free at last! Thank God Almighty, we are free at last!
Congratulations to you, over there in England!
Janice
Thanks for the video, Janice. You must know I knew it was King, but part of the sarc in my post was that the “somebody once said that” – or – “somebody said that once” is homage to Dylan.
Dear Harry,
You’re welcome. No, I’m afraid I DID think you had momentarily forgotten. Ooops. I thought the ” /s” thing was a typo! Just did not get the sarc/Dylan allusion — at — all. Thanks for taking the time to explain.
Janice
Janice: I checked the lyric (Dylan). It just gets better:
“Talkin’ World War III Blues”
I believe that despite the bureaucratic problems of leaving, it is the best choice – for one reason.
When you get energy policy completely wrong like the EU has, almost nothing else that you do really matters.
Cheap abundant reliable energy is the lifeblood of society – it IS that simple.
When misinformed politicians fool with energy systems, innocent people suffer and die.
So true. …
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/02/27/exxon-stands-up-to-the-green-bullies/comment-page-1/#comment-2154602
On Energy:
I have worked in the energy industry for much of my career.
When challenged on the global warming question by green fanatics, I explain that that fossil fuels keep their families from freezing and starving to death.
Cheap abundant reliable energy is the lifeblood of society – it IS that simple.
Furthermore, I suggest that recognition of this reality is an ethical and a professional obligation.
The following numbers are from the 2015 BP Statistical Review of World Energy, for the year 2014:
http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-2015/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2015-primary-energy-section.pdf
Global Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel is 86% Fossil Fuel (Oil, Coal and Natural Gas),
4% Nuclear,
7% Hydro,
and 2% Renewables.
That 2% for Renewables is vastly exaggerated, and would be less than 1% if intermittent wind and solar power were not forced into the electrical grid ahead of cheaper and more reliable conventional power.
This is not news – we have known this energy reality for decades. As we published in 2002.
“The ultimate agenda of pro-Kyoto advocates is to eliminate fossil fuels, but this would result in a catastrophic shortfall in global energy supply – the wasteful, inefficient energy solutions proposed by Kyoto advocates simply cannot replace fossil fuels.”
On Grid-Connected Wind and Solar Power:
Wind Power is what warmists typically embrace – trillions of dollars have been squandered on worthless grid-connected wind power schemes that require life-of-project subsidies and drive up energy costs.
Some background on grid-connected wind power schemes:
The Capacity Factor of wind power is typically a bit over 20%, but that is NOT the relevant factor.
The real truth is told by the Substitution Capacity, which is dropping to as low as 4% in Germany – that is the amount of conventional generation that can be permanently retired when wind power is installed into the grid.
The E.ON Netz Wind Report 2005 is an informative document:
http://www.wind-watch.org/documents/wp-content/uploads/eonwindreport2005.pdf
(apparently no longer available from E.ON Netz website).
Figure 6 says Wind Power is too intermittent (and needs almost 100% spinning backup);
and
Figure 7 says it just gets worse and worse the more Wind Power you add to the grid (see Substitution Capacity dropping from 8% to 4%).
The same story applies to grid-connected Solar Power (both in the absence of a “Super-Battery”).
This was obvious to us decades ago.
Trillions of dollars have been squandered globally on green energy that is not green and produces little useful energy.
On Global Warming Alarmism:
We also write in the same 2002 article, prior to recognition that the current ~20 year “Pause” (actually a Plateau) was already underway:
“Climate science does not support the theory of catastrophic human-made global warming – the alleged warming crisis does not exist.”
I (we) now think global cooling will commence after the current El Nino runs its course, prior to 2020 and possibly as soon as 2017. Bundle up!
Regards to all, Allan
I stated above: “When misinformed politicians fool with energy systems, innocent people suffer and die.”
In the four winter months (Dec-Mar) of 2012-13, the United Kingdom had about 50,000 Excess Winter Deaths. The USA, a country with FIVE TIMES the population of the UK, has about 100,000 Excess Winter Deaths in a typical winter.
This and other statistics indicate that the UK typically has many more Excess Winter Deaths per capita than the USA, Canada and the Scandinavian countries. This high winter death rate in the UK is caused by high energy costs and failure to adapt to winter (poor home insulation, etc.).
