Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Good news – we’re finally about to hit a tipping point. The only problem is, nobody will be able to tell the difference.
Climate change ‘tipping point’ could be reached in four weeks
6.6.16 is almost the devil’s number, but it might be much more than that if a leading scientist’s prediction on climate change is correct.
CSIRO fellow Dr Paul Fraser has earmarked June 6 (“plus or minus a week”) as the day when carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere will hit the point of no return, 400 parts per million (ppm).
The atmospheric measuring station at Cape Grim in Tasmania has recorded the current C02 levels in the atmosphere at 399.9ppm.
Dr Fraser said the difference between 399 and 400ppm was trivial, but when it does hit 400ppm mark it would be a “psychological tipping point”.
“Once it reaches 400ppm at Cape Grim it’s very unlikely to drop below 400 again,” Dr Fraser told ninemsn.
…
Cape Grim’s stable environment offers a clearer forecast for the world’s climate change.
“When you get away from the cities and into the background air, that’s the one that really drives climate change, that’s in terms of representing the entire globe,” Dr Fraser said.
To put the 400ppm into perspective, Dr Fraser said if you stood near a highway with cars going past, you could be hit with 500ppm of CO2.
At the higher end of the scale, a smoggy day in the densely polluted cities of Beijing or Shanghai could see carbon figures as high as 600ppm to 700ppm.
When 400ppm becomes the norm in country air, the cities will feel the pain a whole lot more.
The part the authors leave out, with all this talk of “cities in pain”, is that 400ppm CO2 will have no noticeable health impact on people. According to US government documents, navy personnel in charge of US submarines, including nuclear submarines charged with delivering the final response to a nuclear first strike, typically live for months on end at an average CO2 level of 3500ppm, ranging up to 11,300ppm. If 400ppm had any health impact whatsoever – how could sick people be trusted to be in charge of nuclear weapons, at CO2 levels an order of magnitude higher than normal air?
I know its easy to poke fun at climate scientists, for their endlessly embarrassing pronouncements of impending doom which never manifest, but at least the scientists who make such outrageously wrong predictions show real commitment to their ideas. Calling this non event a “tipping point” trivialises the drama of all those other efforts to entertain us.
Didn’t those folks at that to-do in Paris promise that if I like my temperature, I can keep my temperature, just like that Barrackk character up north somewheres….
I just figured it out: 6-6-16 is a formula for a fertilizer mix, and the 16 is for the percentage of BS.
So in other words, these Ivory tower climate scientists are saying that when CO2 is low humans prosper and when CO2 is high humans die off. Which paleoarcheologist would agree with that one????
It is not required to make sense. These are REAL sicentists we’re talking about here.
that was supposed to be scientists, although it may make no difference.
The bigger problem for these AGW “scientists” is their psychological trauma….that they will not be able to see or experience the ppm decrease in their life time in any way possible even when actually if they really rely in the proper scientific method they could “see” and to a degree “experience” beyond their expiry date and realize that at some point the ppm will drop naturally as it increased naturally……….but that sadly enough will require a departure from their firm and indisputable belief in the AGW and the anthropogenic forcing effect………
It is really a big problem, psychologically, for any scientist when trying to play as a priest and vice versa……
No wonder why quite a few of them behaving like loonies (whole range :)) lately and more often than not……
cheers
Or if the level of co2 levels of at 420 ppm. ( despite the increased use of fossil fuels) OMG what will they do!!?
Peek ridicule?
That’s way off yet.
That’s 190 in hex . Doesn’t sound so special .
Willis’s analysis on WUWT a few weeks ago stated that, even if ALL the fossil fuels in the world (according to IPCC figures and using the Bern model to calculate re-absorption) were burnt this century, CO2 levels would only rise to between 450 ppm and 650ppm by the end of the century. CO2 levels would begin to fall in the next century (there being no more oil, gas, coal to burn); with a half life of approx 30 years, CO2 should be down below 400 ppm by mid next century, even from the highest levels, never to go up again as a result of man’s actions.
but, we’re just not doing our part –
http://www.utilitydive.com/news/eia-energy-related-carbon-dioxide-emissions-declined-12-in-2015/418910/
Everyone should plant a tree in celebration.