Prematurely killing off the elderly and the poor helps to cut the government’s deficit, but perhaps there are better ways to save money – such as killing off all subsidies to worthless grid-connected wind and solar power.
*******
Reference:
Cold Weather Kills 20 Times as Many People as Hot Weather
By Joseph D’Aleo and Allan MacRae
September 4, 2015
https://friendsofsciencecalgary.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/cold-weather-kills-macrae-daleo-4sept2015-final.pdf
The paralyzing decision congestion in the EU is finally broken , the other part states will be able to renegotiate what doesn’t suit their circumstances .
The reaction to Brexit in the financial markets is completely rediculous, crazy, reminds me of the 2008 financial collapse and before. This, however, could be the catalyst that breaks up the EU zone. Look for rumblings from the the Dutch, the Danes and the Italians IMO.
However, the implications of this are far reaching, much father than supporters seem to have considered. Employment law, health law, industrial law, immigration law you name it, the EU has had some input. There are many laws created in the EU zone and applied to the UK that will need to be repealed. There are many migrants from other EU countries living in Britain. There are many Britons who live in other countries in the EU zone. Passports and visas to be revoked.
In any case, article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty gives “negotiators”up to 2 years to reach an “agreement”. If no agreement is reached, the UK is, automatically, removed.
The markets are reacting to uncertainty. Things will settle down soon because there is no underlying economic reason for immediate panic. It’s all psychology and computer trading.
Here in the US, durable goods orders for May were released this morning. Down 2.2 %, vs .5 % expected.
Couple that with recent jobs data, and may already be falling into recession. This is just one more kick in that direction.
If a recession materializes it will be nearly impossible for the Democrats to win the White House in November.
However, the implications of this are far reaching, much father than supporters seem to have considered. Employment law, health law, industrial law, immigration law you name it, the EU has had some input. There are many laws created in the EU zone and applied to the UK that will need to be repealed.
There’s no hurry; here’s what happened when India became independent:
… while independence was declared in India in 1948, a law review commission was not set up until 1955 and, so leisurely did it proceed that there are still laws on the Indian statute book that originated in Westminster.
Above extract from: http://eureferendum.com/
There are other examples:
Similarly, of Poland, although the collapse of the Soviet empire occurred in 1989, the Constitutional Tribunal did not make its ruling until 1995.
Same source as previous example.
These bureaucrats were law- Post of lobbyists . When they were asked : ‘ well , we do not know what the people want . ‘ Now they know – and groan under the load .
And I will add this, when Ted Heath took the UK in to the “Common Market” on January 1st 1973, as it was called then, he did so without a mandate “from the people” election time. There was a referendum in 1974, but the damage was done. Britons voted to stay. That decision pretty much destroyed the export economy of New Zealand in one hit.
Cameron committed political suicide by leading the “Remain” program.
Looking forward to a secession referendum in at at least one State of the US, during the next decade …… Plenty of reasons coming up.
I have seen all of the dire predictions, and they are no more credible than a 200 foot sea level rise in 20 years.
This is the best thing to happen in decades, and will reverberate for another few years yet. I’m thrilled for the UK, yes even the “remainers”, as they will soon realize that “leave” wasn’t a bad choice after all.
I have a new anthem for the European Union. It goes like this “28 green bottles sitting on a wall and if one green bottle should accidently fall there’ll be 27 green bottles sitting on the wall. 27 green bottles………..”
This may set off another financial crisis, but only because Europe’s banks are so precariously over-leveraged that any shock could collapse them. I think this is what Mr. Market is worried about–and rightly so. I think this concern is the hidden, unspeakable reason so many establishment figures backed Remain. They still can’t mention it, because doing so could be the peddle that starts an avalanche, from the intangible factor of loss of confidence.
That loss of confidence is showing in the steep rise in, among other things, gold and Bitcoin since the vote.
The UK will be blamed, unfairly, for this.
pebble
Freedom is worth it. Real freedom, not the climate consensus sort of freedom. Congratulations to the people of Britain. They have voted for freedom. Now what will they make of it?
Nicola Sturgeon has two slogans ready made for her:
Take back control
Independence Day
Both of which Donald Trump seems to approve of.
Mark Steyn has begun to gloat:
http://www.steynonline.com/7546/steyn-was-right-and-i-was-wrong-cont
Excellent, Roger, thanks! 🙂
Interesting times indeed. Be careful what you wish for, it might just happen.
EU referendum result: Sinn Fein’s Martin McGuinness calls for border poll on united Ireland after Brexit
Brexit: Nicola Sturgeon says second Scottish independence vote ‘highly likely’
Of those the former might well be more problematic for the UK, a million British Ulster Unionist citizens heading to England possibly starting today? Scotland may raise some interesting discussions within the UK and EU, before leaving or even creating a federal UK, that’d be a turn-up for the books.
Scotland can rely on their wind turbines,
England on gas and coal.
Have fun, Scotland. 😉
North sea oil, production declining.
Actually they have been discussing Scotland and Northern Ireland at length on new reports from UK and it seems.
1.) Both countries must be given the right for an independence vote by the UK parliament. The UK granted this years vote which was lost but it isn’t clear what the political fallout would be if they refused the rights.
2.) The UK is both countries major trading partner by massive amounts and they have nothing to gain from joining the EU. The fees from the EU would cripple both small countries the UK current fees to the EU is somewhere around 12 Billion pounds last year. As both countries have less trade it would be lower than that but as a guide Norway’s contribution for access to the EU market is 6 Billion Euro per year.
3.) The exit does not have to be immediate the UK can chose the time and it can’t be thrown out by the EU so long as it keeps paying it’s fees. The use of article 50 is solely on the British time they select to do it the EU can not dictate that.
Interesting indeed the UK actually has a quite strong position thanks to some of the clauses it fought for a long way back when it entered the EU 48 years ago.
LdB says : “.. Norway’s contribution for access to the EU market is 6 billion Euro per year”.
First of all, Norway does not pay for the “access to the market”. We pay to different funds and programs including education, science programs, common border control etc were we also participate (and get something back for the money). The total amount is 391 million Euro per year (for the period 2014 to 2021)
Øystein, Norway
His predictions were far better than their climate work, maybe they should run their numbers by him.
This vote is going to normalize Leave or cut-back sentiment in many European countries. It will open the Overton window and make the matter more respectable. That in turn will increase its vote-share.
Those who want the EU to persist should immediately undertake big reforms, starting with such no-brainers as cutting EU employees’ salaries & perks and installing a strong inspector generals’ office to root out corruption.
Even then they could not be trusted. The rot would creep back in, indeed it would always be just below the surface. Gang-green is gangrene. It has to be lopped off completely.
What you ask, cutting EU salaries, perks, installing IGs, etc. is like expecting US Congressmen to cut back on their salary and perks of their position. They control their own salaries and perks. At least US Congressmen are restrained by the fact they can get voted out. An EU bureaucrat has no threat of someone above him throwing him out.
The only solution forward is to let the institution crumble, and start over on something different. Sometimes, a house really is too badly built and diseased to repair. Just tear it down, toss out the worm and termite damage, and build anew with lessons learned about accountability and human nature. And most of all, Set up governing structures that require policy to be evaluated on outcome, not on intent.
The EU had been captured by special interests and has not been working for more than 20 years. French farmers, the greens, green energy, socialist zealots.
There are rules for everything which are actually designed to stop free trade and support some “movement” which gained power in the EU bureaucracy.
An accurate description. The EU is almost designed as a platform for special interests (like unions) rather than general interests. Free trade in a kind, but in the end it stopped being about free trade but rather about uniform legal obstacles. Harmonization instead of liberty.
It would have helped the Euro Nationalists if they actually identified themselves clearly as nationalists and Euro patriotic rather than pushing vigorously some series of left wing stuff starting from pro-Isl*m and pro-P*lestine ending to prof*minism and prog*y. Progressive rock is OK, progressiveness in terms of sharing your tax money in their pet projects is really not.
And to make sure everyone understands: I’m not for misog*nism, bullying g*ys, or for sinking refuge3s in the Mediterranean. I’m against gunmen, slavetrade, and spoiling environment. It is all about how to do things, not about whether to do things.