6.6.16 will not be a tipping point. We will be in-transit for the annual visit to the homeland, and I will be resting the ole liver. It will be hard enough keeping up with the tipping with my reprobate cousins in Zurich and Bavaria, not to mention the 3-bottles-of-wine-with-dinner at my wife’s family down in Geneva, (for those of you unfamiliar with the practice, it’s one bottle before, one bottle during, and one bottle after).
That’s why I live in Geneva, Mark!! The wine practice you describe helps me overlook the fact that my compatriots have drunk the global warming coolaid like the rest of Europe. When I installed a heated jacuzzi, the authorities made it expressly conditional on agreeing to switch to “GREEN” electricity (which is not at all green, just grossly more expensive!!)
From Dr. Ole Humlum’s website-
http://www.climate4you.com/
Mauna Loa CO2 v. HadCrut temperatures since 1960:
http://www.climate4you.com/images/HadCRUT4%20GlobalMonthlyTempSince1958%20AndCO2.gif
The website contains a wealth of useful climate data.
Just saying…
Duh!
Message, ever so simple, was still garbled .
So again:
“Have you noticed that nobody cares about your post?
Just saying…”
Is it clear now?
The original data they deleted showed a much steeper cooling curve in the 60s and 70s.
GISS completely wipes it out
on Giss the 1930a 40s warming and the cooling thereafter were both significant. It’s now a flat trend from 1940 to 1978\79
Also NOAA have ice data pre 1979
http://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PaintImage142.png
and GISS starts their record in 1880, a la nina after the 1877\78 El Nino.
Such cheeky cheaters.
Nice cherry pick, that Ed Hawkins fancy gif actually highlighted
Start in La Nina and flattens the curve to match CO2 growth (getting rid of the blip Climate gate)
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A.gif
Nick Stokes likes starting with La Nina’s and ending at El Ninos too. Must be a thing with these guys lol
..Liberals are still trying to create the perfect Human ! Not sure where I stand on this issue..
..Lots of quality input from WUWT readers would be interesting ..Of course, if this is possible, it would destroy the Creationists argument that life cannot come from nothing !
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2016/05/14/harvards-secret-meeting-on-synthetic-human-genome-fuels-debate.html?intcmp=hpbt3
Ironically Astrophysicists repeatedly safe life came from nothing when the big bang happened, in fact they say everything came from nothing, see science is not so void of religion as you might think.
As long as there is the same amount of matter as anti-matter in the universe then it all adds up to exactly nothing.
then it all adds up to exactly nothing.
================
how about mass? are you saying that anti-particles have negative mass? that they weight less than nothing?
Ferd, nope, after the bright flash there will be nothing (except maybe some neutrinos?).
In particle physics, antimatter is a material composed of antiparticles, which have the same mass as particles of ordinary matter but opposite charges, as well as other particle properties such as lepton and baryon numbers. Collisions between particles and antiparticles lead to the annihilation of both, giving rise to variable proportions of intense photons (gamma rays), neutrinos, and less massive particle–antiparticle pairs. The total consequence of annihilation is a release of energy available for work, proportional to the total matter and antimatter mass, in accord with the mass–energy equivalence equation, E = mc².
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antimatter
The big bang is creation dude, it was cooked up by a priest “creation out of nothing”
Since I have spent 4yrs of my life underwater on submarines does this mean I can sue the US Government for endangering my life?
only if you were denied your preferred bathroom …
I am reasonably sure he preferred the one at home.
this tipping point is propaganda – not science – an attempt to create a sense of urgency – however – that could backfire – when the tipping point is exceeded and nothing dramatic happens – it becomes just a number – like turning 40
For me, more like the ‘four-minute mile’…
Well here’s some good news.
The renowned climate scientist, Prince Charles, issued a “100 month tipping point in 2009.
Didn’t happen.
So in 2015 he extended it another 35 years. http://www.climatedepot.com/2015/07/28/prince-charles-gives-world-reprieve-on-global-warming-extends-100-month-tipping-point-to-35-more-years/
This is the kind of thinking that gets you promoted head of state for 90 million people in the 21st century.
Population of the UK is currently estimated at 65, 061,260 by Worldometers. Though the site does not say if that is as of 1 Jan or today. But it is definitely not 90 million.
At least the yanks can vote their idiot head of state out, we Brits have ours imposed for life !!
400ppm is only a psychological tipping point for those who need serious psychological help.
Exactly, it’s psychological, afflicts those who are more psycho than logical!
Well that’s it then. The science is settled, the tipping point is here, irreversible warming is on us, and we’re all going to die.
A big thank you to all the dedicated Climate Scientists for your work. You can all go home now and save your governments a load of cash, that they can use for something else. Like health care, education, beefing up defence forces, things that will make our last years on earth more tolerable.
For a scientist he has not got a clue, houses quite often have rooms up to 2000ppm, most health and safety regs say 5000ppm is a working limit with up to 35000ppm for short periods (15 minutes).
Very sad to think that they are teaching our young.
I agree.
“The researchers noted that typical carbon dioxide concentrations outside are approximately 380 parts per million, while inside office buildings, the concentrations usually aren’t any higher than 1,000 parts per million. However, in classrooms, researchers found that carbon dioxide concentrations can go be as high as 3,000 parts per million, or more. (Federal occupational exposure guidelines for carbon dioxide concentrations are 5,000 parts per million for eight hours.)”
huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/25/carbon-dioxide-decision-making-meeting-rooms-classrooms_n_2006289.html
With co2 levels so high, shouldn’t there be a greenhouse effect and there would be no need to heat those places? And in a closed area too! Not like an open atmosphere where it could be debatable whether the heat is retained or not.
This bit from the remarkable Dr. Fraser seems to be confused-
“At the higher end of the scale, a smoggy day in the densely polluted cities of Beijing or Shanghai could see carbon figures as high as 600ppm to 700ppm.”
Everyone who works in an office, school, store, etc. experiences much higher CO2 concentrations every day, even in the cleanest-of-the-clean cities of the world.
CO2 is not carbon.
Smog and CO2 are separate issues. Mashing them up in a sentence is silly.
Actually, I’m more concerned about Guam. Has Guam reached its tipping point yet? I’d hate to see it “tip over and capsize” from housing too many Marines.
403
..That comment from a liberal Senator clearly showed that some people should not be allowed to vote !
It was April 1, 2010, and Congressman Hank Johnson (D-Ga).
We skeptics have known it for years, and now the climageddonists are finally admitting it; their climate fears are all just in their heads! And now, with 400 ppm they have reached their “psychological tipping point”. Their CO2-obsessed irrational fears will now be sending hoards of them into psychiatric treatment and group therapy sessions. It will be a veritable bonanza for the mental health industry.
Of course Dr Fraser tries to link CO2 to smoggy days and dense pollution. Totally deceitful.
In infrared spectroscopy, there are two common scales commonly used, wavelength in um, and energy in cm-1.
CO2 has a relatively weak weak absorption band at 15 um is officially given as 665 cm-1. It did not take people long to unofficially round that up to 666 cm-1. 666 is the mark of the Beast and therefor CO2 is the molecule of the Beast. (Interesting that the weak line at 666 cm-1 is the one that all the fuss is about)
And now you know.
In critical editions of the New Testament, it’s noted that some manuscripts have 616 as the Number of the Beast. 6/6/16 has both variants!
Irenaeus of Lyons decided on the change, probably because of a previous association of 666 with the Sun and God.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Number_of_the_Beast#616
The sum of the first 144 digits of pi is 666.
Oh noes! We hit an arbitrary number which is significant only due to some quirk of our base digit!. If only we had had the foresight to choose a different arbitrary number then things would have been better…
If only we had just 8 fingers instead of ten, then the psychological breaking point wouldn’t be reached until 620 ppm. Oh well.
I see where the error is they counted the thumbs and not just the fingers.
“CSIRO fellow Dr Paul Fraser has earmarked June 6”
CSIRO,,, hmmm. I recall hearing something about impending “LAYOFF” there.
Is he going on about CO2 and June 6 because that’s when the first of the “pink slips” go out.
I can dream right?
michael
“To put the 400ppm into perspective, Dr Fraser said if you stood near a highway with cars going past, you could be hit with 500ppm of CO2.”
Who cares!? If the person standing next to you on the street or wherever exhales in your general direction, you could be hit with 40,000ppm of CO2, so big deal! Sometimes the things people get alarmed about make me laugh.
They seek it here, They seek it there,
Those Alarmists seek it everywhere.
Is it in the Sky? — Is it in the Sea?
That damned elusive Delta Tee….
For they are dedicated followers of fashion…
(with apologies to Baroness Orczy, and of course, the Kinks)
L. O. L. – eh!
There is only one tipping point involved. It is the point at which the global warmers tip their glasses to their lips so that whatever they drink causes them to hallucinate.